International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology Vol. 29, No. 6s, (2020), pp. 3064 – 3073 ` Analysing the Factors Affecting Runs Scored by Batsmen in the ICC T20 World Cup 2016 Siddhartho Das Symbiosis Institute of Business Management Pune; Symbiosis International (Deemed University) Pune [email protected] Abstract The ICC T20 World Cup[3] is an international tournament organised by the International Cricket Council. It is played among 16 teams. The top 10 teams are selected based on their ICC International T20 rankings up until a given deadline. The remaining teams are determined by a qualifying tournament, which is held just prior to the tournament. It comprises of associate nations. Most of these 6 teams have not been given Test match status. Up until now, the tournament has been held every two years. However, the next edition will take place in 2020. It will be hosted by Australia. For the first time, it will be held after a gap of four years. The tournament has been played 6 times so far. Only the West Indies, the current champions, has won the tournament multiple times. The first ever T20 World Cup took place in South Africa in 2007. It was won by India, who emerged victorious in a closely contested final against their arch rivals, Pakistan. This set the tone for further editions of this tournament and international T20 cricket in general. England were the hosts of the 2009 edition and it was won by Pakistan. The third edition took place in 2010 and was won by England. The fourth edition, held in 2012, was won by The West Indies. The fifth edition, held in 2014, was won by Sri Lanka. This paper analyses the key factors affecting the batting performance of the top batsmen in the top 8 teams. Variables such as age, ODI average, T20 average, strike rates in both formats, number of fours and sixes were used to develop a non-linear regression model. The proposed model aims to provide insights on the factors which should be taken into account while the team management select their batsmen in the upcoming ICC World T20 in 2020. Index Terms: T20 World Cup, runs, scored, ODI, non-linear regression, average, strike rate 1 Introduction: Cricket, as a sport, has evolved progressively over the years. (Altham, 1962)[7]. The set of laws which had been initially set have been continuously modified in light of certain situations, which arise time to time and have forced some changes. (Woolmer, Noakes)[1]. The oldest and most traditional format of cricket, that is, test cricket, is contested over a maximum period of 5 days. It continues to flourish even today and throws some eagerly waited international matches, which are played around the world. Changes to the sport like the limited-overs format were thought of and One Day Internationals (ODI) was introduced during the 1970s deliver a more exciting and attractive form of the sport to the fans. Many features of T20 cricket are in common with One- day cricket. There are, however, slight differences in the rules when it comes to the duration of the field restrictions, maximum overs allotted to a bowler, powerplay duration, etc. One-day cricket was introduced in the. 1970s. While the batting side gets 50 overs to set a total in One-day cricket, it gets reduced to 20 overs in T20 cricket. Twenty20 cricket became the newest format of cricket when it was in English domestic cricket in 2003 (Sharma et ISSN: 2005-4238 IJAST 3064 Copyright ⓒ 2020 SERSC International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology Vol. 29, No. 6s, (2020), pp. 3064 – 3073 ` al., 2012)[2]. This shorter form of the game gained recognition and stadium attendances quickly surpassed that of domestic limited-overs cricket. Since its beginning, the commercial value of Twenty20 has led the ICC and domestic cricket boards to host competitions in all parts of the world.(Swartz, Perera)[3]. As the format gained more worldwide popularity, it brought in more glitz and glamour from other sectors such as the entertainment industry and other huge businesses. They invested a lot of cash to have full or partial ownership of a team playing in domestic tournaments.(Petersen et al., 2008)[4]. The Indian Premier League is easily the most cash rich domestic tournament held in cricket every year. It makes huge sums of money, which indicates the commercial value of this format. With such huge prize money on the line, the coaching staff make use of all possible technology available to get a better insight of themselves and their opponents. (Moore et al., 2012)[5]. Twenty20 cricket, like the other formats, is made up of two halves. These are known as the batting and bowling. The batting phase gives us a display of the attacking abilities of a team as they look to set a competitive total on the scoreboard. The bowling phase gives us a display of their capability to defend a score - be it big or small, by being as economical as possible. (Douglas and Tam, 2010)[6]. Each side is given 20 overs to bat and set a total on the board. The first six overs constitute the powerplay phase, where fielding restrictions apply. The combination of players heavily depends upon their performance in the limited-overs format games coming into this tournament. In this paper, we see the key statistics of the previous year (2015) and which ones significantly affected runs scored by the batsmen in the T20 World Cup 2016. 