The Case of Mexico
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Wright State University CORE Scholar Browse all Theses and Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 2011 When Prohibition and Violence Collide: The Case of Mexico Kyleigh M. Clark Wright State University Follow this and additional works at: https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/etd_all Part of the International Relations Commons Repository Citation Clark, Kyleigh M., "When Prohibition and Violence Collide: The Case of Mexico" (2011). Browse all Theses and Dissertations. 1070. https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/etd_all/1070 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at CORE Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Browse all Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of CORE Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WHEN PROHIBITION AND VIOLENCE COLLIDE: THE CASE OF MEXICO A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By KYLEIGH CLARK B.A. International Studies, Wright State University, 2009 2011 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL November 18,2011 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Kyleigh Clark ENTITLED When Violence and Prohibition Collide: The Case of Mexico BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. ______________________________ December Green, Ph.D. Thesis Director ______________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Master of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination: ___________________________________ December Green, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ___________________________________ Laura Luehrmann, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ___________________________________ Nancy Broughton, Ph.D. Department of Modern Languages ______________________________ Andrew T. Hsu, Ph.D. Dean, Graduate School ABSTRACT Clark, Kyleigh. M.A., Department of Political Science, Wright State University, 2011. When Prohibition and Violence Collide: The Case of Mexico. Some theorists have found a positive correlation between increased drug prohibition enforcement and a rise in violence. These studies focus on the United States and Colombia, arguing that prohibition amplifies violence, rather than decreasing it. Much like the United States and Colombia earlier in their histories, Mexico has recently experienced an escalation in violence. Since beginning a democratic transition in 2000, the Mexican government has intensified a war on drugs by strengthening the rule of law, battling corruption, and cooperating with the United States’ drug war. This study, using a congruence method with process-tracing, will analyze the Mexican case in depth, with the goal of determining whether increased drug prohibition enforcement has escalated drug-related violence in Mexico, and what effect the violence has on the legitimacy of democracy itself in Mexico. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION RESEARCH QUESTION 2 SUB-QUESTIONS 2 27 LITERATURE REVIEW 3 DEMOCRATIZATION AND THE RULE OF LAW 3 PROHIBITION AND VIOLENCE 4 VIOLENCE AND ITS EFFECT ON DEMOCRACY 7 METHODOLOGY 9 CONCLUSION 12 CHAPTER I: OVERVIEW OF MEXICAN POLITICS AND PROHIBITION, 1910-1994 INTRODUCTION 13 POLITICS OF MEXICO UNDER THE PRI, 1910-1994 13 UNITED STATES INFLUENCE ON MEXICAN POLITICS, 1910-1994 25 CONCLUSION 27 CHAPTER II: THE RULE OF LAW UNDER AND AFTER THE PRI INTRODUCTION 28 THE RULE OF LAW UNDER THE PRI, 1910-1994 28 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON THE RULE OF LAW UNDER THE PRI, 1910-1994 30 ANALYSIS 30 27 THE RULE OF LAW UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 31 RULE OF LAW REFORMS UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 31 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON THE RULE OF LAW UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 36 ANALYSIS 37 THE RULE OF LAW UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 41 RULE OF LAW REFORMS UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 42 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON THE RULE OF LAW UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 46 ANALYSIS 47 THE RULE OF LAW UNDER CALDERÓN, 2006-2010 53 RULE OF LAW REFORMS UNDER CALDERÓN, 2006-2010 53 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON THE RULE OF LAW UNDER CALDERÓN, 2006-2010 57 ANALYSIS 58 CONCLUSION 62 24 CHAPTER III: PROHIBITION UNDER AND AFTER THE PRI INTRODUCTION 64 PROHIBITION UNDER THE PRI, 1910-1994 64 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON PROHIBITION UNDER THE PRI, 1910-1994 70 ANALYSIS 71 27 PROHIBITION UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 72 iv PROHIBITIONARY REFORMS UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 73 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON PROHIBITION UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 74 ANALYSIS 75 PROHIBITION UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 76 PROHIBITIONARY REFORMS UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 77 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON PROHIBITION UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 79 ANALYSIS 80 PROHIBITION UNDER CALDERÓN, 2006-2010 81 PROHIBITIONARY REFORMS UNDER CALDERÓN, 2006-2010 82 UNITED STATES’ INFLUENCE ON PROHIBITION UNDER CALDERÓN, 2006-2010 84 ANALYSIS 85 CONCLUSION 86 24 CHAPTER IV: HOMICIDE LEVELS AND CITIZEN VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY UNDER AND AFTER THE PRI INTRODUCTION 88 27 HOMICIDE LEVELS UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 88 ANALYSIS 89 HOMICIDE LEVELS UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 91 ANALYSIS 92 HOMICIDE LEVELS UNDER CALDERÓN, 2006-2010 94 ANALYSIS 95 MEXICAN CITIZENS’ VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY UNDER ZEDILLO, 1994-2000 96 ANALYSIS 100 MEXICAN CITIZENS’ VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY UNDER FOX, 2000-2006 101 ANALYSIS 102 MEXICAN CITIZENS’ VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY UNDER CALDERÓN, 1994-2000 103 ANALYSIS 105 ANALYSIS OF THE HYPOTHESIS, 2000-2010 106 CONCLUSION 109 CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION INTRODUCTION 111 27 97 WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE OF THE WAR ON DRUGS IN MEXICO? 111 CONCLUSION 116 BIBLIOGRAPHY 119 v LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES FIGURES Figure 2.1: CPI Index During the Zedillo Era, 1995-2000 39 Figure 2.2: WGI of Rule of Law Percentile During the Zedillo Era, 1996-2000 39 Figure 2.3: CPI Index During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 51 Figure 2.4: WGI of Rule of Law Percentile During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 52 Figure 2.5: CPI Index During the Calderón Era, 2006-2010 60 Figure 2.6: WGI of Rule of Law Percentile During the Calderón Era, 2006-2009 61 Figure 3.1: Expenditures on Anti-Drug Efforts During the Zedillo Era, 1994-2000 74 Figure 3.2: Expenditures on Anti-Drug Efforts During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 79 Figure 3.3: Expenditures on Anti-Drug Efforts During the Calderón Era, 2006-2009 84 Figure 4.1: Homicides During the Zedillo Era, 1994-2000 89 Figure 4.2: Number of Drug-Related Homicides Compared to Expenditures on Anti-Drug Efforts During the Zedillo Era, 1994-2000 90 Figure 4.3: Drug-Related Homicides During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 92 Figure 4.4: Number of Drug-Related Homicides Compared to Expenditures on Anti-Drug Efforts During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 93 Figure 4.5: Drug-Related Homicides During the Calderón Era, 2006-2010 95 Figure 4.6: Number of Drug-Related Homicides Compared to Expenditures on Anti-Drug Efforts During the Calderón Era, 2006-2009 96 Figure 4.7: Support for Democracy During the Zedillo Era, 1995-2000 99 Figure 4.8: Number of Homicides Compared to Support for Democracy During the Zedillo Era, 1995-2000 100 Figure 4.9: Support for Democracy During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 102 Figure 4.10: Drug-Related Homicides Compared with Support for Democracy During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 103 vi Figure 4.11: Support for Democracy During the Calderón Era, 2006-2010 104 Figure 4.12: Number of Drug-Related Homicides Compared to Support for Democracy During the Calderón Era, 2006-2010 106 Figure 4.13: Number of Drug-Related Homicides Compared to Expenditures on Anti- Drug Efforts, 2001-2009 107 Figure 4.14: Number of Drug-Related Homicides Compared to Support for Democracy, 2000-2010 109 TABLES Table 4.1: Support for Democracy During the Zedillo Era, 1995-2000 99 Table 4.2: Support and for Democracy During the Fox Era, 2000-2006 101 Table 4.3: Support for Democracy During the Calderón Era, 2006-2010 104 vii ACRONYMS AFA- Agencia Federal Antisecuestros; Federal Anti-kidnapping Agency AFI- Agencia Federal de Investigación; Federal Agency of Investigations ANSJL- Acuerdo Nacional por la Seguridad, la Justicia y la Legalidad; National Agreement for Security, Justice and Legality CITCC- Comisión Intersectorial para la Transparencia y el Combate a la Corrupción en la Administración Publica Federal; Interministerial Commission for Transparency and Against Corruption in Federal Public Administration EZLN- Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional; Zapatista Army of National Liberation FEADS- Fiscalía Especializada en Atención de Delitos contra la Salud; The Prosecutor Specializing in Crimes Against Health ICC- International Criminal Court ICESI- Instituto Ciudadano de Estudios Sobre la Inseguridad; The Civic Institute of Studies on Insecurity IFE- Instituto Federal Electoral; Federal Electoral Institute INEGI- Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía; National System of Statistical and Geographical Information INM- Instituto Nacional de Migración; National Institute of Migration LFcDO- Ley Federal contra la Delincuencia Organizada; The Federal Law Against Organized Crime OECD- Organization for Economic Corruption and Development OMS- Operativo México Seguro; Operation Safe Mexico PAN- Partido Acción Nacional; National Action Party PF- Policía Federal; Federal Police PFM- Policía Federal Ministerial; Federal Ministerial Police PFP- Policía Federal Preventiva; Federal Preventative Police viii PGR- Procuradura General de la República; Offices of the Attorney General PJF- Policía Judicial Federal; Federal Judicial Police PRI- Partido Revolucionario Institucional; Institutional Revolutionary Party PRD- Partido de la Revolución Democrática; Party of the Democratic Revolution