bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/113241; this version posted March 3, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

The Genetic History of Northern Europe

Alissa Mittnik1,2*, Chuan-Chao Wang1, Saskia Pfrengle2, Mantas Daubaras3, Gunita Zarina4, Fredrik Hallgren5, Raili Allmäe6, Valery Khartanovich7, Vyacheslav Moiseyev7, Anja Furtwängler2, Aida Andrades Valtueña1, Michal Feldman1, Christos Economou8, Markku Oinonen9, Andrejs Vasks4, Mari Tõrv10, Oleg Balanovsky11,12, David Reich13,14,15, Rimantas Jankauskas16, Wolfgang Haak1,17, Stephan Schiffels1 and Johannes Krause1,2*

*corresponding author: [email protected], [email protected]

1Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena, Germany 2Institute for Archaeological Sciences, Archaeo- and Palaeogenetics, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany 3Department of Archaeology, Lithuanian Institute of History, Vilnius 4Institute of Latvian History, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia 5The Cultural Heritage Foundation, Västerås, Sweden 6|Archaeological Research Collection, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia 7Peter the Great Museum of Anthropology and Ethnography (Kunstkamera) RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia 8Archaeological Research Laboratory, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 9Finnish Museum of Natural History - LUOMUS, University of Helsinki, Finland 10Independent researcher 11Research Centre for Medical Genetics, Moscow, Russia 12Vavilov Institute for General Genetics, Moscow, Russia 13Department of Genetics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA 14Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA 15Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA 16Department of Anatomy, Histology and Anthropology, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania 17School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA-5005, South Australia, Australia

Recent ancient DNA studies have revealed that the genetic history of modern Europeans was shaped by a series of migration and admixture events between deeply diverged groups. While these events are well described in Central and Southern Europe, genetic evidence from Northern Europe surrounding the Baltic Sea is still sparse. Here we report genome-wide DNA data from 24 ancient North Europeans ranging from ~7,500 to 200 calBCE spanning the transition from a hunter-gatherer to an agricultural lifestyle, as well as the adoption of bronze metallurgy. We show that Scandinavia was settled after the retreat of the glacial ice sheets from a southern and a northern route, and that the first Scandinavian Neolithic farmers derive their ancestry from Anatolia 1000 years earlier than previously demonstrated. The range of Western European Mesolithic hunter-gatherers extended to the east of the Baltic Sea, where these populations persisted without gene-flow from Central European farmers until around 2,900 calBCE when the arrival of steppe pastoralists introduced a major

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shift in economy and established wide-reaching networks of contact within the Corded Ware Complex.

Recent genetic studies of ancient human genomes have revealed a complex population history of modern Europeans involving at least three major prehistoric migrations1-6 that were influenced by climatic conditions and availability of resources as well as the spread of technological and cultural innovations and possibly diseases7,8. However, how and when they affected the populations of the very north of the European continent surrounding today’s Baltic Sea, where the archeological record shows a distinct history to that of Central and Southern Europe, has yet to be comprehensively studied on a genomic level. The archeological record of the eastern Baltic and Scandinavia shows that settlement by mobile foragers started only after retreat of the glacial ice sheets around 11,000 years before present9. To the west and south, hunter-gatherers (Western Hunter- Gatherers or WHG) sharing a common genetic signature already occupied wide ranges of Europe from Iberia to Hungary for several millennia1,2,5,10,11. They were shown to be descended from foragers appearing in Europe after around 14,000 years ago in a population turnover coinciding with the warming period of the Bølling- Allerød interstadial, possibly emerging from a southern refugium they inhabited since the Glacial Maximum and replacing preceding foraging populations5,12. From further to the east in the territory of today’s Russia, remains of Mesolithic foragers (Eastern Hunter-gatherers or EHG) have been studied2,4. They derived the majority of their ancestry, referred to as Ancient North Eurasian ancestry (ANE), from a population related to the Upper Paleolithic Mal’ta boy found in Siberia (MA1)6,13. Late Mesolithic foragers excavated in central Sweden, called Scandinavian Hunter- Gatherers (SHG)1,2, were modeled as admixed between WHG and EHG6. Foraging groups along the eastern Baltic coast increasingly relied on marine resources during the 8th and 7th millennium calBCE and lived in more permanent settlements than their surrounding contemporaries14,15. The following Early Neolithic period, starting around 6,000 calibrated radiocarbon years before Common Era (calBCE), saw the transition from foraging to a sedentary agricultural lifestyle with the expansion of farmers out of Anatolia following the Danube and Mediterranean coast into Central and Southern Europe where they existed in parallel and admixed with local foragers for the following two millennia1,4,6,16,17. This development reached South Scandinavia at around 4,000 calBCE with the farmers of the Funnel Beaker Culture (TRB; from German Trichterbecher) who gradually introduced cultivation of cereals and cattle rearing. At the transition to the northern Middle Neolithic, around 3,300 calBCE, an intensification of agriculture is seen in Denmark and western Central Sweden accompanied by the erection of megaliths and changes in pottery and lithic technology, while settlements in eastern Central Sweden increasingly concentrated along the coast and economy shifted toward marine resources such as fish and seal. A gradual change in material culture can be seen in the archeological assemblages of these coastal hunter-gatherers, known as the Pitted Ware Culture (PWC) with early

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pottery resembling the Funnel beakers in shape. Analysis of ancient genomes from PWC and megalithic Middle Neolithic TRB context in Central Sweden has shown that PWC individuals retain the genetic signature of Mesolithic hunter-gatherers while the TRB farmers’ ancestry can mainly be traced back to Central European farmers, albeit with substantial admixture from European hunter-gatherers18-20 The production and use of pottery, in Central and southern Europe often seen as part of the ‘Neolithic package’, was already common among foragers in Scandinavia during the preceding Mesolithic Ertebølle phase. Similarly in the eastern Baltic, where foraging continued to be the main form of subsistence until at least 4,000 calBCE15, ceramics technology was adopted before agriculture. Recent genome wide data of hunter-gatherers from the Baltic Narva Culture revealed genetic continuity with the preceding Mesolithic inhabitants of the same region as well as influence from the more northern EHG21. The Late Neolithic is seen as a major transformative period in European prehistory, accompanied by changes in burial customs, technology and mode of subsistence as well as the creation of new cross-continental networks of contact seen in the emergence of the pan-European Corded Ware Complex (CWC, ca. 2,900 to 2,300 calBCE) in Central2 and northeastern Europe21. Studies of ancient genomes have shown that CWC were genetically closely related to the pastoralist Yamnaya Culture from the Pontic-Caspian steppe, bringing with them a genetic component that was not present in Europe previously2,3. Genomes from the CWC of Central Germany suggest that this new genetic component replaced around 75% of the local Middle Neolithic genetic substrate2. Presumably this ‘steppe’ genetic component spread in the subsequent millennia of the Final Neolithic and Bronze Age throughout Europe and can be seen in today’s European populations in a decreasing northeast to southwest gradient. Intriguingly, modern eastern Baltics carry the most WHG ancestry of all Europeans1, supporting the theory of a remnant Mesolithic hunter-gatherer population in this region that left a lasting genetic impact on subsequent populations22. Here we genetically investigate these dynamics of population turnover and continuity at the northern fringe of prehistoric European occupation. In the most comprehensive ancient DNA study in Northern Europe to date, we present novel genome-wide data from 24 ancient individuals spanning 7,000 years of prehistory from the Baltics, Russia and Sweden. We show that the settlement of Scandinavia by hunter-gatherers likely took place via two different routes, and that the first introduction of farming was brought about by migration of Central European farmers around 4,000 calBCE. In the eastern Baltics, foraging remained the dominant economy, corresponding with a genetic continuity of the population up until around 3,000 calBCE, when we see the first major shift towards agro-pastoralism brought on by migrations from the Pontic steppe as opposed to Central Europe.

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Results and Discussion

Samples and archaeological background The skeletal remains studied here were recovered from 25 archaeological sites in the territory of modern Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Karelia (Russia) and Sweden dating from around 7,500 to 200 calBCE (Fig.1, Supplementary Information Section1, Supplementary Data Table 1). In total, we analysed DNA from 105 human remains. Twenty-four samples that exhibited good DNA preservation were selected for deeper shotgun sequencing or SNP capture (Extended Data Table 1). In the latter case, we enriched samples for a panel of around 1.24 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) via in-solution capture4,23 to an average coverage of 0.04 to 8.8-fold on targeted SNPs and co-analysed with previously published data from over 300 ancient and around 3800 modern individuals6. The 24 final samples fall into seven broad groups: First, two Mesolithic hunter- gatherers from northwestern Russia (ca. 7,500 to 5,500 calBCE), adding to the EHG genomes from this context that are already available4; secondly, a Mesolithic hunter- gatherer from Lithuania (6440–6230 calBCE) associated with the Kunda Culture, whose archeological assemblages found in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and adjacent parts of Russia. Four individuals (ca. 4,700 to 4,200 calBCE) were assigned to the Narva Culture of eastern Baltic ceramist hunter-gatherers. Five individuals from Lithuania and Estonia were dated to the Late Neolithic (ca. 3200–1750 calBCE) and grouped together with the already published Estonian genome3 as Baltic Late Neolithic (LN). Nine samples from Latvia and Lithuania were attributed to the Baltic Bronze Age (Baltic BA) and date to ca. 1000–200 calBCE. From southern Sweden we analyse two farmers (ca. 3900–3400 calBCE) from the Early Neolithic TRB Culture (EN TRB), the earliest agricultural population in Scandinavia. As previously genetically analysed TRB individuals date to a period one millennium after the Neolithisation in Southern Scandinavia, these samples address the open question whether the first introduction of farming around 4,000 BCE was driven by newcomers or by local groups involving later gene-flow from Central European farmers. One sample from northern Sweden (Olsund, ca. 2570–2140 calBCE) dates to the Late Neolithic but was found without associated archeological assemblages.