2 Literature Review Statistics feature heavily in cricket. In a country like India, where cricket holds a special place in most people’s hearts, many of them are keen followers of stats as well. There have been several studies associated with cricket and some have been reported in this literature review. Clarke developed optimal batting strategies using the dynamic programming. Batting averages and strike rates in different scenarios were proposed by Kimber, Hansford and Damodaran. Barr and Kantor gave theories to support them. Batting performance in test matches was studied by Borooah and Mangan. Norman, Clark, Ovens and Bukeit applied mathematical modelling to optimize a team’s roll. Lewis used the Duckworth and Lewis method to conduct his analysis. Graphical method used by Van Staden, Sabermetrics principle by Lakkarahi and performance analysis by Lemmer were some of the prominent earlier methods used in batting and bowling performance analysis. Saikia evaluated the performance of all-rounders in IPL. Many studies have been conducted on team selection. A selection strategy based on strike rate and ODI batting average was studied by Barr and Kantor. Another study to find the most optimal batting order was done by Swartz. Their model was based on multinomial regression. Models to pick players in fantasy league teams in ODI cricket was studied by Bretteny and Lemmer. Integer programming and integer optimization methods were used to design and study this model. Yet, this approach couldn’t be validated as it did not result in optimal results after selecting the team. Notational Analysis Scorebook was one of the earliest methods to perform match analysis. However, it had it its limitations when it comes to providing useful analysis. In 1987, a new system called Cricket-stat was created by Croucher. It provided a new dimension to analysis as it gave review on technical and strategic aspects as well. Events such as the runs scored by batsmen, the result of every delivery, along with the length of the ball and the direction in which it his by the batsman was easily recorded and could be analysed. This provided scope for further technical analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the players. However, the data entry into the system took a large amount of time, which proved to be quite a hindrance. The ISSN: 2005-4238 IJAST 3065 Copyright ⓒ 2020 SERSC International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology Vol. 29, No. 6s, (2020), pp. 3064 – 3073 ` operator had to manually record data and transfer it to an information system, which was a cumbersome process. In 1998, Hughes and Bell established a detailed ‘perfor- mance profile’ of cricketers, which identified performance parameters in terms of selecting, executing and the final result. The strengths and weaknesses of the bowler were mapped with their line and length of their deliveries and its outcome. The sample comprised of the 22 players from Australia and England who played in the One-day series in 1997. In 2004, a new system called Feedback Cricket was introduced. This recorded video data of every delivery bowled by a bowler and makes it easier to conduct analysis post match. The collection, modification and removal of match variables was simplified and the results were immediate and quickly available. This system has been used by many cricket teams - both domestic as well as international, around the world, which is a testament to its success. Strategies and Tactics Tactics and strategies play a crucial role in the success of any team in any sport. Players and coaches often come up with strategies to maximize their strengths and to improve on the weaknesses. Petersen stated that the strategies needed for success in T20 cricket is quite different from the other formats of cricket. However, in 2008, Justham [10] stated that bowlers don’t bring much changes in their bowling patterns across various formats. The results from their study showed that bowlers were unable to vary their line and length. In contrast, the batsmen made significant changes to their strategies when it comes to Test, One-Day or Twenty20 cricket. This study showed that batsmen’s playing style became more attacking and free-flowing in the shorter format, which can be attributed to the less number of overs to play.