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A Discrete Choice and Configurational Analysis of Burglary Offence Location Choices A discrete choice and configurational analysis of burglary offence location choices Michael James Frith University College London Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Declaration I, Michael James Frith, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to explore the applications of configurational methods from the fields of graph theory and space syntax and discrete choice methods from economics to the analysis of crime. In the work that follows, this thesis will argue that, based on current environmental criminology theory, the movement of offenders and ordinary citizens play a vital but under-researched role in the distributions of crime. For offenders, it shapes their awareness and familiarity of the opportunities for crime. For ordinary citizens, it determines the supply of potential bystanders and the quality of ambient guardianship. This thesis will contend that the current methods for empirically describing or estimating both types of movement and the approaches typically used for analysing (their role in) crime patterns are not without significant shortcomings. As such, a series of novel graph theory network measures and a sample of discrete choice methods (the conditional logit, mixed logit and latent class logit models) are explored in relation to these issues. These methods are then jointly employed and empirically tested and compared in a set of original analyses of the burglary location choices in Buckinghamshire (UK). 3 Impact statement In analysing the novel ways configurational and choice methods can be used and combined to analyse offence location choices, the work contained in this thesis contributes to criminological literature. Particularly, in terms of creating novel movement measures for examining long-standing assumptions (e.g. regarding the effects of familiarity of offence location choices) and debates (e.g. regarding the role of passers-by in crime patterns) within the literature. The value and impact of this work criminology is evidenced by the publication of the paper, “role of the street network in burglars’ spatial decision-making”, in the leading criminology journal: Criminology (Frith, Johnson and Fry, 2017). Outside of research, undertaking this work has brought about several opportunities to lecture to postgraduate students. In particular, in one module where part of the focus of a computer workshop is on the types of analyses conducted and presented in this thesis. Other aspects of this work have also been presented in other modules. Outside of academia, the work undertaken as part of this thesis has also contributed to the government and general public in Buckinghamshire as the work was also presented to and discussed with the County Council. Some of the analyses presented in this thesis, and other analyses conducted on behalf of Buckinghamshire County Council were also incorporated in their Joint Strategic Assessment created in 2014. Going forward, the contacts forged through this work also means the (potential) practical impact of this thesis is likely to grow. Acknowledgements I would like to thank my two supervisors, Professor Shane Johnson and Dr Hannah Fry, for all of their unlimited guidance and support. I am also extremely grateful for the practical support and assistance from Buckinghamshire County Council, in particular Cath Marriott, Thames Valley Police, and the financial support from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under grant no. EP/G037264/1. Last, and certainly not least, I would like to thank all of my family and friends who have supported me throughout this research (and before!). Thank you! . Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................... 18 1.1. Background ................................................................................................. 18 1.2. Outline of the thesis .................................................................................. 19 1.3. Structure of the thesis ................................................................................ 20 1.4. Associated publications ............................................................................. 24 Chapter 2 Criminological Literature Review .............................................. 25 2.1. Introduction ................................................................................................ 25 2.2. Environmental criminology ...................................................................... 28 2.2.1. Rational choice perspective ................................................................. 28 2.2.2. Routine activities perspective .............................................................. 30 2.2.3. Crime pattern (geometric) perspective .............................................. 34 2.2.4. Social disorganisation and collective efficacy perspectives ............. 37 2.2.5. Eyes on the street perspective ............................................................ 40 2.2.6. Defensible space perspective .............................................................. 40 2.3. Theoretical model of burglary .................................................................. 42 2.3.1. Offenders and the road network ........................................................ 42 2.3.2. Passer-by movement ............................................................................ 44 2.3.3. Other factors ......................................................................................... 45 Configurational Methods Chapter 3 Introduction to configurational methods .................................. 48 3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................ 48 3.2. Perception methods ................................................................................... 49 3.3. Land use methods ...................................................................................... 50 3.4. Road type methods .................................................................................... 53 3.5. Configurational methods .......................................................................... 55 3.5.1. Representations ..................................................................................... 56 3.5.2. Measures ................................................................................................ 61 3.5.3. Impedances ............................................................................................ 64 Appendix A. 22 reviewed land use movement modelling studies .............................. 71 Appendix B. 78 reviewed analyses of movement and configurational methods ..... 79 Chapter 4 Meta-analysis of movement flow estimations using configurational methods ............................................................ 81 4.1. Introduction ................................................................................................ 82 4.2. Methodology .............................................................................................. 84 4.2.1. Configurational analyses ...................................................................... 84 4.2.2. Observation data ................................................................................... 86 4.2.3. Correlation methodology ..................................................................... 88 4.2.4. Meta-analysis methodology ................................................................. 91 4.3. Results .......................................................................................................... 95 4.3.1. Pedestrian results .................................................................................. 95 4.3.2. Vehicular results .................................................................................... 99 4.4. Discussion ................................................................................................. 103 Appendix A. List of computed configurational analyses ........................................... 109 Chapter 5 New configurational measures of movement ........................... 111 5.1. Introduction .............................................................................................. 111 5.2. Modelling non-uniform distributions of trip generators .................... 112 5.2.1. Non-uniform distributions of trip generators ................................ 112 5.2.2. Vertex-weighted betweenness ........................................................... 113 5.2.3. Example calculation ........................................................................... 114 5.2.4. Guardians and guardianship .............................................................. 117 5.2.5. Local and non-local betweenness ..................................................... 117 5.2.6. Example calculation ........................................................................... 118 5.3. Modelling offender awareness spaces ................................................... 121 5.3.1. Offender awareness spaces ............................................................... 121 5.3.2. Idiosyncratic betweenness ................................................................. 122 5.3.3. Example calculation ........................................................................... 124 5.4. Discussion ................................................................................................
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