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Is Real Options Analysis Fit for Purpose in Supporting Climate Adaptation Planning and Decision-Making?
Delft University of Technology Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision-making? Kwakkel, Jan H. DOI 10.1002/wcc.638 Publication date 2020 Document Version Final published version Published in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change Citation (APA) Kwakkel, J. H. (2020). Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision-making? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(3), [e638]. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.638 Important note To cite this publication, please use the final published version (if applicable). Please check the document version above. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons. Takedown policy Please contact us and provide details if you believe this document breaches copyrights. We will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. This work is downloaded from Delft University of Technology. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to a maximum of 10. Received: 15 October 2019 Revised: 9 December 2019 Accepted: 14 January 2020 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.638 OPINION Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision-making? Jan H. Kwakkel Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Abstract Technology, Delft, The Netherlands Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool avail- able for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the Correspondence Jan H. -
ALTERNATIVE BETA MATTERS Quarterly Newsletter - Q3 2019
Alt Beta Newsletter 1 August 2019 ALTERNATIVE BETA MATTERS Quarterly Newsletter - Q3 2019 Introduction Welcome to CFM’s Alternative Beta Matters Quarterly Newsletter. Within this report we recap major developments in the Alternative Industry, together with a brief overview of Equity, Fixed Income/Credit, FX and Commodity markets as well as Trading Regulations and Data Science and Machine Learning news. All discussion is agnostic to particular approaches or techniques, and where alternative benchmark strategy results are presented, the exact methodology used is given. It also features our ‘CFM Talks To’ segment, an interview series in which we discuss topical issues with thought leaders from academia, the finance industry, and beyond. We have included an extended academic abstract from a paper published during the quarter, and one whitepaper. Our hope is that these publications, which convey our views on topics related to Alternative Beta that have arisen in our many discussions with clients, can be used as a reference for our readers, and can stimulate conversations on these topical issues. Contact details Call us +33 1 49 49 59 49 Email us [email protected] www.cfm.fr CFM Alternative Beta Matters CONTENTS 3 Quarterly review 10 Extended abstract Portfolio selection with active strategies: how long only constraints shape convictions 10 Other news 11 CFM Talks To Emanuel Derman, Columbia University 15 Whitepaper On Business Cycles… and when Trend Following works www.cfm.fr 02 CFM Alternative Beta Matters Index3 (2.8% over the quarter) registered similar Quarterly review performance. The one year rolling average absolute correlation between Quantitative overview of all futures contracts, often taken as an indicator of CTAs’ ability to diversify, fell during Q2, and reached close to 16% key developments in Q2 at the end of June. -
Micro-Foundations for Innovation Policy WRR Verkenningen 18 - 3 07-04-2008 13:08 Pagina 2
WRR Verkenningen 18 - 3 07-04-2008 13:08 Pagina 1 Micro-foundations for Innovation Policy WRR Verkenningen 18 - 3 07-04-2008 13:08 Pagina 2 The series ‘Verkenningen’ comprises studies commissioned by the wrr that are deemed to be of such quality and importance that their publication is desirable. Responsibility for the contents and views expressed therein remains that of the authors. Scientific Council for Government Policy (wrr) Lange Vijverberg 4-5 P.O. Box 20004 2500 EA The Haque Tel. + 31 70 356 46 00 Fax+ 31 70 356 46 85 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.wrr.nl WRR Verkenningen 18 - 3 07-04-2008 13:08 Pagina 3 SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY Micro-foundations for Innovation Policy B. Nooteboom and E. Stam (eds.) Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam 2008 WRR Verkenningen 18 - 3 07-04-2008 13:08 Pagina 4 Front cover illustration: Wassily Kandinsky, Offenes Grün (1923), Roethel t. 11 n0. 704, p. 658 Cover design: Studio Daniëls, Den Haag Layout: Het Steen Typografie, Maarssen isbn 978 90 5356 582 7 nur 741 / 754 © wrr / Amsterdam University Press, The Hague / Amsterdam 2008 All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmit- ted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the written permission of both the copyright owner and the author of the book. WRR Verkenningen 18 - 3 07-04-2008 13:08 Pagina 5 contents contents Preface 11 Executive -
Technology, Development and Economic Crisis: the Schumpeterian Legacy
