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ASEAN Infrastructure: the NEW OLD THING

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ASEAN Infrastructure: the NEW OLD THING Unmasking Asia Thematic Research APRIL 2016 ASEAN Infrastructure: THE NEW OLD THING SEE PAGE 125 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE Unmasking Asia Thematic Research Series Stress Test Series, September 2015 Regional: I So Wanna Be Resilient Hong Kong/China: The Devil’s in the Details… India: Asia’s Sanctuary Indonesia: Finding a Foothold Malaysia: Weathering Through The Philippines: Stress Cuts Profit But FCF Stays Positive Singapore: The Growth Conundrum Thailand: Barely Resilient Vietnam: Timely Deleveraging Hong Kong/China Energy: Project Blue Sky, December 2015 Hong Kong/China Electric Vehicles: The Green Race, January 2016 ASEAN Infrastructure: The New Old Thing, April 2016 UNMASKING ASIA Executive Summary Is ASEAN Infrastructure The New Old Thing? In Vietnam, the government acknowledges that the state budget and other forms of development assistance may meet at most half of budgetary This report tackles the theme in two ways. From a strategy perspective, we needs over the next 10 years. That implies that Public Private Partnerships assess the needs and the sources of funding. We also look at each country are a necessity and not an option, offering new opportunities. from a sector perspective to identify gaps, whether they will be filled and, if not, what needs to happen for shortfalls to be met. This provides the basis In Thailand, there is sufficient domestic liquidity to fund spending as the for identifying opportunities and investment recommendations. Our focus is emphasis shifts to transport. This new focus reflects concerns over the threat on Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. of high logistics costs to competitiveness. If projects can be successfully executed, logistics costs could drop 2%-points to 12%, significant for the Our principal findings are: manufacturing sector. Since the start of the year, the poor global cyclical environment has meant The Philippines has under-invested in recent years and has actually seen greater fiscal impetus on infrastructure spend. Even Singapore is set to deteriorating logistics performance in contrast to the rest of the region. accelerate development expenditure to 6% of GDP by 2020. Infrastructure spending is set to be a key focus of the incoming government Structurally, looking at asset turnover globally suggests few reasons to following the May elections, with transport again the emphasis. expect global growth to accelerate. And, given aggregate leverage, there In Malaysia and Singapore, it’s about improving the quality of infrastructure are few reasons to expect balance sheet expansion by developed markets rather than increasing the infrastructure capital stock per se. as well as China. The biggest theme in Malaysia is the build-out of the rail system over the But while ASEAN infrastructure needs are well known, funding remains the next 5-10 years to improve and enhance local and regional connectivity key question. We looked at savings rates against demographic and given the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community last December. urbanization trends and find there are reasons to expect rising domestic savings rates in coming years. It also helps that ASEAN balance sheets are Singapore continues to invest in extending its lead as a regional hub, both under-leveraged with capacity to expand. While foreign capital is needed, in LNG and in information and communication. Development expenditure domestic funding is set to be a big factor. in the budget is set to accelerate. Two of the countries have external funding needs. In Indonesia, Around the region, while we are seeing improving governance overall, government development budgets are up 33% CAGR since 2014, and much remains to be done. The practicalities of land acquisition remain a spending in the first two months is running at over 40% YoY. Even so, interest key risk throughout much of the region, particularly for executing transport rates and the currency have been well behaved this year. Power is projects. interesting in that our team reckons IRRs have not changed in recent years, The team’s best stock ideas are on page 2. even as they have dropped around the region. The team also sees opportunities in transport. UNMASKING ASIA 1 ASEAN Infrastructure Best Ideas Price Mkt Cap 3mth avg T/O PE (x) EPS growth (%) PB (x) DY (%) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Name Ticker Sector Analyst (lcl crcy) (USDm) (USDm) Rating 15 16F 15 16F 15 16F 15 16F 15 16F 15A 16F