Affinities of northern Mesolithic hunter-gatherers To gain an overview of the broad genetic affinities of our samples, we projected all 24 ancient genome-wide datasets onto principal components, constructed from 1007 modern individuals from a diverse set of West Eurasian contemporary populations. We also projected previously published ancient samples4 onto this plot and investigated the relationship of ancient Baltics to other ancient populations in Europe. The two samples from Karelia cluster with previously published Mesolithic EHG (Fig. 2A), exhibit similar composition of their genetic makeup (Fig. 2b) and share most genetic drift since divergence from Africa with EHG as shown by outgroup f3- statistics (Extended Data Figures 1 and 2). We therefore grouped them together with EHG for all following analyses. Model-based clustering using ADMIXTURE also

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shows that EHG carry a genetic component (green component in Fig. 2b) that is maximized in hunter-gatherers from the Caucasus (CHG) and shared with Neolithic farmers from Iran and Steppe populations from the Bronze Age, suggesting some common ancestry for these populations, consistent with previous results21. Despite its geographically vicinity to EHG, the eastern Baltic individual associated with the Mesolithic Kunda culture shows a very close affinity to WHG in all our analyses, with a small but significant contribution from EHG or SHG, as revealed by significant D-statistics of the form D(Kunda, WHG; EHG/SHG, Mbuti) (Z>3; Supplementary Information Table S2). SHG appear intermediate between WHG/Kunda and EHG in PCA space, and the statistic D(SHG,WHG; EHG, Mbuti) is strongly significant for excess allele sharing of SHG and EHG (Z=12.8). Neither the Kunda individual nor SHG exhibit the major ADMIXTURE component shared between EHG and CHG (green in Figure 2b), bringing into question a direct contribution of EHG into the Mesolithic individuals from Scandinavia and the eastern Baltic. However, using qpWave we cannot reject the previously published result of SHG being formed by admixture of WHG and EHG 6 (58±2% WHG with 42±2% EHG; p=0.55; Supplementary Information Table S7). Both EHG and SHG share a non-negligible component in ADMIXTURE analysis that is maximized in some modern Native American populations which points towards ancient North Eurasian ancestry, as represented by the MA1 and AG3 samples from Palaeolithic Siberia13 (crimson component in Fig. 2a). Indeed, D-statistics show that EHG and SHG share significantly more alleles with MA1 and AG3 than both Baltic and Western HG (Supplementary Information Table S9). Additionally, mtDNA haplogroups found among EHG point toward an eastern influence: R1b in UzOO77 was previously found in the Palaeolithic Siberian AG35 and a haplogroup related to branches within the C1 clade, which appears today in highest frequencies in northeast Asia and the Americas, was described in several samples from Yuzhnyy Oleni Ostrov24,25. Furthermore, in SHG the derived variant of the EDAR allele was discovered, which is found today in high frequency in East Asians and Native Americans4. In contrast to EHG and SHG, Kunda can be modelled as directly derived from WHG (p=0.18) (Supplementary Information Table S6). The almost complete absence of the additional ancestry shared by SHG and EHG to the south of the Baltic Sea suggests that it was brought into Scandinavia via a northern route through Finland and admixed in Scandinavia with a WHG-like population that derived from a migration northward over the land-bridge that connected Denmark and southern Sweden at the time, a scenario that is in concordance with the archeological record26.

An eastern Baltic refugium of European hunter-gatherers The results for the Kunda individual are mirrored in the four later eastern Baltic Neolithic hunter-gatherers of the Narva culture (Fig. 2) and further supported by the lack of significantly positive results for the D-statistic D(Narva, Kunda; X, Mbuti) (Supplementary Information Table S2) demonstrating population continuity at the transition from Mesolithic to Neolithic, which in the eastern Baltic region is signified

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by a change in networks of contacts and the use of pottery rather than a stark shift in economy as seen in Central and Southern Europe15. That Narva individuals derive directly from Kunda without additional admixture cannot be rejected (p=0.12), however it can also be accounted for by admixture of Kunda with either EHG, SHG or WHG (Supplementary Information Table S4). Specifically we see a greater proportion of possible admixture into the two samples excavated at the more eastern site Kretuonas (13±3% EHG or 33±7% SHG) than into the two Narva individuals from the more western sites (3±3% EHG or 7±6% SHG) (Supplementary Information Table S5). This substructure within the eastern Baltic foragers might have been present already in the Mesolithic, and evades our detection as we only have one sample from this time period. Similar to the other Mesolithic hunter-gatherers, all our Baltic foragers carry the derived HERC2 allele which codes for light iris color, and like SHG and EHG they already possess an increased frequency of the derived alleles for SLC45A2 and SLC24A5, coding for lighter skin color (Extended Data Table 2). The two male Narva individuals carry Y-chromosomal haplogroups of the I2a1 clade (Supplementary Information Section 3, Extended Data Table 1) and Y-haplogroup I has been most commonly found among WHG and SHG1,5. The Narva individual Spiginas1 (dated to ca. 4440–4240 cal BCE) belongs to a mitochondrial haplogroup of the H branch providing the first direct evidence that this branch was present among European foragers without gene-flow from farmers (Extended Data Table 1). Notably, in addition to haplogroup H, the maternal lineages seen in eastern Baltic samples (n=31; Extended Data Figure 5) encompass all of the major haplogroups identified in complete mtDNA genomes from Holocene Scandinavian and western European hunter-gatherers (n=21:U2, U5a, U5b)12, as well as haplogroup U4 which has been found in high frequency in Mesolithic foragers from Russia24 and K1, a derivate of the U8 branch found in Scandinavian foragers20, suggesting a large census size of Baltic hunter-gatherers to maintain such genetic diversity. We see in Baltic foragers no genomic evidence of gene-flow from Central European farmers or any Y-chromosomal or mitochondrial haplogroups that are typical for them, suggesting that any traces of agriculture and animal husbandry in the Baltic Early and Middle Neolithic were due to local development or cultural diffusion15.

Early Neolithic farmer migration into Scandinavia In contrast to the Eastern Baltic, we see clear evidence of a movement of agriculturalists into Southern Sweden already around 4,000 calBCE. The individuals associated with the Early Neolithic TRB culture (EN TRB) cluster with Middle and Early Neolithic farmers from Europe on the PCA (Fig. 2A) and in the ADMIXTURE analysis exhibit the component maximized in Levantine early farmers (orange component in Figure 2b). The statistic D(EN_TRB, Middle Neolithic Central Europe; X, Mbuti) does not yield significantly positive results and EN TRB can be modeled as derived from a single source identical with Middle Neolithic (MN) Central Europe (p=0.26; Supplementary Information Table S6). Models involving a linear

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combination of MN Central Europe and different groups of northern European hunter- gatherers are not rejected, but the admixture proportions estimated for the latter do not significantly deviate from zero (e.g. 4±6% for SHG at p=0.26; Supplementary Information Table S7). Previous studies2,27 have shown a resurgence of WHG ancestry during the European Middle Neolithic coinciding with the expansion of farming to regions previously inhabited by hunter-gatherers. We demonstrate here that early Swedish farmers, similarly, derive from a mix between Early Farmers and WHG, without additional gene-flow from foraging groups represented by SHG from Central Sweden. However, as no forager samples from South Sweden, Denmark or Northern Germany have been studied as of yet we cannot say if the genetic substrate was more WHG-like in these regions and if local admixture might have played a greater role in the TRB culture. Nevertheless, our results suggest that the first introduction of agriculture into South Sweden was mainly facilitated by demic diffusion from Central Europe. The previously published succeeding farmers of the Middle Neolithic (MN) TRB culture in West Sweden19 appear as directly descended from the EN TRB, with no significant positive results for D(MN_TRB, EN_TRB; X, Mbuti) and qpWave analysis using only EN TRB as source for MN TRB are not rejected (p=0.86). The PWC individuals, who were contemporaneous to the MN TRB but relied mainly on marine resources, appear intermediate between SHG and Middle Neolithic farming cultures on the PCA (Fig. 2A) and the only models not rejected with qpWave involve a two-way admixture between SHG and EN TRB (91±3% SHG and 9±4% EN TRB Supplementary Information Table S7). By this model, PWC is largely genetically continuous to SHG, which is congruent with their similarities in economy but somewhat at odds with archaeological models indicating continuity between EN TRB and the later PWC28. We suggest that the continuity between EN TRB and the later PWC seen in archeological assemblages could be due to contact between foraging and farming groups with gene-flow from the latter into the former. Admixture in the other direction from Scandinavian foraging groups into early farmers cannot be excluded in our analyses but is not significantly different from zero (Supplementary Information Table S7).

New networks of contact during the Late Neolithic and Bronze Age The substantial population movement at the beginning of the third millennium calBCE, during the European Late Neolithic and Early Bronze Age (LNBA), which affected the genetic makeup of Eastern and Central Europe and Scandinavia2,3, made its mark in the eastern Baltic region as well, as seen in our five samples from Lithuania and Estonia dated to this period and the previously published individual from Sope, Estonia3. All Baltic Late Neolithic (LN) individuals (ca. 3,200 to 1,750 calBCE) fall in PCA space in the diffuse European LNBA cluster formed by individuals admixed between Early and Middle Bronze Age (EMBA) pastoralists from the Yamnaya culture of the eastern Pontic Steppe and Middle Neolithic European farmers (Fig. 2A) and carry the genetic component that was introduced into Europe with this pastoralist migration (green in Fig. 2B). This impact is also reflected

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in the uniparental markers where we see novel mitochondrial haplogroups (I, J, T2, W), not found in the preceding foragers, in half of our samples (Extended Data Figure 5), and I2a Y-chomosomal haplogroups replaced by R1a types (Supplementary Information Section 3, Extended Data Table 1). qpWave estimates that the Baltic LN samples, when analysed as a population, are consistent with being derived from the same source as Central European CWC samples (p=0.12; Supplementary Information Table S4) and no significant positive hits appear for the statistic D(Baltic_LN, CordedWare_Central; X, Mbuti). Analysed individually, however, this model is rejected for three LN samples: Gyvakarai1 and Plinkaigalis242, which is dated to the very beginning of the LN, are instead consistent with being derived from the same source as EMBA Steppe pastoralists (p=0.41 and p=0.19, respectively; Supplementary Information Table S4), which corresponds with their ADMIXTURE profiles that lack the early farmer component also missing in EMBA Steppe samples (orange component in Fig. 2b). Coinciding with this steppe- like genetic influx is the first evidence of animal husbandry in the eastern Baltic15, suggesting import of this technology by an incoming steppe-like pastoralist population independent of the agricultural societies that were already established to the south and west. Furthermore, the individual Spiginas2, which is dated to the very end of the Late Neolithic, has a higher proportion of the hunter-gatherer ancestry, as seen in ADMIXTURE (darker blue component in Fig. 2b), and is estimated to be admixed between 78±4% Central European CWC and 22±4% Narva (Supplementary Information Table S6). A reliance on marine resources persisted especially in the north-eastern Baltic region until the end of the Late Neolithic29 and in combination with the proposed large population size for Baltic hunter-gatherers a ‘resurgence’ of hunter-gatherer ancestry in the local population through admixture between foraging and farming groups is likely, and has been described for the European Middle Neolithic2,30. We observe that the increased affinity to Baltic hunter-gatherers continues in the more recent samples from the Baltic BA (dated between ca. 1,000 and 230 calBCE), that cluster together on the PCA in the same space occupied by modern Lithuanians and Estonians, shifted from other Europeans to WHG and Baltic hunter-gatherers (Fig. 2A). The statistic D(Baltic_BA, Baltic_LN; Narva, Mbuti) is strongly significant (Z=11.7; Supplementary Information Table S2) demonstrating the increase in allele sharing with local hunter-gatherers in the Baltic populations after the Late Neolithic. Additionally, D-statistics provided significantly positive results for D(Baltic_BA, Baltic_LN; X, Mbuti) when X was replaced by various agricultural populations of Europe and the Near East (Supplementary Information Table S2) which suggests that the formation of the Baltic BA gene pool was not completed by admixture between the Baltic CWC population and foragers but involved additional gene-flow from outside the Baltic territory. Direct evidence of this exists in the Baltic BA sample that appears as an outlier on the PCA, falling within the larger European LNBA cluster instead of the tight Baltic BA cluster (Fig. 2a) and archaeological evidence supports that the site Kivutkalns, which is represented by eight of our individuals, was a large