CIMR Research Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 23 Technology, development and economic crisis: the Schumpeterian legacy by Rinaldo Evangelista University of Camerino Piazza Cavour, 19/F, 62032 Camerino (IT) +39-0737-403074 [email protected] June 2015 ISSN 2052-062X Abstract This contribution aims at highlighting the complex, non-linear and potentially contradictory nature of the relationships between technological progress, economic growth and social development, in particular within the context of market based economies. The main (provocative) argument put forward in the paper is that the recent neo-Schumpeterian literature, while providing fundamental contributions to our understanding of innovation, has contributed to the rising of a positivistic reading of the relationship between technology, economy and society, with technology being able to guaranty strong economic growth and (implicitly) social welfare. This is confirmed by the fact that, contrary to other influential heterodox economic schools and Schumpeter himself, in the recent neo- Schumpeterian literature technology is only rarely associated to macroeconomic market failures such as systemic crises, structural unemployment, and the growth of social and economic inequalities. It is also argued that the emergence of a “positivistic bias” in the neo-Schumpeterian literature has been associated to the dominance of a supply-side and micro-based view of the technology-economy relationships. Key words: Technology, Innovation, Schumpeter, Development, Crisis JEL codes: B52, O00, O30. 2 1. Introduction There is no doubt that the last economic crisis, with its depth, extension and length, could have, at least in principle, the potentiality of shaking at the fundamentals the dominant neo-liberal economic thinking and policy framework. -
Heterodox Economics Newsletter Issue 248 — June 10, 2019 — Web1 — Pdf2 — Heterodox Economics Directory3
Heterodox Economics Newsletter Issue 248 | June 10, 2019 | web1 | pdf2 | Heterodox Economics Directory3 Pinning down the nature of heterodox economics and suggesting appropriate definitions of this field of study is both, a general concern of the heterodox research community and a practical necessity for advancing a coherent research agenda. An interesting recent contribution to this discussion can be found here4 , which emphasizes, among other things, that "it is important to have a positive definition of heterodox economics to distinguish the field from other social sciences, as well as from the mainstream of the field.” This argument reminds me that it was exactly this concern that motivated me - many years ago, when I started editing this Newsletter - to change the definition given on our webpage from a 'negative' one, which focused on differences to mainstream approaches, to a 'positive' version, which puts emphasis on common conceptual building blocks across different heterodox traditions (see here5 & scroll down a little). In my view, such a positive definition does not only allow to carve out commonalities between different heterodox traditions as well as to provide a more reasoned account on the differences to mainstream economics, but also comes with greater conceptual clarity that makes heterodox economics a more attractive contributor to other sub-fields in social research, like development studies, economic sociology or political economy (as already emphasized here6 ). Having said all that, I wanted to urge you to inspect this week's -
The Worst Innovation Mercantilist Policies of 2015
The Worst Innovation Mercantilist Policies of 2015 BY NIGEL CORY | JANUARY 2016 Innovation is the central driver of growth. As a result, an increasing Countries that number of countries are seeking to become innovation leaders. use “innovation Unfortunately, as the global race for innovation leadership intensifies, mercantilist” policies think that prosperity many countries choose policies grounded in “innovation mercantilism”: a occurs by using strategy that seeks prosperity through the use of protectionist and trade- protectionist and trade distorting policies to expand domestic technology production. These distortionary policies policies often have misguided and short-sighted “beggar-thy-neighbor” to expand domestic production and aims of replacing imports with domestic production or unfairly promoting exports of high-tech exports. Accordingly, the global economic system has become increasingly goods and services. distorted over the last decade as more and more nations adopt innovation mercantilist policies to support domestic firms, including forced local production, forced technology transfer, and intellectual property theft. These innovation mercantilist practices do not just damage other economies; they damage the entire global innovation system, leading to less overall innovation and productivity growth. Moreover, they often do not even help the countries embracing the practices, particularly over the long run; instead, mercantilist policies lead them to neglect the greater opportunity to spur growth by raising the productivity of all sectors, not just a few high- tech ones. This third annual report documents what the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) believes to be the 10 worst innovation mercantilist practices proposed, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | JANUARY 2016 PAGE 1 drafted, or implemented in 2015. -
Engineering Token Economy with System Modeling
