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Sydney's North Shore A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION SYDNEY’S NORTH SHORE Office Markets DECEMBER 2017 CITIES INTO ACTION CITIES INTO ACTION CONTENTS MARKET OVERVIEW ......................................3 HIGHLIGHTS ........................................................4 LEASING MARKET ............................................9 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY .................................11 INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS ......12 SUMMARY .......................................................... 13 A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Market Overview Office markets in Sydney’s North Shore comprise the powerhouse suburbs of North Sydney and Macquarie Park, in addition to the smaller hybrid markets of Chatswood, and Crows Nest/St Leonards. Collectively they amount to 2,289,125 sq m – roughly 45% the size of the Sydney CBD. Suburb by suburb as of July 2017 the PCA (Property Council of Australia) recorded 873,693sq m in Macquarie Park, 822,496sq m in North Sydney, 314,017sq m in Crows Nest/St Leonards and 278,919sq m in Chatswood. Collectively these markets Sydney’s comprise of 51% Prime grade office space (Premium and A Grade) and 49% population Secondary grade. (Grade B, C and D). SYDNEY’S is forecast to Major changes to the North Shore urban landscape are anticipated in the years to increase from come with 100 Mount Street (42,000sq m) 5.1 million to due for completion in 2018 and 1 Denison Street (61,000 sq m) due in 2020. From 6.7 million people 2024 both developments will benefit from the Sydney Metro project which will by 2037 see Victoria Cross Station constructed in the heart of North Sydney. Nearby, from 2024 Crows Nest will also benefit from NORTH SHORE a new metro station. From 2019 other stations including Chatswood, North Ryde, Macquarie Park and Macquarie University will benefit from the Norwest Metro project. The sale and withdrawal of secondary grade office stock for residential conversion has been a typical theme in each of the North Shore markets, and we expect this to continue given Sydney’s 20 year population forecast of an increase from 5.1 million people in 2017 to 6.7 million people in 2037. 3 Tenant demand in the North Sydney Highlights office leasing market has $1.62 significantly Demand Tenant demand in the North Sydney office billion increased leasing market has significantly increased in the past in the past 12 months, a flow on from the 12 months tight vacancy of of Sydney’s CBD. sales volume due to Supply Development activity in North Sydney increased in assets has gained significant momentum in put up for sale the year to December 2017 with pre- commitments signed at both 1 Denison Street (Channel 9) and 100 Mount Street (NBN). Vacancy As reported by the PCA in the year 7.9% to July 2017 the North Shore vacancy vacancy rate increased 60 basis points to 7.9%. rate Macquarie Park vacancy increased 140bp to 8.5% over the same period, however this remains significantly below on the North Shore the 11.2% recorded in mid-2014. which has increased 60 basis points Rents North Sydney Prime grade net face rents are circa $690 per sq m per annum with 25% gross incentives. Macquarie Park Prime grade net face rents are circa $360 per sq m per annum with net incentives of 25%. Investment The year to October 2017 saw a significant increase in capital seeking metropolitan located assets. In Q2 and Q3 2017 there was an increase in assets being put up for sale, contributing $1.62 billion in sales volume. Infrastructure The Sydney Metro Northwest project is well underway with the Rouse Hill to Chatswood link to open in 2019. The $2 Billion Northern Beaches Hospital and associated road network have progressed significantly and are due for completion late 2018. 4 A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Market Indicators as at Q4 October 2017 Vacancy 12 Month net Gross Capital Size rate absorption Net rent incentives Market value Market Grade (sq m) (July 2017) (sq m) ($/sq m) (%) yield ($/sq m) Macquarie Prime 650,050 6.2% 912 $357 25% (net) 5.00%- 7,000– Park/North 5.50% 7,600 Ryde Secondary 223,643 15.0% -21,735 $324 30% (net) 5.50%- 5,500– 6.50% 6,200 Total 873,693 8.5% -20,823 North Prime 260,807 6.0% 50,927 $692 25% 4.75%- 10,500– Sydney 6.00% 14,000 Secondary 561,689 6.6% -18,044 $596 26% 5.00% - 9,500– 6.00% 12,000 Total 822,496 6.4% 32,883 Crows Nest/ Prime 102,699 14.9% -12,336 $550 23% 6.25%- 8,100- St Leonards 6.50% 9,200 Secondary 211,318 11.5% -18,690 $320 25% 6.50%- 4,400- 6.75% 5,200 Total 314,017 12.6% -31,026 Chatswood Prime 157,412 6.6% -733 $505 23% 6.10%- 7,600- 6.30% 8,800 Secondary 121,507 7.3% -174 $380 26% 6.25%- 5,500- 6.50% 6,300 Total 278,919 6.9% -907 TOTAL 2,289,125 8.1% -19,873 North Shore office market vacancy rates 