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Professor Tony Travers (LSE) PSA Media Briefing Mayoral Contests Tuesday 12th April 2016 Professor Tony Travers (LSE) Phone: 07958-005078 / Email: [email protected] Professor Robin Hambleton (University of the West of England) Phone: 0117 924 9844 / Email: [email protected] #PSAmedia Tel: 020 7321 2545 Email: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] PSA Media Briefing Tuesday 12th April 2016 Professor Tony Travers London School of Economics Phone: 07958-005078 Email: [email protected] 4/11/16 The London Mayor and Assembly elections Tony T r a v e r s LSE [email protected] 07958-005078 Four mayoral elections in 2016 • London • fifth such contest • Bristol • second such contest • Salford • Second such contest • Liverpool • first such contest London-wide elections since 1965 - vote share Con Lab Lib/LD Others Turnout 1964 41.7 46.0 10.3 2.0 44.2 1967 54.3 34.6 9.1 2.0 41.1 1970 51.6 40.5 5.4 2.5 35.2 1973 38.0 47.4 12.5 2.1 37.0 1977 52.5 32.4 7.8 7.3 43.4 1981 39.7 41.8 14.4 4.1 44.4 GRE UKIP Others 2000 29.0 30.3 14.8 11.1 2.1 12.8 31.0 2004 28.5 25.0 16.9 8.6 8.4 12.7 37.0 2008 34.6 27.6 11.4 8.4 1.9 16.0 45.2 2012 32.0 41.1 6.8 8.5 4.5 7.0 37.5 Vote share in GLC elections and GLA Assembly ‘list’ elections. NB different voting systems in use for GLC and GLA 1 4/11/16 London-wide elections since 1965 - seats won (GL C/L ondon Assembly) Con Lab Lib/LD Others 1964 75 41 0 0 1967 92 24 0 0 1970 76 40 0 0 1973 38 67 2 0 1977 64 28 0 0 1981 41 50 1 0 GRE UKIP Others 2000 9 9 4 3 0 0 2004 9 7 5 2 2 0 2008 11 8 3 2 0 1 (BNP) 2012 9 12 2 2 0 0 Vote share in GLC elections and GLA Assembly ‘list’ elections. NB different voting systems in use for GLC and GLA DiFFerence between London vote share and GB vote share, General Elections,1955-2015 15 10 5 Con 0 Lab -5 Lib/LD Others -10 -15 GLA voting systems • Mayor: ‘Supplementary Vote’ • 1st preFerence • May use 2nd preFerence • If no candidate receives 50% oF 1st preFerences, then top two candidates go Forward, others knocked out and their 2nd preFerence votes (For top two) counted • Assembly: ‘Additional member’ • 14 First-past-the-post constituencies • 11 ‘top-up’ members From party list election • overall result to deliver broad ‘proportionality’ 2 4/11/16 London mayoral election - 1stand 2nd preFerence Ken Livingstone Steve Norris/Boris Johnson Margin (Ind/Lab) (Con) 2000 57.9 42.1 15.8 2004 55.4 44.6 10.8 2008 46.8 53.2 6.4 2012 48.5 51.5 3.0 Mayoral election 2000 2000 1stpreF 1st+2nd Ken Livingstone (Ind) 39% 58% Steve Norris (Con) 27% 42% Frank Dobson (Lab) 13% Susan Kramer (LD) 12% Ram Gidoomal (CPA) 2.5% Darren Johnson (Green) 2.2% Michael Newland (BNP) 2.0% Damian Hockney (UKIP) 1.0% Mayoral election 2004 2004 1st preF 1st+2nd Ken Livingstone (Lab) 37% 55% Steve Norris (Con) 29% 45% Simon Hughes (LD) 15% Francis Maloney (UKIP) 6.2% Lindsey German (Respect) 3.3% Julian Leppert(BNP) 3.1% Darren Johnson (Gre) 3.1% 3 4/11/16 Mayoral election 2008 2008 1stpreF 1st+2nd Boris Johnson (Con) 43% 53% Ken Livingstone (Lab) 37% 47% Brian Paddick (LD) 10% Sian Berry (Gre) 3.2% Richard Barnbrook (BNP) 2.9% Alan Criag (CC) 1.6% Gerard Batten (UKIP) 0.9% Mayoral election 2012 2012 1stpreF 1st+2nd Boris Johnson (Con) 44.0% 51.5% Ken Livingstone (Lab) 40.3% 48.5% Jenny Jones (Gre) 4.5% Brian Paddick (LD) 4.2% Siobhan Benita 3.8% Lawrence James Webb (UKIP) 2.0% Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) 1.3% Mayoral election 2016 [poll oF polls*] 2016 1stpreF 1st+2nd SadiqKhan (Lab) 46% 54 Zac Goldsmith (Con) 38% 46 Caroline Pidgeon (LD) 5% Peter Whittle (UKIP)) 5% Sian Berry (Gre) 4% George Galloway (Respect) 1% Others 1% 4 4/11/16 Rallings & Thrasher’s NEVS projection - PSA media brieFing 5.4.16 Suggests a 3.5% Lab to Con swing Assembly vote %, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 - London-wide party list Con Lab LD Green UKIP BN P Other 2000 29.0 30.3 14.8 11.1 2.0 2.9 9.9 2004 28.5 25.0 16.9 8.6 8.4 4.8 7.9 2008 34.6 27.6 11.4 8.4 1.9 5.4 10.6 2012 32.0 41.1 6.8 8.5 4.5 2.1 4.9 2016 (projection) 30-31 36-37 7-8 6-7 7-8 0-1 8-9 Source (2000 to 2012 results) : David