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FINAL PROGRAM Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia, USA December 10 - 14, 2017 2017 Program Committee

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SR A 2017 RISK ANALYSIS The Profession · The Practitioners · The Research FINAL PROGRAM Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia, USA December 10 - 14, 2017 2017 Program Committee Terje Aven Stanley Jennifer Jill Drupa Natalie Judd Melanie Preve Britania Levinson Rosenberg Weinstein Amanda Bailey Tony Barrett Ken Bogen Weihsueh Chiu Chris Clarke Roger Flage Royce Francis Jeremy Chris Greene Gernand Tee Guidotti Seth Guikema Kirk T. Hartley Sandra Danail Hristozov Amber Jessup Debra Kaden James H. John Lathrop Hoffmann Lambert Steve Lewis Margaret Amir Mokhtari Roshi Nateghi Abani Pradhan Allison Reilly Vanessa Amina Wilkins Matthew Wood MacDonell Schweizer Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017 Final Program Meeting Highlights Table of Contents Meeting Events! All events take place at the Crystal Gateway Marriott, starting with the opening reception on Sunday, December 10, 6:00-7:30 PM (Cash Bar), and continuing to the closing t-shirt giveaway and raffle Council and Program Committee . 2 with a possibility of winning a trip to Norway, December 13, 5:00 PM . The meeting includes three plenary Conference Events/Committee Meetings . .3 sessions and complimentary box lunch on Monday, Awards Banquet lunch on Tuesday (comes with your Award Winners . 4 registration), and a plenary luncheon on Wednesday (also included in your registration fee) . Don’t forget Specialty Group Meetings, Mixers . 5 workshops on Sunday and Thursday - there is still room! Registration Hours . 5 Meeting Theme – “Risk Analysis – the Profession, the Practitioners, the Research” highlights the important role risk analysts have in tackling risk problems and improving the science and practice of risk analysis . Exhibitors/Exhibition Hours . 7 Workshops . 11 Poster Reception! The meeting will feature a poster reception with food and drinks on Monday evening Monday Schedule at a Glance . 16 from 6:00 to 8:00 PM . Poster set-up starts at 4:00 PM, and poster presenters will be at their posters for questions and discussion during the reception . Vote for the best poster awards on the App! Don’t miss it! Tuesday Schedule at a Glance . 18 Wednesday Schedule at a Glance . 20 Plenary Sessions . 22 What is special this year? Scientific Program Sessions . 23-29, 35-50 • Images of Risk Competition • A raffle at the t-shirt giveaway on Wednesday at 5:15 PM with a possibility of winning a trip to Norway Poster Reception/Session . 30-34 • Reflections on who we are as risk analysis professionals and what we do Author Index . 51 • More discussions of fundamental issues of risk analysis Crystal Gateway Marriott Floor Plan . 56 • Many roundtables; a special track (Salon B) of roundtables with topics of broad interest (Presidential roundtables) • A roundtable with representatives of the SRA regional organizations, and a roundtable with representatives from the various Specialty Groups Looking for WiFi? Network: Marriott_Conference Access Code: SRA2017 Plenary session on Monday begins at 8:30 AM so plan to arrive early! 2017 Final Program 1 Oral Presenter 2017 Council 2017 Program Committee Ready Room Reminder President: Margaret MacDonell Terje Aven, President-Elect and Chair See Page 5 for Hours Terje Aven Stanley Levinson, Co-Chair President-Elect: If you are presenting an oral presentation, Secretary: Sharon Friedman Jennifer Rosenberg and Jill Drupa, SRA Secretariat don’t forget to upload your presentation in the Treasurer: Bilal Ayyub Speaker Ready Room (Arlington Ballroom Office) Amanda Bailey Amber Jessup at least 24 hours prior to your presentation . If you Past Treasurer: Jacqueline Patterson Tony Barrett Debra Kaden have already uploaded your presentation file, Past President: James H . Lambert come by the Ready Room to ensure it has been Ken Bogen James H . Lambert