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bronze-working center located on a trade route that opened to the Baltic Sea on the west and led inland following the Daugava river31. The Baltic BA was furthermore the first eastern Baltic population to show an increased frequency of the derived LCT allele, which is responsible for lactase persistence, i.e. the ability to digest unprocessed dairy (Extended Data Table 2). This rise in frequency could be due to either gene-flow carrying the allele into the region or a strong positive selection for this phenotype4. The individual from Olsund in north-eastern Sweden was dated to the Late Neolithic (ca. 2,600 to 2,100 calBCE) when agriculture had been introduced to the coastal areas of Northern Sweden with the Battle Axe Culture, the regional variant of the CWC, while foraging persisted as an important form of subsistence. The remains were found without any associated artifacts, but in close proximity to a site where the assemblage showed a mix between local hunter-gatherer traditions and CWC influence32. On the PCA this sample falls within the European LNBA cluster (Fig. 2A) and similarly to other individuals from this cluster displays the three components derived from WHG, CHG and Neolithic Levant (Fig. 2b) providing genomic evidence for the influence of both the early Neolithic and LNBA expansions having reached as far as northern Sweden in the third millennium. qpWave rejects both Scandinavia LNBA and Baltic LN as single sources for Olsund and all tested models of two-way admixture between Baltic LN or Scandinavia LNBA and other contemporaneous groups (Supplementary Information Table S5). However, in all tests Baltic LN consistently provides higher p-values over Scandinavia LNBA suggesting the former population in more closely related to the potential source of the Olsund individual. This could indicate that the route of CWC expansion into Northern Sweden might have not been northward from Southern Scandinavia but instead westward across the Baltic Sea either by boat or over the frozen sea during winter33. Assemblages similar to the early CWC of Sweden have been found in south-western Finland, across the Bothnian Sea34,35 which could be considered a geographically closer source than Southern Scandinavia.

Gene-flow into the eastern Baltic after the Bronze Age Despite the close clustering of modern eastern Baltic populations with Baltic BA on the PCA plot and Lithuanians and Estonians exhibiting the highest allele sharing for ancient Baltic populations with any modern population (Extended Data Figure 2), Baltic BA as a single source for either modern Lithuanians or Estonians is rejected (Supplementary Information Table S4). The statistic D(Lithuanian, Baltic_BA; X, Mbuti) reveals significant positive results for many modern Near Eastern and Southern European populations which can be caused by Lithuanians having received more genetic input from populations with higher farmer ancestry after the Bronze Age (Supplementary Information Table S8). As this applies to nearly all modern populations besides Estonians, especially for Central and Western Europe, limited gene-flow from more south-western neighbouring regions is sufficient to explain this pattern.

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In contrast, the statistic D(Estonian, BA_Baltic; X, Mbuti) gives the most significant positive hits for East Asian and Siberian populations (Supplementary Information Table S8) as previously suggested2. This might be connected to the introduction of the Y-chromosomal haplogroup N that in Europe is found in highest frequencies in Finland and the eastern Baltic states, and in similar high frequencies in the Uralic speaking populations of the Volga-Ural region36. The spread of N into north-eastern Europe was proposed to have happened with speakers of Uralic languages from the east who contributed to the male gene pool of eastern Baltic populations and left linguistic descendants in the Finno-Ugric languages Finnish and Estonian37,38. As we do not see Y-haplogroup N in any of the male samples from Lithuania and Latvia dated as late as 230 calBCE we propose that this element was brought into the gene pool of the more southern region of the Baltic coast after the Late Bronze Age.

Conclusion With our analyses we support the pattern seen in the archeological record of continuity between the Mesolithic and Early Neolithic hunter-gatherer populations in the territory of modern Lithuania who appear genetically similar to Western hunter- gatherers. In contrast, contemporaneous hunter-gatherers from the more northern Latvia and Estonia were closer to Eastern hunter-gatherers21,39. Networks of contact between the Baltic Sea and the river Volga could explain similarities seen in this region in pottery styles of hunter-gatherer groups although morphologically analogous ceramics could also have developed independently due to similar functionality40. The situation appears differently in Scandinavia where a transition from foraging to agriculture in the Early Neolithic is carried by a demic diffusion from the south. Both the eastern Baltic and Scandinavia saw persistence of foraging throughout the Middle and Late Neolithic in populations that genetically largely descended from hunter- gatherer ancestors, as the resources of the Baltic Sea region, exploited through fishing and hunting, provided a beneficial environment for these groups and made it possible for them to maintain large population sizes without relying on crop cultivation. We see a population movement into the regions surrounding the Baltic Sea with the Corded Ware Complex in the Late Neolithic that introduced animal husbandry to the eastern Baltic regions but did not completely replace local foraging societies. The presence of ancestry from the Pontic Steppe among Baltic CWC individuals without the Anatolian farming component must be due to a direct migration of steppe pastoralists that did not pick up this ancestry in Central Europe. This could lend support to a linguistic model that sees a branching of Balto-Slavic from a Proto-Indo- European homeland in the west Eurasian steppe41-43. As farming ancestry however is found in later eastern Baltic individuals it is likely that considerable individual mobility and a network of contact throughout the range of the CWC facilitated its spread eastward, possibly through exogamous marriage practices44. Conversely, the appearance of mitochondrial haplogroup U4 in the Central European Late Neolithic after millennia of absence27 could indicate female gene-flow from the eastern Baltic region, where this haplogroup was present at high frequency.

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Potential future directions of research are the identification of the proximate ancient populations that contributed ancestry into Scandinavian and Karelian hunter-gatherers and Native Americans, and the timing of the arrival of Y-haplogroup N and with it possibly some of the Finno-Ugric languages spoken today in the eastern Baltic region and Fennoscandia.

Online Methods Screening of samples DNA was extracted45 from a total of 80 ancient samples (teeth and bones) from the eastern Baltic region, ranging from the Mesolithic Kunda culture to the Late Bronze Age. From the Scandinavia (Sweden) we sampled 21 human remains from Mesolithic and early Funnel beaker (TRB) contexts. The samples and their archeological context are described in Supplementary Information Section 1 and presented in a tabular overview with sequencing results in Supplementary Data Table 1. Detailed screening methods are described in Supplementary Information Section 2.

Nuclear capture and sequencing Twenty-three samples (including two previously studied Karelian samples24) were chosen for nuclear capture, the enrichment of ~1.2 million SNPs informative about population ancestry. Additional uracil–DNA–glycosylase (UDG) treated libraries46 were prepared out of the DNA extracts of these samples. These libraries were then barcoded with sample specific index sequence combinations47, subsequently amplified with Herculase II Fusion (Agilent) and enriched for a targeted set of ~1.2 million nuclear SNPs (1240k SNP set)2,4,23. Enriched libraries from the eastern Baltic and Swedish samples were paired-end sequenced on a NextSeq500 at the department of Medical Genetics at the University of Tübingen using 2x150 bp reads and a HiSeq4000 at the IKMB in Kiel, Germany, using 2x150bp reads, the UDG-treated library of UzOO77 was processed at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History in Jena, Germany, and was sequenced there on a HiSeq4000 for 2x76 cycles, and the UDG-treated library for Popovo2 was processed at Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA, and sequenced here on a NextSeq500 for 2x75 cycles. Additionally, the non-UDG-treated screening library of Gyvakarai1 was paired-end sequenced on two lanes of a HiSeq4000 for 2x100 cycles, and on a full run of a NextSeq500 for 2x75 cycles. The screening library for Kunila2 was paired-end sequenced deeper on 80% of one lane of a HiSeq4000 for 2x100 cycles. Additionally, 40 µL of DNA extract of Kunila2 was converted into a UDG-treated library, and pair- end sequenced on one lane of a HiSeq4000 for 2x75 cycles. The three UDG-half libraries for Olsund were single-end sequenced on a HiSeq4000 for 77bp. Resulting sequence data was demultiplexed and then further processed using EAGER48. This included mapping with BWA (v0.6.1)49 against UCSC genome browser’s human genome reference GRCh37/hg19, and removing duplicate reads with same orientation and start and end positions. To avoid an excess of remaining C-

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to-T and G-to-A transitions at the ends of the reads, two bases of the ends of each read were clipped. For each of the targeted SNP positions, the genotype was called by choosing a read at random to represent this position using the in-house genotype caller pileupcaller.

Quality control One sample that was covered at less than 10,000 SNPs of the 1240k SNP set was excluded from further analyses (Turlojiske4). Contamination in male samples was estimated to be under 5% by testing for heterozygosity of the X chromosome, using the software ANGSD50(Supplementary Data 1). For the female samples and the male sample Popovo2 that had too few reads on the X chromosome to produce a contamination estimate with ANGSD, we restricted to reads showing post-mortem damage characteristically seen in ancient DNA with the software pmdtools51 and called genotypes from these datasets. We

devised a test f4(Test, Chimp; Sample_PMDfiltered, Sample_nonPMDfiltered) where Test was iterated through the modern populations Mbuti, Yoruba, Kalash, French, Karitiana, Papuan and Atayal to see if any of the samples shared more alleles with a modern population in the non-filtered data compared to the filtered, putatively authentic data, indicating contamination related to the modern population. None of the unfiltered samples showed a significant (|Z|>3) affinity to any of the modern populations. Analyses on Saxtorp5158 were still restricted to only reads showing post-mortem damage as this sample had an elevated contamination rate on the mtDNA. Furthermore, the software lcmlkin52 estimated a coefficient of relatedness of around 0.5 between this sample and Saxtorp5164, consistent with first-degree relatives, and Saxtorp5158 was therefore excluded from population genetic analyses other than PCA to avoid bias resulting from a defined population consisting of closely related individuals.

Sex assignment Genetic sex was assigned by calculating the ratio of X chromosomal and Y chromosomal coverage to autosomal coverage at the targeted SNPs (X and Y rate, respectively) as described previously5. Samples with an X rate between 0.7-1 and Y rate between 0-0.1 were assigned female and those with an X rate between 0.3-0.55 and Y rate between 0.4-0.7 were assigned male demonstrating the informative value of the Y rate over the X rate using this method (Supplementary Information Figure S1).

