Thursday, December 18, 2008

Part III

Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service

50 CFR Part 17 Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Findings on Petitions To List Penguin Species as Threatened or Endangered Under the Endangered Species Act; Proposed Rules

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DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR • Federal eRulemaking Portal: http:// within 12 months following receipt of www.regulations.gov. Follow the the petition on whether the requested Fish and Wildlife Service instructions for submitting comments. action is warranted, not warranted, or • U.S. mail or hand-delivery: Public warranted but precluded by higher- 50 CFR Part 17 Comments Processing, Attn: [FWS–R9– priority listing actions (this finding is [FWS–R9–IA–2008–0069; 96000–1671– IA–2008–0069]; Division of Policy and referred to as the ‘‘12-month finding’’). 0000–B6] Directives Management; U.S. Fish and Section 4(b)(3)(C) of the Act requires Wildlife Service; 4401 N. Fairfax Drive, that a finding of warranted but RIN 1018–AV73 Suite 222; Arlington, VA 22203. precluded for petitioned species should We will not accept comments by be treated as having been resubmitted Endangered and Threatened Wildlife e-mail or fax. We will post all comments on the date of the warranted but and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a on http://www.regulations.gov. This precluded finding, and is, therefore, Petition To List Four Penguin Species generally means that we will post any subject to a new finding within 1 year as Threatened or Endangered Under personal information you provide us and subsequently thereafter until we the Endangered Species Act and (see the Public Comments Solicited take action on a proposal to list or Proposed Rule To List the Southern section below for more information). withdraw our original finding. The Rockhopper Penguin in the Campbell Supporting Documents for 12-Month Service publishes an annual notice of Plateau Portion of Its Range Finding: Supporting documentation we resubmitted petition findings (annual AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, used in preparing this finding is notice) for all foreign species for which Interior. available for public inspection, by listings were previously found to be ACTION: Proposed rule and notice of 12- appointment, during normal business warranted but precluded. In this notice, we announce a 12- month petition finding. hours at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Scientific month finding on the petition to list SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and Authority, 4401 N. Fairfax Drive, Room four penguins: southern rockhopper Wildlife Service (Service), announce a 110, Arlington, VA 22203; telephone penguin, northern rockhopper penguin, 12-month finding on a petition to list 703–358–1708; facsimile 703–358–2276. macaroni penguin, and emperor four species of penguins as threatened Please submit any new information, penguin. We will announce the 12- or endangered under the Endangered materials, comments, or questions month findings for the African penguin Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act). concerning this finding to the above (Spheniscus demersus), yellow-eyed After a thorough review of all available address. penguin (Megadyptes antipodes), white- flippered penguin (Eudyptula minor scientific and commercial information, FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: we find that the petitioned action for the albosignata), Fiordland crested penguin Pamela Hall, Branch Chief, Division of (Eudyptes pachyrhynchus), Humboldt Campbell Plateau portion of the range of Scientific Authority, U.S. Fish and the New Zealand/Australia Distinct penguin (Spheniscus humboldti), and Wildlife Service, 4401 N. Fairfax Drive, erect-crested penguin (Eudyptes Population Segment (DPS) of the Room 110, Arlington, VA 22203; southern rockhopper penguin (Eudyptes sclateri) in one or more separate Federal telephone 703–358–1708; facsimile Register notice(s). chrysocome) is warranted, and we 703–358–2276. If you use a propose to list this species as threatened telecommunications device for the deaf Previous Federal Actions under the Act in the Campbell Plateau (TDD), call the Federal Information On November 29, 2006, the Service portion of its range. This proposal, if Relay Service (FIRS) at 800–877–8339. received a petition from the Center for made final, would extend the Act’s SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Biological Diversity to list 12 penguin protection to this species in that portion species under the Act: Emperor Background of its range. In addition, we find that penguin, southern rockhopper penguin, listing under the Act is not warranted Section 4(b)(3)(A) of the Act (16 northern rockhopper penguin, for the remainder of the range of the U.S.C. 1533(b)(3)(A)) requires the Fiordland crested penguin, snares southern rockhopper penguin and Service to make a finding known as a crested penguin (Eudyptes robustus), throughout all or any portion of the ‘‘90-day finding,’’ on whether a petition erect-crested penguin, macaroni range for the northern rockhopper to add, remove, or reclassify a species penguin, royal penguin (Eudyptes penguin (Eudyptes moseleyi), macaroni from the list of endangered or schlegeli), white-flippered penguin, penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus), and threatened species has presented yellow-eyed penguin, African penguin, emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). substantial information indicating that and Humboldt penguin. Among them, DATES: We made the finding announced the requested action may be warranted. the ranges of the 12 penguin species in this document on December 18, 2008. To the maximum extent practicable, the include Antarctica, Argentina, We will accept comments and finding shall be made within 90 days Australian Territory Islands, Chile, information on the proposed rule following receipt of the petition and French Territory Islands, Namibia, New received or postmarked on or before published promptly in the Federal Zealand, Peru, South Africa, and United February 17, 2009. We must receive Register. If the Service finds that the Kingdom Territory Islands. The petition requests for public hearings on the petition has presented substantial is clearly identified as such, and proposed rule, in writing, at the address information indicating that the contains detailed information on the shown in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION requested action may be warranted natural history, biology, status, and CONTACT section by February 2, 2009. (referred to as a positive finding), distribution of each of the 12 species. It ADDRESSES: Comments on Proposed section 4(b)(3)(A) of the Act requires the also contains information on what the Rule: If you wish to comment on the Service to commence a status review of petitioner reported as potential threats proposed rule to list the southern the species if one has not already been to the species from climate change and rockhopper penguin in the Campbell initiated under the Service’s internal changes to the marine environment, Plateau portion of its range, you may candidate assessment process. In commercial fishing activities, submit comments by one of the addition, section 4(b)(3)(B) of the Act contaminants and pollution, guano following methods: requires the Service to make a finding extraction, habitat loss, hunting,

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nonnative predator species, and other and diminished sea ice’’ on penguin anywhere within the species’ range. If factors. The petition also discusses food availability and stated that this has we determine they are, then we evaluate existing regulatory mechanisms and the led to population declines in southern whether these stressors are causing perceived inadequacies to protect these rockhopper, Humboldt, African, and population-level declines that are species. emperor penguins. These letters stated significant to the determination of the In the Federal Register of July 11, that the emperor penguin colony at conservation status of the species. If so, 2007 (72 FR 37695), we published a 90- Point Geologie has declined more than we describe it as a ‘‘threat.’’ In the day finding in which we determined 50 percent due to global warming and subsequent finding section, we then that the petition presented substantial provided information on krill declines consider each of the stressors and scientific or commercial information to in large areas of the Southern Ocean. threats, individually and cumulatively, indicate that listing 10 species of They stated that continued warming and make a determination with respect penguins as endangered or threatened over the coming decades will to whether the species is endangered or may be warranted: Emperor penguin, dramatically affect Antarctica, the sub- threatened according to the statutory southern rockhopper penguin, northern Antarctic islands, the Southern Ocean standard. rockhopper penguin, Fiordland crested and the penguins dependent on these The term ‘‘threatened species’’ means penguin, erect-crested penguin, ecosystems for survival. A small number any species (or subspecies or, for macaroni penguin, white-flippered of general letters and e-mails drew vertebrates, distinct population penguin, yellow-eyed penguin, African particular attention to the conservation segments) that is likely to become an penguin, and Humboldt penguin. status of the southern rockhopper endangered species within the Furthermore, we determined that the penguin in the Falkland Islands. foreseeable future throughout all or a petition did not provide substantial Twenty submissions provided significant portion of its range. The Act scientific or commercial information detailed, substantive information on one does not define the term ‘‘foreseeable indicating that listing the snares crested or more of the 10 species. These future.’’ For the purpose of this notice, penguin and the royal penguin as included information from the we define the ‘‘foreseeable future’’ to be threatened or endangered species may governments, or government-affiliated the extent to which, given the amount be warranted. scientists, of Argentina, Australia, and substance of available data, we can Following the publication of our 90- Namibia, New Zealand, Peru, South anticipate events or effects, or reliably day finding on this petition, we initiated Africa, and the United Kingdom, from extrapolate threat trends, such that we a status review to determine if listing scientists, from 18 members of the U.S. reasonably believe that reliable each of the 10 species is warranted, and Congress, and from one non- predictions can be made concerning the opened a 60-day public comment period governmental organization (the original future as it relates to the status of the to allow all interested parties an petitioner). species at issue. opportunity to provide information on On December 3, 2007, the Service the status of the 10 species of penguins. received a 60-day Notice of Intent To Species Information and Factors The public comment period closed on Sue from the Center for Biological Affecting the Species September 10, 2007. In addition, we Diversity (CBD). CBD filed a complaint Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533), attended the International Penguin against the Department of the Interior on and its implementing regulations at 50 Conference in Hobart, Tasmania, February 27, 2008, for failure to make a CFR part 424, set forth the procedures Australia, a quadrennial meeting of 12-month finding on the petition. On for adding species to the Federal Lists penguin scientists from September 3–7, September 8, 2008, the Service entered of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife 2007 (during the open public comment into a Settlement Agreement with CBD, and Plants. A species may be period), to gather information and to in which we agreed to submit to the determined to be an endangered or ensure that experts were aware of the Federal Register 12-month findings for threatened species due to one or more status review and the open comment the 10 species of penguins, including of the five factors described in section period. We also consulted with other the five penguin taxa that are the subject 4(a)(1) of the Act. The five factors are: agencies and range countries in an effort of this proposed rule, on or before (A) The present or threatened to gather the best available scientific December 19, 2008. destruction, modification, or and commercial information on these We base our findings on a review of curtailment of its habitat or range; (B) species. the best scientific and commercial overutilization for commercial, During the public comment period, information available, including all recreational, scientific, or educational we received over 4,450 submissions information received during the public purposes; (C) disease or predation; (D) from the public, concerned comment period. Under section the inadequacy of existing regulatory governmental agencies, the scientific 4(b)(3)(B) of the Act, we are required to mechanisms; and (E) other natural or community, industry, and other make a finding as to whether listing manmade factors affecting its continued interested parties. Approximately 4,324 each of the 10 species of penguins is existence. e-mails and 31 letters received by U.S. warranted, not warranted, or warranted mail or facsimile were part of one letter- but precluded by higher priority listing Southern Rockhopper Penguin and writing campaign and were actions. Northern Rockhopper Penguins substantively identical. Each letter supported listing under the Act, Introduction Taxonomy included a statement identifying ‘‘the In this notice, for each of the four Rockhopper penguins are among the threat to penguins from global warming, species addressed, we first provide smallest of the world’s penguins, industrial fishing, oil spills and other background information on the biology averaging 20 inches (in) (52 centimeters factors,’’ and listed the 10 species of the species. Next, we address each of (cm)) in length and 6.6 pounds (lbs) (3 included in the Service’s 90-day the categories of factors listed in section kilograms (kg)) in weight. They are the finding. A further group of 73 letters 4(a)(1) of the Act. For each factor, we most widespread of the crested included the same information plus first determine whether any stressors penguins (genus Eudyptes), and are so information concerning the impact of appear to be causing declines in named because of the way they hop ‘‘abnormally warm ocean temperatures numbers of the species at issue from boulder to boulder when moving

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around their rocky colonies. We conclude that, while both up body fat reserves in preparation for Rockhopper penguins are found on analyses have merit, the split into a their annual molt. The molt lasts for islands from near the Antarctic Polar northern and southern species on the around 25 days, and the birds then Front to near the Subtropical basis of both genetic and morphological abandon the breeding site. They spend Convergence in the South Atlantic and differences represents the best available the winter feeding at sea, prior to Indian Oceans (Marchant and Higgins science. On the basis of our review, we returning the following spring 1990, p. 183). accept the BirdLife International (Marchant and Higgins 1990, p. 185). The taxonomy of the rockhopper treatment of the rockhopper penguins as The range of southern and northern two species: The northern rockhopper complex is contentious. Formerly rockhopper penguins includes breeding penguin (E. moseleyi) and the southern treated as three subspecies (Marchant habitat on temperate and sub-Antarctic rockhopper penguin (E. chrysocome). and Higgins 1990, p. 182), recent papers islands around the Southern suggested that these should be treated as Life History Hemisphere and marine foraging areas. two species (Jouventin et al. 2006, pp. In the breeding season, these marine 3,413–3,423) or three species (Banks et The life histories of northern and southern rockhopper penguins are foraging areas may lie within as little as al. 2006, pp. 61–67). 6 miles (mi) (10 kilometers (km)) of the Jouventin et al. (2006, pp. 3,413– similar. Breeding begins in early October (the austral spring) when males colony (as at the Crozet Archipelago in 3,423), following up on recorded the Indian Ocean), as distant as 97 mi differences in breeding phenology, song arrive at the breeding site a few days before females. Breeding takes place as (157 km) (as at the Prince Edward characteristics, and head ornaments soon as the females arrive, and two eggs Islands in the Indian Ocean), or for male used as mating signals, conducted are laid 4–5 days apart in early rockhoppers foraging during the genetic analysis between northern November. The first egg laid is typically incubation stage at the Falkland Islands subtropical rockhopper penguins and smaller than the second, 2.8 versus 3.9 in the Southwest Atlantic, as much as southern sub-Antarctic penguins using ounces (oz) (80 versus 110 grams (g)), 289 mi (466 km) away (Sagar et al. 2005, the Subtropical Convergence, a major and is the first to hatch. Incubation lasts p. 79; Putz et al. 2003b, p. 141). ecological boundary for marine about 33 days and is divided into three Foraging ranges vary according to the organisms, as the dividing line between roughly equal shifts. During the first 10- geographic, geologic, and oceanographic them. Their results supported the day shift, both parents are in location of the breeding sites and their separation of E. chrysocome into two attendance. Then, the male leaves to proximity to sea floor features (such as species, the southern rockhopper (E. feed while the female incubates during the continental slope and its margins or chrysocome) and the northern the second shift. The male returns to the sub-Antarctic slope) and rockhopper (E. moseleyi). take on the third shift. He generally oceanographic features (such as the Another recently published paper in remains for the duration of incubation polar frontal zone or the Falkland the journal Polar Biology confirmed that and afterward to brood the chicks while current) (Sagar et al. 2005, pp. 79–80). there is more than one species of the female leaves to forage and returns Winter at-sea foraging areas are less rockhopper penguins. Banks et al. to feed the chicks. Such a system of well-documented, but penguins from (2006, pp. 61–67) compared the genetic extended shift duration requires lengthy the Staten Island breeding colony at the distances between the three rockhopper fasts for both parents, but allows them tip of South America dispersed over a subspecies and compared them with to forage farther afield than would be range of 501,800 square miles (mi2) (1.3 such sister species as macaroni the case if they had a daily change-over. million square kilometers (km2)) penguins. Banks et al. (2006, pp. 61–67) The newly hatched chicks may have to covering polar, sub-polar, and temperate suggested that three rockhopper wait up to a week before the female waters in oceanic regions of the Atlantic subspecies—southern rockhopper returns with their first feed. During this and Pacific as well as shelf waters (Putz (currently E. chrysocome chrysocome), period, chicks are able to survive on et al. 2006, p. 735) and traveled up to eastern rockhopper (currently E. existing yolk reserves, after which they 1,242 mi (2,000 km) from the colony. chrysocome filholi), and northern begin receiving regular feedings of rockhopper (currently E. chrysocome around 5 oz (150 g) in weight. By the Southern Rockhopper Penguin moseleyi)—should be split into three end of the 25 days of brooding, chicks Distribution species. are receiving regular feedings averaging BirdLife International (2007, p. 1) has around 1 lb 5 oz (600 g). By this stage The southern rockhopper penguin reviewed these two papers and made they are able to leave the nest and (Eudyptes chrysocome) is widely the decision to adopt, for the purposes cre`che with other chicks, allowing both distributed around the Southern Ocean, of their continued compilation of adults to forage to meet the chicks’ breeding on many sub-Antarctic islands information on the status of birds, the increasing demands for food (Marchant in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans conclusion of Jouventin et al. (2006, p. and Higgins 1990, p. 190). (Shirihai 2002, p. 71). The species 3,419) that there are two species of Northern rockhopper penguins and breeds on the Falkland Islands (United rockhopper penguin. In doing so, they birds in the eastern colonies of southern Kingdom, Argentina), Penguin and noted that the proposed splitting of an rockhopper penguins typically rear only Staten Islands (Argentina) at the eastern rockhopper species from E. one of the two chicks. However, southern tip of South America, and chrysocome has been rejected on southern rockhopper penguins near the islands of southern Chile. Farther to the account of weak morphological Falkland Islands are capable of rearing east, the southern rockhopper penguin differentiations between the both chicks to fledging when conditions breeds on Prince Edward Islands (South circumpolar populations south of the are favorable (Guinard et al. 1998, p. Africa); Crozet and Kerguelen Islands Subtropical Convergence (Banks et al. 226). In spite of this difference, southern (French Southern Territories); Heard, 2006, p. 67). Furthermore those two rockhopper penguins average successful McDonald, and Macquarie Islands groups are more closely related to each breeding of one chick per pair annually (Australia); and Campbell, Auckland, other in terms of genetic distance than for the colony as a whole. Chicks fledge and Antipodes Islands (New Zealand) either is to the northern rockhopper at around 10 weeks of age, and adults (BirdLife International 2007, pp. 2–3; penguin (Banks et al. 2006, p. 65). then spend 20–25 days at sea building Woehler 1993, pp. 58–61).

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Population estimates of 175,000 breeding pairs at Marion Island (Crawford et al. 2003, reported in Woehler (1993, p. 61), but it p. 487), presumably from a decrease in Falkland Islands is unclear whether this reflects the availability of crustaceans or At the Falkland Islands, between the population increases or more competition with other predators for census in 1932–33 and the census in comprehensive surveys. In the Chilean food (Crawford et al. 2003, p. 496). 1995–96, there was a decline of more archipelago, Kirkwood et al. (2007, p. Winter grounds of southern rockhopper than 80 percent, with an overall rate of 266) found no substantive evidence for penguins are not known. However, over- decline of 2.75 percent per year (Putz et overall changes in the number of wintering conditions, which are al. 2003a, p. 174). Reports of even penguins between the early 1980s and reflected in the condition of birds greater declines (Bingham 1998, p. 223) 2002, although one colony in the region arriving to breed, influence the have been revised after re-analysis of the (the Isla Recalada colony, a historical proportion of adults that breed in the original 1930’s census data, which breeding site) declined from 10,000 following summer and the outcome of recorded an estimated 1.5 million pairs in 1989 to none in 2005 (Oehler breeding (Crawford et al. 2006, p. 185). southern rockhopper breeding pairs et al. 2007, p. 505). On the Argentine Crozet and Kerguelen Islands (Putz et al. 2003a, p. 174). The census side, Schiavini (2000, p. 290) stated that in 2000–01 of 272,000 breeding pairs the numbers at Staten Island are stable Jouventin et al. (2006, p. 3,417) indicated stable numbers since the mid- or increasing, perhaps as a result of a referenced 1984 data from French 1990s (297,000 breeding pairs) in the flux of birds from the Falkland Islands. Indian Ocean territories that showed Falkland Islands (Clausen and Huin In summary, the overall number of 264,000 breeding pairs at Crozet Islands 2003, p. 389), although further declines southern rockhopper penguins at the and 200,000 breeding pairs at Kerguelen since then (Putz et al. 2006, p. 742), and Falklands and the southern tip of South Island. These figures did not agree with a lower figure of 210,000 breeding pairs America is estimated at 765,000 those presented by Woehler (1993, pp. in 2005–06, have been cited (Kirkwood breeding pairs distributed as follows: 59–60) and, if accurate, represent an et al. 2007, p. 266). Falkland Islands, 27 percent; Argentina, increase of about 25 percent for the The declines of southern rockhoppers 24 percent; and Chile, 48 percent. Based Crozet Islands and over 100 percent for in the Falkland Islands appear not to on the available information, there does Kerguelen. We are not aware of reported have been gradual. Clausen and Huin not appear to be a declining trend in declines at the Crozet and Kerguelen (2003, p. 394) state that ‘‘circumstantial southern rockhopper penguin numbers Islands. evidence’’ suggests that in the early on the southern tip of South America. 1980s, there were no more than 500,000 Heard, McDonald, and Macquarie Although there may have been Islands pairs, a decline of 66 percent since the population increases in the region based 1930s. By the mid-1990s, the total on the reported population numbers, it Numbers at Heard and McDonald decline had reached 80 percent. A mass is unclear if these higher numbers Islands (Australia) are reported as small, mortality event in the 1985–86 breeding reflect true increases in numbers, more with an ‘‘order of magnitude estimate’’ season killed thousands of penguins and comprehensive surveys, or movement of of greater than 10,000 pairs for Heard was linked to starvation before molt other penguins from the Falkland Island and greater than 10 pairs for (Putz et al. 2003a, p. 174; Keyme et al. Islands. McDonald (Woehler 1993, p. 60). No 2001, p. 168). In summary, although information has been reported on trends there has been a long-term decline in Prince Edward Islands in numbers in these areas. Order of numbers at the Falkland Islands, Two species of Eudyptes penguins magnitude estimates at Macquarie numbers have not declined at a breed at Marion Island (46.9 degrees (°) Island (Australia) reported 100,000– consistent rate, but rather, there have South (S) latitude, 37.9° East (E) 300,000 pairs in the early 1980s been periodic declines over a long longitude), one of two islands in the (Woehler 1993, p. 60; Taylor 2000, p. period of time. As mentioned below, sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands 54). The 2006 Management Plan for the Schiavini (2000, p. 290) suggested that group in the southwest Indian Ocean. Macquarie Island Nature Reserve and Falkland Island birds may be dispersing They are the southern rockhopper World Heritage Area reported that the to Staten Island, potentially contributing penguin (E. chrysocome) and the total number of southern rockhopper to the stable or increasing numbers macaroni penguin (E. chrysolophus). penguins in this area may be as high as there. For southern rockhopper penguins, the 100,000 breeding pairs, but estimates numbers of birds estimated to breed at from 2006–07 indicate 32,000–43,000 Southern Tip of South America Marion Island decreased by 61 percent breeding pairs at Macquarie Island In the region of the southern tip of from 173,000 pairs in 1994–95 to 67,000 (BirdLife International 2008b, p. 2). South America, large numbers of pairs in 2001–02 (Crawford et al. 2003, Given the large range in the earlier southern rockhopper penguins are p. 490). The number of southern categorical estimate, we cannot evaluate reported with approximately 180,000 rockhopper penguins at nearby Prince whether the more recent estimate breeding pairs in southern Argentina at Edward Island appears to have been represents a decline in numbers or a Staten Island (Schiavini 2000, p. 286; stable since the 1980s with 35,000– more precise estimate. Kirkwood et al. 2007, p. 266), 134,000 45,000 pairs present (Crawford et al. breeding pairs at Isla Noir (Oehler 2005, 2003, p. 496). The decreases at Marion Campbell, Auckland, and Antipodes p. 7), 86,400 breeding pairs at Ildefonso Island are thought to result from poor Islands Archipelago, and 132,721 breeding pairs breeding success, with fledging rates In New Zealand territory, southern at Diego Ramirez Archipelago lower than required for the colonies to rockhopper numbers at Campbell Island (Kirkwood et al. 2007, p. 265). remain in equilibrium; a decrease in the declined by 94 percent between the Kirkwood et al. (2007, p. 266) mass of males and females on arrival at early 1940s and 1985 from concluded that numbers for the the colony for breeding; and low mass approximately 800,000 breeding pairs to southern tip of South America are of chicks at fledging (Crawford et al. 51,500 (Cunningham and Moors 1994, approximately 555,000 breeding pairs. 2003, p. 496). These changes are p. 34). The majority of the decline These relatively recent estimates are attributed to an inadequate supply of appears to have coincided with a period substantially larger than previous food for southern rockhopper penguins of warmed sea surface temperatures

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between 1946 and 1956. It is widely Climate-Related Changes in the Marine pattern of the penguin decline (from inferred that warmer waters most likely Environment 800,000 breeding pairs in the early affected southern rockhopper penguins Reports of major decreases in 1940s to 51,500 pairs in 1985) to through changes in the abundance, southern rockhopper penguin numbers patterns of sea surface temperature availability, and distribution of their have been linked to sea surface change. The authors concluded that food supply (Cunningham and Moors temperature changes and other apparent drastic southern rockhopper penguin 1994, p. 34); recent research suggests or assumed oceanographic or prey shifts declines were related to increased sea they may have had to work harder to in the vicinity of southern rockhopper surface temperature changes at find the same food (Thompson and penguin breeding colonies or their Campbell Island. They found that peaks Sagar 2002, p. 11). According to wintering grounds. Actual empirical in temperature were related to the standard photographic monitoring, evidence of changes has been difficult to periods of largest decline in numbers numbers in most colonies at Campbell compile, and conclusions of causality within colonies, in particular in 1948– 49 and 1953–54. One study colony Island continued to decline from 1985 for observations at one site are often rebounded in cooler temperatures in the to the mid-1990s (Taylor 2000, p. 54), inferred from data from other studies at 1960s; however, with temperature other sites, which may or may not be although the extent of such declines has stabilization at higher levels (mean 49.5 pertinent. In the most cited study, not been quantified in the literature. °F (9.7 °C)) in the 1970s, declines Cunningham and Moors (1994, pp. 27– The New Zealand Department of continued. Colony sizes have continued 36) concluded that drastic southern Conservation (DOC) provided to decline into the 1990s (Taylor 2000, rockhopper penguin declines were preliminary information from a 2007 p. 54), and preliminary survey data related to increased sea surface Campbell Island survey team that ‘‘the indicate that numbers at Campbell temperature changes at Campbell Island population is still in decline’’ (D. Island continue to decline (Houston Houston 2008, p. 1), but quantitative in New Zealand. In another study, 2008, p. 1). analysis of these data have not yet been Crawford et al. (2003, p. 496) Cunningham and Moors (1994, p. 34) completed. At the Auckland Islands, a hypothesized altered distribution or concluded that warmer waters most survey in 1990 found 10 colonies decreased abundance of marine prey at likely affected the diet of the Campbell produced an estimate of 2,700–3,600 Marion Island, where mean sea surface Island southern rockhopper penguins. temperature increased by 2.5 degrees breeding pairs of southern rockhopper In the absence of data on the 1940’s diet Fahrenheit (°F) (1.4 degrees Celsius (°C)) penguins (Cooper 1992, p. 66). This was of Campbell Island southern rockhopper between 1949 and 2002, as a factor in a decrease from 1983, when 5,000– penguins, the authors compared the a decline of southern rockhopper 10,000 pairs were counted (Taylor 2000, 1980’s diet of the species at Campbell penguin numbers by 61 percent during p. 54). There has been a large decline at Island to southern rockhopper penguins that period (Crawford and Cooper 2003, elsewhere. They found the Campbell Antipodes Islands from 50,000 breeding p. 415). Clausen and Huin (2003, p. pairs in 1978 to 3,400 pairs in 1995 Island penguins eating primarily fish— 394), in discussing the factors that may southern blue whiting (Micromesisteus (Taylor 2000, p. 54). There is no more be responsible for large-scale declines in recent data for Auckland or Antipodes australis), dwarf codling (Austrophycis this species at the Falkland Islands marginata), and southern hake Islands (D. Houston 2008, p. 1). since the 1930s (and especially in the (Merluccius australis)—while elsewhere Other Status Classifications mid-1980s), found the most plausible southern rockhopper penguins were explanation to be changes in sea surface reported to eat mainly euphausiid The IUCN (International Union for temperatures, which could in turn affect crustaceans (krill) and smaller amounts Conservation of Nature) Red List the available food supply (Clausen and of fish and squid. Based on this classifies the southern rockhopper Huin 2003, p. 394). Extreme El Nin˜ o- comparison of different areas, the penguin as ‘Vulnerable’ due to rapid like warming of surface waters occurred authors concluded that euphausiids left population declines, which ‘‘appear to during the 1985–86 period when the the Campbell Island area when have worsened in recent years.’’ most severe decline occurred at the temperatures changed, forcing the Falkland Islands (Boersma 1987, p. 96; southern rockhopper penguins to adopt Summary of Factors Affecting the Keyme et al. 2001, p. 168). None of an apparently atypical, and presumably Species these authors cites historical fisheries less nutritious, fish diet. The authors Factor A: The Present or Threatened data to corroborate the hypothesis that concluded that this led to lower Destruction, Modification, or prey abundance has been affected by departure weights of chicks and Curtailment of Its Habitat or Range changes in sea surface temperatures. contributed to adult declines As noted above, changes in (Cunningham and Moors 1994, p. 34). Terrestrial Habitat oceanographic conditions and their Subsequent research, however, has possible impact on prey have been cited not supported the theory that southern There are few reports of destruction, in reports of southern rockhopper rockhopper penguins at Campbell Island modification, or curtailment of the penguin declines around the world switched prey as their ‘‘normal’’ terrestrial habitat of the southern (Cunningham and Moors 1994, pp. 27– euphausiid prey moved to cooler waters rockhopper penguin. Analyses of large- 36; Crawford et al. 2003, p. 496; (Cunningham and Moors 1994, pp. 34– scale declines of southern rockhopper Crawford and Cooper 2003, p. 415; 35). This hypothesis has been tested penguins have uniformly ruled out that Clausen and Huin 2003, p. 394). We through stable isotope studies, which impacts to the terrestrial habitat have examine the case of Campbell Island in can be used to extract historical dietary been a limiting factor to the species depth in the following paragraphs, since information from bird tissues (e.g., (Cunningham and Moors 1994, p. 34; this provides the most studied example. feathers). In analyses of samples from Keyme et al. 2001, pp. 159–169; Clausen At Campbell Island, a 94-percent the late 1800s to the present at Campbell and Huin 2003, p. 394), and we have no decrease in southern rockhopper Island and Antipodes Islands, reason to believe threats to the penguin numbers occurred between the Thompson and Sagar (2002, p. 11) terrestrial habitat will emerge in the early 1940s and 1985. Cunningham and found no evidence of a shift in southern foreseeable future. Moors (1994, pp. 27–36) compared the rockhopper penguin diet during the

