Crimea After the Georgian Crisis
Crimea after the Georgian Crisis Crimea After the Georgian Crisis Following the Georgian Crisis, there was frequent speculation in the international media Crimea theCrisis Georgian after about the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea as the next likely target of Russian military intervention. Logic suggests that Crimea, the only region in Ukraine with an ethnic Russian JAKOB HEDENSKOG majority, with its historical links to Russia and contested affiliation to Ukraine, and with its Hero City Sevastopol (the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet), would be an easy target for the Kremlin’s neo-imperialist policy. This report aims to compare the situation around Crimea with that regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which led to the Georgian Crisis. The main objective is to identify similarities and differences concerning both the situation on the ground and Russia’s policy towards the regions, in order to determine whether a military scenario for Crimea is impossible, Jakob Hedenskog possible or even likely. For a study (in Swedish) on the Georgian Crisis and its consequences, see Larsson, Robert L., et al. Det kaukasiska lackmustestet: Konsekvenser och lärdomar av det rysk-georgiska kriget i augusti 2008, FOI-R--2563--SE, september 2008. Front cover photo: The chief of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Chief of the Ukrainian Marine jointly celebrate the 60th Anniversary of Victory Day, 9 May 2005, © Jakob Hedenskog (2005) FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society.
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