FINAL PROGRAM Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia, USA December 10 - 14, 2017 2017 Program Committee

SR A 2017 RISK ANALYSIS The Profession · The Practitioners · The Research

Terje Aven Stanley Jennifer Jill Drupa Natalie Judd Melanie Preve Britania Levinson Rosenberg Weinstein

Amanda Bailey Tony Barrett Ken Bogen Weihsueh Chiu Chris Clarke Roger Flage Royce Francis Jeremy Chris Greene Gernand

Tee Guidotti Seth Guikema Kirk T. Hartley Sandra Danail Hristozov Amber Jessup Debra Kaden James H. John Lathrop Hoffmann Lambert

Steve Lewis Margaret Amir Mokhtari Roshi Nateghi Abani Pradhan Allison Reilly Vanessa Amina Wilkins Matthew Wood MacDonell Schweizer Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017 Final Program

Meeting Highlights Table of Contents Meeting Events! All events take place at the Crystal Gateway Marriott, starting with the opening reception on Sunday, December 10, 6:00-7:30 PM (Cash Bar), and continuing to the closing t-shirt giveaway and raffle Council and Program Committee ...... 2 with a possibility of winning a trip to Norway, December 13, 5:00 PM . The meeting includes three plenary Conference Events/Committee Meetings . . . .3 sessions and complimentary box lunch on Monday, Awards Banquet lunch on Tuesday (comes with your Award Winners ...... 4 registration), and a plenary luncheon on Wednesday (also included in your registration fee) . Don’t forget Specialty Group Meetings, Mixers ...... 5 workshops on Sunday and Thursday - there is still room! Registration Hours ...... 5 Meeting Theme – “Risk Analysis – the Profession, the Practitioners, the Research” highlights the important role risk analysts have in tackling risk problems and improving the science and practice of risk analysis . Exhibitors/Exhibition Hours ...... 7 Workshops ...... 11 Poster Reception! The meeting will feature a poster reception with food and drinks on Monday evening Monday Schedule at a Glance ...... 16 from 6:00 to 8:00 PM . Poster set-up starts at 4:00 PM, and poster presenters will be at their posters for questions and discussion during the reception . Vote for the best poster awards on the App! Don’t miss it! Tuesday Schedule at a Glance ...... 18 Wednesday Schedule at a Glance ...... 20 Plenary Sessions ...... 22 What is special this year? Scientific Program Sessions . . . . . 23-29, 35-50 • Images of Risk Competition • A raffle at the t-shirt giveaway on Wednesday at 5:15 PM with a possibility of winning a trip to Norway Poster Reception/Session ...... 30-34 • Reflections on who we are as risk analysis professionals and what we do Author Index ...... 51 • More discussions of fundamental issues of risk analysis Crystal Gateway Marriott Floor Plan ...... 56 • Many roundtables; a special track (Salon B) of roundtables with topics of broad interest (Presidential roundtables) • A roundtable with representatives of the SRA regional organizations, and a roundtable with representatives from the various Specialty Groups Looking for WiFi? Network: Marriott_Conference Access Code: SRA2017 Plenary session on Monday begins at 8:30 AM so plan to arrive early!

2017 Final Program 1 Oral Presenter 2017 Council 2017 Program Committee Ready Room Reminder President: Margaret MacDonell Terje Aven, President-Elect and Chair See Page 5 for Hours Terje Aven Stanley Levinson, Co-Chair President-Elect: If you are presenting an oral presentation, Secretary: Sharon Friedman Jennifer Rosenberg and Jill Drupa, SRA Secretariat don’t forget to upload your presentation in the Treasurer: Bilal Ayyub Speaker Ready Room (Arlington Ballroom Office) Amanda Bailey Amber Jessup at least 24 hours prior to your presentation . If you Past Treasurer: Jacqueline Patterson Tony Barrett Debra Kaden have already uploaded your presentation file, Past President: James H . Lambert come by the Ready Room to ensure it has been Ken Bogen James H . Lambert Executive Secretary: Brett Burk received and uploaded correctly . Weihsueh Chiu John Lathrop Councilors Chris Clarke Steve Lewis Roger Flage Margaret MacDonell Joe Arvai Royce Francis Amir Mokhtari Frederic Bouder Mark your calendar! Jeremy Gernand Roshi Nateghi Robin Dillon-Merrill Dates for the 2018 - 2020 Chris Greene Abani Pradhan Annual Meetings: Bruce A . Fowler Sandra Hoffmann Tee Guidotti Allison Reilly 2018 Sally Kane Seth Guikema Vanessa Schweizer December 9-12 Patricia Nance Kirk T . Hartley Amina Wilkins Marriott New Orleans New Orleans, Louisiana Shoji Tsuchida Sandra Hoffmann Matthew Wood Robyn S . Wilson Danail Hristozov 2019 December 8-12 Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia SRA Worldwide Headquarters Crystal Gateway Marriott 2020 1313 Dolley Madison Boulevard, Suite 402 1700 Jefferson Davis Hwy, Arlington, VA 22202 December 13-17 McLean, Virginia, USA 22101 Phone: 703.920.3230 JW Marriott Austin +1 .703 790. .1745; FAX: 703 .790 .2672 www.marriott.com/hotels/fact-sheet/travel/ Austin, Texas www .SRA org,. SRA@BurkInc com. asgw-crystal-gateway-marriott

2 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Conference Events, Committee Meetings

Sunday, December 10 Specialty Group Meetings SRA Council Meeting Pick up your box lunch by the SRA registration desk 6:30 PM-10:00 PM - Arlington Ballroom Salon 5 2019 World Congress 12:00 PM-1:30 PM - See page 5 Program Committee Meeting 9:00 AM–2:00 PM - Madison SRA Fifth World Congress on Risk, Cape Town, Wednesday, December 13 2019 Specialty Group Chair Breakfast SRA Council Meeting 5:00 PM-6:00 PM - Jackson Noon–5:00 PM - Arlington Ballroom Salon 2 7:00 AM-8:00 AM - Jefferson Poster Reception Education Committee Meeting Editorial Staff Meeting 6:00 PM–8:00 PM - Salon III-VI 3:30 PM–5:00 PM - Jefferson 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Jackson

Editorial Board Meeting Tuesday, December 12 SRA Agenda Environment, Systems, Decisions 5:00 PM–6:00 PM - Jefferson Editorial Board Meeting Finance Committee Meeting 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Lee SRA Welcome Reception 7:00 AM-8:00 AM - Lee 6 :00 PM- 7:30 PM - Salon III-IV Plenary Luncheon Communications Committee Meeting Noon-1:30 PM - Salon III-VI 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Jackson Included in registration fee Monday, December 11 Regions Committee Meeting T-Shirt Giveaway and Raffle Drawing New Member, Student/Young Professionals 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Madison 5:15 PM - 5:45 PM - Registration Area Breakfast 7:00 AM-8:00 AM - Skyview Audit Committee Meeting 8:00 AM-9:00 AM - Lee All SRA Students, Young Professionals, and 2016 and *** Three Lunches Included *** 2017 New Members (badges with a New Member ribbon) Plenary Session in your Registration Fees are welcome to attend. 8:30 AM–10:00 AM - Salon III-VI Monday Box Lunch, Tuesday Awards Banquet, Conferences & Workshops Committee Meeting SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting Wednesday Plenary Luncheon 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Jackson Noon–1:30 PM - Salon III-VI Please see the registration desk if you have dietary restrictions Publications Committee Meeting National Capital Area Chapter Mixer 7:30 AM-8:30 AM - Lee 6:00 PM-7:30 PM - Jefferson Plenary Session Come and meet the NCAC officers and learn about All Meetings Are Open our future events. 8:30 AM–10:00 AM - Salon III-VI All meetings announced in this Specialty Group Mixers program are open, everyone is welcome 6:00 PM-7:30 PM - See page 5 and encouraged to attend .

2017 Final Program 3 2017 Specialty Group Student and International Travel Award Winners

Award Winners Domenico Amodeo Yan CHi Huang Naoki Sato Applied Risk Management Matthew Baucum Jie Huang Naghmeh Sheikh Hassani Patricia Larkin Saikath Bhattacharya Yu-chieh Huang Venkateswaran Shekar Decision Analysis and Risk Géraldine Boué Shao Zu Huang Barbara Swiatkowska Sara Goto Gerald Braley Marlena Keisler Alexa Tanner Dose-Response Qiran Chen Pei-Hsuan Chang Khadija Khan Galen Treuer Alexandre Chabrelie Long Chen Huanhong Li Bairong Wang Economics and Benefits Analysis Yeong Ruey Chu Xunguo Lin Emily Wells Omer Keskin Pamela C . Cisternas Vineet Madasseri Payyappalli Catherine Wong Engineering and Infrastructure Jinzhu Yu Zachary Collier Dresden McGregor Alexa Wood Exposure Assessment Christopher Cummings Myriam Merad Kuen-Yuh Wu Mahboobeh Teimouri Ma . Brida Lea Diola Saurabh Mishra Fanfan Wu Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis James Ede Maryam Mohammadabbasi Siyuan Xian Kelli Johnson Mustafa Elmontsri Alexis Mraz Jingya YAN Microbial Risk Analysis Hao Pang Kieran Findlater Vidhyashree Nagaraju Shiyu Yang Jiin Jung Rosa Maria Flores-Serrano Kenneth Nguyen Kun Yang Occupational Health and Safety Patrick Fueta Anne-Marie Nicol Yun-Ting Yen Aubrey Langeland Emily Garner Tatyana Novikova Jina Yu Risk and Development Zoya Banan Jorge Gonzalez Ortega Alette Opperhuizen Jinzhu Yu Madison Hassler Tsuyoshi Oshita Hwa-Lung Yu Risk Policy & Law Winifred Ekezie Ruey-Lin Horng Nelson Pace Xiao Zhang Security and Defense Huiling Hu Kelsey Poinsatte-Jones Wei Zhang Matthew Smith Ming-Che Hu Barbara Rath Claire Zoellner

4 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Committee Meetings and Events

Specialty Group Meetings Monday, December 11 - 12:10-1:25 PM All specialty group meetings will take place during lunch time . Registration Desk Hours Pick up your box lunch near the registration desk and attend Arlington Ballroom Foyer the meeting(s) of your choice . Sunday, December 10 4:00 PM - 6:30 PM Monday, December 11 7:00 AM - 5:00 PM 12:10-12:45 PM Tuesday, December 12 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM Dose Response (DRSG) - Salon A Wednesday, December 13 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM Economics & Benefits Analysis (EBASG) -Salon B Occupational Health & Safety (OHSSG) - Salon C Risk Communication (RCSG) - Salon FG Security & Defense (SDSG) - Salon H Key to Specialty Group Designations Ecological Risk Assessment (ERASG) - Salon K ARMSG = Applied Risk Management FRASG = Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis (FRASG) - Salon 1 DARSG = Decision Analysis and Risk MRASG = Microbial Risk Analysis Risk, Policy & Law (RPLSG) - Salon 2 DRSG = Dose-Response OHSSG = Occupational Health & Safety EASG = Exposure Assessment RCSG = Risk Communication 12:50-1:25 PM EBASG = Economics & Benefits Analysis RDSG = Risk & Development Exposure Assessment (EASG) - Salon A EISG = Engineering and Infrastructure RPLSG = Risk, Policy and Law Risk & Development (RDSG) - Salon B ENMSG = Emerging Nanoscale Materials SDSG = Security and Defense Applied Risk Management (ARMSG) - Salon C ERASG - Ecological Risk Assessment Decision Analysis & Risk (DARSG) - Salon FG Emerging Nanoscale Materials (ENMSG) - Salon H Engineering & Infrastructure (EISG) - Salon K Microbial Risk Analysis (MRASG) - Salon 1 Speaker Ready Hours Arlington Ballroom Office(next to Registration Desk) Specialty Group Mixers Sunday ...... 3:00 PM - 8:00 PM Tuesday, December 12 - 6:00-7:30 PM Monday ...... 7:00 AM – 5:00 PM Mixer 1 - DRSG, MRASG, EASG, ARMSG - Skyview Tuesday ...... 7:00 . AM - 5:00 PM Mixer 2 - SDSG, DARSG, EISG, FRASG - Lee Wednesday ...... 7:00 AM - Noon Mixer 3 - RCSG, OHSG, ERASG - Jackson Mixer 4 - EBASG, ENMSG, RPLSG, RDSG - Madison

2017 Final Program 5 We are pleased to announce that on January 1, 2018, Ramboll Environ will begin using the Ramboll name to reflect our full integration with the Ramboll global organization. Learn more at www.ramboll.com.

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SRAadOctober2017v6.indd 1 10/30/17 9:40 AM Exhibitors

EBTC -Evidence-Based Toxicology Collaboration Booth: 8 Exhibition – Arlington Ballroom Foyer 615 N . Wolfe Street, W7032 Monday, December 11 ...... 10:00 AM -3:30 PM Baltimore, MD 21205 Poster Reception (Salons III-VI) ...... 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM 410-614-4990 www ebtox. org. Tuesday, December 12 ...... 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EBTC (Evidence-based Toxicology Collaboration at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School Wednesday, December 13 ...... 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM of Public Health) is an international collaboration of science, regulatory, industry and NGO leaders working together to establish, coordinate and facilitate the use of evidence- based toxicology to inform regulatory, environmental and public health decisions . ICF Booth: 5 9300 Lee Highway Fairfax, VA 22031 EPA Office of Research and Development Booth: 3 703-934-3000 www .icf com. 109 T W. . Alexander Drive Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 ICF (NASDAQ:ICFI) is a global consulting services company with over 5,000 specialized 919-541-1552 experts, but we are not your typical consultants . At ICF, business analysts and policy www epa. .gov/research specialists work together with digital strategists, data scientists and creatives . We combine U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Research and Development unmatched industry expertise with cutting-edge engagement capabilities to help organi- (ORD) conducts cutting-edge research that provides the underpinning of science and zations solve their most complex challenges . Since 1969, public and private sector clients technology for policies and decisions made by federal, state and other governmental have worked with ICF to navigate change and shape the future . Learn more at icf com. . organizations . ORD’s six research programs identify the pressing research needs with input from EPA offices and stakeholders. Research is conducted by ORD’s 3 labs, 4 centers, and 2 offices located in 14 facilities. International Society of Exposure Science (ISES) Booth: 11 1035 Sterling Road, Suite 202 Herndon, VA 20170 Evidence Partners Booth: 2 800-869-1551 www .intlexposurescience org. 2650 Queensview Drive, Suite 206 Silver Sponsor Ottawa, ON K2B 8H6, Canada The International Society of Exposure Science (ISES) promotes and advances exposure 613-212-0051 science as it relates to the complex inter-relationships between human populations, www evidencepartners. com. communities, ecosystems, wildlife, and chemical, biological, and physical agents, and Evidence Partners is the creator of DistillerSR, the world’s most widely used systematic liter- non-chemical stressors . ISES members have diverse expertise and training in biological, ature review software. DistillerSR helps users to complete reviews more efficiently while physical, environmental, and social sciences, as well as various engineering disciplines . still producing transparent, audit-ready results . It is completely customizable and perfectly ISES’ multidisciplinary expertise and international reach make it the premiere profes- suited for collaboration regardless of location . Reduce your manual workload today . sional society for practitioners associated with all aspects of exposure science .

2017 Final Program 7

P f Explore the new journal Explore homepage at: cambridge.org/JBCA June 2017 June | ISSN 1867-299X ISSN Issue 2 Issue | Discounts for Society for Risk Analysis members: SRA members print personal receive subscriptions for $60 / £40 / €50 Email [email protected] to sign up Volume 8 Volume At the Intersection of Global Law, Science and Policy Science At the Law, Intersection Global of EUROPEAN JOURNAL RISK OF REGULATION Cambridge.org/EJRR European Journal of Risk Regulation is an European forum bringing together interdisciplinary legal practitioners, academics, risk analysts and policymakers in a dialogue on how risks to individuals’ health, safety and the policy across regulated are environment wide scope The journal’s domains globally. encourages exploration of public health, aspects of safety and environmental pharmaceuticals, food and other consumer alongside a wider interpretation products regulation, of risk, which includes financial risks, natural disasters technology-related and terrorism. Editor: Alberto Alemanno, HEC Paris, France New to New Cambridge in 2017

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF RISK REGULATION Volume 8 | Issue 2 | June 2017 For full list of articles see Table of Contents EUROPEAN JOURNAL RISK OF REGULATION Articles The ‘Likeness’ of E-Cigarettes and Cigarettes in the WTO Marina Foltea and AnnaThe Regulatory Markitanova Framing of Nanotechnology as ‘Incremental’ or ‘Radical’ Innovation Stijn Smismans and ElenCan ‘Better Regulation’Stokes in the European Union really Be a Servant of Technocracy? Morten Jarlbaek Pedersen At the Intersection of Global ScienceLaw, and Policy SpecialIssue theon Implementation in Europe theof WHO RecommendationsFoodon Marketing to Children Edited by: Amandine Garde Contributors: Gerard Hastings, Amandine Garde, Godfrey Xuereb, Emma Boyland, Mimi Tatlow-Golden, Bill Jeffery, Neville Rigby, Oliver Bartlett, Sue Davies, Jane Landon, Katharina O’Cathaoir, Marie Vaale-Halberg, Hedda Bjøralt Roald, Marine Friant-Perrot, Anaëlle Chansay, Seamus Byrne, Nikhil Gokani and Ben Murphy cambridge/core/ejrr Cambridge Core Cambridge journal this about furtherFor information please go to the journal website at: Ramboll Environ Booth: 1 Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis Booth: 9 20 Custom House Street, Suite 800 c/o Evans School of Public Policy and Governance Silver Sponsor Bronze Sponsor Boston, MA 02110 University of Washington, Box 353055 617-946-6100 Parrington Hall, Room 303 www .ramboll-environ com. Seattle, WA 98195 206-616-4090 Ramboll Environ is the global Environment and Health practice of leading engineering, benefitcostanalysis.org design and consultancy company, Ramboll . Trusted by clients to manage their most challenging environmental, health and social issues, Ramboll Environ has more than The Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis (SBCA) works to improve the theory and prac- 2,700 staff worldwide. tice of benefit-cost analysis and support evidence-based policy decisions. Our members include scholars and practitioners from around the world, from government, academia, nonprofits and private industry. They represent numerous disciplines such Risk Science Center - University of Cincinnati Booth: 6 as economics, law, engineering, public policy, decision science and natural science . 160 Panzeca Way Cincinnati, OH 45267 513-558-1908 Springer Booth: 4 med .uc edu/eh/centers/rsc. 233 Spring Street RSC scientists combine a practitioner’s knowledge of the issues involved in human New York, NY 10013 781-347-1835 health risk assessment with cutting-edge toxicology expertise to develop state-of-the- www .springer com. science assessments . We provide risk science assessments and peer review, facilitate translation of exploratory results, train students and practicing scientists, and support Springer is a leading global scientific, technical and medical publisher, providing collaborative efforts to resolve health risk issues. researchers in academia, scientific institutions and corporate R&D departments with quality content via innovative information products and services . Springer is part of Springer Nature, one of the world’s leading global research, educational and profes- SETAC Booth: 10 sional publishers . 229 South Baylen Street, 2nd Floor Pensacola, FL 32502 850-469-1500 www .setac org. The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry is a not-for-profit, global professional organization comprised of some 6,000 members and institutions dedi- Resumes and Job Opportunities cated to the study, analysis and solution of environmental problems, the management and regulation of natural resources, research and development, and environmental The Annual Meeting offers an opportunity to connect jobs with job seekers. education . Please send your available job postings via email to Jennifer Rosenberg at [email protected] . Job postings and blind resumes are posted at the Since 1979, the society has provided a forum where scientists, managers and other meeting and will be held at SRA headquarters for six months after the meeting. professionals exchange information and ideas .

2017 Final Program 9 Microbial Thank you Risk Analysis to our Sponsors

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Read the latest research Continuing Education Workshops

Workshop # Workshop Title Day/Time Cost Workshops are offered Sunday and Thursday, either full day, AM half day, or PM half day. Full descriptions of each workshop are provided below WK1S Bayesian Benchmark Dose Analysis Sunday, December 10 $200 8:00 AM-12:00 PM WK2S Methods for Quantifying and Valuing Sunday, December 10 $275 Population Health Impacts 8:00 AM-12:00 PM MORNING WORKSHOPS WK14S Eliciting Judgments from Experts and Sunday, December 10 $250 Non-experts to Inform Decision-making 8:00am-12:00pm Sunday, December 10, 8:00 AM-12:00 PM WK3S Risk 101 – Understanding Epistemic, Sunday, December 10 $250 Ontological and Aleatory Uncertainty 1:00 PM-5:00 PM WK1S: Bayesian Benchmark Dose Analysis for Risk Profiling Location: Salon A WK4S Use of Risk Assessments – Sunday, December 10 FREE Cost: $200 Key Challenges and Recent Advances 1:00 PM-5:00 PM Instructor: Kan Shao, Indiana University WK5S New Approaches to Risk Analysis in Sunday, December 10 $200 This half-day workshop will provide participants with knowledge of benchmark dose (BMD) Human Biosecurity 8:30 AM-5:30 PM modeling in a Bayesian framework (including model averaged BMD estimation), hands- WK6S Categorical Regression Modeling Sunday, December 10 $300 on experience on the recently developed web-based Bayesian BMD (BBMD) estimation 8:30 AM-5:30 PM system and its application to chemical risk assessment . The Bayesian BMD modeling and analysis involves using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to fit mathematical WK7S Cumulative Risk Assessment: Sunday, December 10 $349 Addressing Combined 8:30 AM-5:30 PM dose-response models to toxicity data (mainly dichotomous and continuous data) and Environmental Stressors estimating the distributions of model parameters and quantities of interest (e .g ., BMD) by posterior samples . This important feature makes the Bayesian BMD method particularly WK8S Monte Carlo Simulation and Sunday, December 10 $290 Probability Bounds Analysis in R with 8:30 AM-5:30 PM useful for probabilistic dose-response assessment, which has been strongly advocated by Hardly Any Data the WHO/IPCS expert panel . Another extremely useful feature of this workshop is the introduction on the model averaging techniques for BMD estimation, which has been suggested WK10T Health Risk Assessment of Thursday, December 14 $230 Environmental Chemical Mixtures: 8:00 AM-12:00 PM as a preferred approach to address model uncertainty in dose-response assessment . In this Concepts, Methods, Applications workshop, participants will not only learn the concepts of model-averaged BMD analysis, but also learn how to use the BBMD system to estimate model-averaged BMD and to incor- WK11T Probabilistic Dose-Response Thursday, December 14 $300 Assessment: New Guidance from the 8:30 PM-5:30 PM porate expert judgement in the analysis . Moreover, knowledge and experience from this World Health Organization workshop will certainly better prepare registrants for Dr . Chiu’s workshop on WHO/IPCS probabilistic dose-response assessment . Participants should bring their own laptops with WK12T Developing Calibrated Risk Models Thursday, December 14 $285 recent internet browser installed (the latest version of Google Chrome is preferred) . and Improving Your Risk Intelligence 8:30 AM-5:30 PM WK13T Monte Carlo Simulation and Thursday, December 14 $290 Probability Bounds Analysis in R 8:30 AM-5:30 PM with Hardly Any Data

2017 Final Program 11 WK2S: Methods for Quantifying and Valuing Population Health Impacts individuals . The role of judgment elicitation and its limitations, problems, and risks in policy Location: Salon B analysis will also be addressed . The workshop will include presentation of two case studies Cost: $275 that will include a discussion of the selection process; elicitation protocol development, elicitation technique utilized, and the various issues that arose before, during, and after the Instructors: Kevin Brand, University of Ottawa; Sandra Hoffman, USDA elicitation process and the manner in which they were resolved . The class will also include The workshop reviews standard practices and emerging issues related to the quantification two hands-on exercises where participants will 1) learn about calibration of experts using a of a population’s health state . Particular attention is paid to the array of metrics available mobile application and 2) apply the Delphi and nominal group techniques to examine risk for this purpose, their use in quantifying population health impacts, and how these impact management issues associated with a popular topic . projections can be integrated into economic valuations . Risk assessment typically couples exposure information with an exposure-response relationship to estimate changes in incidence rates (e .g ., a mortality rate) . Expressed in this fashion (along an incident rate scale) these impact measures fall short . They do not capture the burden of disease, are not readily AFTERNOON WORKSHOPS interpretable, complicate the comparison of disease outcomes, and are not suited to a single Sunday, December 10, 1:00 PM-5:00 PM number summary . This workshop focuses on the methods required to get readily interpretable, comparable, bottom-line, summaries of health impact . A dizzying array of metrics can WK3S: Risk 101 – Understanding Epistemic, Ontological and Aleatory be used to quantify health impacts . Consider for example “avoidable deaths,” PEYLLs, life- Uncertainty for Risk Profiling expectancy, lifetime risk, HALEs, QALYs, DALEs, DALYs and “attributable-fractions” to name Location: Salon A just a few . In this workshop we survey and bring order to these variants, classifying the Cost: $250 metrics into a couple of categories. A finer grained classification is provided based on how the metric is calculated; for example does it adjust for the size and age structure of the popu- Instructor: Ronald Der, University of Liverpool lation under study. The key choices and their influence upon projected outcomes will be This presentation targets faculty and training personnel examining risk perceptions through outlined . Finally, a survey of the key steps and considerations that are required to map the multiple views of uncertainty to risk novices . The proposed ½-day workshop presenta- health impacts, expressed in units such as change in life-expectancy, into health-economic tion/tutorial focuses on understanding the nature of aleatory, epistemic and ontological evaluations will be offered. uncertainty and their impact on continuums of judgment. Judgment is heavily influenced by perception, as such how we prime ourselves to treat with uncertainty & risk requires a WK14S: Eliciting Judgments from Experts and Non-experts to Inform clearer understanding of their philosophical underpinnings . Decisionmaking WK4S: Use of Risk Assessments – Key Challenges and Recent Advances Location: Salon E Cost: $250 Location: Salon B Instructors: Aylin Sertkaya, Cristina McLaughlin Cost: FREE Decision makers must frequently rely on data or information that is incomplete or inad- Instructors: Willy Røed, University of Stavanger, Norway; Roger Flage, University of Stavanger, equate in one way or another. Judgment, often from experts and occasionally from Norway nonexperts, then plays a critical role in the interpretation and characterization of those The workshop addresses key challenges and recent advances in the use of risk assessments data as well as in the completion of information gaps . But how experts or non-experts in different industries. It is relevant for delegates familiar with basic risk analysis methods, are selected and their judgments elicited matters – they can also strongly influence the who would like to enlighten their perspectives on how to plan, execute and use risk assess- opinions obtained and the analysis on which they rely . Several approaches to eliciting judgment to adequately support decision-making. A main topic is how to effectively deal with ments have evolved . The workshop will cover topics ranging from recruitment, elicitation uncertainties and knowledge in risk assessments . The workshop includes lectures, case protocol design, different elicitation techniques (e.g., individual elicitations, Delphi method, study examples, and discussions among the participants . nominal group technique, etc .) to aggregation methods for combining opinions of multiple

12 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting FULL DAY WORKSHOPS over the continuum of the explanatory variables describing exposure conditions . The categorization of observed responses allows the expression of dichotomous, continuous, and Sunday, December 10, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM descriptive data in terms of response severity and supports the analysis of data from single studies or multiple studies. CatReg can also estimate the lower confidence limit on the dose WK5S: New Approaches to Risk Analysis in Biosecurity (the equivalent of a BMDL) associated with a given severity probability and exposure dura- Location: Salon C tion. Additionally, the meta-analytical capability of CatReg allows for the filtering of data in Cost: $200 order to determine statistically significant different responses between sexes, strains, and/or Instructors: Raina MacIntyre UNSW Sydney, Arizona State University; George Poste, Arizona species . Recently, EPA has released a new graphic-user interface for CatReg that will greatly State University; Matthew Scotch, Arizona State University, UNSW Sydney; Tom Engells increase the efficiency with which users can perform categorical regression analyses; this University of Texas Medical Branch, UNSW Sydney; Mike Lane Emory University; Sally Kane version of the software will be the focus of this training workshop. Participants need to bring UNSW Sydney. their own laptops, with CatReg installed, to the workshop. The latest version of the software Dual use research of concern (DURC) is research intended to benefit humankind, but which program can be found at: www.epa.gov/ncea/catreg . Disclaimer: The views expressed in can also cause harm, either through laboratory accidents or deliberate release . Genetic this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of engineering of pathogens and synthetic genomics (the ability to create synthetic viruses) the U .S . EPA . are examples of DURC . Open access science, biohacking (DIY biology labs) and tools such as CRISPR Cas 9 have accelerated the risk of such technology, and risk-analysis in this area WK7S: Cumulative Risk Assessment: Addressing Combined Environmental is not yet well developed . There are many similarities to cybersecurity; this area has seen Stressors quantum advances in science and technology outpacing our regulatory frameworks and Location: Salon FG approaches to risk mitigation . Risk analysis of this and other new technologies will be Cost: $349 explored in this workshop . We will also cover methods for predictive modeling which can Instructors: Linda K. Teuschler, LK Teuschler & Associates; Rick Hertzberg, Biomathematics assist in risk analysis and rapid identification of epidemics, as well as tools were differenti- Consulting; Margaret MacDonell, Argonne National Laboratory; Moiz Mumtaz, ATSDR; Jane ating natural and unnatural epidemics . The intersection of cybersecurity and health security Ellen Simmons, USEPA; Michael Wright, USEPA; Glenn E. Rice, USEPA; Peter McClure, SRC will also be covered . The workshop will be a combination of lectures, interactive case studies, Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) addresses the impacts of multiple chemical and group work and discussion, and will lead participants through the relevant background and nonchemical stressors on real world individuals and communities, resulting in complex new approaches to risk analysis . The workshop is brought to you by Global Security PLuS, a exposures for individuals and populations with a variety of vulnerabilities, in applications new initiative of Arizona State University, UNSW Sydney and Kings College London . that range from environmental justice and community sustainability to individual health promotion and protection . Nonchemical stressors include biological and physical agents WK6S: Categorical Regression Modeling (e .g ., microbes and noise) as well as socioeconomic stressors and psychosocial condi- Location: Salon D tions (e .g ., associated with natural disasters) . Public concerns that can initiate CRAs include Cost: $300 (1) elevated environmental measurements or biomonitoring data; (2) multiple sources of Instructors: J. Allen Davis, U.S. EPA; Jeff Gift, U.S. EPA; Jay Zhao; U.S. EPA pollutants or stressors; and (3) changes in disease rates or patterns (e g. ,. leukemia cluster) or ecological effects (e.g., loss of wildlife diversity). This workshop focuses on human health The objective of this full-day course is to provide participants with interactive training on and begins with an overview of three CRA elements: analysis, characterization, and quan- the use of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Categorical Regression soft- tification (as feasible) of the combined risks from multiple stressors. Teaching methods ware (CatReg) and its application to risk assessment . Categorical regression modeling include lectures and hands-on exercises . Presentations highlight basic concepts, methods, involves fitting mathematical models to toxicity data that has been assigned ordinal severity and resources for conducting a population- based CRA . A central theme is integrating expo- categories (i.e., minimal, mild, or marked effects) and can be associated with up to two sure and dose-response information with population characteristics during planning and explanatory variables corresponding to exposure conditions, usually concentration and scoping based on initiating factors . Vulnerability factors are addressed, e g. ,. diet/nutritional duration. CatReg calculates the probabilities of observing the different severity categories