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period of decline. They concluded that the 19th and 20th centuries (Hilton et al. westerly winds in the Atlantic, with southern rockhopper penguins did not 2006, p. 621). While this top-down prey failure leading to a starvation event switch to a less suitable prey, but that theory may explain the regional shift (Boersma 1987, p. 96; Keyme et al. 2001, overall marine productivity and the toward reduced primary productivity, it p. 168). The severe El Nin˜ o event of carrying capacity of the marine does not explain the decrease in 1996–97 has also been cited as a ecosystem declined beginning in the abundance of food at specific penguin possible factor in the decline and 1940s. With food abundance declining breeding and foraging areas. disappearance of the small Isla Recalada or food moving farther offshore or into Hilton et al. (2006, p. 621) concluded colony in Chile, with the suggestion that deeper water, according to these that considerably more development of response to this climatic event may have authors, the southern rockhopper the links between isotopic monitoring of been one factor leading birds at this penguins maintained their diet over the rockhopper penguins and the analysis of colony to disperse to other areas such as long timescale, but were unable to find larger-scale oceanographic data is the large Isla Noir colony 75 mi (125 enough food in the less productive needed to understand effects of human km) away (Oehler et al. 2007, pp. 502, marine ecosystem (Thompson and Sagar activities on the sub-Antarctic marine 505). 2002, p. 12). ecosystem and the links between In other local-scale observations, Hilton et al. (2006, pp. 611–625) rockhopper penguin demography, studies of winter behavior of southern expanded the study of carbon isotope ecology, and environment. rockhopper penguins foraging from ratios in southern and northern Meteorologically, the events described colonies at Staten Island, Argentina, rockhopper penguin feathers to most for Campbell Island from the 1940s until indicated that penguins respond breeding areas, except those at the 1985, including the period of oceanic behaviorally to different oceanographic Falkland Islands and the tip of South warming, occurred after a record cool conditions such as seasonal differences America, to look for global trends that period in the New Zealand region in sea surface temperatures by changing might help explain the declines between 1900 and 1935, the coldest foraging strategies. Even with such observed at Campbell Island. They period since record-keeping began behavioral plasticity, differences in found no clear global-scale explanation (Cunningham and Moors 1994, p. 35). winter foraging conditions (for example, for large spatial and temporal-scale These historical temperature changes between an average and a cold year) led rockhopper penguin declines. While have been attributed to fluctuations in to differences in adult survival, return they found general support for lower the position of the Antarctic Polar Front rates to breeding colonies, and breeding primary productivity in the ecosystems caused by changes in the westerly-wind success between years (Rey et al. 2007, in which rockhopper penguins feed, belt (Cunningham and Moors 1994, p. p. 285). there were significant differences 35). Photographic evidence suggests that Changes in the marine environment between sites. There was evidence of a southern rockhopper penguin numbers and possible shifts in food abundance or shift in diet to lower trophic levels over may have been significantly expanding distribution in the marine environment time and in warm years, but the data did as the early 1900s cool period came to have been cited as leading to historical not support the idea that the shift an end (Cunningham and Moors 1994, and present-day declines in three areas toward lower primary productivity p. 33) and just before the rapid decrease within the distribution of southern reflected in the diet resulted from an in numbers. rockhopper penguins around the overall trend of rising sea temperatures Without longer-term data sets on world—the Falkland Islands in the (Hilton et al. 2006, p. 620). No southern rockhopper fluctuations in South Atlantic (80-percent decline), detectable relationship between carbon numbers of penguins at Campbell Island Marion Island in the Indian Ocean (61- isotope ratios and annual mean sea and longer temperature data records at percent), and the New Zealand sub- surface temperatures was found (Hilton a scale appropriate to evaluating Antarctic islands (Campbell Island (94- et al. 2006, p. 620). impacts on this particular breeding percent), Auckland Island (50-percent), In the absence of conclusive evidence colony, it is difficult to draw and the Antipodes Islands (93-percent)). for sea surface temperature changes as conclusions on the situation described While southern rockhopper penguin an explanation for reduced primary there. There are even fewer data for numbers have declined in some areas, productivity, Hilton et al. (2006, p. 621) Auckland and Antipodes Islands. there are significant areas of the suggested that historical top-down For now, local-scale observations may southern rockhopper range effects in the food chain might have be of more utility in explaining mass (representing about one million pairs) caused a reduction in phytoplankton declines of southern rockhopper where numbers have remained stable or growth rates. Reduced grazing pressure penguins. At the Falkland Islands, the increased. This indicates that the resulting from the large-scale removal of mass starvation event of 1985–86 severity and pervasiveness of these predators from the sub-Antarctic could coincided with a Pacific El Nin˜ o event, factors in the marine environment are have resulted in larger standing stocks and the unusually long and hot not uniform throughout the species’ of phytoplankton, which in turn could southern summer in the southwest range. For example, declines have been have led to lowered cell growth rates Atlantic was analogous to the Pacific El reported at the Falkland Islands; (which would be reflected in isotope Nin˜ o (Boersma 1987, p. 96; Keyme et al. however, nearby colonies at the ratios), with no effect on overall 2001, p. 160). There was an influx of southern tip of South America appear to productivity of the system. Postulated warm water seabirds from the north, have increased and now represent 72 top-down effects on the ecosystem of indicating movement of warm water percent of southern rockhopper southern rockhopper penguins, which into the area, and it was hypothesized abundance in the larger south Atlantic occurred in the time period before the that warm weather negatively affected and southeast Pacific region. Similarly, warming first noted in the original the growth and presence of food in a at the Prince Edward Islands, declines Cunningham and Moors (1994, p. 34) manner similar to what occurs when the have been documented at Marion study, are the hunting of pinniped warm El Nin˜ o current extends Island; however, colonies at nearby populations to near extinction in the southwards off the Pacific coast of Peru. Prince Edward Island have remained 18th and 19th centuries and the Perturbations of upwellings essential to stable. As noted above, in large areas of subsequent severe exploitation of baleen sustaining the normal food chain appear the Indian Ocean, including the French whale (Balaenopteridae) populations in to have been caused by unusually strong Indian Ocean territories at Kerguelen

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and Crozet Islands, large numbers are historical Southern Ocean deep-water information for the Australian stable or increasing. temperatures to illustrate an overall Macquarie Island colonies is much less This difference in trends in locations warming trend. However, while the certain, given the poor quality of the within the species’ range, and the scale of measurement is too large to baseline estimate at Macquarie. Based limitation of declines to regional areas, draw any conclusions at a local-scale, in on our review of the best available illustrates that while temperature the region of the New Zealand/Australia information (see above), we conclude changes in the marine environment portion of the species’ range, the figure that changes to the marine environment, have been widely cited as an indicator provided appears to show that ocean which influence the southern of changing oceanographic conditions temperatures have decreased on average rockhopper penguin, have affected the for southern rockhopper penguins, there from the 1950s to the 1990s. Campbell Plateau, but their effects on is not a unitary explanation for Looking at the situation from the the Macquarie Ridge region are phenomena observed in the widely perspective of physical oceanography, unknown. In the absence of scattered breeding locations across the attempts to describe the relationship identification of other significant threat Southern Hemisphere. In fact, as between southern rockhopper penguin factors and in light of the best available illustrated for the most studied example population trends and trends in ocean scientific information indicating that at Campbell Island, a detailed analysis temperatures, based on large-scale prey availability, productivity, or sea of causality has so far led to further oceanographic observations of temperatures are affecting southern questions, rather than a narrowing down temperature trends in the Southern rockhopper penguins within the of answers. Nevertheless, in the absence Ocean, and to arrive at historical or Campbell Plateau, we find that changes of any major factors on land, the best predictive models of the impact of to the marine environment is a threat to available information indicates that temperature trends on penguins are the Campbell Plateau colonies of some change in the oceanographic equally difficult. Such analyses are southern rockhopper penguins at ecosystem has led to past declines in hampered by: (1) The fact that Campbell, Auckland, and Antipodes southern rockhopper penguins in some measurements of temperature and Islands. regions and has the potential to lead to temperature trends are provided at an While rockhopper penguin numbers future declines in southern rockhopper ocean-wide scale; (2) the measurement in certain areas of the species’ range penguin colonies in those regions of and averaging of temperatures over large have been affected by changes to the New Zealand. water bodies or depths, which do not marine environment, numbers in the Large-scale measurements show that allow analysis of impacts at any one site majority of the range are stable or temperature changes have been or region or allow explanation of increasing. This indicates that the occurring in the Southern Ocean since divergent trends between colonies in the severity and pervasiveness of stressors the 1960s. Overall, the upper ocean has same region; (3) lack of real-time data on in the marine environment are not warmed since the 1960s with dominant temperature and trends at biologically uniform throughout the species’ range, changes in the thick near-surface layers meaningful geographical scales in the and we have not identified sea- called ‘‘sub-Antarctic Mode waters,’’ vicinity of breeding or foraging habitat temperature data on an appropriate located just north of the Antarctic for penguins; and (4) absence of oceanographic scale to be able to Circumpolar Current (ACC) (Bindoff et consistent monitoring of southern identify broad-scale trends or to make al. 2007, p. 401). In mid-depth waters— rockhopper penguin abundance and predictions on future trends about 2,952 feet (ft) (900 meters (m))— demographic and biological parameters whether changes to the marine temperatures have increased throughout to relate to such oceanographic environment will affect southern most of the Southern Ocean, having measurements. We have insufficient rockhoppers penguins either across its risen 0.31 °F (0.17 °C) between the information to draw conclusions on range or within the New Zealand/ 1950s and 1980s (Gille 2002, p. 1,275). whether directional changes in ocean Australia region. However, the ocean temperature trends temperatures are affecting southern On this basis, we find that the present described are at too large a scale to rockhopper penguins throughout all of or threatened destruction, modification, relate meaningfully to the demographics their range. or curtailment of both its terrestrial and of the southern rockhopper penguins, We have examined areas of the range marine habitats is not a threat to the whether at any single penguin colony or of the southern rockhopper penguin southern rockhopper penguin breeding or foraging area, or to the where numbers have declined, such as throughout all of its range now or in the variation in trends in colonies around at Campbell Island and the Falkland future. the world at larger scales. We have Islands. At the same time, numbers in Factor B: Overutilization for noted above that attempts to ascribe the majority of the range of the southern Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or trends in rockhopper penguin numbers rockhopper penguin have remained Educational Purposes to large-scale sea-temperature changes stable or increased. For example, in the using biological measurements of region of the southern tip of South Despite the overall increase in southern rockhopper population and America, numbers have increased and southern rockhopper penguin numbers foraging parameters have been now represent 72 percent of southern in southern Chile, the Isla Recalada unsuccessful in revealing any causal rockhopper abundance in the larger colony—a historical breeding site— links. south Atlantic and southeast Pacific declined from 10,000 pairs in 1989 to Despite larger-scale conclusions that regions. At the Prince Edward Islands, none in 2005 (Oehler et al. 2007, p. Southern Ocean warming is occurring, declines at Marion Island have been 505). In attempting to explain this local we have not identified sea temperature accompanied by stability at nearby decline, Oehler et al. (2007, p. 505) cited data on an appropriate oceanographic Prince Edward Island. At Kerguelen and the collection of adult penguins for scale to evaluate either historical trends Crozet Islands, numbers are increasing export to zoological parks from 1984– or to make predictions on future trends or stable. 1992 as a disturbance that may have and whether they will affect southern Within the New Zealand/Australia caused adult penguins to move to other rockhoppers across the New Zealand/ portion of the species’ range, the New areas, but this has not been verified. The Australia region. For example, Gille Zealand islands have experienced authors also reported that between 1992 (2002, p. 1,276) presented a figure of severe declines; however, trend and 1997, in times of shortage of fish

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bait, local fishermen harvested adult Following the precipitous decline of (Taylor 2000, p. 55). Although it was southern rockhopper penguins at the southern rockhopper penguins at the suggested that introduced predators may Isla Recalada colony for bait for crab Falkland Islands in the 1985–86 affect breeding on Macquarie and pots (Oehler et al. 2007, p. 505), but we breeding season, examinations and full Kerguelen Islands (Ellis et al. 1998, p. have no information on the effect of this necropsies were carried out for a large 49), no information was provided to stressor in terms of numbers of number of individuals. Mortality was support this idea. individuals lost from the colony. primarily attributed to starvation. A In summary, based on our review of Collection for zoological parks is now large number of predisposing factors the best available information we find prohibited, and the species is not found were ruled out, such as anthropogenic that neither disease nor predation is a in trade (Ellis et al. 1998, p. 54). There factors (oiling, fish net mortality, threat to the southern rockhopper is no information that suggests this ban ingestion of plastic, trauma, or trapping penguin in any portion of its range, and will be lifted in the future. at sea or on breeding grounds) or natural no information is available that suggests Tourism and other human causes (heavy predation on or near this will change in the future. disturbance impacts are reported to breeding grounds, botulism at the Factor D: The Inadequacy of Existing have little effect on southern breeding grounds, or dinoflagellate Regulatory Mechanisms rockhopper penguins (BirdLife poisoning caused by red tides). Infectious diseases were considered in The majority of sub-Antarctic islands International 2007, p. 3). are under protected status. For example, In summary, although there is some depth, but no specific disease was identified (Keyme et al. 2001, p. 166). A all New Zealand sub-Antarctic islands evidence of historical and even are nationally protected and inscribed relatively recent take of southern secondary factor, ‘‘puffinosis,’’ caused ulcers on the feet of some young as the New Zealand Subantarctic Islands rockhopper penguins from the wild for World Heritage sites; human visitation human use, collection for zoological penguins, but no mortality was associated with these lesions (Keyme et of the islands is tightly restricted at all parks is no longer occurring, and other al. 2001, p. 167). Examination for sites where penguins occur (Taylor harvest that may be occurring for fish potential toxic agents found high tissue 2000, p. 54; BirdLife International 2007, bait is not on a large enough scale to be concentrations for only cadmium; p. 4; UNEP WCMC (United Nations a threat to this species. We have no however, cadmium levels did not differ Environmental Program, World reason to believe the levels of utilization between the year of high mortality and Conservation Monitoring Center) 2008a, will increase in the future. Therefore, the subsequent year when no unusual p. 5). The Australian islands of we find that overutilization for mortality occurred (Keyme et al. 2001, Macquarie, Heard, and McDonald are commercial, recreational, scientific, or pp. 163–165). also World Heritage sites with limited or educational purposes is not a threat to Bester et al. (2003, pp. 549–554) no visitation and with management the species in any portion of its range reported on the recolonization of sub- plans in place (UNEP WCMC 2008b, p. now or in the future. Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus 6; UNEP WCMC 2008c, p. 6). In 1995, Factor C: Disease or Predation tropicalis) and Antarctic fur seals the Prince Edward Islands Special (Arctocephalus gazelle) at Prince Nature Preserve was declared and Investigations have ruled out disease Edward Island. Rapid fur seal accompanied by the adoption of a as a significant factor in major recolonization is taking place at this formal management plan (Crawford and population declines at Campbell Island island. There are now an estimated Cooper 2003, p. 420). Based on our in the 1940s and 1950s or in the sharp minimum 72,000 sub-Antarctic fur seals review of the existing regulatory declines in the mid-1980s at the (Bester et al. 2003, p. 553); the mechanisms in place for each of these Falkland Islands. At Campbell Island, population has grown 9.5 percent areas and our analysis of other threat de Lisle et al. (1990, pp. 283–285) annually since 1997–98. Similarly, at factors, we find that the only isolated avian cholera (Pasteurella Marion Island, sub-Antarctic fur seal inadequacy in existing regulatory multocida) from the lungs of dead populations increased exponentially mechanisms regarding the conservation chicks and adults sampled during the between 1975 and 1995. Adult of the southern rockhopper penguin year of decline 1985–86 and the populations were 49,253 animals in (BirdLife International 2007, p. 4; Ellis subsequent year 1986–87. They were 1994–95. Crawford and Cooper (2003, p. et al. 1998, pp. 49, 53) to be the inability unable to determine whether this was a 418) expressed concern that the to ameliorate the effects of changes to natural infection in southern burgeoning presence of seals at Prince the marine environment on the species rockhopper penguins or one that had Edward and Marion Islands may be in the Campbell Plateau portion of its been introduced through the vectors of increasingly affecting southern range. rats, domestic poultry, cats (Felis catus), rockhopper penguins through physical In Chile, collection for zoological dogs (Canis familiaris), or livestock that displacement from nesting sites, display, which used to be permitted, is have been prevalent on the island in the prevention of access to breeding sites, now prohibited, and the species is not past. While the disease was isolated in direct predation, and increasing found in trade (Ellis et al. 1998, p. 54). four separate colonies along the coast of competition between southern Fisheries activities in the Falkland Campbell Island, and there was rockhopper penguins and seals for prey; Islands, which have increased evidence of very limited mortality from however, these potential effects of fur dramatically since the 1970s, are now the disease, the authors concluded there seals on southern rockhopper penguins closely regulated. A series of was no evidence that mortality from this have not been investigated. conservation zones has been pathogen on its own may have caused At Campbell Island in New Zealand, established, and the number of vessels the decline in numbers at Campbell de Lisle et al. (1990, p. 283) ruled out fishing within these zones is regulated Island (Cunningham and Moors 1994, p. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus), which to prevent fish and squid stocks from 34). Assays for a variety of other were present on the island at the time becoming depleted. The Falkland Island infectious avian diseases found no of precipitous declines, as a factor in Seabird Monitoring Program has been antibody responses in southern those declines. Feral cats are present on established to collect baseline data rockhopper penguins at Campbell Island Auckland Island, but have not been essential to identifying and detecting (de Lisle et al. 1990, pp. 284–285). observed preying on chicks there potential threats to seabirds (Putz et al.

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2001, p. 794). As discussed under Factor the southern rockhopper penguin shipment port. Oil pollution and ballast E, current licensing arrangements limit breeding season, when feeding demands tank cleaning have been a significant squid harvest to between the beginning are high (October to February). threat to Magellanic penguins of February and the end of May and the Nevertheless, reports of decreasing (Spheniscus magellanicus) north of this beginning of August and the end of catch per unit of effort for squid indicate zone (Ellis et al. 1998, pp. 111–112). In October, which minimizes overlap with a declining squid stock over the 1990s 1986, 800 southern rockhopper the southern rockhopper penguin (Putz et al. 2001, p. 803). penguins were found dead near Puerto breeding season, when feeding demands Coincidentally, Patagonian squid has Deseado, to the south of Commodoro are high (October to February) (Putz et declined in southern rockhopper Rivadavia, but consistent with trends for al. 2001, p. 803). penguin diets. However, southern that year elsewhere in the range, the In summary, aside from the rockhopper penguin diets have shifted birds appeared to have starved and there inadequacy of regulatory mechanisms to to notothenid fish, a prey that has were no signs of oiling (Ellis et al. 1998, ameliorate the threat of changes in the higher nutritional value than squid and p. 54). At the Falkland Islands, marine environment in the Campbell that has become more common. It is not hydrocarbon development is planned Plateau portion of the species’ range, we certain whether squid abundance or fish for areas north and southwest of the find that the existing national regulatory abundance is driving the switch. Falkland Islands. As of 2002, oil-related mechanisms are adequate regarding the Bingham (1998, p. 6) reported that there activities in the Falkland Islands were conservation of southern rockhopper is no direct evidence that food suspended, but exploration and penguins in all other parts of the availability has been affected by production may start again in the near species’ range. There is no information commercial fishing, but both he and future (Putz et al. 2002, p. 281). We have available to suggest these regulatory Putz et al. (2003b, p. 143) drew attention no information on petroleum mechanisms will change in the future. to the need for careful monitoring of development in other areas of the southern rockhopper penguin prey southern rockhopper penguin’s range. Factor E: Other Natural or Manmade availability in the face of commercial We recognize that an oil spill near a Factors Affecting the Continued fisheries development. breeding colony could have local effects Existence of the Species The winter foraging range of southern on southern rockhopper penguin Fisheries rockhopper penguins breeding at the colonies now and in the future. Falkland Islands takes them into the However, on the basis of the species’ While competition for prey with area of longline fishing at Burdwood widespread distribution and its robust commercial fisheries has been listed as Bank and onto the northern Patagonian population numbers, we believe the a potential factor affecting southern shelf. Birds are not in direct competition species can withstand the potential rockhopper penguins in various for fish prey species there. The risk of impacts from oil spills. Therefore, we do portions of their range (Ellis et al. 1998, bycatch from longline fishing is not a not believe that oiling or impacts from pp. 49, 53), we have found that it is only threat to penguins, as it is to other oil-related activities are factors affecting in the Falkland Islands where this seabird species, and on the northern the southern rockhopper penguin potential competition between Patagonian shelf where jigging is the throughout all of its range now or in the commercial fisheries and southern primary fishing method, bycatch is not future. rockhopper penguins has emerged and a significant threat (Putz et al. 2002, p. On the basis of analysis of potential been addressed. Bingham suggests that 282). fisheries impacts and possible impacts rapid southern rockhopper penguin In our review of fisheries activities, of petroleum development, we find that declines at the Falkland Islands in the we found no other reports of other natural or manmade factors are 1980’s were a result of uncontrolled documented fisheries interaction or not threats to the southern rockhopper commercial fishing (but see analysis of possible competition for prey between penguin in any portion of its range now El Nin˜ o under Factor A), but reports that southern rockhopper penguins and or in the future. following the establishment of a commercial fisheries or of documented Foreseeable Future regulatory body in 1988, the effects of fisheries bycatch in any other areas of over-fishing at the Falkland Islands have the range of the southern rockhopper In considering the foreseeable future been greatly mitigated (Bingham 2002, penguin. as it relates to the status of the southern p. 815), and southern rockhopper In summary, while fisheries activities rockhopper penguin, we considered the penguin populations have stopped have the potential to compete for the stressors and threats acting on the declining. At the Falkland Islands, the prey of southern rockhopper penguins, species. We considered the historical inshore area adjacent to colonies is not we find that there are adequate data to identify any relevant existing subject to fishing activities (Putz et al. monitoring regimes and fisheries trends that might allow for reliable 2002, p. 282). The diet of southern controls in place to manage fisheries prediction of the future (in the form of rockhopper penguins, in general, is interactions with southern rockhopper extrapolating the trends). We also dominated by crustaceans, with fish and penguins throughout all of its range, and considered whether we could reliably squid varying in importance. At the we have not reason to believe this will predict any future events (not yet acting Falkland Islands, squid, in particular change in the future. on the species and therefore not yet Patagonian squid (Loligo gahi), is of manifested in a trend) that might affect greater importance in the diet than in Oil Spills the status of the species. other rockhopper penguins (Putz et al. Oil development is a present and With respect to the southern 2001, p. 802). The Patagonian squid is future activity in the range of southern rockhopper penguin, the available data also an important commercial species rockhopper penguins breeding at the do not support a conclusion that there fished around the Falkland Islands. Falkland Islands. A favorite winter is a current overall trend in population Current licensing arrangements limit foraging area of southern rockhopper numbers, and the overall population squid harvest to between the beginning penguins is the Puerto Deseado area numbers are high. As discussed above of February and the end of May and the along the coast of Argentina, which lies in the five-factor analysis, we were also beginning of August and the end of just to the south of Commodoro unable to identify any significant trends October, which minimizes overlap with Rivadavia, a major refinery and oil affecting the species as a whole, with

