Documentation

Table of contents

4

Philipp Albers, Cornelius Reiber: Editorial 6

Lutz Hachmeister: Introduction 8

Holm Friebe: Future Biases 12

Kevin Kelly: Current Technologies of Disruption 22

Dan Gardner: Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight 32

Kathrin Passig: I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics 4 Philipp Albers, Cornelius Reiber Editorial Philipp Albers, Cornelius Reiber Editorial 5

Editorial

The development, interdependence the Institute for Media and Commu- and “black swans”? What are the While these changes of the next 20 and ever-increasing complexity of nications Policy (IfM), the think tank blind spots in the forecast of future years might make the changes of the media and technologies has reached and design agency Zentrale Intelli- media and tech developments? last 20 years seem relatively small, such a level that one comparison genz Agentur (ZIA), and the Share- the products that will really change seems inevitable: natural evolution. ground unit of Deutsche Telekom. CCF13 tackled “Future us are not even invented yet. New technologies emerge from old Biases”, exploring the ones, computer chips auto-design the Each year, CCF focuses on a specif- Dan Gardner highlighted and illus- next generation of computer chips, ic topic, invites 4-5 German and in- scope and validity of pro- trated the importance of cognitive and self-replicating robots won’t be ternational speakers and an expert gnostics in the field of biases in the prediction business. The science-fiction much longer. On top audience of about eighty scholars, emerging technologies. disillusonary findings: by and large of that, neuroscience, bioinformat- journalists and professionals from renowned experts are no better in ics, and genetic engineering erase the media industry. Can we know in which their future judgement than anybody the boundaries between the animate direction this weird crea- else. But there is hope: a critical and and the inanimate world, merging In 2012 there was a first trial run cautious mindset makes up for better nature and technology in ways never of the symposium with contribu- ture Technology will be results and even “superforecasters”. seen before. tions by cyberlaw and net neutrality heading and how it will expert Tim Wu, critic of the „Cali- interact with humans? In the final lecture, Kathrin Passig Describing technology in evolution- fornian Ideology“ Richard Barbrook, analyzed the argumentative struc- ary terms as an ecosystem is more philosopher and TV journalist Gert ture of utopian as well as dystopian than just a metaphor. Wired-co- Scobel and journalist and media In their introductory remarks the con- thinking about technology and what founder Kevin Kelly outlined the scholar Philipp Albers of Zentrale ference organizers Lutz Hachmeister the recurrence of this structure tells contours of this global super- Intelligenz Agentur. Their lectures (IfM) and Holm Friebe (ZIA) layed us about our ways of dealing with organism, its life-cycles, its growth have been documented in the Ger- out the main issues and guiding ques- technological change. There are, and its boundaries in his book What man trade journal of the media tions for the symposium. however, techniques of avoiding to Technology Wants. industry, Funkkorrespondenz (vol. think and reason in these patterns. 20/2013, May 17, 2013). Kevin Kelly in his opening keynote To address the consequences for us then painted the next transitions We live in the age of prognostics. Pre- humans living alongside and within CCF13, documented in this publi- and long-term developments in the dictions are necessary, even though this technological organism and the cation, tackled “Future Biases”, ex- evolution of media and technology we regularly fail at them. Knowing ways we think about its possible and ploring the scope and validity of in broad, bold strokes, calling for the about the inherent limits of prognos- impossible futures, Cologne Confer- prognostics in the field of emerging need of positive visions, predictions tics – our psychological, social, and ence Futures (CCF) was established technologies. Can we know in which and science fiction in an ever-faster technological future biases – might as an annual symposium on media direction this weird creature Tech- changing technological world. Cloud not make us more accurate prophets, evolution in 2013, taking place each nology will be heading and how it computing makes ownership less rel- but helps us to fail better at glimps- year at the beginning of October in will interact with humans? Is the evant and access crucial, artificial life ing the future. Cologne as part of the renowned TV singularity inevitable? Or are all pre- further changes the way we work and and media festival Cologne Confer- dictions doomed to fail in light of live, and the “Quantified Self” chang- Philipp Albers, Cornelius Reiber ence. CCF is the joint brainchild of increasing complexity, uncertainties es the way we observe our bodies. 6 Lutz Hachmeister Introduction Lutz Hachmeister Introduction 7

Dr. Lutz Hachmeister is the founding director of the Institute for Media and Communication Policy in Berlin. He is an associate professor for journalism at the University of Dortmund and president of the international film and Lutz Hachmeister television festival Cologne Conference.

Lutz Hachmeister is considered one of Germany’s most renowned documentary filmmakers and authored numerous non-fiction books on contemporary Introduction historical and media political topics.

