Our Precarious Earth and Its Biosphere
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I. The Environment 1 The Earth’s Biosphere: Our Life Support System Our common shared biosphere is our planet’s life support system, capturing light via photosynthesis, conserving energy and matter, and obeying the basic laws of physics and thermodynamics. These laws are fundamental, governing all occurrences in the universe. All biological systems must abide by them. We must function within their confines. In spite of the universality of these laws, problems arise because of humans and their activities. There are simply too many of us for our planet. We are consuming too many irreplaceable resources and causing long-lasting planetary damage. This last problem is tremendously enhanced by human greed and a disregard by many for the biosphere. When our numbers were much smaller, our impact could be absorbed. This is not so today. Because we operate within the confines of the universal laws, we cannot continue to squander resources as we have in the past. Consider the following question: How much damage is caused to the natural environment in order to make a profit from the sale of a consumable item? Consider that many of the consumables produced are dispensable and often of minimal value. Realize that valuable resources must be used for their production. Moreover, these products ultimately become waste that must be disposed of, often in a manner that harms the environment. Why allow the continuation of activities that damage our common life support system? We already know that much of this damage cannot be repaired without a human population decrease. Why allow an increase in our population, recognizing that the consequence will be immense human suffering? Why allow resource consumption, pollution and global warming when we know that their continuance will prevent us from solving global problems and meeting the immense challenges that lie before us? We behave as though we have no regard for future generations. Why damage paradise beyond repair with 6.5 billion humans and the addition of about 75 million more annually? If we cannot solve our present problems, how can we ever hope to solve future more serious problems with an even greater population? The answer is obvious: we will never solve these problems if we increase our population, especially if we in parallel, increase resource consumption. In fact, we need to consciously decrease our population using the very means that allow maximization of women's freedom and provide the opportunity for universal quality of life. Excess resource consumption is not one of the requirements for quality life. It is now painfully obvious that our planetary life support system cannot sustain our overshoot population. The increasing consumption of non-renewable resources is causing global climate change, oceanic acidification and loss of biodiversity. All spell disaster, and consequently, each one of these problems is of immense importance to us all. Increased demands for the essentials: water and food, basic health care and education, already require increased resource consumption. Manufacture of unnecessary products merely exacerbates the problem. Traditional short-term solutions will only magnify the damage. Biosphere destruction resulting from violence and wars, economic waste and unwarranted habitat destruction cannot be tolerated. We must turn to internationally recognized judiciary institutions for judgment in order to settle disputes. National interests based on greed must be counteracted, and the best interests of all must be considered. International birth control and abortion services must be provided universally so women everywhere can be empowered to freely choose and plan their families. Without these services, women will never experience personal freedom. Without these services, the human population will never decline without 2 tremendous suffering. Who is to fund the provision of fertility reducing measures? The wealthy nations must finance these services, not only for the poor in their own countries but also for the poor in developing nations. Surprisingly, the cost is minimal, easily within our means. We need only act responsibly if we are to effect the changes that can swerve us from our present collision course. We need to stop squandering resources on illogical, ego-motivated destruction. Given the ignorance and irrationality of major segments of the world population, we may never solve our problems. However, one thing we can be sure of is that more people will only make matters worse. Unregulated Darwinian selection means immense human suffering. The laws of biology apply to humans as to all other biological species. Our common biosphere is our island in the universe, all we have. Our activities today determine how much suffering will be inflicted on future generations. Paradise lost may seem to be an inevitability, but it is not an acceptable outcome. Our world must be retained for our children's sakes. 3 Climate Change: New Trends and Projections Climate change – Trends long range; Exponential rise – Changing skies; Boding projections – Human connections. The two most dangerous problems facing humankind are (1) the excessive and expanding human population, and (2) anthropogenic greenhouse gas production. Of course the latter problem results from the former one, not the other way around, so a reduction in the number of humans on Earth will be required to solve any of our serious environmental problems. Hopefully, this will result from a decrease in the fertility rate rather than an increase in the death rate. But how serious is the problem of global warming, and what are the most recent trends and developments? Production of CO2 and other types of man-generated pollution has been increasing dramatically in recent years. At the International Conference on Global Environmental Change in Beijing, November 2006, scientists reported that despite efforts to reduce carbon emissions, they have actually increased. Specifically, the report documented that in the period between 2000 and 2005 as compared with the period between 1990 and 1995, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption increased by 400 PERCENT! The data were published by the Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org), a component of the Earth System Science Partnership. Dr Mike Raupach, Chair of the Global Carbon Project, noted that “The findings indicate that recent efforts to reduce emissions have had virtually no impact on emissions growth, and that effective caps are urgently needed.” Anthropogenic carbon dioxide release over the last five years are close to one of the more pessimistic emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called “A1B”. This scenario assumes that at least 50% of energy produced over the next century will come from fossil fuel consumption. The recent increases were attributed to the tremendous enhancement in fossil fuel consumption in China and India as well as the actions of the U.S. and Australia in disregarding and even undermining the efforts of the Kyoto Accord. Worse, assuming “business as usual,” the data suggest that at least an 8-fold increase in CO2 emissions will occur over the next 10 years. None of the recent projections had anticipated such a rapid rise in anthropogenic CO2 production. Meanwhile, G.W. Bush appointees to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are in court, defending their right to do nothing about global warming. Most frighteningly, due to the phenomenon of environmental inertia, if and when anthropogenic emissions do begin to decrease, atmospheric CO2 will continue to rise for at least a century. Moreover, global temperatures will continue to increase for two or more centuries, locking the world into continuing climate change. Effective management of Earth system inertia depends on early and consistent actions. Another startling study was published by the UN food and farming agency and the Rome- based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on November 29, 2006. This study concluded that the livestock industry contributes to the greenhouse effect, as measured in CO2 equivalents, as much or more than do cars. Meat production is also a major source of soil and water 4 pollution. Livestock now accounts for 18% of man-made carbon emissions, driven by the surge in demand for meat and dairy products by the world’s burgeoning populations. Global meat production is expected to more than double, from 230 million tons in 2001 to over 460 million tons in 2050. Similarly, U.N. projections indicate that milk output will soar from 550 million to about 1,100 million tons over the same period. Surprisingly, livestock manure decomposition generates 65% of human-caused nitrous oxide, a gas that is 300 times more effective at trapping solar heat than carbon dioxide, and livestock ruminants account for 37% of all human-induced methane. Per molecule, methane is 24 times more warming than CO2. To make matters even worse, 64% of man-made ammonia, a big contributor to acid rain, results from meat production. For many reasons, therefore, livestock demands including the need for feed crops, contribute very significantly to biodiversity loss. This information should provide us all with incentive to eat less meat and switch to more vegetarian diets. We owe it to our children, the Earth and ourselves. In a third study, published in the renowned journal, Science in November 2006, the state of the Earth’s oceans was evaluated. It was concluded that if global warming, pollution and fishing around the world continue unabated, marine ecosystems will unravel, and there will be a “global collapse” of all marine species. This will occur sometime before 2050. In order to avert this disaster, it was concluded that we must act immediately to protect marine ecosystem diversity. The marine life studied included all fish, shellfish and invertebrates that are consumed by people. The new analyses revealed that one-third of these species had their numbers reduced to less than 10% of values that existed just 50 years ago. Pollution, ocean acidity and warming, and habitat loss in addition to fishing were the primary causes.