Population genetic analyses Reference datasets for ancient populations are taken from the publicly available dataset used in Lazaridis et al. 20166 (which includes genotypes from samples published earlier in Skoglund et al. 201419, Haak et al. 20152, Allentoft et al 20153, Mathieson et al. 20154 and Jones et al. 201553, among others) and Fu et al. 20165, as well as genotyping data from worldwide modern populations (Human Origins or HO

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dataset) published in the same publications and provided by the David Reich lab6. When analyzing only ancient samples we make use of the 1,196,358 SNPs targeted by the 1240k SNP capture, using the genotypes of deep shotgun sequenced modern Mbuti as the outgroup. For analyses involving modern populations we restrict to the intersection of 597,503 SNPs between the 1240k SNP set and the HO dataset. Principle component analysis (PCA) was performed with smartpca in the EIGENSOFT package54 by constructing the eigenvectors from modern west Eurasian populations (Supplementary Information Figure S2) and projecting ancient individuals on these eigenvectors (Figure 2a, Extended Data Figure 4). Admixture analysis (Figure 2b) was carried out with ADMIXTURE on 3769 modern and 366 ancient individuals for ancestral populations k=2 to k=20. The SNP dataset was pruned for linkage disequilibrium with PLINK using the parameters --indep- pairwise 200 25 0.5. We considered the cross-validation (CV) error and report in Figure 2b the results of k=11 where the CV error levels out at a minimum. To quantify population affinities and admixtures suggested in the PCA and ADMIXTURE analysis, we carried out f-statistics using the programs qp3Pop and

qpDstat in the ADMIXTOOLS suite (https://github.com/DReichLab) for f3- and f4- statistics, respectively. f3-statistics of the form f3(X,Y; Outgroup) measure the amount of shared genetic drift of population X and X after their divergence from an outgroup.

Admixture f3-statistics of the form f3(Test;X,Y) indicate when significantly negative that population Test is intermediate in allele frequencies between populations A and B and could be considered an admixed population. This test was performed with parameter inbreeding:YES and can not be done for populations with less than two

individuals. f4-statistics of the form f4(X,Y; Test, Outgroup) show if population Test is symmetrically related to X and Y or shares an excess of alleles with either of the two.

Results are only reported for statistics based on more than 10,000 SNPs. Key f4 analyses were repeated using only transversion sites to control for the effect of deamination (Supplementary Information Tables S10 and S11). To formally test for the number of source populations and the proportion of ancestry these contributed to our studied populations we used the qpWave and qpAdm

programs from ADMIXTOOLS. The methodology of using regression of f4-statistics of a Reference population with various outgroups to relate its ancestry to a Test population is described in detail in the Supplementary Information of Haak et al.2 and Lazaridis et al.6. With qpWave we identified potential source populations for our population under study by testing if a set of Left populations (the Test population under study and its potential proximate source Reference populations) is consistent with being descended from n waves of admixture which have unique relationships to the Right outgroup populations (we used as modern outgroups Mbuti, Naxi, Han, Onge, Papuan, Lahu, Ami, Dinka, She, Atayal, Yi, Miao, and as ancient outgroups Switzerland_HG, MA1, Ust_Ishim and Kostenki14). This is given when rank n-1 cannot be rejected (p>0.05), and rejected (i.e. more that n waves of admixture are needed to explain the ancestry of Test and Reference) if rank n-1 can be rejected (p<0.05).

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To estimate admixture proportions, we used qpAdm to model the Test population as a mixture of various source populations postulated from the qpWave test, setting as Left populations the Test and source populations and the various outgroups named above as the Right populations.

Acknowledgments We thank Isil Kucukkalipci, Guido Brandt, Nadin Rohland and Swapan Mallick for technical support in DNA analyses and Herve Bocherens, Vesa Palonen, Anne-Maija Forss and Igor Shevchuk for arranging sample treatment and technical support for radiocarbon analyses. We thank Henny Piezonka, Cosimo Posth and Iosif Lazaridis for helpful discussion and suggestions.

Author contributions A.M., R.J. and J.K. conceived the idea for the study. M.D., G.Z., F.H., R.A., V.M., V.K., O.B. and R.J. assembled skeletal material. A.M., S.P., A.F., A.A.V., M.F., C.E., M.O., D.R. and J.K. performed or supervised wet lab work. A.M., C.W. and S.P. analyzed data. A.M., C.W., M.D., G.Z., F.H., M.T., R.A., M.O., W.H., S.S. and J.K. wrote the manuscript and supplements.

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Yuzhnyy Oleni Ostrov!

Popovo! Olsund!

Kunila!

Kivutkalns!

Spiginas! Gyvakarai!

Saxtorp! Donkalnis! Kretuonas! Plinkaigalis! Turlojiske!

EHG! Kunda! Narva! Early Neolithic TRB! Baltic Late Neolithic! Olsund! Baltic Bronze Age!

8000! 7000! 6000! 5000! 4000! 3000! 2000! 1000! BCE0!!

Figure 1. Sampling locations and dating of ancient Northern European genomes introduced in this study. Chronology based on calibrated radiocarbon dates or contextual dating, see Supplementary Information Section 1.

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a! b! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Mesolithic! EHG! UzOO77! !

0.10 Popovo2! Caucasus/ Iran! Spiginas4! Kunda! ! SHG! ! WHG! !

0.05 Natufian! EHG! ! Levant N! ! !

0 Anatolia N! SHG! ! CHG! HotuIIIb! Levant! Iran N! WHG! 0.05 Spiginas1! − Anatolia! Donkalnis6! Narva! Kretuonas2! Kretuonas4! ! ! Kunda Switzerland HG Iran N PWC! EHG CHG Levant N ! SHG Hotu IIIb Anatolia N Saxtorp5164! EN TRB! 0.10 WHG Natufian ! − MN TRB! −Early/Middle0.10 − Neolithic0.05 ! 0 0.05 0.10

0.10 ! Europe EN! ! 0.05 Europe MNChL! ! modern eastern

! Baltic! Anatolia ChL! Iran ChL! 0

PC2 Armenia ChL! Steppe Eneolithic! ! Plinkaigalis242! Gyvakarai1! Plinkaigalis241! RISE00! Baltic LN! Kunila2! Spiginas2!

0.05 Turlojiske3! Kivutkalns19! − ! Kivutkalns42! Kivutkalns25! ! Kivutkalns215! Kivutkalns194! Baltic BA! Kivutkalns222! Kivutkalns209! Narva EN TRB Armenia ChL Kivutkalns207! PWC MN TRB Steppe Eneolithic RISE598.SG! ! Europe EN Iran ChL Olsund! Olsund!

0.10 Europe MNChL Anatolia ChL − ! −Late0.10 Neolithic−0.05 – Bronze Age0! 0.05 0.10 Scandinavia

0.10 LNBA! ! Scandinavia LBA! ! Central Europe CWC! 0.05 ! Europe LNBA! 0 ! Steppe Yamnaya! 0.05

− ! Steppe EMBA! Steppe Yamnaya Baltic LN Iberia BA Steppe EMBA Baltic BA Levant BA Steppe MLBA Scandinavia LNBA Armenia EBA ! Central Europe CWC Olsund Armenia MLBA Steppe MLBA!

0.10 Europe LNBA Scandinavia LBA ! − Iberia BA! −0.10 −0.05 0 0.05 0.10 Levant BA! Armenia EBA! PC 1! ! Armenia MLBA! ! Figure 2. PCA and ADMIXTURE analysis reflecting three time periods in Northern European prehistory. (a) Principal components analysis of 1007 present- day West Eurasians (grey points, modern Baltic populations in dark grey) with 282 projected published ancient and 24 ancient north European samples introduced in this study (marked with a red outline). Population labels of modern West Eurasians are given in Supplementary Information Fig. 2 and a zoomed-in version of the European Late Neolithic and Bronze Age samples is provided in Extended Data Fig. 4. (b) Ancestral components in ancient individuals estimated by ADMIXTURE (k=11).

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Extended Data Figure 1. Pairwise outgroup f3-statistics of late Western Eurasian hunter-gatherers. Eastern Baltic hunter-gatherers fall within the ‘Villabruna’ cluster (including WHG) of European hunter-gatherers dating after ca. 14,000 BP. PWC and SHG cluster together and share more genetic drift with ‘Villabruna’ hunter-gatherers that with EHG.

20 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/113241; this version posted March 3, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

