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European Real Snapshot Autumn 2014

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European Real Snapshot Autumn 2014 EUROPEAN REAL SnapShot! Advisory Real Estate / Autumn 2014 Current developments in the key real estate markets in Europe Special focus: The Hotel Investment Market Content Germany 6 Historically low prime yields – will the rally in the German Hotel Market continue? United Kingdom 9 No let up in demand for UK real estate Nordic Region 16 Upswing is underway The Netherlands 20 Residential market boosts foreign investment Belgium 23 Stability in the market Luxembourg 26 Stable growth in a safe economy France 30 Big deals underpinned the market Switzerland 34 Real estate investment market loses momentum Austria 37 Robust market conditions Italy 40 Economy still fragile, but outlook optimistic Spain 44 At a stage of recovery CEE 46 Further recovery in the region may be jeopardised by the ongoing geopolitical crisis Russia 52 Under pressure, or an opportunity to buy in? Turkey 57 missing Good growth prospects Trends in the European Real Estate Investment Markets Global capital in the search for European real estate the same percentage throughout 2013. Retail secured an investments additional 2% share of investment volumes, increasing to Thank you for your interest in KPMG’s Real SnapShot. This 25% in H1 2014. In contrast, residential experienced some publication gives you an overview and insight into the softening, declining slightly from 16% of 2013’s market developments under way in the real estate markets across volume to 12% in H1 2014. Turning to our special focus Europe. sector for this issue, hospitality transaction volumes secured 8% of total investments made in the first half of the year. Momentum continues to build across these markets, with investment property transaction volumes delivering a 10% Y-o-Y growth for H1 2014 showed strong increases in retail year-on-year (“Y-o-Y”) growth to reach €89bn in the first half and office investment volumes (51% and 14% respectively). of 2014.1 This follows the strong growth (17% Y-o-Y) seen in The high growth in the retail segment results from a 2013 which most certainly ended on a post-global financial relatively high number of major shopping center deals, such crisis high for many of our markets. Through our day-to-day as Bluewater in the UK, Beaugrenelle in France or CentrO in conversations with our clients it is apparent that investor Germany. In contrast, a decrease in transaction volume was confidence remains high and that many are facing noted in industrial (-2%) and residential property (-26%). significant competition in a bid to secure investment opportunities, both core and opportunistic. As already highlighted in the last edition of Real SnapShot, cross—border capital is a key driver of transaction volumes Focusing on the sectors, offices again secured the greatest and these investors have increased their share of total share of investment volume, attracting around 41% of total investment in almost all markets. Cross-border capital European real estate investment in H1 2014, having secured continues to invest primarily in the highly liquid European metropolises such as London and Paris. However, we are 1 Real Capital Analytics seeing increasing appetite for the peripheral markets from Market Cycle Office 06 02 10 21 07 03 09 37 18 22 Office 17 19 04 Expansion 11 23 12 Oversupply 01 05 16 39 15 29 08 27 33 30 13 28 20 34 35 38 26 14 24 32 25 31 Rents Rents increasing decreasing Contraction Recovery Source: KPMG Qualitative Market Assessment Germany Nordic Region Luxembourg Switzerland Italy CEE 01 Berlin CBD 08 Copenhagen 15 Station District 21 Basel CBD 27 Milan 31 Budapest 02 Munich CBD 09 Oslo 16 Luxembourg’s CBD 22 Zurich CBD 28 Rome 32 Warsaw 03 Frankfurt CBD 10 Stockholm 17 Kirchberg 23 Geneva CBD 33 Bucharest 11 Helsinki Spain 34 Ljubliana UK France Austria 29 Barcelona 35 Zagreb 04 Edinburgh The Netherlands 18 Lyon 24 Vienna 30 Madrid 05 Manchester 12 Amsterdam South Axis 19 Paris CBD 25 Salzburg Russia 06 London West End 13 Other G4 20 Paris La Défense 26 Innsbruck 37 Sankt-Petersburg 07 London City 38 Moscow Centre Belgium 14 Brussels Turkey 39 Istanbul 4 / European Real SnapShot! / Autumn 2014 many jurisdictions and investment activity in these markets investment market were the peripheral markets such as has seen significant volumes of opportunistic capital, led by Italy, Spain or Ireland. Spain again recorded a significant US capital. US investors represent 75% of the global capital influx of foreign capital that delivered an increase of 124% in invested into the peripheral markets with investors such as transaction volume in the first half of the year. Ireland also PIMCO, Colony Capital and Blackstone being just a few of saw an uplift with transaction volumes increasing by 39% those hitting the medial headlines as they secure and build Y-o-Y. In Italy however, transaction activity has been negative sizeable European real estate