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Chatswood Crows Nest/St Leonards Macquarie Park North Sydney TOTAL Vacancy Source: PCA; Cushman & Wakefield Research 5 Supply and Development Activity 42,000 After five years of decline, North Shore relying on a major anchor for a project sq m of office office stock levels are again on the rise. to begin. stock The amount of available office stock The next substantial development in in the North Shore peaked in 2011 at the precinct progressed in August 2017 1,511,581 sq m but fell to 1,405,032 sq m when infrastructure and property group will be added at by 2016. The decline was mainly driven 100 Mount Street, John Holland won the NSW Government by conversion of secondary office North Sydney tender to develop a new commercial stock to residential as developers precinct at 45-61 Waterloo Road, took advantage of Sydney’s booming Macquarie Park. housing market. A 35,000 sq m building is soon to be However, the strong CBD office market constructed, and the 3.2ha plot holds 61,000 is spilling over to the North Shore, with the potential for an additional 82,000 sq m of office 125,000 sq m of office stock to be added sq m of stock to be developed in the stock by 2020. medium term. The NSW Government, Of this, 103,000 sq m will be in North who sold the site for $170 million as a will be added at Sydney including Dexus’ 100 Mount part of its asset recycling program, has 1 Denison Street, Street and Winten’s 1 Denison Street. agreed to lease back 25,000 sq m with North Sydney Approximately 3,000 sq m is planned options for up to 30,000 sq m more. at Mirvac’s St Leonards Square. Nearly The remaining 9,500 sq m of the 34,500 19,000 sq m of new and refurbished sq m building will represent the first Goodman stock was completed in 2017 large speculatively developed space at 8 Khartoum Road and 97 Waterloo in Macquarie Park for approximately Road in Macquarie Park. a decade. In Macquarie Park development activity Although a large volume of stock is set remains substantially pre-commitment to be added, a significant component based with commercial construction has been pre-committed: Tenant Address Tenancy size Fuji Xerox 8 Khartoum Road, Macquarie Park 11,100 sq m Channel 9 1 Denison Street, North Sydney 15,500 sq m NBN 100 Mount Street, North Sydney 20,364 sq m NSW Government 45-61 Waterloo Road, Macquarie Park 25,000 sq m After five years of decline, North Shore office stock levels are again on the rise 6 A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION North Shore and Macquarie Park Development Pipeline Property Precinct NLA (sq m) Type Status Completion 97-99 Waterloo Road Macquarie Park 8,146 Full Refurb Completed 2017 8 Khartoum Road Macquarie Park 10,800 New Completed 2017 100 Mount Street North Sydney 42,000 New Construction 2018+ 472-494 Pacific Highway Crows Nest/ 3,700 New Construction 2019+ St Leonards 1 Denison Street North Sydney 61,000 New Site Works 2019+ 19-22 Atchison Street Crows Nest/ 2,362 New DA Approved 2019+ St Leonards 500 Pacific Highway Crows Nest/ 2,825 New DA Approved 2020+ St Leonards Royal North Shore Crows Nest/ 25,000 New Mooted TBD Hospital site St Leonards 6-8 Julius Avenue North Ryde 34,194 New DA Approved TBD 219-247 Pacific Highway Crows Nest/ 46,000 New DA Approved TBD St Leonards 1 Rivett Road North Ryde 11,380 New DA Approved TBD 18-20 Atchison Street Crows Nest/ 2,300 New DA Applied TBD St Leonards 95 Waterloo Road Macquarie Park 14,874 New DA Applied TBD 11 Talavera Road Macquarie Park 32,000 New DA Applied TBD 8-12 University Avenue Macquarie Park 50,000 New DA Applied TBD 396 Lane Cove Road Macquarie Park 74,000 New Early Feasibility TBD 45-61 Waterloo Road Macquarie Park 117,000 New DA Applied TBD 39 Delhi Road (Lighthouse) North Ryde 30,000 New DA Approved TBD 88 Christie Street Crows Nest/ 26,500 New DA Approved TBD St Leonards 118 Mount Street North Sydney 21,000 New DA Approved TBD 271 Lane Cove Road Macquarie Park 34,000 New DA Approved TBD Source: PCA; Cushman & Wakefield Research 7 Residential Projects Pipeline Address Project Suburb Units Status Completion 9 Albany Street Metropolitan St Leonards 125 Completed 2017 Apartments 88 Alfred Street 88 Alfred Street North Sydney 123 Under 2017 Construction 150 Pacific Highway Polaris North Sydney 232 Under 2018 Construction 321 Pacific Highway East Lane North Sydney 36 Under 2018 Construction 31-33 Albany Street The Hume Crows Nest 35 DA Approved 2018 1 Delhi Road Centrale North Ryde 380 Under 2018 Construction 5 Whiteside Street Macquarie Green Macquarie Park 164 Under 2018 Construction 120 Herring Road One Twenty Macquarie Park 196 Under 2018 Macquarie Construction Cnr Herring, Epping Macquarie Park Macquarie Park N/A Under 2018 Roads Village Construction 472-486 Pacific St Leonards Square St Leonards 526 Under 2019 Highway Construction 221 Miller Street The Miller North
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