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respect to the stressors and threats we We also considered whether any of neither an endangered species nor likely identified. There is no evidence that any the stressors began recently enough that to become an endangered species in the of the stressors or threats are growing in their effects are not yet manifested in a foreseeable future throughout all of its magnitude. Thus, the foreseeable future long-term decline in species’ population range. numbers, but are likely to have that includes consideration of the ongoing Distinct Population Segment effects of current stressors and threats at effect in the future. Given that the comparable levels. effects of stressors have either been Section 2(16) of the Act defines There remains the question of ameliorated (e.g., human use, ‘‘species’’ to include ‘‘any distinct whether we can reliably predict future competition with fisheries), or because population segment of any species of events (as opposed to ongoing trends) their effects appear to be restricted to a vertebrate fish or wildlife which that will likely cause the species to small portion of the species’ range, we interbreeds when mature.’’ To interpret become endangered. As we discuss in do not believe their effects would be and implement the DPS provisions of the finding below, we can reliably manifested in overall population the Act and Congressional guidance, the predict that changes to the marine declines in the future. Therefore, the Service and National Marine Fisheries environment will continue to affect southern rockhopper penguin is not Service published a Policy regarding the some southern rockhopper penguins in threatened or endangered due to threats recognition of Distinct Vertebrate some areas, but we have no reason to that began recently enough that their Population Segments in the Federal believe they will have overall effects are not yet manifested in a long- Register (DPS Policy) on February 7, 1996 (61 FR 4722). Under the DPS population-level impacts. Thus, the term decline. policy, three factors are considered in a foreseeable future includes Next, we considered whether any of decision concerning the establishment consideration of the effects of such the stressors were likely to increase and classification of a possible DPS. factors on the viability of the species. within the foreseeable future, such that the species is likely to become an These are applied similarly to Southern Rockhopper Penguin Finding endangered species in the foreseeable endangered and threatened species. The Throughout Its Range future. As discussed above, we first two factors—discreteness of the population segment in relation to the We identified a number of likely concluded that none of the stressors was remainder of the taxon and the stressors to this species, including: (1) likely to increase significantly. Having determined that a current or significance of the population segment Changes in the marine environment, (2) future declining trend does not justify to the taxon to which it belongs—bear human use and disturbance, (3) disease, listing the southern rockhopper on whether the population segment is a (4) competition with fisheries, and (5) penguin, we next considered whether valid DPS. If a population meets both oil spills. To determine whether these the species met the definition of an tests, it is a DPS, and then the third stressors individually or collectively endangered species or threatened factor is applied—the population rise to a ‘‘threat’’ level such that the species on account of its present or segment’s conservation status in relation southern rockhopper penguin is in likely future absolute numbers. The to the Act’s standards for listing, danger of extinction throughout its total population of about 1.4 million delisting, or reclassification (i.e., is the range, or likely to become so within the pairs appears robust. It is not so low population segment endangered or foreseeable future, we first considered that, despite our conclusion that there is threatened). whether the stressors to the species no ongoing decline, the species is at Discreteness Analysis were causing a long-term, population- such risk from stochastic events that it scale declines in penguin numbers, or is currently in danger of extinction. Under the DPS policy, a population were likely to do so in the future. Finally, we considered whether, even segment of a vertebrate taxon may be Based on a tally of estimated numbers if the size of the current population considered discrete if it satisfies either of southern rockhopper penguins in makes the species viable, it is likely to of the following conditions: (1) It is each region of the species’ range, there become endangered in the foreseeable markedly separated from other are approximately 1.4 million breeding future because stochastic events might populations of the same taxon as a pairs in the overall species’ population. reduce its current numbers to the point consequence of physical, physiological, While there have been major declines in where its viability would be in question. ecological, or behavioral factors penguin numbers in some areas, Because of the wide distribution of this (quantitative measures of genetic or particularly at the Falkland Islands and species, combined with its high morphological discontinuity may at Campbell Island and other New population numbers, even if a stochastic provide evidence of this separation) or Zealand islands, colonies in the major event were to occur within the (2) it is delimited by international portion of the species’ range have foreseeable future, negatively affecting boundaries within which differences in experienced lesser declines, remained this species, the population would still control of exploitation, management of stable, or appear to have increased. be unlikely to be reduced to such a low habitat, conservation status, or Therefore, based on the best available level that it would then be in danger of regulatory mechanisms exist that are data, we do not find an overall declining extinction. significant in light of section 4(a)(1)(D) trend in the species’ population. In Despite regional declines in numbers of the Act. other words, the combined effects of the of southern rockhopper penguins, the Southern Rockhopper penguins are likely stressors are not causing an species has thus far maintained what widely dispersed throughout the sub- overall long-term decline in the appears to be high population levels, Antarctic in colonies located on isolated southern rockhopper penguin numbers. while being subject to most if not all of island groups. With respect to Because there appears to be no ongoing the current stressors. The best available discreteness criterion 1, many of these long-term decline, the species is neither information suggests that the overall areas are clearly separated from others. endangered nor threatened due to southern rockhopper penguin Differences in physical appearance or factors causing ongoing population population is not declining, despite plumage patterns have been described declines, and the overall population of regional changes in population between the nominate chrysocome type, about 1.4 million pairs or more appears numbers. Therefore, we conclude that which breeds in the Falkland Islands robust. the southern rockhopper penguin is and off the southern tip of South

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America, and the eastern filholi type, Falkland Islands also foraged in the Ocean and near the southern tip of which breeds in the Indian Ocean and Burdwood Bank region. Thus, South America, with the closest southwest Pacific south of Australia and Burdwood Bank is a foraging area for colonies being roughly 7,300 km (4536 New Zealand, but we are unaware of some 90,000 breeding southern miles) at the Heard and McDonald further differences in physiological, rockhopper penguins over the winter Islands. ecological, or behavioral factors among period; about 31,000 originating from Based on the large geographic any groups within the overall range the Falklands and 60,000 from Staten distance between the populations south (Marchant and Higgins 1990, p. 191). Island. There is also mixing, although of New Zealand and Australia from Among the prominent breeding areas of made up of a smaller percentage of other populations, we conclude that this the southern rockhopper penguin, we Falkland Islands birds (6 percent), in the segment of the population of the have identified two areas that may be winter foraging areas along the southern rockhopper penguin passes the markedly separated from other northeastern coast of Tierra del Fuego. discreteness conditions for populations of the same taxon or face While Falkland Islands colonies have determination of a DPS. historically been considered a significant differences in conservation Significance Analysis status from other southern rockhopper significant stronghold of the southern populations: (1) The Falkland Islands, rockhopper penguin in the If a population segment is considered and (2) the islands to the south of southwestern Atlantic Ocean and discrete under one or more of the Australia and New Zealand, including declines there have been of significant conditions described in our DPS policy, Macquarie, Campbell, Auckland, and concern, recent research has identified its biological and ecological significance Antipodes Islands, where southern major previously undocumented is to be considered in light of rockhopper penguins breed. colonies in the same region that are as Congressional guidance that the Falkland Islands: The southern significant, or more significant, in authority to list DPSs be used rockhopper penguin breeds at about 52 abundance, and occupy portions of the ‘‘sparingly’’ while encouraging the locations around the Falkland Islands in same ecological region. These include conservation of genetic diversity. In aggregations numbering from a few colonies at nearby Staten Island in carrying out this examination, we hundred to more than 95,000 nests or Argentina and at Ildefonso and Diego consider available scientific evidence of breeding pairs. The most recent Ramirez Archipelagos in Chile, which the population segment’s importance to population estimates are of are about 149 miles (240 km) further the taxon to which it belongs. This approximately 210,000 breeding pairs west. The overall southern rockhopper consideration may include, but is not (Kirkwood et al. 2007, p. 266). The penguin numbers in this region, limited to: (1) Its persistence in an Falkland Islands breeding sites are including the Falkland Islands, total ecological setting unusual or unique for separated from the nearest major about 765,000 breeding pairs (Kirkwood the taxon; (2) evidence that its loss southern rockhopper penguin breeding et al. 2007, p. 266), with Falkland would result in a significant gap in the concentrations at Staten Island, Islands colonies constituting 27 percent range of the taxon; (3) evidence that it Argentina, by about 264 mi (425 km). At of this total. As discussed above, is the only surviving natural occurrence Staten Island, there are reported to be extensive ecological overlap in foraging of a taxon that may be more abundant 180,000 breeding pairs (Schiavini 2000, range between Falkland Islands birds elsewhere as an introduced population p. 288). It is not known to what extent and the Staten Island colonies has been outside its historic range; or (4) interbreeding or movement of breeding documented, with overlap in use of the evidence that the DPS differs markedly pairs occurs between the Falkland Burdwood Bank and some shared from other populations of the species in Islands and the extensive breeding foraging range on the Patagonian shelf. its genetic characteristics. A population colonies in southern Argentina and In turn, the foraging ranges of Staten segment needs to satisfy only one of Chile, although the possibility of Island birds are likely to overlap with these criteria to be considered movement of breeding birds from the those of the Chilean colonies to the west significant. Furthermore, the list of Falkland Islands to Staten Island has (Putz et al. 2006, p. 740). We find that criteria is not exhaustive; other criteria been suggested (Schiavini 2000, p. 290). the literature increasingly refers to the may be used, as appropriate. Below, we Winter foraging studies show that the biology and conservation of the suite of consider the biological and ecological relatively short distance between these colonies around the southern tip of significance to the New Zealand/ colonies allows for interchange between South America and the Falkland Islands Australia DPS. the southern rockhopper penguins at the as a significant larger regional Historical numbers of southern Falkland Islands and those at the concentration, downplaying emphasis rockhopper penguins in this region may southern tip of South America (Putz et on the discreteness of the Falkland have been as high as 960,000 breeding al. 2006, p. 741). This overlap is by no Islands colonies (Kirkwood et al. 2007, pairs, with declines recorded from the means complete; at least half of the p. 266; Putz et al. 2006, pp. 743–744; New Zealand islands. Currently there breeding rockhopper penguins from Schiavini et al. 2000, p. 289). We concur are approximately 89,600–101,500 both the Falkland Islands and Staten with this conclusion; therefore, we find breeding pairs in the region, which Island forage in distinct winter foraging that the Falkland Islands colonies of the represents 6 to 7 percent of the current areas that are not used by birds from the southern rockhopper penguin do not estimated population of 1.4 million other region (Putz et al. 2006, p. 741). meet the criterion of discreteness for southern rockhopper breeding pairs However, in other areas there is determination of a DPS. On this basis, rangewide. extensive mixing on the winter foraging we do not consider the Falkland Islands This group of breeding colonies grounds. For example, about 17 percent colonies of the southern rockhopper inhabits a unique ecological and of the birds from Staten Island foraged penguin to be a DPS. geographical position in the range of the in the region of Burdwood Bank, an New Zealand/Australia: With respect southern rockhopper penguin. The isolated extension of the Patagonian to the discreteness criterion 1, the underwater topography and continental shelf, due east of Staten southern rockhopper breeding islands oceanography of this area is unique and Island and due south of the Falkland south of New Zealand and Australia are has been described in detail in the Islands. About 25 percent of the birds geographically isolated from southern Macquarie Island Management Plan from the southern colonies on the rockhopper breeding areas in the Indian (Parks and Wildlife Service (Australia)

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2006a, pp. 20–22). The islands sit in Macquarie Island, which represents 32 On the basis of our analysis of the best areas of relatively shallow water, to 48 percent of this DPS, southern available scientific and commercial generally less than 3,280 ft (1,000 m) rockhopper penguin numbers were information, we find that the southern deep. Macquarie Island is on the recently estimated to be lower than rockhopper penguin is not in danger of shallow Macquarie Ridge, which is previous categorical estimates, but it is extinction throughout all of its range in associated with a deep trench to the not clear whether this reflects a decline the New Zealand/Australia DPS or east, and connects to the north with the versus more precise surveys. likely to become so in the foreseeable broader Campbell Plateau, an extensive As described in our five-factor future as a consequence of the threats area of shallow water that is part of the analysis, changes to the marine evaluated under the five factors in the continental shelf extending southeast environment are cited as factors that Act. from New Zealand. The New Zealand have led to historic or recent large islands (Campbell, Auckland, and declines at some, but not all, of the Significant Portion of the Range Antipodes), with breeding colonies of breeding locations within the New Analysis southern rockhopper penguins, sit on Zealand/Australia DPS. While the Having determined that the southern the Campbell Plateau. This region and oceanographic factors contributing to rockhopper penguin is not now in all these islands sit just north of the such declines have not been clearly danger of extinction throughout all of its Antarctic Polar Front Zone (APFZ), a explained, they appear to relate to range or in the New Zealand/Australia distinct hydrographic boundary with changes in sea surface temperatures or DPS or likely to become so in the cold nutrient-rich surface waters to the to changes in marine productivity at foreseeable future as a consequence of south and warmer, less rich, water to scales affecting individual colonies or the stressors evaluated under the five the north. In addition, the Macquarie regions, leading to periodic or long-term threat factors in the Act, we also Ridge and Campbell Plateau form a reductions in food availability. There is considered whether there were any major obstruction to the ACC, which little or no current information, significant portions of its range where ° runs easterly at about 50 S latitude. however, on the effects of these changes the species is in danger of extinction or This further increases the high degree of on the breeding and foraging success of likely to become so in the foreseeable turbulence and current variability in the southern rockhopper penguins in areas future. area and is likely to directly or of previous decline. Although changes The Act defines an endangered indirectly encourage biological in the marine environment appear to be species as one ‘‘in danger of extinction productivity (Parks and Wildlife Service affecting some southern rockhopper throughout all or a significant portion of breeding areas within this DPS, (Australia) 2006a, pp. 20–22). its range,’’ and a threatened species as We conclude that loss of the colonies information is not at a meaningful scale one ‘‘likely to become an endangered in the region would create a significant to evaluate current changes to the species within the foreseeable future gap in the range of the taxon and marine habitat in the overall New throughout all or a significant portion of remove southern rockhopper penguins Zealand/Australia DPS or to make its range.’’ The term ‘‘significant portion from the unique ecological setting of the predictions on future trends about of its range’’ is not defined by statute. Macquarie Ridge and Campbell Plateau whether changes to the marine For purposes of this finding, a that lies in a unique position relative to environment will affect southern significant portion of a species’ range is the APFZ and the ACC. Therefore, rockhoppers penguins across the New an area that is important to the because we find the New Zealand/ Zealand/Australia DPS. Australia population segment to be Although the data indicate that conservation of the species because it discrete and because it meets the changes to the marine habitat may be a contributes meaningfully to the significance criterion, with respect to (1) threat to New Zealand colonies on the representation, resiliency, or Its persistence in an ecological setting Campbell Plateau, we do not find that redundancy of the species. unusual or unique for the taxon; and (2) historical declines there are currently The first step in determining whether evidence that its loss would result in a rising to the level of having a significant a species is endangered in a SPR is to significant gap in the range of the taxon, effect on the entire DPS. Therefore, on identify any portions of the range of the it qualifies as a DPS under the Act. the basis of the best available scientific species that warrant further and commercial information, we find consideration. The range of a species New Zealand/Australia DPS Finding that the present or threatened can theoretically be divided into Historical numbers of southern destruction, modification, or portions in an infinite number of ways. rockhopper penguins for this New curtailment of this species’ marine However, there is no purpose to Zealand/Australia DPS may have been habitat or range is not a threat to the analyzing portions of the range that are as high as 960,000 breeding pairs; they southern rockhopper penguin not reasonably likely to be significant are currently estimated at 89,600– throughout the range of New Zealand/ and endangered. To identify those 101,500 breeding pairs. Significant Australia DPS, now or in the future. portions that warrant further historical declines have been reported, Below, we will further consider whether consideration, we determine whether in particular, at Campbell Island, where the New Zealand colonies are a there is substantial information a decline of 94 percent was recorded significant portion of the range (SPR) of indicating that (i) the portions may be between the early 1940s and 1985; at the DPS. significant and (ii) the species may be in Antipodes Islands, where a decline of We have not documented any danger of extinction there. In practice, a 94 percent was recorded; and at significant changes to the terrestrial key part of this analysis is whether the Auckland Islands, where the numbers habitat of the southern rockhopper threats are geographically concentrated halved between 1983 and 1990. Current penguin. Also, on the basis of our five- in some way. If the threats to the species quantitative data is not available to factor analysis, we did not find any of are essentially uniform throughout its indicate whether, and to what extent, the other factors to be threats to the range, no portion is likely to warrant numbers throughout all of this DPS southern rockhopper penguin’s further consideration. Moreover, if any continue to decline, but qualitative continued existence in any portion of concentration of threats applies only to evidence indicates that numbers at the species’ range in the New Zealand/ portions of the range that are Campbell Island continue to decline. At Australia DPS now or in the future. unimportant to the conservation of the

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species, such portions will not warrant respond and adapt to future of 272,000 breeding pairs in 2000–01 to further consideration. environmental changes. A peripheral approximately 210,000 breeding pairs in If we identify any portions that population may contribute meaningfully 2005–06 (Kirkwood et al. 2007, p. 266). warrant further consideration, we then to representation if there is evidence It is unclear from available information determine whether, in fact, the species that it provides genetic diversity due to whether numbers are fluctuating or is threatened or endangered in any its location on the margin of the species’ moving into another period of decline. significant portion of its range. habitat requirements. In summary, even though numbers of Depending on the biology of the species, To determine whether any portions of southern rockhopper penguins at the its range, and the threats it faces, it may the range of the southern rockhopper Falkland Islands have shown an overall be more efficient for the Service to penguin warrant further consideration decline over time, numbers have not address the significance question first, as possible threatened or endangered declined at a consistent rate, but rather, or the status question first. Thus, if the significant portions of the range, we there have been periodic decreases in Service determines that a portion of the reviewed the entire supporting record numbers, as well as at least one period range is not significant, the Service need for the status review of this species with of increase. Therefore, we cannot not determine whether the species is respect to the geographic concentration assume a consistent rate of decline into threatened or endangered there. If the of threats and the significance of the future. Furthermore, it is unclear to Service determines that the species is portions of the range to the conservation what extent the fluctuations in numbers not threatened or endangered in a of the species. As previously mentioned, are attributed to potential relocations to portion of its range, the Service need not we evaluated whether substantial nearby Staten Island, where numbers determine if that portion is significant. information indicated that (i) the are stable to increasing. Numbers at the If the Service determines that both a portions may be significant and (ii) the Falkland Islands appear to be relatively portion of the range of a species is species in that portion may be currently high, at approximately 210,000 breeding significant and the species is threatened in danger of extinction or likely to pairs, and in our five-factor analysis, we or endangered there, the Service will become so within the foreseeable future. were unable to identify ongoing threats specify that portion of the range as We have found that population declines to southern rockhopper penguin threatened or endangered pursuant to are uneven across the range, indicating colonies at the Falkland Islands. section 4(c)(1) of the Act. the possible occurrence of differential Therefore, we have determined that The terms ‘‘resiliency,’’ stressors or threats across the range of the Falkland Islands portion of the range ‘‘redundancy,’’ and ‘‘representation’’ are the southern rockhopper penguin. On does not satisfy one of the two initial intended to be indicators of the this basis we determined that some tests, because there is not substantial conservation value of portions of the portions of the southern rockhopper’s information to suggest that southern range. Resiliency of a species allows the range might warrant further rockhopper penguins in the Falkland species to recover from periodic consideration as possible threatened or Islands portion of the range may be disturbance. A species will likely be endangered significant portions of the currently in danger of extinction, and more resilient if large populations exist range. since we cannot establish a continuing in high-quality habitat that is The southern rockhopper penguin is declining trend in numbers or a distributed throughout the range of the widely distributed throughout the continuing trend in threat factors, we species in such a way as to capture the Southern Ocean. In our five-factor have no reason to believe that the environmental variability found within analysis we did not identify any factor species is likely to become endangered the range of the species. In addition, the that was found to be a threat to the there within the foreseeable future. portion may contribute to resiliency for species throughout all of its range or Because we find that the southern other reasons—for instance, it may throughout all of the New Zealand/ rockhopper penguin is not threatened or contain an important concentration of Australia DPS. In our status review, we endangered in this portion of the range, certain types of habitat that are identified the Falkland Islands, Marion we need not address whether this necessary for the species to carry out its Island, and finally, the Campbell Island portion of its range is significant. life-history functions, such as breeding, Plateau region within the New Zealand/ Marion Island SPR Analysis feeding, migration, dispersal, or Australia DPS as areas where declines wintering. Redundancy of populations have occurred, indicating the possibility For the Marion Island portion of the may be needed to provide a margin of that the species may be threatened or southern rockhopper penguin’s range, safety for the species to withstand endangered there. we first considered whether there is catastrophic events. This does not mean substantial information to indicate that Falkland Islands SPR Analysis that any portion that provides this portion of the range is significant. redundancy is a significant portion of For the Falkland Islands, we first In terms of abundance, Marion Island the range of a species. The idea is to considered whether there is substantial represents less than 5 percent of the conserve enough areas of the range such information to indicate that this portion overall southern rockhopper penguin that random perturbations in the system of the range may be in danger of population, which is estimated at more act on only a few populations. extinction. The southern rockhopper that 1.4 million breeding pairs, with Therefore, each area must be examined penguin breeds at about 52 locations colonies widely distributed around the based on whether that area provides an around the Falkland Islands in Southern Ocean. Even not considering increment of redundancy important to aggregations numbering from a few the breeding pairs at Marion Island, the the conservation of the species. hundred to more than 95,000 nests or distribution of the species includes Adequate representation ensures that breeding pairs. In the period from 1932– other large, stable or increasing the species’ adaptive capabilities are 33 to 1995–96, the Falkland Islands populations in high-quality habitat conserved. Specifically, the portion numbers declined from an estimated 1.5 representing the environmental should be evaluated to see how it million breeding pairs to 263,000 variability found within the range of the contributes to the genetic diversity of breeding pairs, or about 2.75 percent per species. Therefore, even without the the species. The loss of genetically year. However, since that time numbers colonies at Marion Island, the species based diversity may substantially have been largely stable, fluctuating would have sufficient resiliency to reduce the ability of the species to from 263,000 pairs in 1995–96 to a high recover from periodic disturbances.

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Furthermore, given the wide breeding areas in this DPS provides a summarize our analysis on whether distribution of the species, even without measure of resiliency against periodic listing of the Campbell Plateau SPR is the colonies at Marion Island, the disturbance. The loss of the Campbell warranted. species would have sufficient Plateau breeding colonies would greatly Finding of Campbell Plateau SPR redundancy of other populations, such reduce the overall geographic range of that random perturbations in the system this DPS to one location. The species Within the Campbell Plateau portion would only affect a few of the remaining would no longer inhabit the ecologically of the range of the southern rockhopper populations. Finally, not considering distinct Campbell Plateau, an area of penguin, significant historical declines colonies at Marion Island, we find that historically high-quality habitat (as have been reported, in particular for the species has adequate representation evidenced by previous high numbers at Campbell Island where a decline of 94 of its adaptive capabilities to enable the Campbell Island). Loss of some or all of percent was recorded between the early species to adapt to future environmental these three breeding concentrations, two 1940s and 1985. Continued changes. For example, the number of of which number less than 3,600 unquantified declines were reported to southern rockhopper penguins at nearby breeding pairs, would significantly the present day. The most recent survey Prince Edward Island appears to have reduce the redundancy of populations data available from Campbell Island is been stable since the 1980s with in this DPS and increase the impact of from 1985, when there were 51,500 35,000–45,000 pairs present. Given random or catastrophic perturbations on breeding pairs (Cunningham and Moors Marion Island’s position within the remaining population numbers in the 1994, p. 34). At Antipodes Islands, a species’ range (i.e., far from the New Zealand/Australia DPS. Therefore, decline of 94 percent was recorded periphery of its range), and its proximity we conclude that this Campbell Plateau between 1978 and 1995, and current to other southern rockhopper breeding portion of the range passes the estimates are of 3,400 breeding pairs. At areas, we do not believe the penguins at significance criterion for evaluating a the Auckland Islands, the number of Marion Island represent unique SPR. penguins halved between 1983 and adaptive capabilities that would be lost We next evaluate the Campbell 1990 to 3,600 breeding pairs. There are if their breeding colonies were lost from Plateau portion of the range relative to no current quantitative data to indicate the population. Therefore, we have the geographical concentration of whether, and to what extent, declines determined that the Marion Island threats in this region. Among colonies of have continued at any of these three portion of the species’ range does not southern rockhopper penguins island groups. Historical numbers of satisfy the significance test of being a throughout the species’ range, the three southern rockhopper penguins in the significant portion of the species’ range, island groups within the Campbell Campbell Plateau portion of the species’ and we need not address whether this Plateau portion of the range have range may have been as high as 860,000 portion of its range is threatened or experienced the most severe declines. breeding pairs in the early 1940s; an endangered. While trends are unclear at Macquarie overall decline of 94 percent or more Island, overall numbers at Campbell has brought this number down to less Campbell Plateau SPR Analysis Island are recorded to have been as high than 60,000 breeding pairs today. Given In our analysis of the New Zealand/ as 800,000 breeding pairs in the early the low numbers at Antipodes and Australia DPS of southern rockhopper 1940s, and the last 1985 census Auckland Islands, Campbell Island is penguins, we identified major declines numbers indicated a 94-percent the primary stronghold for the Campbell in numbers of southern rockhopper reduction to 51,500 pairs. Current Plateau portion of the species’ range. penguins at the New Zealand breeding qualitative information indicates that In our five-factor analysis (see above), locations at Campbell, Auckland, and colonies are still in decline, although we did not find documentation of any Antipodes Islands, while numbers at the rate of that decline is significant changes to the terrestrial Macquarie Island are reported to be undocumented. In our analysis of the habitat of the southern rockhopper stable. As reflected in our five-factor New Zealand/Australia DPS, we penguin. Changes to the marine analysis, declines in penguin numbers concluded that changes to the marine environment, however, are cited as at the locations identified above are environment that influence the southern factors that have led to historical or attributed to changes in the marine rockhopper penguin have affected the recent large declines within the environment, which may have affected Campbell Plateau more than the Campbell Plateau portion of the range. overall marine productivity or the Macquarie Ridge region; therefore, the While the oceanographic factors distribution and abundance of southern present or threatened destruction, contributing to such declines have not rockhopper prey species at these sites. modification, or curtailment of its been clearly explained, they appear to We view the New Zealand Campbell habitat or range is a risk factor that relate to periodic or long-term changes Plateau colonies as an integral part of threatens the southern rockhopper in sea surface temperatures within the the geographic area encompassed by the penguin in the Campbell Plateau of the summer or winter foraging ranges of New Zealand/Australia DPS, and not as New Zealand/Australia DPS. On this southern rockhopper penguins, or to discrete in and of itself. On this basis basis, we conclude that there is changes in marine productivity at scales and on the basis of the severe declines substantial information indicating that affecting individual colonies or regions. in this area, we will analyze the listing of the Campbell Plateau portion These oceanographic changes have Campbell Plateau portion of the range as of the range of the southern rockhopper apparently led to reductions in food a possible SPR. penguin as threatened or endangered availability that may have occurred in With approximately 60,000 breeding may be warranted. short periods or extended over periods pairs in the New Zealand range of the Having determined that the Campbell of years. The available regulatory southern rockhopper penguin, the three Plateau populations of the New mechanisms have not ameliorated the Campbell Plateau breeding areas Zealand/Australia DPS of the southern effects of these changes in the marine (Campbell, Auckland, and Antipodes rockhopper penguin are significant and environment, and we have no reason to Islands) make up over 60 percent of the that there is substantial information believe these changes in the marine New Zealand/Australia DPS and indicating that listing of this portion of environment will be ameliorated in the represent three out of its four breeding the range as threatened or endangered future; therefore, we find it reasonably concentrations. The presence of four may be warranted, we will now likely that the effects on the species in

