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Houston Office Market Report

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Houston Office Market Report Research HOUSTON 4Q17 OFFICE MARKET 2017 Ends a Challenging Current Conditions Year; Positive Signs on • Leasing activity passed 2.0M SF during Q4 2017 Horizon • Positive absorption seen for first time since 2015; YE The Houston office market continued to struggle during the fourth quarter 2017 absorption remains negative overall of 2017. Although vacancy rates ticked down for the first time in three • The overall vacancy rate stood at 21.0% which represents years, they remained elevated at 21.0%. Fortunately, leasing activity a 120 basis point increase year-over-year. began to pick up during the fourth quarter, with more than 2.2 million • Sublease space down nearly 24% from 2016 peak square-feet of leasing taking place. Roughly 20% of that total involving take-up of sublease space. Construction activity within Houston continued to lag, as spec development has come to a standstill. With less than 2.0 million square feet of office under construction, and nearly 9.0 million Market Analysis square feet of sublease space still on the market, expected availability is therefore likely to remain near the 30% of previous quarters. $30 22% Although no natural disasters occurred during the fourth quarter, the $28 20% market continues to recover from both Harvey and oil and gas related issues. As an exampled, the recently announced delisting of Cobalt $26 18% Energy from the NYSE has given rise to investor worries that the worst is $24 16% not yet over for the Houston market. However the market in 2017 drew to $22 14% a close, with WTI pricing crossing the $60 per barrel threshold for the first time since 2015. If oil prices and rig counts continue to stabilize, they $20 12% 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 should counteract any potential investor worry regarding Houston’s market Average Asking Rent (Price/SF) Vacancy (%) health in the new year. Market Vacancy Decreases; Asking Rents Hold Steady Overall gross asking rents increased slightly to $28.31/SF. Class A asking rents continue to decline, but have begun to slow, with the fourth quarter seeing $33.50/SF as landlords continue to deal with vacancy near 24.0% 1.8 and availability rates north of 30.0%. The Class A vacancy rate of 23.5% 1.0 represents a 200 basis-point increase year-over-year but is down 40 basis 0.2 points from the previous quarter. Of the Class A submarkets tracked by -0.6 NKF, three-fifths have total vacancy rates greater than 20.0%, with -1.4 Greenspoint's 62.6%, or more than 3.2 millions square feet, the -2.2 market high. 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Expect to see flat asking rents during much of 2018. While published rents will continue to show slight increases, strike rents involving closed Market Summary transactions will continue to reflected declining rental rates as well as increases in landlord concessions. Strike rents are forecast to be nearly Current Prior Year Ago 12 Month 25.0% lower than published rents, with free rent concessions ranging Quarter Quarter Period Forecast between 6 and 15 months on a 10-year lease. Total Inventory (SF) 203 M 203 M 201 M é Vacancy Rate 21.0% 21.7% 19.8% é Sublease Market Net Absorption (SF) 1,399,972 -441,781 -689,004 é In terms of the ever-present sublease market, sublease space is expected to remain high, even as nearly 3.0 million square feet of space reverts to Average Asking Rent $28.31 $28.13 $28.11 = direct availability in 2018. The fourth quarter however, saw additional Under Construction 1,860,181 1,787,181 2,509,075 ê positive momentum in terms of total square footage of sublease space, as Deliveries 0 160,000 0 é a little more than 9.1 million square feet remains, down nearly 2.6 million square feet from the peak of 11.8 million square feet in third quarter 2016. Research HOUSTON 4Q17 OFFICE MARKET Leasing Activity $229 per square foot from Buchanan Street Partners and is positioned to Leasing activity had positive momentum in the fourth quarter of 2017, as spend several million dollars upgrading amenities and the overall tenants took down more than 2.2 million square feet. This amount appearance to capitalize on the strong Galleria submarket.. Likewise, represents a 22.0% increase from the third quarter but remains down Brookfield Asset Management purchased the Houston Center complex in nearly 1.0 million square feet from year-end 2016. The Central Business the CBD from JP Morgan for nearly $875.0 million in order to grow their District saw several larger transactions in the quarter, as Saudi Aramco, Class A portfolio and CBD footprint following the 4.2 million square-foot Porter and Hedges and Chamberlain Hrdlicka all executed leases for acquisition. more than 55,000 square feet each. The