EHG Kunda Narva 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.270.28 0.290.3 0.260.24 0.28 0.260.3 0.320.28 0.34 0.3 0.240.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.3 0.240.26 0.280.26 0.3 0.280.32 0.340.3 0.260.24 0.28 0.30.26 0.32 0.340.28 0.36 0.3 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda KundaKunda KundaKunda KundaKunda Kunda Kunda Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Kunda Kunda Kunda Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Narva Narva Narva Narva Villabruna_Chaudardes1Narva NarvaNarva Villabruna_Chaudardes1Narva Narva Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Switzerland_HG Narva Narva Narva Switzerland_HG Malta_AfontovaGora3 Switzerland_HG Malta_AfontovaGora3 Malta_AfontovaGora3 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1SHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1SHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1Villabruna_Villabruna SHG Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Villabruna SHG Villabruna_Villabruna SHG SHG WHG WHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 WHG Villabruna_RochedaneWHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1WHG Villabruna_RochedaneWHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Rochedane WHG WHG WHG WHG WHG Kunda WHG Kunda Kunda Baltic_BA Villabruna_Villabruna EHGBaltic_BA Villabruna_VillabrunaWHG Baltic_BAEHG Villabruna_VillabrunaWHG EHG WHG Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Narva Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Narva Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Narva Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Switzerland_HG SHG Baltic_BASwitzerland_HG Villabruna_Ranchot88SHG Switzerland_HGBaltic_BA Villabruna_Ranchot88SHG Baltic_BA Villabruna_Ranchot88 Switzerland_HG Switzerland_HG Switzerland_HG Villabruna_Ranchot88 Narva Villabruna_Ranchot88 Narva Villabruna_Ranchot88 Narva SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane SHG Villabruna_RochedaneSwitzerland_HG Villabruna_RochedaneSHG Villabruna_RochedaneSwitzerland_HG Villabruna_Rochedane Switzerland_HG SHG SHG SHG Villabruna_Rochedane AG2 Villabruna_Rochedane AG2 Villabruna_Rochedane AG2 Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_RochedaneWHG Villabruna_FalkensteinVillabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_RochedaneWHG Villabruna_FalkensteinVillabruna_Ranchot88 WHG Villabruna_Falkenstein Lithuanian Lithuanian Lithuanian Villabruna_Falkenstein PWC Villabruna_Falkenstein PWC Villabruna_Falkenstein PWC Villabruna_Villabruna Switzerland_HG Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraVillabruna_Villabruna Switzerland_HGSHG Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraVillabruna_Villabruna Switzerland_HGSHG Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane SHG MA1 SHG MA1 SHG MA1 Estonian Lithuanian Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraEstonian LithuanianPWC Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara PWC Estonian LithuanianVillabruna_Villabruna Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Villabruna_VillabrunaPWC WHG PWC WHG Villabruna_Villabruna PWC Sorb Europe_LNBA_HungaryWHG Steppe_EMBA_PoltavkaPWC ElMiron_ElMiron Sorb Europe_LNBA_Hungary Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Sorb Europe_LNBA_HungaryElMiron_ElMiron Sorb Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Sorb Sorb ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka ElMiron_ElMiron EHG Steppe_EMBA_AfanasievoBelarusian EHG Steppe_EMBA_AfanasievoBelarusian Sweden_HGEHG Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Sweden_HG Polish Belarusian Polish Sweden_HG Polish Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 EHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 PWC Villabruna_VillabrunaEHG Polish PWC Villabruna_VillabrunaEHG EHG Polish PWC Icelandic Villabruna_Villabruna Polish EHG Icelandic EHG Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Icelandic Baltic_BA Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraEstonian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralBaltic_BA Baltic_BA PWC Estonian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central PWC Baltic_BAEstonian Karelian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralPWC Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Villabruna_Villabruna Karelian Karelian Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_LNBA_Hungary Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_LNBA_Hungary Icelandic Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka OlsundIcelandic Europe_LNBA_HungarySteppe_EMBA_Potapovka Europe_LNBA_HungaryOlsundIcelandic Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaEurope_LNBA_Hungary Olsund Europe_LNBA_Hungary Finnish Finnish Finnish Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_Central Switzerland_HGUkrainian Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierSwitzerland_HGUkrainian Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraEurope_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierSwitzerland_HG Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Belarusian Ukrainian Belarusian Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Belarusian Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centr Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraSteppe_MLBA_SrubnayaRussian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centr Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraSteppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Lithuanian Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Russian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centr Norwegian Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaRussian Lithuanian Norwegian Lithuanian Switzerland_HG Switzerland_HG Norwegian Switzerland_HGOlsund LithuanianPWC Lithuanian Karelian Olsund PWCKarelian Europe_LNBA_VatyaOlsund Ukrainian LithuanianKarelianPWC Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_Vatya Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Ukrainian Ukrainian Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia MN_TRB Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Lithuanian Czech Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara MN_TRBLithuanian Czech Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierSteppe_Eneolithic_Samara MN_TRBLithuanian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Czech Czech Czech Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Czech Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Sorb Europe_LNBA_CentralNorwegian Sorb Europe_LNBA_VatyaEurope_LNBA_CentralNorwegian EstonianSorb Europe_LNBA_CentralEurope_LNBA_Vatya Estonian Europe_LNBA_Vatya Irish Norwegian Irish Estonian Irish Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_KalmykiaVillabruna_Ranchot88 Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_KalmykiaEurope_LNBA_CentralVillabruna_Ranchot88 Baltic_LNKarelian Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_KalmykiaEurope_LNBA_Central Karelian Europe_LNBA_Central Russian Villabruna_Ranchot88 Russian Karelian Russian Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Belarusian Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaGerman Belarusian Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaBaltic_LNGerman BelarusianSorb Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaBaltic_LN Sorb Baltic_LN PWC German PWC Sorb PWC Baltic_LN Baltic_LN Baltic_LN Polish Europe_LNBA_Hungary Irish Polish Europe_MNChL_IberiaEurope_LNBA_Hungary Irish Europe_LNBA_CentralPolish Europe_MNChL_IberiaEurope_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_MNChL_Iberia Villabruna_Ranchot88 Irish Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_LNBA_CentralVillabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_EMBA_SrubnayaScottish Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_EMBA_SrubnayaEstonianScottish Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaBaltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_SrubnayaEstonian Baltic_LN Estonian Veps Scottish Veps Baltic_LN Veps Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_UneticeShetlandic Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_UneticeShetlandic Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaUkrainian Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicEurope_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Shetlandic Shetlandic Shetlandic Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Shetlandic Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Steppe_MLBA_Potapovka Steppe_MLBA_Potapovka Steppe_MLBA_Potapovka Russian EstonianOrcadian Russian EstonianOrcadian Europe_MNChL_IberiaRussian EstonianSorb Europe_MNChL_Iberia Sorb German Orcadian German Europe_MNChL_Iberia German Sorb Steppe_EMBA_Russia_EBA Steppe_EMBA_Russia_EBA Steppe_EMBA_Russia_EBA Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierVillabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierVillabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierIcelandic Villabruna_Ranchot88Karelian Icelandic Karelian Scottish Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Scottish Icelandic Scottish Karelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Karelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierEurope_LNBA_Hungary KarelianOrcadian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierEurope_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_BellBeakerKarelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierDolni_KremsWA3 Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Dolni_KremsWA3 Orcadian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Orcadian Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Dolni_KremsWA3 Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Veps Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraIrish_Ulster Steppe_MLBA_AndronovoVeps Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicSteppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic EN_TRB Irish_Ulster Veps Irish_Ulster Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic EN_TRB Olsund EN_TRB Olsund Olsund Europe_LNBA_Unetice IcelandicEnglish Europe_LNBA_UneticeSaami_WGA IcelandicEnglish Europe_LNBA_UneticeEN_TRB Icelandic EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Saami_WGA English Saami_WGA EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Central

Baltic LN Baltic BA 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Kunda Narva Narva Narva Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Narva Narva Narva Narva Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Switzerland_HG Switzerland_HG Malta_AfontovaGora3 Narva Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 SHG Malta_AfontovaGora3 Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 SHG Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Villabruna SHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 WHG WHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 SHG Villabruna_Rochedane WHG WHG WHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Rochedane WHG Kunda WHG Baltic_BA Villabruna_Villabruna WHG EHG Kunda WHG Baltic_BA Villabruna_Villabruna Baltic_BA EHG WHG Narva Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Baltic_BA Switzerland_HG SHG Narva Baltic_BA Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Villabruna_Ranchot88 Switzerland_HG SHG Switzerland_HG Baltic_BA Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Narva Switzerland_HG SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Rochedane Narva Switzerland_HG SHG Villabruna_Rochedane SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Switzerland_HG Villabruna_Rochedane AG2 SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Rochedane WHG AG2 Villabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Ranchot88 Lithuanian WHG Villabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Falkenstein PWC Lithuanian Villabruna_Villabruna Switzerland_HG Villabruna_Falkenstein Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara PWC SHG Villabruna_Villabruna Switzerland_HG Villabruna_RochedaneSteppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara SHG SHG MA1 Villabruna_Rochedane Estonian Lithuanian SHG Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara MA1 PWC Estonian Lithuanian Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara PWC PWC WHG Villabruna_Villabruna Sorb Europe_LNBA_Hungary PWC Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka WHG ElMiron_ElMiron Sorb Europe_LNBA_Hungary Sorb Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka ElMiron_ElMiron ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Sorb EHG ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Belarusian EHG Polish Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Belarusian Sweden_HG Sweden_HG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Polish PWC EHG Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1 EHG Polish PWC Icelandic Villabruna_Villabruna Polish EHG EHG Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Icelandic Estonian Baltic_BA Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Baltic_BA PWC Estonian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralKarelian PWC Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Villabruna_Villabruna Karelian Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Europe_LNBA_Hungary Olsund Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_LNBA_Hungary Icelandic Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Finnish Olsund Icelandic Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Hungary Villabruna_Rochedane Finnish Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Switzerland_HG Villabruna_Rochedane Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_Central Belarusian Switzerland_HG Ukrainian Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Belarusian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centr Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Russian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centr Norwegian Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Russian Lithuanian Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Lithuanian Switzerland_HG Norwegian Olsund PWC Switzerland_HG Lithuanian Karelian Olsund Ukrainian PWC Karelian Europe_LNBA_Vatya Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_Vatya Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Ukrainian Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Lithuanian Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia MN_TRB Czech Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Czech Lithuanian Czech Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier MN_TRB Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Baltic_BA Czech Baltic_BA Europe_LNBA_Vatya Sorb Europe_LNBA_Central Norwegian Sorb Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_Central Estonian Irish Norwegian Irish Estonian Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Villabruna_Ranchot88 Baltic_LN Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Karelian Europe_LNBA_Central Russian Villabruna_Ranchot88 Russian Karelian Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Belarusian Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka German Belarusian Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Sorb Baltic_LN PWC German PWC Sorb Baltic_LN Baltic_LN Polish Europe_LNBA_Hungary Irish Polish Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_MNChL_Iberia Villabruna_Ranchot88 Irish Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Veps Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Scottish Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Estonian Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Baltic_LN Estonian Veps Scottish Baltic_LN Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Ukrainian Shetlandic Europe_LNBA_Unetice Shetlandic Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Shetlandic Shetlandic Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Steppe_MLBA_Potapovka Steppe_MLBA_Potapovka Russian German Estonian Orcadian Russian Estonian Europe_MNChL_Iberia Sorb German Orcadian Europe_MNChL_Iberia Sorb Steppe_EMBA_Russia_EBA Steppe_EMBA_Russia_EBA Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Scottish Villabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Villabruna_Ranchot88 Icelandic Karelian Scottish Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Icelandic Karelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Karelian OrcadianSteppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_Hungary Karelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Dolni_KremsWA3 Orcadian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Dolni_KremsWA3 Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Irish_Ulster Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Veps Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic EN_TRB Irish_Ulster Veps Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic EN_TRB Olsund Olsund Europe_LNBA_Unetice Saami_WGA Icelandic English Europe_LNBA_Unetice Icelandic EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Saami_WGA English EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Central

Modern Lithuanian Modern Estonian 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Kunda Kunda Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Narva Narva Narva Narva Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Narva Narva Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Switzerland_HG Narva Narva Switzerland_HG Malta_AfontovaGora3 Malta_AfontovaGora3 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 SHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1 SHG Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Villabruna SHG SHG WHG WHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 WHG Villabruna_Rochedane WHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Rochedane WHG WHG WHG Kunda WHG Kunda Villabruna_Villabruna EHG Baltic_BA Villabruna_Villabruna EHG WHG Baltic_BA Baltic_BA WHG Narva Narva Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Baltic_BA Switzerland_HG SHG Baltic_BA Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Villabruna_Ranchot88 Switzerland_HG SHG Switzerland_HG Baltic_BA Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Narva Switzerland_HG SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Rochedane Narva Switzerland_HG SHG Villabruna_Rochedane SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Switzerland_HG Villabruna_Rochedane AG2 SHG Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Rochedane WHG AG2 Villabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Ranchot88 Lithuanian WHG Villabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Falkenstein PWC Lithuanian Villabruna_Villabruna Switzerland_HG Villabruna_Falkenstein Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara PWC SHG Villabruna_Villabruna Switzerland_HG Villabruna_RochedaneSteppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara SHG SHG MA1 Villabruna_Rochedane Estonian Lithuanian SHG Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara MA1 PWC Estonian Lithuanian Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara PWC PWC WHG Villabruna_Villabruna Sorb Europe_LNBA_Hungary PWC Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka WHG ElMiron_ElMiron Sorb Europe_LNBA_Hungary Sorb Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka ElMiron_ElMiron ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Sorb EHG ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Belarusian EHG Polish Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Belarusian Sweden_HG Sweden_HG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Polish PWC EHG Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1 EHG Polish PWC Icelandic Villabruna_Villabruna Polish EHG EHG Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Icelandic Estonian Baltic_BA Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Baltic_BA PWC Estonian KarelianEurope_LNBA_CordedWare_Central PWC Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Villabruna_Villabruna Karelian Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Europe_LNBA_Hungary Olsund Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_LNBA_Hungary Icelandic Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Finnish Olsund Icelandic Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Hungary Villabruna_Rochedane Finnish Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Switzerland_HG Villabruna_Rochedane Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_Central Belarusian Switzerland_HG Ukrainian Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Belarusian Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Russian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centr Norwegian Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Russian Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centr Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Lithuanian Norwegian Switzerland_HG Lithuanian Switzerland_HG Olsund PWC Karelian Olsund Lithuanian PWC Europe_LNBA_Vatya Ukrainian Karelian Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_Vatya Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Lithuanian Czech Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara MN_TRB Lithuanian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier MN_TRB Czech Czech Czech Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Sorb Europe_LNBA_Central Norwegian Sorb Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_Central Estonian Europe_LNBA_Vatya Irish Norwegian Irish Estonian Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Steppe_EMBA_Afanasievo Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Villabruna_Ranchot88 Baltic_LN Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Kalmykia Karelian Europe_LNBA_Central Russian Villabruna_Ranchot88 Russian Karelian Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Belarusian Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka German Belarusian Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Sorb Baltic_LN PWC German PWC Sorb Baltic_LN Baltic_LN Polish Europe_LNBA_Hungary Irish Polish Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_MNChL_Iberia Villabruna_Ranchot88 Irish Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Scottish Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Estonian Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Baltic_LN Estonian Veps Scottish Veps Baltic_LN Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_Unetice Shetlandic Ukrainian Europe_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Shetlandic Shetlandic Shetlandic Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Steppe_MLBA_Potapovka Steppe_MLBA_Potapovka Russian Estonian Orcadian Russian Estonian Europe_MNChL_Iberia Sorb German Orcadian German Europe_MNChL_Iberia Sorb Steppe_EMBA_Russia_EBA Steppe_EMBA_Russia_EBA Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Villabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Villabruna_Ranchot88 Icelandic Karelian Scottish Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Scottish Icelandic Karelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Karelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_Hungary Karelian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Dolni_KremsWA3 Orcadian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Orcadian Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Dolni_KremsWA3 Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Veps Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic EN_TRB Irish_Ulster Veps Irish_Ulster Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic EN_TRB Olsund Olsund Europe_LNBA_Unetice Icelandic English Europe_LNBA_Unetice Icelandic EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Saami_WGA English Saami_WGA EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Central