Cowling; Projections :Tony Travers Assembly election 2016 Cons tituency 2012 result Swing to change Pos s ible change? Likely? Barnet & Camden Lab 0.8 Con gain from Lab? 10% Bexley & Bromley Con 13.0 No Brent & Harrow Lab 8.9 No City & Eas t Lab 24.5 No Croydon & Sutton Con 2.5 Lab gain from Con? 5% Ealing & Hillingdon Lab 3.4 Con gain from Lab? 5% Enfield & Haringey Lab 11.8 No Greenwich & Lewisham Lab 13.7 No Ha v eri ng & Redbridge Con 1.0 Lab gain from Con? 10% Lewisham & Southwark Con 15.1 No Merton & Wandsworth Con 2.5 Lab gain from Con? 10% North East Lab 16.9 No South West Con 4.5 No West Central Con 9.2 No 5 4/11/16 Assembly composition Con Lab LD Green UKIP BN P 2000 9 9 4 3 0 0 2004 9 7 5 2 2 0 2008 11 8 3 2 0 1 2012 9 12 2 2 0 0 2016 (projection) 8-9 11-12 2-3 1-2 1-2 0 Given voting system and current polls, significant change unlikely Changes to flow from changes in Assembly ‘list’ vote share Minority ethnic voting – 2015 GE So u rce: Su rvati o n for British Future, May 2015 Religion and voting – 2015 GE - within ‘minority’ vote Source: Survation for British Future, May 2015 6 4/11/16 Conclusions • London has, marginally, become more of a ‘Labour city’ • since 1997 • if Sad iq Khan were to win, less revealing about GB politics than English local elections • There is some evidence that the minority ethnic vote may be shifting towards the Conservatives • Outer London is now less easily won by the Conservatives than in the past, because the city’s population is more mixed (by income groups) in both inner and outer London • The Mayoral model is now embedded • 2016 is the first ‘non-celebrity’ contest • Expect the result late on Friday May 6 (at best)….. The London Mayor and Assembly elections Tony T r a v e r s LSE [email protected] 07958-005078 7 PSA Media Briefing Tuesday 12th April 2016 Robin Hambleton, Professor of City Leadership Centre for Sustainable Planning and Environments, University of the West of England, Bristol Phone: 0117 924 9844 Email: [email protected] Briefing Note by Robin Hambleton 6 April 2016 Briefing Note for Political Studies Association (PSA) Media Briefing on Mayoral Contests at the Institute for Government, London on 12 April 2016 Mayoral governance in Bristol: Has it made a difference? Robin Hambleton In a referendum, held in May 2012, the citizens of Bristol decided to introduce a model of governance headed by a directly elected mayor. The following November fifteen candidates, more than in any other mayoral contest in England, ran for the newly created office of mayor. To the surprise of commentators in the media, as well as the established political parties, Bristol citizens, quirky as always, elected an independent politician. George Ferguson, a respected architect with a good track record of carrying out imaginative urban regeneration projects in the city, was able to beat Marvin Rees, the Labour Party candidate, his main rival, into second place. The result attracted national news. Ferguson became the first independent politician to lead a major English city, and he is now campaigning to win a second term in May. Once again, Marvin Rees, who was born and bred in Bristol and offers a progressive agenda for the city, has been chosen by the Labour Party to run for mayor. While there are still a few weeks to go, and there are other strong candidates in the race, it is likely that that the final count on the night of 5 May 2016 will boil down to a run off between the two leading candidates who fought it out in 2012. Has having a directly mayor made a difference to the governance of the city? A new report, co-authored by myself and Dr David Sweeting of the University of Bristol, on the impact of the changes made to the governance of Bristol in 2012 – The Impact of Mayoral Governance in Bristol - shows that the mayoral model has provided a platform for high profile, visible city leadership. In this study we gathered views about the governance of the city from several hundred Bristol citizens in 2012 and 2014 – before and after the introduction of mayoral governance into the city in November 2012.
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