Indonesia Adhi Karya ADHI IJ Construction Pandu Anugrah 2,670 719 5 Buy 12.1 13.9 23 -13 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 14 13 5 7 Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ Real Estate Aurellia Setiabudi 1,835 2,671 4 Buy 13.7 13.5 -36 2 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.7 15 13 1 1 Jasa Marga JSMR IJ Construction Pandu Anugrah 5,375 2,764 3 Hold 24.9 20.8 3 20 3.5 3.2 1.3 1.4 15 16 13 12 Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ Construction Pandu Anugrah 3,750 1,373 2 Buy 26.8 20.2 27 33 6.2 5.0 0.9 1.1 26 28 10 8 Summarecon SMRA IJ Real Estate Aurellia Setiabudi 1,590 1,735 3 Buy 27.6 20.5 -40 35 3.8 3.3 1.3 1.5 15 17 2 2 Waskita Karya WSKT IJ Construction Pandu Anugrah 2,090 2,145 5 Buy 22.0 22.3 81 -2 2.4 2.7 0.5 0.7 17 13 14 14 Malaysia Gamuda GAM MK Construction Li Shin Chai 5.0 3,029 5 Buy 17.1 18.0 -7 -5 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 12 10 23 20 IJM IJM MK Construction Li Shin Chai 3.6 3,310 5 Hold 22.1 22.7 -14 -3 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.1 7 7 12 15 Sunway Construction SCGB MK Construction Li Shin Chai 1.6 534 1 Buy 16.5 13.5 12 22 4.7 3.8 2.5 2.6 33 31 9 7 Philippines DMCI Holdings DMC PM Industrials Rommel Rodrigo 12.8 3,661 2 Hold 15.5 13.7 0 13 2.8 2.6 3.9 4.4 19 20 11 9 Metro Pacific Inv’t MPI PM Financials Rommel Rodrigo 5.8 3,515 5 Buy 18.7 19.3 2 -3 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.6 8 7 20 19 Singapore Mapletree Ind Trust MINT SP REITs Joshua Tan 1.6 2,122 3 Buy na na na na 1.2 1.2 6.5 6.9 8 8 18 18 SingTel ST SP Telcos Gregory Yap 3.7 43,812 62 Buy 15.7 15.5 4 1 2.4 2.3 4.7 4.8 16 15 10 8 Thailand Advanced Info Service ADVANC TB Telcos Maria Lapiz 153 12,913 77 Buy 11.6 15.0 9 -22 9.4 11.2 8.5 6.6 82 68 7 9 Airports of Thailand AOT TB Transport Sittichai D. 376 15,248 40 Buy 33.5 26.4 32 27 4.9 4.3 1.4 1.5 15 17 16 18 CH. Karnchang CK TB Construction Maria Lapiz 25.3 1,214 11 Buy 33.5 29.5 29 13 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.4 7 7 22 21 Vietnam Cotec Construction CTD VN Construction Trung Thai Quang 178,000 374 0.4 Buy 12.1 9.8 100 23 2.6 2.2 2.8 3.1 22 24 5 6 Kinh Bac City Dev’t KBC VN Real Estate Trung THAI Quang 12,700 268 1 Buy 16.9 12.7 -17 33 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 6 7 20 15 Share price as at Apr 7, 2016 closing. Source: Maybank Kim Eng UNMASKING ASIA 2 Table of Contents ASEAN Infrastructure Best Ideas ......................... p2 Global: That Wonderful Elusive Sustainable Balance Sheet Growth ....................................... p5 Indonesia: Stepping on the Gas ...................... p20 Malaysia: Going Down a Different Road ....... p36 The Philippines: If You Have the Will, You’ll Have the Way .......................................... p50 Singapore: While We Were Sleeping… ........... p68 Thailand: Round 2! ............................................. p90 Vietnam: Still Below Potential ......................... p106 UNMASKING ASIA 3 REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE Five Takeaways 1. ASEAN infrastructure remains an area where we see sustained growth. 2. Indonesia (power and transport), Vietnam (PPP projects throughout), the Philippines and Thailand (both transport) are areas of opportunity. Malaysia and Singapore will focus on quality rather than quantity. 3. Regulations and transparency need to continue to improve, particularly as transport infrastructure needs clear land acquisition processes to be put in place. 4. Logistics performance has been improving. The Philippines has lagged in recent years while Indonesia has seen the greatest improvement. 5. In ASEAN, we think the demographic and urbanization trends suggest rising domestic savings rates in the coming years. It also helps that ASEAN balance sheets are under- leveraged. While foreign capital is needed, domestic funding is set to be a big factor. Sadiq Currimbhoy [email protected] (65) 6231 5836 Willie Chan [email protected] (852) 2268 0631 UNMASKING ASIA 4 into some detail highlighting the rising foreign direct investment and intra- REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE regional investment in key projects across the region. This report focuses on just the ASEAN-6 where our country teams reckon we could see government spending of USD84b this year. Of this, Indonesia provides That Wonderful Elusive Sustainable the bulk at USD23b. After this is Vietnam at USD20b. Government efforts amount to USD14b in Singapore and USD9b in Malaysia. Thailand is set to be Balance Sheet Growth small this year (USD3b) but ramping up to an average of USD9b a year to 2020.
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