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Internet Radicalization : Actual Threat Or Phantom Menace?

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Internet Radicalization : Actual Threat Or Phantom Menace? Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2012-09 Internet Radicalization : Actual Threat or Phantom Menace? Mealer, Michael J. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/17416 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS INTERNET RADICALIZATION: ACTUAL THREAT OR PHANTOM MENACE? by Michael J. Mealer September 2012 Thesis Co-Advisors: Anders Strindberg Rodrigo Nieto-Gómez Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2012 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Internet Radicalization: Actual Threat or Phantom 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Menace? 6. AUTHOR(S) Michael J. Mealer 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number: ___________N/A________ 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Popular opinion expresses fear that accessing radical Islamic content and connecting with extremist networks through Internet functionalities causes radicalization and recruitment to commit terrorist acts. Anecdotal evidence has been used to support this assertion. The opinion assumes the Internet creates a new path that drives radicalization and recruitment. Whether computer-mediated communication (CMC) and Internet functionalities cause individuals to radicalize has not been thoroughly studied. This thesis explores whether a correlation can be found to attribute radicalization to radicalizing content and extremist networks accessed through CMC and Internet functionalities. A framework is used to evaluate vulnerabilities identified by the psychological, sociological and social-psychological elements of radicalization against the radicalization process, personal history, and the presence of radicalizing conventional communication and extremist contact. The analysis finds three cases that may support a conclusion that Internet radicalization is possible; however, the importance of root causes and individual vulnerabilities may have a greater impact. Since some circumstances involving CMC may increase the likelihood of radicalization, the fear of Internet radicalization may be reasonable, but the number of incidents validating that fear makes the threat unlikely, and appears more as a phantom menace than a real threat. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Internet radicalization, radicalization process, radicalization 15. NUMBER OF causation, radicalization, jihad, jihadist, extremist, Islamic extremist, globalization, PAGES causation, correlations, vulnerability, computer-mediated communication, CMC, 109 conventional communication, root causes, recruitment, Internet recruitment and 16. PRICE CODE radicalization 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited INTERNET RADICALIZATION: ACTUAL THREAT OR PHANTOM MENACE? Michael J. Mealer Commander, Chicago Police Department B.A. North Park University, 1982 B.S. North Park University, 1982 J. D., Loyola University of Chicago, School of Law, 1989 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (HOMELAND SECURITY AND DEFENSE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2012 Author: Michael J. Mealer Approved by: Anders Strindberg, PhD Thesis Co-Advisor Rodrigo Nieto-Gómez, PhD Thesis Co-Advisor Daniel Moran, Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Popular opinion expresses fear that accessing radical Islamic content and connecting with extremist networks through Internet functionalities causes radicalization and recruitment to commit terrorist acts. Anecdotal evidence has been used to support this assertion. The opinion assumes the Internet creates a new path that drives radicalization and recruitment. Whether computer-mediated communication (CMC) and Internet functionalities cause individuals to radicalize has not been thoroughly studied. This thesis explores whether a correlation can be found to attribute radicalization to radicalizing content and extremist networks accessed through CMC and Internet functionalities. A framework is used to evaluate vulnerabilities identified by the psychological, sociological and social-psychological elements of radicalization against the radicalization process, personal history, and the presence of radicalizing conventional communication and extremist contact. The analysis finds three cases that may support a conclusion that Internet radicalization is possible; however, the importance of root causes and individual vulnerabilities may have a greater impact. Since some circumstances involving CMC may increase the likelihood of radicalization, the fear of Internet radicalization may be reasonable, but the number of incidents validating that fear makes the threat unlikely, and appears more as a phantom menace than a real threat. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. OVERVIEW.....................................................................................................1 B. INTERNET PLUS RADICALIZATION ASSUMES “INTERNET RADICALIZATION”......................................................................................2 C. RESEARCH QUESTIONS.............................................................................4 II. LITERATURE REVIEW ...........................................................................................5 A. PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNET ON RADICALIZATION, RECRUITMENT AND TERRORISM....................5 B. RECRUITMENT AND RADICALIZATION ............................................13 C. RADICALIZATION CAUSES AND RADICALIZATION PROCESS...14 1. Radicalization Causation...................................................................15 2. Radicalization Process.......................................................................18 3. Self-Radicalization .............................................................................21 III. METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................25 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................25 B. CASE SELECTION.......................................................................................26 C. OUTCOME PROBLEM AND VARIABLE IDENTIFICATION ............28 1. Variables: Conventional Communication, Computer-Mediated Communication and Vulnerability...................................................28 2. Vulnerability Framework .................................................................29 D. ANALYSIS METHOD ..................................................................................29 IV. FINDINGS..................................................................................................................31 A. CASE REVIEW SUMMARY.......................................................................31 1. Hamaad Munshi.................................................................................32 2. Roshonara Choudhry ........................................................................32 3. Nicky Reilly.........................................................................................33 4. Colleen LaRose aka Jihad Jane:.......................................................34 5. Mohammed Hassan Khalid: .............................................................35 6. Abdul Basheer Abdul Kader.............................................................36 7. Arid Uka aka Abu Reyyan................................................................37 8. Betim Kaziu and Sulejah Hadzovic..................................................38 9. Mohamed Osman Mohamud ............................................................40 B. ANALYSIS .....................................................................................................41
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