2017 Final Program 13 status, behaviors, genetic traits, socioeconomic status, sensitivities, and psychosocial stress . MORNING WORKSHOP Methods for estimating human health risks are discussed and applied, including epidemi- ologic approaches and assessing the joint toxicity of chemical mixtures . In the exercises, Thursday, December 14, 8:00 AM-12:00 PM participants develop chemical, biological and physical stressor groups using exposure and toxicity factors, link them with population vulnerability factors and conduct a risk character- WK10T: Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Chemical Mixtures: ization . Participants are asked to bring a calculator . Concepts, Methods, Applications Location: Jefferson WK8S: Monte Carlo Simulation and Probability Bounds Analysis in R with Cost: $230 Hardly Any Data Instructors: Glenn E. Rice, USEPA; Linda K. Teuschler, LK Teuschler & Associates; Rick Location: Salon H Hertzberg, Biomathematics Consulting; Moiz Mumtaz, ATSDR; Jeff Swartout, USEPA Cost: $290 This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health Instructor: Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment . Chemical mixtures This revamped full-day workshop features hands-on examples worked in R on your own health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns laptop, from raw data to final decision. The workshop introduces and compares Monte Carlo over health risks from multichemical exposures . This workshop presents key concepts simulation and probability bounds analysis for developing probabilistic risk analyses when and terminology used in chemical mixtures risk assessment and discusses component little or no empirical data are available . You can use your laptop to work the examples, or methods that utilize assumptions of response addition and dose addition, including the just follow along if you prefer . The examples illustrate the basic problems risk analysts face: following dose-additive methods: the hazard index, interaction-based hazard index, rela- not having much data to estimate inputs, not knowing the distribution shapes, not knowing tive potency factors, and toxicity equivalence factors . Integrated additivity methods also their correlations, and not even being sure about the model form . Monte Carlo models will will be described . The risk assessment examples developed in the workshop are adapted be parameterized using the method of matching moments and other common strategies . from real-world mixture analyses, e g. ., waste site contaminants, pesticide applications, Probability bounds will be developed from both large and small data sets, from data with and drinking water disinfection by-product exposures . The “hands-on” exercises demon- non-negligible measurement uncertainty, and from published summaries that lack data strating the methods are an essential part of this workshop . Discussions include real world altogether . The workshop explains how to avoid common pitfalls in risk analyses, including examples, exercise results, and answers to general questions . (We ask participants to bring the multiple instantiation problem, unjustified independence assumptions, repeated vari- a calculator or laptop) . The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do able problem, and what to do when there’s little or no data . The numerical examples will not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the USEPA. be developed into fully probabilistic estimates useful for quantitative decisions and other risk-informed planning . Emphasis will be placed on the interpretation of results and on how defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available . The presentation style will be casual and interactive . Participants will receive handouts of the slides and a CD with software and data sets for the examples.

14 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting FULL DAY WORKSHOPS modeling, and risk . But, how good is our understanding of unavoidable biases in probabilities, common numerical flaws in conceiving consequences, our ability to isolate risk Thursday, December 14, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM understanding from risk taking behaviors . The unfortunate answer is that we do not know . Fortunately, methods for calibration have been emerging and being popularized over the WK11T: Probabilistic Dose-Response Assessment: New Guidance from the last two decades from scholars like Phillip Tetlock, Roger Cooke, Doug Hubbard, Ilan Yaniv, World Health Organization Dylan Evans, and others. These techniques require one to seek after objectively verifiable Location: Jackson outcomes, but in return enable an individual or an organization to track their ability to under- Cost: $300 stand the uncertain world and the effectiveness of judgments in response to uncertainty. Instructors: Weihsueh Chiu, Texas A&M University; Greg Paoli, Risk Sciences International This course focuses on developing intuition and understanding of subjective probabilities, WHO/IPCS recently published a guidance document on evaluating uncertainties in human what they are, how they can be effectively elicited, calibrated, and how to overcome stan- health dose-response assessment . Rather than single values for the point of departure dards estimation biases . The result is that we will lay a strong foundation for quantitative (POD) and for any adjustment/uncertainty factors, the WHO/IPCS approach uses uncer- risk analysis that is simple to deploy, comprehensible for even the relatively innumerate (i .e ,. tainty distributions that reflect the assumed or estimated uncertainties in each of those those who do not like to deal in numbers), and agile for continuous tracking and improving aspects. Additionally, it quantitatively defines the protection goals in terms of incidence (I) estimates of probability and risk over time . and magnitude (M) of the critical effect in the human population. By contrast, traditional approaches for developing dose-response toxicity values result in a single value (e g. ., RfD, WK13T: Monte Carlo Simulation and Probability Bounds Analysis in R with ADI) whose uncertainty is not known and for which the associated values for I and M are not Hardly Any Data quantified. By quantifying the overall uncertainties in the target human dose at explicitly Location: Lee specified values of I and M, the probabilistic approach developed by the WHO/IPCS expert Cost: $290 group allows risk managers to better weigh the benefits from reduced human health effects Instructor: Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics associated with different risk management options against other considerations, including This revamped full-day workshop features hands-on examples worked in R on your own economic costs . Further, the probabilistic analyses can inform the value of information asso- laptop, from raw data to final decision. The workshop introduces and compares Monte Carlo ciated with different options for developing a higher tier assessment. This hands-on training simulation and probability bounds analysis for developing probabilistic risk analyses when Workshop is aimed at both risk professionals interested in applying the latest approaches little or no empirical data are available . You can use your laptop to work the examples, or to dose-response assessment, as well as students and researchers interested in developing just follow along if you prefer . The examples illustrate the basic problems risk analysts face: new methods for dose-response . The Workshop will include an overview of the WHO/IPCS not having much data to estimate inputs, not knowing the distribution shapes, not knowing approach, case study exercises developing probabilistic dose-response toxicity values their correlations, and not even being sure about the model form . Monte Carlo models will using an Excel spreadsheet tool, and a discussion of broader applications of the approach, be parameterized using the method of matching moments and other common strategies . including economic benefit-cost analyses. A laptop with Microsoft Excel is required. Probability bounds will be developed from both large and small data sets, from data with non-negligible measurement uncertainty, and from published summaries that lack data WK12T: Developing Calibrated Risk Models and Improving Your Risk altogether . The workshop explains how to avoid common pitfalls in risk analyses, including Intelligence the multiple instantiation problem, unjustified independence assumptions, repeated vari- Location: Madison able problem, and what to do when there’s little or no data . The numerical examples will Cost: $285 be developed into fully probabilistic estimates useful for quantitative decisions and other Instructor: Kenneth Crowther, MITRE risk-informed planning . Emphasis will be placed on the interpretation of results and on how Our modern era is increasingly doing more complex work to support decisions, policy, secu- defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available . The presenta- rity, infrastructure protection, emergency management, and so forth . We are developing tion style will be casual and interactive . Participants will receive handouts of the slides and a methods and building tools on foundational understanding of probabilities, consequence CD with software and data sets for the examples.

2017 Final Program 15 Monday

7:00 AM-8:00 AM New Member, Students/Young Professionals Breakfast, Skyview 8:30 AM-10:10 AM Plenary Session, Salons III-VI Welcome to the 2017 SRA Annual Meeting: Terje Aven Panel discussion, Risk Analysis: An Obsolete Profession? Participants: Terje Aven, Michael Dourson, Seth Guikema, Ragnar Löfstedt, Kimberly Thompson, Pamela Williams

10:10 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D Salon E M2-A Roundtable: Risk M2-B Roundtable: Risk Analysis M2-C Decision Analysis for M2-D Symposium: Continuous M2-E Roundtable: National and Economic Analysis for Around the World: Activities in Flood Risk and Climate Change Quality Improvement: An Academies Decadal Survey of Development the SRA Regions Alternative to Standards Social and Behavioral Sciences Setting? for National Security 10:30 AM-Noon

Pick up your box lunch near the registration desk and attend the specialty group meeting(s) of your choice . See page 5 for details. 12:10 PM-12:45 PM - Dose Response (DRSG), Economics & Benefits Analysis (EBASG), Occupational Health & Safety (OHSG), Risk Communication (RCSG), Security & Defense (SDSG), Ecological Risk Assessment (ERASG), Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis (FRASG), Risk, Policy & Law (RPLSG) Noon-

1:30 PM 12:50 PM-1:25 PM - Exposure Assessment (EASG), Risk & Development (RDSG), Applied Risk Management (ARMSG), Decision Analysis & Risk (DARSG), Emerging Nanoscale Materials (ENMSG), Engineering & Infrastructure (EISG), Microbial Risk Analysis (MRASG)

M3-A Symposium: Modeling the M3-B Roundtable: Foundations M3-C Health Risk & Decision M3-D Symposium: M3-E Symposium: Game Economic Aspects of Climate of Safety Science - Perspectives Analysis Commercializing Nanoscale Theory, Decision Analysis for Change: A Critical Review of the Across Risk, Safety and Materials: Occupational Homeland Security and Disaster State of the Science Resilience Safety and Health through Management Risk Assessment and Risk Management 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer M4-A Benefits, Costs and Risks M4-B Roundtable: SRA Specialty M4-C Symposium: The Practice M4-D Symposium: Global M4-E Symposium: SETAC and for Health Environment Groups: The Profession, The and Research of Resilience Catastrophic Risk Assessment, SRA Joint Symposium on Practitioners, The Research Policy and Communication Bridging Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 3:30 PM - 5:00

6:00 PM-8:00 PM Poster Reception, Salons III-VI

16 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

10:10 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 M2-F Water Water M2-G Symposium: M2-H Listeria in the Food M2-I Symposium: M2-J Poster Platform: M2-K Everywhere Cultural Property Risk Supply Chain: Incidence Application of Systematic Interdisciplinary Risk Risk Communication in Analysis and Control Measures Reviews in Risk Communication Public Health and Medical Assessment: Case Studies, about Food and the Contexts Successes and Challenges Environment

10:30 AM-Noon from Different Domains

M3-F Symposium: The M3-G Applied Risk M3-H Evaluating the M3-I Symposium: From M3-J Roundtable: M3-K All About Energy Interface Between Management: Disruptive Impact of Risk Factors and Sensors to Risk Decisions: Applications of Automation, Infrastructure and Technologies, AI and Control Measures: From How Can We Use Sensor Computational, and Societal Resilience Cyber Drinking Water to Produce and Personal Monitoring Informatic Tools to and Nuts Data to Better Inform our Operationalize Human Risk Assessment and Health Risk Assessments 1:30 PM-3:00 PM Regulatory Decisions? at EPA

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer M4-F Infrastructure M4-G Symposium: M4-H Applied Risk M4-I Symposium: M4-J Poster Platform: M4-K Climate Change Resilience Foundational Issues in Management: Managing Opportunistic Pathogens Applications of Automation, Communication I Risk Analysis I Four Completely Different in Premise Plumbing Computational, and Risks: Mutagenic, Informatic Tools to Imparities, Civil Aviation, Operationalize Human Radon and Water Supply Health Risk Assessments

3:30 PM - 5:00 at EPA – the Genius Studio

6:00 PM-8:00 PM Poster Reception, Salons III-VI

2017 Final Program 17 Tuesday

8:30 AM-10:00 AM Plenary Session, Salons III-VI Evidence and Knowledge-Based Decision-Making in a Risk Analysis Setting: Desired Reality or Misconception? Participants: Joe Árvai, Terje Aven, Nancy Beck, Frederic Bouder, Sally M. Kane, Lisa A. Robinson 10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D Salon E T2-A Roundtable: Principles, T2-B Roundtable: T2-C Symposium: Perspectives T2-D Symposium: Using Risk T2-E Defense and Policy Methods, and Standards for Communicating about Risk: on Synthetic Biology Analysis to Address the Needs Benefit-Cost Analysis in Low- Why Doesn’t Scientific Evidence of Migrants and the Challenges and Middle-Income Countries Convince People and Political of Migration: Is it Happening? Leaders? 10:30 AM-Noon

Noon-1:30 PM SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting, Salons III-VI (Included in registration fee) Includes all SRA Awards, 5 Best Poster Award Winners from Monday’s Poster Reception, and Images of Risk Competition Winners

T3-A Symposium: New T3-B Roundtable: Scientific and T3-C Symposium: Advances in T3-D Cumulative Risk T3-E Symposium: Conflict Perspectives on the Energy Public Understanding of Risk: Probability Assessment for Risk Assessment Scenarios and Global Paradox The Role of Social Sciences Analysis Catastrophic Risks 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer T4-A Benefit-Cost Analysis of T4-B Roundtable: Developing T4-C Symposium: GIS-Aided T4-D Symposium: DOD Efforts T4-E Government Investment Complex Systems Guidelines for Each Domain of Decision Tools for Managing to Advance Risk Assessment of & Finance Strategies for Risk Risk Management Practice Environmental Risks and Nanomaterials Management Disasters 3:30 PM-5:00 PM

T5-A Roundtable: Openness in Risk Analysis: Data, Software and Reproducibility 5:15 PM - 6:00 PM

6:00 PM-7:30 PM Specialty Group Mixers (see page 5 for details)

18 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

8:30 AM-10:00 AM Plenary Session, Salons III-VI Evidence and Knowledge-Based Decision-Making in a Risk Analysis Setting: Desired Reality or Misconception? Participants: Joe Árvai, Terje Aven, Nancy Beck, Frederic Bouder, Sally M. Kane, Lisa A. Robinson 10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 T2-F Symposium: T2-G Applied Risk T2-H Risk-Informed T2-I New Models for T2-J Symposium: U .S . T2-K Roundtable: Engineering and Modeling Management: Risk Priority Setting: Methods Dose-Response National Security Interests Understanding of Resilience Culture, Risk Values, and and Challenges and Transnational Perceptions of Benefits Compliance Security Decision Making and Risks Posed by Microbiota of Milks 10:30 AM-Noon

T3-F Symposium: An T3-G Applied Risk T3-H Modeling T3-I Symposium: The Life T3-J Roundtable: What is T3-K New Developments Interdisciplinary Analysis Management: Integrated Transmission of Microbial Cycle-Human Exposure the Optimal Approach to in Risk Perception and of Multiple Risks and Risk Management, Contaminants in Poultry, Model (LC-HEM) Project: Organizing Governmental Risk Communication Lessons Learned from Systemic and Cascading Meat and Beyond Research on Sentinel Risk-Related Science Theory Flint, Michigan Risks and Aggregate Chemical Advisory Processes Exposures from Use of 1:30 PM-3:00 PM Consumer Products

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer T4-F Power Systems T4-G Symposium: T4-H Symposium: T4-I Roundtable: T4-J Revealing T4-K Exposure to Resilience Foundational Issues in Innovative Microbial Risk Synthetic Biology and Implicit and Explicit Chemical Contaminats in Risk Analysis II Modeling for Food Supply Gene Drives - Science, Risk Assessment as Food and Drinking Water Chain Policy, and Risk to Financial Risk and Government Precaution 3:30 PM-5:00 PM

6:00 PM-7:30 PM Specialty Group Mixers (see page 5 for details)

2017 Final Program 19 Wednesday

Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D Salon E W1-A Symposium: Integrated W1-B Roundtable: The EU and W1-C Symposium: Methods of W1-D From Nanotechnology W1-E Emerging Threats and Health Impact Assessment for the US Projects & Activities Quantifying Risk and Burden of Risk Management to Innovative Deterence Air Pollution and Global Climate in the Area of Resilience Foodborne Illness Governance: Developing Change in China Assessment: How Far are a Reliable and Trustable We from a Common Global Framework and Tools Approach? 8:30 AM-10:00 AM

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer W2-A Symposium: Burden of W2-B Roundtable: W2-C Risk Analysis for System W2-D Roundtable: SRA Policy W2-E Cyber and Game Theory Disease from Environmental Decentralization: What Might It Risk Analysis Forum and SRA Nano Safety Hazards in the Home and Mean for Risk Governance? Cluster Efforts Community: Why? How? What? So What? 10:30 AM-Noon

Noon-1:30 PM Plenary Luncheon, Salons III-VI (Included in registration fee) Risk Analysis and Its Scientists and Practitioners: Some Personal Stories Speakers: Anne Michiels van Kessenich and Scott Ferson W3-A Symposium: From W3-B Roundtable: Science and W3-C Atlas Shrugged: W3-D Hazard-Specific Risk W3-E Symposium: Emerging Regulating to Communicating Policy at the 2019 Fifth World Geospatial Decision Analysis Assessment Issues in Global Catastrophic Food Safety Risks, Costs, Congress on Risk Risks and Development and Benefits: PractitionersTM Challenges and Solutions 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer W4-A Frontiers in Benefit-Cost W4-B Climate Change W4-C Human Factors in W4-D Looking Across Boarders W4-E Complex Models to Solve and Risk Analysis Communication II Decision Making at Risk Assessment Policies Complex Problems 3:30 PM –5:00

5:15 PM - 5:45 PM T-Shirt Giveaway and Raffle Drawing. Possibility of winning a trip to Norway. - Registration Area

20 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 W1-F Roundtable: Conflict W1-G Applied W1-H Miscellaneous W1-I Exposure, Hazard W1-J Roundtable: W1-K Risk of Interest and Bias in Risk Managment: - Foundations and Risk Assessment: Challenges in Communication at Home Conducting Research Monitoring, Statistical Putting Exposure Back in Communicating the and the Workplace and Risk Assessments: Methods, Metrics and the Process Results of Public Health Views from Multiple Communication Benefit-risk Assessments Perspectives 8:30 AM-10:00 AM

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer W2-F Interdependent W2-G Applied Risk W2-H Foundational Issues W2-I Roundtable: W2-J Symposium: The W2-K Risk Infrastructure Systems Management: Three in Risk Analysis III Embracing Chemical Risk of Citizen Opposition: Communication and Completely Different Exposure Science for Tools to Foster Public Severe/Extreme Weather Ways to Manage Natural Effective Public Health Participation with and Hazard Risks Protection Acceptance of Energy

10:30 AM-Noon Policy Issues

Noon-1:30 PM Plenary Luncheon, Salons III-VI (Included in registration fee) Risk Analysis and Its Scientists and Practitioners: Some Personal Stories (Included in registration fee) Speakers: Anne Michiels van Kessenich and Scott Ferson W3-F Symposium: W3-G Roundtable: Does W3-H Understanding W3-I PAHs & Related W3-J Symposium: To W3-K Symposium: Integrated Research for EPAs Risk Practices Antimicrobial Resistance Compounds: Exposure Vape or Not To Vape: Risks Reshaping Risk Disaster Risk Reduction Follow its Amended TSCA as a Global Concern and Dose-Response of E-cigarette Use Assessment - New Pledges? Governance Tools for Emerging Technologies 1:30 PM-3:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM Coffee Break, Arlington Ballroom Foyer W4-F Infrastructure: W4-G Symposium: W4-H Symposium: W4-I Ambient and W4-J Symposium: Risk W4-K Symposium: Risk Climate Changes and Interdisciplinary Incorporating System Occupational Airborne Assessment in Tobacco Meets Communication: Extreme Events Perspectives on Systemic Resilience Concept in Hazards Product Regulatory A Fork in the Road or a Risks Environmental Risk Decision Making Road Less Travelled? Analysis 3:30 PM –5:00

5:15 PM - 5:45 PM T-Shirt Giveaway and Raffle Drawing. Possibility of winning a trip to Norway. - Registration Area

2017 Final Program 21 Plenary Sessions All plenary sessions are held in the Crystal Gateway Marriott, Salons III-VI

Monday, December 11, Morning Plenary Tuesday, December 12, Morning Plenary Risk Analysis: An Obsolete Profession? Evidence and Knowledge-Based Decision-Making in a Risk analysis has advanced strongly the last 30-40 years . It is Risk Analysis Setting: Desired Reality or Misconception? interdisciplinary in its scope but also developing as a science in itself . How has the post-truth society (in which objective facts are become less Yet we should ask, has it really evolved as it should? Is there a potential influential in shaping public opinion) been able to develop? Has science for reaching another level on both quality and outreach? sought to stretch its domain too widely and denied uncertainties? Or was Is there a need for revitalization and new directions for the field and SRA, to the truth not comfortable enough for those in power or seeking power? Why strengthen the research and reflect current topics like resilience and security? are “alternative facts” and “fake news” becoming household names? Should we develop specific risk analysis certificates and educational programs? As risk analysts we are aware that evidence is not only related to facts but also The panel will discuss these topics - the role of risk analysis in society and to beliefs and concerns that need to be taken into account in risk management how risk analysis as a field can be strengthened. We question, what does it and regulation . We are also aware that value judgments are equally important as really mean to be a risk analysis practitioner, professional and scientist . a basis for decision-making as is evidence in the form of data, information and justified beliefs. However, there are clear data-driven insights that one cannot Chairs: ignore . Climate change is real . And so is the risk of particulate matter for our health . Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway The panel will discuss the role of science and in particular risk Pamela Williams, E Risk Sciences science in keeping the delicate balance between factual statements Panel: and acknowledgement of uncertainty and ambiguity . Michael Dourson, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Introduction: Seth Guikema, University of Michigan Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway Ragnar Löfstedt, Kings College, London Kimberly Thompson, Kid Risk, Inc. and University of Central Florida Moderator: Sally M . Kane, Independent Consultant Panel: Joe Árvai, University of Michigan Nancy Beck, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Frederic Bouder, Maastricht University, The Netherlands Lisa A . Robinson, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Wednesday, December 13, Lunch Risk Analysis and Its Scientists and Practitioners: Some Personal Stories • Teaching kids about risk and risk analysis, Anne Michiels van Kessenich, The Netherlands • Title not yet decided: the value of procrastination in risk analysis, Scott Ferson, University of Liverpool, UK (formerly Applied Biomathematics, USA)

22 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday Technical Program Presenter’s name is asterisked (*) if other than first author. Salon B is slotted for Presidential Roundtables.

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D Salon E M2-A Roundtable: Risk M2-B Roundtable: Risk M2-C Decision Analysis for Flood M2-D Symposium: Continuous M2-E Roundtable: National and Economic Analysis Analysis Around the World: Risk and Climate Change Quality Improvement: An Academies Decadal Survey of for Development Activities in the SRA Regions Chair: Matthew Bates Alternative to Standards Setting? Social and Behavioral Sciences Chair: Elisabeth Gilmore Chair: Frederic Bouder Chair: Tee Guidotti for National Security 10:30 AM M2-C.1 Chair: Sujeeta Bhatt In this roundtable, we begin a dialogue on The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) is An Integrated Approach for Aiding 10:30 AM M2-D.1 the use of risk and economic analysis for the main arena where scientists and Collaborative Decision-Making: The Continuous Quality Improvement The National Academies of Sciences, “development and resilience”, the theme professionals from around the world Flash Flood Emergency Management in (PDCA) in Risk Management: The Engineering, and Medicine is conducting of the 2019 SRA Fifth World Congress can meet to tackle risk problems and Lorca (Spain) Deming Cycle in Achieving Risk a decadal survey of research opportuni- on Risk to be held in Cape Town, South debate the science and practice of risk Pluchinotta I, Giordano R, Pagano A, Reduction Beyond Fixed Standards ties in the social and behavioral sciences analysis . In doing so the SRA is playing that can contribute to national security . Africa . Risk and economic analysis Tsoukias A Guidotti TL provide a foundation for improving the an instrumental role towards unifying the Decadal surveys are used to assess and University Paris Dauphine formulation and review of rules and regu- field of risk research and practice, as well Occupational + Environmental Health & project research possibilities for the coming as supporting the rise of a recognisable Medicine decade . A key element of the survey is an lations in many critical areas that directly 10:50 AM M2-C.2 affect human wellbeing, such as environ- profession of ‘’risk analysts ’’. Risk research inquiry of relevant research communities Biased Risk and Benefit Perception of 10:50 AM M2-D.2 mental quality, food safety, infrastructure, and practice, on the other hand, is very for new ideas . This roundtable will gather Human and Nature-Caused Climate and security . These tools and techniques diversified, in terms of professional back- Manufacturing Novelty for a Purpose: direct input from the scientific community and other allied professionals and useful from benefit-cost analysis to mental grounds as well as country variations . This Change the Neuroscience Basis for Continual round table will discuss activities in the SRA Hoogendoorn G, Sütterlin B, Siegrist M Review and Improvement information with respect to assessment, modeling are frequently employed in characterization, and communication of developed countries, and there is the regions, exploring possible synergies and ETH Zürich O’Reilly MV collaborations . For instance participants risk . . During the roundtable, members of potential for more widespread use in ARLS Consultants, State University of the Academies’ committee and staff will development contexts . At the same time, may address issues such as: what is the 11:10 AM M2-C.3 state of risk analysis in the region? What New York engage participants in a discussion, seeking using these tools in developing countries Coastal Protection for Megacities are the hot topics?How is it evolving? The ideas regarding research concepts, methods, may introduce new considerations, such 11:10 AM M2-D.3 objective of this roundtable is to start Xian SY, Lin N, Oppenheimer M, Feng KR tools, and techniques that show particular as a wider divergence of interests among a ‘’community’’ discussion on how risk Princeton University Manifesting Quality Management and promise for building analytic capacity to the funders, governments, and benefi- analysis fares in the regions . CQI in Environmental, Health and address national security challenges . The ciaries as well as important distributional 11:30 AM M2-C.4 Safety: ISO’s Approach roundtable discussion will be an opportu- issues related benefits, costs and risks. nity for interdisciplinary discussion of areas Panelists: Accelerating Adaptation: Urgency, Redinger CF In this roundtable, academics and such as monitoring and measuring current Frederic Bouder, University of Stavanger Barriers, and Constructed Risk in Miami practitioners will discuss opportunities The Institute for Advanced Risk and evolving events, phenomena, and risks (Chair), SRA Australia and New Zealand, Beach’s Pivot to Sea Level Rise Adaptive and challenges for applying risk and Management affecting societies; developing decision Sandra Seno-Alday, University of Sidney, Stormwater Management support systems for national security initia- economic tools in developing countries SRA Canada, Nathalie de Marcellis- 11:30 AM M2-D.4 and to support development . Treuer G, Bolson J tives; avoiding errors and biases in decision Warin, CIRANO, SRA China, Chongfu University of Miami, Florida International Practical Considerations for Recycling making; and identifying and/or mitigating Huang, Beijing Normal University, SRA University Mercury-Impacted Scrap Metal incidences of insider threat . More informa- Panelists: Europe, Seda Kundak, Istanbul Technical Finster M, MacDonell M, Chang YS tion on the decadal survey is available at Ed Carr, Department of International University, SRA Europe Nordic , Marja http://nas edu/SBSDecadalSurvey. . Development, Community Environment, Ylönen, VTT Technological Research Centre Sponsored by: Argonne National Laboratory Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Clark University; Jo Anne Shatkin, Vireo of Finland, SRA Japan, Yasunobu Maeda, Panelists: Advisors; Luis Cifuentes, Pontificia Shizuoka University, SRA Korea, Yong-Jin Group 11:50 AM M2-D.5 Discussion Sujeeta Bhatt, Jonathan Moreno, Sallie Universidad Católica de Chile; Vanessa Lee, Yonsei University, SRA Latin America, Keller, Julie Schuck Schweizer, University of Waterloo; Rosa María Flores Serrano, National Aiken D Winifred Ekezie, University of Nottingham Autonomous University of Mexico Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Security and Defense Specialty Group Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Economics and Benefits Analysis and Economics and Benefits Analysis Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Risk Policy and Law Specialty Groups Specialty Group and Society for Group Benefit-Cost Analysis