Executive Secretary: Brett Burk received and uploaded correctly . Weihsueh Chiu John Lathrop Councilors Chris Clarke Steve Lewis Roger Flage Margaret MacDonell Joe Arvai Royce Francis Amir Mokhtari Frederic Bouder Mark your calendar! Jeremy Gernand Roshi Nateghi Robin Dillon-Merrill Dates for the 2018 - 2020 Chris Greene Abani Pradhan Annual Meetings: Bruce A . Fowler Sandra Hoffmann Tee Guidotti Allison Reilly 2018 Sally Kane Seth Guikema Vanessa Schweizer December 9-12 Patricia Nance Kirk T . Hartley Amina Wilkins Marriott New Orleans New Orleans, Louisiana Shoji Tsuchida Sandra Hoffmann Matthew Wood Robyn S . Wilson Danail Hristozov 2019 December 8-12 Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia SRA Worldwide Headquarters Crystal Gateway Marriott 2020 1313 Dolley Madison Boulevard, Suite 402 1700 Jefferson Davis Hwy, Arlington, VA 22202 December 13-17 McLean, Virginia, USA 22101 Phone: 703.920.3230 JW Marriott Austin +1 .703 .790 .1745; FAX: 703 .790 .2672 www.marriott.com/hotels/fact-sheet/travel/ Austin, Texas www .SRA org,. SRA@BurkInc com. asgw-crystal-gateway-marriott 2 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Conference Events, Committee Meetings Sunday, December 10 Specialty Group Meetings SRA Council Meeting Pick up your box lunch by the SRA registration desk 6:30 PM-10:00 PM - Arlington Ballroom Salon 5 2019 World Congress 12:00 PM-1:30 PM - See page 5 Program Committee Meeting 9:00 AM–2:00 PM - Madison SRA Fifth World Congress on Risk, Cape Town, Wednesday, December 13 2019 Specialty Group Chair Breakfast SRA Council Meeting 5:00 PM-6:00 PM - Jackson Noon–5:00 PM - Arlington Ballroom Salon 2 7:00 AM-8:00 AM - Jefferson Poster Reception Education Committee Meeting Editorial Staff Meeting 6:00 PM–8:00 PM - Salon III-VI 3:30 PM–5:00 PM - Jefferson 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Jackson Editorial Board Meeting Tuesday, December 12 SRA Agenda Environment, Systems, Decisions 5:00 PM–6:00 PM - Jefferson Editorial Board Meeting Finance Committee Meeting 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Lee SRA Welcome Reception 7:00 AM-8:00 AM - Lee 6 :00 PM- 7:30 PM - Salon III-IV Plenary Luncheon Communications Committee Meeting Noon-1:30 PM - Salon III-VI 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Jackson Included in registration fee Monday, December 11 Regions Committee Meeting T-Shirt Giveaway and Raffle Drawing New Member, Student/Young Professionals 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Madison 5:15 PM - 5:45 PM - Registration Area Breakfast 7:00 AM-8:00 AM - Skyview Audit Committee Meeting 8:00 AM-9:00 AM - Lee All SRA Students, Young Professionals, and 2016 and *** Three Lunches Included *** 2017 New Members (badges with a New Member ribbon) Plenary Session in your Registration Fees are welcome to attend. 8:30 AM–10:00 AM - Salon III-VI Monday Box Lunch, Tuesday Awards Banquet, Conferences & Workshops Committee Meeting SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting Wednesday Plenary Luncheon 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Jackson Noon–1:30 PM - Salon III-VI Please see the registration desk if you have dietary restrictions Publications Committee Meeting National Capital Area Chapter Mixer 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Lee 6:00 PM-7:30 PM - Jefferson Plenary Session Come and meet the NCAC officers and learn about All Meetings Are Open our future events. 8:30 AM–10:00 AM - Salon III-VI All meetings announced in this Specialty Group Mixers program are open, everyone is welcome 6:00 PM-7:30 PM - See page 5 and encouraged to attend . 