A timely analysis of recent economic events March 4, 2014 Some Implications of the Tensions in Ukraine After a tense start to the week, market angst over the tensions between Ukraine ECONOMIC RESEARCH and Russia has eased. Russia’s stock market retraced half of Monday’s losses, www.bmocm.com/economics the ruble firmed from record lows, and the Ukrainian hryvnia has stabilized. 1-800-613-0205 While Russia’s troops on the border with Ukraine have returned to their bases, Benjamin Reitzes, the risk is clearly that the situation destabilizes further. Indeed, fears remain Senior Economist that Russia could make a push (official or unofficial) into other Russian-
[email protected] speaking provinces in Ukraine under the guise of protecting Russian interests. 416-359-5628 And, the standoff over Crimea is not over yet, though a referendum due March 30 in this Russian speaking province points to increasing Russian influence at the expense of Ukraine’s central government. This crisis is not over yet. As such, it’s worthwhile to take account of the potential economic ramifications. Clearly, an intensified conflict would be negative for the region and global economy. The steep deterioration in relations with Russia is broadly a negative. More specifically, the U.S., EU and Western allies have threatened Russia with economic sanctions and potential expulsion from the G8. The consequences could be quite severe for the Russian economy, depending on the extent of the sanctions. However, Russia is a key supplier of oil and natural gas to Europe, which, along with extensive direct business interest in the country, could make the EU reluctant to apply harsh sanctions.