2017 Final Program 23 Monday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:10 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:10 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 M2-F Water Water Everywhere M2-G Symposium: Cultural M2-H Listeria in the Food M2-I Symposium: Application M2-J Poster Platform: Co-chairs: Hiba Baroud, Roshi Nateghi Property Risk Analysis Supply Chain: Incidence of Systematic Reviews in Risk Interdisciplinary Risk Chair: Robert Waller and Control Measures Assessment: Case Studies, Communication about Food 10:30 AM M2-F.1 Co-chairs: Moez Sanaa, Amir Mokhtari Successes and Challenges and the Environment Why the Well Runs Dry: Assessing 10:30 AM M2-G.1 from Different Domains Chair: William Hallman Global Trends in Groundwater Stress Risk Analysis Targeted to Each and 10:30 AM M2-H.1 Chair: Katya Tsaioun Bruss BC, Nateghi R*, Zaitchik B Every Manager’s Perspective Listeria Monocytogenes in Ready-to-eat 10:30 AM M2-J.1 Purdue University Waller RR (RTE) Foods and The Risk for Human 10:30 AM M2-I.1 Who is Afraid of Tampering with Protect Heritage Health in the European Union (EU) Introduction to Systematic Reviews: Nature? Individual Differences in (Dis) 10:50 AM M2-F.2 Sanaa M Methods and Concepts Developed comfort with Altering the Natural World Water-Energy Nexus: Impact on 10:50 AM M2-G.2 Anses in Clinical Medicine and Their Raimi KT, Wolske KS, Hart PS, Campbell- Electrical Energy Conversion and Evaluation of Environmental Risks and Applicability to Other Domains Arvai V* Mitigation by Smart Water Resources Environmental Costs at Yale Peabody 10:50 AM M2-H.2 Tsaioun K University of Michigan, University of Management Museum of Natural History Listeria Incidence and Exposure: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Chicago Gjorgiev B, Sansavini G* Bratasz LB, White TW, Sease CS, Uthrup Assessing the Impacts of Changing US Public Health ETH Zürich NU, Butts SB, Boardmann RB, Simon SS Population Demographics and Differing 10:30 AM M2-J.2 Yale University Consumption Patterns Among Groups 10:50 AM M2-I.2 Overcoming Local Resistance to 11:10 AM M2-F.3 at Higher Risk for Listeriosis Development and Refinement Proposed US Government Projects: A Tsunamis, Sea Walls, and Memory - 11:10 AM M2-G.3 Pohl AM, Gaveleck AY, Spungen JH, of a Framework for Quantitative Case Study in Dredging Harbors Vulnerability in Coastal Communities Chemical Deterioration and Physical Pouillot R, Van Doren JM Consideration of Study Quality Poinsatte-Jones K, Trump B Logan TM, Bricker JD, Guikema SD Failure – Risk-Informed Archive Facility US Food and Drug Administration and Relevance in the Evaluation U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Risk and University of Michigan, TU Delft Planning of mechanistic Data Based on Key Decision Sciences Focus Area Swiatkowska B, Czop J, Jedrychowski 11:10 AM M2-H.3 Characteristics of Carcinogens 11:30 AM M2-F.4 M, Klosowska A, Okragla D, Skoczen- A Novel Agent-based Model of Wikoff DS,Rager JE, Harvey S, Haws L, 10:30 AM M2-J.3 Extreme Precipitation Analysis and Rapala £, Bratasz £ Listeria spp . Dynamics in a Food Chappell G, Borghoff S Examining Cognitive and Affective Prediction for a Changing Climate National Museum in Krakow, Yale Processing Facility for Assessment of ToxStrategies Factors Associated with Support for Hu H, Ayyub BM University Environmental Monitoring Programs Pollution Policies in the Chesapeake University of Maryland, College Park Zoellner C, Jennings R, Wiedmann M, 11:10 AM M2-I.3 Bay Watershed: Identifying Promising 11:30 AM M2-G.4 Ivanek R Application of Systematic Review: An Messaging Strategies Sponsored by: Preparedness and Response in Cornell University Industry Perspective Lu H, Schuldt JP, Niederdeppe J Collections Emergencies (PRICE) – The Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Lewis RJ, Freeman J Cornell University Smithsonian’s Collections Emergency 11:30 AM M2-H.4 Group ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Team Interagency Listeria Monocytogenes 10:30 AM M2-J.4 Snell S Market Basket Survey – Results and 11:30 AM M2-I.4 The Role of Trust and Perceived Smithsonian Institution Critical Considerations for Developing Systematic Review of Factors Affecting Similarity in Psychological Reactance Surveys to Support Quantitative Risk the Onset and Progression of Against Regulatory Wildlife Policy 11:50 AM M2-G.5 Assessments Neurological Disease Song H, McComas KA, Schuler KL Analyzing Risk for Cultural Property Chen Y, Pouillot R, Luchansky JB, Porto- Krewski D Cornell University during Armed Conflict Fett ACS, Catlin M, Kause J, Gallagher D, University of Ottawa Wegener CA Van Doren JM, Lindsay JA, Dennis S Smithsonian Institution FDA Center for Food Safety and Applied 11:50 AM M2-I.5 Nutrition, USDA Agricultural Research Challenges in Implementing Systematic Sponsored by: Service, Virginia Tech, USDA Food Safety Review in TSCA Risk Evaluations Applied Risk Management Specialty and Inspection Service Camacho-Ramos I Group U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Sponsored by: Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group Sponsored by: Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group

24 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

continued Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C 10:30 AM M2-J.5 M2-K Risk Communication M3-A Symposium: Modeling the M3-B Roundtable: Foundations M3-C Health Risk & Frankenfood or Farm Fresh? Measuring in Public Health and Economic Aspects of Climate of Safety Science - Perspectives Decision Analysis Support for Aquaculture among U .S . Medical Contexts Change: A Critical Review of Across Risk, Safety and Resilience Chair: Daniele Wikoff Consumers Chair: Graham Dixon the State of the Science Chair: Kenneth Pettersen Gould 1:30 PM M3-C.1 Rickard LN, Noblet CL Chair: Elisabeth Gilmore 10:30 AM M2-K.1 Safety as a particular science can be claimed Analysis of Hazard Evaluation Data University of Maine to have emerged to match social ambitions Mapping the Media and Risk 1:30 PM M3-A.1 for increased safety and security -- developing, and the Development of a Risk- 10:30 AM M2-J.6 Landscape Around Zika: Where Do An Assessment of Opportunities experimenting and testing practical methods, Based Inspections Schedule for the People Get Information About Risk? to Improve the Climate Damage tools and models with the aim of understanding Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi Information Asymmetry: The Heuristic and managing unwanted actions or events . Function of Nano-food Labels Wirz CD, Johnson BB Functions in the DICE, FUND, and PAGE Although established as a particular domain of Akl S, Turner MB, Rady AS, Al Ashram M, Cummings CL University of Wisconsin-Madison, Integrated Assessment Models . knowledge, the status of safety science is in many Kalimuthu , Lloyd JM, Beauchamp C, Al ways contested . This can be at least partly due to Hajer K, Al Waheebi A, Lillys T* Nanyang Technological University, Decision Research Rennert KJ, Wichman C its hybrid character, being constituted by a mix of Research Triangle Institute and Singapore Resources for the Future researchers coming from different scientific tradi- 10:50 AM M2-K.2 tions, and to its relatively young age as a scientific Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi 10:30 AM M2-J.7 US Public Opinion About Insecticide 1:50 PM M3-A.2 community . Moreover, safety science has been Spraying in the Context of Zika Virus Quantifying Economic Risks questioned over the last two decades in different 1:50 PM M3-C.2 Framing, Social Stigma and Scientific ways and from different perspectives, for being, Controversy: Exploring Effect and Lull RB, Hallman WK, Brossard D, from Climate Change: Research Application of Systematic Review for example, incoherent in its approach to risk, in the Evaluation of Caffeine Safety: Mechanism of Question Wording Jamieson KH Opportunities and Challenges showing a disregard of safety as a social construct, about Genetically Modified Food California State University, Fresno, Diaz D emphasising accident causes rather than resil- Potential Adverse Effects of Caffeine ience and in controversies over the role of culture Consumption in Healthy Adults, Rutgers University, University of Electric Power Research Institute Jia H, Schuldt J, Zhou S, Deng L in contributing to human action . In addition to Pregnant Women, Adolescents, and Cornell University Wisconsin-Madison, University of their application to safety science in particular, Pennsylvania 2:10 PM M3-A.3 such questions are also related to fundamental Children 10:30 AM M2-J.8 Current Approaches to Assessing Risks issues within disciplines and the philosophy of Wikoff DW,Welsh BT, Henderson R, science, such as the possibility for modelling Responsibility, Recalls, and 11:10 AM M2-K.4 of Sea-level Rise Brorby G, Britt J, Myers E, Goldberger J, Ethics and Risk in Human Gene social systems, the workings of the human mind, Lieberman HR, O’Brien C, Doepker C Reputations of Organizations: Kopp RE and the objective existence of the phenomenon of Theory-Based Experimental Studies Editing: How Type and Use of Rutgers University culture . As for risk analysis, in spite of the seeming ToxStrategies to Improve Food Safety Crisis Gene Editing Impacts Public Risk maturity of its practices the methodology as a whole still struggles with establishing a solid 2:10 PM M3-C.3 Communication Perceptions 2:30 PM M3-A.4 scientific foundation. Evaluating the Capability of Health Wu F, Hallman WK Howell EL, Kohl P, Scheufele DA, Xenos Projecting Violence and Unrest Under MA, Brossard D Climate Change The aim of the symposium is to continue Systems with Multi-criteria Decision Rutgers University previous discussions held at the SRA-E and Analysis University of Wisconsin-Madison Gilmore EA WOS conferences in Europe, bringing in Montibeller G, Del Rio Vilas V, Carreras A, Sponsored by: Clark University additional perspectives from North America and 11:30 AM M2-K.6 Franco LA Risk Communication Specialty Group beyond . Can the growing initiative within SRA Effective Communication – The on the foundations of risk be combined with Loughborough University Sponsored by: foundational issues of safety science? How can Fourth Factor in Physician-Patient Economics and Benefits Analysis we move forward with a dialogue to establish 2:30 PM M3-C.4 Relationship (PPR) in Cancer Specialty Group and Society for and strengthen the links between the two? The Overview and Demonstration of Treatment Benefit-Cost Analysis symposium addresses fundamental concepts, Khan KJ, Begum N principles, goals, and methods for these fields. USEPA’s Risk-Informed Materials Work on foundational issues contributes to the Management (RIMM) Tool System University of Vienna development, of ways to conceptualize, assess, describe, manage, govern, and communicate Babendreier JE, Taylor T Sponsored by: risks and safety . U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Risk Communication Specialty Group Panelists: Nick Pidgeon, Cardiff University; Paul Schulman, Sponsored by: Mills College; Kathleen Sutcliffe, Johns Hopkins Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Business School; David Woods, Ohio State Group University Sponsored by: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Specialty Group 2017 Final Program 25 Monday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:10 PM 1:30 PM – 2:30 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM Salon D Salon E Salon FG Salon H Salon J M3-D Symposium: M3-E Symposium: Game Theory, M3-F Symposium: The Interface M3-G Applied Risk M3-H Evaluating the Impact Commercializing Nanoscale Decision Analysis for Homeland Between Infrastructure Management: Disruptive of Risk Factors and Control Materials: Occupational Safety and Security and Disaster Management and Societal Resilience Technologies, AI and Cyber Measures: From Drinking Health through Risk Assessment Chair: Bairong Wang Chair: Allison Reilly Chair: Dan Hudson Water to Produce and Nuts and Risk Management Co-chairs: Jane Van Doren, Hao Pang 1:30 PM M3-E.1 1:30 PM M3-F.1 1:30 PM M3-G.1 Co-chairs: Debra Kaden, James Ede A Signal Detection Model and Analysis Modeling Dynamic Vulnerability and Disruptive Technologies and Physical 1:30 PM M3-H.1 1:30 PM M3-D.1 of Risk-Based Threat Assessment Risk at the Community Level with Security - Good, Bad, or Indifferent? Risk of Pre-Harvest Microbiological Occupational Safety and Health of John RS Agent-Based Modeling Canjar HA Contamination in Tomatoes: Effects Nanoscale Materials University of Southern California Zhai C, Guikema SD, Reilly AC of Meteorological, Farm Management, 1:50 PM M3-G.2 Howard J University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and Environmental Factors 1:50 PM M3-E.2 New Game, New Rules: Responding to US Government Pang H, Pradhan AK The Hurricane Decision Simulator and 1:50 PM M3-F.2 Disruptive Trends in Financial Services University of Maryland 1:50 PM M3-D.2 Its Impact on Decision Making Strengthening Infrastructure Resilience Hall IS An EH&S Approach for MacKenzie CA, Regnier E, Hetherington through Insurance and Economic University of Northampton 1:50 PM M3-H.2 Commercialization of Novel Forms of S, Prisacari A Incentives The Impact of a Microbial Reduction Nanocellulose Iowa State University Tonn GL, Czajkowski JR, Kunreuther HC 2:10 PM M3-G.4 Treatment on the Risk of Human Nelson K Wharton Risk Management Center Multidisciplinary Risk Management in Salmonellosis from the Consumption 2:10 PM M3-E.3 Cybersecurity: Course Development American Process of Almonds and Pecans in the United Estimating Effectiveness of Investment, 2:10 PM M3-F.3 Tatar U, Keskin OF, Poyraz OI, Pinto CA, States: A Comparison 2:10 PM M3-D.3 Optimal Resource Allocation, and Seismic Changes for Financing the Kucukkaya G Santillana Farakos SM, Pouillot R, Practical Considerations for the Predictive Risk Analytics for Fire FEMA Public Assistance Program but Old Dominion University Davidson GR, Johnson R, Spungen J, Son Assessment and Control of Exposures Protection Seismic Changes for Regional Risk? I, Anderson NA, Van Doren J to Engineered Nanomaterials in the Madasseri Payyappalli V, Behrendt A, Reilly AR, Tonn G, Ghaedi H, Guikema SD Sponsored by: Food and Drug Administration Secondary Industry Zhuang J University of Maryland Applied Risk Management Specialty Maberti S University at Buffalo, The State Group 2:10 PM M3-H.3 2:30 PM M3-F.4 ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc. University of New York An Advanced Legionellosis Risk Converting Vulnerable Landscapes to Model Incorporating Epidemiological 2:30 PM M3-D.4 2:30 PM M3-E.4 Resilient Community Assets Evidence of Disease Burden Method Development for Measuring Rumor Response, Debunking Nelson KS, Camp JS* Weir MH, Mraz AL, Mitchell J and Assessing Exposure to Response, and Decision Makings of Vanderbilt University The Ohio State University Nanomaterials in the Workplace Misinformed Twitter Users During Shatkin JA, Foster EJ, Peters TF Disasters 2:50 PM M3-F.5 2:30 PM M3-H.4 Vireo Advisors, LLC Wang B, Zhuang J Community Resilience: Establishment Development of a Mathematical Model University at Buffalo, SUNY of Foundational Indicators and for the Influence of Relative Humidity Sponsored by: Variables for Use in an Integrated on the Survival of Salmonella on Emerging Nanaoscale Materials Sponsored by: Dynamic Assessment Framework Cucumbers and Occupational Health and Safety Security and Defense and Decision Gillespie-Marthaler L, Nelson KS, Baroud Jung J, Schaffner DW Specialty Groups Analysis and Risk Specialty Groups H, Abkowitz M Rutgers University Vanderbilt University Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group

26 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A Salon B M3-I Symposium: From Sensors M3-J Roundtable: Applications M3-K All About Energy M4-A Benefits, Costs and Risks M4-B Roundtable: SRA Specialty to Risk Decisions: How Can of Automation, Computational, Chair: Amanda Boyd for Health Environment Groups: The Profession, The We Use Sensor and Personal and Informatic Tools to Chair: Deborah Aiken Practitioners, The Research 1:30 PM M3-K.2 Monitoring Data to Better Operationalize Human Health Co-chairs: Patricia Nance, A Study of Japanese people’s 3:30 PM M4-A.1 Inform our Risk Assessment Risk Assessments at EPA Frederic Bouder Awareness about Radiation after the and Regulatory Decisions? Controlling Diesel Emissions in Mexico Chair: Ingrid Druwe, J Allen Davis Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power City: A Benefit-cost Analysis Over the years SRA members have Chair: Sabine Lange The challenges facing the risk assessment Plant Accident Evans JS, Hammitt JK*, Rojas-Bracho L established a growing number of 1:30 PM M3-I.1 community in the 21st century, especially the Oiso S Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, specialty groups, which cover most need to screen large databases of toxicological aspects of risk analysis from various Interpreting and Communicating Institute of Nuclear Safety System Toulouse School of Economics information in order to provide relevant and facets of risk assessment down to Short-Term Sensor Data timely human health risk assessments to 1:50 PM M3-K.3 3:50 PM M4-A.2 management, communication and Jenkins S, Mannshardt E, Stone S, interested stakeholders, represent a unique Crisis Events, Risk Communities, and Uncertainty Analysis in RIAs for policy stages . A number of questions Keating M, Brown J, Long T opportunity to advance the field given the advent of multiple technologies and the the Evolution of Public Support for Transportation Safety and Air Pollution may be asked: do new issues United States Environmental Protection evolution of systematic review methods . When Nuclear Energy in the United States Regulations require new specialty groups to be Agency conducting assessments on chemicals with Gupta K, Nowlin M, Ripberger J, Jenkins- Aiken D, Good DH*, Krutilla K established? And how effective are large databases, it can be difficult to efficiently existing Specialty groups? Can we 1:50 PM M3-I.2 screen tens of thousands of references to Smith H, Silva C Department of Transportation, Indiana identify the most relevant, high quality studies University of Oklahoma University learn from other promising initiatives? Understanding the Ambient - Personal Should plans be made to make PM2 .5 Correlation: Integrating from to use. And once those references are identified, effectively and transparently managing the 2:10 PM M3-K.7 specialty groups even more attractive Across Different Studies 4:10 PM M4-A.3 data to support hazard identification and dose- Symbolic Information on Naturalness Monetizing Benefits of Preventing and relevant? This panel discussion Jones L, Schaefer H, Lange S response analyses can prove to be a formidable and Its Biasing Effect on the Evaluation Global Deaths from Foodborne Illness will focus on substance issues of risk Texas Commission on Environmental task . In response to this challenge, the U .S . EPA’s National Center for Environmental Assessment of Energy Technologies and Hoffmann S analysis, compare experiences – what Quality we have in common and what are (NCEA) is leading efforts to develop and apply Environmental Hazards: The Case of USDA Economic Research Service advancements in data science, machine the differences, as well stimulate 2:10 PM M3-I.3 Fracking learning, automation of systematic review, data 4:30 PM M4-A.4 innovative thinking to explore ways of Direct Reading and Sensor integration, and dose response modeling in Sütterlin B, Siegrist M ETH Zürich LNT and Economic Analysis making this central feature of SRA even Technologies: Opportunities order to efficiently produce human health risk more effective. to Advance Occupational Risk assessments in a timely fashion that meet the Williams RA, Yamoun DY 2:30 PM M3-K.9 Management needs of our stakeholders . The objective of this George Mason University Panelists: Roundtable is to bring together a diverse group Risk Perceptions of Smart Meters: Hoover MD, Snawder JE of experts at the forefront of risk assessment Bailey A, Baroud H, Chiu W, Crowther Examining the Role of Privacy Sponsored by: K, Guidotti T, Guikema S, Hristozov National Institute for Occupational science and provide a platform for discussing Concerns, Technological Readiness, Safety and Health strategies for making systematic review feasible Economics and Benefits Analysis D, Jessup A, Lathrop, J, Schweizer, V, in human health assessments, including the and Technological Norms Specialty Group and Society for Stevens, Y, Wilkins, A 2:30 PM M3-I.4 concept of fit-for-purpose evaluations and Joo J, Hmielowski J, Boyd A Benefit-Cost Analysis use of specialized software (SWIFT, HAWC) to Washington State University Pollution Gets Personal: Reporting increase productivity and improve data-content Personal Exposure to Environmental management . These tools and methods will Chemicals when Health Implications improve data sharing with stakeholders, other Sponsored by: are Uncertain . Federal and State agencies and promote the Risk Communication Specialty Group integration of new approach methods (NAM) Brody JG, Boronow KE, Susmann H, into human health risk assessment . Ohayon JL, Morello-Forsch RA, Brown P, Rudel RA Panelists: Silent Spring Institute, Northeastern Kris Thayer, Andy Shapiro, Iris Camacho, Jason University, University of California, Lambert, Samantha Jones, Xabier Arzuaga Berkeley Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Dose-Response, Exposure Assessment, Exposure Assessment and Occupational Decision Analysis and Risk, and Health and Safety Specialty Groups Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Groups 2017 Final Program 27 Monday

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM Salon C Salon D Salon E Salon FG Salon H M4-C Symposium: The Practice M4-D Symposium: Global M4-E Symposium: SETAC and SRA M4-F Infrastructure Resilience M4-G Symposium: Foundational and Research of Resilience Catastrophic Risk Assessment, Joint Symposium on Bridging Human Chair: Stanley Levinson Issues in Risk Analysis I Chair: Igor Linkov Policy and Communication and Ecological Risk Assessment Chair: Jon T. Selvik 3:30 PM M4-F.1 Chair: Seth Baum Co-chairs: Patricia Nance, Charles Menzie 3:30 PM M4-C.1 Redesigning Resilient Infrastructure 3:30 PM M4-G.1 Robustness and Resilience of Large- 3:30 PM M4-D.1 3:30 PM M4-E.1 Research Data Analytics, Risk Analysis, and Scale Command and Control Networks Towards Integrated, Comprehensive One Health: Opportunities for SRA and Seager TP Uncertainty Ganin A, Kitsak M, Eisenberg DA, Assessment of Global Catastrophic SETAC Leadership and Cooperation to Arizona State University Guikema SD, Flage R Alderson DL, Linkov I Risks to Inform Risk Reduction Improve the Health of People, Animals University of Michigan University of Virginia, U.S. Army Engineer Barrett AM and the Environment 3:50 PM M4-F.3 Research and Development Center, GCR Institute, ABS Consulting Augspurger T, Basu N Emergent and Future Conditions 3:50 PM M4-G.2 Northeastern University, Arizona State U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, McGill Disrupting PERT/CPM Schedule How to Address Uncertainty in security University, Naval Postgraduate School 3:50 PM M4-D.2 University, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue Analysis of Infrastructure Systems Risk Management Barriers to Proactive Population Collier ZA, Lambert JH Jore SH 3:50 PM M4-C.2 Relocation in Preparation for Coastal 3:50 PM M4-E.2 University of Virginia University of Stavanger, Norway Can You Be Smart and Resilient at the Flooding Integration of Emerging Science into Same Time? Bier VM Characterizing Toxicity for Ecological & 4:10 PM M4-F.4 4:10 PM M4-G.3 Marchese DC, Linkov I University of Wisconsin-Madison Human Health Infrastructure Planning Under climate Risk assessment Assumptions – U.S. Army Engineer Research and Johnson MJ, Braydich-Stolle L Change – Bridging Robustness and Uncertainty and Bias Development Center 4:10 PM M4-D.3 US Army Public Health Center, US Air Probabilistic Approaches Flage R Evaluating the Preparedness of the U .S . Force Research Laboratory Shortridge JE, Zaitchik BF University of Stavanger 4:10 PM M4-C.3 Emergency Management System for Virginia Tech Practical Application of the Managing Global Catastrophic Risk 4:10 PM M4-E.3 4:30 PM M4-G.4 SmartResilience Methodology for Brown JT Integration of Ecological Risk 4:30 PM M4-F.5 Quick Bayes Offers Performance Assessing Resilience of Multiple Critical Congressional Research Service Assessment with the Assessment of Current Efforts to Establish a Common Guarantees and Easy Risk Infrastructures Risk to Human Health and Well-being Methodology and Common Database Communication Øien K, Jovanović AS 4:30 PM M4-D.4 within a Bayesian Network Framework for the Resilience Indicator Based Ferson S, O’Rawe J EU-VRi, Germany Communicating Risk Assessments for as Applied to the Salish Sea . Assessment University of Liverpool, Applied Policymaking Landis WG, Harris MJ Jovanović AS, Øien K Biomathematics 4:30 PM M4-C.4 Ritterson R Western Washington University, EU-VRi, Steinbeis Advanced Risk Integrating Resilience Across the Gryphon Scientific, LLC Whatcom Conservation District Technologies, Germany 4:50 PM M4-G.5 Organization Taking the Reins: How Decision-Makers Wood MD, Blue S, Cato C, Wells E, Zemba Sponsored by: 4:30 PM M4-E.4 Sponsored by: Can Stop being Hijacked by Uncertainty V, Linkov I Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty The Development and application of Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Finkel AM, Gray GM* U.S. Army Engineer Research and Group Weight-of-evidence Methodologies for Group Univ. of Pennsylvania, Univ. of Michigan, Development Center, U.S. Army Institute Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: George Washington Univ. for Behavioral and Social Sciences Common Pathways over Uneven Terrain Menzie C, Kashuba R Sponsored by: 4:50 PM M4-C.5 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Perspectives on Resilience Scholarship Chemistry (SETAC) Specialty Group and Research Palma-Oliveira J 4:50 PM M4-E.5 University of Lisbon Communicating Risk Sciences Related to Human and Ecological Risks Sponsored by: Nance P Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty University of Cincinnati Group Sponsored by: Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Group 28 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 M4-H Applied Risk Management: M4-I Symposium: Opportunistic M4-J Poster Platform: Applications of Automation, M4-K Climate Change Managing Four Completely Pathogens in Premise Plumbing Computational, and Informatic Tools to Operationalize Human Communication I Different Risks: Mutagenic, Chair: Kerry Hamilton Health Risk Assessments at EPA – the Genius Studio Chair: Sol Hart Imparities, Civil Aviation, Chair: Ingrid Druwe, J Allen Davis Radon and Water Supply 3:30 PM M4-I.1 3:30 PM M4-K.1 Opportunistic Pathogen Dose-response 3:30 PM M4-J.1 3:30 PM M4-J.6 The Causal Effect of Flood Experience Chair: TBD Models SWIFT-Review: A Text-Mining The EPA Comptox Chemistry on Climate Engagement: Evidence from 3:30 PM M4-H.1 Mitchell JM, Dean KJ*, Tamrakar SB, Workbench for Systematic Review Dashboard: A Web-based Data Search Requests for Green Electricity in Mutagenic Impurities and Human Huang Y, Rose J Howard BE, Tandon A, Phillips J, Shah R Integration Hub and Its Applications to Germany Pharmaceuticals: A Discussion of ICH Michigan State University Sciome, LLC Supporting Risk Assessment Osberghaus D, Demski C* M7 and Negligible Risk Williams AJ, Shah I, Patlewicz G, Centre for European Economic Research, 3:50 PM M4-I.2 Cragin DW, Galloway SM, Hollick ND 3:30 PM M4-J.2 Wambaugh J, Grulke C, Edwards J, Cardiff University Non-consumptive Drinking Water Use Merck & Co., Peking University SWIFT-Active Screener: Reducing Richard A, Judson R and Microbial Risk – Do We Need a Safe Literature Screening Effort Through Environmental Protection Agency 3:50 PM M4-K.2 3:50 PM M4-H.3 Breathing Water Act? Machine Learning for Systematic Integrating the Socio-Ecological Reducing Early Life Exposure to Radon: Bartrand TB, Carotenuto AC Howard BE, Miller K, Phillips J, Tandon A, 3:30 PM M4-J.7 Perspective in Predicting Willingness A Challenge for Childcare Facilities ESPRI Institute Phadke D, Mav D, Shah R* DRAGON ONLINE: Tool for Systematic to Take Actions to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts: A Case for Michigan’s Nicol AM Sciome, LLC Literature Review 4:10 PM M4-I.3 Huron River Watershed Simon Fraser University Bornstein K, Williams A, Hobbie K, Reverse QMRA for Opportunistic 3:30 PM M4-J.3 Cawley M, Feiler T, Henning C, Turley A Tsai J, Cheng C, Esselman R 4:10 PM M4-H.4 Pathogens in Premise Plumbing HAWC (Health Assessment Workspace ICF Northern Arizona University Nontraditional Irrigation Water: Hamilton KA, Gurian PL Collaborative): A Modular, Web-based Understanding Farmers’ Needs and Drexel University Interface to Facilitate Development 3:30 PM M4-J.8 4:10 PM M4-K.3 Risk Perceptions of Human Health Assessments of DoCTER: Text Analytics to Prioritize Risk Perceptions of Enhanced 4:30 PM M4-I.4 Weathering as a Biological Negative Goldstein RER, Suri MR, Dery JL, Brassill Chemicals Literature Search Results for Review Emissions Option NA, Pee DG, Goeringer LP, Rock CM Meta-Analysis of Legionella Interactions Shapiro AJ, Addington JA, Rooney AA, Hobbie K, Cawley M, Turley A, Varghese A with Protozoa and Human Macrophage University of Maryland Boyd WA ICF Pidgeon NF, Spence E Mraz AL, Weir MH US National Toxicology Program Understanding Risk Research Group, 3:30 PM M4-J.9 Sponsored by: The Ohio State University Cardiff University 3:30 PM M4-J.4 Applied Risk Management Specialty Systematic Review Automation 4:50 PM M4-I.5 4:30 PM M4-K.5 Group HERO: Tools for Systematic Review to Technologies: Available Tools and Best Water Chemistry and Micriology Support U .S . EPA Science Assessments Practices Denying Denialism: Uncovering the Changes as Plumbing Ages Jones RM, Thacker S O’Blenis PA, Stefanison I Methods and Institutions of Climate Whelton AJ, Salehi M, Abouali M, Wang United States Environmental Protection Evidence Partners Inc Change Denial M, Zhou Z, Nejadhashemi AP, Mitchell J, Agency Frey HC Caskey S Sponsored by: North Carolina State University Purdue University 3:30 PM M4-J.5 Dose-Response, Exposure Assessment, EPA’s Benchmark Dose Software and Decision Analysis and Risk, and 4:50 PM M3-K.6 Sponsored by: Related Dose-Response Models and Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Decomposing the Public’s Fear of Dose Response and Microbial Risk Methods Groups Nuclear Power Analysis Specialty Groups Davis JA, Gift J Vaishnav P, Abdulla A US Environmental Protection Agency Carnegie Mellon University