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this portion of its range will continue at as a threatened species in the Campbell reported to have experienced large current levels or potentially increase. Plateau portion of its range under the declines prior to the 1980s (BirdLife On the basis of the best available Act. International 2008a, p. 2), but were scientific and commercial information stable between 1982 and 2000 (Cuthbert Final Determination for the Southern and evidence of precipitous decreases of and Sommer 2004, p. 101). Recent Rockhopper Penguin in All Other penguin numbers in this area, we find unpublished reports are said to indicate that the present or threatened Portions of its Range (i.e., not including the Campbell Plateau) recent substantial declines (Jouventin et destruction, modification, or al. 2006, p. 3,422); however, we have no curtailment of its marine habitat or On the basis of analysis of the five further information on the regional range is a threat to the southern factors and the best available scientific extent of decline, and so we cannot rockhopper penguin in the Campbell and commercial information, we find evaluate the effect of these declines on Plateau portion of its range now and in that listing the southern rockhopper the overall population status of the the future. penguin as threatened or endangered northern rockhopper penguin. On the basis of our five-factor analysis under the Act throughout all or in any of the best available scientific and other portion of its range is not Tristan da Cunha commercial information (see above), we warranted. find that overutilization for commercial, Tristan da Cunha consists of a main recreational, scientific, or educational Northern Rockhopper Penguin island and several smaller islands. It is purposes; disease; and predation are not Distribution reported that the main island experienced a decline of about 98 threats to the southern rockhopper The northern rockhopper penguin penguin in the Campbell Plateau percent 130 years ago until about 30 (Eudyptes moseleyi) is restricted to years ago, but over the past few decades portion of its range. On the basis of islands of the Tristan da Cunha region numbers have been stable, with information on fisheries and oil and Gough Island (St. Helena, United numbers currently estimated at 3,200– development, we find that other natural Kingdom) in the South Atlantic and St. 4,500 breeding pairs (Cuthbert in litt., as or manmade factors are not a threat to Paul and Amsterdam Islands (French cited in BirdLife International 2008a, the southern rockhopper penguin in the Southern Territories) in the Indian pp. 2–3.) Campbell Plateau portion of its range. Ocean. We find that precipitous population Two chicks banded at Amsterdam At Inaccessible Island, numbers may declines have depleted the Campbell Island in 1992 were recovered off the have declined ‘‘modestly’’ and are Plateau SPR to 6 percent of its prior coast of eastern and southern Australia currently estimated at 18,000–27,000 abundance, and based on our review of 7 and 9 months later, indicating that breeding pairs. Trends at Nightingale the best available information, we find immature Indian Ocean birds may and Middle Islands are poorly known, it is reasonably likely that these severe winter off southern Australia (Guinard but recent observations suggest local declines resulted from effects of changes et al. 1998, p. 224). declines in the main colony on in the marine environment. We have no Nightingale Island. The latest estimate Population reason to believe that these changes in of numbers of northern rockhopper the marine environment will not The overall breeding population of penguins on these two islands was in continue to affect southern rockhopper northern rockhopper penguins is the 1970’s and was reported to be penguins in the Campbell Plateau SPR estimated to be approximately 315,000– 125,000 pairs (Cuthbert in litt., as cited at current (and potentially greater) 334,000 pairs on these island groups in in BirdLife International 2008a, p. 3). levels, further reducing population the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans No information is available on numbers numbers. and is thought to be declining Lower population numbers, a or trends at Stoltenhof Island. In (Jouventin et al. 2006, p. 3,417; Guinard summary, given the numbers reported reasonably likely result in the et al. 1998, p. 224; Woehler 1993, p. 58); foreseeable future, would make this above, there appear to be from 146,200– however, based on the current 156,500 breeding pairs of northern species even more vulnerable to the information available on population threats from changes in the marine rockhopper penguins in the Tristan da trends throughout the species’ range, as Cunha Island group, not including those habitat, and would make the species discussed below, the overall population vulnerable to potential impacts from oil on Stoltenhoff Island. Although trend of the northern rockhopper numbers appear stable at Tristan, the spills and other random catastrophic penguin appears uncertain. events. Therefore, on the basis of our main island, trends are unknown Documentation of current trend throughout the remainder of this region. analysis of the best available scientific information is at this time only available and commercial information, we find for areas of Gough Island, as discussed Indian Ocean that the southern rockhopper penguin in below, which is only part of the species’ Amsterdam Island the Campbell Plateau SPR of the New overall range. Zealand/Australia DPS is likely to become endangered with extinction in South Atlantic Ocean Northern rockhopper penguins at the foreseeable future. Amsterdam Island decreased in Gough Island numbers from 58,000 breeding pairs in Proposed Determination for the Early records indicate that numbers 1971 to 24,890 in 1993, for an overall Southern Rockhopper Penguin in the were historically in the millions on both decrease of 57 percent. The declines Campbell Plateau Portion of its Range Gough Island and Tristan da Cunha. The were most rapid, at 5.3 percent per year, On the basis of analysis of the five most recent population estimates between 1988 and 1993, but this was factors and the best available scientific indicate that over the past 45 years, also a period when there was the widest and commercial information, find that numbers have declined by about 96 fluctuation in numbers, from a low of listing the southern rockhopper penguin percent on Gough Island, where there 17,400 to a high of 39,871 breeding pairs as a threatened species in the Campbell are currently estimated to be 32,000– (Guinard et al. 1998, pp. 226–227). After Plateau portion of its range under the 65,000 breeding pairs (Cuthbert in litt., a lengthy period of gradual decline, the Act is warranted. We, therefore, propose as cited in BirdLife International 2008a, most recent available data indicate a to list the southern rockhopper penguin pp. 2–3). Numbers on this island are period of population fluctuation with

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both increases (up to 39,871 breeding between sea surface temperatures and is reported to have caused significant pairs from 17,400 pairs) and decreases numbers at adjacent St. Paul Island, mortality in the past. Such activities are in numbers. With the final reported where penguin numbers increased 56 now prohibited and regarded as figure of 24,890, which is above percent during this same period. The unlikely to return (BirdLife previous lows, best available data do not authors hypothesized that with cooling International 2007, p. 3). allow us to evaluate if the colonies at water temperatures, prey may have Harvest of Eggs Amsterdam Island continue to fluctuate, shifted towards more northern waters, or are stable, increasing, or declining. which are less accessible for breeding In the South Atlantic, the United penguins (Guinard et al. 1998, p. 227). Kingdom Department for Environment, St. Paul Island Guinard et al. (1998, p. 226) did not find Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) At St. Paul Island, 50 mi (80 km) major differences in breeding success reported that harvesting of many south of Amsterdam Island, the between the Amsterdam Island colony seabirds, including northern rockhopper numbers of northern rockhopper and study colonies in other areas. The penguins, was intensive in the past, but penguins increased by 56 percent over absence of conclusive correlations and is now greatly reduced, and restricted to the period of 1971–1993, with a current the opposing trends occurring at the two egg collection for traditional domestic estimate of 9,000 breeding pairs adjacent islands make it difficult to use of the 269 residents of Tristan da (Guinard et al. 1998, p. 227). This draw conclusions relative to the impact Cunha. Under the 2006 Conservation increase is considered to have begun of sea surface temperature changes on Ordinance, egg collection is restricted to after the cessation of the use of northern rockhopper penguin marine Nightingale (25,000 breeding pairs), rockhopper penguins as bait in a habitat in these areas. Stoltenhof and Middle Islands (100,000 crayfish industry, which operated in the We have identified no reports of breeding pairs) in the Tristan da Cunha 1930s, although all the apparent marine habitat changes for group (DEFRA 2007, p. 2; Tristan da interrelationships acting on this gradual, northern rockhopper penguins at Gough Cunha Website 2008, p. 1). Rockhopper upward trend are not understood Island and Tristan da Cunha, or reports penguins lay two eggs, the first of which (Guinard et al. 1998, p. 227). of declines in the prey base in these often fails during incubation. If the areas. chick from the first egg hatches, this Other Status Classifications chick usually dies or is discarded as the The IUCN Red List classifies the Conclusion parents raise the larger chick from the northern rockhopper penguin as Although it is possible that climate second egg. If the second egg fails to ‘Endangered,’ due to ‘‘very rapid change will result in changes to the hatch or is lost, the chick from the first population decreases over the last three marine habitat of the northern egg may survive (Marchant and Higgins generations (30 years) throughout its rockhopper penguin, data on the 1990, p. 190); therefore, this information range.’’ relationship between sea surface suggests that limited harvest of eggs for temperature and other oceanic traditional domestic use can be Summary of Factors Affecting the conducted without influencing breeding Species conditions are ambiguous and not sufficient to draw conclusions as to the success of the large colonies where Factor A: The Present or Threatened contribution of changes in these collection occurs. However, we cannot Destruction, Modification, or conditions to the local declines at evaluate whether this is true because: (1) Empirical data are not available to Curtailment of Its Habitat or Range Amsterdam Island. This precludes us verify whether breeding success is from being able to identify current Terrestrial Habitat affected by this practice; (2) population relationships or to predict possible We have found no current reports of trends, which would be a partial future trends. threats to the terrestrial breeding habitat indicator of population status, on these Therefore, on the basis of the best of northern rockhopper penguins, and islands are unknown; and (3) since the available scientific and commercial we have no reason to believe threats to restrictions on egg harvest were only information, we find that the present or the terrestrial habitat will emerge in the recently adopted in 2006, there may not threatened destruction, modification, or future. have been sufficient time to for the curtailment of this species’ terrestrial adopted restrictions on egg collection to Climate-Related Changes in the Marine and marine habitats or range is not a have exhibited their affects on Environment threat to the northern rockhopper population growth. Nevertheless, given penguin in any portion of its range now With respect to the marine that northern rockhopper penguin and we do not foresee that it will environment, Guinard et al. (1998, p. numbers in the Tristan da Cunha region become so in the future. 224) reported that sea surface are estimated at 146,200–156,500 temperatures declined significantly, Factor B: Overutilization for breeding pairs, we do not find over- approximately 1.4 °F (0.8 °C), around Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or harvest of eggs to be a threat to the Amsterdam and St. Paul Islands Educational Purposes species. Furthermore, we have no between 1982 and 1993. The annual Use as Bait reason to believe that the level of egg mean decrease correlated with declines harvest will increase in the future. in numbers of northern rockhopper Northern rockhopper penguins at the penguins at Amsterdam Island in the small colonies at St. Paul Island in the Collection of Penguins From the Wild same period. Summer (February) sea Indian Ocean were exploited heavily for The United Kingdom permitted a one- surface temperatures were also bait to support a crayfish fishery in the time harvest of 146 live northern correlated with the numbers of northern 1930s, but this practice has been rockhopper penguins from Tristan da rockhopper penguins at Amsterdam discontinued since the 1940s (Guinard Cunha for exports to zoos in the autumn Island the following spring. However, 1998, p. 227), and we have no reason to of 2003 (DEFRA 2007, p. 2). Under the there was no relationship between believe it will recommence in the 2006 Conservation Ordinance, no take, spring temperatures and the numbers of future. capture, removal, or collection of any penguins at Amsterdam Island, and In the Tristan da Cunha region, native organism is allowed without a there were no significant correlations driftnet fishing and penguin use for bait permit (Tristan da Cunha Website 2008,

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p. 1). Any take of live penguins from the do not have documentation of current penguins; however, as of yet the extent wild would reduce numbers, potentially population trends on the islands where of predation and its effect on the acting as stressor to local colonies. egg collection is occurring, but given northern rockhopper penguin However, given the large numbers of that the numbers in the Tristan da population has not been determined. breeding pairs (146,200–156,500) in this Cunha region are estimated at 146,200– Furthermore, because fur seal numbers region and the new (2006) regulations 156,500 breeding pairs, we do not find have leveled off, we do not believe the restricting take from the wild, we do not over-harvest of eggs, nor over-collection possibility of predation on northern consider the current level of limited of individuals to be a threat to the rockhopper penguins will increase in take of individuals from the wild to be species. the future. Although the population a threat to this species. We have no Based on the available information, trend at Amsterdam Island is unknown, reason to believe that the level of the only other utilization of the species according to the best available collection of individuals from the wild within its range that we were able information, there are an estimated will increase in the future. identify is banding of individuals for 24,890 breeding pairs there, which is above previously low numbers. Scientific Research scientific research at Amsterdam Island. As discussed above, we do not consider There is no information to suggest Scientists studying northern this activity a threat to the species now that predation from fur seals is or will rockhopper penguins at Amsterdam or in the future. become a threat to the northern Islands applied flipper bands to all On the basis of this information, we rockhopper penguin in any other incubating birds in a study colony of find that overutilization for commercial, portion of its range in the future. from 100–300 breeding pairs. They recreational, scientific, or educational Therefore we find that predation by reported that the mean adult survival purposes is not a threat to the northern fur seals is not a threat to the northern rate of 72 percent was significantly rockhopper penguin in any portion of rockhopper penguin in any portion of lower in the first year after banding than its range now or in the future. its range now or in the future. in subsequent years (mean adult survival of 84 percent) suggesting that Factor C: Disease or Predation Introduced Predators there was an effect of banding on the Disease Rats were eradicated from St. Paul birds. There was a similar effect for Island in 1999 (Terres Australes and banded chicks (Guinard et al. 1998, p. We are aware of no reports in the Antarctiques Francaises (TAAF) 2008, 223–224). Based on this information, we literature on the effect of disease on p. 3). At Gough Island, Jones et al. believe that bird banding acts as a northern rockhopper penguins (2003, p. 81) reported on the presence stressor on northern rockhopper anywhere within the species’ range, and of mice (Mus musculus), but did not penguins in this region; however, given we have no information to suggest that indicate any effect on northern the small size of the study colony and disease incidence or transmission to the rockhopper penguin colonies. There is the relatively small decrease in survival northern rockhopper penguin will no information available that suggests of a small number of birds, we conclude increase in the future. Therefore, we predation is a threat to northern that the bird banding practice as find that disease is not a threat to the rockhopper penguins in any other described in the literature is not a threat northern rockhopper penguin in any portion of its range and no reason to to the northern rockhopper penguins at portion of the species’ range now or in believe predation will become a threat the Amsterdam Islands or elsewhere in the future. to this species in any portion of its range the species’ range. There is no Predation by Sub-Antarctic Fur Seals in the future. information that suggests banding Factor D: The Inadequacy of Existing activities will increase in magnitude in Predation by sub-Antarctic fur seals Regulatory Mechanisms any portion of the species’ range in the has been identified as a possible stressor future. on northern rockhopper penguins at Northern rockhopper penguins are Amsterdam Island, where numbers of protected from human over-exploitation Conclusion fur seals increased from 4,868–35,028 at the Tristan da Cunha area. Activities We conclude that the primary between the 1970s and 1982 (Guinard et involving take of the species, utilization of northern rockhopper al. 1998, p. 227). This increase in fur specifically harvest of eggs for domestic penguins at this time in the Tristan da seal numbers occurred within the time use by the small community at Tristan Cunha region is the regulated collection period (1971–1993) that northern da Cunha Island has been greatly of eggs for traditional domestic rockhopper penguin numbers at reduced and restricted (BirdLife consumption by the small number of Amsterdam Island reportedly declined International 2007, p. 4; DEFRA 2007, p. residents, as well as regulated collection by 57 percent. Fur seal numbers 2; Tristan da Cunha Web site 2008, p. of individuals from the wild. Although subsequently leveled off through the 1). Gough Island Wildlife Reserve is a there may have been insufficient time mid-1990s. It is reported that fur seals Natural World Heritage site and was since regulations were put in place, to occasionally hunt and prey upon first protected under the Tristan da determine whether the current levels of rockhopper penguins, and Guinard et al. Cunha Wildlife Protection Ordinance in egg and animal collection are acting as (1998, p. 227) concluded that, even if 1950. Inaccessible Island, also in the stressors on the species in this area, we penguins represent a minor part of the Tristan da Cunha group, was given believe that with the recent regulations fur seal diet, the increase in predation protection under the Wildlife Protection in place, the effects of these activities on could be contributing to the declines of Ordinance in 1997 and added to the the species in this area have likely been northern rockhopper penguins observed Gough Island Wildlife Reserve World reduced since 2006, and we expect that at Amsterdam Island. The researchers Heritage site in 2004 (UNEP WCMC any as of yet unobserved effects of the indicated that further study is needed to 2008d, pp. 1–2; Ellis et al. 1998, p. 57). regulations would result in positive evaluate the effect of fur seals on Amsterdam Island was included in effects on the conservation of the rockhopper penguins. the French Antarctic National Park (Parc species. We have no reason to believe We acknowledge that fur seal National Antarctique Francais) in 1938 these collection and harvest activities predation has the potential to reduce (World Wildlife Fund and M. McGinley will increase over the current levels. We numbers of northern rockhopper 2007, p. 4). Extensive restoration efforts

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are underway at both Amsterdam and (not yet acting on the species and pairs. Although this species declined St. Paul Islands to restore native flora, therefore not yet manifested in a trend) severely in numbers over a large portion control introduced predators and, in that might affect the status of the of its range, these long-term, large-scale particular, to protect and restore the species. declines appear to have ended due to habitat of the endemic Amsterdam With respect to the northern the amelioration of historical threats: (1) albatross (Diomedea amsterdamensis) rockhopper penguin, the available data Northern rockhopper penguin (World Wildlife Fund and M. McGinley do not support a conclusion that there exploitation for use as bait at St. Paul 2007, p. 4). is a current overall trend in population Island ended in the 1940s, and the Regular monitoring of northern numbers although the evidence suggests species’ numbers there subsequently rockhopper penguins is reported to be that there may have been significant increased by 56 percent; (2) driftnet taking place at Tristan da Cunha, and declines in the past, and the overall fishing and penguin use for bait in the Gough, Amsterdam, and St. Paul Islands population numbers are high. As Tristan da Cunha region is now (Birdlife International 2007, p. 4). discussed above in the five-factor prohibited; (3) fisheries bycatch has The literature reviewed has not analysis, we were also unable to identify been reduced or eliminated; (4) egg highlighted any current deficiencies in any significant trends with respect to collection at Tristan da Cunha has been regulatory protection (Ellis et al. 1998, the stressors we identified. There is no restricted to traditional use for the small p. 57; BirdLife International 2007, p. 4), evidence that any of the stressors are local population and has been restricted and we have no reason to believe the growing in magnitude. Although we to certain areas since 2006; and (5) take existing regulatory mechanisms will be believe that recent restrictions on egg of individuals from the wild at Tristan reduced or will be less effective in the collection and take from the wild may da Cunha has also been limited by future. Therefore, on the basis of the manifest itself in the future in a positive regulation since 2006. Currently, the information before us, we find that the manner with respect to trends, with only recent documented declines are on existing regulatory mechanisms respect to the foreseeable future, we Gough Island, which only represents 10 regarding the conservation of northern have considered the ongoing effects of to 20 percent of the overall northern rockhopper penguins are adequate now current stressors at comparable levels. rockhopper population, but information and in the future throughout all or any There remains the question of is not available on the scope of the portion of the species’ range. whether we can reliably predict future declines on Gough Island. We also do events (as opposed to ongoing trends) not know if local declines on Gough Factor E: Other Natural or Manmade that will likely cause the species to Island are being offset by increases in Factors Affecting the Continued become endangered. As we discuss in other areas. Because there appears to be Existence of the Species the finding below, we acknowledge that no ongoing long-term decline, the Competition With Fisheries periodic take from the wild and species is neither endangered nor predation by fur seals may continue to threatened due to factors causing We have found no information reduce local numbers in some northern ongoing population declines, and the documenting competition for prey with rockhopper penguin colonies, but we overall population of 315,000–334,000 fisheries. Reports of possible bycatch have no reason to believe they will have breeding pairs appears robust. from driftnet fishing are identified as population-level impacts. We also We also considered whether any of having occurred in the past and not acknowledge that restricted egg the stressors began recently enough that likely to recur (BirdLife International collection for traditional use and their effects are not yet manifested in a 2007, p. 3). BirdLife International penguin banding activities may affect long-term decline, but are likely to have (2008a, p. 4) suggests that northern reproductive success in some colonies; that effect in the future. The small, rockhopper penguin food supplies may however, we have no reason to believe periodic decrease in numbers due to be affected by squid fisheries, but we these activities will have population- take from the wild is immediately have no supporting information to level impacts. Thus, the foreseeable reflected in population trends. Declines evaluate this factor as potential threat future includes consideration of the associated with fur seal predation began now or in the future. effects of these factors on the viability in the early 1970s, and since fur seal Oil pollution is a possible concern for of the northern rockhopper penguin. numbers leveled off through the 1990s, northern rockhopper penguins, but we there has been sufficient time for the Northern Rockhopper Penguin Finding have no information to conclude that effect on population numbers to be Throughout Its Range this rises to the level of a threat for this reflected in population trends. The species (Ellis et al. 2007, p. 5) now or We identified a number of likely limited number of bird-banding in the future. stressors to this species, including activities has been demonstrated to Therefore, we find that other natural traditional egg harvest, take of manifest their effects on reproductive or manmade factors are not a threat to individuals from the wild, bird banding success the year subsequent to the the northern rockhopper penguin associated with research activities, and banding activities. Any lag times throughout all or any portion of its predation by fur seals. To determine associated with egg collection are range now or in the future. whether stressors individually or unknown, but since this activity has collectively rise to a ‘‘threat’’ level such Foreseeable Future been severely restricted, we expect any that the northern rockhopper penguin is as of yet unobserved effects to be in the In considering the foreseeable future in danger of extinction throughout its positive direction. Therefore, the as it relates to the status of the northern range, or likely to become so within the northern rockhopper penguin is not rockhopper penguin, we considered the foreseeable future, we first considered threatened or endangered due to threats stressors acting on the species. We whether the stressors to the species that began recently enough that their considered the historical data to identify were causing a long-term, population- effects are not yet manifested in a long- any relevant existing trends that might scale decline in penguin numbers, or term decline. allow for reliable prediction of the were likely to do so in the future. Next, we considered whether any of future (in the form of extrapolating the As discussed above, the overall the stressors were likely to increase trends). We also considered whether we northern rockhopper population is within the foreseeable future, such that could reliably predict any future events estimated at 315,000–334,000 breeding the species is likely to become an

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endangered species in the foreseeable the stressors evaluated under the five ‘‘modestly,’’ but the limited information future. As discussed above, we factors in the Act, we also considered on the basis of this suggestion does not concluded that none of the stressors whether there were any significant allow a sufficient analysis of trends in were likely to increase significantly. portions of its range where the species this area. Trends at Nightingale and Having determined that a current or is in danger of extinction or likely to Middle Islands are, likewise, poorly future declining trend does not justify become so in the foreseeable future. See known, and no information is available listing the northern rockhopper our analysis for southern rockhopper for trends at Stoltenhof Island. In penguin, we next considered whether penguin for how we make this summary, given the numbers reported the species met the definition of an determination. above, there appear to be from 146,200– endangered species or threatened The northern rockhopper penguin is 156,500 breeding pairs of northern species on account of its present or found in two primary areas of the South rockhopper penguins in the Tristan da likely future absolute numbers. The Atlantic and Indian Oceans. In our five- Cunha Island group, not including those total population of approximately factor analysis, we did not identify any on Stoltenhof Island. Numbers appear 315,000–334,000 breeding pairs appears factor that was found to be a threat to stable at Tristan, the main island, but robust. It is not so low that, despite our the species throughout its range. In our since trends are unknown throughout conclusion that there is no ongoing status review, we identified Gough the remainder of this region, we are decline, the species is at such risk from Island, Tristan da Cunha, and unable to establish an overall trend for stochastic events that it is currently in Amsterdam Island as areas where the region. danger of extinction. declines have occurred, indicating the Based on our five-factor analysis, we Finally, we considered whether, even possibility that the species may be found that the known historical threats if the size of the current population threatened or endangered there. to this species in this region have been ameliorated: (1) Driftnet fishing and makes the species viable, it is likely to Gough Island become endangered in the foreseeable penguin use for bait is now prohibited; future because stochastic events might The most recent population estimates (2) fisheries bycatch has been reduced reduce its current numbers to the point indicate that over the past 45 years, or eliminated; (3) egg collection has where its viability would be in question. numbers have declined by about 96 been restricted to traditional use for the Because of the wide distribution of this percent on Gough Island, where there small local population and has been species, combined with its high are currently estimated to be 32,000– restricted to certain areas since 2006; population numbers, even if a stochastic 65,000 breeding pairs (Cuthbert in litt., and (4) take of individuals from the wild event were to occur within the as cited in BirdLife International 2008a, has also been limited by regulation foreseeable future, negatively affecting p. 2–3). Numbers on this island are since 2006. In our five-factor analysis, this species, the population would still reported to have experienced large we were unable to identify any current be unlikely to be reduced to such a low declines prior to the 1980s (BirdLife threats to the species in this area, and level that it would then be in danger of International 2008a, p. 2), but were we have no reason to believe this will extinction. stable between 1982 and 2000 (Cuthbert change in the future. Therefore, we find The best available information and Sommer 2004, p. 101). Although that the northern rockhopper penguin is suggests that the historical long-term, recent unpublished reports are said to not threatened or endangered in this large-scale population declines have indicate recent substantial declines on portion of its range, and we ended, largely due to an amelioration of Gough Island (Jouventin et al. 2006, p. consequently need not address the historical threats to the species. 3,422), more detailed information on question of significance. these declines is not currently available. Therefore, we conclude that the Amsterdam Island northern rockhopper penguin is neither Therefore, we cannot assess the regional an endangered species nor likely to extent in the declines or the magnitude The overall numbers at Amsterdam become an endangered species in the of the decline. This precludes us from Island declined 57 percent between foreseeable future throughout all of its being able to evaluate the overall trend 1971, when there were 58,000 pairs, and range. in numbers at Gough Island, and given 1993, when there were 24,890 pairs. the recent emergence of the reported During the last period from 1988–1993, Distinct Population Segment decline, we are not able to predict if the the numbers fluctuated widely. For the A discussion of distinct population decrease in numbers will continue into years that survey data are available—in segments and the Service policy can be the future. We have not identified any 1988, there were 39,871 pairs (69 found above in the southern rockhopper threat to the species in this area, nor do percent of the 1971 estimate); in 1990, penguin Distinct Population Segment we have reason to believe this will there were 30,000 pairs (51 percent); in section. change within the foreseeable future. 1991, there were 17,400 pairs (30 We are not aware of any information Therefore, we find that the northern percent); in 1992, there were 35,000 that would lead us to conclude that the rockhopper penguin is not threatened or pairs (60 percent); and in 1993, there northern rockhopper penguin is endangered in this portion of its range, were 24,890 pairs (43 percent). Given comprised of population segments that and we consequently need not address the wide fluctuations in this period, are either discrete or significant. the question of significance. with both increases and decreases in Therefore, we have not analyzed the numbers, with the last year of data Tristan da Cunha northern rockhopper penguin under the above the lowest figure recorded, it is Service’s DPS policy. It is reported that from 130 years ago not possible to conclude that an overall until about 30 years ago the main island declining trend has continued after this Significant Portion of the Range of Tristan experienced a decline of period. The wide fluctuations in this Analysis about 98 percent. However, since period and the ability of numbers of Having determined that the northern numbers have been stable for the past breeding pairs to rebound by 100 rockhopper penguin is not now in few decades, there is currently no percent between two breeding seasons danger of extinction throughout all of its ongoing long-term decline there. At suggest that observed numbers at range or likely to become so in the Inaccessible Island, numbers are breeding colonies during years of low foreseeable future as a consequence of reported to have possibly declined numbers in 1991 and perhaps in 1993