two largest lease transactions for the quarter involved subleases, with Saudi Aramco taking over Devon How will 2018 UnFold? Energy’s space within Two Allen Center and blending and extending their • Houston’s office market began to see positive signs on a quarterly lease at the Class A tower to beyond the sublease’s 2020 expiration. basis at the end of 2017. Will strong economic conditions and Additional large scale lease take ups were seen throughout a variety of consumer confidence allow tenants to safely look to sign new leases? Houston’s submarkets, further indicating a strengthening, albeit slowly, Will the slated Class A deliveries of Capitol Tower and other buildings Houston office market. McDermott International secured a lease for cause continued flight to quality? 187,000 square feet in West Houston during the fourth quarter, AT&T • Will tenants continue to strive to accommodate a growing Millennial leased nearly 76,000 square feet at the Southwest Corporate Center workforce in their space and leasing needs? Amenities will continue complex in Southwest Houston for call center/back office space, and a to be a deciding factor in a majority of leasing decisions. tenant took nearly 92,000 square feet in the Brookhollow office complex • WTI oil prices recently crossed the $60/bbl threshold. Will they in Northwest Houston during the fourth quarter. This tenant diversity in stabilize during 2018 and make $60/bbl the new norm? Will this terms of submarket location shows a growing confidence by companies hoped for stabilization help E&P companies comfortably ramp up that Houston’s office market has returned to a position of strength. expansion and hiring plans? • How will President Trump’s recently passed tax plan impact Houston Investment Sales on both a macro and micro level? Will both single family and The fourth quarter marked a continuation of the robust investment market commercial property owners be impacted and what will the economic within Houston, another indication that market confidence has trickle down be? rebounded. Nearly $6.0 billion of property traded hands in the fourth • NFK agrees with the Greater Houston Partnership’s long-term view quarter, with two separate transactions totaling nearly $2.5 billion. that Houston’s economy will continue remain diverse and strong as Investors focused on inner-loop Class A offerings with longer-term tenant our pillars (energy, chemicals, finance and trade) will have a rosters, and little upcoming leasing turn over. In late October, Elite Street vibrant 2018. Capital acquired 2100 West Loop South in the Galleria submarket for Lease/User Transactions Tenant Building Submarket Type Square Feet Saudi Aramco Two Allen Center CBD Sublease 200,000 Stewart Title BHP Billiton Tower Galleria/uptown Sublease 156,000 Porter and Hedges 1000 Main CBD Direct/Renewal 105,000 Chamberlain Hrdlicka Two Allen Center CBD Direct/Renewal 55,000 Toeppic & Associates 1201 Louisiana CBD Direct/New 24,000 Select Sales Transactions Building Submarket Sale Price Price/SF Square Feet Marathon Oil Tower Galleria/Uptown $175,000,000 $159 1,100,000 1301 McKinney CBD $259,300,000 $208 1,247,000 1980 Post Oak Blvd* Galleria/Uptown $1,200,000,000 $138 446,326 2100 West Loop South Galleria/Uptown $37,150,000 $229 162,336 Houston Center** CBD $615,000,000 $212 2,960,544 *Portfolio sale **Sources report transaction to close November 2017 2 Research HOUSTON 4Q17 OFFICE MARKET www.ngkf.com Submarket Statistics Total Under Total Qtr YTD Direct Sublet Average Total reflects Class A/B/C Inventory Construction Vacancy Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) CBD Total 38,651,224 778,344 22.8% -8,253 -992,505 $41.00 $23.12 $38.82 Class A 29,491,431 778,344 20.6% -53,711 -850,564 $43.92 $22.67 $41.23 Class B 8,481,052 0 31% 45,908 -128,598 $28.72 $25.74 $28.40 Allen Pkwy/Montrose Total 5,301,877 0 13.1% 169,528 97,738 $30.98 $21.09 $30.77 Class A 2,006,668 0 21.8% 126,080 44,189 $32.35 $24.33 $31.94 Class B 2,722,822 0 6.8% 24,948 42,641 $30.18 $17.50 $30.18 Bellaire/Medical Ctr Total 4,756,503 0 12% -26,878 -62,200 $21.88 $19.96 $22.18 Class A 1,370,869 0 14.8% -33,807 -14,954 $25.27 $19.98 $25.73 Class B 2,443,295 0 11.3% -2,405 -41,263 $21.47 $6.94 $21.47 Clear Lake/SE Hou Total 6,815,475 0 14.1% 418,981 307,025 $18.87 $21.73 $18.92 Class A 1,787,430 0 7.7% 27,296 22,641 $24.15 $22.55 $24.03 Class B 4,303,029 0 16.2% 387,989 311,907 $18.08 $20.11 $18.09 Conroe/Mont Co Total 923,500 0 16.1% 24,118 20,302 $19.71 - $19.71 Class A 206,000 0 53.9% - - - - - Class B 510,060 0 5.9% 24,118 17,717 $20.93 - $20.93 East/Pasadena/Baytown Total 4,463,631 0 15% 11,026 17,357 $20.64 $18.88 $20.61 Class A 107,706 0 30.3% -118 55,539 - $19.00 $19.00 Class B 2,977,938 0 16.5% 1,282 -44,728 $20.21 $18.73 $20.20 Energy Corridor Total 19,725,033 86,255
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