portfolios. compared to the previous year. These opposing trends can be explained by the differing economic growth prospects for The UK continues to attract the greatest investment the countries, which is key to investor sentiment. volumes, securing €28bn across all sectors in H1 2014. This accounts for almost one third of the total European real Looking ahead, we expect that investment activity in estate investments in the same period and represents an secondary cities and in the peripheral markets will continue expansion of the UK investment volume of 19% on a Y-o-Y to gain traction due to highly competitive pricing in the basis. Investment activity still concentrates on the greater sought after economic centers. However, such activity will London area, which combines a share of 50% of total correlate with the economic recovery and be tempered by investments, across all sectors, made in the country. the political stability of the individual geographical areas. We also expect the core markets to largely retain their market The German property investment market attracted the share of investment volumes as the major capital sources second largest share of real estate investments made in continue to seek access to these liquid investment markets. Europe in H1 2014. The transaction volume of €19bn reflects As long as re-financing rates remain low, real estate will a slight decrease of 2% Y-o-Y. France noted a significant 39% continue to attract capital allocations due to the segment’s Y-o-Y increase in investment activity, securing €13bn. This comparably favorable risk/return profile, even if the perceived marks a rebound for the French property investment market pricing temperature seems quite elevated in some markets. having recorded a fall of 7% in 2013. Paris continues to dominate capital flows, securing 70% of the total transactions made in French investment property in H1 2014. In our last issue of KPMG Real SnapShot we highlighted that Stefan Pfister the real growth drivers in the European real estate Partner, Head of Real Estate Europe / EMA Market Cycle Retail Highstreet 0110 26 05 18 13 02 16 09 2221 36 19 Retail 17 06 Expansion 27 03 35 04 Oversupply 07 20 15 08 23 37 28 32 24 11 29 14 25 12 33 34 31 30 Rents Rents increasing decreasing Recovery Contraction Source: KPMG Qualitative Market Assessment Germany Nordic Region Luxembourg Switzerland Italy CEE 01 Frankfurt 07 Copenhagen 14 Avenue de la Gare (Station District) 20 Basel 26 Milan 30 Budapest 02 Munich 08 Stockholm 15 Grand Rue 21 Zurich 27 Rome 31 Warsaw 03 Berlin 09 Oslo 16 Rue Philippe II 22 Geneva 32 Bucharest 10 Helsinki Spain 33 Ljubljana UK France Austria 28 Barcelona 34 Zagreb 04 Edinburgh The Netherlands 17 Lyon 23 Innsbruck 29 Madrid 05 London (West End) 11 Amsterdam 18 Paris 24 Salzburg Russia 06 London (City) 12 Other G4 HS 19 Marseille 25 Vienna 35 Sankt-Petersburg 36 Moscow Belgium 13 Brussels Turkey 37 Istanbul European Real SnapShot! / Autumn 2014 / 5 Germany Historically low prime yields – will the rally in the German Real Estate Market continue? Macroeconomic Overview Prime Office Rents Driven by a robust domestic economy, Germany is expected to register Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 40 between 1.5% and 2.0% in 2014. Despite the very low 35 interest rate level, there are no economic imbalances 30 apparent. Therefore and with regard to the domestic 25 economic climate, the outlook for 2015 can be viewed as €/sq. m p.m. 20 solid. The German economy is healthy and the labour 15 market appears stable. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 H1 2014 The Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammertag (DIHK) Berlin Dusseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Munich expects a rise of around 3.5% in exports in 2014. This figure Source: Thomas Daily already considers the current economic sanctions imposed against Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis. In the first half of 2014, the volume of transactions of office space reached approximately €4.3bn in the top five In June, the Real Estate Growth Index, published by locations, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg Deutsche Hypothekenbank, reported a decrease of 1.1% for and Munich (Germany €7.8bn). the first time since June 2013. Taking into account the very high level of the index, it is still possible to interpret this Prime Office Yields marginal decline as a sign of stability. 6.0% Macroeconomic Overview 5.5% 5.0% 10% 120 8% 115 4.5% 6% 110 4% Inflation 4.0% 2% 105 0% 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -2% 95 Berlin Dusseldorf Frankfurt -4% 90 Hamburg Munich -6% -8% 85 Source: CBRE -10% 80 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Growth / Unemployment Rate Prime office yields in Düsseldorf (4.7%), Munich (4.4%) and GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Inflation (2010 = 100) Hamburg (4.6%) showed a slight reduction at the beginning Source: Destatis of 2014.
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