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are not representative of the actual (Trathan et al. 2006, p. 242). In 2000– region from the waters around the abundance in these years. There have 01 at Marion Island in the southwestern western Antarctic Peninsula and the been no survey data at Amsterdam Indian Ocean, about 53 colonies were Scotia Sea (Trathan et al. 2003, p. 569; Island for the past 15 years, and given distributed around the entire perimeter Trathan et al. 2006, p. 240; Reid and the wide fluctuations during the last of the 12 × 7 mi (19 × 12 km) island. Croxall 2001, p. 382; Fraser and period of surveys, we cannot reliably Colonies at Marion Island range in size Hoffman 2003, p. 13). During the winter predict a future population trend. The from a few breeding pairs to two large the birds leave the colonies, reportedly most recent population estimate of colonies of 143,000 and 186,812 foraging widely north of the Antarctic 24,890 breeding pairs is above breeding pairs, respectively (Crawford et Convergence and have been reported previously low numbers, and based on al. 2003, p. 478). from the waters of Australia, New our five-factor analysis, we have not The basic life history of macaroni Zealand, southern Brazil, Tristan da identified any threat to the species in penguins at breeding sites has been Cunha, and South Africa (Shirihai 2002, this area, nor do we have reason to well-described, and there is reported to p. 77). believe this will change in the future. be little variation in the breeding The range of adults foraging at sea Therefore, we find that the northern biology of the members of the genus during ‘‘brood guard’’ (a portion of the rockhopper penguin is not threatened or Eudyptes as a whole (Crawford et al. chick provisioning stage—the period endangered in this portion of its range, 2003, pp. 477–482). At both South when males stay ashore to guard the and we consequently need not address Georgia and Marion Islands, after chicks) is very tightly constrained, with the question of significance. spending the winter at sea from May to females making limited duration September, breeding birds arrive at the foraging trips lasting about 12 hours Final Determination for the Northern colony synchronously in mid-October. (Trathan et al. 2006, p. 240). At South Rockhopper Penguin During pre-breeding, incubation, and Georgia Island, females, when leaving On the basis of analysis of the five chick-brooding, the adults fast for long the individual colonies, swim in straight factors and the best available scientific periods ashore, alternating with long lines along colony-specific trajectories and commercial information, we find periods at sea. At Marion Island, toward predictable prey aggregations at that listing the northern rockhopper incubation was 35 days; chicks gathered the edge of the continental shelf. If prey penguin as threatened or endangered into cre`ches at 23–25 days and fledged is encountered before they reach the under the Act in all or any significant at 60 days around the third week of shelf edge, they stop and feed until they portion of its range is not warranted. February (Crawford et al. 2003, p. 482). either return to the colony or move After abandoning the chicks, the adults farther offshore to find more prey Macaroni Penguin leave the colony to feed and then return (Trathan et al. 2006, p. 248). In moving Background to molt before leaving the colonies for in predictable directions offshore during Biology the winter. Age at first breeding at all parts of the chick provisioning stage, Marion Island is 2–3 years (Crawford et penguins move towards waters The macaroni penguin (Eudyptes al. 2003, p. 482). influenced by the southern ACC front, chrysolophus) is a large, yellow-crested, Given its large numbers and its an area where krill abundance has been black-and-white penguin that inhabits widespread distribution, the macaroni shown to be generally higher (Trathan et sub-Antarctic islands from the tip of penguin is considered to be one of the al. 2006, p. 249; Trathan et al. 2003, pp. South America eastwards to the Indian most abundant bird consumers of 577, 579). These studies illustrate the Ocean (BirdLife International 2007, p. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). In importance of the southern ACC front in 1). It breeds in 16 colonies at 50 sites in: global terms, the species is considered transporting krill from the region of the Southern Chile, Falkland Islands, South to be one of the most important avian Antarctic Peninsula to the waters of Georgia and the South Sandwich predators, possibly consuming more South Georgia Island (Trathan et al. Islands, South Orkney and South food than any other seabird species 2006, p. 240; Reid and Croxall 2001, p. Shetland Islands, Bouvet Island, Prince (Trathan et al. 2006, pp. 239–240 ; 380). Edward and Marion Islands, Crozet Brooke 2004, p. 248). Islands, Kerguelen Islands, Heard and Feeding habits studies have identified Population MacDonald Islands, and locally on the a variety of prey species consumed by In 1993, the worldwide population of Antarctic Peninsula (Woehler 1993, pp. macaroni penguins. At Marion Island, macaroni penguins was estimated at 52–56; BirdLife International 2007, pp. they were found to feed on crustaceans, 11.8 million pairs (Woehler 1993, p. 52). 2–3). mainly a decapod shrimp (Nauticaris Current estimates place the total Breeding colonies range in size from marionis), euphausids (krill) population at 9 million pairs (BirdLife a few breeding pairs to large colonies of (Euphaudia vallenti and Thyssanoessa International 2007, p. 2; Ellis et al. 2007, up to 180,000 breeding pairs or more vicina), and amphipods (Themisto p. 5; Ellis et al. 1998, p. 60), although (Crawford et al. 2003, p. 478; Trathan et gaudichaudii) (Crawford et al. 2003, p. due to potential underestimates in the al. 2006, p. 242). For example, at South 484). At South Georgia Island, the South Georgia Island region (see South Georgia Island in the South Atlantic, primary mass of the diet of macaroni Atlantic Ocean discussion below), this there are approximately 17 main penguins was found to contain krill estimate is, therefore, also likely to be breeding aggregations, ranging in size (Euphausia superba (Antarctic krill) and an underestimate of the overall from 1,000 breeding pairs at Sheathbill Thysanoessa sp.), decapod shrimp population size. Bay to 2,560,000 breeding pairs at the (Chorismus antarcticus), and Willis Islands (Trathan et al. 2006, p. amphipods (Themisto gaudichaudii), as South Atlantic Ocean 241; Trathan et al. 1998, p. 266). Within well as a number of cephalopod and fish In 1980, there were approximately 5.4 these larger locations are individual species (Croxall et al. 1999, p. 128). million pairs colonies. For example, at Bird Island, Macaroni penguins leave their ± 25 to 50 percent, (Woehler 1993, pp. the Fairy Point colony has about 500– colonies to forage at sea during the 3, 55) of macaroni penguins at South 600 pairs, Goldcrest Point colony has breeding season. At South Georgia Georgia Island, yielding a range of 2.7– 43,811 pairs, and Macaroni Cwm colony Island, they forage in waters bathed by 8.1 million pairs. At that same location, has about 10,000 breeding pairs the ACC, which transports krill to the the current estimates are 2.5–2.7 million

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pairs (BirdLife International 2007, p. 3; Indian Ocean Moving eastward in the southern DEFRA 2007, p. 2). The current Indian Ocean, Woehler (1993, p. 52; estimate, however, is likely to be an In the Prince Edward Islands (South BirdLife International 2007, p. 4) underestimate as it is based on African Territory), there are about reported up to 2 million breeding pairs extrapolations of counts in smaller areas 300,000 pairs reported at Marion Island at the Crozet Island. Farther east at the to predict numbers in larger areas—an and 9,000 pairs at Prince Edward Island Kerguelen Islands, there are reported to estimation technique of questionable (Crawford and Cooper 2003, p. 417; be about 1.8 million pairs of macaroni use in this species (for example, at the Crawford 2007, p. 9). At Marion Island, penguin, with a reported increase of 1 Prince Edward Islands in the Indian there was a decline from 434,000 pairs percent per year between 1962 and Ocean, extrapolations of declining in 1994–95 to 356,000 pairs in 2002–03, 1985, and 1998 data indicate colonies trends at small study colonies to but given the magnitude of the are stable or increasing (BirdLife estimates of overall trends for the population numbers, this 18-percent International 2007, p. 4). overall island were not supported by decline over the 8-year time period is not considered to be a significant The Heard and McDonald Islands empirical data; declines at larger south of the Kerguelen Islands are colonies were much less significant than change in the population (Crawford et al. 2003, p. 485). In the three subsequent reported to have about 1 million those at small colonies (Crawford et al. breeding pairs each (Birdlife 2003, p. 485)). breeding years (2003–06) small fluctuations between 350,000 and International 2007, p. 3; Woehler 1993, At South Georgia Island, the current 300,000 pairs were observed (Crawford p. 53). There are no reports of trends. overall number was extrapolated from 2007, p. 9). bird counts at a selected number of Other Status Classifications On a local scale at Marion Island, colonies that had declined by 50 percent The macaroni penguin is categorized over the last 2 decades of the 20th significant declines in three small study colonies (each under 1,000 pairs) have as ‘Vulnerable’ by IUCN Criteria because century (BirdLife International 2007, p. ‘‘overall a majority of the world 3; Trathan et al. 2006, pp. 249–250). The been reported, although the extent of the declines is questionable. Monitoring of population appears to have decreased conclusion that the overall South by at least 30 percent over 36 years Georgia numbers had halved during that these colonies between 1979–80 and 2002–03 indicated a cumulative (three generations).’’ However, it is same time period has not been noted that this ‘‘classification relies empirically verified in the literature decrease in numbers by 88 percent (Crawford et al. 2003, p. 485); however, heavily on extrapolation from small- (Trathan et al. 1998, p. 265; Trathan and scale data, and large-scale surveys are Croxall 2004, p. 125; Trathan et al. changes in survey methodology, as explained below, limit the needed to confirm the categorization’’ 2006, pp. 249–250; Trathan 2004, p. (BirdLife International 2007, p. 1). 342). Furthermore, given the large comparability of the survey data, calling variability in the 1980s estimate (2.7–8.1 into question actual changes in Population Summary million pairs) combined with the likely population numbers. While Crawford et underestimate of current numbers at al. (2003, p. 485) and Crawford (2007, p. Current estimates place the total South Georgia Island (2.5–2.7 million 9) reported that the total number of population of macaroni penguins at 9 pairs), we cannot reliably determine that breeding pairs in these colonies million pairs (BirdLife International there has been any decline in overall (comprising 9 to 20 percent of the total 2007, p. 2; Ellis et al. 2007, p. 5; Ellis population numbers at South Georgia breeding numbers at Marion Island) et al. 1998, p. 60). Although penguin Island, nor can we reliably predict a decreased by 60 percent from 1994–95 numbers appear to have declined by declining population trend in the future. to 2002–03, after a long period of about 32 percent in the Prince Edward relative stability, a sudden drop in Islands since the late 1970s, this area South of the large concentrations of numbers appeared at the same time as represents only 3.4 percent of the macaroni penguins at South Georgia an apparent shift in the investigators’ overall current macaroni penguin Island, there are small colonies scattered survey or tallying methodology population. As described above, in other locally around South Shetland Islands (Crawford et al. 2003, p. 478). Despite parts of the species’ range, trends are (about 7,080 total pairs), South Orkney the declines reported, breeding success increasing, stable, or unknown due to Islands (about 50 pairs), and South increased from 1995–96 to 2004–05 in poor or scant data. Given the different Sandwich Islands (about 3,000 pairs), study colonies (Crawford et al. 2003, p. population dynamics observed and a pair reported on the Antarctic 484). throughout the range of the macaroni Peninsula (Woehler 1993, p. 54–55; penguin, as described above, we cannot BirdLife International 2007, p. 3). At Prince Edward Island, which has a fraction of the macaroni penguins of its reliably predict nor do we have reason In the southeast Atlantic Ocean at neighboring Marion Island, numbers to believe that the overall population Bouvet Island (Norwegian Territory), declined from approximately 17,000 numbers will decline in the future. there were some 100,000 breeding pairs pairs in 1976–77 to an estimated 9,000 in the 1960s and early 1970s, but these Summary of Factors Affecting the pairs in 2001–02 (Crawford et al. 2003, Species are reported to have ‘‘subsequently p. 483). According to the more current decreased’’ but there is no current information provided here, the current Factor A: The Present or Threatened estimate (BirdLife International 2007, p. IUCN figures overestimate the Destruction, Modification, or 3; Woehler 1993, p. 52). percentage decline of the macaroni Curtailment of Its Habitat or Range Macaroni penguins also breed in penguin at the Prince Edward Islands Terrestrial Habitat small colonies in approximately 8 (BirdLife International 2007, p. 3). island sites around the southern tip of Summing the figures provided above on We have found no current reports of South America in southern Chile with overall population declines at Marion threats to the terrestrial breeding habitat abundance totaling up to 75,000 pairs and Prince Edward Islands, we calculate of the macaroni penguin, and we have and are reported to be stable (Woehler the total decline for the two islands to no reason to believe threats to the 1993, p. 56; BirdLife International 2007, be approximately 32 percent since 1979, terrestrial habitat will emerge in the p. 4). instead of the 50 percent reported. future.

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Reduced Prey Availability fluctuations in their preferred prey gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua), Changes in the availability of prey to (krill). and black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanphrys). For data the macaroni penguin have been Reduction of Prey Due to Competition hypothesized for declines observed in averaged over the decade of the 1980s, Barlow et al. (2002, pp. 205–213) the two penguin species and the study colonies at Marion and South examined whether the decreased Georgia Islands. Below, we discuss both Antarctic fur seals were consistently availability of krill for macaroni consuming the majority of their krill the potential impacts of low prey penguins at South Georgia Island is a availability, as well as potential causes diet from the largest of three size classes result of competition with the other identified. For the decade of the 1990s, of reduced prey availability, including major krill predator in the region, the interspecific competition and climate- there was a change in all three species Antarctic fur seal. Study colonies of toward consuming krill in the middle related changes in the marine macaroni penguins have declined at environment. In Factor E, we discuss size class (Reid and Croxall 2001, p. South Georgia Island over the past 2 380). At the same time, negative changes the potential impacts of fisheries on decades (see Population discussion in the reproductive performance of all prey availability. above), while fur seal numbers have At Marion Island, moderate decreases four species were recorded. For increased at a very rapid rate since the macaroni penguins in the colonies in macaroni penguin numbers have 1950s. The fur seal has recovered from been attributed to an altered availability studied, arrival condition and near extinction in the first half of the reproductive output declined of food (Crawford and Cooper 2003, p. 20th century (to 400,000 in 1972 and to 417) based on changes in weight of significantly in the second decade after more than 3 million individuals stability in penguin numbers in those returning birds after a winter at sea and breeding at South Georgia Island at the colonies in the 1980s. These results variations in mass of chicks at fledging present day), and they have expanded suggest that in the 1980s the biomass of (Crawford et al. 2006, pp. 185–186), but their breeding range across the krill in the largest size class was there is currently insufficient research northwest end of South Georgia Island sufficient to support predator demand, evaluating the causes of declines at (Barlow et al. 2002, p. 206). These but it was not in the 1990s (Reid and Marion Island to draw science-based researchers found at the Bird Island Croxall 2001, p. 378). conclusions. study site that there was substantial Indices of reproductive output for At South Georgia Island, researchers overlap in the foraging range of macaroni penguins in study colonies have looked in depth at the foraging macaroni penguins and Antarctic fur declined over the period from 1980– behavior and diet of macaroni penguins seals during the breeding season, and 2000 (Reid and Croxall 2001, pp. 379– and other marine predators and related that the size and nature of krill prey 380). While it is difficult to separate the them to interspecific competition, prey consumed were very similar. They were relative contribution to this decline switching, and changes in the overall unable to determine if the different from interspecific competition versus food base. While krill is known as the population trajectories of the two reduction of krill due to other reasons, primary prey of the macaroni penguins, species during the same period reflected macaroni penguins were found to be at South Georgia Island study colonies, ‘‘different and independent species- unique among the four predator species the percentage of krill in the diet at Bird specific responses to variation in krill studied because they were able to Island declined significantly from 1980– availability, or whether (or to what compensate for low availability of krill 2000, particularly after 1995 (Reid and extent) they have been substantially by switching to other prey (Reid and Croxall 2001, p. 379). During this influenced by direct interspecific Croxall 2001, pp. 379, 381; Croxall et al. period, there was also a decline in the competition’’ (Barlow et al. 2002, p. 1999, p. 117). small Bird Island study colony (Reid 211). Therefore, although the Reid and Croxall (2001, p. 383) and Croxall 2001, p. 379). The researchers suggest there is a dynamic concluded that the balance between percentage of krill in the macaroni interaction that currently favors krill supply and predator demand penguin diet was significantly Antarctic fur seals over macaroni altered substantially from 1980–2000. correlated to the density of krill in the penguins in the study area, this They suggested that a combination of region and was also directly related to suggestion is speculation because the two factors: (1) Changes in the krill prey-switching by the penguins (Barlow empirical data have not distinguished population structure arriving from the et al. 2002, p. 211). In 1984, for whether the penguins and fur seals each Antarctic Peninsula source region, and example, krill was abundant and have different and independent (2) increased predator-induced mortality comprised 95 percent of the mass of responses to the variation in krill on the larger size classes of krill arriving prey in the diet of macaroni penguins availability or, alternatively, whether in the region effectively removed the studied at South Georgia Island (Croxall the two species have been influenced by buffer of krill abundance and increased et al. 1999, p. 115). However, in years being in direct competition with each ‘‘the frequency of years where the when krill abundance was reduced, as other (i.e., the research has not amount of krill is insufficient to support in 1994 when there was a four-fold confirmed that competition is predator demand’’ (Reid and Croxall decrease in krill biomass from 1984, the occurring). Furthermore, given that the 2001, p. 383). They suggested that this penguins studied shifted their diet to level of interspecific competition is buffer or ‘‘krill surplus’’ noted in the other prey species, including uncertain, the authors’ prediction that 1980s may have dated from the time amphipods (63.2 percent of the mass in competition will likely increase as fur when whaling severely reduced the the diet) and fish species (15 percent, in seals continue to increase (Barlow et al. numbers of great whales in the Southern particular, myctophids (Krefftichthys 2002, p. 212) is also speculation. Ocean. This unusually high temporary anderssonii) and channichthids With respect to changes in the krill biomass of krill might have supported a (Pseudochaenichthys georgianus)), abundance at South Georgia Island, Reid higher biomass of predators, potentially while krill comprised only 13.1 percent and Croxall (2001, pp. 377–384) resulting in artificially high population of the diet (Croxall et al. 1999, p. 117). examined population demographics of numbers of certain predator species, This prey-switching behavior suggests the krill prey in the diets of four marine such as macaroni penguins. We that the macaroni penguin has some predators breeding at Bird Island— acknowledge that the change in adaptability in adjusting to temporary Antarctic fur seals, macaroni penguins, ecosystem dynamics could lead to a

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new predator-prey equilibrium, compared these data against cyclical cohort would have been expected to whereby, some species temporarily variability in sea-ice extent between spawn again and, at South Georgia decline in numbers. This possibility 1973 and 1996. Analyses have shown Island, krill predators, including precludes our ability to reliable that WAP sea-ice extent exhibits 4- to 5- macaroni penguins at study colonies, extrapolate population trends into the year cycles of high ice years followed by began to decline significantly after being future, as long as population numbers several low-ice years. The cycles follow stable throughout the 1980s (Fraser and are relatively high, as they are in the the periodicity of the Antarctic Hoffman 2003, p. 13). The authors noted macaroni penguin. Circumpolar Wave (a phenomenon of that two or more closely spaced senescence events of this sort would Reduction of Prey Due to Climate- interannual anomalies in the have devastating consequences on the Related Changes in the Marine atmospheric pressure, wind stress, sea structure and function of krill Environment surface temperature, and sea-ice extent over the Southern Ocean that propagates populations and the ecosystems they Changes in climate could potentially eastward with a period of over 4–5 years support (Fraser and Hoffman 2003, p. impact aspects of the marine and takes 8–10 years to circle the globe) 13). environment such as sea surface (White and Peterson 1996, p. 699; Fraser The study of Trathan et al. (2003, p. temperatures or shifts in currents, and Hoffman 2003, p. 8). At the WAP, 581) described 2 years of ‘‘particularly ultimately leading to changes in prey Fraser and Hoffman (2003, p. 6) high’’ krill abundance and 2 years of availability. Reid and Croxall (2001, p. identified the beginning of five cycles ‘‘particularly low’’ krill abundance 377) hypothesized that changes in the between the 1973–74 and 1996–97 field during the 1990s. The study raises Antarctic Peninsula region could affect seasons, and tracked four complete questions as to the ability to generalize the recruitment of the Antarctic krill cycles (two 4-year, one 5-year, and one comparisons between the 1980s and populations that supply the South 6-year). They looked at trends in krill 1990s to the current period (2001 to the Georgia Island marine ecosystem. Reid size classes within the diet of Adelie present), for which we currently have et al. (2002, p. 1) showed that the size penguins and found that years of high little or no empirical data either for krill structure of the local South Georgia krill recruitment followed years of or macaroni penguin abundance or Island krill population tracked closely maximum September (winter) sea-ice reproductive output. The decadal with krill-recruitment events in the extent (Fraser and Hoffman 2003, p. 6). analyses of krill abundance and Elephant Island region at the In the years following high krill- macaroni penguin reproductive output northeastern tip of the Western recruitment years, the Adelie penguin at study colonies at South Georgia Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Events at diet reflected the consumption of larger Island through the year 2000 (Reid and Elephant Island, in turn, have been and larger krill each year as the Croxall 2001, p. 377), and of krill found to be coherent with events at the dominant large cohort grew, through a response off the WAP to climate change, Peninsula itself (Fraser and Hoffman 4-to 5-year period, until the next large physical forcing (e.g., shifts in current or 2003, p. 9). krill-recruitment year occurred. temperature patterns), and ecosystem Trathan et al. (2003, p. 581) response, suggest that the krill concluded that physical data at the The strong age classes produced in a populations and the ecosystems they spatial and temporal resolution good ice year become the core spawning inhabit have become more vulnerable to necessary to identify possible stock for the next cyclical sea-ice climate-induced perturbations (Fraser relationships between large-scale maximum, generally 4 or 5 years away, and Hoffman 2003, p. 13) and that variability within the ACC and the krill with smaller cohorts in the intervening overall krill abundance has declined biomass at South Georgia Island are not years. Krill reach the limit of their life significantly in the last few decades available. They did note, on a span after 5 years, and this age class is (Atkinson et al. 2004, p. 101; Loeb et al. preliminary basis, that periods of high reduced from several years of predation 1997, p. 897). krill abundance (i.e., January 1992 and and mortality. We have discussed above January 1998) were linked to unusually the work of Fraser and Hoffman (2003, Conclusion for South Georgia Island low sea surface temperatures in the pp. 1–15), who reviewed the krill cycle Significant changes in krill abundance southern ACC front near South Georgia and the recruitment of krill and related and composition have been documented Island and that periods of krill scarcity them to cyclical patterns of sea-ice in study colonies of macaroni penguins were linked to sea surface temperatures extent at the WAP. Of significance to the on South Georgia Island during a period in the upper 20 percent of recorded observed trends at South Georgia Island, of decline (up to 50 percent) of values (i.e., January 1991 and January a 6-year ice cycle occurred between macaroni penguins in those colonies 1994) (Trathan et al. 2003, p. 581). In 1980 and 1986 (a gap unique in the over the last 2 decades of the 20th describing warm and cold anomalies in contemporary WAP sea-ice record), century. Although these declines have the temperature of the southern ACC which had significant consequences for been associated with a variety of factors, front, these authors did not address the krill recruitment (Fraser and Hoffman including: (1) Variations in the question of whether there are consistent 2003, p. 12). This ‘‘senescence event’’ in temperature of the ACC at South directional changes occurring in the which the large krill cohort originating Georgia Island (Trathan et al. 2003, p. temperature of this current (Trathan et from the 1980 sea-ice maxima may have 581) and cycles of sea-ice extent at the al. 2003, pp. 569–582). died before they could reproduce and WAP, which have affected krill Fraser and Hoffman (2003, pp. 1–15) contribute to the next generation of recruitment (Fraser and Hoffman 2003, reviewed the krill cycle and the recruits may have led to a loss of most p. 13), and (2) increases in numbers of recruitment of krill and related them to of the strong 1980–81 cohort and its Antarctic fur seals, which share the cyclical patterns of sea-ice extent at the reproductive potential (Fraser and same food, suggesting competition, not WAP. In studies similar to those at Hoffman 2003, p. 12). The authors enough information is known about South Georgia Island, the authors suggested this may have had major these relationships to predict the examined data on krill size classes in ecological consequences. availability of krill to macaroni the diet of a different species, the Adelie Correspondingly, krill abundance was at penguins in the future. penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) near its lowest recorded levels at Elephant Despite concurrent declines in Palmer Station on the WAP, and Island in 1990, at the time the lost macaroni penguin numbers and

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increases in fur seal numbers in certain overall population numbers will decline (Crawford and Cooper 2003, p. 418). areas of the South Georgia region, in the future as a result of the marine Although parasites and disease have not studies have not confirmed that changes identified. Therefore, we find been identified as stressors at this island competition between the two species is that the present or threatened or other areas of the Prince Edward occurring. Therefore, we cannot make destruction, modification, or Islands, the potential susceptibility of reliable predictions about whether curtailment of the species’ marine sub-Antarctic penguins to haematozoan competition will occur in the habitat or range is not a threat to the vectors has been recognized, and so foreseeable future, much less to what macaroni penguin in the South Georgia strict measures have been put in place extent it would affect the availability of Island portion of its range now or in the at the Prince Edward Islands to krill to the macaroni penguin. foreseeable future. minimize the possibility of introducing Although it is possible that climate change will result in changes within the Conclusion for the Remainder of the avian diseases. Therefore, we do not ACC and krill biomass and/or the Macaroni Penguin’s Range have reason to believe that disease will frequency or severity of krill At Marion Island, moderate decreases become a threat at the Prince Edward ‘‘senescence events,’’ potentially in macaroni penguin numbers have Islands in the foreseeable future. Disease affecting the macaroni penguin been attributed to an altered availability has not been identified as a threat to population in the South Georgia Island of food (Crawford and Cooper 2003, p. macaroni penguins in any other areas of region, we do not have sufficient 417), but there is currently insufficient the species’ range, nor do we have physical data at the spatial and temporal research evaluating the causes of reason to believe disease will become a resolution necessary to identify or declines at Marion Island to draw any threat in any portion of the species’ predict possible trends or relationships conclusions about the causes, much less range within the foreseeable future. between large-scale variability within make predictions about future trends of Therefore, we find that disease is not a the ACC, sea ice changes, and potential prey availability in that area. There is no threat to the macaroni penguin in any changes in the krill biomass. information available suggesting that a portion of its range now or in the Aside from our inability to identify reduction in prey availability is a threat foreseeable future. future trends related to krill availability to the macaroni penguin in any other to the macaroni penguin at South portion of the species’ range. Predation has not been cited as a Georgia Island, neither do we have Although penguin numbers appear to threat in macaroni penguins. Although enough information on the adaptability have declined by about 32 percent in predation by feral cats has been reported of the macaroni penguin to changing the Prince Edward Islands since the late on Kerguelen Archipelago, remains of krill availability. For example we do not 1970s, this area represents only 3.4 macaroni penguins were rarely found in know the extent of flexibility it has in: percent of the overall current macaroni scat analyses from feral cats there (1) Relying on a greater diversity of prey penguin population. As described above (Pontier et al. 2002, p. 835), and the rare species to satisfy its long-term biological (see Population discussion), in other exceptions could have been a result of needs; (2) altering its foraging routes; or parts of the species’ range, trends are scavenging on carcasses as opposed to (3) moving its breeding locations closer increasing, stable, or unknown due to predation. There have been no reported to more dependable food supplies. poor or scant data. Given the different local or large-scale declines in macaroni Despite our inability to predict future population dynamics observed penguin numbers at the Kerguelen trends with regard to changes in prey throughout the remainder of the range of Islands, and in fact, there were reported availability to the macaroni penguin or the macaroni penguin, we cannot increases in numbers there at a rate of its ability to adapt to those potential reliably predict nor do we have reason 1 percent per year between 1962 and changes, we do not believe that the to believe that the overall population 1985. The 1998 data indicate colonies changes in food availability currently numbers will decline in the future as a are stable or increasing (BirdLife acting on the macaroni penguin result of marine changes. Therefore, we population at South Georgia Island are International 2007, p. 4). This suggests find that the present or threatened that predation is not affecting the causing a long-term decline in this destruction, modification, or population. Although numbers may macaroni penguin numbers there. There curtailment of the species’ marine is no information available that suggests have declined locally, these declines habitat or range is not a threat to the the number of predators at the could have been offset, at least to some macaroni penguin in any other portion Kerguelen Islands will increase in the extent, by increases elsewhere within of its range now or in the foreseeable the South Georgia Island region, and the future. foreseeable future or that the current population continues to survive there in potential predators will begin to affect large numbers. Factor B: Overutilization for penguins in the foreseeable future. Macaroni penguins at South Georgia Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or Therefore, we do not consider predation Island appear to have some ability to Educational Purposes to be a stressor, much less a threat to switch to different prey at times of low We are not aware of any macaroni penguins on the Kerguelen krill abundance. Given its flexibility in overutilization for commercial, Archipelago. There is no information switching to alternative prey species recreational, scientific, or educational available that suggests predation is a and the estimated abundance of the purposes that is a threat to the macaroni threat to macaroni penguins in any macaroni penguin population at South penguin in any portion of its range other portion of its range, now, nor do Georgia Island (2.5–2.7 million pairs, (BirdLife International 2007, pp. 1–3; we expect it to become a threat in the and likely greater due to potential Ellis et al. 1998, p. 61) now or in the foreseeable future. underestimates), we believe that this foreseeable future. population can withstand disturbances Based on review of the best available linked to the marine changes identified. Factor C: Disease or Predation scientific and commercial information, Given the lack of comprehensive survey No blood-borne parasites we find that predation is not a threat to data throughout the South Georgia (haematozoa) were found in any of 89 the macaroni penguin in any portion of Islands, we cannot reliably predict, nor blood smears from macaroni penguins its range now or in the foreseeable do we have reason to believe, that the collected at Marion Island in 2001 future.