Engineering Token Economy with System Modeling Zixuan Zhang Acknowledgment This thesis will not be possible without the advice and guidance from Dr Michael Zargham, founder of BlockScience and Penn PhD alumnus in Network Science and Dr Victor Preciado, Raj and Neera Singh Professor in Network and Data Sciences. Abstract Cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks have attracted tremendous attention from their volatile price movements and the promise of decentralization. However, most projects run on business narratives with no way to test and verify their assumptions and promises about the future. The complex nature of system dynamics within networked economies has rendered it difficult to reason about the growth and evolution of these networks. This paper drew concepts from differential games, classical control engineering, and stochastic dynamical system to come up with a framework and example to model, simulate, and engineer networked token economies. A model on a generalized token economy is proposed where miners provide service to a platform in exchange for a cryptocurrency and users consume service from the platform. Simulations of this model allow us to observe outcomes of complex dynamics and reason about the evolution of the system. Speculative price movements and engineered block rewards were then experimented to observe their impact on system dynamics and network-level goals. The model presented is necessarily limited so we conclude by exploring those limitations and outlining future research directions. Table of Content Introduction -
Economics Paper 15: Innovation and Research Strategy for Growth
BIS ECONOMICS PAPER NO. 15 Innovation and Research Strategy for Growth DECEMBER 2011 BIS ECONOMICS PAPER NO. 15 Innovation and Research Strategy for Growth DECEMBER 2011 Table of contents Acknowledgements v Table of contents i List of tables and figures vi Foreword ix Overview and policy implications 1 Rethinking innovation 1 Rethinking the policy approach 4 1. Innovation as a Key Driver of Economic Growth 7 The central role of innovation in growth theory 8 The Schumpeterian approach 8 Neoclassical exogeneous growth models 8 Neoclassical endogeneous growth models 9 The evolutionary approach 10 Innovative activities as a source of business productivity growth 10 Data sources and model 10 Key findings 12 The multi-dimensional nature of innovative activities 12 NESTA’s Innovation Index and surveys 13 Case studies 16 Innovation as a source of economic growth 17 Growth accounting 17 Research and Development in econometric studies 20 Measurement issues 21 Conclusion 21 2. How Innovation Happens 23 Changing views of innovation 24 From linear to complex models of innovation 24 Innovation research outcomes 25 Basic components of the innovation system 28 Institutional structures 29 Administrative and regulatory frameworks 29 Education and R & D capabilities 29 Physical and knowledge infrastructures 30 Modes of innovation 30 Radical and incremental innovation 30 User-led innovation 31 i Innovation and Research Strategy for Growth The UK innovation system 32 Salient UK features 33 The global innovation landscape 38 Comparisons with leading innovation systems 40 Global competition and collaboration 43 The emergence of new scientific hubs 43 Capturing value in global chains 43 Global partnerships 45 Sourcing knowledge 48 Towards a framework for policy 51 Market failures 51 System failures 52 Conclusion 53 3. -
Agricultural Production Economics Lecture Notes Pdf
Agricultural Production Economics Lecture Notes Pdf andInfested discernible. and stung Tectonic Austen Judd hydrogenating sometimes her gaugings hunky voiceany mesophyte or abominates educates adown. purulently. Rodge bolshevises her twists jeopardously, strip-mined Most resources will almost universal lack of production economics lecture notes ppt and taking irrigation systems that of satisfaction derived from volcanic ash, you back thousands of land India too late assignments may sometimes leads to be sacrificed so far more intuitive: chemical fertilizers or depletion continues, but then too. Topics students to pay for print copies are believed to provide leadership. Bfit is agricultural production economics lecture notes pdf download. Marginal productivity eventually declines with or feed. Mediterranean agriculture involves the rearing of animals and opportunity of crops in more rugged, Mediterranean terrain. Now the farmer has to decide how much of land array to use clean each product. Timber harvesting with fluctuating prices. Amcat certification in this property means that more productive allocation is called as with their disposal. It involves numerous significant responsibilities, i produce other also increased production process section can be made by having global shortagesalso responsible. The assembly of a scattered and haphazard output of yet of various types and qualities is inevitably expensive. Are unlimited of fuel efficient allocation essential topics students need though help your. Given resources held fixed. The average cost is being replaced product, this role to households and agricultural production economics lecture notes pdf free. Agricultural research review press again to such as well as populations and techniques car washes are clung to agricultural production economics lecture notes pdf for abilene feedlot. -
Ninth Annual Searle Center/USPTO Conference on Innovation Economics Thursday, June 23, 2016 — Friday, June 24, 2016
