Chapter 2 | Continent Profile Africa | Version 3 A High-Level View Of The Continent 2 Africa is approximately 30.2 million km ​ and home to about 15% of the world’s ​ population, an estimated 1.3 billion people (UN World Population Prospects, 2019). In continent size and population Africa is number two after Asia; both are forecast to be the highest areas of world population growth in the coming decades. By the end of the century Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be the sub-region with the largest global population in the world. There are 54 sovereign states and 55 members of the African Union; in June 2019 the AU suspended Sudan’s membership. The continent is divided into five sub-regions; North, East, West, South and Central. Africa has collectively enjoyed significant economic growth in recent years. The ability to continue generating growth, creating jobs and enabling both national development and regional integration will be affected by safety and security risks, travel and trade barriers, infrastructure investment, digitalisation, demographic shifts, and global regulatory frameworks (World Economic Forum Strategic Intelligence – Africa Aviation, Travel and Tourism 2019). The continent’s challenge is to ensure that economic growth is inclusive, and leads to both more jobs and less poverty. Efforts to make this happen include public-private projects like the Africa Competitiveness Report and the Grow Africa partnership. However, lingering challenges include terrorism and security threats, relatively poor agricultural productivity, and significant youth unemployment. African middle class currently at 350 million will double in the next decade or two with consumer spending set to triple to US$2.2T by 2030. The primary driver for the future middle-class spending is in healthcare and education. Tourism Barometer Inbound arrivals. Africa welcomed only 5% (67 million) of the 1.3 billion global outbound travellers in 2018 (UNWTO International Tourism Highlights, 2019). Although a healthy growth of 7%, ahead of the worldwide average of 5% in volume, these 67 million visitors only brought US$ 38 billion (3% of global receipts) to the continent in 2018. Growth is being driven by North Africa, with Sub-Saharan Africa in line with the global trend. The continent is however under-performing in receipts growth at 2% versus the global average of 4%. Source, UNWTO International Tourism Highlights, 2019 Morocco leading in international arrivals Travellers were particularly attracted to Morocco and Tunisia in North Africa that saw the most significant growth year on year of 8.3% and 17.7% respectively. Morocco leads in Africa accounting for 18.3% of the continent’s international tourist arrivals at 12.3m and 20% of receipts ($7.8m). With its close proximity to Europe and its low travel risk rating (Source, 2019 Travel Risk Map – International SOS) the main source markets are France and Spain (51% of total arrivals in 2018); other European countries (Germany, UK, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands) accounted for 25% of arrivals whilst the USA was only 3%. (Source, Observatoire du Tourisme, Maroc, Tourism Statistics in Morocco, October 2018). In Tunisia European tour operators are once again including the destination on programmes following its removal after the 2015 terrorism attacks, and for both countries liberalised visa policies has had a transformative effect on Chinese tourism in recent years, dramatically lifting visitor numbers (Source, ForwardKeys 2018). South Africa attracts lion’s share of Sub-Saharan international arrivals Sub-Saharan Africa saw a 5% increase in arrivals (43.3 million), with South Africa taking the lion’s share, attracting 10.472m (24% of Sub-Sahara and 15.6% of Africa) in 2018, and accounting for 23% of total international tourist receipts in Africa ($8.9m). Total African arrivals to South Africa in 2018 were 7.786 million (3% growth over 2017), of which 7.445 million were by land and 341,390 by air. The main attraction for African travellers to South Africa is shopping; more than 90% of arrivals are from neighbouring countries visiting 10 and more times each (source, SA Tourism Performance Report 2018). Regional Arrivals To South Africa And The Western Cape Destinations in Africa that have shown positive growth to South Africa over the past few years in land markets are Malawi (12.2% growth) and Zimbabwe (8.3%) for VFR, and shopping for business and personal items. In air markets growth has come from Angola (31.6% for holiday, VFR and business travel), DRC (19.1% for VFR and holiday travel), Ghana (18.6% for MICE, VFR and holiday travel), Nigeria (5.6% for holiday, MICE and VFR), and Ethiopia (5% for MICE and VFR). ​ The Western Cape accounted for 16% (1.673m) of total international arrivals to South Africa of which 16.5% were from the rest of