To be presented at London School of Economics, Centre for the Analysis of Risk and Regulation: Workshop on Organisational Encounters with Risk, May 3-4, 2002. Mathematizing Risk: Markets, Arbitrage and Crises Donald MacKenzie April, 2002 Author’s address: School of Social and Political Studies University of Edinburgh Adam Ferguson Building Edinburgh EH8 9LL Scotland
[email protected] Two moments in the financial history of high modernity: Monday, August 17, 1998. The government of Russia declares a moratorium on interest payments on most of its ruble denominated bonds, announces that it will not intervene in the markets to protect the exchange rate of the ruble, and instructs Russian banks not to honour forward contracts on foreign exchange for a month. Elements of the decision are a surprise: countries in distress usually do not default on domestic bonds, since these can be honoured simply by printing more money. That Russia was in economic difficulties, however, was well known. Half of its government income was being devoted to interest payments, and investors – some fearing a default – had already pushed the yield on GKOs, short-term ruble bonds, to 70% by the beginning of August. Nor is the news on August 17 entirely bad: Russia manages to avoid a default on its hard currency bonds. And Russia, for all its size and nuclear arsenal, is not an important part of the global financial system. “I do not view Russia as a major issue,” says Robert Strong of Chase Manhattan Bank. Wall Street is unperturbed. On August 17, the Dow rises almost 150 points.1 Tuesday, September 11, 2001.