Extended Data Figure 2. Outgroup f3-statistics for ancient and modern eastern Baltic populations. Values shown for the statistic f3(Eastern Baltic Population, X; Mbuti), where X is a modern or ancient population. The thirty highest hits are shown and error bars represent three standard errors.

21 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/113241; this version posted March 3, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

SHG EN TRB MN TRB 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.240.24 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.3 0.3 0.24 0.230.26 0.250.28 0.270.3 0.29 0.25 0.270.24 0.29 0.260.31 0.330.28 0.3 0.24 0.260.24 0.280.26 0.3 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.270.25 0.290.27 0.310.29 0.330.31 0.33 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda SHG Europe_MNChL_Central Kunda Kunda KundaKunda Kunda Kunda SHG Kunda Europe_MNChL_Central Kunda Kunda SHG Europe_MNChL_Central Kunda Kunda Narva WHG Narva Europe_MNChL_Central Kunda Europe_MNChL_Hungary Narva WHG NarvaNarva Europe_MNChL_Central WHG Kunda Narva Europe_MNChL_HungaryEurope_MNChL_Central Narva Kunda Europe_MNChL_Hungary Narva Narva SHG Narva WHG Europe_EN_Iberia Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_EN_Starcevo SHG Narva WHGSHG Europe_EN_Iberia Narva Villabruna_Chaudardes1 WHG Europe_EN_StarcevoEurope_EN_Iberia Villabruna_VillabrunaVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_EN_Starcevo Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Villabruna Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Villabruna_Rochedane EN_TRB WHG Europe_MNChL_Iberia Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Villabruna_RochedaneBaltic_BA EN_TRBBaltic_BA Villabruna_RochedaneWHG Europe_MNChL_Iberia EN_TRB WHG WHG Europe_MNChL_Iberia WHG WHG WHG Europe_LNBA_Unetice Switzerland_HG Europe_MNChL_Iberia Narva Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic WHG Europe_LNBA_Unetice Switzerland_HGWHG Europe_MNChL_IberiaEurope_LNBA_Unetice NarvaSwitzerland_HG Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicEurope_MNChL_Iberia Villabruna_Rochedane Narva Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_Vatya Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_EN_Hungary Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_Vatya Villabruna_Chaudardes1Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicEurope_LNBA_Vatya Villabruna_VillabrunaVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicEurope_EN_Hungary Villabruna_Chaudardes1Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_EN_Hungary Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 PWC SHG Europe_MNChL_Hungary Switzerland_HG MN_TRB Villabruna_Chaudardes1 PWC Villabruna_Chaudardes1SHG Europe_MNChL_Hungary PWC Switzerland_HG SHG Europe_MNChL_HungaryMN_TRB PWCSwitzerland_HG MN_TRB PWC PWC Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_Hungary Villabruna_Villabruna WHG Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_EN_LBK Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_Hungary Villabruna_VillabrunaEurope_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_HungaryWHG Villabruna_Ranchot88Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_EN_LBK WHG Villabruna_Ranchot88Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_EN_LBK Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Hungary Baltic_BA Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_EN_Iberia Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_CentralBaltic_BA Villabruna_Chaudardes1Europe_LNBA_Hungary Villabruna_Rochedane Baltic_BA Europe_EN_IberiaVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Switzerland_HGVillabruna_Rochedane Europe_EN_Iberia Switzerland_HG Switzerland_HG PWC German Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_MNChL_Remedello EHG Anatolia_N PWC German Europe_LNBA_VatyaPWC Europe_MNChL_RemedelloGerman Europe_LNBA_VatyaEHG Europe_MNChL_RemedelloAnatolia_N EHG EHG Anatolia_N EHG EHG Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Norwegian Lithuanian Europe_EN_LBK Villabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Norwegian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierLithuanian Europe_EN_LBKNorwegian Villabruna_Falkenstein Lithuanian Villabruna_VillabrunaEurope_EN_LBK Villabruna_FalkensteinVillabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Falkenstein Baltic_LN Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_EN_Hungary Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Kunda Baltic_LN Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralBaltic_LN Europe_EN_HungaryEurope_MNChL_Iberia Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraEurope_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_EN_HungaryKunda Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraSteppe_Eneolithic_Samara Kunda Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara English Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Anatolia_N MN_TRB Narva Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara English Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraSteppe_EMBA_Potapovka Anatolia_N English Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaMN_TRB Narva Anatolia_N Baltic_BA MN_TRB Narva Baltic_BA Baltic_BA EHG Orcadian Olsund Villabruna_Villabruna Baltic_BA WHG EHG Orcadian OlsundEHG Villabruna_VillabrunaOrcadian Baltic_BA Olsund Villabruna_VillabrunaWHG ElMiron_ElMiron Baltic_BA WHG ElMiron_ElMiron ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Europe_LNBA_Unetice Europe_EN_Starcevo Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Europe_LNBA_UneticeSteppe_EMBA_Poltavka Europe_EN_StarcevoSteppe_Eneolithic_Samara Europe_LNBA_UneticeLithuanian Europe_LNBA_HungaryEurope_EN_Starcevo Europe_LNBA_Hungary Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Icelandic Icelandic Switzerland_HG ElMiron_ElMiron Switzerland_HG Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Icelandic Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralIcelandic Switzerland_HGIcelandic ElMiron_ElMiron Icelandic Switzerland_HGSwitzerland_HG LithuanianElMiron_ElMiron Switzerland_HG Lithuanian Lithuanian Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya SHG Norwegian PWC Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_Remedello Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya SHG Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaNorwegian PWC SHG Europe_LNBA_HungaryNorwegian Europe_MNChL_Remedello PWC Steppe_EMBA_SrubnayaEurope_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_Remedello Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Europe_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka PWC Europe_LNBA_Hungary Estonian Sardinian Europe_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Europe_LNBA_UneticePWC Europe_LNBA_HungarySteppe_EMBA_Poltavka Estonian PWC Europe_LNBA_HungarySardinian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Estonian Sardinian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Lithuanian Basque Irish Narva Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_Vatya Lithuanian Basque LithuanianIrish NarvaBasque Europe_LNBA_Vatya Irish Europe_LNBA_Vatya Narva Baltic_LNEurope_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_Vatya Baltic_LN Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Scottish Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Icelandic Villabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Scottish Villabruna_Ranchot88Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Villabruna_Ranchot88Scottish Villabruna_Ranchot88Icelandic Villabruna_Ranchot88Villabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Icelandic Villabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Switzerland_HG Shetlandic Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Iberia_BA Sorb Basque Switzerland_HG Shetlandic Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaSwitzerland_HG Iberia_BAShetlandic Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaSorb Basque Iberia_BA Europe_LNBA_Central Sorb Basque Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Central Villabruna_Villabruna Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Sardinian Olsund Anatolia_ChL Villabruna_Villabruna Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_HungaryVillabruna_Villabruna SardinianLithuanian Europe_LNBA_HungaryOlsund Anatolia_ChL Sardinian Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Olsund Anatolia_ChL Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Irish Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centra Europe_LNBA_Central Villabruna_Rochedane Norwegian Spanish_North Irish Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centra Europe_LNBA_CentralIrish Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentraVillabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_CentralNorwegian Spanish_NorthVillabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_Vatya Norwegian Spanish_North Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_MNChL_Hungary Estonian Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Basque Karelian Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_MNChL_Hungary Estonian Steppe_MLBA_AndronovoEurope_MNChL_Hungary BasqueEstonian Steppe_MLBA_AndronovoKarelian Villabruna_Rochedane Basque Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Karelian Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Irish_Ulster Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Europe_LNBA_Vatya Malta_AfontovaGora2 Europe_LNBA_Central Irish_Ulster Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraIrish_Ulster Europe_LNBA_VatyaVillabruna_Villabruna Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraMalta_AfontovaGora2 Europe_LNBA_CentralEurope_LNBA_Vatya Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaMalta_AfontovaGora2 Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Scottish Spanish_North Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya SHG Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Europe_MNChL_IberiaScottish Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicSpanish_North Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Scottish SHGSpanish_North Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaEstonian SHG Estonian Estonian Norwegian Irish_Ulster Estonian SHG Baltic_LN Baltic_BA Norwegian Irish_Ulster EstonianNorwegian SHGIrish_Ulster Baltic_LN Estonian Baltic_BA SHG Saami_WGA Baltic_LN Baltic_BA Saami_WGA Saami_WGA Icelandic Europe_MNChL_Central Shetlandic Europe_LNBA_Central Polish PWC Icelandic Europe_MNChL_Central ShetlandicIcelandic Europe_LNBA_CentralEurope_MNChL_Central Polish Shetlandic Europe_LNBA_CentralPWC Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Polish PWC Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_Central Orcadian Icelandic Belarusian Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_Central OrcadianEN_TRB Europe_LNBA_CentralIcelandic Belarusian Orcadian Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Icelandic Europe_LNBA_Unetice Belarusian Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_Unetice Europe_LNBA_Unetice Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker English Europe_LNBA_Unetice Icelandic Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_BellBeakerEurope_LNBA_BellBeaker Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierEnglish Europe_LNBA_UneticeEurope_LNBA_BellBeaker Icelandic English Europe_LNBA_UneticeOlsund Icelandic Olsund Olsund