Sponsored by: Risk Communication Specialty Group

2017 Final Program 29 Monday

6:00 PM – 8:00 PM Poster Reception Salons III-VI

Risk, Policy and Law P. 7 Developing the Probability P.13 YPLL: A Comprehensive P.18 A TOPSIS-based Model P.26 A Probabilistic Risk Model for Prediction Model for the Carcinogenic Quantitative Tool to Evaluate Worker for Performance Appraisal of Risk Contaminated Site Management P. 1 Identification of Potential potency by Using the Bayesian Method Risk Under Green and Sustainable Management System Bailey A, Peterson J Biological Hazards in Groundwater to Support Hazard Assessment Under Remediation Sheikh Hassani N SLR International Corporation Underlying Cemeteries and Graveyards Japan’s Chemical Substances Control Greenberg GI, Beck BD Akdeniz University Leung ACW, Minnery JG, Chung R Law Gradient P.27 Implications of Anthropogenic Public Health Ontario Yamaguchi H, Yamada T, Hirose A P.20 Primary Voting Risk Climate Change on Radioactive Waste National Institute of Health Sciences P.14 Quantitative Microbial Risk Management Disposal in the United States P. 2 Climate Change Vulnerability, Analysis (QRMA) on Risk’s Estimative Gurian PL Lee RC, Crowe B, Duffy P,Sully M, Levitt Risk Assessment and Adaptation P. 8 The IRGC Approach to Risk and Associated with Infectious Waste in Drexel University D, Black P Scenario Development for Resilience Assessment – The IRGC Blood Centers Neptune and Company, Inc. Municipalities Resource Guide on Resilience Gois LHB, Monteiro LKS*, Jorquera O, P.21 Moral Hazard in Loss Reduction Thorne ST, Kovacs DK, Austin LA, Qiu X, Florin MV, Linkov I, Trump B Cohim E, Kiperstock A and the State Dependent Utility P.28 Assessing Consumer Product Horb E, Martyn N, Hay A IRGC, EPFL Universidade Federal da Bahia Hong J, Seog S* Manufacturers’ Tradeoffs Among Decision Partners, Inc., Novus Seoul National University Design Criteria in Chemical Substitution Environmental, RiskLogik, Southern Reliability as a Method for Risk Decisions Decision Analysis and Risk P.15 Harbour Assessment in Hemovigilance P.22 A Single Changepoint Rao V, Francis R, Tanir J P. 9 State of Knowledge and Data Calazans B, Pessoa RWS, Coutinho IBS*, Software Reliability Growth Model The George Washington University, P. 3 Development of Methodology Gaps Regarding the Potential for Oliveira-Esquerre KPR, Kiperstok A with Heterogeneous Fault Detection Human and Environmental Sciences for Finding Underestimated Chemical Cyanide Poisoning from Consumption Federal University of Bahia - UFBA Processes Institute Substances for Health Risk Based on of Apricot Kernels in the United States Nagaraju V, Fiondella L, Wandji T Human Kinetic Adjustment Factor Savidge MJ, Hsu LC, Smegal DC P.16 Urban Heat Projections in a University of Massachusetts Dartmouth P.30 An Algorithmic Adversarial Risk Analyzed by QPPR-PBPK Model Changing Climate: Washington D .C . as Analysis Aproach for Bi-agent Influence Sato N, Kojima N, Tokai A U.S. Food and Drug Administration a Case Study P.23 Entropy for Quantifying Diagrams Osaka University P.10 Understanding the Causes and Zhang Y, Ayyub BM Uncertainty and Risk in Economic González-Ortega J, Ríos Insua D Consequences of Harms to Residents Center for Technology and Systems Disparity ICMAT P. 5 Risk-based National Standards of Retirement Homes in Ontario, Management, University of Maryland, Mishra S, Ayyub B, Zhang Y of the Republic of China (CNS) on Canada College Park University of Maryland College Park, P.33 Untangling the Mystery of Chemical Level in Consumer Products: Assessing Snow Avalanche Hazard - A A Suggested Framework Mangalam S, Pham P, Castellino A*, International Finance Corporation Salamati F P.17 International Activities Related Conceptual Model Chuang YC, Huang SZ, Wu C, Wu KY PRISM Institute to Development of Guidance on P.24 Practical Multi-Criteria Haegeli P, Statham G, Birkeland KW, National Taiwan University Human Intrusion in the Context of Decision Analysis with an Alternatives Greene E P.12 Qualitative Risk Assessment for Disposal of Radioactive Waste Assessment Framework Simon Fraser University, Parks Canada P. 6 Awareness-Based Risk Drinking Water Standards Using TTC Barr C, Pinkston K*, Seitz R, Bailey L, Howard B, Kenney M, Gerst M, Giraud R Agency, USFS National Avalanche Management: Seeing, Transforming, Approach Guskov A, McKenney C American Chemistry Council Center, Colorado Avalanche Information and Unleashing Organizational United States Nuclear Regulatory Center Capacity Hughes B, Cox K, Bhat V NSF International Commission, Savannah River National P.25 Inspections Outcomes and Redinger CF Laboratories, Radioactive Waste Their Association with Contract P.34 Simulation of Reconstruction The Institute for Advanced Risk Management Limited, UK, International Manufacturing and Drug Application of the Affected Area of 2011 Great East Management Atomic Energy Agency Submissions Earthquake Liu W, Schick A, Kazemi R Maeda Y, Masuda R US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Shizuoka University

30 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

P.35 Developing a Decision P.42 Implications of Recent Changes P.47 A Web-based Bayesian Dose- P.54 Estimate of IQ loss in Infants Due P.62 Can Scanner Food Purchase Framework for Outer Continental Shelf to the Toxicity of 1,4-Dioxane on the Response Assessment System to Exposure to Arsenic in Infant Cereals Data Help Us Identify Sources of Sand Resource Management Derivation of Regulatory Criteria Shao K, Shapiro A Lynch MT, Chiger A, Houlihan J Foodborne Illness? Bates ME, Fox-Lent C, Corr J, Cialone M, Sager SL, Forsberg ND, Prucha C, Bull L Indiana University Abt Associates Inc., Healthy Babies Ashton L, Berck P, Cole D, Hoffmann S*, Knorr P ARCADIS U.S., Inc., Waste Management Bright Futures Todd J US Army Corps of Engineers P.48 Defining Priors for Bayesian University of Wisconsin - Madison, Dichotomous Dose-Response Analysis Association with Using Statins Dose-Response: Tools to P.55 University of California, USDA Animal Probability Distortion is an and the Risk of New Diagnosis Diabetes P.36 Operationalize Human Health Risk Allen BC, Blessinger TD Health Inspection Service, USDA Optimal Response to Imprecise Mellitus in Transient Ischemic Attack Assessment U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Economic Research Service Probabilities Independent Consultant Patients Johnson KL, Luhmann CC P.43 Use of DistillerSR to Facilitate Ho WC, Yin MC, Chu YR, Peng YH, Tsan YT, Emerging Nanoscale Material Chen PC Stony Brook University Systematic Reviews Dose-Response: Predicting and Wilkins A, Thayer K Observing China Medical University P.63 Consumer Approval of P.37 Risk Evaluation in Peer Review Federal Government Nanomaterials in Food and Medicine of Grant Applications P.49 Applying in Vitro Toxicity Data to P.56 Statin Use and Temperature Hilgard J, Nucci ML, Hallman WK Gallo SA, Thompson L, Schmaling K, P.44 Validation and Application of a Inform Chemical Risk Assessment on Transient Ischemic Attacks Among Annenberg Public Policy Center, Diabetes Mellitus Patients Glisson S Text Mining Tool for Identification and Wheeler MW, Bailer JB, Whittaker C University of Pennsylvania, Illinois State Chang PH, Chou YJ, Yin MC, Chu YR, Tsan American Institute of Biological Sciences Categorization of Mechanistic Data National Institute for Occupational University, Rutgers University YT, Chan WC, Ho WC, Chen PC Related to the Key Characteristics of Safety and Health P.38 Evaluating Impacts to the DoD Carcinogens: Case Studies of a Problem China Medical University Engineering and Infrastructure Mission and the Defense Industrial Base Formulation Tool P.50 Estimating Chronic Toxicity from Chemical Regulation Under the Chappell G, Welsh B, Harvey S, Harris M, Values from Short Term Tox Tests: Ecological Risk Assessment P.65 Understanding the Growing Amended Toxic Substances Control Act Wikoff D Application to Chemical Substitution Costs for FEMA’s Public Assistance Vogel C, Rak A, Underwood P, Scanlon K, ToxStrategies, Inc. Decisions P.57 Environmental risk assessment Program: The Role of repeated Hazards Bandolin N, Esola S Kratchman J, Gray G in e-SCM and Institutional Knowledge by Noblis, Inc., U.S. Army Public Health P.45 Proposed Key Characteristics George Washington University Mohammadabbasi M, Sheikh Hassani N Applicants Command, DoD Defense Contract of Male Reproductive Toxicants as a Tehran University Ghaedi H, Reilly A Management Agency Industrial Analysis Method for Organizing and screening P.51 The Correlation Between Liver University of Maryland Group Mechanistic Evidence for Non-cancer Tumor Incidence and Early-stage Liver Economics and Benefits Analysis Outcomes Weight Change - An Analysis Using NTP P.66 Costs of Seismic Retrofits of Analysis of Consumers’ P.39 Arzuaga X, Yost E, Hotchkiss A, Beverly B, Data Existing Federal Buildings for Disaster Preference to Accidental and Chemical P.59 Minimizing Average Gibbons C Chen Q, Shao K Resilience Risk in a Purchase of a Domestic Procurement Unit Cost for Rotorcraft U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Indiana University Tradespace Exploration Halper SH, Saadat Y, Ayyub BM Appliance National Center for Environmental Bhattacharya S, Nagaraju V, Fiondella L, University of Maryland, College Park Tsunemi K, Kawamoto A, Ono K Assessment, National Institutes P.52 NMR-and MS-based Spero E, Ghoshal A National Institute of Advanced Industrial of Health, National Institute of Metabolomics to Investigate Molecular University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth P.67 Validating and Improving Science and Technology Environmental Health Sciences, Effects of Repeated Dose Exposure of Downscaling Methods of Global National Toxicology Program Maleic acid in Spague-Dawley Rats P.60 Economic Recession of Old Climate Model Results in Predicting Dose-Response: Chemical Specific Wu C, Chen CH, Chen HC, Liang HJ, Chen Extremes using Copula P.46 High-throughput Benchmark Industry Base in Northeast China Methods and Results ST, Lin WY, Wu KY, Chiang SY, Lin CY Hu H, Ayyub BM Dose Modeling Using a web-application Jiang HZ, Tiffany P National Taiwan University University of Maryland, College Park P.40 Methodology for Deriving and Python Interface Library for US EPA Northeast Yucai School, University of Benchmark Dose Modeling Software California Berkeley Provisional Advisory Levels (PALs) for P.53 Evaluating the Association P.68 Risk Perception on Hydrogen Chlorine (BMDS) between Alterations in Maternal P.61 Annualized Loss of Revenue Fueling Stations for Japanese Public Kobylewski-Saucier SE, Taylor ML, Shapiro AJ Thyroid Hormones and Adverse with Risk and Benefit Information US National Toxicology Program Caused by Cyber-attacks for Power Lipscomb JC Neurodevelopmental Outcomes Generation in Virginia Using Agent- Ono K, Tsunemi K Consolidated Safety Services Inc, Brown L, Reichle L, Klein R, Ginsberg G Based Modeling AIST WinTech LLC, US Environmental Abt Associates, Inc., Partnership for Poyraz OI, Keskin OK*, Pinto CA Protection Agency Pediatric and Environmental Health Old Dominion University

2017 Final Program 31 Monday

P.69 Reliability Analysis of a P.76 Resource Adequacy Risks to the P.83 Exposures to Styrene from Food P.91 Dietary Contaminant P.98 VOC Exposures from Use of Containment System, Transport and Bulk Power System in North America Packaging under CA Proposition 65 Exposure Estimates Should Reflect Aerosol Brake Cleaner Segregation of Effluents Murphy SJ, Apt J, Sowell F Mattuck R, Dubé EM, Liu X, Greenberg GI Risks to Sensitive Sub-Populations: Williams PRD, Fries M, Ovesen J, Maier A Santana SPB, Pessoa RWS, Oliveira- Carnegie Mellon University Gradient A Case Study of Lead and Hot E Risk Sciences, LLP, University of Esquerre KP Tea Consumption in Persons of Cincinnati College of Medicine Federal University of Bahia P.77 Assessing the Risk of Wind P.84 Senior Toxicologist, Human Reproductive Age Participating in Drought for Wind Farms Health Risk Assessment NHANES 2013-2014 P.99 Study on Risk Assessment of P.70 Resilience-oriented Analysis Schell K, Guikema SD, Pinson P Lopez TK Guerrette ZN, Fleischer JG, Whittaker MH Aloe-emodin for Taiwanese Population of Risk Management and Ontology- University of Michigan Tetra Tech ToxServices LLC Yen YT, Wu KY based Categorisation of Hazards in National Taiwan University Interdependent Infrastructure Systems P.78 Impact of Large-Magnitude P.85 Inorganic Arsenic Exposures P.93 Human Health Exposure and Yan J, Tang J Earthquakes on Structures in Deep Associated with Consumption of Infant Risk Assessment of Mercury in Camp 6, P.100 Comprehensive Multipathway Future Resilient Systems, Singapore-ETH Sedimentary Basins Rice Cereal Benguet, Philippines Risk Assessment of Chemicals Centre Marafi N,Berman J, Eberhard M Chiger A, Lynch MT, Houlihan J Diola MD, Resurreccion AC, Fujimura M Associated with Recycled University of Washington Abt Associates Inc., Healthy Babies University of the Philippines Diliman, Lemay JC, Peterson MK, Pacheco Shubin P.71 Traffic-Accidents Prediction Bright Futures National Institute for Minamata Disease SE, Prueitt RL Using Advanceds Machine Learning Exposure Assessment Gradient Techniques P.86 Risk Assessment of Exposure to P.94 State-of-the Art Consensus Aguiar Filho A, Soares ES*, Esquerre KP, on How to Evaluate Bioavailability in P.79 Public Health Implications Acrylamide from Baby Food in Taiwan P.101 Toxicological Risk Assessment Barreto TB, Pessoa RW Lai TR, Huang YC, Chuang YC, Wu KY, Contaminated Soil: Guidance from of Toluene and Formaldehyde in a of EPA’s UCMR3 Sampling of ITRC Federal University of Bahia Contaminants in Drinking Water Chiang SY Consumer Product Packaging Material Ries D, Durant K, Sorrentino C Greene CW, Suchomel AE China Medical University Fleischer JG, Whittaker MH P.72 Optimal Re-allocation of Cargo Interstate Technology and Regulatory Minnesota Department of Health ToxServices LLC Across Transportation Modes for the P.87 The Risk Assessment of Furan Council, State Government Recovery of Throughput During an P.80 Understanding Chemical Residue in Commercial Baby Formula P.102 Mapping the Emissions Inland Waterway Disruption in Taiwan for Infants and Children P.95 Impact of Industrial Activities Exposure Risk due to Hydraulic Emission from In-Situ Water Pipe Emissions on Mortality Rates in Chile: Amodeo DC, Francis R Repairs Under Age of Three Fracturing in Pennsylvania The George Washington University Huang YC, Wu KY An Ecological Study Banan Z, Gernand JM Teimouri M, Ra K, Conkling E, Boor B, Gutierrez VV, Fortt A* Howarter JA, Whelton AJ National Taiwan University Pennsylvania State University P.73 Measuring the Impact of Socio- Universidad Diego Portales, GreenRiver Purdue University Economic Status on Post-Hurricane P.88 Probabilistic Risk Assessment P.103 Application of an Excel-based Power Restoration of Fipronil in Vegetables and Fruits in P.96 Use of Air Dispersion Modeling Toxicokinetic (TK) Model for Deriving P.81 Determining the Health to Estimate Historical Community Kerr SE, Patwardhan A Protective Capability of Analytical Taiwan . Health-based Water Guidance for PFOS University of Maryland College Park Huang YC, Chuang YC, Wu KY, Chiang SY Exposure from Manufacturers of and PFOA . Detection Methods for Short Duration Asbestos-containing Products Exposures Department of Public Health, China Goeden HM, Greene CW, Jacobus JA P.74 Sensitivity Analysis on Resident Bare JL, Abramson MM, Barlow CA, Scott Lipscomb JC, Willison S, Parry E, Medical University Minnesota Department of Health Evacuation Behavior in the Integrated PK Chattopadhyay S, Snyder E Scenario-based Evacuation (ISE) P.89 Risk Assessment of Imported Cardno ChemRisk P.104 Dynamical Systems Modeling framework US EPA, National Homeland Security Research Center Canned Foods in Taiwan: Take of the Human Hypothalamic-Pituitary- Yang K, Davidson R, Nozick L, Brian B, Bisphenol A (BPA) as an Example P.97 Human Exposure to Nine Flame Thyroid Axis: Developing Quantitative Brian C, Wachtendorf T, Drasback K, Retardants in Indoor Environments P.82 Concentration of Cadmium in Hsiao IL, Wu KY Adverse Outcome Pathways for Thyroid DeYoung S, Kolar R, Yi W Spinach in U .S . Monitoring Data National Taiwan University Patterson J, Chaisson C, Diskin K, Parker Endocrine Disruptors University of Delaware A, Babich M, Biggs MB Nyambok EO, Hoffman-Pennesi D, Fueta PO, Zhang Q University of Cincinnati, formally Gavelek A, Briguglio S, Spungen J, Wirtz P.90 Risk Assessment of Arsenic in Emory University P.75 Modeling Homeowner Retrofit Toxicology Excellence for Risk MS Prescriptions of Traditional Chinese Behavior for Wind and Flood Assessment, The LifeLine Group, U.S. Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Medicine . Yahyazadeh Z, Davidson R, Trainor J, Consumer Product Safety Commission Education Horng RL, Chuang YC, Hsiao JL, Lin YT, Kruse J, Nozick L Wu KY, Chiang SY University of Maryland China Medical University

32 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Monday

P.106 Development of an Indoor P.113 Assessing Food Safety Risk of P.122 Integrating NIOSH Efforts to P.129 Current and Emerging Human P.137 Testing Procedures to Mitigate Consumer Exposure Assessment Tool Toxoplasma Gondii in Muscle Tissues of Protect Workers: Linking Cumulative Health Impacts Associated with Perceived Unfairness Perceptions (ICET) and Case Studies by Using ICET Naturally Infected Meat Animals in the Risk Assessment, Exposome, and Total Land-Based Pollution in Low and Associated with Research-Related Kajihara H, Higashino H United States . Worker Health® Middle-Income Countries (LMICs): Data Conflicts of Interest National Institute of Advanced Industrial Rani S, Dubey JP, Pradhan AK Dotson GS, Chosewood LC, Middendorf Gaps & Research Needs Besley JC, McCright AM, Zahry NR, Elliott Science and Technology (AIST) University of Maryland, USDA Animal PJ Williams PRD, Meiro-Lorenzo M, Puech NE, Martin JD, Kaminski NE Research Services CDC, National Institute for Occupational Fernandez MR, Kadeli LG Michigan State University P.107 Association Between Melanoma Safety and Health E Risk Sciences, LLP, World Bank and Glioma Risk: A Nationwide Study in P.116 Horizontal Gene Transfer P.138 Processing Risks: What Makes Taiwan Under Dynamic System Conditions Recommendations for Sieving the U .S . Public Attend to Information P.122.5 Risk Communication Chu YR, Yin MC, Chang PH, Luo RY, Ho for Understanding Dose-Response Soil and Dust Samples at Superfund about the 2016 Presidential Election vs . WC, Il’yasova D Relationships for Antibiotic Resistance Sites for Assessment of Incidental P.130 The Social and Economic Effects Climate Change China Medical University Risks Ingestion Via Dermal Adherence of Environmental Contamination and Yang J, Chu H Chabrelie AE, Zhang L, Bornhorst G, Stifelman M, Brown J, Lowney Y, Remediation University at Buffalo P.108 Air Quality Concerns Following Mitchell J Follansbee M*, Diamond G, Burgess M Zwickle A, Cox J, Hamm J, Zhuang J, Ocean Oil Spills Michigan State University, University of SRC, Inc. Upham B, Dearing J P.139 Media Representations of Water Rosenstein AB, French-McCay D, Rowe J California, Davis Michigan State University Issues as Health Risks Lexington Environmental Risk Group Other Boyd A, Mayeda A, Paveglio T, Flint C LLC, RPS/ASA P.117 PSCMT: A Supply Chain Model of P.132 Modeling Social Media Washington State University Microbial Contamination Risk in Fresh P.123 A Risk by Any Other Name Engagement Across the Disaster Tomatoes Comparison of Risk Perception Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Would Not Smell As Sweet Continuum P.140 Zoellner C, Jackson P, Al-Mamun MA, Pace ND, Poole C Sutton J, Resnick S, Vos SC, Yu Y, Olson M, Among Thirty Risk Factors in Japan Grohn YT, Worobo R P.109 Indirect Health Risk Reduction University of North Carolina at Chapel Butts SC Ohkubo C Through Transgenic Bt Corn Cornell University Hill University of Kentucky Japan EMF Information Center Yu J, Hennessy D, Wu F Michigan State University Occupational Health and Safety P.124 Comparing Verbal and P.133 Engaging with human gene P.143 Up and Down in the Cycle: Numeric Forecasts New Findings and Editing: Public Views Toward Decision- The Effects of Media Attention on the P.110 Risk Denial: Societal, Organiza- P.118 Health Risk Assessment of Implications making about Controversial Scientific Political Debate and Policy on the tional and Cultural Perspectives Cadmium in Rice Nguyen JD, John RJ Issues Public Risk of Earthquakes Merad MM Kuen Yu Hwu JB, Lai Szu Chi * University of Southern California Rose KM, Scheufele DA, Brossard D, Opperhuizen AE, Schouten KIM, Klijn EH CNRS Taiwan University Xenos MA Erasmus University Rotterdam P.125 Methodology for Policy University of Wisconsin-Madison P.111 Application of Principles of P.119 Risk Analysis and Patient Safety: Characterization Based on the Multiple P.145 Forecasting Barriers to Wide Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality A Tool for Improvement Risk Evaluation Results: Case Study for P.135 What’s Numbers Got to Do with Scale Adoption of Self-Driving Car Analysis to Fluid Milk Food Safety Plan Elmontsri M, Banarsee R, Azeem M Japanese Chemical Replacements It?: The Role of Statistical Content in Technology Kottapalli B, Butler S, Peers M, Imperial College London Kojima N, Xue M, Zhou L, Machimura T, Risk Perception about Road Saftey Dixon GN, Hart PS, Clarke CE, O’Donnell Holzhueter D Ebisudani M, Tokai A Steinhardt JS N ConAgra Brands P.120 Incorporating ToxCast and Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka Michigan State University The Ohio State University ExpoCast Data into Naphthalene Risk University Assessment P.136 Communicating Earthquake P.146 News Media Framing of the Microbial Risk Analysis Bailey LA, Rhomberg LR Preparedness Risk of Induced Seismicity in Four U .S . Risk and Development States Applicability of Whole Genome Gradient Marti M, Stauffacher M, Matthes J, P.112 Lambert CE, McComas KA Sequencing Data for Salmonella risk P.128 Influence of Industrial Activities Wiemer S Assessment in Poultry Meat P.121 Incorporating Health Risk Emissions on Mortality Rates in Chile: ETH Zürich Cornell University Assessment into Facility Layout and Karanth S, Mishra A, Pradhan AK An Ecological Study Process Design University of Maryland College Park Fortt A, Gutierrez VV Huang SH, Chuang YC, Wu KY Universidad Diego Portales, GreenRiver National Taiwan University

2017 Final Program 33 Monday

P.149 The Effect of Gain vs. Loss P.158 Perceptions of Risk and P.167 National Academies Decadal P.175 Field Evaluations of Newly P.182 A Game-Theoretic Approach to Message Framing and Spatial Distance Uncertainty in Climate-adaptive Survey of Social and Behavioral Available “Interference-free” O3 Attacker-Defender Interaction in Cyber on Influencing Support for Aquaculture Forestry Sciences for National Security Monitors and 2-10 meter near-ground Systems Among U .S . Seafood Consumers Findlater KM, Peterson St-Laurent G, Bhatt S, Schuck JA* O3 gradients Outkin AV, Eames BK, Jones ST, Vugrin Rickard LN, Kumara SMSP* Hagerman S, Kozak R National Academies of Sciences, Ollison WM, Leston AR ED, Walsh S, Phillips CA, Hobbs JA, University of Maine University of British Columbia Engineering, and Medicine American Petroleum Institute and Galiardi M, Wyss GD AirQuality Research & Logistics, LLC Sandia National Laboratories P.150 The Role of Science News P.159 The Salience of Environmental P.168 The Risk Assessment of Sources in Shaping Risk Perceptions of Hazards: Making Sense of Citizen Pesticide Residue, Fluopyram, in Tea in P.176 A Review of Non-Chemical P.183 Application of a 3-D Chemical Agricultural Use of Pesticides Concerns and Their Implications for Taiwan Stressors and Their Importance in Fate Prediction Model for Risk Li N, Powers R* Risk Communication Huang J, Wu KY Cumulative Risk Assessment Assessment of Agricultural Chemicals Texas Tech University Binder AR National Taiwan University Hibbert K, Tulve NS in Japanese River Water North Carolina State University U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Kobayashi N, Komatsubara Y, Eriguchi Food Fraud and Consumer Risk T, Ikarashi Y P.152 Current Events/Works in Progress Perception in Quebec (Canada) P.160 Current Situation of Emergency P.177 Framework for Managing National Instutute of Health Sciences De Marcellis-Warin N, Peignier I and Long-term Responses on P.171 Biphasic Low-Dose Patterns of Risks under Ontario’s Local Air Quality Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal Community Risks by Chemical Inhibition-Activation for Three Nuclear Regulation P.184 Effect of Risk Probability Accidents Receptors Linked to Suppressed Gilmore J, Jugloff D,Onica T, Grant C, Disclosure on System Reliability: An P.153 Risk Perceptions of Lone-Wolf Murayama TM, Imanaka IA, Nishikizawa Apoptosis, Cell Proliferation, and Schroeder J Economic Experiment Terrorist Threats and Policy Preferences NS, Nagaoka NA Tumorigenesis: HSP70, Nrf2, and CAR Ontario Ministry of Environment and Akai K, Makino R, Takeshita J, Kudo T, for Government Counterterrorism Tokyo Institute of Technology Bogen KT Climate Change Aoki K Spending: Evidence from a U .S . Exponent, Inc., Health Sciences Shimane University National Panel Survey P.162 The Impact of Advocacy by P.178 Evaluation of ACGIH TLVs for Liu X, Mumpower JL*, Portney KE, Vedlitz Scientists on Credibility and Citizens’ P.172 Applying A Global Sensitivity Toluene Diisocyanate A Deference on Specific Issues Analysis Workflow to Improve Goodman JE, Lynch HN, Prueitt RL, Texas A&M University Stenhouse N, Vraga E, Myers T, Kotcher J, Computational Efficiency in Mohar I Beall L, Maibach E Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Gradient P.154 Who Moved My Coffee? Using University of Wisconsin-Madison Model Psychological Distance to Frame Hsieh NH, Reisfeld B, Bois FY, Weihsueh P.179 Science in the News: The Climate Change Impacts Politicization of Fracking Security and Defense WA Chu H, Yang J Department of Veterinary Integrative McClaran N University at Buffalo, State University of P.165 Thematic Mapping of Cyber Biosciences, Texas A&M University Michigan State University New York Security and Cyber Security Risk: Expert Elicitation of Researchers and P.173 Physiologically Based P.180 Risk Assessment Guidance for P.155 Perception and Acceptance Practitioners Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling Enzyme-containing Products of HPV Vaccination: Evaluating Taber DL, King ZM, Cains MG, Henshel DS of Interstrain Variability in Kruszewski FH The Impacts of Message Framing, Indiana University Perchloroethylene Metabolism in Mice American Cleaning Institute Motivation, Cultural Cognition and Dalaijamts C, Cichocki JA, Luo YS, Rusyn Gender in a Cross-country Context P.166 Hazard Assessment of I, Chiu WA P.181 Application of Livestock Liu S, Yang J Ethylbenzene for Potential Impacts to Texas A&M University Shipment Models to Address Regional University at Buffalo, State University of National Defense Risk of Disease Spread and Detection New York Rak A, Vogel CM, Bandolin N P.174 Assessing the Risk of Maritime Hallman CN, Portacci K, Miller RS, Noblis, US Army Public Health Center Accidents Sellman S, Brommesson P, Beck- P.156 The Influence of Narrative Large PJ, Zouhair F Johnson L, McKee C, Gorsich E, Tsao K, and participatory Drama on Social U.S. Coast Guard Tildesley M, Wennergren U, Lindström T, Interaction and Efficacy Around Health Webb C and Environmental Issues in Malawi U.S. Department of Agriculture, Young CE, McComas KA Linkoping University, Colorado State Cornell University University, University of Warwick