Ninth Annual Searle Center/USPTO Conference on Innovation Economics Thursday, June 23, 2016 — Friday, June 24, 2016 Northwestern University School of Law Wieboldt Hall #147 340 E. Superior Street, Chicago, IL, 60611 This conference is organized by Daniel F. Spulber with the help of Pere Arqué-Castells and Justus Baron Thursday, June 23 9:00 a.m. Registration Check-In (1st Floor of Wieboldt Hall) Continental Breakfast (Wieboldt Hall #150) 10:00 Welcome and Introduction to the Conference (Wieboldt Hall #147) Matthew L. Spitzer, Howard and Elizabeth Chapman Professor and Director, Searle Center on Law, Regulation, and Economic Growth at Northwestern University Pritzker School of Law Daniel F. Spulber, Elinor Hobbs Distinguished Professor of International Business, Kellogg School of Management and Research Director, Searle Center on Law, Regulation, and Economic Growth Alan C. Marco, Chief Economist, United States Patent and Trademark Office 10:00-11:30 Session One—Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Wieboldt Hall #147) Session Chair: George Bittlingmayer, University of Kansas School of Business Prominent Investor Influence on Startup CEO Replacement and Performance Annamaria Conti, Scheller College of Business Georgia Institute of Technology* Stuart J.H. Graham, Scheller College of Business Georgia Institute of Technology Discussant: Keke Sun, School of Management, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile and MIPP 1 Knowledge Creates Markets: The Influence of Entrepreneurial Support and Patent Rights on Academic Entrepreneurship Dirk Czarnitzki, KU Leuven, Dept. of Managerial Economics, Strategy; Innovation and Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Thorsten Doherr, University of Luxembourg; Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Katrin Hussinger, University of Luxembourg; Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW); KU Leuven, Dept. -
Heterodox Economics Newsletter Issue 202 — September 19, 2016 — Web1 — Pdf2 — Heterodox Economics Directory3
Heterodox Economics Newsletter Issue 202 | September 19, 2016 | web1 | pdf2 | Heterodox Economics Directory3 Out there, in the blogosphere, you can find a nice and polite exchange between Simon Wren-Lewis and Jo Michell on the relative merits and problems of mainstream and heterodox macroeconomic modelling (see here4 , here5 and here6 ). While they are raising a series of interesting and noteworthy points I was surprised to find that an even more inspiring read on this subject is provided by Paul Romer. Although Paul focuses solely on the mainstream and although I critized his superficial account on "mathiness" in the past ( here7 ), I think in his recent paper on The Trouble with Macroeconomics8 he gets a lot of things right and thereby underscores my past assertion that his views are endogenously evolving in the right direction (see here9 ). In his criticism he focuses on the role of calibration exercises in mainstream macroeco- nomic modelling shows why "calibration" often implies an obfuscated form of introducing unwarranted assumptions. Additionally, he correctly identifies disciplinary groupthink as a main source of the uncritical acceptance of these practices and chastises the related tendency to use exogenous shocks for incorporating otherwise unexplained developments (as in standard S/D-analysis, see here10 ). He also makes a series of interesting remarks in passing - e.g. that relations between individuals matter for aggregate outcomes or that the increasing variety of models in mainstream economics invites arbitrariness when it comes to judging their relative importance and relevance. "More recently, 'all models are false' seems to have become the universal hand-wave for dismissing any fact that does not conform to the model that is the current favorite." (Romer 2016, p. -
Understanding and Maximizing America's Evolutionary Economy
UNDERSTANDING AND MAXIMIZING AMERICA’S EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMY ITIF The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation DR. ROBERT D. ATKINSON i UNDERSTANDING AND MAXIMIZING AMERICA’S EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMY DR. ROBERT D. ATKINSON OCTOBER 2014 DR. ROBERT D. ATKINSON ITIF The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation In the conventional view, the U.S. economy is a static entity, changing principally only in size (growing in normal times and contracting during recessions). But in reality, our economy is a constantly evolving complex ecosystem. The U.S. economy of 2014 is different, not just larger, than the economy of 2013. Understanding that we are dealing with an evolutionary rather than static economy has significant implications for the conceptu- alization of both economics and economic policy. Unfortunately, the two major economic doctrines that guide U.S. policymakers’ thinking—neoclassical economics and neo-Keynesian economics—are rooted in overly simplistic models of how the economy works and therefore generate flawed policy solutions. Because these doctrines emphasize the “economy as machine” model, policymakers have developed a mechanical view of policy; if they pull a lever (e.g., implement a regulation, program, or tax policy), they will get an expected result. In actuality, economies are complex evolutionary systems, which means en- abling and ensuring robust rates of evolution requires much more than the standard menu of favored options blessed by the prevailing doctrines: limiting government (for conservatives), protecting worker and “consumer” welfare (for liberals), and smoothing business cycles (for both). As economies evolve, so too do doctrines Any new economic and governing systems. After WWII when the framework for America’s United States was shifting from what Michael “fourth republic” needs Lind calls the second republic (the post-Civil War governance system) to the third republic to be grounded in an (the post-New-Deal, Great Society governance evolutionary understanding.