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Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR)

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Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) REPORT ON THE FIRST QUADRENNIAL QTR TECHNOLOGY REVIEW September 2011 MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY | I MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY Today, our nation is at a cross road. While we have the world’s greatest innovation ma- chine, countries around the world are moving aggressively to lead in the clean energy economy. We can either lead in the development of the clean energy economy or we CANÏSTANDÏBACKÏANDÏWAITÏFORÏOTHERSÏTOÏMOVEÏlRSTÏTOWARDÏAÏSUSTAINABLEÏENERGYÏFUTUREÏ For the sake of our economic prosperity and our national security, we must lead. The Department of Energy (DOE) plays a central role in that effort by unleashing technologi- cal innovation, which can create new jobs and industries while building a cleaner, more EFlCIENT ÏANDÏMOREÏCOMPETITIVEÏECONOMY Steven Chu, Secretary of the United States $URINGÏTHISÏTIMEÏOFÏHARDÏBUDGETÏCHOICESÏANDÏlSCALÏCHALLENGE ÏWEÏMUSTÏENSUREÏTHATÏOURÏ Department of Energy WORKÏISÏIMPACTFULÏANDÏEFlCIENTÏ4HEÏQUESTIONÏWEÏFACEÏISÏh(OWÏSHOULDÏTHEÏ$EPARTMENTÏ CHOOSEÏAMONGÏTHEÏMANYÏTECHNICALLYÏVIABLEÏACTIVITIESÏITÏCOULDÏPURSUEvÏ4HISÏlRSTÏ1UA- drennial Technology Review (QTR), launched at the recommendation of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, lays out the principles I believe must GUIDEÏTHESEÏDIFlCULTÏCHOICESÏÏÏ Traditionally, the Department’s energy strategy has been organized along individual program lines and based on annual budgets. With this QTR, we bind together multiple energy technologies, as well as multiple DOE energy technology programs, in the common purpose of solving our energy challenges. In addition, the QTR provides a multi-year framework for our planning. Energy invest- ments are multi-year, multi-decade investments. Given this time horizon, we need to take a longer view. We also recognize that the Department is not the sole agent of energy transformation. Our efforts must be well coordinated with other federal agencies, state and local governments, and with the private sector, who are the major owners, operators, and inves- tors of the energy system. 4HISÏ2EPORTÏSPECIlCALLYÏPLACESÏOURÏEFFORTSÏINÏAÏMULTI AGENCYÏPOLICYÏFRAMEWORKÏ7HILEÏTHEÏ$EPARTMENTSÏ142ÏISÏNOTÏBYÏITSELFÏANÏ INTEGRATEDÏFEDERALÏENERGYÏPOLICY Ï)ÏBELIEVEÏITÏISÏTHEÏNECESSARYÏlRSTÏSTEPÏOFÏAÏMULTI AGENCYÏ1UADRENNIALÏ%NERGYÏ2EVIEWÏTHATÏCOULDÏ dramatically improve the integration and effectiveness of the government’s energy policy. Finally, I would like to commend and thank Under Secretary for Science Steven Koonin for leading this inaugural review. He and his dedicated team sought advice from hundreds of energy stakeholders; engaged experts from academia, industry, and national laboratories; and consulted with our agency counterparts from across the government. As part of the Obama Administration’s com- MITMENTÏTOÏOPENÏGOVERNMENT ÏTHEÏ2EVIEWÏWASÏCONDUCTEDÏTRANSPARENTLYÏANDÏINCLUSIVELYÏ)TÏESTABLISHESÏAÏlRMÏFOUNDATIONÏUPONÏWHICHÏ WEÏCANÏMAKEÏSIGNIlCANTÏPROGRESSÏINÏADDRESSINGÏOURÏ.ATIONSÏENERGYÏCHALLENGES The stakes are high for our country, and I am optimistic that