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Scarica Il File Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna SCUOLA di SCIENZE POLITICHE Sede di Forlì Corso di Laurea in Scienze Internazionali e Diplomatiche (LM-52) TESI DI LAUREA in Studi Strategici “National Cyber Approach: analisi dell'ecosistema difensivo nazionale rapportato alle minacce cibernetiche". Il caso di Estonia e Israele CANDIDATO RELATORE Matteo Gramaglia Prof. Filippo Andreatta CORRELATORE Prof. Gian Piero Siroli Anno Accademico 2012/2013 Sessione III 1 2 A mio padre, ai miei padri. ﻳﺩ ﻭﺣﺩﻫﺎ ﻣﺎ ﺑﺗﺻﻔﻕ. 3 Ringraziamenti Vorrei ringraziare tutti coloro che hanno reso possibile questo mio elaborato di tesi. Innanzitutto il mio relatore Filippo Andreatta, entusiasta sostenitore del progetto, e il correlatore Gian Piero Siroli, mentore e amico. Inoltre, vorrei ringraziare l’International Centre for Defense Studies di Tallinn, l’Institute for National Security Studies e il Yuval Ne’eman Workshop di Tel Aviv, per avermi concesso l’opportunità di approfondire le tematiche del mio elaborato presso le loro sedi. In particolare, uno speciale ringraziamento va a di Emmet Thouy e Piret Pernik, fondamentali nell’aiutarmi a carpire le dinamiche estoni, Gabi Siboni, Daniel Cohen, Lior Tabanski e Isaac Ben-Israel, miei riferimenti in Israele. Vorrei poi poter dare un personale ringraziamento a tutti coloro che mi hanno concesso delle interviste in questi mesi: tra gli altri Stefano Mele, Sandro Bologna, Giampiero Giacomello, Mihkel Tammet, Rain Ottis, Patrik Maldre, Kristjan Prikk, Kadri Kaska, Toomas Viira, Priit Laaniste, Siim Alatalu, Nir Tordjman, Ram Levi, Cameron Brown, Meir Elran, Gil Baram e l’indimenticabile Martin Van Creveld. Vorrei inoltre menzionare UNIDIR, Cyber Tech, Isodarco, AIIC, IPRED, DiploHack, per avermi dato la possibilità di prendere parte ad eventi estremamente rilevanti per la costruzione della mia tesi. Altresì, vorrei ringraziare l’Università di Bologna e il Ser.In.Ar. per il sostegno finanziario, necessario a intraprendere le mie ricerche. Vorrei infine inevitabilmente consegnare il ringraziamento principale alla mia famiglia per il sostegno e l’affetto. E a Roberta, pazientissima compagna di viaggio. 4 INDICE INTRODUZIONE .................................................................................................................... 9 1. LA CONNOTAZIONE DEL CYBER -SPAZIO E GLI ATTORI PRINCIPALI ....................................... 13 1.1 Cos’è il cyber-spazio? L’evoluzione delle tecnologie della comunicazione .................. 15 1.1.1 La genesi ............................................................................................................................. 16 1.1.2 Da ARPANET a Internet ....................................................................................................... 18 1.1.3 I l Cyber-space del Nuovo Millennio ...................................................................................... 24 1.1.4 Riflessioni ............................................................................................................................. 25 1.2 CYBER-SPACE: una definizione operativa .................................................................. 27 1.2.1 L’origine del termine ............................................................................................................. 28 1.2.2 Una descrizione complessa ................................................................................................. 30 1.2.3 IL MODELLO OPERATIVO DI CLARK ................................................................................. 31 1.2.4 La mappatura del ciberspazio e conclusioni ......................................................................... 33 1.3 Gli attori del cyber spazio ............................................................................................. 34 1.4 I l ruolo dello Stato nel cyber-spazio e i suoi limiti d’azione ........................................... 39 1.4.1 Offesa/difesa e controllo/libera circolazione .......................................................................... 41 1.5 Il Cyber-Power ............................................................................................................. 46 1.5.1.Quali sono gli attori maggiormente interessati ad acquisire cyber-power? ................................ 50 1.6 Conflitto o cooperazione nel cyber-spazio? .................................................................. 55 2. LO SCENARIO CONFLITTUALE NEL CYBER -SPAZIO : IS CYBER -WARFARE REAL ?................ 61 2.1 Dibattito sull’esistenza della cyber-warfare. Confronto con la dottrina militare classic a .......... 62 2.1.1 Sun-Tzu e la cyber-warfare ................................................................................................... 68 2.1.2 Distinzione da Information warfar e ....................................................................................... 72 2.1.3 Distinzione da cyber-terrorism ............................................................................................. 73 2.2 Quali sono le caratteristiche del quinto dominio militare ............................................... 73 2.2.1 Confronto con gli altri domini bellici ....................................................................................... 80 5 2.3 Vulnerabilità cibernetiche ............................................................................................. 85 2.3.1 I livelli di vulnerabilità ............................................................................................................ 85 2.3.2 Vulnerabilità nei domini militari e civili ................................................................................... 92 2.4 Cyber-weapons , operations and attacks ..................................................................... 95 2.4.1 Attacco cibernetico ................................................................................................................ 96 2.4.2 Cyber-weapons ..................................................................................................................... 98 2.4.3 Operazioni cibernetiche ...................................................................................................... 102 2.5 Esempi storici di cyber-attacchi .................................................................................. 103 3. LA NATIONAL CYBER -SECURITY E L ’ECOSISTEMA DIFENSIVO ............................................ 114 3.1 Lo Stato e la difesa del cyberspazio: sicurezza o resilienza? ..................................... 115 3.1.1 Resilienza ........................................................................................................................... 118 3.1.2 Caratteristiche essenziali per incrementare la ‘readiness’ ................................................... 120 3.2 Attori ........................................................................................................................... 121 3.2.1 Esecutivo ............................................................................................................................ 122 3.2.2 Corpi legislativi .................................................................................................................... 123 3.2.3 Forze Armate ...................................................................................................................... 124 3.2.4 Settore privato .................................................................................................................... 126 3.2.5 L’accademia e il settore della ricerca .................................................................................. 127 3.3 I punti critici della difesa ............................................................................................. 127 3.3.1 La protezione delle infrastrutture critiche ............................................................................. 129 3.3.2 La partnership tra settore pubblico e privato ....................................................................... 133 3.3.3 La cooperazione internazionale .......................................................................................... 135 3.4 I modelli adottati. Analisi comparata delle Strategie Nazionali .................................... 136 3.5 Il modello (eco)sistemico di difesa ............................................................................. 145 4. E-STONIA ............................................................................................................................... 150 4.1 Come Estonia è diventata E-stonia ........................................................................................ 150 4.1.1 Dipendendenza e vulnerabilità ............................................................................................ 155 4.2 L’attacco del 2007. Le ragioni e le conseguenze ........................................................ 154 4.2.1 Rilevanza ............................................................................................................................ 156 6 4.2.2 Il background politico .......................................................................................................... 157 4.2.3 L’Attacco sui generis ........................................................................................................... 158 4.2.4 La difesa ............................................................................................................................ 162 4.2.5 Conseguenze dell’attacco ..................................................................................................
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