34 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:10 PM Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D Salon E T2-A Roundtable: Principles, T2-B Roundtable: Communicating T2-C Symposium: Perspectives T2-D Symposium: Using Risk T2-E Defense and Policy Methods, and Standards for about Risk: Why Doesn’t on Synthetic Biology Analysis to Address the Needs Chair: Debra Decker Benefit-Cost Analysis in Low- Scientific Evidence Convince Chair: Benjamin Trump of Migrants and the Challenges and Middle-Income Countries People and Political Leaders? of Migration: Is it Happening? 10:30 AM T2-E.1 10:30 AM T2-C.1 A System of Systems Approach to Chair: Lisa Robinson Co-chairs: Chuck Haas, Sharon Friedman Chair: Frederic Bouder Published Literature and Communities Layered Security at a Foward Operating Foundations, international organizations, Victor Hugo once said: “Science says the of Practice for Synthetic Biology 10:30 AM T2-D.1 Base government agencies and others are interested first word on everything, and the last word Hoffman M,Turnley J, Wachtel A, Speed A, in investing to improve the well-being of popu- Trump BD, Cegan J, Poinsatte-Jones The Vaccines We Want: Perception and lations in low- and middle-income countries . on nothing.” While many factors influence K, Wells E, Wood M, Rycroft T, Warner C, Expectations of Syrian Refugees in the Gauthier J, Muñoz-Ramos K, Kittinger R However, choosing which initiatives to fund how citizens and political leaders respond Linkov I Netherlands Sandia National Laboratories, Galisteo to controversial risk issues, why is it that and what level of resources to devote to each US Army Corps of Engineers Bouder F, Strijbosch K Consulting Group Inc. involves difficult choices. If well-conducted, scientific evidence is often downplayed or Maastricht University benefit-cost analysis provides important and even disbelieved by many? Examples of such 10:50 AM T2-C.2 10:50 AM T2-E.2 useful information to support these decisions . risk issues include climate change, childhood Secondary Risks of Vaccine Emotion and Individual Reasoning vaccines, genetically modified foods and 10:50 AM T2-D.2 To increase the comparability of these analyses, About Exclusively Negative Risks: Public nuclear waste, among many others . The Cummings CL Frontex Risk Analysis: A Tool for improve their quality, and expand their use, Responses to a Military Crisis Between paradox of Americans saying in public opinion Nanyang Technological University, Integrated Border Management in the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is the U .S . and North Korea supporting the development of guidelines for polls that they have a great deal of confidence Singapore Europe? economic evaluation (https://sites sph. .harvard . in science while intensely questioning Paul R Ripberger JT, Gupta K, Jenkins-Smith H, 11:10 AM T2-C.3 edu/bcaguidelines/) . These guidelines are scientific evidence, led to a recent newspaper Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Silva C designed to encourage completion of high- headline: “People trust science . So why Comparative Review of the Studies Harvard/Law and Society Unit University of Oklahoma quality, transparent, and consistent evaluations don’t they believe it?” Perhaps some of the Environmental Effects of Biofuels that address the needs of decision-makers and Bielefeld University answers lie in the complex risk communica- Wells E, Trump BD, Linkov I 11:10 AM T2-E.3 other stakeholders . tion patterns that evolve around controversial US Army Corps of Engineers - Risk and 11:10 AM T2-D.3 Risk Governance for Security: This session provides an opportunity to learn scientific issues, including conflicting roles International Challenges for the played by scientists and scientific societies, Decision Science Team Evacuation Following a Natural Disaster more about the development of these guide- Versus Migration to Escape Armed Nuclear Sector lines and to offer feedback on their content, the mass and social media, government 11:30 AM T2-C.4 aiding in shaping the ultimate recommenda- officials, and lobbying and nonprofit organiza- Conflict - What May Be the Impact on Decker DK tions . We will provide an overview of the project tions . This roundtable proposes to explore High Risk, High Reward: The Role Children and Young Adults? Stimson Center and summarize our work to-date, then discuss various issues related to communicating of Ambivalence in Perceptions of Rath B, Myles P selected methodological topics in more detail . 11:30 AM T2-E.4 about scientific evidence and risks. Can scien- Nanotechnology and Synthetic Biology The Vienna Vaccine Safety Initiative, The These include draft recommendations for tific evidence about risks provide rapid and Wirz CD, Howell EL, Brossard D, Inconvenient Truths: When Risks Aren’t valuing reductions in fatal and nonfatal risks and University of Nottingham timely responses to important risk questions as Severe as You Would Like for using economy-wide (computable general Scheufele DA, Xenos MA equilibrium) models to estimate impacts . The as they arise in the public? Does engaging the University of Wisconsin-Madison 11:30 AM T2-D.4 Rouse JR final recommendations will ultimately be incor- public directly in town halls, science juries Assessment of Health-related Risk Arete Associates, The Joint Staff porated into easy-to-use, step-by-step guidance . or other events facilitate better acceptance Sponsored by: Factors in Internally Displaced Person of risk science? Can scientific uncertainty After brief presentations and comments from Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Populations Living in Camp Settings in 11:50 AM T2-E.5 discussants, we will allow substantial time for be presented to the public as an accept- Group Nigeria Exploring Optimal Risk-Based feedback from the audience . able response, particularly when evidence Strategies for Medical Countermeasure is changing rapidly? Can risk evidence be Ekezie W, Timmons S, Siebert P, Myles P, Panelists: (MCM) Stockpiles presented without also presenting a point of Pritchard C, Bains M Lisa A . Robinson and James K . Hammitt Hartnett E, Payette P, Paoli G (Harvard Center for Health Decision Science and view? Is there any form of risk communication University of Nottingham, United Center for Risk Analysis), James E . Neumann that can overcome deeply held public views Kingdom Risk Sciences International (Industrial Economics, Incorporated), Maureen about a risk controversy? Cropper (University of Maryland), Chris Dockins Sponsored by: Panelists: Sponsored by: (U .S . Environmental Protection Agency), Urvashi Risk, Policy and Law Specialty Group Security and Defense Specialty Group Narain (The World Bank), and Sandra Hoffmann Sharon Friedman, George Gray, Michael (U .S . Department of Agriculture) Greenberg, Roger Kasperson, Katherine McComas and Kim Thompson . Sponsored by: Economics and Benefits Analysis Sponsored by: Specialty Group and Society for Benefit- Risk Communication Specialty Group Cost Analysis 2017 Final Program 35 Tuesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 T2-F Symposium: Engineering T2-G Applied Risk Management: T2-H Risk-Informed Priority T2-I New Models for T2-J Symposium: U.S. and Modeling of Resilience Risk Culture, Risk Values, Setting: Methods and Challenges Dose-Response National Security Interests Chair: Hiba Baroud and Compliance Co-chairs: Amir Mokhtari, David Oryang Chair: Allen Davis and Transnational Security Chair: Patricia Larkin Decision Making 10:30 AM T2-F.1 10:30 AM T2-H.1 10:30 AM T2-I.1 Chair: James Baker Emergence of Antifragility by Optimum 10:30 AM T2-G.1 Developing and Using Decision Analysis Rat and Human PBPK Model for Postdisruption Restoration Planning of Investigating the Evolution of risk Tools for the FDA Foods Program – A Malathion: Application for Risk 10:30 AM T2-J.1 Infrastructure Networks Culture in Disparate Fields Decade of Continual Improvement Assessment Confronting the Collapse of Fang Y, Sansavini G* Schell MC, Schell KR, Abdulla A Oryang DO, Fanaselle W, Van Doren J, Reiss R, Loccisano A, Whatling P, Wang W Humanitarian Values in Foreign Policy ETH Zürich University of Rochester, University Dennis S Exponent, FMC Corporation Decision Making of Michigan, Ann Arbor, University of CFSAN, FDA Slovic P 10:50 AM T2-F.2 10:50 AM T2-I.2 California, San Diego Decision Research, University of Oregon Metrics for Resilience: What Are We 10:50 AM T2-H.2 Assessing Uncertainty and Variability Really Measuring? 10:50 AM T2-G.2 A Performance-Based Method in Biochemical Parameters in a PBTK 10:50 AM T2-J.2 MacKenzie CA Risk Governance and “Responsible for Microbial Risk Assessment for Model for Perchlorate Overcoming the Prominence Effect in Iowa State University Research and Innovation” Organizations Kapraun DF, Schlosser PM Transnational Security Decisions Florin MV, Van de Poel I* McClellan GE, Coleman ME US Environmental Protection Agency Delaney D 11:10 AM T2-F.3 TU Delft Applied Research Associates, Inc. University of Maryland Center for Health 11:10 AM T2-I.3 Measuring Community Recovery Rate and Homeland Security, Carey School 11:10 AM T2-H.3 with Sparse Data: A Comparison of 11:10 AM T2-G.3 Dose-Response Assessment of Arsenic of Law Multiple Approaches Helping Make Green New Zealand Source Attribution at the Sub-product in Drinking Water: A Bayesian Network Yu J, Baroud H Even Greener: The Challenges and Level for 32 Pathogen-commodity Model of Diabetes Risks 11:10 AM T2-J.3 Vanderbilt University Rewards of a Regulator Sharing Its Risk Combinations for the development of MacDonald-Gibson J, Zabinski J Behavioral Considerations in Context: Assessment Methodology the Canadian Food Inspection Agency University of North Carolina at Chapel Crisis Decision Making by Senior Public 11:30 AM T2-F.4 Bailey LB, Bromfield KE,Corin C, Establishment-based Risk Assessment Hill Officials An Indicator-Based Assessment of Holmes G Model Baker JE 11:30 AM T2-I.4 Community Resilience to Failure of New Zealand Environmental Protection Zanabria R, Racicot M, Leroux A, ABA Standing Committee on Law and Flood Protection Infrastructure Authority Arsenault J, Ferrouillet C, Griffiths M, Impact of Generalized Informative Prior National Security Gillespie-Marthaler L, Camp J, Baroud H, Holley R, Gill T, Charlebois S, Quessy S on BMD Estimation Using Dichotomous Abkowitz M 11:30 AM T2-G.4 Canadian Food Inspection Agency Data 11:30 AM T2-J.4 Vanderbilt University On the Relation Between Safety Shao K A Public Choice Perspective on Outcomes and Regulatory Compliance 11:30 AM T2-H.4 Indiana University Behavioral Approaches to National Sponsored by: Wiersma RP Methodological Lessons Learnt from Security Decision Making Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Technical Standards and Safety Developing a Risk-benefit Assessment Sponsored by: Stearns M Applied to Infant Milk-based Diet Group Authority Dose Response Specialty Group University of Maryland Carey School of Boué G, Cummins E, Guillou S, Antignac Law Sponsored by: JP, Le Bizec B, Membré JM Applied Risk Management Specialty Oniris / INRA Sponsored by: Group Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group Sponsored by: Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group

36 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D T2-K Roundtable: Understanding T3-A Symposium: New T3-B Roundtable: Scientific and T3-C Symposium: Advances T3-D Cumulative Risk Assessment Perceptions of Benefits and Risks Perspectives on the Public Understanding of Risk: in Probability Assessment Chair: Kristen Spicer Posed by Microbiota of Milks Energy Paradox The Role of Social Sciences for Risk Analysis 1:30 PM T3-D.1 Co-chairs: Ann Bostrom, Warner North Chair: Randall Lutter Chair: Andreas Klinke Chair: Richard John Implications of Applying Cumulative Regulators and stakeholders around the world differ 1:30 PM T3-A.1 Over the last two decades, the prevailing 1:30 PM T3-C.1 Risk Assessments to the Workplace in their perceptions of risks and benefits of fresh Assessing the Energy Paradox in techno-scientific culture in risk analysis, Quantifying the Accuracy of Subjective Fox MA, Spicer KE*, Susi P, Chosewood unprocessed milks (human and bovine) and pasteur- assuming that natural-scientific and technical ized milks . A joint SRA RO project began outreach LC, Johns DO, Dotson GS Reasonably Competitive Markets: New experts are capable of determining mathemati- Probability Estimates: A Meta-Analysis documenting the state of the science on the Evidence from Heavy Duty Trucking Johns Hopkins University, Murray State microbiota of milks and engaging in dialogue with cally the probability of occurrence, a measure Baucum M, Nguyen K SRA practitioners and other stakeholders through a Fraas A, Lutter R, Wietelman D, Porter Z, of potential damages and an estimate of the University of Southern California University, Avanti Industrial Hygiene, webinar series (podcasts, slide sets available) . Two Wallace A consequences of risks of all sorts, has changed The National Institute for Occupational SRA Past-Presidents will moderate discussions of the towards a better integration of social sciences 1:50 PM T3-C.2 Safety and Health evidence for risks and benefits of fresh unprocessed Resources for the Future in risk research . A forthcoming special issue of mother’s milk to infants, including a key study Comparing Verbal and Numeric Risk Analysis that will be published in 2018 is 1:50 PM T3-D.2 demonstrates loss of benefits for neonates in NICU 1:50 PM T3-A.2 investigating the role of particular areas of social Forecasts New Findings and environments that ingest Holder pasteurized donor Assessing the Risk of Product Failure in sciences on risk research – such as perception, Implications A Prelude to a Cumulative Risk milk . The moderators and panelists will discuss Assessment: Qualitative Analysis of Work- rationales for and against pasteurization in light of Regulatory Analysis: Case Studies from communication, trust, social amplification, Nguyen KD, John RJ Related Asthma among Healthcare an emerging dimension: the microbiota of milks . Energy Efficiency Lawsuits media, organizational structures, governance, University of Southern California Discussions will be grounded in the major elements and so on – by reconstructing and critically Workers of risk communication (trust, fairness, and emotion- Fraas AG, Miller SE* reflecting the genealogy as well as the present 2:10 PM T3-C.3 Johns DO, Virji MA, Park JH, MacDonell ality) . Various risk communication approaches George Washington University and future development in particular areas of (evidence mapping, mental modeling) will be social science inquiry from their point of view . How to Debias Overprecision in MM, Cox-Ganser JM considered . Also of keen interest is evidence for risks 2:10 PM T3-A.3 Probability Elicitations? and benefits of fresh unprocessed bovine milk for The social science perspective has transformed Centers for Disease Control and consumers, including children and adults . Evidence How Much Do New Vehicle Consumers the thinking about risk and uncertainty; it has Ferretti V, Guney S, Montibeller G*, Von Prevention, Argonne National mentioned in the symposium for human milks will Value Fuel Economy and Performance? illuminated the explanatory power and infused Winterfeldt D Laboratory be included, along with additional evidence for interdisciplinary risk research and real world risk Evidence from Technology Adoption Loughborough University bovine milks, in exercises of analytic-deliberative management . Far from being merely a social 2:10 PM T3-D.3 process in the next phase of this multi-year joint Leard B, Linn J*, Zhou YC science accommodation to traditional risk Exploring Categorical Occupational RO project (a 2 5-day. stand-alone SRA workshop in Resources for the Future analysis, the social science theories, concepts, 2:30 PM T3-C.4 2018) . Participants in the symposium will discuss analytical approaches and methods create Contingency, Causality, and Risk Exposure Limits with a Quantitative what is known about the healthy human milk Framework to Group Nanoscale and microbiome, research gaps, researchable questions, 2:30 PM T3-A.4 something new and innovative by crossing John RS, Baucum M boundaries and providing a surplus for the Microscale Particles by Hazard Potency and potential improvements in developing evidence- Are Auto Consumers Rational about University of Southern California based policies and risk communications . scientific and public understanding of risk. The Drew NM, Kuempel ED, Pei Y, Yang F Conventional Hybrids? Round Table will give authors of contributions Panelists: Graham JD, Julian AA, Kin Lu A, Duncan in the special issue the opportunity to distill Sponsored by: National Institute for Occupational Cynthia Bearer, U MD Medical School (Chief of D, Siddiki S, Carley S key developments of social science inquiry in Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Safety and Health Neonatology/Associate Chair for Research); Peg risk research and discuss with the audience the Coleman, Upstate NY SRA (microbiology/microbial Indiana University Group risks and benefits); Bill Hallman, Rutgers University following questions: How do social sciences 2:30 PM T3-D.4 contribute to the foundations of risk analysis? (risk communication/food safety); Ellen Silbergeld, Sponsored by: Why Many Field-based Toxicity Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health How do social sciences contribute to a better Thresholds are Unreliable: Statistical (health/environmental policy); Tanya Soboleva, Economics and Benefits Analysis scientific and public understanding of risk? Is Australia/New Zealand SRA (food science/risk Specialty Group and Society for Benefit- there an increasing tendency towards more Artifacts Affecting Causal Inference assessment) Cost Analysis interdisciplinary inquiry that goes beyond multi- Kashuba RO, Menzie CA, Buonagurio JE Scope and Structure of Round Table disciplinarity? Where are still shortcomings in Exponent Panel Discussions terms of an integration of natural, technological and social sciences in risk research? The focus for the round table panel symposium Sponsored by: is on evidence for risks and benefits from fresh Panelists: unprocessed and pasteurized human milks for Occupational Health and Safety and infants (NICU and others) . Input will be sought on the Sharon Friedman, Robert Goble, Roger Dose Response Specialty Groups state of the evidence and key researchable questions Kasperson, Kenneth Arne Pettersen, Terje necessary to inform future decision making for Aven,Micheal Siegrist, Jeannette Sutton human donor milk in this phase of the project, and for bovine milk in the next stage of the project, the Sponsored by: 2018 workshop . Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Sponsored by: Specialty Group Risk Communication Specialty Group 2017 Final Program 37 Tuesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM Salon E Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K T3-E Symposium: Conflict T3-F Symposium: An T3-G Applied Risk Management: T3-H Modeling Transmission T3-I Symposium: The Life Cycle- Scenarios and Global Interdisciplinary Analysis of Integrated Risk Management, of Microbial Contaminants in Human Exposure Model (LC-HEM) Catastrophic Risks Multiple Risks and Lessons Systemic and Cascading Risks Poultry, Meat and Beyond Project: Research on Sentinel and Chair: Anthony Barrett Learned from Flint, Michigan Chair: Myriam Merad Co-chairs: Moez Sanaa, Abhinav Mishra Aggregate Chemical Exposures Chair: Jade Mitchell from Use of Consumer Products 1:30 PM T3-E.1 1:30 PM T3-G.1 1:30 PM T3-H.1 Chair: Paul Price High Risk Scenarios of Gene Drives in 1:30 PM T3-F.1 How Can Organisations Deal with Cross-contamination of Broiler Ecosystems Lessons Learned from Flint about the Systemic Risks? Chickens with Campylobacter During 1:30 PM T3-I.1 Kuzma J Operation and Resilience of Water Florin MV, Pfeiffer S Transport Developing a Rich Definition of the NC State University Treatment Infrastructure IRGC, EPFL Otten A, Ernst N, Ng V, Smith BA, Fazil A Person/Residence to Support Person- Masten SJ, McElmurry S, Davies SH Public Health Agency of Canada oriented Models of Consumer Product 1:50 PM T3-E.2 Michigan State University, Wayne State 1:50 PM T3-G.2 Usage Does the Nuclear Balance Matter? University An Argument and Methods for 1:50 PM T3-H.2 Price PS, Glen WG, Hubbard HF, Isaacs Pinelis J, Scouras J, Slavinsky I* Integrated Risk Assessment for Decision Ordinal QMRA to Prioritize Pork KK, Dionisio KL Johns Hopkins University Applied 1:50 PM T3-F.2 Support Products that May Contribute US Environmental Protection Agency Physics Laboratory Links Between Physical and Chemical Ramsey BA, Wilson JM, Smith KL, Norton to Foodborne Hepatitis E Virus Water Quality, Reported Incidence of RA Transmission 1:50 PM T3-I.2 2:10 PM T3-E.3 Legionnaires’ Disease, and Waterborne Desert Research Institute, UNR, Auburn Bouwknegt M, Van’t Hooft BJ,Koppen K, Human Exposure Model (HEM): A Socio-economic Challenges and Legionella Pneumophila in Flint, University Rietveld H, Straatsma G, Heres L Modular, Web-based Application Conflict for Climate Scenarios for Michigan Vion, Boxtel, Stegeman, Deventer, Dutch to Characterize Near-field Chemical Sub-Saharan Africa Garner E, Rhoads WJ, Edwards MA, 2:10 PM T3-G.3 Meat Products Association, Zoetermeer, Exposures and Releases Schweizer VJ, Mitchell RE Pruden A Perspectives on Risk Assessment and Zwanenberg, Almelo, Sonac, Son Dionisio KL, Isaacs KK, Phillips K, Lyons University of Waterloo Virginia Tech Risk Management for Carbon Capture D, Brandon N, Levasseur J, Hubbard H, and Storage 2:10 PM T3-H.3 Vallero D, Egeghy P, Price PS 2:30 PM T3-E.4 2:10 PM T3-F.3 Larkin P, Leiss W, Arvai J, Dusseault M, Risk Assessment for Transfusion Environmental Protection Agency Has the Advent of Nuclear Weapons Institutional Failure as a Risk Factor Gracie R, Fall M, Heyes A, Krewski D Transmission of Dengue Saved Lives? Beecher JA University of Ottawa Huang Y, Lane C, Rios M, Fares-Gusmao 2:10 PM T3-I.3 Toton E, Scouras J, Ice L* Michigan State University R, Chancey C, Forshee R, Yang H Predicting Exposure to Consumer- Johns Hopkins University 2:30 PM T3-G.4 Food and Drug Administration Products Using Agent-Based Models 2:30 PM T3-F.4 Risk-based Analyses of a hypothetical Embedded with Needs-Based Artificial Sponsored by: Discussion of Lessons Learned from Expansion in the Scope of the U .S . 2:30 PM T3-H.4 Intelligence and Empirically -Based Security and Defense Specialty Group Flint about Risk Assumptions in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Safety Assessing the Impact of Different Scheduling Models Lead and Copper Rule Goal Policy for Nuclear Power Plants Microbiological Criteria for Salmonella Brandon NV, Price PS, Dionisio KL, Isaacs Feighner B, Mitchell JB* Hudson DW in Raw Poultry Products KK Michigan Department of Environmental Johns Hopkins University Lambertini E, Kowalcyk BB, Ruzante JM US Environmental Protection Agency Quality, Michigan State University RTI International Sponsored by: 2:30 PM T3-I.4 Sponsored by: Applied Risk Management Specialty Sponsored by: Leveraging Publicly-Available Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group Consumer Product and Chemical Data Group in Support of Exposure Modeling Isaacs KK, Dionisio KL, Phillips KA, Price PS United States Environmental Protection Agency

Sponsored by: Exposure Assessment Specialty Group

38 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C T3-J Roundtable: What is the T3-K New Developments T4-A Benefit-Cost Analysis T4-B Roundtable: Developing T4-C Symposium: GIS-Aided Optimal Approach to Organizing in Risk Perception and Risk of Complex Systems Guidelines for Each Domain of Decision Tools for Managing Governmental Risk-Related Communication Theory Chair: Amber Jessup Risk Management Practice Environmental Risks and Disasters Science Advisory Processes Chair: Christopher Clarke Chair: John Lathrop Chair: Sheree Pagsuyoin 3:30 PM T4-A.1 Chair: Bernard Goldstein 1:30 PM T3-K.1 Benefit Cost Analysis of Enabling The Applied Risk Management Specialty 3:30 PM T4-C.1 Recent activities by both Congress and Measuring Risk Perception: Is There a Regulations: Insights from FAA’s Small Group is writing a document: Principles Workforce, Economy, Infrastructure, Right Way? UAS Rule and Guidelines for Analytic Support of Geography, Hierarchy, and Time by EPA Administrator Pruitt provide an Risk Management . That document is opportunity to evaluate approaches Wilson RS, Zwickle A Aiken DV, Wharff J intended as a vehicle for broad discussion (WEIGHT): Reflections on the Plural for organizing risk-related scientific The Ohio State University U.S. Department of Transportation and conclusions, with a goal of defining a Dimensions of Disaster Resilience advisory processes for regulatory consistent set of principles and guidelines Santos JR, Yip C, Pagsuyoin S, Thekdi S agencies . The EPA Science Advisory 1:50 PM T3-K.2 3:50 PM T4-A.2 that applies across all areas of SRA . Last George Washington University Board Reform Act has been passed Public Concern About Risk: A Critical Nuclear Energy Economics: Valuing year we focused on principles, this year we by the US House of Representatives (Re)Evaluation Strategic Security focus on guidelines. We have identified 16 3:50 PM T4-C.2 domains of application and 21 challenges Risk-based Decisions and Strategies for and is awaiting action in the US Barnett J, Fellenor J Decker D to be addressed in each of those domains . Senate, which may or may or may not University of Bath Stimson Center Some of the challenges: Capturing the risk Geospatial Multi-network Resilience be forthcoming . These have gener- generating process; characterizing the risk Thekdi S, Aros-Vera F ated media interest and controversy 2:10 PM T3-K.3 4:10 PM T4-A.3 event space; reducing data down to effective University of Richmond and some have characterized these Fighting Risk with Risk: An Exploration Cybersecurity Investment as a decision guidance in a valid and reviewable actions as unnecessarily politicizing of Attitudes Towards Inter-domain Risk Differential Game way; assessing the uncertainties and validly 4:10 PM T4-C.3 science and decreasing the likelihood Tradeoffs Alexeev A, Jardine E, Krutilla K* taking them into account in risk manage- Ecological Risk Assessment of ment; considering scenarios “not on the list”; of the involvement of knowledgeable Walpole HW, Wilson RS Indiana University, Virginia Tech developing robust and resilient strategies; Heavy Metals in Soil, Water and River academic scientists in EPA review The Ohio State University setting an adequate budget; validly choosing Sediments in and around Bued River processes . Others have pointed 4:30 PM T4-A.4 among alternative analyses; adversary Diola MBLD, Resurreccion AC*, Bautista out that there is a need to broaden 2:30 PM T3-K.4 EPR for Plastics Packaging: Does It modeling where it applies; data availability CC, Quiocho RE scientific representation in diverse Development and Validation of Make Sense to Distinguish Among and collection; data validation; data manage- University of the Philippines Diliman fields, and to improve procedures for Novel Scales to Measures Cultural Plastics Types? ment; data QA/QC; model validation; model balancing perspectives and perceived Worldviews in the UK Cabrera C, Cifuentes LA documentation; and effective communica- 4:30 PM T4-C.4 tion/advice into the actual risk management biases on EPA scientific advisory Lord JJ, Whitmarsh L, Poortinga W Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile decision process . We can’t do an adequate Spatio-Temporal Drought Risk panels . The Roundtable participants Cardiff University job in all 16 domains, so we are initiating a Analysis Using GIS-based Input Output will be asked to focus on the under- 4:50 PM T4-A.5 process where we cover as many domains Modeling lying principles that should guide the 2:50 PM T3-K.5 Burden of Disease for CDC-recognized as we can, then invite others to participate in Pagsuyoin SA, Santos JR, Salcedo G, science advisory processes for the The Effects of Construal Level on Urgent Threats: Clostridium extending our work to other domains . The Yip C writing of the document will span multiple optimal provision of scientific advice Perceptions of Climate-exacerbated Difficile, Carbapenem-resistant University of Massachusetts Lowell on risk-related issues to a regulatory Hazards Enterobacteriaceae, and Drug-resistant years . We will conduct this roundtable as a working session, to acquire as many ideas as agency . Walpole EH, Wilson RS, Toman E Neisseria Gonorrheae Infections we can from all participants . The panelists will 4:50 PM T4-C.5 The Ohio State University Sertkaya A, Wong H, Jessup A, Ertis D each pose key dilemmas and challenges we Using GIS Data and Tools to Assess the Panelists: Eastern Research Group, Inc. have encountered in developing guidelines, Vulnerability of Industrial Facilities and Arvai J, Beck N, Denison RA, Goldstein Sponsored by: then call for ideas and arguments from Natural Resources to Flooding Events BD, White KW, Yosie T Risk Communications Specialty Group Sponsored by: everyone in the room . One of our underlying Mayo MJ, Ikeda S, Briggs NL, Petito agendas is to enlist others in our writing Economics and Benefits Analysis Boyce C, Mayfield DB Sponsored by: effort, in particular SRA members outside of Specialty Group and Society for Benefit- our Specialty Group . Gradient Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group Cost Analysis Panelists: Sponsored by: Patricia Larkin, Willy Roed, Rob Waller, Seth Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Guikema Group

