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Pareto Securities 11082021 S&T AG Sponsored Research Update 11 August 2021 The 2021 targets are still realistic In Q2, S&T was negatively impacted by the chip crisis as some orders could not be shipped and S&T needed to accept price increases. In addition, it looks increasingly tough for S&T to deliver on its Target price (EUR) 30 acquisition goals due to high valuations of potential targets. Share price (EUR) 19 Notwithstanding, we think that S&T’s objectives for 2021 are still achievable, as long as the current chip shortage does not escalate. Forecast changes We remain buyers of the share, PT EUR 30. % 2021e 2022e 2023e Revenues (4) (4) (1) EBITDA (4) (4) (1) S&T is impacted by the chip shortage EBIT adj (6) (2) (2) EPS reported (7) (3) (2) Although Q2 numbers met consensus expectations, S&T was EPS adj (7) (3) (2) negatively impacted by the chip crisis. Orders worth EUR 38m could Source: Pareto not be shipped in the quarter. Also, S&T needed to accept price increases of ~6% (=EUR 4m impact) in Q2 to mitigate the supply Ticker SANT1.DE, SANT GY shortage. In addition, it looks increasingly tough for S&T to execute Sector Hardware & Equipment on its acquisition strategy as prices of many potential targets are too Shares fully diluted (m) 64.6 Market cap (EURm) 1,258 high in the meantime. Net debt (EURm) -32 Minority interests (EURm) 4 2021 targets still in reach Enterprise value 21e (EURm) 1,230 Notwithstanding, we think that S&T’s objectives for 2021, i.e. Free float (%) 68 revenues of at least EUR 1,400 m and EBITDA of at least EUR 140m, are still realistic, as long as the current chip shortage does not escalate. S&T needs to realize 6% organic growth and some minor Performance acquisitions in H2 to deliver on that goal, provided there is no further EUR headwind from the USD. 32 29 Still substantial upside for the share 26 Although S&T faces some challenges in the remainder of the year, our 23 DCF still indicates substantial upside for the share, supported by additional valuation metrics. We remain buyers, PT EUR 30. 20 17 EURm 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 14 Revenues 1,123 1,255 1,401 1,635 1,883 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 EBITDA 112 130 141 172 207 SANT1.DE CDAX (Rebased) EBIT 62 68 78 106 126 Source: Factset EPS 0.74 0.85 0.91 1.26 1.50 EPS adj 0.74 0.85 0.91 1.26 1.50 Pareto Securities AS has been paid by the issuer to DPS - 0.30 0.32 0.44 0.53 produce this research report. This material is considered by Pareto Securities to qualify as an EV/EBITDA 12.4 9.5 8.7 7.4 6.2 acceptable minor non-monetary benefit according to EV/EBIT 22.4 18.0 15.7 11.9 10.2 the EU MIFID 2 directive. P/E adj 28.6 22.6 21.4 15.5 13.0 Analysts P/B 3.76 3.09 2.84 2.50 2.20 Knud Hinkel ROE (%) 13.5 14.3 13.9 17.2 18.0 +49 69 58997 419, [email protected] Div yield (%) - 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.7 Net debt (30) (20) (32) 1 21 Source: Pareto S&T AG Sponsored Research Update Please refer to important disclosures on the last 5 pages of this document This report is generated for Nicole Nagy S&T AG Sponsored Research Update Wrap-up Q2 numbers Exhibit 1: Q2 Actual Consensus S&T AG Q2 2020 Q2 2021 yoy (%) Q2 2021 Delta (%) Revenues EURm 269 307 14 308 -0.5 IT Services " 114 137 20 IoT Solutions Europe " 157 181 15 IoT Solutions America " 36 28 -23 Gross profit " 103.8 117.0 12.7 121.0 -3.3 margin 38.6% 38.2% -47 bps 39.3% EBITDA " 27.0 30.1 11.5 29.8 1.0 margin 10.1% 9.8% -23 bps 9.7% IT Services " 9.7 13.1 35 IoT Solutions Europe " 16.1 16.1 0 IoT Solutions America " 1.2 0.9 -25 EBIT EURm 13.1 13.9 6.1 14.9 -6.7 margin % 4.9% 4.5% -34 bps 5.2% -69 bps Source: Pareto Securities Research Q2 figures were bang in-line with consensus regarding revenues and EBITDA, but a little bit behind regarding EBIT, probably due to the higher depreciation than in Q1. The gross margin was also a bit down y/y. This is attributable to the chip crisis in our view, which impacted Q2 negatively overall, especially the IoT segments. S&T said that EUR 38m of sales could not be realized in Q2 due to the chip shortage and is investing into new supply chains or even into the adaption of products. Also, S&T has accepted price increases of ~6% (=EUR 4m impact) in Q2 to mitigate the supply shortage. Most of these price increases can be