we can still lead the world in technological innovation. The QTR will help ensure that we make thoughtful, wise investments to achieve our national energy goals and to strengthen our economic competitiveness in the 21st century. Steven Chu Secretary of Energy QUADRENNIAL TECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2011 II | MESSAGE FROM THE UNDER SECRETARY FOR SCIENCE MESSAGE FROM THE UNDER SECRETARY FOR SCIENCE 4HEÏMOSTÏIMPORTANTÏGOALÏFORÏTHEÏ$EPARTMENTÏOFÏ%NERGYSÏlRSTÏ1UADRENNIALÏ4ECHNOLOGYÏ2E- VIEWÏ142 ÏISÏTOÏESTABLISHÏAÏFRAMEWORKÏFORÏTHINKINGÏCLEARLYÏABOUTÏAÏNECESSARYÏTRANSFORMA- TIONÏOFÏTHEÏ.ATIONSÏENERGYÏSYSTEMÏ7EÏREALLYÏHAVEÏTWOÏENERGYÏCHALLENGESÏ)NÏTRANSPORTA- TION ÏOURÏCHALLENGEÏISÏENERGYÏSECURITYWEÏCURRENTLYÏSENDÏÏBILLIONÏOUTÏOFÏTHEÏCOUNTRYÏEACHÏ DAYÏTOÏPAYÏFORÏOILÏ)NÏOURÏRESIDENTIAL ÏCOMMERCIAL ÏANDÏINDUSTRIALÏSECTORS ÏOURÏCHALLENGEÏISÏTOÏ PROVIDEÏHEATÏANDÏPOWERÏINÏENVIRONMENTALLYÏRESPONSIBLEÏWAYSÏTHATÏSTRENGTHENÏ53ÏCOMPETI- Steven Koonin, Under TIVENESSÏANDÏPROTECTÏTHEÏCLIMATEÏ4HISÏENERGYÏCONTEXTÏDRIVESÏAÏFRAMEWORKÏOFÏSIXÏSTRATEGIESÏ Secretary for Science of the United States sÏ )NCREASEÏVEHICLEÏEFlCIENCY Ï sÏ )NCREASEÏBUILDINGÏANDÏINDUSTRIALÏEFlCIENCY Ï Department of Energy sÏ %LECTRIFYÏTHEÏVEHICLEÏmEET Ï sÏ -ODERNIZEÏTHEÏGRID ÏANDÏ sÏ $EPLOYÏALTERNATIVEÏHYDROCARBONÏFUELS Ï sÏ $EPLOYÏCLEANÏELECTRICITYÏÏ /URÏ2EVIEWÏHASÏBEENÏDEEPLYÏINFORMEDÏBYÏÏASSESSMENTSÏSPANNINGÏTHEÏFULLÏRANGEÏOFÏENERGYÏTECHNOLOGIESÏINÏWHICHÏTHEÏ$EPARTMENTÏ ISÏENGAGEDÏ0REPAREDÏBYÏTEAMSÏOFÏSENIORÏFEDERALÏSTAFFÏWORKINGÏWITHÏEXPERTSÏINÏOURÏNATIONALÏLABORATORIES ÏTHESEÏASSESSMENTSÏSURVEYÏ THEÏHISTORY ÏSTATUS ÏANDÏPOTENTIALÏOFÏRELEVANTÏTECHNOLOGIESÏ!FTERÏUNDERGOINGÏPEERÏREVIEW ÏTHEÏASSESSMENTSÏWILLÏBEÏPUBLISHEDÏINÏAÏ SUBSEQUENTÏVOLUMEÏ )NÏCARRYINGÏOUTÏTHEÏ142 ÏWEÏHAVEÏESTABLISHEDÏPORTFOLIOÏPRINCIPLESÏTHATÏCANÏGUIDEÏTHEÏ$EPARTMENTSÏINVESTMENTSÏOVERÏTIMEÏWITHÏAÏ DISCIPLINEDÏANDÏSTRATEGICÏAPPROACHÏTOÏCATALYZINGÏINNOVATIONÏ7EÏHAVEÏBENElTEDÏGREATLYÏINÏTHISÏEXERCISEÏFROMÏEXTENSIVEÏCONSULTATIONÏ WITHÏMOREÏTHANÏÏOFÏOURÏSTAKEHOLDERSÏFROMÏINDUSTRY ÏACADEMIA ÏCIVIL SOCIETYÏORGANIZATIONS ÏRESEARCHÏLABS ÏANDÏOTHERÏGOVERNMENTÏ AGENCIESÏ4HEYÏHAVEÏPROVIDEDÏVALUABLEÏINSIGHTSÏINTOÏTHEÏECONOMIC ÏPOLICY ÏANDÏTECHNICALÏDRIVERSÏOFÏOURÏENERGYÏCHALLENGESÏANDÏINÏ IDENTIFYINGÏWHEREÏTHEÏ$EPARTMENTÏDELIVERSÏTHEÏGREATESTÏVALUEÏFORÏEACHÏOFÏOURÏSIXÏSTRATEGIESÏ4HEYÏHAVEÏHELPEDÏUSÏBETTERÏUNDERSTANDÏ THEÏ$EPARTMENTSÏTHREEÏCOREÏMODESÏOFÏACTIONÏHARNESSINGÏRESEARCHÏCAPABILITY ÏPURSUINGÏTARGETEDÏTECHNOLOGYÏINITIATIVES ÏANDÏINFORMINGÏ MARKETSÏANDÏPOLICYÏWITHÏDATAÏANDÏANALYSIS 4HEÏGREATÏCHALLENGEÏOFÏTHISÏREVIEWÏHASÏBEENÏTOÏCOMBINEÏTHOSEÏTHREEÏTHREADSCONTEXT ÏTECHNOLOGYÏASSESSMENT ÏANDÏPORTFOLIOÏPRIN- CIPLESTOÏIDENTIFYÏPRIORITYÏAREASÏANDÏTOÏBALANCEÏTHEÏPORTFOLIOÏBOTHÏwithinÏANDÏacross strategies. By integrating these insights, the 142ÏESTABLISHESÏTHEÏFRAMEWORKÏFORÏINVESTMENTÏINÏENERGY TECHNOLOGYÏDEVELOPMENTÏPATHSÏAGAINSTÏWHICHÏWEÏASÏAÏ$EPARTMENTÏCANÏBEÏ JUDGEDÏÏ )ÏWOULDÏLIKEÏTOÏEXPRESSÏMYÏAPPRECIATIONÏTOÏCOLLEAGUESÏINÏENERGYÏPOLICYÏANDÏTECHNOLOGYÏDEVELOPMENTÏACROSSÏTHEÏ!DMINISTRATIONÏFORÏTHEIRÏ INCISIVEÏFEEDBACK ÏOPENINGÏDOORSÏTOÏIMPROVEDÏCOORDINATIONÏINÏAREASÏOFÏSTRATEGICÏINTERESTÏ4HEÏLEVELÏOFÏINTERAGENCYÏENGAGEMENTÏSIGNALSÏ STRONGÏPOTENTIALÏFORÏTHEÏFEDERALÏPOLICYÏINTEGRATIONÏENVISIONEDÏBYÏTHEÏ0RESIDENTSÏ#OUNCILÏOFÏ!DVISORSÏONÏ3CIENCEÏANDÏ4ECHNOLOGY &INALLY ÏITÏISÏIMPORTANTÏTOÏACKNOWLEDGEÏTHEÏTHOUGHT LEADERSHIPÏANDÏSUPPORTÏOFFEREDÏBYÏ3ECRETARYÏ#HUÏANDÏMEMBERSÏOFÏTHEÏ3TEERINGÏ #OMMITTEE ÏASÏWELLÏASÏTHEÏDEDICATEDÏWRITINGÏTEAMÏTHATÏHASÏSTEWARDEDÏEVERYÏASPECTÏOFÏTHEÏ142ÏWITHÏEXTRAORDINARYÏPERSONALÏCOMMIT- MENTÏ)ÏAMÏHONOREDÏTOÏHAVEÏCHAIREDÏTHISÏINAUGURALÏ2EVIEW ÏANDÏ)ÏBELIEVEÏITSÏINSIGHTSÏCANÏSERVEÏTHEÏ$EPARTMENTÏANDÏTHEÏCOUNTRYÏWELLÏ ASÏWEÏACCELERATEÏENERGY TECHNOLOGYÏINNOVATIONÏTOÏMEETÏTHEÏCHALLENGESÏOFÏOURÏTIME Steven E. Koonin 5NDERÏ3ECRETARYÏFORÏ3CIENCE QUADRENNIAL TECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2011 CONTENTS | III CONTENTS Message from the Secretary of Energy ......................................................................................................... i Message from the Under Secretary for Science ........................................................................................ii Executive Summary........................................................................................................................................vii Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Today’s Energy Landscape .............................................................................................................................. 7 Today’s Energy Challenges ........................................................................................................................... 15 Energy Security ............................................................................................................................................ 16 U.S. Competitiveness .................................................................................................................................. 21 Environmental Impacts ................................................................................................................................. 23 Six Strategies .................................................................................................................................................. 25 Strategies for the Transportation Sector ..................................................................................................... 28 Strategies for the Stationary Sector ............................................................................................................ 30 Principles for the Department’s Investments .............................................................................................. 32 Principles for the Department’s Activities in the Transportation Sector ..................................................... 33 Principles for the Department’s Activities in the Stationary Sector ............................................................ 33 6EHICLEÏ%FlCIENCY ........................................................................................................................................... 35 ICE Improvements ........................................................................................................................................ 39 Lightweighting ............................................................................................................................................
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