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Factor D: The Inadequacy of Existing their analysis of predator response to 97); these are being evaluated in a series Regulatory Mechanisms changes in krill abundance, Reid and of meetings that have taken place over The macaroni penguin is widely Croxall (2001, p. 383) note that the the last 3 years; and by spring 2008, a distributed on largely uninhabited fishery near South Georgia Island is model will be developed to allocate islands in the territories of seven small and that total catches actually catch limits (Trivelpiece 2008, pers. countries and the region under the declined by almost 50 percent since comm.). This model will allow testing of jurisdiction of the Antarctic Treaty and 1980 for commercial reasons, rather different approaches to allocating catch the Convention for the Conservation of than due to lack of krill abundance. and lead to recommendations to the Antarctic Marine Living Resources They do not cite competition with krill Scientific Committee and the CCAMLR (CCAMLR). Breeding islands are largely fisheries as a contributor to macaroni Commission (Hewitt et al. 2004, p. 84). inaccessible, access is tightly controlled, penguin declines (Reid and Croxall This work to establish decision rules and most of them are under protected 2001, p. 383); however, given that we includes assessing: (1) Spatial and status (BirdLife International 2007, p. 4; have already identified the reduced temporal use of the area by krill Ellis et al. 1998, p. 61). South Georgia availability of krill as a stressor to the predators and fisheries; (2) fluxes of Island is administered by the macaroni penguin (see Factor A), we krill into and out of the area; (3) Government of South Georgia and South recognize that commercial krill fisheries competition between species; and (4) Sandwich Islands (GSGSSI). Research have the potential to contribute as one how to manage these areas to respond on macaroni penguins in South Georgia, of several sources of this stressor. With to ecosystem change (Croxall and Nicol for example at Bird Island, which is a respect to the local macaroni penguin 2004, p. 573). In support of Specially Protected Area under the declines observed, Reid and Croxall development of allocation approaches at South Georgia Environmental (2001, p. 383) note that the potential for the level of SSMUs, CCAMLR has Management Plan, is conducted by the competition with krill fisheries should already adopted a requirement that krill British Antarctic Survey under annual be taken into account in future catches be reported to very small permits from the GSGSSI. Visitation to CCAMLR krill management strategies. geographical detail (10 x 10 nm) and South Georgia is tightly controlled with Croxall and Nicol (2004, pp. 570–574) over small 10-day time scales (Hewitt et visitors’ permits required prior to reported on the ongoing efforts within al. 2004, p. 84). Parallel efforts by the visiting research sites (British Antarctic CCAMLR to improve management CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Survey 2008, p. 2). The Australian procedures for the krill fishery in long- Program involve monitoring selected islands of Heard and McDonald are also established fisheries areas and sub-areas predator, prey, and environmental World Heritage sites with limited or no in the Southern Ocean. These included indicators of ecosystem status to detect visitation and with management plans improving the overall estimation of krill and record changes in critical in place (UNEP WCMC 2008, p. 6). In to redefine catch limits over large components of the ecosystem and 1995, the Prince Edward Islands Special sectors of the Southern Ocean (Croxall distinguish the impacts of harvesting Nature Preserve was declared and and Nicol 2004, p. 573). Also, out of from other environmental variability accompanied by the adoption of a concern that krill management was (Croxall and Nichol 2004, pp. 573–574). formal management plan (Crawford and being undertaken at a scale too large to prevent localized depletion of the krill Conclusion for South Georgia Island Cooper 2003, p. 420). In our analysis of resource if the fishery was concentrated Based on: (1) The small size of krill other factors, we determined that in small proportions of a particular fisheries in the region of South Georgia existing national regulatory mechanisms established area or sub-area, CCAMLR Island, and (2) the ongoing efforts under are adequate regarding the conservation adopted approaches to better manage CCAMLR to sustainably manage krill of macaroni penguins throughout all or the area encompassing the Antarctic species, efforts specifically designed to any portion of the species’ range. (For Peninsula, Scotia Sea, and South investigate and respond to the example in our discussion of Factor E, Georgia. phenomena described for the South we consider the adequacy of CCAMLR First, on the basis of the work of their Georgia Island region (e.g., the setting of in the conservation and management of scientific committee, the CCAMLR precautionary catch limits designed to krill fisheries.) Furthermore, there is no Commission in 2002 formally adopted limit local impacts and the development information available to suggest this smaller and more ecologically realistic and implementation of SSMUs), we find will change within the foreseeable management areas, referred to as Small- that competition with krill fisheries is future. Scale Management Units (SSMUs) to not a threat to the macaroni penguin at Factor E: Other Natural or Manmade manage krill fishing at scales most South Georgia Island. Furthermore, we Factors Affecting the Continued relevant to the natural environment— have no reason to believe that the krill Existence of the Species prey-predator interactions (Hewitt et al. fisheries will expand in this region in 2004, p. 84). This includes three SSMUs the foreseeable future or that the current Competition With Commercial Krill established in the South Georgia region. management and regulatory Fisheries At the same time, CCAMLR adopted mechanisms will be weakened or Another possible factor affecting krill precautionary catch limits, well below become less effective in the foreseeable abundance is commercial krill fisheries. the catch limits identified in global future. Krill fisheries have operated in the scale analyses, to limit harvest in the region of South Georgia Island since the fisheries areas while specific protocols Conclusion for the Remainder of the early 1980s and are managed by for dividing harvest among the SSMUs Macaroni Penguin’s Range CCAMLR (Reid and Croxall 2001, p. are being developed (Hewitt et al. 2004, Given the ongoing efforts within 383). Harvesting occurs in the winter p. 84). CCAMLR to improve management around South Georgia Island and moves The process of establishing science- procedures for the krill fishery in long- south as the ice retreats in spring and based approaches by which to allocate established fisheries areas and sub-areas summer. Krill fisheries have harvested harvest to the SSMUs was agreed by the in the Southern Ocean (Croxall and only a fraction of the approved CCAMLR commission and is well Nicol 2004, pp. 570–574), including: (1) CCAMLR catch limits since 1993 underway. Allocation options have been Efforts already completed to provide (Croxall and Nichol 2004, p. 574). In developed (Hewitt et al. 2004, pp. 81– better management of overall harvest

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limits and the adoption of precautionary species can withstand the potential Macaroni Penguin Finding Throughout catch limits for smaller management impacts from oil spills. Also, given the Its Range areas, and (2) the substantial progress remoteness of South Georgia Island, its We identified a number of stressors to being made in bringing krill harvest relatively high population numbers, and this species: (1) Reduced prey (krill) management down to the scale of the measures in place to control cruise availability due to (a) competition with SSMUs, we find that regulatory vessel activities in the region, we Antarctic fur seals, (b) changes in the mechanisms for the management of krill believe the population on South Georgia marine environment, or (c) competition fisheries are adequate. We have no Island can withstand the potential with commercial krill fisheries; and (2) reason to believe that the current impacts from oil spills. Furthermore, we oil spills. To determine whether these regulatory mechanisms will be have no reason to believe that the stressors individually or collectively weakened or become less effective in frequency or severity of oil spills in any rise to a ‘‘threat’’ level such that the the future. As discussed above, macaroni penguin is in danger of management efforts even improved over portion of the species’ range will extinction throughout its range, or likely the last several years. Therefore, we find increase in the future or that to become so within the foreseeable that competition with krill fisheries is containment capabilities will be future, we first considered whether the not a threat to the macaroni penguin in weakened. Therefore, we conclude that stressors to the species were causing a any other portion of its range now or in oil pollution from oil spills is not a long-term, population-scale decline in the foreseeable future. threat to the species in any portion of its range now or in the foreseeable penguin numbers, or were likely to do Oil Spills future. so in the future. The possibility of oil pollution is As discussed above, the overall cited in reviews of the conservation Foreseeable Future macaroni penguin population is estimated at 9 million pairs (BirdLife status of macaroni penguins (BirdLife In considering the foreseeable future International 2007, p. 3; Ellis et al. 1998, International 2007, p. 2; Ellis et al. 2007, as it relates to the status of the macaroni p. 61). At Marion Island, oil spills have p. 5; Ellis et al. 1998, p. 60) and is likely penguin, we considered the stressors had severe effects on penguins at to be greater due to likely landing beaches, but a new Prince acting on the macaroni penguin. We underestimates at South Georgia Island. Edward Islands Management Plan, considered the historical data to identify Although penguin numbers appear to prepared by the Republic of South any relevant existing trends that might have declined by about 32 percent in Africa, now requires that utmost care be allow for reliable prediction of the the Prince Edward Islands since the late taken to avoid fuel spills during future (in the form of extrapolating the 1970s, this area represents only 3.4 transfers at the islands (Crawford and trends). We also considered whether we percent of the overall current macaroni Cooper 2003, p. 418). could reliably predict any future events penguin population. In other parts of Oil and chemical spills can have (not yet acting on the species and the species’ range, trends are increasing, direct effects on the macaroni penguin therefore not yet manifested in a trend) stable, or unknown due to poor or scant in New Zealand waters, and based on that might affect the status of the data. Based on the best available data, previous incidents around New species. we conclude that the population is Zealand, we consider this a stressor to stable overall. In other words, the With respect to the macaroni penguin, this species. For example, in March combined effects of reduced prey the available data do not support a 2000, the fishing Vessel Seafresh 1 sank availability, competition with Antarctic in Hanson Bay on the east coast of conclusion that there is a current overall fur seals, changes in the marine Chatham Island and released 66 tons (60 trend in population numbers, and the environment, competition with tonnes (t)) of diesel fuel. Rapid overall population numbers are high. As commercial krill fisheries, and the containment of the oil at this very discussed above in the five-factor impacts from oil spills at the current remote location prevented any wildlife analysis, we were also unable to identify levels are not causing a long-term casualties (New Zealand Wildlife Health any significant trends with respect to decline in the macaroni penguin Center 2007, p. 2). The same source the stressors we identified. There is no population. Because there appears to be reports that in 1998 the fishing vessel evidence that any of the stressors are no ongoing long-term decline, the Don Wong 529 ran aground at Breaksea growing in magnitude. Thus, the species is neither endangered nor Islets, off Stewart Island, outside the foreseeable future includes threatened due to factors causing range of the erect-crested penguin. consideration of the ongoing effects of ongoing population declines, and the Approximately 331 tons (300 t) of current stressors at comparable levels. overall population of 9 million pairs or marine diesel was spilled along with There remains the question of more appears robust. smaller amounts of lubricating and We also considered whether any of whether we can reliably predict future waste oils. With favorable weather the stressors began recently enough that events (as opposed to ongoing trends) conditions and establishment of triage their effects are not yet manifested in a that will likely cause the species to response, no wildlife casualties of the long-term decline, but are likely to have pollution event were discovered (Taylor become endangered. As we discuss in that effect in the future. There is little 2000, p. 94). We are not aware of reports the finding below, we can reliably data on macaroni penguin prey of other oil spill incidents within the predict that periodic declines in prey availability prior to the last 3 decades, range of the macaroni penguin. availability and oil spills will continue and even less information on causes of We recognize that an oil spill near a to cause local declines in macaroni prey decline. In any case, the periodic breeding colony could have local effects penguin colonies, but we have no declines in prey availability over the on macaroni penguin colonies. reason to believe they will have last 30 years have had sufficient time to However, on the basis of the species’ population-level impacts. Thus, the be reflected in population trends, and widespread distribution around the foreseeable future includes there appears to be no overall trend, remote islands of the South Atlantic and consideration of the effects of such regardless of localized changes in southern Indian Oceans and its robust crashes on the viability of the macaroni abundance. In addition, no oil spill population numbers, we believe the penguin. events have occurred recently enough

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that the population effects would not groups. Among these groups, we have percent of the estimated numbers in the yet be observed. Therefore, the macaroni identified two possible segments to Indian Ocean. This does not provide a penguin is not threatened or endangered evaluate for DPS status: (1) The Prince significant contribution globally to the due to threats that began recently Edward Islands, administered by South abundance of the taxon. The Prince enough that their effects are not yet Africa, and (2) South Georgia Island, Edward Islands are the westernmost of manifested in a long-term decline. administered by the United Kingdom. one of four island groups that lie just Next, we considered whether any of For both of these areas, there may be north of the Antarctic Convergence the stressors were likely to increase differences in conservation status from Zone and comprise the Indian Ocean within the foreseeable future, such that other areas of the range of the macaroni breeding habitat of the macaroni the species is likely to become an penguin. Based on the data available, penguin. The Prince Edward Islands endangered species in the foreseeable these are the only two areas where and the Crozet Islands sit 641 mi (1,066 future. As discussed above, we decreases in penguin numbers within km) apart in similar ecological settings, concluded that none of the stressors colonies have been documented. rising at about 46° S at the western and were likely to increase significantly. Throughout the remainder of the eastern ends, respectively, of the Having determined that a current or macaroni penguin’s range, population shallow Crozet Plateau. Both islands are future declining trend does not justify trends are for the most part unknown adjacent to both the shallow waters of listing the macaroni penguin, we next but in limited cases reported as stable or the plateau and the deeper water areas considered whether the species met the increasing (see Population discussion). to the south of this region. Even though definition of an endangered species or Discreteness Analysis it is the westernmost breeding location threatened species on account of its in the Indian Ocean, loss of the Prince present or likely future absolute A discussion of discreteness can be Edward Islands colonies would not numbers. The total population of found above in the southern rockhopper create a significant gap in the range of approximately 9 million pairs or more penguin Discreteness Analysis section. the taxon. The Indian Ocean colonies appears robust. It is not so low that, Prince Edward Islands: Considering are already very isolated (1,581 mi despite our conclusion that there is no the question of discreteness, this island (2,545 km)) from the closest colonies to ongoing decline, the species is at such group is unique in the range of the the west in the South Atlantic Ocean at risk from stochastic events that it is macaroni penguin in being administered Bouvet Island. The distance between currently in danger of extinction. by the Republic of South Africa. Bouvet Island and the Prince Edward Finally, we considered whether, even Numbers are reported to have declined Islands is 1,581 mi (2,545 km) and the if the size of the current population by approximately 18 percent at Marion distance between Bouvet Island and makes the species viable, it is likely to Island between 1983–84 and 2002–03 Crozet Island is 2,135 mi (3,426 km). become endangered in the foreseeable and 47 percent at nearby Prince Edward Loss of the Prince Edward Island future because stochastic events might Island in the same period for an overall population would increase the distance reduce its current numbers to the point 32-percent decline from about 451,000 between Indian Ocean breeding areas where its viability would be in question. to about 309,000 breeding pairs at the and Bouvet Island by only 25 percent, Because of the wide distribution of this Prince Edward Islands. Based on its or 554 mi (886 km). We do not have data species, combined with its high delimitation by international boundaries to evaluate whether interchange occurs population numbers (approximately 9 and its potentially different between these South Atlantic Ocean and million pairs), even if a stochastic event conservation status from other areas of Indian Ocean breeding colonies, so we were to occur within the foreseeable abundance of the macaroni penguin, we do not know if the 25-percent increase future, negatively affecting this species, conclude that this segment of the in the distance between these breeding the population would still be unlikely to population of the macaroni penguin areas is significant. We also have no be reduced to such a low level that it passes the discreteness conditions for evidence that the Prince Edward Island would then be in danger of extinction. determination of a DPS. populations differ markedly from others Despite local declines in numbers of South Georgia Island: At this island, in genetic characteristics. On the basis macaroni penguins in some colonies, which is administered by the United of this information, we conclude that the species has thus far maintained Kingdom, macaroni penguin numbers at the Prince Edward Island birds do not what appears to be high population study colonies are reported to have comprise a significant numerical levels, while being subject to most if not declined by 50 percent in the last two contribution to the overall population of all of the current stressors. The best decades of the 20th century. Based on macaroni penguins, they do not occupy available information suggests that the its delimitation by international an unusual or unique ecological setting overall macaroni penguin population is boundaries and its potentially different for the taxon, and their loss would not stable, despite localized changes in conservation status from other areas of result in a significant gap in the range population numbers. Therefore, we abundance of the macaroni penguin, we of the taxon. This population is not the conclude that the macaroni penguin is conclude that this segment of the only surviving natural occurrence of neither an endangered species nor likely population of the macaroni penguin this species, and it is not known to to become an endangered species in the passes the discreteness conditions for differ genetically from other populations foreseeable future throughout all of its determination of a DPS. of the species. On this basis, the Prince range. Significance Analysis Edward Islands populations of the Distinct Population Segment A discussion of significance can be macaroni penguin are not significant to A discussion of distinct population found above in the southern rockhopper the taxon as a whole and therefore do segments and the Service policy can be penguin Significance Analysis section. not constitute a DPS. found above in the Distinct Population Prince Edward Islands: The current South Georgia Island: The current Segment section of the southern abundance of about 309,000 breeding abundance of macaroni penguins at rockhopper penguin finding. pairs of macaroni penguins at the Prince South Georgia Island represents 28 Macaroni penguins are widely Edwards Islands represents 3 percent of percent of the global estimated dispersed throughout the sub-Antarctic the overall estimated population of population and is the largest known in colonies located on isolated island macaroni penguins worldwide and 6 concentration of breeding colonies of

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this species. For the South Atlantic whether the reported declines have 3, 55), yielding a range of 2.7–8.1 region, the South Georgia Island continued over the last decade. million pairs. Based on the poor quality population segment represents the core In our five-factor analysis for the of this population information, we of a range that includes areas of macaroni penguin, we found that at cannot reliably establish an overall abundance at the tip of South America South Georgia Island, reduced krill trend in the South Georgia Island DPS and scattered small colonies in the availability has been identified as a of the macaroni penguin. Therefore, islands at the tip of the Antarctic stressor associated with local declines of there is no reliable data that lead us to Peninsula. We conclude that loss of the up to 50 percent at small study colonies believe that the combined effects of colonies at South Georgia Island would over the last 2 decades of the 20th reduced prey availability, competition create a significant gap in the range of century. In our assessment of this with Antarctic fur seals, changes in the the taxon and remove macaroni stressor, we were unable to reliably marine environment, competition with penguins from the unique ecological identify the source of reduced krill commercial krill fisheries, and the setting of South Georgia Island, which availability to macaroni penguins in the impacts from oil spills at the current lies at the downstream end of the flow South Georgia Island DPS. We do not levels are causing a long-term decline in of nutrients and krill carried by the ACC have sufficient information as to the the South Georgia Island DPS of the from the vicinity of the Western continued abundance of krill macaroni penguin population. Because Antarctic Peninsula. Therefore, we populations reaching the waters of we cannot establish an ongoing long- conclude that the South Georgia Island South Georgia Island, nor predictive term decline, this DPS is neither population of the macaroni penguin is capability related to the future endangered nor threatened due to significant to the taxon as a whole and abundance of krill and other prey of the factors causing ongoing population qualifies as a distinct population South Georgia DPS, to conclude that declines, and the overall population segment. prey shortages will lead to future estimate of 2.7 million pairs appears declines. Under CCAMLR, measures are robust. South Georgia Island DPS Finding being taken to monitor krill abundance We also considered whether any of We identified a number of stressors to and manage krill fisheries, which are the stressors acting on colonies within the South Georgia Island DPS of the small in scale, at ecosystem scales the South Georgia DPS of the macaroni macaroni penguin: (1) Reduced prey relevant to safeguarding prey for penguin began recently enough that (krill) availability due to (a) competition predator species at South Georgia, their effects are not yet manifested in a with Antarctic fur seals, (b) changes in including the macaroni penguin. At the long-term decline, but are likely to have the marine environment, or (c) same time, studies have shown that that effect in the future. There is little competition with commercial krill macaroni penguins at South Georgia data on macaroni penguin prey fisheries; and (2) oil spills. To determine Island have some ability to compensate availability in the South Georgia region whether these stressors individually or for declines in krill by switching to prior to the last 3 decades, and even less alternative prey. This may provide a information on causes of prey decline. collectively rise to a ‘‘threat’’ level such means to mitigate, at least to some In any case, the periodic declines in that the macaroni penguin is in danger degree, against reproductive failure in prey availability over the last 30 years of extinction in the South Georgia Island times of reduced krill abundance. have had sufficient time to be reflected DPS, or likely to become so within the With respect to other factors, we are in population trends, and there is no foreseeable future, we first considered not aware of any overutilization for reliable evidence of an overall whether the stressors were causing a commercial, recreational, scientific, or population trend for the DPS, regardless long-term, population-scale decline in educational purposes that is a threat to of localized changes in abundance. In the DPS, or were likely to do so within the South Georgia DPS, and, based on addition, no oil spill events have the foreseeable future. review of the best available scientific occurred recently enough that the The macaroni penguin DPS at South and commercial information, we find population effects would not yet be Georgia Island is estimated to include that neither disease nor predation is a observed. Therefore, the macaroni 2.5–2.7 million breeding pairs; however, threat to the DPS. We find that penguin is not threatened or endangered as previously discussed (see Population regulatory mechanisms are adequate at in the South Georgia Island DPS due to discussion) the current estimate is likely South Georgia Island now or in the threats that began recently enough that to be an underestimate as it is based on foreseeable future. With respect to other their effects are not yet manifested in a extrapolations of counts in smaller areas natural or manmade factors, we find long-term decline. to predict numbers in larger areas—an that oil spills are not a threat to the DPS Next, we considered whether any of estimation technique of questionable now or in the foreseeable future. the stressors were likely to increase use in this species. Although study In evaluating the impact of these within the foreseeable future, such that colonies within the South Georgia factors, we have also considered the size the species is likely to become an Island DPS have decreased steeply in and trends of the South Georgia DPS of endangered species in the foreseeable numbers (by 50 percent) over the period macaroni penguin. Recognizing the future. As discussed above, we from 1980–2000, we do not know the highlighted uncertainties about the concluded that within the South status of the remainder of the colonies overall population estimates for the Georgia Island DPS, none of the throughout the DPS, and therefore, do South Georgia and the likelihood that stressors were likely to increase not know the overall population trend these figures are likely to be significantly. for the South Georgia Island DPS. In a underestimates, the best available Having determined that a current or similar situation at the Prince Edward information provided by the United future declining trend does not justify Islands, the use of figures from censuses Kingdom government indicates that listing the South Georgia Island DPS of of small study colonies would have led there are estimated to be 2.7 million the macaroni penguin, we next to a 100-percent overestimate of pairs (DEFRA 2007, p. 2). The previous considered whether the species met the declines (i.e., an inferred 50-percent estimate from 1980 has a large margin definition of an endangered species or decline, would actually be a 25-percent of error, which limits its use in threatened species on account of its decline) (Crawford et al. 2003, p. 485). establishing trends—5.4 million pairs present or likely future absolute We also do not have information on ± 25 to 50 percent, (Woehler 1993, pp. numbers. The total macaroni penguin

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population in the South Georgia Island SPR Analysis Within the South Georgia and commercial information, we find DPS is estimated at 2.7 million pairs, Island DPS that listing the macaroni penguin as and appears robust. It is not so low that, In an effort to determine whether this threatened or endangered under the Act despite our conclusion that there is no species is endangered or threatened in in all or any significant portion of its ongoing decline, the population is at a significant portion of the range of the range or in the South Georgia DPS is not warranted. such risk from stochastic events that it South Georgia Island DPS of the is currently in danger of extinction. macaroni penguin, we first considered Emperor Penguin Finally, we considered whether, even whether there was any portion of this Background if the size of the current population range where stressors were makes the species viable, it is likely to geographically concentrated in some Biology become endangered in the foreseeable way. However, since we only have trend The emperor penguin (Aptenodytes future because stochastic events might information on a limited number of forsteri) is the largest living species of reduce its current numbers to the point colonies with respect to both stressors penguin. It is congeneric with the king where its viability would be in question. and population trends, we could not penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), but Because of the large number of determine whether stressors were acting is double the size of this next largest dispersed breeding areas (17 main differently in one portion of the range penguin species at 3–4 ft (1–1.3 m) in breeding aggregations) throughout the versus another. Therefore, we were not height and 44–90 lb (20–41 kg) in South Georgia DPS, the large number of able to identify any portions of the range weight (Shirihai 2002, pp. 57, 59). individual colonies within these larger within the South Georgia Island DPS Emperor penguins generally feed over areas, and finally, because of the large that warrant further consideration. continental shelf and continental overall population size within the South margins of Antarctica, except for a wide- SPR Analysis Within the Remainder of Georgia DPS, we believe that even if a ranging and relatively undocumented the Macaroni Penguin’s Range stochastic event were to occur within juvenile life stage. In winter, they breed the foreseeable future, the population In an effort to determine whether this in colonies distributed widely along the would still be unlikely to be reduced to species is endangered or threatened in sea ice fringing the coast of Antarctica. such a low level that it would then be a significant portion of the remainder of In summer, during the molting period in danger of extinction. the species’ range (i.e., anywhere within when they must stay ashore, they Despite local declines in numbers of the species’ range except the South depend on areas of stable pack ice or macaroni penguins in some colonies Georgia DPS), we first considered nearshore, land-fast ice (Kooyman 2002, within the South Georgia DPS, the whether there was any portion of this pp. 485–495; Kooyman et al. 2000, p. population has thus far maintained range where the species may be either 269). what appears to be high population endangered or threatened with levels, while being subject to most if not extinction. Declines have been reported Life History all of the current stressors, and there is in the Prince Edward Islands. There was The life history of emperor penguins no reliable information that shows an a decline from 451,000 pairs in 1983–84 is unique among birds, with breeding overall declining population trend of to 356,000 pairs in 2002–03, but given and incubation taking place in the the South Georgia DPS. Therefore, we the magnitude of the population Antarctic winter. Kooyman (2002, pp. conclude that the South Georgia DPS of numbers, this 18 percent decline over 485–495) summarizes this life history. the macaroni penguin is neither an the 8-year time period is not considered Breeding birds arrive in the colonies in endangered species nor likely to become to be a significant change in the April. After a period of courtship, egg- an endangered species in the foreseeable population (Crawford et al. 2003, p. laying takes place in mid-May. Male future. 485). In the three subsequent breeding emperor penguins incubate the eggs through the Antarctic winter until mid- Significant Portion of the Range years (2003–06) small fluctuations July to early August. The females depart Analysis between 350,000 and 300,000 pairs were observed (Crawford 2007, p. 9). In our the colony soon after egg-laying and Having determined that the macaroni analysis, we found that the total decline forage at sea for 2 months. When the penguin is not now in danger of has been approximately 32 percent females return, the males break their extinction or likely to become so in the since 1979. In our analysis of the five extensive winter fast. This fast of 110– foreseeable future throughout all of its factors for the macaroni penguin we 115 days has been documented to last range or in the South Georgia DPS as a identified no unique stressor affecting from before courtship, through consequence of the stressors evaluated the Prince Edward Islands populations. incubation, and past the hatching of the under the five factors in the Act, we also On the basis of its large population size chick (Kirkwood and Robertson 1997, p. considered whether there were any and limited declines (relative to overall 156). However, unlike previous natural significant portions of its range, both population numbers) observed over a history descriptions of emperor within the South Georgia DPS, and period of 30 years, we conclude that penguins, late fall transects have within the remainder of the species’ there is not substantial information that suggested that at some of the largest range where the species is in danger of the Prince Edward Islands portion of the colonies in the northern Ross Sea, extinction or likely to become so in the range may currently be in danger of where open water is closely accessible foreseeable future. See our analysis for extinction or likely to become in danger in late fall, males and females may feed southern rockhopper penguin for how of extinction in the foreseeable future. after courtship and immediately before we make this determination. Therefore this portion of the range does egg-laying, thus shortening the fast and The macaroni penguin is widely not pass the test of endangerment for the energetic stress of incubation for distributed throughout the Southern consideration as an SPR. males (Van Dan and Kooyman 2004, p. Ocean. In our five-factor analysis, we 317). After the single egg hatches, the did not identify any factor that was Final Determination for the Macaroni female emperor penguin returns. At that found to be a threat to the species Penguin point, the males and females begin to throughout its range or throughout the On the basis of analysis of the five share the feeding of the chick, coming South Georgia DPS. factors and the best available scientific and going on foraging trips away from