PWC Scandinavia LNBA Scandinavia LBA

0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.260.28 0.280.3 0.3 0.25 0.270.23 0.290.240.25 0.31 0.260.270.33 0.290.28 0.3 0.24 0.260.24 0.280.23 0.26 0.3 0.25 0.28 0.27 0.3 0.29 0.25 0.27 0.240.29 0.260.310.24 0.330.280.26 0.3 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.270.24 0.29 0.260.31 0.280.33 0.3 0.24 0.260.25 0.280.27 0.290.3 0.31 0.33 0.25 0.270.24 0.29 0.260.31 0.280.33 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33

Kunda Kunda Kunda KundaKunda SHG Kunda Kunda Europe_MNChL_Central Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda SHG Kunda Europe_MNChL_Central SHG Europe_MNChL_CentralKunda Kunda Narva WHG Narva Europe_MNChL_CentralNarva Kunda WHG Narva Europe_MNChL_Hungary Narva WHG Europe_MNChL_CentralNarva Narva Europe_MNChL_CentralKunda Europe_MNChL_Hungary Kunda Europe_MNChL_HungaryNarva Narva SHG Narva WHG Europe_EN_IberiaSHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Narva SHG Europe_EN_Starcevo WHG Narva Villabruna_VillabrunaEurope_EN_Iberia WHG Villabruna_Chaudardes1Europe_EN_Iberia Europe_EN_StarcevoVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_VillabrunaEurope_EN_Starcevo Villabruna_Villabruna Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Villabruna_Rochedane EN_TRBBaltic_BA WHG Baltic_BABaltic_BA Europe_MNChL_IberiaVillabruna_Rochedane Baltic_BA WHG Villabruna_RochedaneEN_TRB WHG EN_TRB Europe_MNChL_Iberia WHG Europe_MNChL_IberiaWHG WHG WHG Europe_LNBA_Unetice Switzerland_HG Europe_MNChL_IberiaWHG Europe_LNBA_UneticeNarva WHG Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicSwitzerland_HG Europe_LNBA_Unetice Villabruna_RochedaneEurope_MNChL_Iberia Switzerland_HG Europe_MNChL_IberiaNarva Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Narva Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicVillabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_Vatya Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicVillabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_VillabrunaEurope_LNBA_VatyaVillabruna_Rochedane Europe_EN_HungaryVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_LNBA_Vatya Villabruna_Chaudardes1Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicVillabruna_Villabruna Europe_EN_HungaryVillabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Chaudardes1Europe_EN_Hungary Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 PWC SHG Europe_MNChL_HungaryVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Switzerland_HGVillabruna_Chaudardes1 PWC MN_TRB SHG PWC Europe_MNChL_HungaryPWC SHG Switzerland_HGEurope_MNChL_Hungary MN_TRBSwitzerland_HG PWC MN_TRB PWC Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_Hungary Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_LNBA_HungaryWHG Villabruna_Ranchot88Europe_MNChL_HungaryEurope_LNBA_Hungary Europe_EN_LBKVillabruna_VillabrunaEurope_MNChL_Hungary Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_VillabrunaWHG Villabruna_Ranchot88 WHG Europe_EN_LBKVillabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88Europe_EN_LBK Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Hungary Baltic_BA Villabruna_Chaudardes1Europe_LNBA_Central Villabruna_RochedaneEurope_LNBA_HungaryEurope_LNBA_Central Europe_EN_Iberia Europe_LNBA_HungaryBaltic_BA Switzerland_HGVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Baltic_BA Villabruna_RochedaneVillabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_EN_IberiaVillabruna_Rochedane Switzerland_HGEurope_EN_Iberia Switzerland_HG PWC German Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_MNChL_RemedelloPWC EHG German PWC Anatolia_NEurope_LNBA_Vatya German Europe_MNChL_RemedelloEHG Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_MNChL_RemedelloEHG Anatolia_N EHG EHG Anatolia_N EHG Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Norwegian Lithuanian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierEurope_EN_LBK Villabruna_FalkensteinSteppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierNorwegian Villabruna_Villabruna LithuanianNorwegian Villabruna_FalkensteinEurope_EN_LBK Lithuanian Villabruna_FalkensteinEurope_EN_LBK Villabruna_VillabrunaVillabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_FalkensteinVillabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Falkenstein Baltic_LN Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_EN_HungaryBaltic_LN Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraEurope_MNChL_Iberia Baltic_LN Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralKunda Europe_MNChL_Iberia Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraEurope_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralEurope_EN_Hungary Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraEurope_EN_Hungary Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraKunda Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Kunda Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara English Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraAnatolia_N Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraMN_TRB English Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaNarva English Baltic_BA Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaAnatolia_N MN_TRB Anatolia_N Narva MN_TRB Baltic_BA Narva Baltic_BA EHG Orcadian Olsund Villabruna_VillabrunaEHG Baltic_BA Orcadian EHG WHG Olsund Orcadian ElMiron_ElMironVillabruna_Villabruna Olsund Baltic_BAVillabruna_Villabruna WHG Baltic_BA ElMiron_ElMiron WHG ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Europe_LNBA_Unetice Europe_EN_StarcevoSteppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_Eneolithic_SamaraLithuanianSteppe_EMBA_Poltavka Europe_LNBA_HungaryEurope_LNBA_UneticeSteppe_Eneolithic_Samara Europe_LNBA_HungaryEurope_EN_Starcevo Europe_LNBA_Unetice LithuanianEurope_EN_Starcevo Europe_LNBA_Hungary Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_HungaryEurope_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Icelandic Icelandic Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralSwitzerland_HG Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralElMiron_ElMiron Icelandic Switzerland_HG Icelandic Icelandic LithuanianSwitzerland_HG Icelandic ElMiron_ElMironSwitzerland_HG Switzerland_HGElMiron_ElMiron LithuanianSwitzerland_HG Lithuanian Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya SHG Norwegian Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaPWC Europe_LNBA_HungarySteppe_MLBA_Srubnaya SHG Europe_MNChL_Remedello Norwegian SHG Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya PWC Norwegian Europe_LNBA_Hungary PWC Europe_MNChL_RemedelloEurope_LNBA_Hungary Steppe_EMBA_SrubnayaEurope_MNChL_Remedello Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Europe_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka PWC Europe_LNBA_HungaryEurope_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_EMBA_PoltavkaEstonianEurope_LNBA_Unetice SardinianSteppe_EMBA_Poltavka PWC Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierEurope_LNBA_Hungary PWC Europe_LNBA_HungaryEstonian Sardinian Estonian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Sardinian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Lithuanian Basque Irish NarvaLithuanian Europe_LNBA_Vatya BasqueLithuanian Europe_LNBA_Vatya Irish Basque Baltic_LN Narva Irish Europe_LNBA_Vatya Narva Europe_LNBA_VatyaEurope_LNBA_Vatya Baltic_LNEurope_LNBA_Vatya Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Scottish Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya IcelandicSteppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Scottish Villabruna_Ranchot88Villabruna_Ranchot88 Scottish Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraVillabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88Icelandic Villabruna_Ranchot88 Icelandic Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraVillabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Switzerland_HG Shetlandic Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Switzerland_HGIberia_BA SorbShetlandic Switzerland_HG Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaBasque Shetlandic Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaIberia_BA Sorb Iberia_BA Basque Sorb Europe_LNBA_Central Basque Europe_LNBA_Central Villabruna_Villabruna Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Villabruna_VillabrunaSardinian OlsundVillabruna_VillabrunaLithuanian Anatolia_ChLEurope_LNBA_Hungary Lithuanian Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Europe_LNBA_HungarySardinian Olsund Sardinian Anatolia_ChL Olsund Steppe_EMBA_PotapovkaAnatolia_ChL Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Irish Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centra Europe_LNBA_Central Villabruna_Rochedane Irish Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentraNorwegian Irish Spanish_NorthEurope_LNBA_CordedWare_CentraEurope_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_VatyaVillabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_Central NorwegianVillabruna_Rochedane Spanish_North Norwegian Europe_LNBA_VatyaSpanish_North Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_MNChL_Hungary Estonian Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Europe_MNChL_HungaryBasque KarelianEurope_MNChL_Hungary Estonian Villabruna_RochedaneSteppe_MLBA_Andronovo Estonian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Steppe_MLBA_AndronovoBasque Karelian Basque Villabruna_Rochedane Karelian Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_CentralVillabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Irish_Ulster Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Europe_LNBA_VatyaIrish_Ulster Malta_AfontovaGora2Villabruna_Villabruna Irish_Ulster Europe_LNBA_CentralSteppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaSteppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_SamaraEurope_LNBA_Vatya Malta_AfontovaGora2Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_CentralMalta_AfontovaGora2 Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaEurope_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Scottish Europe_MNChL_IberiaSpanish_North Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaEurope_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicEurope_MNChL_Iberia Europe_MNChL_Iberia_ChalcolithicSHG Scottish Estonian Spanish_North Scottish Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaSpanish_North Steppe_MLBA_SrubnayaSHG Estonian SHG Estonian Norwegian Irish_Ulster Estonian NorwegianSHG Baltic_LNIrish_Ulster Norwegian Baltic_BA EstonianIrish_Ulster Saami_WGA SHG Estonian Baltic_LN SHG Baltic_BA Baltic_LN Saami_WGA Baltic_BA Saami_WGA Icelandic Europe_MNChL_Central Shetlandic Europe_LNBA_CentralIcelandic Europe_MNChL_CentralPolish Icelandic PWCEurope_MNChL_Central Shetlandic Steppe_EMBA_PoltavkaEurope_LNBA_Central Shetlandic Europe_LNBA_CentralPolish PWC Polish Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka PWC Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_Central Orcadian IcelandicEN_TRB Europe_LNBA_CentralBelarusian EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_CentralOrcadian Europe_LNBA_Unetice Icelandic Orcadian Belarusian Icelandic Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Belarusian Europe_LNBA_UneticeEurope_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_Unetice Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_BellBeakerEnglish Europe_LNBA_UneticeSteppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlierEurope_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_BellBeakerIcelandicSteppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Olsund Europe_LNBA_BellBeakerEnglish Europe_LNBA_Unetice English Europe_LNBA_UneticeIcelandic Olsund Icelandic Olsund