2017 Final Program 3 2017 Specialty Group Student and International Travel Award Winners Award Winners Domenico Amodeo Yan CHi Huang Naoki Sato Applied Risk Management Matthew Baucum Jie Huang Naghmeh Sheikh Hassani Patricia Larkin Saikath Bhattacharya Yu-chieh Huang Venkateswaran Shekar Decision Analysis and Risk Géraldine Boué Shao Zu Huang Barbara Swiatkowska Sara Goto Gerald Braley Marlena Keisler Alexa Tanner Dose-Response Qiran Chen Pei-Hsuan Chang Khadija Khan Galen Treuer Alexandre Chabrelie Long Chen Huanhong Li Bairong Wang Economics and Benefits Analysis Yeong Ruey Chu Xunguo Lin Emily Wells Omer Keskin Pamela C . Cisternas Vineet Madasseri Payyappalli Catherine Wong Engineering and Infrastructure Jinzhu Yu Zachary Collier Dresden McGregor Alexa Wood Exposure Assessment Christopher Cummings Myriam Merad Kuen-Yuh Wu Mahboobeh Teimouri Ma . Brida Lea Diola Saurabh Mishra Fanfan Wu Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis James Ede Maryam Mohammadabbasi Siyuan Xian Kelli Johnson Mustafa Elmontsri Alexis Mraz Jingya YAN Microbial Risk Analysis Hao Pang Kieran Findlater Vidhyashree Nagaraju Shiyu Yang Jiin Jung Rosa Maria Flores-Serrano Kenneth Nguyen Kun Yang Occupational Health and Safety Patrick Fueta Anne-Marie Nicol Yun-Ting Yen Aubrey Langeland Emily Garner Tatyana Novikova Jina Yu Risk and Development Zoya Banan Jorge Gonzalez Ortega Alette Opperhuizen Jinzhu Yu Madison Hassler Tsuyoshi Oshita Hwa-Lung Yu Risk Policy & Law Winifred Ekezie Ruey-Lin Horng Nelson Pace Xiao Zhang Security and Defense Huiling Hu Kelsey Poinsatte-Jones Wei Zhang Matthew Smith Ming-Che Hu Barbara Rath Claire Zoellner 4 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Committee Meetings and Events Specialty Group Meetings Monday, December 11 - 12:10-1:25 PM All specialty group meetings will take place during lunch time . Registration Desk Hours Pick up your box lunch near the registration desk and attend Arlington Ballroom Foyer the meeting(s) of your choice . Sunday, December 10 4:00 PM - 6:30 PM Monday, December 11 7:00 AM - 5:00 PM 12:10-12:45 PM Tuesday, December 12 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM Dose Response (DRSG) - Salon A Wednesday, December 13 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM Economics & Benefits Analysis (EBASG) -Salon B Occupational Health & Safety (OHSSG) - Salon C Risk Communication (RCSG) - Salon FG Security & Defense (SDSG) - Salon H Key to Specialty Group Designations Ecological Risk Assessment (ERASG) - Salon
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    UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA COMMENCEMENT MAY 6-8, 2021 LIVE THE UCF CREED INTEGRITY I will practice and defend academic and personal honesty. SCHOLARSHIP I will cherish and honor learning as a fundamental purpose of my membership in the UCF community. COMMUNITY I will promote an open and supportive campus environment by respecting the rights and contributions of every individual. CREATIVITY I will use my talents to enrich the human experience. EXCELLENCE I will strive toward the highest standards of performance in any endeavor I undertake. UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA | COMMENCEMENT | MAY 6-8, 2021 About the University of Central Florida The University of Central Florida is a bold, preeminent research institution that is regularly ranked among the nation’s top 20 most innovative universities by U.S News & World Report. With more than 71,500 students, UCF is one of the largest universities in the United States and is ranked as one of the best educational values in the nation by Forbes and Kiplinger. The university benefits from a diverse faculty and staff who create a welcoming environment and opportunities for all students to grow, learn, and succeed. A Foundation for Success UCF and its 13 colleges offer more than 220 degrees at UCF AT A GLANCE UCF’s main campus, hospitality campus, health sciences campus, and through multiple regional locations. The 1,415-acre main campus is 13 miles east of downtown Dr. Alexander N. Orlando and adjacent to one of the top research parks in the nation. Other campuses throughout Central Florida Cartwright include a fully accredited College of Medicine at Lake UCF PRESIDENT SINCE APRIL 13, 2020 Nona and UCF Downtown, which opened in fall 2019 and provides innovative urban education for high-demand FOUNDED ON JUNE 10, 1963 fields such as digital media and health informatics.