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Global Markets ESG Insights Global Markets ESG Insights 7th July 2021 Derek Halpenny Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities Lee Hardman Currency Analyst Ehsan Khoman Head of Emerging Markets Research – EMEA Carlo Mareels Financial Credit (Europe) Konrad Boszko Corporate Credit (Europe) A member of MUFG, a global financial group Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Top↓ ガイド ガイド Top↓ 1.11 9.20 9.20 1.11 2.11 8.20 8.20 2.11 3.11 7.20 7.20 3.11 3.71 6.60 6.60 3.71 4.11 6.20 Contents 6.20 4.11 . ESG considerations in global macro p 3 . ESG considerations in FX and derivatives p 11 . ESG consideration in credit markets p 20 10.51 0.20 0.20 10.51 11.31 1.00 1.00 11.31 12.31 2.00 2.00 12.31 18.71 8.40 8.40 18.71 19.31 9.00 9.00 19.31 2 ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Top↓ ガイド ガイド Top↓ 1.11 9.20 9.20 1.11 2.11 8.20 8.20 2.11 3.11 7.20 7.20 3.11 3.71 6.60 6.60 3.71 4.11 6.20 6.20 4.11 ESG considerations in global macro 10.51 0.20 0.20 10.51 11.31 1.00 1.00 11.31 12.31 2.00 2.00 12.31 18.71 8.40 8.40 18.71 19.31 9.00 9.00 19.31 3 ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Top↓ ガイド ガイド Top↓ 1.11 9.20 9.20 1.11 ESG vs conventional equity index performance│Europe trails the US and EMs 2.11 8.20 Mixed developments 8.20 2.11 3.11 7.20 Contrary to 2020, the US ESG index has produced better results than its conventional variant since March 2021, whilst European peers have trailed 7.20 3.11 3.71 6.60 EM ESG index has demonstrated consistent outperformance in 2021 – the only gauge relative to the US and Europe, showing long-term successes 6.60 3.71 4.11 6.20 6.20 4.11 Europe ESG continues to underperform Europe 114 MSCI Europe ESG and conventional index (rebased 1 January 2021 = 100) Conventional 112 . Since the start of 2021, MSCI 110 ESG MSCI Europe Index Europe ESG leaders index has 108 consistently underperformed its 106 MSCI Europe ESG Leaders Index conventional peer 104 . This is part could be explained by 102 either overvaluation of ESG 100 across Europe given their sheer 98 early dominance in the space and/or EU taxonomy uncertainties 02-Apr 09-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 04-Jun 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 07-May 14-May 21-May 28-May US ESG has outperformed since March US 10.51 0.20 114 MSCI US ESG and conventional index (rebased 1 January 2021 = 100) ESG 0.20 10.51 112 . Contrary to 2020, the MSCI US Conventional 110 ESG leaders index has 11.31 1.00 MSCI US ESG Leaders 1.00 11.31 108 outperformed its conventional peer MSCI US 106 since the start of 2021 12.31 2.00 104 . Investor concerns on inflation, 2.00 12.31 102 rising rates and the impact on 100 long-duration assets has led to an 98 underperformance of conventionals relative to ESG 02-Apr 09-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 04-Jun 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 07-May 14-May 21-May 28-May Emerging EM ESG is consistently outperforming Emerging Markets Markets 116 MSCI EM ESG and conventional index (rebased 1 January 2021 = 100) . EM ESG equities have 114 outperformed conventionals this 112 MSCI EM ESG (Net Total Return) year as investors turn to cheap 110 ESG 108 MSCI EM (Net Total Return) assets that are expected to Conventional 106 increasingly meet ESG targets 104 . With higher returns on offer 102 100 without a materially larger level of risk taking, EMs offer an 18.71 8.40 98 8.40 18.71 increasingly attractive risk-reward 19.31 9.00 value proposition 9.00 19.31 02-Apr 09-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 04-Jun 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 07-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 4 (Source) Bloomberg, MUFG Research ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Top↓ ガイド ガイド Top↓ 1.11 9.20 9.20 1.11 ESG vs conventional bond index performance│ESG outperforms during risk-on 2.11 8.20 ESG has performed well during uncertainty this year 8.20 2.11 3.11 7.20 Despite the rise in Treasury yield that has compressed excess returns, US and European ESG corporate indices slightly outperform conventionals 7.20 3.11 3.71 6.60 ESS bond strategies have proven to be beneficial during periods of market stress and rising interest rates with continued outperformance 6.60 3.71 4.11 6.20 6.20 4.11 US ESG slightly outperforms US 0 MSCI US Corporate ESG and conventional index (rebased 1 January 2021 = 100) -1 . US ESG weighted bond indexes have marginally outperformed -2 ESG conventionals this year, despite -3 Conventional the rise in US Treasury yields that -4 has compressed excess returns MSCI US Corporate ESG Index -5 . ESG strategies have proven to be Total Returns (%) Returns Total US Corporate Conventional Index beneficial during periods of market -6 stress and rising interest rates 02-Apr 09-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 04-Jun 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 07-May 14-May 21-May 28-May Europe ESG slightly outperforms Europe 10.51 0.20 0.4 MSCI Europe Corporate ESG and conventional index (rebased 1 January 2021 = 100) 0.20 10.51 0.2 . Similarly to the US, European 11.31 1.00 0.0 ESG weighted bond indexes have 1.00 11.31 -0.2 marginally outperformed -0.4 conventionals this year, with 12.31 2.00 ESG 2.00 12.31 -0.6 broadly analogous rationales MSCI Euro Corporate ESG Index Conventional -0.8 Total Returns (%) Returns Total -1.0 Euro Corporate Conventional Index -1.2 02-Apr 09-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 04-Jun 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 07-May 14-May 21-May 28-May Emerging Markets EM ESG materially outperforms notably during risk-on Emerging Markets 0.5 ESG Asia and conventional Asia credit (rebased 1 January 2021 = 100) . As with the equity counterparts, 0.0 ESG bonds are outperforming ESG conventionals as investors turn to -0.5 Conventional cheap assets that are expected to -1.0 increasingly meet ESG targets – this ESG EM Asia Credit Index trend is set to continue given the -1.5 ESG Asia Conventional Credit Index increasing focus on announcing and Total Returns (%) Returns Total -2.0 executing ESG strategies across the 18.71 8.40 8.40 18.71 EM complex 19.31 9.00 9.00 19.31 02-Apr 09-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 04-Jun 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 14-May 21-May 28-May 07-May 5 (Source) Bloomberg, MUFG Research ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 Left→ 1.16 7.16 7.56 12.16 13.56 13.96 16.76 17.16 19.96 20.36 21.76 26.36 ガイド 12.60 6.60 6.20 1.60 ←0.20 0.20→ 3.00 3.40 6.20 6.60 8.00 12.60 Top↓ ガイド ガイド Top↓ 1.11 9.20 9.20 1.11 ESG vs conventional ETFs performance│clean energy retrace early 2021 gains 2.11 8.20 Overbought ESG fears prompting a rotation to cheaper shares 8.20 2.11 3.11 7.20 Following the rapid outperformance earlier this year on policy optimism, clean energy ETFs have all but erased gains since March 2021 7.20 3.11 3.71 6.60 With investment strategies historically following results, markets have remained susceptible to outflows leading to an easing of ESG ETFs 6.60 3.71 4.11 6.20 6.20 4.11 ESG clean energy ETFs retracing early 2021 gains Comments Performance of clean energy ESG ETFs vs conventional market (rebased 1 January 2021 = 100) 120 .
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