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the colony throughout the late winter (1993, pp. 5–10) documented 42 the most important physical and spring. These foraging trips last reported colonies around the continent, characteristics of colony locations and from 3 weeks to as little as 3 days, which included seven colonies how they influence colony size. For six getting progressively shorter as the discovered between 1979 and 1990 western Ross Sea colonies, Kooyman spring advances (Kooyman 2002, pp. (Woehler 1993, p. 5). Colonies along (1993, pp. 143–148) identified stable 485–495; Kooyman et al. 1996, p. 397). Marie Byrd Land east of the Ross Sea are land-fast ice, nearby open water, access The adults leave the colonies from mid- few or undocumented, with only one to fresh snow (for drinking water and December to mid-January on pre-molt confirmed, recently discovered breeding thermal protection), and shelter from foraging trips, which may take them up colony at Siple Island (Lea and Soper the wind as physical characteristics. At to 186 mi (300 km) north of the 2005, pp. 59–60) and one outlying small Beaufort Island, Cape Crozier, and continent and up to 745 mi (1,200 km) colony at the Dion Islands at the Franklin Island, limited land-fast ice from the colony. By late January to early western base of the Antarctic Peninsula areas seem to dictate colony size (179, February they arrive in areas where they (Woehler 1993, p. 9; Ainley et al. 2005, 477, and 4,989 fledgling chicks, can find stable land-fast ice or pack ice p. 177). At least three new locations respectively) because the birds were to allow them to stay ashore for the 1- have been discovered since 1990 (each unable to move away from snow and ice month molt (Kooyman et al. 2004, pp. with over 2,000 breeding pairs) and one that had been contaminated by guano 281–290; Wienecke et al. 2004, pp. 83– other colony was confirmed (Woehler over the course of the breeding season, 91). Following the molt, they embark on and Croxall 1997, p. 44; Coria and and they had limited options to shelter post-molt foraging trips, which bring Montalti 2000, pp. 119–120; Lea and from winds. At Coulman Island and breeding birds back to the colony in Soper 2005, pp. 59–60; Melick and Cape Washington, the largest known April. Bremmers 1995, p. 426; Todd et al. emperor penguin colonies (22,137 and The dispersal patterns of emperor 2004, pp. 193–194). 19,364 fledgling chicks, respectively), penguin chicks after fledging are poorly However, given the remote locations suitable land-fast ice areas were known. Once they leave the colonies of emperor penguin colonies and the unlimited with a good base of snow. they are seldom seen and do not return difficulties of accessing them, the Access to open water in the winter is again for several years. They return to number of colonies may vary from the another major characteristic. Known the colony when 4 years old and breed 45 reported. At the time of the 1990’s locations of emperor penguin colonies the following year (Shirihai 2002, p. 61). compilation of emperor penguin have been found to be associated with Kooyman et al. (1996, p. 397) followed numbers and colony locations cited known coastal polynyas-areas of winter the movements of five radio-tagged above, Woehler (1993, p. 5) stated that open water in East Antarctica (Massom juveniles at their departure from their many colonies had not been observed or et al. 1998, p. 420). colony at Cape Washington in the Ross counted for many years, with in some Localized changes in colony size and Sea. All traveled north beyond the Ross cases, the most recent data dating to the breeding success have been recorded at Sea to the Antarctic Convergence, the 1950s and 1960s. On the other hand, in specific colonies and attributed to local- boundary of the Southern Ocean, describing a new colony along the coast or regional-scale factors. Changes in the reaching 56.9° S latitude. While radio- of Wilkes Land near a research base that physical environment can have an signals were lost before the onset of had already been utilized for 35 years, impact on individual colonies, winter, Kooyman et al. (1996, p. 397) Melick and Bremmers (1995, p. 427) especially smaller ones, which show suggested that the birds may have cited a very strong likelihood that more higher year-to-year variation in live remained in the water north of the pack emperor penguin colonies were waiting chick counts than larger colonies ice until at least June. He noted that at to be discovered in this area and that (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, p. 4). this crucial period of their lives, such discoveries could significantly Feeding Areas juvenile emperor penguins may be raise the present estimates of emperor exposed to conditions similar to more penguin numbers. The primary foods of emperor northern penguin species, for example, penguins are krill (Euphausia superba), Breeding Areas commercial fishing in the Southern Antarctic silverfish (Pleurogramma Ocean. It is hypothesized that juveniles Emperor penguin breeding colonies antarcticum), and some types of ranging north from the Mawson Coast are variable in size. In 1993, Woehler lanternfish and squid (Kirkwood and may feed and compete with king (1993, pp. 2–9) provided size estimates Robertson 1997, p. 165; Kooyman 2002, penguins that are foraging south in the for 36 of the 42 colonies. Adding the 3 p. 491). The proportion of each of these fall and winter from their Indian Ocean newly discovered colonies cited above, in the diet is variable according to breeding colonies. colony size for 39 colonies ranged from colony location and season, with fish under 100 breeding pairs to 22,354 comprising 20 to 90 percent, krill 0.5 to Distribution breeding pairs (with 2 colonies above 68 percent, and squid 3 to 65 percent by Emperor penguins breed on land-fast 20,000 breeding pairs, 6 colonies weight in the diet (Kooyman 2002, pp. ice in colonies distributed around the between 10,000 and 20,000 pairs, 21 488, 491). perimeter of the Antarctic continent colonies between 1,000 and 10,000 During their winter feeding trips, from the western Weddell Sea to the pairs, and 10 colonies below 1,000 female emperor penguins travel over ice southwestern base of the Antarctic pairs). The largest colonies at Cape to reach areas of open water or Peninsula (Kooyman 2002, p. 490; Lea Washington and Coulman Island had polynyas, which are generally accessible and Soper 2005, p. 60; Woehler 1993, 19,364 and 22,137 downy chicks (and from emperor penguin colonies pp. 5–10;). For example, in the Ross Sea, accordingly the same number of (Massom et al. 1998, p. 420). Penguins six colonies are spaced 31–62 mi (50– breeding pairs), respectively, in 1990 from the Auster and Taylor colonies on 100 km) apart along the Victoria Land (Kooyman 1993, p. 145), and 23,021 and the Mawson coast of Antarctica, coast (Kooyman 1993, p. 143). 24,207 chicks, respectively, in 2005 carrying time-depth recorders, took Looking at the reported data, we (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, p. 7). about 8 days to reach the ice edge and conclude that the total number of Emperor penguin breeding colonies spent 50–60 days at sea foraging. They historically or presently recorded are also variable in physical location. foraged about 62 mi (100 km) northeast colonies is approximately 45. Woehler Scientists have attempted to describe of the colony in water over the outer

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continental shelf and shelf slope. As number of colonies (Kato et al. 2004, p. For example, the calving in 2000 and penguins are visual foragers, foraging 120; Kooyman et al. 2007, p. 37; Barber- subsequent grounding of two giant was limited to daylight, with penguins Meyer et al. 2007b, p. 7; Barbraud and icebergs in the Ross Sea severely entering the water just after dawn and Weimerskirch 2001, pp. 183–186) and affected the Cape Crozier and Beaufort emerging at dusk after spending on seem to reflect the impacts of local and Island emperor penguin colonies. In average 4.71 hours in the water regional physical and climatic variation 2001, nesting habitat was destroyed at (Kirkwood and Robertson 1997, pp. 155, in the harsh Antarctic environment, as Cape Crozier by the collision of iceberg 168). Both on the journey north and well as the resilience of this species in B15A with the northwest tongue of the between foraging days at sea, females responding to this variation. Ross Ice Shelf, dislodging the ice shelf occasionally huddled together in groups and creating a huge collection of iceberg Other Status Classifications on the ice to minimize heat loss rubble. Adult mortality was high, either (Kirkwood and Robertson 1997, p. 161). The emperor penguin is listed in the due to trauma from shifting and heaving As mentioned above, juvenile category of ‘Least Concern’ on the 2007 sea ice or subsequent starvation of penguins leaving their natal colonies IUCN Red List on the basis of its large penguins trapped in ravines. The colony upon fledging have been radio-tracked produced no chicks in 2001. The high ° range and stable global population to 56.9 S latitude, the area of the (BirdLife International 2007, p. 1). A mortality of adults (Kooyman et al. Antarctic Convergence where they species is considered of least concern 2007, p. 37) and continued instability presumably feed (Kooyman et al. 1996, when it has been evaluated against the and unsuitability of the area of this p. 397). IUCN criteria and does not qualify for traditional colony contributed to a Molting Areas ‘Critically Endangered,’ ‘Endangered,’ reduction in chick production that ‘Vulnerable,’ or ‘Near Threatened.’ ranged from 0 to 40 percent of the high The summer molt is a critical stage in count of 1,201 chicks produced in 2000 the life history of the emperor penguin. Widespread and abundant species are (Kooyman et al. 2007, pp. 31, 34–35). The birds must find stable land-fast ice included in this category (BirdLife Chick counts fluctuated from 0 in the or pack ice to allow them to stay ashore International 2007, p. 1). iceberg year of 2001, to 247 in 2002, to for the 1-month molt (Kooyman et al. Summary of Factors Affecting the 333 in 2003, to 475 in 2004, to 0 in 2004, pp. 281–290; Wienecke et al. Species 2005, to 340 chicks in 2006. The 2004, pp. 83–91). In the western Ross situation in 2005 was highly unusual Sea, penguins departing their breeding Factor A: The Present or Threatened because the 437 adults in the colony in grounds in December generally traveled Destruction, Modification, or mid-October showed no signs of an average straight-line distance of 745 Curtailment of Its Habitat or Range breeding (i.e., no eggs and no chicks). mi (1,200 km) from their colonies to The breeding range of the emperor The reason for breeding failure was not molt in the large consolidated pack-ice penguin consists of land-fast ice along area in the eastern Ross Sea (Kooyman apparent (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, pp. the continental margins of Antarctica. 7, 9). However, preliminary reports from et al. 2000, p. 272). In 1998, molting The emperor penguin is an ice- birds were sighted on the southern edge 2006 indicated that breeding success at dependent species. Therefore, emperor Cape Crozier was again improved with of the summer pack ice in the western penguins are vulnerable to changes in Weddell Sea (Kooyman et al. 2000, p. about 340 live chicks (Barber-Meyer et the winter land-fast ice and polynya al. 2007b, p. 9). Recovery may have 275), and birds sighted were assumed to system (Ainley 2005, p. 178; Croxall be from colonies in the eastern Weddell been slowed as a consequence of the 2004, p. 90), which comprises their high adult mortality in 2001. While Sea up to 869 mi (1,400 km) to the east, breeding habitat, and to changes in the although some may have come from the breeding birds have persistently pack ice or residual land-fast ice, which returned to the colony after the iceberg Snow Hill Colony recently discovered to they use for summer molt haul-out areas the north of this area (Kooyman et al. departed in 2003, they may be waiting (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, p. 11; for conditions at the colony to improve 2000, pp. 275–276). Along the Mawson Kooyman et al. 2004, p. 289). Coast, penguins departing colonies prior before breeding there again (Kooyman et to molt traveled for 22–38 days and Studies reviewed below indicate that al. 2007, p. 37). reached molting locations up to 384 mi the emperor penguin lives in a harsh At the Beaufort Island colony, the (618 km) from the colony. Unlike Ross and highly changeable environment. arrival of iceberg B15A, along with Sea penguins, they did not travel Changes and perturbations that affect iceberg C16 in 2001, did not physically directly to consolidated pack-ice emperor penguins occur on daily, affect the colony substrate itself, but locations, but first moved north, seasonal, annual, decadal, and historical separated the breeding birds in the apparently to feed, and then returned to timeframes. Localized changes in colony colony from their feeding area in the molt in nearshore areas where land-fast size and breeding success have been Ross Sea polynya with a 93-mi (150-km) ice persisted throughout the summer recorded at specific colonies and long barrier. In the 2001–2004 breeding (Wienecke et al. 2004, p. 90). attributed to local- or regional-scale seasons, adult birds were forced to walk factors. up to 56 mi (90 km) before being able Abundance and Trends Changes in the physical environment to enter the water. Chick counts in 2004, There are estimated to be 195,000 can have an impact on individual the worst year of this period, dropped emperor penguin pairs breeding in colonies, especially smaller marginal to 131 (6 percent of the high count of approximately 45 colonies around the ones that show higher year-to-year 2,038 in 2000). Unlike at Cape Crozier, perimeter of the Antarctic continent. variation in live chick counts than larger once the icebergs finally left the area by The population is believed to be stable colonies (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, pp. 2005, the surface conditions of the rangewide (Woehler 1993, pp. 2–7; Ellis 7, 10). A dramatic example of physical colony were restored to pre-iceberg et al. 2007, p. 5) and in the Ross Sea changes to the breeding and foraging condition and, with accessibility to the (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, p. 3). As environment comes from the periodic Ross Sea polynya restored, the first post- cited above, even as overall numbers calving of giant icebergs from the Ross iceberg breeding season saw recovery in remain stable, fluctuations in individual Ice Shelf, expected every 3–4 decades chick production to 446 chicks colony size have been reported for a on average (Arrigo et al. 2002, p. 4). (Kooyman et al. 2007, p. 36) to 628

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chicks (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, p. 7), largest and smallest and most southerly during the 17 years of population a little under one-third of 2000 levels. of all penguin colonies, Barber-Meyer et stability after this period to a Changes in the physical environment al. (2007b, pp. 3–11) examined large- combination of local- and annual-scale have also been shown to affect the food scale and local-scale climatic factors physical factors, such as blizzards and sources of emperor penguins in the Ross against trends in chick abundance in six early break out of the ice supporting the Sea (Arrigo et al. 2002, pp. 1–4). The colonies in the western Ross Sea from colony (Barbraud and Weimerskirch presence of the B15A iceberg in the Ross 1979–2005. They found that overall 2001, pp. 183–186). This increased Sea blocked the normal drift of pack ice emperor penguin numbers in the Ross variability over the last 17 years is and resulted in heavier spring and Sea were stable during this period. They consistent with the observations for the summer pack ice in the region in 2000– were unable to find any consistent Ross Sea (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, p. 01. This resulted in a delay in the correlation between trends in chick 7), where annual variability in breeding initiation of the annual phytoplankton abundance and any of the climate success is larger for smaller colonies. bloom in some areas and failure to variables of sea-ice extent—sea surface The conclusions of the Barbraud and bloom in others, with a reduction in temperature, annual Southern Weimerskirch study and the ability to primary productivity in the Ross Sea Oscillation Index, and Southern generalize based on its results have been region by 40 percent. While emperor Hemisphere Annular Mode. They questioned by several authors. As noted penguin diets were not reported, Adelie determined that chick abundance in above, the results and conclusions are penguin diets shifted to a krill species smaller colonies was more highly not supported by a larger-scale study of normally associated with extensive sea- variable than in large colonies, six large and small penguin colonies in ice cover during the first year of this suggesting that small colonies occupy the Ross Sea, which represent 25 grounding event (Arrigo et al. 2002, p. marginal habitat and are more percent of the world’s population 3). The very large emperor penguin susceptible to environmental change. (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, pp. 10–11). colony at Cape Washington, about 124 While they concede that significant In discussing this study, Ainley et al. mi (200 km) away, experienced reduced local events such as the grounding of (2005, pp. 177–180) concluded that the chick abundance in the period when iceberg B15A may have masked subtle confounding factors of severe blizzards B15A was in the area; the iceberg’s relationships with local sea-ice extent and increases in early departure of the presence may have modified breeding and large-scale climate variable, their land-fast ice nesting substrate suggest behavior and chick nurturing in some analysis indicated that the that the continued low population way. Chick numbers rebounded in 2004 environmental change most affecting numbers at Point Geologie have not and 2005 (Barber-Meyer et al. 2007b, p. chick abundance is fine-scale sea-ice been fully explained, and they 10). extent and local weather events (Barber- questioned the conclusion that higher Future iceberg calving events are Meyer et al. 2007b, pp. 3–11). mortality of adult emperor penguins likely to affect emperor penguin during 1976–1980 was caused by colonies in the Ross Sea. Calving of the Similar analyses have been conducted increased sea surface temperatures. Ross Ice Shelf, which led to the for a single, small emperor penguin Croxall et al. (2002, p. 1,513) stated formation of icebergs B15A and C16, is colony located near the D’Urmont ‘‘that current data on environment-prey- described as a cyclical phenomenon D’Urville Station in the Point Geologie population interactions are insufficient expected every 3–4 decades on average archipelago in Adelie Land in a study for deriving a single coherent model that from the northeast corner of the ice that has been widely cited as explains these observations.’’ shelf. While the Ross Ice Shelf front has demonstrating the impacts of climate Further work at this same Antarctic been relatively stable over the last change on this species (Barbraud and location, building from local century, such events are a consequence Weimerskirch 2001, pp. 183–186). In observations of seabird dynamics and of the longer-term behavior of the West the late 1970s, a 50-percent decline in measurements of regional sea-ice extent Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross sector. the number of breeding pairs at this and the Southern Oscillation Index, led Current retreat of the Western Antarctic small colony (from 5,000–6,000 pairs to Jenouvrier et al. (2005, p. 894) to suggest Ice Shelf has been underway for the past 2,500–3,000 pairs) occurred at the time that in the late 1970s there may have 20,000 years since the last glacial of an extended period of warmed winter been a regime shift in cyclical Antarctic maximum, and retreat is expected to temperatures at the colony and reduced environmental factors such as sea-ice continue, with or without global climate sea-ice extent in the vicinity. After the extent and the Southern Oscillation warming or sea-level rise (Conway et al. period of decline, numbers stabilized at Index, which may have affected the 1999, pp. 280–283). Efforts are half the pre-1970 levels for the next 17 dynamics of the Southern Ocean. In underway to understand and predict the years. Meteorological data collected at another paper, Weimerskirch et al. overall behavior of the West Antarctic the station were used as a proxy for sea (2003, p. 254) suggested that the Ice Sheet (Bentley 1997, pp. 1,077– surface temperatures. The authors found decrease in sea-ice extent in the late 1,078; Bindschalder 1998, pp. 428–429; that overall breeding success was not 1970s in the Adelie Land area could be Bindschalder et al. 2003, pp. 1,087– related to sea surface temperatures or related to a regional increase in 1,989), but we are not aware of any sea-ice extent. Instead, the decrease was temperatures in the Indian Ocean current predictions of local-scale attributed to increased adult mortality. during that period. changes in calving rates in the Ross Sea Emperor penguin survival apparently In related work, Ainley et al. (2005, in the near future. was reduced when temperatures were pp. 171–182) further described decadal- A number of studies have attempted higher and penguins survived better scale changes in the western Pacific and to relate population changes at when sea-ice extent was greater. The Ross Sea sectors of the Southern Ocean individual emperor penguin colonies to authors hypothesized that with during the early to mid-1970s and again the effects of regional and global decreased sea-ice extent during the during 1988–1989. These large-scale oceanographic and climatic processes warmer period in the late 1970s, krill periods of warming and cooling and affecting sea surface temperatures and recruitment may have been reduced, corresponding changes in weather and sea-ice extent. In the Ross Sea, which making it more difficult for adults to sea-ice patterns were linked to decadal contains the highest densities of find food. The authors attributed an shifts in two atmospheric pressure- emperor penguins in Antarctica and the increased variability in breeding success related systems in the region. The first

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is the semi-annual oscillation (the understand long-term observed sea ice cover is projected to decrease strengthening and weakening of the conditions and to predict future more slowly than in the Arctic, circumpolar trough of low pressure that conditions either on the basis of the particularly in the vicinity of the Ross encircles Antarctica), and the second is demographic behavior of individual Sea where most models predict a the Antarctic oscillation (now referred penguin colonies or on the basis of minimum in surface warming. This is to as the Southern Annual Mode), the global-scale climate observations are commensurate with the region with the pressure gradient between mid latitudes difficult and incomplete. At a continent- greatest reduction in ocean heat loss, and high latitudes (Ainley et al. 2005, p. wide scale, observational studies show which results from reduced mixing of 172). The study showed that sea-ice cover decreased significantly in the ocean’’ (Meehl et al. 2007, p. 770). environmental changes in a number of the 1970s, but has increased overall Simulation models, comparing 1980– sea-ice variables during these cyclical since the late 1970s (Parkinson 2002, p. 2000 observed winter and summer mean periods, including polynya size, led to 439; Parkinson 2004, p. 387; Yuan and sea-ice concentrations around corresponding reductions and increases Martinson 2000, p. 1,712). More Antarctica with modeled 2080–2100 in a number of Adelie penguin colonies recently, the IPCC reported that sea-ice concentrations, predicted in the Ross Sea and changes in the Antarctic results show a small, positive declines in sea-ice concentrations in number of adults breeding and the trend in sea-ice extent that is not this timeframe (Bracegirdle et al. 2008, reproductive output at a number of statistically significant (Lemke 2007, p. p. 8; Meehl et al. 2007, p. 771). While individual Adelie penguin colonies in 351). these models showed extensive the Ross Sea. The authors attempted to With respect to regional trends along deviation around mean predictions, compare Ross Sea data for Adelie the continent, satellite observational they provided a general predictive penguins with the observations at studies have shown, for Southern Ocean picture of future Antarctic sea-ice Pointe Geologie for emperor penguins, regions adjoining the South Atlantic, conditions in the range of the emperor but data from the much more detailed South Indian, and southwest Pacific penguin. They showed winter sea-ice subsequent studies of Barber-Meyer et Oceans, increasing trends in sea-ice reductions by 2080–2100, with ice al. (2007b, pp. 3–11) leave the reader cover, particularly during non-winter concentrations remaining high around with only the general conclusion that months. Regions adjoining the southeast the bulk of the continent and highest in the two species respond differently to Pacific Ocean, however, have shown the Ross, Amundsen, and Weddell Seas, these cyclical environmental changes decreasing trends in sea-ice coverage, and around the Mawson Coast in the (Ainley et al. 2005, p. 171). particularly during the summer months Indian Ocean sector. Summer sea-ice The primary breeding and winter (Stammerjohn and Smith 1997, p. 617; concentrations also retreat, with sea ice foraging habitat of the emperor penguin Kwok and Comiso 2002, p. 501; Yuan persisting in the Ross and Weddell Seas is land-fast ice along the margins of the and Martinson 2000, p. 1,712). The and apparently greatly reduced or not Antarctic continent. While overall distribution of sea-ice-extent anomalies persisting in the Indian Ocean sector. populations are stable, local- or (areas of more- or less-than-average sea These large-scale model predictions regional-scale variations in physical, ice) observed around the continent is seem to indicate that emperor penguins, oceanographic, and climatological bimodal with increased ice cover in the especially in the Ross and Weddell processes, as described above, lead to Indian Ocean sector, a slight decrease Seas, are likely to continue to encounter year-to-year variations in chick between the eastern Indian Ocean and suitable sea-ice habitat for breeding in production or colony breeding success Western Pacific, large increases in the the winter and molting in the summer in colonies scattered widely along the western Pacific Ocean and Ross Sea in the 100-year timeframe. The IPCC is coast of Antarctica. Field observations sector, a large decrease in the very clear on the limitations of these show that emperor penguins respond to Bellinghausen and Amundsen Seas of models—the report contains a section such factors, when they occur, but given the eastern Pacific sector, and a large discussing the limitations and biases of the stability of penguin numbers around increase in the Weddell Sea (Curran et sea-ice models and finding that even in Antarctica, we have found no consistent al. 2003, p. 1,205; Yuan and Martinson the best cases, which involve Northern trends with respect to the destruction, 2000, p. 1,712). Attempts to link south Hemisphere winter sea-ice extent, ‘‘the modification, or curtailment of their polar sea-ice trends to climate outside range of simulated sea ice extent habitat or range. this polar region are extremely complex. exceeds 50% of the mean and ice With respect to larger-scale In statistical and observational studies thickness also varies considerably, observations of the climate of Antarctica of Antarctic sea-ice extent and its global suggesting that projected decreases in and the extent of the sea ice that makes variability, sea-ice anomalies in the sea ice remain rather uncertain’’ up the primary habitat of the emperor Amundsen Sea, Bellinghausen Sea, and (Randall et al. 2007, p. 616). It is penguin, the Working Group I report to Weddell Gyre, corresponding to the difficult and premature, given the large the Fourth Assessment Report of the Western Antarctic Peninsula region, geographic scale of these models, their Intergovernmental Panel on Climate showed the strongest links to extrapolar extensive deviations around mean Change (IPCC), which reviewed the climate (Yuan and Martinson 2000, p. predictions, and their 100-year observations on the physical science 1,697) and to variations in the Southern timeframe, to make specific predictions basis for climate change, found that Oscillation Index (Kwok and Comiso about the sea-ice conditions in any ‘‘Antarctica sea ice extent continues to 2000, p. 500); however, these factors did particular region of emperor penguin show interannual variability and not explain the trends of stable or habitat around Antarctica. This is localized changes, but no statistically increasing sea-ice extent for the majority particularly difficult when empirical significant overall trends, consistent of the continental coast of Antarctica, evidence to date suggests that such with lack of warming reflected in which encompasses the range of the continent-wide sea-ice declines have atmospheric temperatures averaged emperor penguin. not yet begun. across the region’’ (IPCC 2007, p. 9). With respect to atmospheric Observations of climate and ice Future Projections temperatures, increases in the Southern conditions are not uniform throughout With respect to the future of Annular Mode (SAM) index (a monthly Antarctica in any particular season or Antarctica, the IPCC reported, ‘‘in 20th measure of differences in sea-level year. Attempts to describe and and 21st century simulations, Antarctic atmospheric pressure between the mid

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latitudes and high latitudes of the the coming 100 years, which remain season when chicks are most Southern Hemisphere) (Trenberth et al. very general. We have paid particular vulnerable. 2007, p. 287) from the 1960s to the attention to sea ice because it is the Burger and Gochfeld (2007, pp. present are associated with a strong dominant habitat feature of the emperor 1,303–1,313) examined whether the warming over the Antarctic Peninsula penguin’s life cycle. To date, evidence presence of tourists had an impact on and, to a lesser extent, with cooling over does not support the conclusion that the movement of emperor penguins parts of continental Antarctica, the area directional changes in temperature or between the colony and the sea. They of the range of the emperor penguin sea-ice extent are already occurring in found that penguins noticing the (Trenberth et al. 2007, p. 339). There is the habitat of the emperor penguin. We presence of people paused more often continued debate as to whether these do not discount the strong likelihood and for longer in their movements than trends in the SAM are related to that predicted sea-ice changes will those passing at a greater distance. The stratospheric ozone depletion and to eventually reduce the habitat of emperor authors provided recommendations for greenhouse gas increases (Trenberth et penguins. However, on the basis of: (1) tourist behavior to mitigate the effects of al. 2007, p. 292) or to decadal variation Current observed conditions; (2) the tourist presence on traveling penguins. in teleconnections or large-scale stability of emperor penguin colonies For the remainder of continental patterns of pressure and circulation throughout their range; (3) the Antarctica tourists, visits and landings anomalies that span vast geographical likelihood in the 100-year timeframe are extremely limited. For example, in areas and ‘‘modulate the location and that emperor penguin habitat 2006–07, 263 people are recorded as strength of storm tracks and poleward requirements will continue to be met in landing from one ship, again the fluxes of heat, moisture and current core areas of their range; and (4) icebreaker Kapitan Khlebnikov, at Cape momentum’’ (Trenberth et al. 2007, pp. the uncertainty of current large-scale Washington in the Ross Sea, the site of 286–287). Reconstructions of century- predictive models and the absence of one of the largest emperor penguin scale records based on proxies of the fine-scale climate models predicting colonies. Only 13 sites off the Antarctic SAM found that the magnitude of the conditions for the range of the emperor Peninsula are recorded as receiving current trend may not be unprecedented penguin, we conclude that there is not tourists (IAATO 2007c, p. 1). even in the 20th century (Trenberth et sufficient evidence to find that climate- The Antarctic Treaty sets out al. 2007, pp. 292–293). The response of change effects to the habitat of the requirements for tourism operators and the SAM to the ozone hole in the late emperor penguin will threaten the tourists entering the Antarctic Treaty 20th century, which has also had a emperor penguin within the foreseeable region. Tourism operators are required warming affect on temperature, future. to operate under the Antarctic Treaty’s confounds simple extrapolation into the On the basis of this information, we Guidance for those Organising and future (Christensen et al. 2007, p. 907). conclude that the present or threatened At the regional scale, the IPCC destruction, modification, or Conducting Tourism and Non- reported that very little effort has been curtailment of the emperor penguin’s governmental Activities in the spent to model the future climate of habitat or range is not a threat to the Antarctic: Recommendation XVIII–1, Antarctica (Christenson 2007, p. 908). species in any portion of its range now adopted at the Antarctic Treaty Meeting, Annual warming over the Antarctic or in the foreseeable future. Kyoto, 1994. This detailed guidance sets continent is predicted to be ‘‘moderate out requirements for: (1) Advance Factor B: Overutilization for but significant’’ (2.5–9 °F (1.4–5 °C), planning and advanced notification, as Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or with a median of 4.7 °F (2.6 °C)) at the well as post-visit reporting of any Educational Purposes end of the 21st century (Christenson proposed activities in the region, (2) 2007, p. 908). Models tend to show that The ecotourism industry in Antarctica preparation and compliance with the current pattern, which involves has been growing, with an increase from contingency-response plans, including warming over the western Antarctic 6,750 tourists during the 1992–93 for waste management and marine Peninsula and little change over the rest summer season to a projected 35,000 pollution, and (3) awareness of and of the continent, is not projected to tourists in 2007–08 (Austen 2007, p. 1). proper permitting related to Specially continue through the 21st century A few emperor penguin colonies have Protected Areas, Sites of Special (Christenson 2007, p. 908). Ainley et al. become the focus of increased, but Scientific Interest, and Historic Sites (unpublished ms, n.d., pp. 1, 26–29), limited, tourism activities in Antarctica. and Monuments (International using a composite of selected climate In particular, the newly discovered Association of Antarctica Tour models for 2025–2070, projected that an Snow Hill colony near the Antarctic Operators (IAATO 2007a, p. 1). The increase in earth’s tropospheric Peninsula, which numbers about 4,000 Antarctic Treaty Guidance for Visitors temperature by 3.6 °F (2 °C) would pairs (Todd et al. 2004, pp. 193–194), is to the Antarctic: Recommendation result in a marked decline or accessible to ice-breaking vessels XVIII–1, adopted at the Antarctic Treaty disappearance of 50 percent of emperor coming to the Antarctic Peninsula from Meeting, Kyoto, 1994 is intended to colonies (40 percent of the population) the southern ports of South America. ensure that all visitors to the Antarctic at latitudes north of 70° S latitude The International Association of are aware of and comply with the treaty because of severe decreases in pack-ice Antarctica Tourism Operators (IAATO and its Protocol for Environmental coverage and ice thickness, especially in 2007b, p. 1) reported that 909 visitors Protection. This focuses in particular on the eastern Ross and Weddell Seas. landed to visit the Snow Hill Colony in the prohibition on taking or harmful Without further review and testing of the 2006–07 summer season. These interference with Antarctic wildlife, this model, it would be premature to use visitors all came off one vessel, the including care not to affect them in this model’s results to make specific icebreaker Kapitan Khlebnikov. In ways that cause them to alter their predictions about the sea-ice conditions November 2006, Burger and Gochfeld behavior, and on preventing the in the emperor penguin habitat around (2007, pp. 1,303–1,313) reported that introduction of nonnative plants or Antarctica. there was one visit in 2004, no tour animals into the Antarctic (Antarctic We have examined current conditions visits in 2005, and at least three visits Treaty Secretariat 2007, pp. 1–5). and predictions for changes in sea ice in 2006. These authors concluded it was Scientific research is also strictly and temperatures around Antarctica for unlikely tourists would visit early in the regulated under the Antarctic Treaty.