Olsund (Sweden LNBA) 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 Kunda Kunda Kunda Kunda SHG Europe_MNChL_Central Kunda Narva WHG Narva Europe_MNChL_Central Kunda Europe_MNChL_Hungary Narva SHG Narva WHG Europe_EN_Iberia Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_EN_Starcevo Villabruna_Villabruna Baltic_BA Baltic_BA Villabruna_Rochedane EN_TRB WHG Europe_MNChL_Iberia WHG WHG Europe_LNBA_Unetice Switzerland_HG Europe_MNChL_Iberia Narva Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Villabruna_Rochedane Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_Vatya Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Villabruna_Villabruna Europe_EN_Hungary Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Chaudardes1 PWC SHG Europe_MNChL_Hungary Switzerland_HG MN_TRB PWC Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_Hungary Villabruna_Villabruna WHG Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_EN_LBK Villabruna_Ranchot88 Europe_LNBA_Central Europe_LNBA_Hungary Baltic_BA Villabruna_Chaudardes1 Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_EN_Iberia Switzerland_HG PWC German Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_MNChL_Remedello EHG Anatolia_N EHG Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Norwegian Lithuanian Europe_EN_LBK Villabruna_Falkenstein Villabruna_Villabruna Villabruna_Falkenstein Baltic_LN Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Europe_EN_Hungary Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Kunda Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara English Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Anatolia_N MN_TRB Narva Baltic_BA EHG Orcadian Olsund Villabruna_Villabruna Baltic_BA WHG ElMiron_ElMiron Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka Steppe_Eneolithic_Samara Europe_LNBA_Unetice Europe_EN_Starcevo Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Icelandic Icelandic Switzerland_HG ElMiron_ElMiron Switzerland_HG Lithuanian Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya SHG Norwegian PWC Europe_LNBA_Hungary Europe_MNChL_Remedello Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Europe_LNBA_Unetice Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka PWC Europe_LNBA_Hungary Estonian Sardinian Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Lithuanian Basque Irish Narva Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_LNBA_Vatya Baltic_LN Steppe_EMBA_Srubnaya Scottish Villabruna_Ranchot88 Villabruna_Ranchot88 Icelandic Villabruna_Ranchot88 Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Switzerland_HG Shetlandic Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Iberia_BA Sorb Basque Europe_LNBA_Central Villabruna_Villabruna Lithuanian Europe_LNBA_Hungary Sardinian Olsund Anatolia_ChL Steppe_EMBA_Potapovka Irish Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Centra Europe_LNBA_Central Villabruna_Rochedane Norwegian Spanish_North Europe_LNBA_Vatya Europe_MNChL_Hungary Estonian Steppe_MLBA_Andronovo Basque Karelian Villabruna_Rochedane Europe_LNBA_CordedWare_Central Irish_Ulster Villabruna_Villabruna Steppe_EMBA_Yamnaya_Samara Europe_LNBA_Vatya Malta_AfontovaGora2 Europe_LNBA_Central Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya Europe_MNChL_Iberia Europe_MNChL_Iberia_Chalcolithic Scottish Spanish_North Steppe_MLBA_Srubnaya SHG Estonian Norwegian Irish_Ulster Estonian SHG Baltic_LN Baltic_BA Saami_WGA Icelandic Europe_MNChL_Central Shetlandic Europe_LNBA_Central Polish PWC Steppe_EMBA_Poltavka EN_TRB Europe_LNBA_Central Orcadian Icelandic Belarusian Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Europe_LNBA_Unetice Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker Steppe_MLBA_Poltavka_outlier Europe_LNBA_BellBeaker English Europe_LNBA_Unetice Icelandic Olsund

Extended Data Figure 3. Outgroup f3-statistics for ancient Scandinavian populations. Values shown for the statistic f3(Ancient Scandinavian Population, X; Mbuti), where X is a modern or ancient population. The thirty highest hits are shown and error bars represent three standard errors.

22 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/113241; this version posted March 3, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 ! 0 PC2 0.01 − 0.02 − Steppe Yamnaya Baltic LN

0.03 Steppe EMBA Baltic BA − Steppe MLBA Scandinavia LNBA Central Europe CWC Olsund

0.04 Europe LNBA Scandinavia LBA − −0.04 −0.03 −0.02 −0.01 0 0.01 PC 1! Extended Data Figure 4. PCA projection of Late Neolithic and Bronze Age Europeans. Zoom-in of corresponding plot in Fig. 2a. Samples introduced in this study are marked with a red outline.

23 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/113241; this version posted March 3, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Mesolithic - ! Bronze Age! Early/Middle Neolithic! Late Neolithic! n=17! n=31! n=11! U2! 3%! 3%! U4!

7%! 9%! U5a! 18%! 18%! 9%! 23%! U5b! K! 29%! 6%! 32%! 9%! 9%! H! 6%! I! 9%! J! 18%!

9%! 47%! T1! 26%! 9%! T2! W!

Extended Data Figure 5. Shift of mtDNA haplogroup frequencies at the onset of the Late Neolithic in the eastern Baltic region. Frequency pie charts of 52 eastern Baltic mtDNA haplogroups generated in this study and seven haplogroups from Bramanti et al. (2009) and Jones et al. (2017).

24 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/113241; this version posted March 3, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Extended Data Table 1. Information on ancient samples for which we report nuclear data in this study.

et

Sample Name Sample produced data nuclear by calibrated CI 95.4% radiocarbonage (calBCE)/contextual (BCE) dating label Population location Site Latitude Longitude Sex Genetic overlapping SNPs s 1240k on coverage Average SNPs1240k haplogroup mtDNA haplogroup Y

Yuzhnyy Oleni Ostrov, UzOO77 1240k 5500-5000 BCE EHG 62.05 35.36 F 509212 0.733 R1b Archangelsk, Russia

Popovo, Archangelsk, Popovo2 1240k 5500-5000 BCE EHG 61.26 38.91 M 68042 0.064 U4d Russia

Spiginas4 1240k 6440-6230 calBCE Kunda Spiginas, Lithuania 55.77 22.42 F 663885 1.122 U4a2

Spiginas1 1240k 4440-4240 calBCE Narva Spiginas, Lithuania 55.77 22.42 M 962584 6.106 H11a I2a1a2a1a

Donkalnis6 1240k 4720-4530 calBCE Narva Donkalnis, Lithuania 55.81 22.42 F 933997 6.030 U5a2e

5500/5300- Kretuonas 1B, Kretuonas4 1240k Narva 55.26 26.10 F 993319 8.792 U5b1b1a 3100/2900 BCE Lithuania

5500/5300- Kretuonas 1B, Kretuonas2 1240k Narva 55.26 26.10 M 634269 1.282 U5b2b I2a1b 3100/2900 BCE Lithuania

Kvärlöv, Saxtorp, Saxtorp5158 1240k 3625-3371 calBCE EN_TRB 55.84 12.97 F 40083 0.038 H Skåne, Sweden

Kvärlöv, Saxtorp, Saxtorp5164 1240k 3945-3647 calBCE EN_TRB 55.84 12.97 F 370367 0.587 T2b Skåne, Sweden

Kunila2 Shotgun 2580-2340 calBCE Baltic_LN Kunila, Estonia 58.33 26.15 M 382562 0.455 J1c3 R1a1a1

Gyvakarai1 Shotgun 2620-2470 calBCE Baltic_LN Gyvakarai, Lithuania 55.92 24.91 M 1122796 7.098 K1b2a R1a1a1b

Spiginas2 1240k 2130-1750 calBCE Baltic_LN Spiginas, Lithuania 55.77 22.42 M 870598 3.164 I4a R1a1a1b

Plinkaigalis242 1240k 3260-2630 calBCE Baltic_LN Plinkaigalis, Lithuania 55.41 23.65 F 861862 2.574 W6a

Plinkaigalis241 1240k 2860-2410 calBCE Baltic_LN Plinkaigalis, Lithuania 55.41 23.65 F 190225 0.213 I2

Ölsund, Hälsingland, Olsund 1240k 2573-2140 calBCE Olsund 61.66 17.00 M 674610 2.225 U4c2a R1a1a1b Sweden

Turlojiske3 1240k 1010-800 calBCE Baltic_BA Turlojiškė II, Lithuania 54.36 23.33 M 471779 0.671 H4a1a1a3 R1a1a1b

Kivutkalns19 1240k 730-400 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 M 896471 5.760 H10a R1a1a1b

Kivutkalns25 1240k 800-545 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 M 682042 1.569 H28a R1a1a1b

Kivutkalns42 1240k 810-560 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 F 585203 1.102 H1b1

Kivutkalns194 1240k 800-545 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 M 130958 0.152 T1a1b R1a1a

Kivutkalns207 1240k 730-390 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 F 915334 7.212 H1b2

Kivutkalns209 1240k 405-230 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 M 807138 2.240 J1b1a1 R1a1a

Kivutkalns215 1240k 790-535 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 F 850417 2.735 H1c

Kivutkalns222 1240k 805-515 calBCE Baltic_BA Kivutkalns, Latvia 56.85 24.27 M 641886 1.278 U5a1c1 R1a1

25 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/113241; this version posted March 3, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Extended Data Table 2. Allele information of SNPs thought to be affected by selection. Only high-quality (q>30) bases are counted. rs4988235 is responsible for lactase persistence in Europe, the SNPs at SLC24A5 and SLC45A2 for light skin pigmentation. The SNP at EDAR affects tooth morphology and hair thickness. The SNP at HERC2 is the primary determinant of light eye color in present-day Europeans. We highlight sites that are likely heterozygous in pink and sites that are likely to be homozygous for the derived allele in blue. DAF= Derived allele frequency.

LCT SLC45A2 SLC24A5 EDAR HERC2 SNP rs4988235 rs16891982 rs1426654 rs3827760 rs12913832 Population Sample Ancestral G C G A A Derived A G A G G Coverage 3 1 0 7 0 EHG UzOO77 DAF 0% 0% n/a 0% n/a Coverage 4 3 2 0 2 Kunda Spiginas4 DAF 0% 0% 0% n/a 100% Coverage 30 31 6 20 13 Spiginas1 DAF 0% 0% 50% 0% 100% Coverage 34 17 1 21 12 Donkalnis6 DAF 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% Narva Coverage 4 5 1 6 2 Kretuonas2 DAF 0% 100% 100% 0% 100% Coverage 48 25 4 38 18 Kretuonas4 DAF 0% 100% 75% 0% 100% Coverage 7 5 10 9 8 Gyvakarai1 DAF 0% 60% 100% 0% 100% Coverage 1 0 1 0 1 Kunila2 DAF 0% n/a 100% n/a 0% Baltic Coverage 30 31 6 20 13 Spiginas1 LNBA DAF 0% 0% 50% 0% 100% Coverage 1 0 0 2 0 Plinkaigalis241 DAF 100% n/a n/a 0% n/a Coverage 7 5 3 9 2 Plinkaigalis242 DAF 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% Coverage 1 2 0 0 0 Kvarlov5164 DAF 0% 50% n/a n/a n/a EN TRB Coverage 5 2 0 1 1 Kvarlov5158 DAF 0% 50% n/a 0% 100% Sweden Coverage 8 4 4 9 2 Olsund LNBA DAF 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% Coverage 1 0 0 1 2 Turlojiske3 DAF 0% n/a n/a 0% 100% Coverage 18 28 4 47 15 Kivutkalns207 DAF 61% 50% 100% 0% 100% Coverage 26 19 5 19 14 Kivutkalns19 DAF 0% 100% 100% 0% 64% Coverage 1 0 0 1 0 Kivutkalns194 DAF 100% n/a n/a 0% n/a Baltic Coverage 7 11 2 17 3 Kivutkalns215 Bronze Age DAF 57% 0% 100% 0% 100% Coverage 5 11 2 10 3 Kivutkalns209 DAF 20% 100% 100% 0% 100% Coverage 6 6 1 10 1 Kivutkalns25 DAF 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% Coverage 3 4 0 7 3 Kivutkalns222 DAF 33% 100% n/a 0% 100% Coverage 3 9 0 4 2 Kivutkalns42 DAF 33% 100% n/a 0% 0%

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