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Houston Office Marketbeat 1Q 2018

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Houston Office Marketbeat 1Q 2018 MARKETBEAT Houston, Texas Office Q1 2018 HOUSTON OFFICE Economy Metro Houston created 62,900 new jobs in 2017, up 36.7% from Economic Indicators the Texas Workforce Commission’s (TWC) original estimate of 12-Month Q1 17 Q1 18 46,000. TWC’s recent revisions to employment also included Forecast adjustments to prior years, and previously reported job gains in Houston Employment 3,005K 3,063K 2015 and 2016 now show as minor job losses. According to Houston Unemployment 5.7% 4.7% Moody’s Analytics, Houston’s employment over the next three U.S. Unemployment 4.7% 4.1% years could increase by 6.2%, or 189,300 new jobs. WTI crude oil prices are up nearly 8.5% since the beginning of the year, averaging $63/bbl in first quarter 2018 and the U.S. rig count has rebounded from its low of 404 in May 2016 to 993 in March 2018. Market Indicators (Overall, All Classes) Although the energy sector is seeing signs of recovery, layoffs 12-Month continued in the first quarter of 2018, indicating a slow upward Q1 17 Q1 18 Forecast movement in the energy industry, especially as it relates to real Availability Rate 27.9% 27.1% estate related decisions in some sectors. YTD Net Absorption (SF) -227,946 -1.3M Market Overview Under Construction (SF) 696,908 1.4M While we are seeing an increase in tenant activity, it hasn’t Average Asking Rent* $29.29 $29.44 translated into closed transactions. New leasing activity has continued its downward cycle since the second quarter 2017 and *Rental rates reflect gross asking $psf/year hasn’t been this low since year-end 2016. The Katy Freeway submarket had the highest volume in new leasing activity but Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent when renewals were included, the West Loop/Galleria submarket 4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE was the clear leader, contributing more than 800,000 square feet 1.5 $32 (sf) of renewal activity. Most surprising this quarter was the addition of more than 1.3 million square feet (msf) of new 1.0 $30 sublease listings. Since a number of sublease listings were leased or expired, the total available sublease space was 9.1 msf in the 0.5 $28 first quarter 2018, rising for the first time since fourth quarter 2016. 0.0 $26 Much of the sublease space is in prime buildings located in highly competitive submarkets, and is already built-out and furnished. -0.5 $24 Increasing sublease space continues to burden the office market but provides tenants options for prime space at low rates. As -1.0 $22 some energy companies continue to struggle financially, more reductions and consolidations are expected which could add even -1.5 $20 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 more sublease space to the market. Rising sublease space pushed the direct availability rate up 4.9% to a total availability of Net Absorption, MSF Asking Rent, $ PSF 27.1% in first quarter 2018. Overall absorption contracted for the eighth consecutive quarter, ending first quarter 2018 at negative Overall Availability 1.3 msf. As expected, asking gross rates—citywide, including all 30% classes—dropped 1.2% quarter over quarter, decreasing to $29.44 per square foot. 25% Historical Average = 23.9% Outlook Tenants are in a good position to negotiate better terms in a 20% market that is oversupplied with rising sublease space. Increasing supply and competitive sublease rates will keep pressure on landlords to lower rates and increase concessions. Although 15% Houston’s economy is improving, office-using employment will see little job growth this year. Without an increase in demand for office 10% space, it could take another three to five years to absorb the 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 surplus in available space. cushmanwakefield.com MARKETBEAT Houston, Texas Office Q1 2018 CURRENT QTR YTD YTD OVERALL OVERALL SUBLET DIRECT OVERALL UNDER INVENTORY OVERALL NET OVERALL NET LEASING AVERAGE AVERAGE SUBMARKET AVAILABLE AVAILABLE AVAILABILITY CNSTR (SF) ABSORPTION ABSORPTION ACTIVITY ASKING RENT ASKING RENT (SF) (SF) RATE (SF) (SF) (SF) (SF) (ALL CLASSES)* (CLASS A)* Central Business District 37,126,473 2,168,844 