passed to customers that esteem the customized product offering of S&T, but the company believes the topic will still cost S&T EUR 3m on the EBITDA level in 2021. Moreover, the problem will also lead to higher than usual inventories. The good news is that the chip shortage mainly relates to cheaper chips typically used by the car industry, as chip producers give products with a higher value added a higher priority. Second, the functions of some simpler chips can be partly emulated by software, we understand. S&T thinks the shortage will be fully remedied in H1 2023 as a couple of large chip producers such as TSMC and Intel have announced capacity additions. If this turns out to be too optimistic, S&T has the means to work around these problems, albeit at higher production costs, we think. Segment-wise, IoT Solutions Americas did not have a great Q2. Aside from the aforementioned supply chain problems, the sluggish aviation sector and the USD weighed on quarterly results. As a reaction, S&T has initiated a 10% cost reduction program to counter the expected y/y decrease of revenues. Notwithstanding, S&T believes that the segment has the potential to catch up with IoT Europe in the mid-term, not least because S&T’s US-based competitors were better off than S&T in H1. In contrast, IT Service posted good numbers, even though growth was partially supported by the first-time consolidation of Citycomp, which contributed revenues of EUR 9m in Q2 2021. According to S&T, IT Service performed well in Poland and also profited from a higher share of IoT related products in Q2. S&T said in the analyst call, that the planned concentration of the group on IoT related businesses will be accelerated and should be executed before 2025. Accordingly, 11 Aug 2021 Pareto Securities Research 2(14) This report is generated for Nicole Nagy S&T AG Sponsored Research Update S&T has begun to carve out the “pure” IT Service business units without any reference to IoT, that will remain with S&T. The order entry was at similar levels as in Q1 at EUR 406m, clearly surpassing revenues (book-to-bill 1.3x). The backlog now stands at EUR 1.1bn. According to S&T, double ordering is not a topic, and S&T does not expect higher than usual cancellations. Maybe the order volume will dip temporarily because of some de- stocking at some point in time, potentially at the end of 2022. S&T said that it will probably go for less M&A than initially expected due to high valuations in the market. For 2021, one can expect the acquisition of revenues of EUR 40-50m. As S&T expects prices to drop next year, it anticipates acquiring companies with cumulated revenues of EUR 150m in 2022 and 2023 each. If these targets cannot be met, S&T will consider the cancellation of shares acquired in the current share repurchase, but this is clearly not S&T’s first choice. 11 Aug 2021 Pareto Securities Research 3(14) This report is generated for Nicole Nagy S&T AG Sponsored Research Update Estimates update Exhibit 2: Updated estimates Profit & Loss 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e Revenue 386 468 504 882 991 1,123 1,255 1,401 1,635 1,883 2,096 % yoy 14.1% 21.4% 7.6% 75.1% 12.3% 13.3% 11.7% 11.6% 16.7% 15.2% 11.3% EBITDA 23 28 34 68 91 112 130 141 172 207 231 % of sales 5.9% 6.1% 6.8% 7.7% 9.1% 9.9% 9.6% 10.1% 10.5% 11.0% 11.0% EBIT 17 21 24 42 62 62 69 78 106 126 136 % of sales 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 6.2% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 6.5% 6.7% 6.5% Pretax Profit 15 18 20 35 56 54 61 69 97 117 127 % of sales 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 5.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 5.9% 6.2% 6.1% Net Profit 13 16 15 23 45 49 56 59 81 97 102 % of sales 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.9% EPS 0.32 0.36 0.33 0.43 0.70 0.74 0.86 0.91 1.26 1.50 1.58 % yoy 5.8% 14.8% -8.9% 30.8% 61.3% 6.4% 15.0% 6.2% 38.4% 19.2% 5.8% DPS 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.00 0.30 0.32 0.44 0.53 0.56 Payout ratio 22% 22% 30% 30% 23% 0% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% Source: S&T, Pareto Securities Research Despite the chip crisis and the lower than expected M&A activity, S&T confirmed the targets for 2021, namely revenues of at least EUR 1,400 m and EBITDA of at least EUR 140m.
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