Sponsored by: Applied Risk Management Specialty Group 2017 Final Program 39 Tuesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM Salon D Salon E Salon FG Salon H Salon J T4-D Symposium: DOD Efforts T4-E Government Investment T4-F Power Systems Resilience T4-G Symposium: Foundational T4-H Symposium: Innovative to Advance Risk Assessment & Finance Strategies for Chair: Roshi Nateghi Issues in Risk Analysis II Microbial Risk Modeling of Nanomaterials Risk Management Chair: Roger Flage for Food Supply Chain 3:30 PM T4-F.1 Chair: Jo Anne Shatkin Chair: Saurabh Mishra Co-chairs: Abani Pradhan, Yanbin Li Forecasting Storm-Induced Power 3:30 PM T4-G.1 3:30 PM T4-D.1 3:30 PM T4-E.1 Outages and Restoration Personnel A Safety Perspective on Systemic Risk 3:30 PM T4-H.1 A DOD Framework for Examining Government Support of Investment Needs Selvik JT, Signoret JP Innovative Supply Chain and System Possible Health and Environmental Projects as an Instrument of Risk Guikema SD, Quiring S, Buckstaff K,Beck University of Stavanger, International Modeling Approaches for Pathogenic Impacts of Nanomaterials for Use in Management M, Nateghi R, McRoberts B, Logan T Research Institute of Stavanger, France: Bacteria in Leafy Greens Weapon Systems Novikova TS University of Michigan Project leader of ISO/TR 12489 Pradhan AK Rak A, Underwood PM, Shatkin JA, Ede J Novosibirsk State University, Department University of Maryland, College Park Noblis and Office of the Assistant of Economics 3:50 PM T4-F.2 3:50 PM T4-G.2 Secretary of Defense (Energy, Allocating Resources to Enhance Emerging Empirical Research on Risk 3:50 PM T4-H.2 Installations, and Environment) 3:50 PM T4-E.2 Resilience, with Application to Perception and Risk Behavior Using Application of Failure Mode Effects Selecting Investment Strategies for Superstorm Sandy and an Electric the New Uncertainty–based Risk Criticality Analysis (FMECA) for Effective 3:50 PM T4-D.2 Disaster Risk Reduction in Developing Utility Perspectives Implementation of Food Safety Plans Quantifying Release from Nano and Countries: The Case of Flood Protection MacKenzie CA, Zobel CW Bjerga T, Aven T Kottapalli B Advanced Material Enabled Products in the Rio Rocha Basin Iowa State University University of Stavanger ConAgra Brands Brame JA, Alberts E, Poda AR, Kennedy Corderi Novoa D, Hori T, Yarmin L AJ* Inter-American Development Bank 4:10 PM T4-F.3 4:10 PM T4-G.3 4:10 PM T4-H.3 US Army Engineer Research and Quantifying Power System Resilience The Rise of Resilience: Inside the A Novel Approach for Modeling Development Center 4:10 PM T4-E.3 to Support Decisions in the Face of Strange World of Risk and Sustainability Microbial Cross-contamination Country-based Assessment of Global Adverse Weather Events Governance Dynamics Inside Food Manufacturing 4:10 PM T4-D.3 Risk Profiles Using Ensemble Deep Staid A, Watson JP, Bynum ML, Arguello Merad MM Facilities Important Considerations in the Learning B CNRS Mokhtari A, Oryang D, Chen Y, Van Doren Risk Assessment of DOD Relevant Mishra S, Ayyub B Sandia National Labs J Nanoscale Materials University of Maryland College Park, 4:30 PM T4-G.4 FDA-CFSAN Ede JD, Shatkin JA International Finance Corporation 4:30 PM T4-F.4 Antibiotic Resistance: The Need for a Vireo Advisors, LLC Electric Power System Inadequacy Risk New Risk Assessment Framework 4:30 PM T4-H.4 4:30 PM T4-E.4 in the Residential Sector Wu F, Chen C* Risk-Driven Decision-Making Towards 4:30 PM T4-D.4 The Saga Continues: Insight into the Nateghi R Michigan State University Food Protection in China: Quantitative Assessing the Global Risk of Greek Debt Crisis Through a Repeated Purdue University Tools and Analysis Nanotechnology-enabled Weapons Game 4:50 PM T4-G.5 Rainwater CR, Pohl EP, Enayaty FE Proliferation Welburn JW, Hausken KH 4:50 PM T4-F.5 Knowledge Dimensions in the Risk University of Arkansas Nichols GP RAND Corporation Assessing the Resilience Power Field – Ontologies and Epistemologies Homeland Defense and Security Systems Under Renewable Sources Ylonen M 4:50 PM T4-H.5 Information Analysis Center (HDIAC) Sponsored by: Supply Risk VTT Technical Research Centre of Exploring Efficient Simulation Risk and Development and Economics Winckler V, Wollega E, Baroud H* Finland Techniques in Quantitative Microbial Sponsored by: and Benefits Analysis Specialty Groups Vanderbilt University Risk Assessment (QMRA) Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Sponsored by: Paoli G, Hartnett E Group Sponsored by: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Risk Sciences International Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Specialty Group Group Sponsored by: Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group

40 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Tuesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 5:15 PM – 6:00 PM Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A T4-I Roundtable: Synthetic T4-J Revealing Implicit and Explicit T4-K Exposure to Chemical T5-A Roundtable: Openness in Biology and Gene Drives - Risk Assessment as to Financial Contaminats in Food Risk Analysis: Data, Software Science, Policy, and Risk Risk and Government Precaution and Drinking Water and Reproducibility Chair: Diane Henshel Chair: Branden Johnson Chair: Chris Greene Chair: CN Haas Gene drives may have a wide range 3:30 PM T4-J.1 3:30 PM T4-K.1 Reproducibility, open data and open of substantial benefits to human, Disinfecting Cost-Benefit Analysis of Characterizing Co-contamination software are increasingly viewed as ecological, and agricultural popula- Hidden Value-Laden Constraints in Marine and Freshwater Fish and important in the conduct of science tions at local, regional, and even global Finkel AM Shellfish using Generalized Joint and scientifically based risk assess- scales . Potential applications include Univ. of Pennsylvania, Univ. of Michigan Attribute Modeling ments . This aligns with historical reducing or stopping the spread of Bourne K, Curtis A, Borsuk ME*, Chen CY concerns about transparency in risk vector-transported diseases and 3:50 PM T4-J.3 Duke University analysis . This roundtable will facilitate invasive species, conservation of threat- Local Management and Effects on a discussion on the degree to which ened/endangered species, and many Citizen Reporting Risks and Externalities 3:50 PM T4-K.2 open data, open software and prin- more, through modification of the of Oil and Gas Drilling Trends in Toxicity Adjusted Dietary ciples of reproducible analysis should prevalence of a particular genotype to Scott RP Exposure to Organophosphorous and be encouraged, or even required, for express or suppress genetic traits within Colorado State University N-Methyl Carbamate Pesticides publication in RISK ANALYSIS . a population . Unknown and potentially Nako S, Sarkar B unintended consequences of gene 4:10 PM T4-J.4 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Panelists: drive applications, including off-target Public Cues to Relative Credibility of LA Cox, Editor-in-Chief Risk Analysis, and non-target effects at the individual, Disputing Scientists . 4:10 PM T4-K.4 Area Editors population, and community levels, Johnson BB Racial Disparities in Access to Municipal accompany these potential benefits Decision Research Water Supplies in the American and require numerous research, South: Impacts on Lead Exposure and policy, and ethical considerations . 4:30 PM T4-J.5 Children’s Health Risk analysis methods can be used to The Risk Regulation Turn in Financial Stillo F, MacDonald-Gibson J evaluate potential benefits as well as Regulation University of North Carolina at Chapel consequences and inform research Weber RF Hill and policy decisions . This roundtable Georgia State University session will bring together a panel Sponsored by: of leading experts in the developing Sponsored by: Exposure Assessment Specialty Group science and policy of gene drives to Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group facilitate a comprehensive discussion addressing the many facets of this rapidly progressing field.

Panelists: Wayne Landis, Jennifer Kuzma, Keegan Sawyer, and Ben Trump

Sponsored by: Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Group

2017 Final Program 41 Wednesday

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D Salon E W1-A Symposium: Integrated W1-B Roundtable: The EU and W1-C Symposium: Methods of W1-D From Nanotechnology W1-E Emerging Threats Health Impact Assessment the US Projects & Activities in the Quantifying Risk and Burden Risk Management to Innovative and Deterence for Air Pollution and Global Area of Resilience Assessment: of Foodborne Illness Governance: Developing Chair: Steve Streetman Climate Change in China How Far are We from a Chair: Ioana Marasteanu a Reliable and Trustable 8:30 AM W1-E.1 Chair: Ying Li Common Global Approach? Framework and Tools 8:30 AM W1-C.1 HAZOP Based Emerging-Technology Chair: Aleksandar Jovanovic Co-chairs: Khara Grieger, Piet Sellke 8:30 AM W1-A.1 Estimating the Risk of Foodborne Scenario Hazard Screening Activity Patterns of Exposure to Indoor The round table would involve 2-3 “flash Illness Attributed to Food 8:30 AM W1-D.1 Barrett AM and Outdoor Air Pollution in Chinese presentations” (5 mins max ., each) from Handling Behaviors in Retail Food Risk Governance in caLIBRAte: The ABS Consulting, GCR Institute Population the US (leading initiatives/institutions) Establishments and Households Integration of Analysis, Perception and Duan X, Wang B, Cao S, Jiang Y, Wang L and respective 2-3 presentation from the Marasteanu IJ, Liggans G, Otto J, Lasher Participation 8:50 AM W1-E.2 University of Science and Technology of current leading projects/institutions in A Sellke P, Porcari A, Borsella E, Benighaus Improving Complex Security Risk Beijing the EU . It will be followed by the moder- FDA C, Mehmood A, Kelly S, Renn O, Analysis with Computational Creativity ated discussion around the following Rodrigures I Crowther KG 8:50 AM W1-C.2 8:50 AM W1-A.2 main issues: Dialogik MITRE Corporation Evaluation of China’s Mercury Emission a . Is a common guideline needed and Restriction of Recently Ill Food- 9:10 AM W1-E.3 Controls in the Coal-fired Power possible? preparation Employees in Retail Food 8:50 AM W1-D.2 Industry: Projection for the Health and Establishments: Evaluation of Risk Development of Nano-Risk Radar Deterrence or Deflection? Gauging b . Is a global data pool on threats and Assessment Results on Foodborne Perceptions of Defensive Deterrence Welfare Effects indicators a realistic and senseful for Emerging Risks Related to Norovirus Transmission and Target Substitutability Zhang W, Zhen G, Chen L, Wang H, Li Y, goal? How to get closer to it? Nanotechnology/Nanomaterials for the Ye X, Tong Y, Zhu Y, Wang X Fanaselle W, Pouillot R, Liggans G, EU Project caLIBRAte Davenport C, Smith DS c . Are the national/geographic/ Williams L, Van Doren J University of Maryland Renmin University of China regional differences greater than Jovanovic A, Qunitero FA, Ahmad M Federal Government, U.S. Food and Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies 9:10 AM W1-A.3 the differences among the different 9:30 AM W1-E.4 infrastructures; Drug Administration GmbH Trade-induced Atmospheric Mercury Degree of Difficulty for Terrorist Attacks: Deposition over China and Implications d . How to deal with explosion of 9:10 AM W1-C.3 9:10 AM W1-D.3 An Approach to Improving Likelihood for Demand-side Controls possible scenarios in practical Evolution of the Value of the Burden Moving from Risk Assessment to Risk Assessment and Evaluation of analysis of cascading effects. Long C, Haoran Z, Wei Z, Xuejun W of Foodborne Illness in Regulatory Governance and Decision Support for Alternatives for Decision Making East China Normal University The discussion will include some polling Analysis Nanomaterials: Lessons Learned from Streetman SS of opinions and establishing of the Lasher A Select Case Studies Data Architecture Solutions, Inc. 9:30 AM W1-A.4 priorities for alignment, aiming at identi- FDA Grieger KD Projecting Future Climate Change fying the issues where the investment in RTI International Sponsored by: Impacts on Heat-related Mortality in alignment will yield the most benefit. In 9:30 AM W1-C.4 Security and Defense Specialty Group Large Urban Areas in China addition, the risks and drawbacks of the An Exposure Weighted Measure of Sponsored by: Li Y, Ren T, Zhang W, Chen K “hollow agreements” should be identi- Foodborne Illness Risk in Regulatory Emerging Nanoscale Materials and East Tennessee State University fied and the best suited practical forms Analysis Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty of alignment actions proposed . Astill GM Groups Sponsored by: Economic Research Service, USDA Economics and Benefits Analysis Panelists: Specialty Group Fred Petit, ANL, USA; Duane Verner, ANL, Sponsored by: USA; Aleksandar Jovanović, EU-VRi, Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Germany; Marie Valentine Florin, IRGC, Group Switzerland; Igor Linkov, USACE, USA; Knut Øien, EU-VRi, Germany

Sponsored by: Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group

42 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K Salon 1 W1-F Roundtable: Conflict of W1-G Applied Risk Managment: W1-H Miscellaneous - Foundations W1-I Exposure, Hazard and W1-J Roundtable: Challenges Interest and Bias in Conducting Monitoring, Statistical Methods, Chair: Myriam Merad Risk Assessment: Putting in Communicating the Research and Risk Assessments: Metrics and Communication Exposure Back in the Process Results of Public Health 8:30 AM W1-H.1 Views from Multiple Perspectives Chair: Willy Roed Co-chairs: Patricia Nance, Debra Kaden Benefit-risk Assessments Normal Chaos in Managing Risks – Chair: Jacqueline Patterson Chair: Elisabetta Lambertini 8:30 AM W1-G.1 Dealing with Complex Processes 8:30 AM W1-I.1 Charges or claims of conflict of interest Real-Time Monitoring Tools and Risk Lauder M, Marynissen H, Summers T* Hazard vs . Risk: Blurring of the Lines Benefit-risk assessment (BRA), or risk-benefit (COI) are made with increasing frequency in Based Regulatory Oversight - The Antwerp Management School, University Kaden DA assessment, is an emerging tool in public health . Regulatory bodies, industry, and the field of risk assessment. Concerns are Internet of Things Case Study of Maryland Ramboll Environ raised regarding the potential for employ- consumers are realizing more and more that Mangalam S, Lal Das P unilateral focus on only risks or benefits asso- ment, associations, or funding sources to 8:50 AM W1-H.2 8:50 AM W1-I.2 interfere with the ability of a scientist to PRISM Institute ciated with a certain drug, medical procedure, Is Hazard Identification a Scientific Chemical Hazard Assessment Tools for or food product is insufficient, and decisions objectively conduct or interpret studies, or Process? Recent Evaluations of serve on peer review or advisory panels . 8:50 AM W1-G.2 Identification of Chemicals of Concern. need to balance adverse and beneficial health Panelists will reflect upon COI and potential Development and Implementation of a Glyphosate Suggest Room for Whittaker MH effects. However, results from BRAs can be Interpretation . quite complex to communicate to decision for bias that could impact their profes- Risk-Informed Monitoring Program for ToxServices LLC sional work and how one might mitigate the Saltstone Disposal Facility De Roos AJ makers and the public . For instance, risk or manage biases and COI . Speakers will 9:10 AM W1-I.2 and benefit metrics vary in complexity, from Pinkston KE, Ridge AC* Dornsife School of Public Health at incidence of illness to integrated measures address questions such as: How are affili- Drexel University Global Trends in Risk Assessment in ation and funding source viewed when US Nuclear Regulatory Commission such as disability adjusted life years . An Pesticide Regulation intervention may reduce risk in one popula- evaluating potential conflicts of interest 9:10 AM W1-G.3 9:10 AM W1-H.4 and bias? How might the source of funding Kelly ID, Ryan NM tion but increases it in another . Uncertainty The Deepwater Horizon Disaster: Data and variability in inputs and outputs are also influence study design, reporting of data, Risk Evaluation in Industrial Property Bayer Crop Science challenging to communicate . Consumers also and interpretation? How can concerns insurance Based on Fuzzy ANP and and Causality from the Investigation tend to perceive risks and benefits differently, regarding COI and bias be managed for Fuzzy TOPSIS Reports Revisited through Ontologies 9:30 AM W1-I.4 Eude T, Gangemi A, Travadel S, Guarnieri which affects how information needs to be peer review and advisory panels, and Sheikh Hassani N Risk, Hazard, Precaution, and Adaptive conveyed . Communication also plays a key journal reviewers, editors, and publishers? Akdeniz University F Policy Learning role in the development of BRAs . By their Are there ways to minimize bias and COI MINES ParisTech, PSL - Research Wiener JB multidisciplinary nature, BRAs bring together impacts? How do we deal with publication 9:30 AM W1-G.4 University France and Université Paris Duke University a diverse range of experts such as epidemiolo- bias? It is important to recognize possible Updating the Tool-Box for Risk Nord France, ISTC-CNR Italy gists, modelers, toxicologists, microbiologists, sources of COI and bias and develop and economists who must communicate Management - A Practical Case Study Sponsored by: ways to mitigate the potential effects. This 9:30 AM W1-H.5 effectively with risk-benefit managers. The roundtable will provide an opportunity Røvang LB, Gravdal T, Bersaas J Exposure Assessment Specialty Group Differences Between Experts and goal of this round table is to bring together for participants to discuss openly issues Gassco AS BRA professionals from different health around conflicts and how COI and bias Laypeople: Risk Prioritization in the disciplines to discuss challenges and strate- might affect scientists’ work, as well as their Sponsored by: Food Domain Using Deliberative and gies to improve the communication of BRA integrity and credibility . Applied Risk Managment Specialty Survey Methods results to the public and decision makers . Panelists will provide a brief overview of their Panelists: Group Siegrist M, Hübner P, Hartmann C work, difficulties they face in communicating Richard Becker, American Chemistry ETH Zürich with managers and the public, and lessons Council; Kevin Elliott, Michigan State learned . The discussion will be summarized University; Elaine Faustman, University Sponsored by: in a manuscript that could potentially be of Washington; Rita Schoeny, US Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis submitted to Risk Analysis . Environmental Protection Agency (retired); Specialty Group Kun Don (Sue) Yi, Syngenta Crop Protection Panelists: Richard Forshee, FDA Center for Biologics Moderator: Evaluation and Research (CBER); Maarten Jacqueline Patterson, Risk Science Center, Nauta, Food DTU (Technical University of University of Cincinnati Denmark); Igor Linkov, U .S . Army Engineer Research and Development Center; William Sponsored by: Hallman, Rutgers University Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Specialty Group Sponsored by: Risk Communication Specialty Group 2017 Final Program 43 Wednesday

8:30 AM – 10:10 AM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:10 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D W1-K Risk Communication at W2-A Symposium: Burden of W2-B Roundtable: W2-C Risk Analysis for W2-D Roundtable: SRA Home and the Workplace Disease from Environmental Decentralization: What Might System Risk Analysis Policy Forum and SRA Nano Chair: Robyn Wilson Hazards in the Home and It Mean for Risk Governance? Chair: Quahyan Zhu Safety Cluster Efforts Community: Why? How? Chair: Sandra Hoffmann Chair: Igor Linkov 8:30 AM W1-K.1 What? So What? 10:30 AM W2-C.1 Barriers to Private Well and Septic The U .S ,. the E U. ., and the U .K ., among How Resilience Analytics Addresses On March 2017, the Society for Risk Chair: Kevin Brand Management in Under-Served others, are all seeing demand for Several Participants Disrupting Analysis hosted a Policy Forum entitled Communities: An Analysis of 10:30 AM W2-A.1 greater decentralization of governance . Priorities for Infrastructure Systems “Risk Governance for Key Enabling What might this mean for risk gover- Homeowner Decision Making An Overview of Estimating the Almutairi A, Andrews D*, Lambert JH Technologies ”. The Policy Forum nance in particular? There is a suite of Fizer C, MacDonald-Gibson J, Bruine Environmental Burden of Disease in University of Virginia sought to foster discussion of current issues that arise in considering the most de Bruin W Ontario, Canada initiatives that are centered on refining effective location of governance, e.g., 10:50 AM W2-C.2 University of North Carolina Greco SL, Kim JH, MacIntyre E, Copes R the risk governance of emerging uniformity vs . variation, legal authority Development of an Indicator Set for technologies through the integration of Public Health Ontario 8:50 AM W1-K.2 to act, administrative competence Resilience Quantification of Electricity traditional risk analytic tools alongside New Mental Modeling TechnologyTM 10:50 AM W2-A.2 at each level, race to the bottom, supply considerations of social and economic cross-jurisdiction “leakage,” inter- Adds Capability to Risk Reducing and Estimating the Burden of Foodborne Gasser P, Suter J, Cinelli M, Lustenberger concerns . Further, the Forum drove jurisdictional externalities (national or Life Saving Risk Communication and Waterborne Illness in Ontario P, Wansub K, Spada M, Burgherr P, discussion on various emerging global public goods) . This Roundtable is Vink D, Wood MD Kim JH, Greco SL, Copes R Hirschberg S, Stojadinovic B technology options and process, a discussion aimed at identifying issues including nanotechnology, industrial Crossroad Communications Inc. Public Health Ontario Singapore-ETH Centre that risk analysts need to think about and medical biotechnology, synthetic with increased interest in decentralized 9:10 AM W1-K.3 11:10 AM W2-A.3 11:10 AM W2-C.3 biology, advanced materials, and governance . Linking Heuristic-systematic Population Health Impact Estimates: Optimal Checkpointing of Fault advanced manufacturing technologies . Processing to Adoption of Behavior Unplugged Tolerant Systems Subject to Correlated This roundtable will reflect discussion Moderator: Failure Yang S Brand KP, Lin Z raised from the Policy Forum related Sandra Hoffmann (USDA Economic to emerging technologies, and will University of Wisconsin-Madison University of Ottawa Bentolhoda Jafary BJ, Lance Fiondella Research Service) LF also include insight from recent efforts 9:30 AM W1-K.4 11:30 AM W2-A.4 University of Massachusetts Dartmouth from the Society for Risk Analysis’ Effects of Using Indoor Air Quality Panelists: Nano Safety Cluster on the subject of Communicating the Results of an Jonathan Wiener, Duke University, Sensors on Perceptions and Environmental Health Burden to 11:30 AM W2-C.4 decision tools to inform nanomaterial Behaviors: Pittsburgh Empowerment School of Law; Alison Cullen, University Factored Markov Game Theory for governance . Decision-makers, the Public, and the of Washington, Evans School of Lending Library Study Media Secure and Resilient Infrastructure Public Policy; John Graham, Indiana Networks Panelists: Wong-Parodi G, Dias B, Taylor M Copes R University School of Environmental Igor Linkov (US Army Corps of Carnegie Mellon University Public Health Ontario and Public Affairs; Regine Paul, Huang L, Chen J, Zhu Q* New York University Engineers), Jennifer Kuzma (North 9:50 AM W1-K.5 Bielefeld University, Sociology, Law Carolina State University), Treye Sponsored by: and Society Unit; Ragnar Löfstedt, Exploring Concepts of Risk and 11:50 AM W2-C.5 Thomas (Consumer Product Safety Economics and Benefits Analysis King’s College London, Centre for Risk Safety in a University Setting Through Resilience of Food, Energy, and Water Commission, USA), Marie-Valentine Specialty Group Management PhotoVoice Infrastructure for Coastal Cities and Florin (International Risk Governance Council, Switzerland), Benjamin Trump Jardine CG, Cooper A Sponsored by: Displaced Populations (US Army Corps of Engineers) University of the Fraser Valley, Economics and Benefits Analysis Hassler ML, Collier ZA, Bier V, Lambert JH University of Alberta Specialty Group University of Virginia Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Emerging Nanoscale Materials Risk Communication Specialty Group Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Specialty Group Group

44 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM Salon E Salon FG Salon H Salon J Salon K W2-E Cyber and Game Theory W2-F Interdependent W2-G Applied Risk Management: W2-H Foundational Issues W2-I Roundtable: Embracing Chair: Diane Henshel Infrastructure Systems Three Completely Different Ways in Risk Analysis III Chemical Exposure Science for Co-chairs: Allison Reilly, Hiba Baroud to Manage Natural Hazard Risks Chair: Seth Guikema Effective Public Health Protection 10:30 AM W2-E.1 Chair: Cameron MacKenzie Moderators: Carrie Fleming, Expert Elicitation of Cyber Security 10:30 AM W2-F.1 10:30 AM W2-H.1 Annette Guiseppi-Elie Experts: What is Cyber Security Risk? Disruptions of Emergent and Future 10:30 AM W2-G.2 Core Subjects and Principles of Risk The human health risk assessment paradigm Henshel DS, Cains MG, Taber DL, King ZM Conditions in Advanced Logistics Storm Surge-based Flood Risk Analysis is changing and one important aspect of this Indiana University, Bloomington Systems in Coastal Louisiana: Impacts of Aven T is the focus upon the exposure element of risk Thorisson H, Lambert JH Louisiana’s 2017 Coastal Master University of Stavanger, Norway assessments . To date, the greater weight has 10:50 AM W2-E.2 University of Virginia Plan and Methods for Uncertainty generally been on hazard in the risk assessment Cyber Risk Analysis for a Smart Grid: Propagation 10:50 AM W2-H.2 process, with exposure being considered How Smart is Smart Enough? A Multi- 10:50 AM W2-F.2 retrospectively . The result is the expenditure Johnson DR, Fischbach JR, Kuhn K Quantitative Risk Modeling and of considerable time, effort and resource on Armed Bandit Approach to Cyber Transportation Network Vulnerability Purdue University, RAND Corporation Management of Interdependent acquiring hazard information that ultimately Security Investment Assessment Using Dynamic Traffic Complex Systems of Systems is not always required to reach conclusions Smith MD, Pate-Cornell ME* Simulation 10:50 AM W2-G.3 Haimes YY on the safety of a chemical . Scientists have Stanford University Shekar V, Fiondella L, Halappanavar M, Quantitative Risk Analysis in a Multirisk been working to develop exposure and risk University of Virginia assessment methods and tools to change Chatterjee S Scenario of Natural Hazards 11:10 AM W2-E.3 this paradigm, however a limiting factor is University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Bronfman NC, Cisternas PC*, Gonzalez D 11:10 AM W2-H.3 that exposure assessments are specific to the Cyber Attack Risk Evaluation using a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Universidad Andres Bello, National What is an Effect? chemical use pattern/scenario and this can Stochastic Epidemiological Framework Research Center for Integrated Natural Cox LA lead to ‘silos’ of approaches and knowledge in different sectors. This Roundtable aims to Alexeev A, Henshel DS, Agarwal V, Cains 11:10 AM W2-F.3 Disaster Management Cox Associates, University of Colorado MG Ontology-based Approach to bring together different sectors (agrochemicals, consumer products, industrial chemicals) Indiana University Modeling Interdependency of Critical 11:10 AM W2-G.4 11:30 AM W2-H.4 and Regulators who need exposure data, and Infrastructure Learning from Imbalanced Data Sets for Concepts and Connections, Choices leverage approaches across these sectors . 11:30 AM W2-E.4 Yan JY Estimating Power Outages and Conundrums: The Boundary Thought-starters (5 mins each) will be Integrating Defenders and Attackers ETH Zürich Kabir E, Guikema S Between What is Inside and What is presented and charge questions will be consid- into Cyber Security Risk Models University of Michigan Outside a Risk Assessment ered by the Panel and the audience, aiming to Agarwal V, Henshel DS, Alexeev A, 11:30 AM W2-F.4 Goble R identify key areas/topics/gaps that should be considered further: Cains MG* Risk Reduction Assessment of Sponsored by: Clark University Indiana University Innovative Solutions to Interdependent Applied Risk Managment Specialty 1. Advancing Exposure’s Profile in Providing Cascading Infrastructure Failures the Context For Toxicity Testing and Risk Group Sponsored by: Assessment – Annette Guiseppi-Elie, US EPA Sponsored by: Zimmerman R Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis National Exposure Research Laboratory, ORD Security and Defense Specialty Group New York University Specialty Group 2 . Meeting FDA needs for data on dietary exposures to food contaminants – Judith Sponsored by: Spungen, Food and Drug Administration Engineering & Infrastructure Specialty 3 . What needs to change in the agrochemical Group industry? – Carrie Fleming, Dow AgroSciences 4 . Globalizing Chemical Exposure Models – Rosemary Zaleski, ExxonMobil 5 . Emerging Opportunities and Challenges for Human Exposure Assessment – Mike Dellarco, NIH This Roundtable aims to provide a forum for scientists to discuss recent advances in the area of exposure assessment for chemicals . .