7,236,820 25.3% -36,315 -36,315 79,942 750,000 $40.11 $43.69 South Main 2,287,899 25,580 292,877 13.9% -6,027 -6,027 97,136 0 $25.63 $39.00 Richmond/Buffalo Speedway 10,236,403 144,718 1,762,791 18.6% -24,772 -24,772 93,031 0 $33.17 $37.67 Montrose 3,209,533 41,433 400,366 13.8% -95,747 -95,747 24,177 0 $34.02 $34.70 West Loop/Galleria 25,184,161 960,708 4,876,377 23.2% 190,535 190,535 218,930 0 $34.60 $39.63 SW Houston/Fort Bend County 10,197,001 374,688 1,276,288 16.2% -223,401 -223,401 50,613 0 $22.29 $27.71 Gulf Freeway/Pasadena 1,538,293 0 171,457 11.2% -17,405 -17,405 1,101 0 $21.73 $34.50 NASA/Clear Lake 5,132,260 37,654 1,262,922 25.3% 5,111 5,111 39,617 0 $19.56 $25.50 Katy Freeway 30,090,716 2,440,943 7,276,189 32.3% -793,440 -793,440 383,424 0 $30.12 $34.65 Westheimer/Gessner 15,424,434 1,441,666 3,506,328 32.1% -142,270 -142,270 146,154 0 $27.81 $36.00 San Felipe/Voss 5,090,941 97,755 1,126,618 24.1% -135,921 -135,921 42,239 0 $30.44 $37.16 Richmond/Fountainview 1,237,207 0 137,653 11.1% -21,946 -21,946 14,610 0 $16.51 N/A SW Freeway/Hillcroft 3,015,914 55,741 909,620 32.0% 33,716 33,716 58,254 0 $18.82 N/A Northwest 8,710,844 139,453 2,104,062 25.8% -51,087 -51,087 106,816 0 $21.18 $24.44 North Belt 11,174,355 717,395 6,055,692 60.6% 53,254 53,254 102,694 0 $20.64 $25.70 F.M. 1960 6,485,718 229,307 1,229,549 22.5% -34,915 -34,915 75,886 0 $21.38 $30.80 Woodlands/Conroe 7,602,713 204,958 1,247,943 19.1% -9,795 -9,795 82,094 681,630 $31.01 $34.07 East/Northeast 1,144,193 3,414 208,504 18.5% 21,723 21,723 33,106 0 $16.30 $20.00 SUBURBAN 147,762,585 6,915,413 33,845,236 27.6% -1,252,387 -1,252,387 1,569,882 681,630 $26.67 $33.43 HOUSTON TOTALS 184,889,058 9,084,257 41,082,056 27.1% -1,288,702 -1,288,702 1,649,824 1,431,630 $29.44 $36.89 *Rental rates reflect gross asking $psf/year Key Lease Transactions Q1 2018 PROPERTY SF TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET Post Oak Central 524,342 Apache Corporation Renewal* West Loop / Galleria 2800 Post Oak Boulevard 298,955 Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Renewal* West Loop / Galleria 9811 Katy Freeway 46,720 FairfieldNodal Sublease Katy Freeway *Renewals not included in leasing statistics Key Sales Transactions Q1 2018 PROPERTY SF SELLER/BUYER PRICE / $PSF SUBMARKET CBRE Global Investors Ltd / Baupost 5555 San Felipe (Marathon Oil Tower) 1,100,000 $175,000,000 / $159 West Loop / Galleria Group LLC Parmenter, LLC / Hertz Investment Brookhollow Central (3 buildings) 806,500 $70,500,000 / $87 Northwest Group Loop Central (3 buildings) 575,000 TIER REIT / Griffin Partners Undisclosed West Loop / Galleria Cushman & Wakefield For more information, contact: About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm with 45,000 employees in more than 70 countries helping 1330 Post Oak Boulevard Cammie Moise occupiers and investors optimize the value of their real estate. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate Suite 2700 Associate Director, Research services firms with revenue of $6 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant Houston, Texas 77056-3054 Tel: +1 713 877 1700 representation, and valuation & advisory. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter. cushmanwakefield.com [email protected] Copyright © 2018 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. MARKETBEAT Houston, Texas Office Q4 2017 HOUSTON OFFICE Economy Although 2017 will be remembered for the destruction left behind Economic Indicators 12-Month from Hurricane Harvey, it was a unique year which also included Q4 16 Q4 17 Forecast Super Bowl LI, a solar eclipse, snow and a World Series Houston Employment 3.0M 3.0M championship! While Houston’s economy took a hit from Hurricane Houston Unemployment 5.5% 4.5% Harvey, it created an opportunity to display the heart of Houston— U.S. Unemployment 4.7% 4.1% resiliency. Gradual job growth is returning after the hurricane’s temporary setback and 2017 could end with nearly 50,000 net new jobs. Economic activity has picked up and job growth is expected to Market Indicators (Overall, All Classes) continue into 2018. With oil prices above $60/bbl at the end of 2017, economic lethargy has flatlined, and it appears that optimism is 12-Month Q4 16 Q4 17 Forecast returning.
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