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On the basis that tourist activities and Penhale 1999, p. 8). Measures for population decrease below that which reach very few penguin colonies, the the Conservation of Antarctic Fauna and ensures stable recruitment of harvested number of tourists are limited, and their Flora arising out of language in Article species; (2) maintenance of the behavior is well regulated by the IX of the treaty concerning ecological relationships among Antarctic Treaty, we find that tourism is ‘‘preservation and conservation of living harvested, dependent, and related not a threat to the emperor penguin in resources in Antarctica’’ were adopted species; and (3) prevention of changes any portion of its range now or in the in 1964. They were incorporated into or minimization of risks of ecosystem foreseeable future. the Protocol on Environmental changes. CCAMLR has been active in In addition, we are unaware of any Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, assessing the status of krill and species overutilization for other commercial, which was ratified in 1991 and entered dependent upon krill, such as birds and recreational, scientific, or educational into force in January 1998. In the mammals; regulating the harvest of purposes that is a threat to the emperor protocol, the Parties to the Antarctic Patagonian tooth fish (Dissostichus penguin in any portion of its range now Treaty committed themselves to the spp.); and ecosystem monitoring with or in the foreseeable future. comprehensive protection of the goal of detecting changes in critical Factor C: Disease or Predation Antarctica’s environment and components of ecosystems. dependent and associated ecosystems, We find, on the basis of the protection Antarctic species, such as the emperor and they designated Antarctic as a and management of Antarctic penguin, are potentially susceptible to reserve devoted to peace and science ecosystems under the Antarctic Treaty the introduction of avian diseases from (Jatko and Penhale 1999, p. 9). Five and CCAMLR, that the inadequacy of outside the region (Jones and Shellam annexes to the protocol address specific regulatory mechanisms is not a threat to 1999, p. 182). Gardner et al. (1997, p. areas of environmental protection, the emperor penguin in any portion of 245) found antibodies of an avian including environmental impact its range now or in the foreseeable pathogen, Infectious Bursal Disease assessment, conservation of Antarctic future. Virus (IBDV), in 65.4 percent of 52 fauna and flora, waste disposal and Factor E: Other Natural or Manmade emperor penguin chicks sampled at the waste management, prevention of Factors Affecting the Continued Auster colony on the Mawson Coast in marine pollution, and the designation Existence of the Species 1995, although no evidence of clinical and management of protected areas. disease was present. This pathogen of Annex II of the Protocol includes Fishery Interactions domestic chickens may have been prohibitions on killing, capturing, introduced by humans into this area. We have found no evidence of fishing handling, or disturbing animals or impacts on emperor penguins in the The authors suggested that careless or harmfully interfering with their habitat, inappropriate disposal of poultry foraging range of adults along the as well as tight restrictions on the continental margins. Kooyman et al. products, allowing access by scavenging introduction of nonnative species; birds or inadvertent tracking by (1996, p. 397) found that juveniles range Annex III provides a comprehensive north into waters where commercial humans, was a potent source for spread system of requirements for management of this environmental contaminant. The fishing may occur and noted the of wastes generated in Antarctica, importance of determining the dispersal authors concluded that the potential for including elimination of landfills; and tourists or expeditions to be vectors of patterns of the young to ensure adequate Annex IV addresses requirements to protection. Kooyman (2002, p. 492) also disease may pose a significant threat to prevent marine pollution from ships Antarctic avifauna. Although disease noted that the Antarctic Treaty and operating in the Antarctic Treaty area CCAMLR extend only to the 60th may be a stressor to penguins, the (Jatko and Penhale 1999, pp. 9–10). As Antarctic Treaty Parties have parallel in this region of Antarctica. noted above, guidelines for activities in However, we are unaware of any reports subsequently addressed concerns over Antarctica directly address these the introduction of disease and invasive of fisheries interactions with emperor prohibitions on the introduction of penguin juveniles and have no reason to species in protocols to the treaty and nonnative species as well as disposal of guidelines arising out of them. These are believe that this potential stressor will garbage (IAATO 2007a, pp.1–4). The occur at a level to impact this species in discussed below under Factor D. Scientific Committee on Antarctic We are unaware of any information the future. Research, originally established by the relative to detrimental predation International Council of Scientific Oil Pollution impacts on the emperor penguin, either Unions, provides scientific advice to the from native or nonnative species. Annex IV of the Protocol on In conclusion, we find that neither Treaty Parties (Jatko and Penhale 1999, Environmental Protection to the disease nor predation is a threat to the p. 8). Antarctic Treaty sets out requirements species in any portion of its range now Because the Antarctic Treaty does not to prevent pollution from ships or in the foreseeable future. affect the rights of any State under operating in the Antarctic Treaty area international law with respect to the (Jatko and Penhale 1999, p. 10). The Factor D: The Inadequacy of Existing high seas, a series of separate November 2007 sinking of the cruise Regulatory Mechanisms conventions have been negotiated and ship MV Explorer near the Antarctic The Antarctic Treaty, which entered ratified with respect to the exercise of Peninsula illustrates the possibility of into force in 1961, applies to the area rights in the seas around Antarctica. In oil spills and other ship-based pollution south of 60 °S latitude including all ice particular, CCAMLR addresses the from increased vessel traffic in Antarctic shelves (Antarctic Treaty area). The conservation of marine resources. waters. The MV Explorer, which held primary purpose of the treaty, which Article II ‘‘defines the objective of this about 48,000 gallons (181,680 liters) of has 28 full members or Parties, is to Convention as the conservation of marine diesel fuel when it sank (Austen ensure ‘‘in the interests of all mankind Antarctic marine living resources and 2007, p. 1), did not sink near emperor that Antarctica shall continue forever to states that conservation includes penguin colonies, but it did sink in the be used exclusively for peaceful rational use of harvesting’’ (Jatko and vicinity of colonies of other penguin purposes and shall not become the Penhale 1999, p. 11). CCAMLR operates species. As noted in the discussion of scene of international discord’’ (Jatko on three principles: (1) Prevention of Factor B above, emperor penguin

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colonies are not a significant destination predict that physical changes in the sea- above, the emperor penguin is an ice- of the increasing tourist activity in ice and marine habitats will continue to dependent species, and changes in the Antarctica. The wide dispersal of have an impact on individual colonies, physical environment can affect emperor penguin colonies around especially smaller marginal colonies, individual colonies. At the current time, Antarctica mitigates the concern that a but we have no reason to believe the based on the best available scientific single vessel accident could affect the physical changes will have population evidence, we conclude that no current population of emperor penguins, as level impacts. Thus, the foreseeable directional climatic changes are does the fact that emperor penguin future includes the consideration of the affecting the habitat of the emperor activity at rookeries may be reduced at effects of such changes on the viability penguin, and we do not have sufficient the time of year when vessel traffic of the emperor penguin. scientific information to make reliable becomes significant. Vessel operations predictions as to declines of the species Emperor Penguin Finding in the vicinity of emperor penguin in the foreseeable future. Also, we are colonies, near summer molting areas or We have carefully assessed the best unaware of any reports of diseases in elsewhere in their foraging range, available scientific and commercial emperor penguins, fishery interactions remain a source of concern. Although information regarding the past, present, with juvenile penguins, or oil spills that we consider this a potential stressor to and potential future threats faced by the have affected emperor penguins. the emperor penguin, we have no reason emperor penguin above. To determine Therefore, the emperor penguin is to believe oil pollution will occur at a whether the stressors identified above neither threatened nor endangered due level to impact this species in the individually or collectively rise to the to threats that began recently enough future. level of a threat such that the emperor that their effects are not yet manifested Therefore, we find that fishery penguin is in danger of extinction in a long-term decline. interactions and oil pollution are not throughout its range or likely to become Then, we considered whether any of threats to the emperor penguin in any so within the foreseeable future, we the stressors were likely to increase portion of its range now or in the considered whether the stressors were within the foreseeable future, such that foreseeable future. causing a long-term, population decline the species is likely to become or were likely to do so in the future. endangered. As explained in greater Foreseeable Future As discussed above, the overall detail in Factor A, climate model A general discussion of threatened emperor penguin population is simulations of winter and summer mean species and foreseeable future can be estimated at 195,000 breeding pairs in sea-ice concentrations around found above in the southern rockhopper approximately 45 colonies distributed Antarctica for the period 2080–2100 penguin Foreseeable Future section. around the perimeter of the Antarctic project declines in sea-ice In considering the foreseeable future continent. We consider the population concentrations from those observed in as it relates to the status of the emperor to be currently stable, and we are not the 1980–2000 timeframe (Bracegirdle et penguin, we analyzed the stressors aware of significant historical or current al. 2008, p. 8; Meehl et al. 2007, p. 771). acting on this species. We reviewed the declines. Observed fluctuations in While these model simulations exhibit historical data to identify any relevant numbers at specific colonies, extensive deviation around mean existing trends that might allow for particularly smaller ones, are ongoing predictions, they provide a general reliable prediction of the future (in the and have been attributed to physical picture of future Antarctic sea-ice form of extrapolating the trends). We events in the harsh Antarctic conditions in the range of the emperor also considered whether we could environment and seasonal, annual, and penguin. They show winter sea-ice reliably predict any future events (not longer cyclical climatic or reductions by 2080–2100, with sea-ice yet acting on the species and, therefore, meteorological events. While concentrations remaining high around not yet manifested in a trend) that might observations of emperor penguin the bulk of the continent and highest in affect the status of the species. colonies are by nature constrained by the Ross, Amundsen, and Weddell Seas, As discussed above in the five-factor the logistics of reaching remote sites, and around the Mawson Coast in the analysis, we were unable to identify any and many colonies are rarely visited or Indian Ocean sector. In the 2080–2100 significant trends with respect to the poorly described (Barber-Meyer et al. timeframe, summer sea-ice stressors we identified for this species: 2007a, p. 1,565), we are unaware of concentrations also retreat, with sea ice (1) Physical changes in the sea-ice and colony changes of significance to the persisting in the Ross and Weddell Seas marine habitat; (2) potential overall population or of significant and apparently greatly reduced or not introduction of avian diseases from impacts to the emperor penguin’s sea- persisting in the Indian Ocean sector. outside the region; (3) potential fishery ice or marine habitat. We also found no The IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report interactions with juveniles that range evidence that disease, fishery (IPCC AR4), is very clear on the north into waters where commercial interaction, or oil pollution was limitations of the climate models and fishing may occur; and (4) possible oil affecting a decline in the emperor their projections (Christenson 2007, p. pollution in the vicinity of summer penguin population. Based on the best 908; Randall et al. 2007, p. 616). It is molting areas or in the penguin’s available data, we find that the difficult and premature to use these foraging range. There is no evidence that identified stressors are not causing a model results to make specific any of the stressors are growing in long-term decline in the emperor predictions about the sea-ice conditions magnitude. Thus, the foreseeable future penguin’s population. Thus, we in any particular region of emperor includes consideration of the ongoing conclude that the species is neither penguin habitat around Antarctica. This effect of current stressors at comparable threatened nor endangered due to is particularly difficult when empirical levels. factors causing ongoing population evidence to date suggests that such There remains the question of declines. continent-wide sea-ice declines have whether we can reliably predict future We also considered whether any of not yet begun. However, considering the events (as opposed to ongoing trends) the stressors began recently enough that species as a whole, these large-scale that will likely cause the species to their effects are not yet manifested in a model predictions seem to indicate that become endangered. As we discuss in long-term decline, but are likely to have emperor penguins, especially in the the finding below, we can reliably that effect in the future. As discussed Ross and Weddell Seas, are likely to

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continue to encounter suitable sea-ice physical, physiological, ecological, or In fact, the wider distribution of habitat for breeding in the winter and behavioral factors among any groups colonies between ‘‘regions’’ may molting in the summer in the 100-year within that range. We are unaware of actually be an artifact of the difficulty of timeframe (i.e., 2080–2100). Therefore, any research on genetic or visiting remote areas of the coast away we conclude that there is not sufficient morphological discontinuity between from the few research stations that exist evidence to find that climate change any elements of the population. The on the coast or difficulties of reaching effects to the habitat of the emperor range of the emperor penguin is entirely these areas at a time when breeding can penguin are likely to be a threat to the within the jurisdiction of the Antarctic be detected (Kooyman 2002, p. 492). A emperor penguin in the foreseeable Treaty and CCAMLR, except for one recent discovery of a new colony along future. In addition, as discussed above, area of the Pacific Ocean where one of the longest stretches of Wilkes disease, fishery interaction with dispersing juveniles may spend some Land led researchers to predict that juveniles, and oil pollution are not time outside of the CCAMLR zones. We more colonies will be found in one of likely to increase significantly in the find no significant differences in the longest gaps of recorded colonies. future. conservation status, habitat With each confirmed new discovery has Next, we considered whether the management, or regulatory mechanisms come evidence indicating more colonies species met the definition of an between any possible segment of the may exist. This would provide evidence ‘endangered’ or ‘threatened’ species on emperor penguin population. As a result of stronger connections between areas the basis of its present or likely future of this analysis, we do not find any (Lea and Soper 2005, pp. 59–60; Melick numbers. The total population of segments of the population of the and Bremmers 1995, p. 427) and greater 195,000 breeding pairs appears to be emperor penguin that meet the criterion potential for mixing or interbreeding stable, and we are unaware of of discreteness for determination of a between regions. significant current declines. The DPS. Therefore, we do not find a DPS In the course of our review, we have population is widely distributed on the for the emperor penguin. discussed the declines that occurred at Antarctic Peninsula and the total the small Cape Crozier and Beaufort Significant Portion of the Range Island colonies in the Western Ross Sea number of penguins is not so low that Analysis the species is currently in danger of over the period of 2001–2005 as the extinction. Having determined that the emperor result of the impact of iceberg B15A. Finally, we considered whether the penguin is not now in danger of The most recent data from 2005 species is likely to become endangered extinction or likely to become so in the indicated that the Beaufort Island in the foreseeable future because foreseeable future, we also considered colony had seen significant post-iceberg stochastic events might reduce its whether there were any significant recovery in chick counts. After an initial current numbers to the point where its portions of its range where the species breeding failure in 2001 at Cape Crozier, viability would be in question. Because is in danger of extinction or likely to the year of iceberg impact, chick counts this species is distributed in become so in the foreseeable future. See fluctuated from 247 in 2002, to 333 in approximately 45 colonies on the our analysis for the southern 2003, to 475 in 2004, to 0 in 2005, and Antarctic Peninsula, a future stochastic rockhopper penguin for how we make 340 chicks in 2006 (Barber-Meyer et al. event that negatively affected the this determination. 2007b, pp. 7, 9). Given the small current species would be unlikely to reduce the First, we examined possible portions and historic size of these colonies population to such a low level that the of the range that might be considered (averaging 526 (Cape Crozier) and 896 species would be in danger of significant, and then we considered (Beaufort Island) chicks over 22 years) extinction. whether there were any portions of the and their location in the vicinity of four On the basis of analysis of the five range where the threats were different or other larger emperor penguin colonies factors and the best available scientific concentrated in particular areas. in the western Ross Sea with chick and commercial information, we find Woehler (1993, p. 5) described three counts averaging from 2,843 (Franklin that the emperor penguin is not main areas, each of which encompasses Island), to 19,776 (Cape Washington), to currently threatened or endangered in a large area of the Antarctic coast: (1) 23,859 (Coulman Island) and to 6,215 any portion of its range or likely to The Weddell Sea and Dronning Maud (Cape Roget) chicks) over the same become so in the foreseeable future. Land; (2) Enderby and Princess period, we do not consider these Elizabeth lands; and (3) the Ross Sea. colonies to represent a significant Distinct Population Segment Within these areas, colonies are widely portion of the range of the emperor A discussion of distinct population distributed along the coastline, and each penguin. segments and the Service policy can be is very isolated from its nearest neighbors. The area ‘‘between’’ these Finding of Emperor Penguin SPR found above in the southern rockhopper Analysis penguin Distinct Population Segment general regions is not a distinct section. geographical barrier, but an area where Given the current stability of colonies are spread even more sparsely conditions for the emperor penguin Discreteness Analysis along the coast. In these areas, there is throughout its range and the paucity of A discussion of discreteness can be a longer distance between the current stressors identified, we do not found above in the southern rockhopper individual colonies or ‘‘links’’ in the find through our five-factor analysis any penguin Discreteness Analysis section. chain of colonies encircling most of the stressor that has the potential to affect Emperor penguins have a continuous continent. During the period of molting, any one portion of the range of the range from Marie Byrd Land east of the adult penguins range widely and often emperor penguin differently than any Ross Sea to the Weddell Sea. With into the vicinity of other colonies. For other. With respect to the longer-term respect to discreteness, while the example, Wienecke et al. (2004, p. 90) issue of changes in sea-ice cover, we do emperor penguin can be found in three inferred potential mixing at sea between not find that current models provide broadly defined areas of distribution, we birds from four colonies along the sufficient predictive power to evaluate are unaware of any marked separation Mawson Coast and suggested this was a regional scenarios with confidence or to between areas of abundance of the potential vehicle for interbreeding of make distinctions as to the potential emperor penguin or of differences in birds from different colonies. risks to any particular portion of the

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range. For these reasons, we conclude hours, at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife sell or offer for sale in interstate or that there are no portions of the emperor Service, Division of Scientific foreign commerce, any endangered penguin’s range that warrant further Authority, 4401 N. Fairfax Drive, Room wildlife species. It also is illegal to consideration as significant portions of 110, Arlington, VA 22203; telephone possess, sell, deliver, carry, transport, or the range. 703–358–1708. ship any such wildlife that has been taken in violation of the Act. Certain Available Conservation Measures Final Determination for the Emperor exceptions apply to agents of the Penguin Conservation measures provided to Service and State conservation agencies. On the basis of analysis of the five species listed as endangered or We may issue permits to carry out factors and the best available scientific threatened under the Act include otherwise prohibited activities and commercial information, we find recognition, requirements for Federal involving endangered and threatened that listing the emperor penguin as protection, and prohibitions against wildlife species under certain threatened or endangered under the Act certain practices. Recognition through circumstances. Regulations governing in all or any significant portion of its listing results in public awareness, and permits are codified at 50 CFR 17.22 for range is not warranted. encourages and results in conservation endangered species, and at 17.32 for actions by Federal governments, private threatened species. With regard to Public Comments Solicited on the agencies and groups, and individuals. endangered wildlife, a permit must be Proposed Rule To List the Southern Section 7(a) of the Act, as amended, issued for the following purposes: for Rockhopper Penguin in the Campbell and as implemented by regulations at 50 scientific purposes, to enhance the Plateau Portion of Its Range CFR part 402, requires Federal agencies propagation or survival of the species, We intend that any final action to evaluate their actions within the and for incidental take in connection resulting from this proposal will be as United States or on the high seas with with otherwise lawful activities. accurate and as effective as possible. respect to any species that is proposed Peer Review Therefore, we request comments or or listed as endangered or threatened, suggestions on this proposed rule. We and with respect to its critical habitat, In accordance with our joint policy particularly seek comments concerning: if any is being designated. However, with National Marine Fisheries Service, (1) Biological, commercial, trade, or given that the Campbell Plateau portion ‘‘Notice of Interagency Cooperative other relevant data concerning any of the range of the New Zealand/ Policy for Peer Review in Endangered threats (or lack thereof) to this species Australia Distinct Population Segment Species Act Activities,’’ published in and regulations that may be addressing (DPS) of the southern rockhopper the Federal Register on July 1, 1994 (59 those threats. penguin is not native to the United FR 34270), we will seek the expert (2) Additional information concerning States, critical habitat is not being opinions of at least three appropriate the range, distribution, and population designated for these species under independent specialists regarding this size of this species, including the section 4 of the Act. proposed rule. The purpose of peer locations of any additional populations Section 8(a) of the Act authorizes review is to ensure that our proposed of this species. limited financial assistance for the rule is based on scientifically sound (3) Any information on the biological development and management of data, assumptions, and analyses. We or ecological requirements of the programs that the Secretary of the will send copies of this proposed rule to species. Interior determines to be necessary or the peer reviewers immediately (4) Current or planned activities in the useful for the conservation of following publication in the Federal areas occupied by the species and endangered and threatened species in Register. We will invite these peer possible impacts of these activities on foreign countries. Sections 8(b) and 8(c) reviewers to comment during the public this species. of the Act authorize the Secretary to comment period, on our specific You may submit your comments and encourage conservation programs for assumptions and conclusions regarding materials concerning this proposed rule foreign endangered species and to this proposed rule. by one of the methods listed in the provide assistance for such programs in We will consider all comments and ADDRESSES section. We will not the form of personnel and the training information we receive during the consider comments sent by e-mail or fax of personnel. comment period on this proposed rule or to an address not listed in the The Act and its implementing during our preparation of a final ADDRESSES section. regulations set forth a series of general determination. Accordingly, our final If you submit a comment via http:// prohibitions and exceptions that apply decision may differ from this proposal. www.regulations.gov, your entire to all endangered and threatened comment—including any personal wildlife. As such, these prohibitions Public Hearings identifying information—will be posted would be applicable to the Campbell The Act provides for one or more on the website. If you submit a Plateau portion of the range of the New public hearings on this proposal, if we hardcopy comment that includes Zealand/Australia Distinct Population receive any requests for hearings. We personal identifying information, you Segment (DPS) of the southern must receive your request for a public may request at the top of your document rockhopper penguin. These hearing within 45 days after the date of that we withhold this information from prohibitions, under 50 CFR 17.21, make this Federal Register publication (see public review. However, we cannot it illegal for any person subject to the DATES). Such requests must be made in guarantee that we will be able to do so. jurisdiction of the United States to writing and be addressed to the Chief of We will post all hardcopy comments on ‘‘take’’ (take includes harass, harm, the Division of Scientific Authority at http://www.regulations.gov. pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, the address shown in the FOR FURTHER Comments and materials we receive, capture, collect, or to attempt any of INFORMATION CONTACT section. We will as well as supporting documentation we these) within the United States or upon schedule public hearings on this used in preparing this proposed rule, the high seas, import or export, deliver, proposal, if any are requested, and will be available for public inspection receive, carry, transport, or ship in announce the dates, times, and places of on http://www.regulations.gov, or by interstate or foreign commerce in the those hearings, as well as how to obtain appointment, during normal business course of a commercial activity, or to reasonable accommodations, in the

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Federal Register at least 15 days before (a) Be logically organized; Service (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION the first hearing. (b) Use the active voice to address CONTACT). readers directly; Required Determinations (c) Use clear language rather than List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 17 Regulatory Planning and Review jargon; Endangered and threatened species, (Executive Order 12866) (d) Be divided into short sections and Exports, Imports, Reporting and sentences; and recordkeeping requirements, The Office of Management and Budget (e) Use lists and tables wherever Transportation. has determined that this rule is not possible. significant under Executive Order If you feel that we have not met these Proposed Regulation Promulgation 12866. requirements, send us comments by one of the methods listed in the ADDRESSES Accordingly, we propose to amend National Environmental Policy Act part 17, subchapter B of chapter I, title (NEPA) section. To better help us revise the rule, your comments should be as 50 of the Code of Federal Regulations, We have determined that specific as possible. For example, you as set forth below: environmental assessments and should tell us the numbers of the PART 17—[AMENDED] environmental impact statements, as sections or paragraphs that are unclearly defined under the authority of the written, which sections or sentences are National Environmental Policy Act of 1. The authority citation for part 17 too long, the sections where you feel continues to read as follows: 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), need not lists or tables would be useful, etc. be prepared in connection with Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1361–1407; 16 U.S.C. regulations adopted under section 4(a) References Cited 1531–1544; 16 U.S.C. 4201–4245; Public Law of the Act. We published a notice A complete list of the references cited 99–625, 100 Stat. 3500; unless otherwise noted. outlining our reasons for this in this notice is available on the Internet determination in the Federal Register at http://www.regulations.gov or upon 2. Amend § 17.11(h) by adding a new on October 25, 1983 (48 FR 49244). request from the Division of Scientific entry for ‘‘Penguin, southern rockhopper’’ in alphabetical order under Clarity of the Rule Authority, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION BIRDS to the List of Endangered and We are required by Executive Orders CONTACT). Threatened Wildlife as follows: 12866 and 12988, and by the Presidential Memorandum of June 1, Author § 17.11 Endangered and threatened 1998, to write all rules in plain The authors of this proposed rule are wildlife. language. This means that each rule we staff of the Division of Scientific * * * * * publish must: Authority, U.S. Fish and Wildlife (h) * * *

Species Vertebrate popu- Historic range lation where endan- Status When listed Critical Special Common name Scientific name gered or threatened habitat rules

******* BIRDS

******* Penguin, southern Eudyptes Southern Ocean, New Zealand— T NA NA rockhopper. chrysocome. South Atlantic Campbell Plateau. Ocean, South Pa- cific Ocean, Southern Indian Ocean.

*******

* * * * * Dated: December 2, 2008 . H. Dale Hall, Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. [FR Doc. E8–29673 Filed 12–17–08; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 4310–55–P

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