Sponsored by: Exposure Assessment Specialty Group

2017 Final Program 45 Wednesday

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM 10:30 AM – 12:10 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A Salon B Salon C W2-J Symposium: The Risk of W2-K Risk Communication and W3-A Symposium: From W3-B Roundtable: Science W3-C Atlas Shrugged: Citizen Opposition: Tools to Foster Severe/Extreme Weather Regulating to Communicating and Policy at the 2019 Fifth Geospatial Decision Analysis Public Participation with and Chair: Gina Eosco Food Safety Risks, Costs, World Congress on Risk Chair: Michelle Hamilton Acceptance of Energy Policy Issues and Benefits: PractitionersTM Chair: James H. Lambert 10:30 AM W2-K.1 1:30 PM W3-C.2 Chair: Marilou Jobin Challenges and Solutions Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Integrating Geospatial Information in Chair: Aliya Sassi 10:30 AM W2-J.1 Following Exposure to a Major Natural Fifth World Congress on Risk will be Network Modeling for Prepositioning Are Decision Support Systems Practical Disaster: The 2013 Calgary Flood 1:30 PM W3-A.1 in Cape Town, South Africa, on May Supplies Under Extreme-event Tools for Public Participation? Insights Tanner A, Arvai J Sanitary Transportation of Food: 6-8, 2019 . The SRA World Congresses Conditions from Tracing Laypeople’s Decision University of British Columbia, University Examining Industry Practices and have convened in Singapore (2015), Resurreccion JZ, Blanco AB, Santos JR, Processes Regarding the Future Energy of Michigan the Costs and Benefits of the FSMA Sydney (2012), Guadalajara (2008), and Bangate JM Portfolio Regulatory Requirements Brussels (2003) . With an overall theme University of the Philippines-Diliman, 10:50 AM W2-K.2 Jobin M, Visschers VHM, van Vliet OPR, Lange R, Sassi A Development and Resilience, the Fifth The George Washington University Siegrist M Effect of Risk and Protective Decision World Congress will feature topics U.S. Food and Drug Administration 1:50 PM W3-C.3 ETH Zürich Aids on Flood Preparation in within and across all SRA specialty Vulnerable Communities 1:50 PM W3-A.2 groups as well as latest interests for Geospatial Decision Analysis for 10:50 AM W2-J.2 Wong-Parodi G, Fischhoff B,Strauss B Delivery of Safe Food to Rural and the Africa region and worldwide . Military Base Camp Siting Thinking Critically About Public Carnegie Mellon University, Climate Frontier Areas: Examination of Gaps Participants will come from universi- Cegan JC Participation in Renewable Energy Central and Constraints ties, consulting, industry, government, US Army Corps of Engineers Decisions: Insights from the First U .S . Sertkaya A, Ackerley N, Ertis D*, Grayson and military . Half-day and full-day 11:10 AM W2-K.3 2:10 PM W3-C.4 Offshore Wind Development P, Vardon P, Sassi A continuing education workshops will Weather Forecasters’ Use of Ensemble- complement the technical program A Regional Risk and Vulnerability Bidwell D, Dwyer J Eastern Research Group, Inc., U.S. Food based Uncertainty Information for (plenaries, roundtables, symposia, Assessment with Multiple Criteria University of Rhode Island and Drug Administration Communicating Risks of Extreme individual abstracts) . Discussion Decision Analysis to Support Evidence- 11:10 AM W2-J.3 weather 2:10 PM W3-A.3 and audience participation in this Based Investment Public Participation in Energy Demuth JL, Morss RE, Jankov I, The Economic Impact of the United Roundtable will identify and lead Hamilton M, Morath D, Curran R, Transitions: What We Can Learn Alexander C, Alcott T, Nietfeld D, Jenson States Department of Agriculture’s discussion of key concepts that will Hughey E, Green J, Batzel J About Public Attitudes from Diverse T Environmental Testing Requirements distinguish the 2019 event, including a CCRi Engagement Methods National Center for Atmospheric to Reduce the Incidence of Listeria characterization of abstracts that were Demski C, Spence A, Pidgeon N Research Monocytogenes in Ready-to-Eat Meat submitted in the early window closing Sponsored by: December 1, 2017 . Cardiff University, University of and Poultry Products Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty 11:30 AM W2-K.4 Nottingham Minor T, Parrett M* Group Differing Perceptions of Hurricanes Panelists: U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. and Nor’easters Bilal Ayyub, Robin Cantor, Alison 11:30 AM W2-J.4 Food and Drug Administration Governance of Renewable Energy Cuite CL, Hallman WK, Shwom RL, Cullen, Mary Gulumian, Sasa Infrastructure Planning . Potentials for Demuth J, Morss R 2:30 PM W3-A.4 Jovanovic, Charlie Menzie, Myriam Public Participation Rutgers University FDA’s Internal Message Testing Merad, Patricia Nance, Ortwin Renn, Schweizer PJ Network: An Innovative Approach to Jo Anne Shatkin 11:50 AM W2-K.5 Institute for Advanced Sustainability Risk Communication Communicating Earthquake Hazard Sponsored by: Studies Potsdam Weinberg J, Lappin B Risk and Development Specialty Group Marti M, Stauffacher M U.S. Food and Drug Administration Sponsored by: ETH Zürich Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group Sponsored by: Sponsored by: Economics and Benefits Analysis RIsk Communication Specialty Group Specialty Group and Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis

46 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM Salon D Salon E Salon FG Salon H Salon J W3-D Hazard-Specific W3-E Symposium: Emerging W3-F Symposium: W3-G Roundtable: Does EPAs W3-H Understanding Antimicrobial Risk Assessment Issues in Global Catastrophic Integrated Research for Risk Practices Follow its Resistance as a Global Concern Chair: Charles Redinger Risks and Development Disaster Risk Reduction Amended TSCA Pledges? Co-chairs: Abani Pradhan, Jade Mitchell Chair: Dori Stiefel Chair: Ann Bostrom Chair: Steve Gibb 1:30 PM W3-D.1 1:30 PM W3-H.1 Cancer Risk Associated with Exposure 1:30 PM W3-E.1 1:30 PM W3-F.1 Under the June 2016 amendments to A Theoretical Approach to Network to Bitumen and Bitumen Fumes: Anticipating the Unintended Enabling integrated Disaster Risk the Toxic Substances Control Act, EPA Modeling of Antibiotic Resistance An Updated Systematic Review and Consequences of Science and Research with the RAPID facility has pledged to use broadly accepted Keisler M, Foran C, Keisler J*, Linkov I Meta-Analysis Technology Wartman JB, Berman J*, Olsen M, Miles agency risk assessment guidance and University of Massachusetts Amherst Mundt KA, Dell L, Crawford L, Sax S*, Tonn BE, Stiefel D* S, Irish J, Gurley K, Bostrom A, Lowes L methods when evaluating new and Boffetta P University of Tennessee University of Washington existing chemicals . It has sought public 1:50 PM W3-H.2 Ramboll Environ comment on key science terms such Antibiotic-Resistant Staphylococcus 1:50 PM W3-E.2 1:50 PM W3-F.2 as weight of evidence and best avail- Aureus Transmission from Hog Farms 1:50 PM W3-D.2 Quantifying Long-Term Severity Urban Ecological Risk Assessment able science . However, pledges and to Humans: Bayesian Network Risk Management of Pesticides and Their Baum SD Based on Green Infrastructure Theory the actions that follow are not always Assessment Models Containers in a Irrigation District in Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Zheng H, Xu L consistent . This session will tap the MacDonald-Gibson J, George A Yucatan, Mexico: Risk Factors for Beijing Normal University expertise of consultants, academics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Human Health 2:10 PM W3-E.3 editors and others in discussing how Hill Flores-Serrano RM, Pérez-Casimiro G, Recent Advances in Feeding the Earth 2:10 PM W3-F.3 EPA’s risk choices seem to be in-, or Álvarez-Florentino E, Ramírez-González in Global Catastrophes Engaging Communities in Tsunami out-of-line with past agency practices . 2:10 PM W3-H.3 A, Ruiz-Piña HA, Rendón-Von Osten J, Denkenberger DC, Taylor AR, Black R, Risk Planning with Probabilistic Hazard In particular, the session will address Comparative Exposure Assessment Aké-López R, Flores-Guido JS Pearce JM Information susceptible subpopulations such as of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Tennessee State University Grant A, Abramson D, Bostrom A, children and workers and how they are through Meat Consumption México, Universidad Autónoma de Gonzales F, Leveque R, Greenfield M accounted for . Evers EG, Pielaat A, Smid JH, van Yucatán, Universidad Autónoma de Sponsored by: University of Washington Duijkeren E, Vennemann FBC, Wijnands Campeche Risk and Development and Security and Panelists: LM, Chardon JE Defense Specialty Groups 2:30 PM W3-F.4 Steve Gibb, Bloomberg BNA; Tracey RIVM The Netherlands 2:10 PM W3-D.3 Earthquake Risk Experiences, Woodruff, UCSF; Jack Fowle, Science Evaluation of Risk of Occupational Expectations, Early Warnings, Planning, to Inform; Tom Burke, Johns Hopkins 2:30 PM W3-H.4 Injuries and Hearing Loss Among and Preparedness in Washington State (invited) . Toward Preventing a Doomsday Informal Electronic Waste Recyclers Bostrom A, Ahn A, Vidale J, Abramson D Pandemic Sponsored by: Langeland AL, Neitzel RL, Nambunmee University of Washington Macal CM, MacDonell MM, Mishra SK, K, Sayler SK Applied Risk Management Specialty Trail JB, Chang YS, Cooke RM Group University of Michigan, Mae Fah Luang Sponsored by: Argonne National Laboratory, Resources University Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty for the Future Group 2:30 PM W3-D.4 Sponsored by: Risk Assessment of Combined Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Group Exposure to Multiple Organophosphorus Pesticides Chang BS, Chen YJ, Chuang YC, Lin JW, Wu KY, Ho WC, Chiang SY* China Medical University

Sponsored by: Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Group

2017 Final Program 47 Wednesday

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 Salon A Salon B W3-I PAHs & Related Compounds: W3-J Symposium: To Vape or Not W3-K Symposium: Reshaping Risk W4-A Frontiers in Benefit- W4-B Climate Change Exposure and Dose-Response To Vape: Risks of E-cigarette Use Assessment - New Governance Cost and Risk Analysis Communication II Chair: Margaret Pratt Chair: Sara Henry Tools for Emerging Technologies Chair: Sandra Hoffmann Chair: Christopher Clarke Co-chairs: Gary Marchant, 1:30 PM W3-I.1 1:30 PM W3-J.1 3:30 PM W4-A.1 3:30 PM W4-B.1 Jonathan Wiener Comparative Dietary Exposure Health Effects Associated with Individual and Social Discount Rates in Public Support for the Climate Change Assessment of Selected Heterocyclic E-cigarettes in Vulnerable Populations 1:30 PM W3-K.1 Policy Analysis Policies, from Party Support Point of Amines and Polycyclic Aromatic Zelikoff JT,Lauterstein D, Gordon T Instrument Choice for Adaptive Broughel J View Hydrocarbons through Meat and Bread New York University School of Medicine Regulation of Emerging Technologies Mercatus Center at George Mason Aoyagi M Consumption in the United States Wiener JB, Bennear LS University, Antonin Scalia Law School National Institute for Environmental Pouzou JG, Costard S, Zagmutt FJ 1:50 PM W3-J.2 Duke University Studies EpiX Analytics Getting a “Flavor” for Cardiovascular 3:50 PM W4-A.3 Effects of New and Emerging Tobacco 1:50 PM W3-K.2 A New Method of Modeling and 3:50 PM W4-B.2 1:50 PM W3-I.2 Products Codes of Conduct and Private Simulating Hurricane Losses Does Learning about Carbon Dioxide The Influence of Polycyclic Aromatic Conklin DJ Standards for Governing Autonomous Xian SY, Lin N, Chavas D, Oppenheimer Removal (CDR) Strategies Alter Support Hydrocarbons on Lung Function University of Louisville Systems M for Climate Mitigation? The Role of in a Representative Sample of the Marchant GE Princeton University, Purdue University Tradeoffs, Trust in Technology, and Canadian Population 2:10 PM W3-J.3 Arizona State University Beliefs about Tampering with Nature Cakmak S, Hebbern C, Cakmak JD, Human Studies to Determine the 4:10 PM W4-A.4 Campbell-Arvai VEA, Hart PS, Raimi KT, Dales ED Effects of Flavored E-cigarettes on 2:10 PM W3-K.4 Produce Irrigated with Various Types Wolsje KS Government of Canada Respiratory Immune Responses Towards Best Practices Governing Use of Nontraditional Water: Detecting University of Michigan Jaspers I of “Genomics” in Civil Litigation Consumer Preferences through Cross- 2:10 PM W3-I.3 University of North Carolina at Chapel Marchant GE, Hartley KT*, Stevens YA Regional Field Experiments 4:10 PM W4-B.3 Benzo(a)pyrene Toxicity Value Hill LSP Group LLC Ellis SF, Kecinski M, Messer KD Challenges in Communicating the Updates: Implications for Human University of Delaware Slow Onset Crisis of Climate Change Health Risk Assessment 2:30 PM W3-J.4 Sponsored by: Hathaway JH Chien J, Lemay JC Quantitative Risk Assessment Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group Sponsored by: George Mason University Gradient of Tobacco Related Toxicants: Economics and Benefits Analysis Comparisons between Combusted Specialty Group and Society for Benefit- 4:30 PM W4-B.4 2:30 PM W3-I.4 and Heated Tobacco Products . Cost Analysis The Unquestioned Assumption of Alternative Methods for Assessing Meredith C, Fiebelkorn SA Equivalence in Farmer Perceptions of Human Health Risks from Exposure to British American Tobacco Weather and Climate Change Risks Polycyclic Aromatic Compounds Findlater KM, Kandlikar K, Satterfield T, Chrostowski PC Sponsored by: Donner SD CPF Associates, Inc. Dose Response and Risk, Policy & Law University of British Columbia Specialty Groups Sponsored by: 4:50 PM W4-B.5 Dose Response and Exposure Effectiveness of a Serious Game Assessment Specialty Groups to Encourage Adequate Protective Behaviour in Case of a Freight Train Accident Involving Hazardous chemicals Kuttschreuter M, Jong-Kamphuis N University of Twente

Sponsored by: Risk Communications Specialty Group

48 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Wednesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM Salon C Salon D Salon E Salon FG Salon H W4-C Human Factors in W4-D Looking Across Borders W4-E Complex Models to W4-F Infrastructure: Climate W4-G Symposium: Decision Making at Risk Assessment Policies Solve Complex Problems Changes and Extreme Events Interdisciplinary Perspectives Chair: Sara Goto Chair: TBD Chair: Amanda Bailey Chair: Benjamin Rachunok on Systemic Risks Chair: Pia-Johanna Schweizer 3:30 PM W4-C.1 3:30 PM W4-D.1 3:30 PM W4-E.1 3:30 PM W4-F.1 Examining the Effects of Objective Risks Comparing Environmental Risk Evaluation of Risk Models for the Hurricane Power Outage Prediction 3:30 PM W4-G.1 and Community Resilience on Risk Regulations in China and the United Holistic Integration of Social Science with Feature Selection Approaches Governance of Systemic Risks: Perceptions at the County Level in the States Metrics into Watershed-Scale Risk Shashaani S, Guikema SD Challenges and Potential Solutions U .S . Gulf Coast: An Innovative Approach Li H, Xu J Assessment Umiversity of Michigan Schweizer PJ Shao W, Gardezi M, Xian S College of Environmental Sciences and Cains MG, Henshel DS, Landis WG Institute for Advanced Sustainability Auburn University at Montgomery Engineering, Peking University Indiana University 3:50 PM W4-F.2 Studies Potsdam Characterising and Predicting the 3:50 PM W4-C.2 3:50 PM W4-D.2 3:50 PM W4-E.2 Robustness of Coupled Power-law 3:50 PM W4-G.2 The Influence of Generational How Command-and-control System Quantitative Tools for Linking Adverse Networks Risk and Resilience in Complex Differences on Loss Aversion and Risk Works in China’s Environmental Outcome Pathways with Process Johnson CA, Flage R, Guikema SD Systems: Review of Concepts and Taking Protection: An Empirical Study of Two Models: Bayesian Relative Risk University of Stavanger, University of Assessment Methods Goto SK, Arvai JL Control Zones Policy of China Networks Michigan Linkov I, Madchese D, Fox-Lent C, Trump University of Michigan Fan SW Von Stackelberg KE, Chu V, Mitchell C, B Central University of Finance and Wallis L, Stark J, Landis W 4:10 PM W4-F.3 US Army Engineer Research and 4:30 PM W4-C.4 Economics Harvard Center for Health and the Building Resilience into the Water Development Center Using Role-play to Explore Energy Global Environment Treatment Process Under a Changing Perceptions in the US and UK 4:10 PM W4-D.3 Climate 4:10 PM W4-G.3 Thomas M, Pidgeon N*, Partridge T, Radiation Risk in Evacuation and 4:10 PM W4-E.3 Camp JS, Hoover PA Re-ordering Risk and Uncertainty: Harthorn BH Reoccupation Decision Making Urban Agglomeration Nitrogen Vanderbilt University Implications for Cosmopolitan Risk Cardiff University, University of California Braley GS Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Governance Santa Barbara Colorado State University Risk Information Model in Pearl River 4:30 PM W4-F.4 Klinke A Delta Risk Analysis Methods in Resilience University of Newfoundland 4:50 PM W4-C.5 4:30 PM W4-D.4 Dong Y, Xu L Modeling: An Overview of Homeland Understanding Attitudes Towards Lead Cleanups at Superfund Sites Beijing Normal University Security Applications 4:30 PM W4-G.4 Flood Risk with Prospect Theory Julias C Baroud H Risk Governance and the Crisis of Royal A CDM Smith 4:30 PM W4-E.4 Vanderbilt University Expertise Resources for the Future Mental Models of Climate Change and Wong CML Sponsored by: Food Security in Northwest Ghana 4:50 PM W4-F.5 University of Luxembourg Sponsored by: Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group Wood AL Homogeneous-Use Infrastructure Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty North Carolina State University Modeling 4:50 PM W4-G.5 Group Rachunok BA, Nateghi R Dealing with Complexity and Sponsored by: Purdue University Connectivity: The Challenge of Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Systemix Risks Group Sponsored by: Renn OR, Jaeger C, Lucas K Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Institute for Advanced Sustainability Group Studies (IASS)

Sponsored by: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Specialty Group

2017 Final Program 49 Wednesday

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM Salon J Salon K Salon 1 Salon 2 W4-H Symposium: Incorporating W4-I Ambient and Occupational W4-J Symposium: Risk W4-K Symposium: Risk Meets System Resilience Concept in Airborne Hazards Assessment in Tobacco Product Communication: A Fork in the Environmental Risk Analysis Chair: Katherine Walker Regulatory Decision Making Road or a Road Less Travelled? Chair: Zach Collier Co-chairs: Kristin Marano, Chair: Cami Ryan 3:30 PM W4-I.1 P. Robinan Gentry 3:30 PM W4-H.1 Case Study in Data Access and 3:30 PM W4-K.1 Facilitating Disaster Risk Reduction Reanalysis: Diesel Engine Exhaust and 3:30 PM W4-J.1 The Complexity of Risk: Implications for Through Community-based resilience Lung Cancer Mortality in the Diesel The State of the Science of QRA in Communication Building Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) Cohort Support of Different Tobacco Product Slovic P Huang T Using Alternative Exposure Estimates Submission Types University of Oregon National Cheng Kung University and Radon Adjustment Gentry PR McClellan RO, Chang ET, Lau EC, Van Ramboll Environ 3:50 PM W4-K.2 3:50 PM W4-H.2 Landingham C, Crump KS, Moolgavkar Monsanto’s Evolving Communication Spatial-temporal-frequency Manifold SH 3:50 PM W4-J.2 Strategy in the Age of Mass Information Analysis of Multipollutant Emission Toxicology and Human Health Risk Characterization of Inhalation Exposure Ryan C Variation and Sampling Analysis to Cigarette Smoke Monsanto Company Tai-Yi L, Ming-Che H*, Hwa-Lung Y Liu C, Marano K 3:50 PM W4-I.2 National Taiwan University RAI Services Company 4:10 PM W4-K.3 What Does the Current Unit Risk Communicating Real Risk in a Complex 4:10 PM W4-H.3 Estimate used for Diesel Particulate 4:10 PM W4-J.3 World Resilience, Population, and Economy: Matter Cancer Risk Calculations Chemical Mixture Human Health Risk Holsapple M Findings from a Simulation of Indicate for Worker and Environmental Assessment Methods Applicable to Michigan State University, CRIS Bits Reconstruction from 2011 Great East Health? the Evaluation of Complex Mixtures of Japan Earthquake Pagone F, Persky J Tobacco Smoke 4:30 PM W4-K.4 Maeda Y RHP Risk Management Inc. Teuschler LK The Language of Law: When Risk is Shizuoka University LK Teuschler & Associates Tried in the Court of Public Perception 4:10 PM W4-I.3 Schachtman N 4:30 PM W4-H.4 Commuter Exposure to Air Pollutants 4:30 PM W4-J.4 Schachtman Law Challenges and Uncertainties of During Transportation in Hong Kong Regulatory Perspective on the Environmental Risk Assessment with Lau AKH, Che WW, Li ZY, Frey HC Assessment of Tobacco Product Risk 4:50 PM W4-K.5 Respect to Emission Estimation The Hong Kong University of Science Yeager RP Understanding the Role of Trust in Risk Lee CH, Yu HL* and Technology, North Carolina State US FDA Perception National Taiwan University University Zaruk D Sponsored by: Odisee University College 4:30 PM W4-I.4 Sponsored by: Risk Policy and Law Specialty Group Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Approaches to Estimating the Burden Sponsored by: Specialty Group of Outdoor Air Pollution in Ontario Risk Comminicaton Specialty Group Greco SL, Kim JH, Copes R Public Health Ontario

Sponsored by: Dose Response, Exposure Assessment, Occupational Health & Safety, Economics & Benefits Analysis Specialty Groups

50 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Author Index

Ayyub B...... 30, 40 Beverly B...... 31 Britt J...... 25 Chabrelie AE...... 33 Conkling E...... 32 A Ayyub BM...... 24, 30, 31 Bhat V...... 30 Brody JG...... 27 Chaisson C...... 32 Cooke RM...... 47 Abdulla A...... 29, 36 Azeem M...... 33 Bhatt S...... 34 Bromfield KE...... 36 Chancey C...... 38 Cooper A...... 44 Abkowitz M...... 26, 36 Bhattacharya S...... 31 Brommesson P...... 34 Chan WC...... 31 Copes R...... 44, 50 Abouali M...... 29 Bidwell D...... 46 Bronfman NC...... 45 Chang BS...... 47 Corderi Novoa D...... 40 Abramson D...... 47 B Bier V...... 44 Brorby G...... 25 Chang ET...... 50 Corin C...... 36 Abramson MM...... 32 Babendreier JE...... 25 Bier VM...... 28 Brossard D...... 25, 33, 35 Chang PH...... 31, 33 Corr J...... 31 Ackerley N...... 46 Babich M...... 32 Biggs MB...... 32 Broughel J...... 48 Chang YS...... 23, 47 Costard S...... 48 Addington JA...... 29 Bailer JB...... 31 Binder AR...... 34 Brown J...... 27, 33 Chappell G...... 24, 31 Coutinho IBS...... 30 Agarwal V...... 45 Bailey A...... 30 Birkeland KW...... 30 Brown JT...... 28 Chardon JE...... 47 Cox J...... 33 Aguiar Filho A...... 32 Bailey L...... 30 Bjerga T...... 40 Brown L...... 31 Charlebois S...... 36 Cox K...... 30 Ahmad M...... 42 Bailey LA...... 33 Black P...... 30 Brown P...... 27 Chatterjee S...... 45 Cox LA...... 45 Ahn A...... 47 Bailey LB...... 36 Black R...... 47 Bruine de Bruin W...... 44 Chattopadhyay S...... 32 Cox-Ganser JM...... 37 Aiken D...... 23, 27 Bains M...... 35 Blanco AB...... 46 Bruss BC...... 24 Chavas D...... 48 Cragin DW...... 29 Aiken DV...... 39 Baker JE...... 36 Blessinger TD...... 31 Buckstaff .K ...... 40 Che WW...... 50 Crawford L...... 47 Akai K...... 34 Banan Z...... 32 Blue S...... 28 Bull L...... 31 Chen C...... 40 Crowe B...... 30 Aké-López R...... 47 Banarsee R...... 33 Boardmann RB...... 24 Buonagurio JE...... 37 Chen CY...... 41 Crowther KG...... 42 Akl S...... 25 Bandolin N...... 31, 34 Boffetta .P...... 47 Burgess M...... 33 Chen J...... 44 Crump KS...... 50 Al Ashram M...... 25 Bangate JM...... 46 Bogen KT...... 34 Burgherr P...... 44 Chen K...... 42 Cuite CL...... 46 Alberts E...... 40 Bare JL...... 32 Bois FY...... 34 Butler S...... 33 Chen L...... 42 Cummings CL...... 25, 35 Alcott T...... 46 Barlow CA...... 32 Bolson J...... 23 Butts SB...... 24 Chen PC...... 31 Cummins E...... 36 Alderson DL...... 28 Barnett J...... 39 Boor B...... 32 Butts SC...... 33 Chen Q...... 31 Curran R...... 46 Alexander C...... 46 Baroud H...... 26, 36, 40, 49 Borghoff ...... S 24 Bynum ML...... 40 Chen Y...... 24, 40 Curtis A...... 41 Alexeev A...... 39, 45 Barr C...... 30 Bornhorst G...... 33 Chen YJ...... 47 Czajkowski JR...... 26 Al Hajer K...... 25 Barreto TB...... 32 Bornstein K...... 29 Cheng C...... 29 Czop J...... 24 Allen BC...... 31 Barrett AM...... 28, 42 Boronow KE...... 27 C Chiang SY...... 32, 47 Al-Mamun MA...... 33 Bartrand TB...... 29 Borsella E...... 42 Cabrera C...... 39 Chien J...... 48 Almutairi A...... 44 Basu N...... 28 Borsuk ME...... 41 Cains MG...... 34, 45, 49 Chiger A...... 31, 32 D Álvarez-Florentino E...... 47 Bates ME...... 31 Bostrom A...... 47 Cakmak JD...... 48 Chiu WA...... 34 Dalaijamts C...... 34 Al Waheebi A...... 25 Batzel J...... 46 Bouder F...... 35 Cakmak S...... 48 Chosewood LC...... 33, 37 Dales ED...... 48 Amodeo DC...... 32 Baucum M...... 37 Boué G...... 36 Calazans B...... 30 Chou YJ...... 31 Davenport C...... 42 Anderson NA...... 26 Baum SD...... 47 Bourne K...... 41 Camacho-Ramos I...... 24 Chrostowski PC...... 48 Davidson GR...... 26 Andrews D...... 44 Bautista CC...... 39 Bouwknegt M...... 38 Camp J...... 36 Chu H...... 33, 34 Davidson R...... 32 Antignac JP...... 36 Beall L...... 34 Boyd A...... 27, 33 Camp JS...... 26, 49 Chu V...... 49 Davies SH...... 38 Aoki K...... 34 Beauchamp C...... 25 Boyd WA...... 29 Campbell-Arvai V...... 24 Chu YR...... 31, 33 Davis JA...... 29 Aoyagi M...... 48 Beck BD...... 30 Braley GS...... 49 Campbell-Arvai VEA...... 48 Chuang YC...... 30, 32, 33, 47 Dean KJ...... 29 Apt J...... 32 Beck M...... 40 Brame JA...... 40 Canjar HA...... 26 Chung R...... 30 Dearing J...... 33 Arguello B...... 40 Beck-Johnson L...... 34 Brand KP...... 44 Cao S...... 42 Cialone M...... 31 Decker D...... 39 Aros-Vera F...... 39 Beecher JA...... 38 Brandon N...... 38 Carley S...... 37 Cichocki JA...... 34 Decker DK...... 35 Arsenault J...... 36 Begum N...... 25 Brandon NV...... 38 Carotenuto AC...... 29 Cifuentes LA...... 39 Delaney D...... 36 Arvai J...... 38, 46 Behrendt A...... 26 Brassill NA...... 29 Carreras A...... 25 Cinelli M...... 44 Dell L...... 47 Arvai JL...... 49 Benighaus C...... 42 Bratasz £...... 24 Caskey S...... 29 Cisternas PC...... 45 Del Rio Vilas V...... 25 Arzuaga X...... 31 Bennear LS...... 48 Bratasz LB...... 24 Castellino A...... 30 Clarke CE...... 33 De Marcellis-Warin N...... 34 Ashton L...... 31 Bentolhoda Jafary BJ...... 44 Braydich-Stolle L...... 28 Catlin M...... 24 Codyre J...... 29 Demski C...... 29, 46 Astill GM...... 42 Berck P...... 31 Brian B...... 32 Cato C...... 28 Cohim E...... 30 Demuth J...... 46 Augspurger T...... 28 Berman J...... 32, 47 Brian C...... 32 Cawley M...... 29 Cole D...... 31 Demuth JL...... 46 Austin LA...... 30 Bersaas J...... 43 Bricker JD...... 24 Cegan J...... 35 Coleman ME...... 36 Deng L...... 25 Aven T...... 40, 45 Besley JC...... 33 Briggs NL...... 39 Cegan JC...... 46 Collier ZA...... 28, 44 Denkenberger DC...... 47 Briguglio S...... 32 Conklin DJ...... 48