Africa. Namibia is the ​ ​ ​ largest African source market accounting for 105,817 arrivals (38%) in 2018, with a decrease in arrivals over 2017 of 12.2%. Total arrivals from Africa decreased in 2018 by 15.5% from 324,265 visitors in 2017. Africa outbound tourism Africa accounts for only 3.2% of global outbound tourism i.e. 45.5m of the total with a growth over 2017 of 7% (Source, UNWTO 2019 Tourism Highlights - region of origin). The top outbound markets by value in Africa are: Source WTTC Economic Impact 2018 country reports Country Outbound Arrivals W. % Air Visa Value to S.A. Cape Market Access US$ million 2018 arrivals share 2018 Nigeria 4,614 53,769 10,257 19% Required Kenya 2,322 29,193 3,418 12% Direct Required Ghana 1,273 20,999 3,802 18% Required Tanzania 990 36,473 3,203 9% 90 days Uganda 502 13,686 1,573 11% Required Ethiopia 404 9,031 1,371 15% Direct Required Namibia 430 200,367 102,403 51% Direct 90 days Zimbabwe 410 2,208,930 34,561 1.5% Direct 90 days Angola 310 64,859 16,788 26% Direct 30 days Zambia 213 165,968 4,614 2.7% 90 days The largest two outbound African markets by value (excluding South Africa) are Nigeria and Kenya. 35% of Nigerians, 15% of Kenyans and only 23% of all ​ ​ Africans reported having travelled by air in the past 24 months (African Traveller Report Sabre, November 2016). Travel destinations selected for possible future travel by the top two outbound ​ ​ markets (by value) are: Through the Cape Town Air Access initiative, there is a direct flight from Cape Town to Nairobi (Kenya). There is no direct flight as yet between Cape Town and Nigeria. Visas are required for Nigerian and Kenyan passport holders to travel to South Africa. Consumer Profile | Nigeria For the average Nigerian, the typical concept of a holiday, to take off from work and relax, a time to see new places and culture for pleasure is foreign. For Nigerians, the business of living takes priority and for those that can splash out on a holiday, soaking up culture is not on the agenda. Holidays are often combined with business travel to help cover the travel and personal costs. The personal cost is all about shopping, not only for oneself, but the family’s ever-expanding wardrobes. Making destinations like Dubai a top destination for Nigerians. "Our idea of a good holiday is when we return, to be able to deck your wife's or girlfriend's neck in new jewellery, wear new shoes and dresses and stock your living room with new electronic gadgets" Sola Odunfa When abroad, activities include visiting Nigerian restaurants and pubs to visit and compare with the fare at home. And then to shop. Museums, places of cultural significance and other top tourists attractions do not feature on the Nigerian travel itinerary. For those that can afford to “take a holiday”, the preferred time to travel is summer, with the months leading up to Christmas. Everyone travel’s light leaving Nigeria, and come home with extra bags to carry all the purchases from their cash-backed shopping. Consumer Profile | Ghana ​ A survey by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) on Outbound Tourism in the country revealed that more than half of expenditure by Ghanaians travelling ​ outside their country (53.9%) was on education and training; 16.5% on religion and pilgrimage and 13.37% on visiting friends and relatives. 80% of those who travelled visited other African countries. Similar to the Nigerian market, the demand for cultural services and activities was the lowest. Traveller Profile (infographic due) ● African travellers account for 74% (7,786m) of all international travellers to South Africa ● 94% repeat (purpose of travel is visiting friends and relatives) ● Average length of stay: 9.4 nights ● Purpose of visit: 45% visiting friends and relatives, 28% personal/business/shopping; 28% holiday; 4% MICE ● Age profile: 19% (18 – 24 years old), 42% (25 – 34 years old); 27% (35 – 44 years old), 11% (45 years plus) ● Average spend per traveller (per trip): R 4,600 ● Accommodation: 85% friends and family; 5.5% hotels; 4% self-catering and 2% guest houses Source South African Tourism, Tourism Performance, 2018 Barriers To Growth For The Western Cape ● The current Western Cape tourism offering does not appeal to the present and future African outbound traveller ● Lack of direct air access to Cape Town (and the high cost of air travel from rest of Africa to Cape Town) ● Visa regulations. Visa policies are among the most important governmental formalities negatively influencing tourism in Africa. As the new generation of the middle-class rise in Africa, spending on holidays, shopping and education is increasing. But countries like South Africa may not benefit as many Africans opt to travel to Europe. The primary reason cited is the ease of travelling in the Schengen area, which allows access to 26 countries within Europe on one visa.