2017 Final Program 51 Author Index

Dennis S...... 24, 36 Esquerre KP...... 32 Freeman J...... 24 Good DH...... 27 Hamilton M...... 46 Hotchkiss A...... 31 De Roos AJ...... 43 Esselman R...... 29 French-McCay D...... 33 Goodman JE...... 34 Hamm J...... 33 Houlihan J...... 31, 32 Dery JL...... 29 Eude T...... 43 Frey HC...... 29, 50 Gordon T...... 48 Hammitt JK...... 27 Howard B...... 30 DeYoung S...... 32 Evans JS...... 27 Fries M...... 32 Gorsich E...... 34 Haoran Z...... 42 Howard BE...... 29 Diamond G...... 33 Evers EG...... 47 Fueta PO...... 32 Goto SK...... 49 Harris M...... 31 Howard J...... 26 Dias B...... 44 Fujimura M...... 32 Gracie R...... 38 Harris MJ...... 28 Howarter JA...... 32 Diaz D...... 25 Graham JD...... 37 Hart PS...... 24, 33, 48 Howell EL...... 25, 35 Diola MBLD...... 39 F Grant A...... 47 Harthorn BH...... 49 Hsiao IL...... 32 Diola MD...... 32 Fall M...... 38 G Grant C...... 34 Hartley KT...... 48 Hsiao JL...... 32 Dionisio KL...... 38 Fanaselle W...... 36, 42 Galiardi M...... 34 Gravdal T...... 43 Hartmann C...... 43 Hsieh NH...... 34 Diskin K...... 32 Fan SW...... 49 Gallagher D...... 24 Gray G...... 31 Hartnett E...... 35, 40 Hsu LC...... 30 Dixon GN...... 33 Fang Y...... 36 Gallo SA...... 31 Gray GM...... 28 Harvey S...... 24, 31 Hu H...... 24, 31 Doepker C...... 25 Fares-Gusmao R...... 38 Galloway SM...... 29 Grayson P...... 46 Hassler ML...... 44 Huang J...... 34 Dong Y...... 49 Fazil A...... 38 Gangemi A...... 43 Greco SL...... 44, 50 Hathaway JH...... 48 Huang L...... 44 Donner SD...... 48 Feighner B...... 38 Ganin A...... 28 Green J...... 4 Hausken KH...... 40 Huang SH...... 33 Dotson GS...... 33, 37 Feiler T...... 29 Gardezi M...... 49 Greenberg GI...... 30, 32 Haws L...... 24 Huang SZ...... 30 Drasback K...... 32 Fellenor J...... 39 Garner E...... 38 Greene CW...... 32 Hay A...... 30 Huang T...... 50 Drew NM...... 37 Feng KR...... 23 Gasser P...... 44 Greene E...... 30 Hebbern C...... 48 Huang Y...... 29, 38 Duan X...... 42 Fernandes F...... 29 Gauthier J...... 35 Greenfield ...... M 47 Henderson R...... 25 Huang YC...... 32 Dubé EM...... 32 Ferretti V...... 37 Gaveleck AY...... 24 Grieger KD...... 42 Hennessy D...... 33 Hubbard H...... 38 Dubey JP...... 33 Ferrouillet C...... 36 Gavelek A...... 32 Griffiths. M...... 36 Henning C...... 29 Hubbard HF...... 38 Duffield .SM ...... 29 Ferson S...... 28 Gentry PR...... 50 Grohn YT...... 33 Henshel DS...... 34, 45, 49 Hübner P...... 43 Duffy .P ...... 30 Fiebelkorn SA...... 48 George A...... 47 Grulke C...... 29 Heres L...... 38 Hudson DW...... 38 Duncan D...... 37 Findlater KM...... 34, 48 Gernand JM...... 32 Guarnieri F...... 43 Hetherington S...... 26 Hughes B...... 30 Durant K...... 32 Finkel AM...... 28, 41 Gerst M...... 30 Guerrette ZN...... 32 Heyes A...... 38 Hughey E...... 46 Dusseault M...... 38 Finster M...... 23 Ghaedi H...... 26, 31 Guidotti TL...... 23 Hibbert K...... 34 Hwa-Lung Y...... 50 Dwyer J...... 46 Fiondella L...... 30, 31, 45 Ghoshal A...... 31 Guikema S...... 45 Higashino H...... 33 Fischbach JR...... 45 Gibbons C...... 31 Guikema SD...... 24, 26, Hilgard J...... 31 Fischhoff .B...... 46 Gift J...... 29 28, 32, 40, 49 Hirose A...... 30 I E Fizer C...... 44 Gill T...... 36 Guillou S...... 36 Hirschberg S...... 44 Ice L...... 38 Eames BK...... 34 Flage R...... 28, 49 Gillespie-Marthaler L...... 26, 36 Guney S...... 37 Hmielowski J...... 27 Ikarashi Y...... 34 Eberhard M...... 32 Fleischer JG...... 32 Gilmore EA...... 25 Gupta K...... 27, 35 Ho WC...... 31, 33, 47 Ikeda S...... 39 Ebisudani M...... 33 Flint C...... 33 Gilmore J...... 34 Gurian PL...... 29, 30 Hobbie K...... 29 Il’yasova D...... 33 Ede J...... 40 Flores-Guido JS...... 47 Ginsberg G...... 31 Gurley K...... 47 Hobbs JA...... 34 Imanaka IA...... 34 Ede JD...... 40 Flores-Serrano RM...... 47 Giordano R...... 23 Guskov A...... 30 Hoffman .M...... 35 Irish J...... 47 Edwards J...... 29 Florin MV...... 30, 36, 38 Giraud R...... 30 Gutierrez VV...... 32, 33 Hoffmann .S...... 27, 31 Isaacs KK...... 38 Edwards MA...... 38 Follansbee M...... 33 Gjorgiev B...... 24 Hoffman-Pennesi .D ...... 32 Ivanek R...... 24 Egeghy P...... 38 Foran C...... 47 Glen WG...... 38 Holley R...... 36 Eisenberg DA...... 28 Forsberg ND...... 31 Glisson S...... 31 H Hollick ND...... 29 Ekezie W...... 35 Forshee R...... 38 Goble R...... 45 Haegeli P...... 30 Holmes G...... 36 J Holsapple M...... 50 Elliott NE...... 33 Fortt A...... 32, 33 Goeden HM...... 32 Hagerman S...... 34 Jackson P...... 33 Holzhueter D...... 33 Ellis SF...... 48 Foster EJ...... 26 Goeringer LP...... 29 Haimes YY...... 45 Jacobus JA...... 32 Hong J...... 30 Elmontsri M...... 33 Fox-Lent C...... 31, 49 Gois LHB...... 30 Halappanavar M...... 45 Jaeger C...... 49 Hoogendoorn G...... 23 Enayaty FE...... 40 Fox MA...... 37 Goldberger J...... 25 Hall IS...... 26 Jamieson KH...... 25 Hoover MD...... 27 Eriguchi T...... 34 Fraas A...... 37 Goldstein RER...... 29 Hallman CN...... 34 Jankov I...... 46 Hoover PA...... 49 Ernst N...... 38 Fraas AG...... 37 Gonzales F...... 47 Hallman WK...... 25, 31, 46 Jardine CG...... 44 Horb E...... 30 Ertis D...... 39, 46 Francis R...... 30, 32 Gonzalez D...... 45 Halper SH...... 31 Jardine E...... 39 Hori T...... 40 Esola S...... 31 Franco LA...... 25 González-Ortega J...... 30 Hamilton KA...... 29 Jaspers I...... 48 Horng RL...... 32

52 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Author Index

Jedrychowski M...... 24 Kawamoto A...... 31 Kumara SMSP...... 34 Lin JW...... 47 Madasseri Payyappalli V...... 26 Minor T...... 46 Jenkins S...... 27 Kazemi R...... 30 Kunreuther HC...... 26 Lin N...... 23, 48 Madchese D...... 49 Mishra A...... 33 Jenkins-Smith H...... 27, 35 Keating M...... 27 Kuttschreuter M...... 48 Lin XG...... 29 Maeda Y...... 30, 50 Mishra S...... 30, 40 Jennings R...... 24 Kecinski M...... 48 Kuzma J...... 38 Lin YT...... 32 Maibach E...... 34 Mishra SK...... 47 Jenson T...... 46 Keisler J...... 47 Lin Z...... 44 Maier A...... 32 Mitchell C...... 49 Jessup A...... 39 Keisler M...... 47 Lindsay JA...... 24 Makino R...... 34 Mitchell J...... 26, 29, 33 Jia H...... 25 Kelly ID...... 43 L Lindström T...... 34 Mangalam S...... 30, 43 Mitchell JB...... 38 Jiang HZ...... 31 Kelly S...... 42 Lai TR...... 32 Linkov I...... 28, 30, 35, 47, 49 Mannshardt E...... 27 Mitchell JM...... 29 Jiang Y...... 42 Kennedy AJ...... 40 Lai Szu Chi...... 33 Linn J...... 37 Marafi .N ...... 32 Mitchell RE...... 38 Jobin M...... 46 Kenney M...... 30 Lal Das P...... 43 Lipscomb JC...... 31, 32 Marano K...... 50 Mohammadabbasi M...... 31 John RJ...... 33, 37 Kerr SE...... 32 Lambert CE...... 34 Liu C...... 50 Marasteanu IJ...... 42 Mohar I...... 34 John RS...... 26, 37 Keskin OF...... 26 Lambert JH...... 28, 44, 45 Liu S...... 34 Marchant GE...... 48 Mokhtari A...... 40 Johns DO...... 37 Keskin OK...... 31 Lambertini E...... 38 Liu W...... 30 Marchese DC...... 28 Monteiro LKS...... 30 Johnson BB...... 25, 41 Khan KJ...... 25 Lance Fiondella LF...... 44 Liu X...... 32, 34 Marti M...... 33, 46 Montibeller G...... 25, 37 Johnson CA...... 49 Kim JH...... 44, 50 Landis W...... 49 Lloyd JM...... 25 Martin JD...... 33 Moolgavkar SH...... 50 Johnson DR...... 45 Kin Lu A...... 37 Landis WG...... 28, 49 Loccisano A...... 36 Martyn N...... 30 Morath D...... 46 Johnson KL...... 31 King ZM...... 34, 45 Lane C...... 38 Logan T...... 40 Marynissen H...... 43 Morello-Forsch RA...... 27 Johnson MJ...... 28 Kiperstock A...... 30 Lange R...... 46 Logan TM...... 24 Masten SJ...... 38 Morss R...... 46 Johnson R...... 26 Kiperstok A...... 30 Lange S...... 27 Long C...... 42 Masuda R...... 30 Morss RE...... 46 Jones L...... 27 Kitsak M...... 28 Langeland AL...... 47 Long T...... 27 Matthes J...... 33 Mraz AL...... 26, 29 Jones RM...... 29 Kittinger R...... 35 Lappin B...... 46 Lopez TK...... 32 Mattuck R...... 32 Mumpower JL...... 34 Jones ST...... 34 Klein R...... 31 Large PJ...... 34 Lord JJ...... 39 Mav D...... 29 Mundt KA...... 47 Jong-Kamphuis N...... 48 Klijn EH...... 33 Larkin P...... 38 Lowes L...... 47 Mayeda A...... 33 Muñoz-Ramos K...... 35 Joo J...... 27 Klinke A...... 49 Lasher A...... 42 Lowney Y...... 33 Mayfield DB...... 39 Murayama TM...... 34 Jore SH...... 28 Klosowska A...... 24 Lau AKH...... 50 Lu H...... 24 Mayo MJ...... 39 Murphy SJ...... 32 Jorquera O...... 30 Knorr P...... 31 Lau EC...... 50 Lucas K...... 49 McClaran N...... 34 Myers E...... 25 Jovanovic A...... 42 Kobayashi N...... 34 Lauder M...... 43 Luchansky JB...... 24 McClellan GE...... 36 Myers T...... 34 Jovanović AS...... 28 Kobylewski-Saucier SE...... 31 Lauterstein D...... 48 Luhmann CC...... 31 McClellan RO...... 50 Myles P...... 35 Judson R...... 29 Kohl P...... 25 Leard B...... 37 Lull RB...... 25 McComas KA...... 24, 34 Jugloff .D...... 34 Kojima N...... 30, 33 Le Bizec B...... 36 Luo RY...... 33 McCright AM...... 33 Julian AA...... 37 Kolar R...... 32 Lee CH...... 50 Luo YS...... 34 McElmurry S...... 38 N Julias C...... 49 Komatsubara Y...... 34 Lee RC...... 30 Lustenberger P...... 44 McKee C...... 34 Nagaoka NA...... 34 Jung J...... 26 Kopp RE...... 25 Leiss W...... 38 Lutter R...... 37 McKenney C...... 30 Nagaraju V...... 30, 31 Koppen K...... 38 Lemay JC...... 32, 48 Lynch HN...... 34 McRoberts B...... 40 Nako S...... 41 Kotcher J...... 34 Leroux A...... 36 Lynch MT...... 31, 32 Mehmood A...... 42 Nambunmee K...... 47 K Kottapalli B...... 33, 40 Leston AR...... 34 Lyons D...... 38 Meiro-Lorenzo M...... 33 Nance P...... 28 Kabir E...... 45 Kovacs DK...... 30 Leung ACW...... 30 Membré JM...... 36 Nateghi R...... 24, 40, 49 Kadeli LG...... 33 Kowalcyk BB...... 38 Levasseur J...... 38 Menzie C...... 28 Neitzel RL...... 47 Kaden DA...... 43 Kozak R...... 34 Leveque R...... 47 M Menzie CA...... 37 Nejadhashemi AP...... 29 Kajihara H...... 33 Kratchman J...... 31 Levitt D...... 30 Maberti S...... 26 Merad MM...... 33, 40 Nelson K...... 26 Kalimuthu...... 25 Krewski D...... 24, 38 Lewis RJ...... 24 Macal CM...... 47 Meredith C...... 48 Nelson KS...... 26 Kaminski NE...... 33 Kruse J...... 32 Li H...... 49 MacDonald-Gibson J.. 36, 41, 44, Messer KD...... 48 Ng V...... 38 Kandlikar K...... 48 Kruszewski FH...... 34 Li N...... 34 47 Middendorf PJ...... 33 Nguyen JD...... 33 Kapraun DF...... 36 Krutilla K...... 27, 39 Li Y...... 42 MacDonell M...... 23 Miles S...... 47 Nguyen K...... 37 Karanth S...... 33 Kucukkaya G...... 26 Li ZY...... 50 MacDonell MM...... 37, 47 Miller K...... 29 Nguyen KD...... 37 Kashuba R...... 28 Kudo T...... 34 Lieberman HR...... 25 Machimura T...... 33 Miller RS...... 34 Nichols GP...... 40 Kashuba RO...... 37 Kuempel ED...... 37 Liggans G...... 42 MacIntyre E...... 44 Miller SE...... 37 Nicol AM...... 29 Kause J...... 24 Kuen Yu Hwu JB...... 33 Lillys T...... 25 MacKenzie CA...... 26, 36, 40 Ming-Che H...... 50 Niederdeppe J...... 24 Kuhn K...... 45 Minnery JG...... 30

2017 Final Program 53 Author Index

Nietfeld D...... 46 Pang H...... 26 Poole C...... 33 Reilly AR...... 26 Salehi M...... 29 Shashaani S...... 49 Nishikizawa NS...... 34 Paoli G...... 35, 40 Poortinga W...... 39 Reisfeld B...... 34 Sanaa M...... 24 Shatkin JA...... 26, 40 Noblet CL...... 25 Park JH...... 37 Porcari A...... 42 Reiss R...... 36 Sansavini G...... 24, 36 Sheikh Hassani N...... 30, 31, 43 Norton RA...... 38 Parker A...... 32 Portacci K...... 34 Rendón-Von Osten J...... 47 Santana SPB...... 32 Shekar V...... 45 Novikova TS...... 40 Parrett M...... 46 Porter Z...... 37 Rennert KJ...... 25 Santillana Farakos SM...... 26 Shortridge JE...... 28 Nowlin M...... 27 Parry E...... 32 Portney KE...... 34 Ren T...... 42 Santos JR...... 39, 46 Shwom RL...... 46 Nozick L...... 32 Partridge T...... 49 Porto-Fett ACS...... 24 Renn O...... 42 Sarkar B...... 41 Siddiki S...... 37 Nucci ML...... 31 Pate-Cornell ME...... 45 Pouillot R...... 24, 26, 42 Renn OR...... 49 Sassi A...... 46 Siebert P...... 35 Nyambok EO...... 32 Patlewicz G...... 29 Pouzou JG...... 48 Resnick S...... 33 Sato N...... 30 Siegrist M...... 23, 27, 43, 46 Patterson J...... 32 Powers R...... 34 Resurreccion AC...... 32, 39 Satterfield .T...... 48 Signoret JP...... 40 Patwardhan A...... 32 Poyraz OI...... 26, 31 Resurreccion JZ...... 46 Savidge MJ...... 30 Silva C...... 27, 35 O Paul R...... 35 Pradhan AK...... 26, 33, 40 Rhoads WJ...... 38 Sax S...... 47 Simon SS...... 24 O’Blenis PA...... 29 Paveglio T...... 33 Price PS...... 38 Rhomberg LR...... 33 Sayler SK...... 47 Skoczen-Rapala £...... 24 O’Brien C...... 25 Payette P...... 35 Prisacari A...... 26 Richard A...... 29 Scanlon K...... 31 Slavinsky I...... 38 O’Donnell N...... 33 Pearce JM...... 47 Pritchard C...... 35 Rickard LN...... 25, 34 Schachtman N...... 50 Slovic P...... 36, 50 Ohayon JL...... 27 Pee DG...... 29 Prucha C...... 31 Ridge AC...... 43 Schaefer H...... 27 Smegal DC...... 30 Ohkubo C...... 33 Peers M...... 33 Pruden A...... 38 Ries D...... 32 Schaffner DW...... 26 Smid JH...... 47 Øien K...... 28 Pei Y...... 37 Prueitt RL...... 32, 34 Rietveld H...... 38 Schell K...... 32 Smith BA...... 38 Oiso S...... 27 Peignier I...... 34 Puech Fernandez MR...... 33 Ríos Insua D...... 30 Schell KR...... 36 Smith DS...... 42 Okragla D...... 24 Peng YH...... 31 Rios M...... 38 Schell MC...... 36 Smith KL...... 38 Oliveira-Esquerre KP...... 32 Pérez-Casimiro G...... 47 Ripberger J...... 27 Scheufele DA...... 25, 33, 35 Smith MD...... 45 Oliveira-Esquerre KPR...... 30 Persky J...... 50 Q Ripberger JT...... 35 Schick A...... 30 Snawder JE...... 27 Ollison WM...... 34 Pessoa RW...... 32 Qiu X...... 30 Ritterson R...... 28 Schlosser PM...... 36 Snell S...... 24 Olsen M...... 47 Pessoa RWS...... 30, 32 Quessy S...... 36 Rock CM...... 29 Schmaling K...... 31 Snyder E...... 32 Olson M...... 33 Peterson J...... 30 Quiocho RE...... 39 Rodrigures I...... 42 Schouten KIM...... 33 Soares ES...... 32 Onica T...... 34 Peterson MK...... 32 Quiring S...... 40 Rojas-Bracho L...... 27 Schroeder J...... 34 Son I...... 26 Ono K...... 31 Peterson St-Laurent G...... 34 Qunitero FA...... 42 Rooney AA...... 29 Schuck JA...... 34 Song H...... 24 Oppenheimer M...... 23, 48 Peters TF...... 26 Rose J...... 29 Schuldt J...... 25 Sorrentino C...... 32 Opperhuizen AE...... 33 Petito Boyce C...... 39 Rose KM...... 33 Schuldt JP...... 24 Sowell F...... 32 O’Rawe J...... 28 Pfeiffer .S...... 38 R Rosenstein AB...... 33 Schuler KL...... 24 Spada M...... 44 Phadke D...... 29 Rouse JR...... 35 Schweizer PJ...... 46, 49 Speed A...... 35 O’Reilly MV...... 23 Ra K...... 32 Pham P...... 30 Røvang LB...... 43 Schweizer VJ...... 38 Spence A...... 46 Oryang D...... 40 Rachunok BA...... 49 Phillips CA...... 34 Rowe J...... 33 Scott PK...... 32 Spence E...... 29 Oryang DO...... 36 Racicot M...... 36 Phillips J...... 29 Royal A...... 49 Scott RP...... 41 Spero E...... 31 Osberghaus D...... 29 Rady AS...... 25 Phillips K...... 38 Rudel RA...... 27 Scouras J...... 38 Spicer KE...... 37 Otten A...... 38 Rager JE...... 24 Phillips KA...... 38 Ruiz-Piña HA...... 47 Seager TP...... 28 Spungen J...... 26, 32 Otto J...... 42 Raimi KT...... 24, 48 Pidgeon N...... 46, 49 Rusyn I...... 34 Sease CS...... 24 Spungen JH...... 24 Outkin AV...... 34 Rainwater CR...... 40 Pidgeon NF...... 29 Ruzante JM...... 38 Seitz R...... 30 Staid A...... 40 Ovesen J...... 32 Rak A...... 31, 34, 40 Pielaat A...... 47 Ryan C...... 50 Sellke P...... 42 Stark J...... 49 Ramírez-González A...... 47 Pinelis J...... 38 Ryan NM...... 43 Sellman S...... 34 Statham G...... 30 Ramsey BA...... 38 Pinkston K...... 30 Rycroft T...... 35 Selvik JT...... 40 Stauffacher .M...... 33, 46 P Rani S...... 33 Pinkston KE...... 43 Seog S...... 30 Stearns M...... 36 Pace ND...... 33 Rao V...... 30 Pinson P...... 32 Sertkaya A...... 39, 46 Stefanison I...... 29 Pacheco Shubin SE...... 32 Rath B...... 35 Pinto CA...... 26, 31 S Shah I...... 29 Steinhardt JS...... 33 Pagano A...... 23 Redinger CF...... 23, 30 Pluchinotta I...... 23 Shah R...... 29 Stenhouse N...... 34 Pagone F...... 50 Regnier E...... 26 Saadat Y...... 31 Poda AR...... 40 Shao K...... 31, 36 Stevens YA...... 48 Pagsuyoin S...... 39 Reichle L...... 31 Sager SL...... 31 Pohl AM...... 24 Shao W...... 49 Stiefel D...... 47 Pagsuyoin SA...... 39 Reilly A...... 31 Salamati F...... 30 Pohl EP...... 40 Shapiro A...... 31 Stifelman M...... 33 Palma-Oliveira J...... 28 Reilly AC...... 26 Salcedo G...... 39 Poinsatte-Jones K...... 24, 35 Shapiro AJ...... 29, 31 Stillo F...... 41

54 Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Author Index

Stojadinovic B...... 44 Tonn BE...... 47 Vogel CM...... 34 Whittaker MH...... 32, 43 Zhou Z...... 29 Stone S...... 27 Tonn G...... 26 Von Stackelberg KE...... 49 Wichman C...... 25 Y Zhu Q...... 44 Straatsma G...... 38 Tonn GL...... 26 Von Winterfeldt D...... 37 Wiedmann M...... 24 Yahyazadeh Z...... 32 Zhu Y...... 42 Strauss B...... 46 Toton E...... 38 Vos SC...... 33 Wiemer S...... 33 Yamada T...... 30 Zhuang J...... 26, 33 Streetman SS...... 42 Trail JB...... 47 Vraga E...... 34 Wiener JB...... 43, 48 Yamaguchi H...... 30 Zimmerman R...... 45 Strijbosch K...... 35 Trainor J...... 32 Vugrin ED...... 34 Wiersma RP...... 36 Yamoun DY...... 27 Zobel CW...... 40 Suchomel AE...... 32 Travadel S...... 43 Wietelman D...... 37 Yan J...... 32 Zoellner C...... 24, 33 Sully M...... 30 Treuer G...... 23 Wijnands LM...... 47 Yan JY...... 45 Zouhair F...... 34 Summers T...... 43 Trump B...... 24, 30, 49 W Wikoff .D...... 31 Yang F...... 37 Zwickle A...... 33, 39 Suri MR...... 29 Trump BD...... 35 Wachtel A...... 35 Wikoff DS...... 24 Yang H...... 38 Susi P...... 37 Tsai J...... 29 Wachtendorf T...... 32 Wikoff DW...... 25 Yang J...... 33, 34 Susmann H...... 27 Tsaioun K...... 24 Wallace A...... 37 Wilkins A...... 31 Yang K...... 32 Suter J...... 44 Tsan YT...... 31 Waller RR...... 24 Williams A...... 29 Yang S...... 44 Sütterlin B...... 23, 27 Tsao K...... 34 Wallis L...... 49 Williams AJ...... 29 Yarmin L...... 40 Sutton J...... 33 Tsoukias A...... 23 Walpole EH...... 39 Williams L...... 42 Yeager RP...... 50 Swiatkowska B...... 24 Tsunemi K...... 31 Walpole HW...... 39 Williams PRD...... 32, 33 Ye X...... 42 Tulve NS...... 34 Walsh S...... 34 Williams RA...... 27 Yen YT...... 32 Turley A...... 29 Wambaugh J...... 29 Willison S...... 32 Yi W...... 32 T Turner MB...... 25 Wandji T...... 30 Wilson JM...... 38 Yin MC...... 31, 33 Taber DL...... 34, 45 Turnley J...... 35 Wang B...... 26, 42 Wilson RS...... 39 Yip C...... 39 Tai-Yi L...... 50 Wang H...... 42 Winckler V...... 40 Ylonen M...... 40 Takeshita J...... 34 Wang L...... 42 Wirtz MS...... 32 Yost E...... 31 Tamrakar SB...... 29 U Wang M...... 29 Wirz CD...... 25, 35 Young CE...... 34 Tandon A...... 29 Underwood P...... 31 Wang W...... 36 Wollega E...... 40 Yu HL...... 50 Tang J...... 32 Underwood PM...... 40 Wang X...... 42 Wolsje KS...... 48 Yu J...... 33, 36 Tanir J...... 30 Upham B...... 33 Wansub K...... 44 Wolske KS...... 24 Yu Y...... 33 Tanner A...... 46 Uthrup NU...... 24 Warner C...... 35 Wong CML...... 49 Tatar U...... 26 Wartman JB...... 47 Wong H...... 39 Taylor AR...... 47 Watson JP...... 40 Wong-Parodi G...... 44, 46 Z Wood AL...... 49 Taylor M...... 44 V Webb C...... 34 Zabinski J...... 36 Wood M...... 35 Taylor ML...... 31 Vaishnav P...... 29 Weber RF...... 41 Zagmutt FJ...... 48 Wood MD...... 28, 44 Taylor T...... 25 Vallero D...... 38 Wegener CA...... 24 Zahry NR...... 33 Worobo R...... 33 Teimouri M...... 32 Van de Poel I...... 36 Wei Z...... 42 Zaitchik B...... 24 Wu C...... 30 Teuschler LK...... 50 Van Doren J...... 26, 36, 40, 42 Weihsueh WA...... 34 Zaitchik BF...... 28 Wu F...... 25, 33, 40 Thacker S...... 29 Van Doren JM...... 24 Weinberg J...... 46 Zanabria R...... 36 Wu KY...... 30, 32, 33, 34, 47 Thayer K...... 31 van Duijkeren E...... 47 Weir MH...... 26, 29 Zaruk D...... 50 Wyss GD...... 34 Thekdi S...... 39 Van Landingham C...... 50 Welburn JW...... 40 Zelikoff JT...... 48 Thomas M...... 49 Van’t Hooft BJ...... 38 Wells E...... 28, 35 Zemba V...... 28 Thompson L...... 31 van Vliet OPR...... 46 Welsh B...... 31 X Zhai C...... 26 Thorisson H...... 45 Vardon P...... 46 Welsh BT...... 25 Zhang L...... 33 Thorne ST...... 30 Varghese A...... 29 Wennergren U...... 34 Xenos MA...... 25, 33, 35 Zhang Q...... 32 Tiffany .P...... 31 Vedlitz A...... 34 Wharff .J...... 39 Xian S...... 49 Zhang W...... 42 Tildesley M...... 34 Vennemann FBC...... 47 Whatling P...... 36 Xian SY...... 23, 48 Zhang Y...... 30 Timmons S...... 35 Vidale J...... 47 Wheeler MW...... 31 Xu J...... 49 Zhen G...... 42 Todd J...... 31 Vink D...... 44 Whelton AJ...... 29, 32 Xu L...... 47, 49 Zheng H...... 47 Tokai A...... 30, 33 Virji MA...... 37 White TW...... 24 Xuejun W...... 42 Zhou L...... 33 Toman E...... 39 Visschers VHM...... 46 Whitmarsh L...... 39 Xue M...... 33 Zhou S...... 25 Tong Y...... 42 Vogel C...... 31 Whittaker C...... 31 Zhou YC...... 37

2017 Final Program 55 Crystal Gateway Marriott – Floorplans

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The objectives of the Fifth World Congress on Risk are to: Coming to South Africa in 2019 • Stimulate dialogue and learning on risk issues of worldwide interest • Share insights to analytic methods, decision processes and policy making THE WORLD CONGRESS ON RISK is organised by the Society for Risk Analysis • Disseminate advances in risk assessment, management, and communication (SRA) to grow innovation and knowledge across risk analysis and management • Connect organisations and individuals communities, researchers, practitioners, policymakers and related stakeholders . The • Facilitate educational opportunities and transfer science-informed practices to event seeks to stimulate ideas and solutions for regional and global risk challenges . user communities The past World Congresses in Singapore (2015), Sydney (2012), Guadalajara (2008) The broad interdisciplinary programme features symposia, instructional courses, and Brussels (2003) engaged thousands of scholars and professionals from more than oral and poster presentations, informal discussion and exchange with international forty countries . In 2019, the SRA brings the World Congress to Cape Town, South Africa, experts, and training workshops . where organisations, companies, academia and individuals will gather with a theme of Development and Resilience, across a variety of topics: Participation of researchers and practitioners based in developing countries is • Emerging technologies and innovation • Disaster preparedness and resilience essential . Applications for support of participant travel and related expenses are • Environment, ecology, climate • Energy, transportation, logistics invited . The initial Call for Abstracts was released in July 2017 with a due date • Agriculture, food and water supply • Poverty in rural and urban areas of December 1, 2017 (www .sra org). . Session organisers are asked to include • Human health and safety • Infrastructure systems presenters or discussants from developing countries . • Law, policy and governance • Economics, finance and fraud-related Interested in sponsoring this event? • Business processes and standards issues in enterprise and government Agencies, corporations, not-for-profits, societies, et al. are invited to • Population and workforce behaviors • Ethnic and socio-economic risks co-sponsor and participate in the Congress, in ways most suited to the individual sponsors . A particular need is funding for travel, training, and other expenses Please contact the organisers at: of participants from Africa, Asia, Oceania, Middle East, and Latin America . The Secretariat, Society for Risk Analysis World Congress offers sponsorship opportunities at several levels – Champion, 1313 Dolley Madison Blvd., Suite 402 • McLean, VA 22101 USA Supporter, and Friend . Those interested in sponsoring the event should contact the +1 (703) 790-1745 · +1 (703) 790-2672 Executive Secretary, Mr . Brett Burk, Secretariat@SRA org. . Email: [email protected] · www.sra.org We look forward to your joining in the Fifth World Congress.