Recently, a number of reports have approach to this complex demands en their place. But perhaps it is just exemplified and elaborated further been published regarding the boom the consideration of anthropologi- McLuhan’s already classic observa- during additional Cologne Confer- of new plans for architecturally elab- cal, evolutionary biological and geo- tion of the narcotic effect of techno- ences. Does the differentiated ex- orate libraries. One could think that strategic vectors. Every conventional logical disruptions that applies here. amination of “media evolution” and these were investments in long obso- technology critique, which already general technological dynamic make lete “paper museums” (Kathrin Pas- has run out of words over the con- Generously supported by the Deut- sense? How do biochemical evolu- sig) being done for prestige reasons – stant evocation of the “digital revolu- sche Telekom and the city of Cologne tion, cultural-technical development but that would be missing the point: tion”, will remain blind without any and in cooperation with the Zentrale and the evolution of reflexive con- Apparently, new spaces are being cre- concept of the co-evolutions of bio- Intelligenz-Agentur (ZIA), the Co- sciousness interact? Does “informa- ated which allow the coexistence of logical, psychophysical and techno- logne Conference Futures (CCF) has tion” – in the sense of the evaluations media artefacts and new information logical potentials. now been established. Holding their of Norbert Wiener, Claude Shannon technologies. And as it seems, these presentations inside the impres- and Warren Weaver from the 1940s – instances of social reproduction are In this sense, Martin Heidegger’s sive Stiftersaal of the Wallraf-Rich- become the transboundary substan- being accepted by the citizens who philosophical insight applies that the artz-Museum in Cologne, Kevin Kel- tial term of genetics, mathematics, precisely are not just “users”. From nature of technology itself is nothing ly, Dan Gardner and Kathrin Passig physics, linguistics and the human a sociological and humanistic per- technological. connected technological dynamics, sciences in general (which, inciden- spective it becomes clear that such the challenges of management in the tally, already Heidegger suspected)? initially contradictory processes can At the Cologne Conference 2012, information and communication in- Where does our ability to predict fu- only be analyzed – and possibly even we began posing the question about dustries, and the conventions of the ture technologies come from? Which well and reasonably predicted – with “media evolution” more decidedly psychophysical acquirement of new visions of the future presented by the McLuhan’s collidoscope and an ad- and systematically. Immanently techniques of consciousness. When media affect our attitude towards the vanced model of media evolution. connected to this is the work on Kevin Kelly, to pick just one example, conceivable futures? Is the “digitali- the definition of “media” following outlines the meaning of techniques zation” an intermediate technologi- In our days of the alleged “digital total the Canadian school of media the- of self-optimization, specifically the cal state (whereupon the poor met- interconnection and total communi- ory and, moreover, the question of feedback between a permanent data aphor of the “digital society” already cation” (Byung-Chul Han) it appears the comparability of developments stream and human bodies, it becomes misleads) and which transport and to be possible for a Boeing Triple in the information and communi- clear that a primarily technological transmission technologies exceed- Seven to disappear from all radar and cations technology, and the biologi- assessment of this phenomenon does ing it are imaginable? Which (geo-) satellite tracking – at least for some cal-physical evolutionary theory. At not suffice. Moreover, the growth political, military and economical time. However, in the course of such this opening colloquium, Philipp Al- of all hyperconnected, electronical dynamics, fractionations and resis- a mysterious incident one learns ’en bers, Gert Scobel, Tim Wu and Rich- risk technologies is accompanied by tances result from this? passant’ from cyber security experts ard Barbrook measured the transdis- the need for security and the wish that a passenger plane can be high- ciplinary field, considering aspects for institutionalized defense against What is sure is that 70 years ago, jacked – not just in theory – with a of global economics and the history undesirable political or terroristic excluding the few visionaries of IT smartphone (which in comparison to of mentalities.. The following event interventions. The management of and cybernetics, such questions and the control systems of original space in 2013, which is documented here, the telecommunication and IT com- fields still used to belong to the do- travelling is a mega computer). At the added the factor of predictability, a panies needs to thoroughly prepare mains of science fiction. By now, same time, geopolitical conflicts in field formerly called “futurology” – for and expect these ambivalences. the technological present has large- ’Old Europe’, falsely assumed settled think of names like Robert Jungk or It therefore requires parameters of ly voided the science fiction. In an after the collapse of the eastern block Karl Steinbruch in Germany or Alvin a societal prognosis exceeding mere unexpected way, the future is trans- in 1989, have gained new relevance. Toffler and Herman Kahn in the US. trend research. ferred into the present time. Wheth- It thereby shows that the TIMES This “futurology” had lost its charm er that leads to a stronger willing- markets (telecommunication, infor- over the ecological technology skep- For a further exploration of the ques- ness to adapt or new resistances or mation technology, media, entertain- ticism of the 1970s and 1980s and tions about technological and “me- whether this matter will be settled ment, digital security technologies), has withered away into “sociology dia evolution”, it would make sense transhumanistically, provides the as defined by T-Online at the begin- of technology” or “accompanying to follow the model of the “Alten- material for further predictions and ning of the third millennium, have a research” (Begleitforschung). Today, berg 16”, the group of international debates at the Cologne Conference. deeper connection than indicated by short-winded and often ideologi- evolutionary biologists, and devel- the plain market convergence and cally and economically grounded op a guiding catalogue of questions utilization context. An intellectual tech-conferences seem to haven tak- whose partial aspects can then be 8 Holm Friebe Future Biases Holm Friebe Future Biases 9

Holm Friebe, economist and journalist, is co-founder of Zentrale Intelligenz Holm Friebe Agentur in Berlin and a teaching professor for “Design Theory” at the Hochschule der Künste in Zurich and the Kunsthochschule Kassel.

He has authored best- and long-selling non-fiction books, among others Wir nennen es Arbeit – die Digitale Bohème oder intelligentes Leben jenseits der Festanstellung (together with Sascha Lobo, 2006) and Future Biases Die Stein-Strategie – Von der Kunst, nicht zu handeln (2013).

The following text is a transcript of a lecture held at the Cologne Conference Futures 2013 – the Annual Symposium on Media Evolution Cologne, October 2nd, 2013

The principal topic of Cologne Con- innovation inspires the next. There In 2002 the BBC, Discovery Channel with different rates of predictability. ference Futures is “Media Evolution”. is a mechanism of mutation (by sci- and some other TV stations teamed A concept, at first glance, pretty sim- entists and designers) and selection up with biologists, to start an experi- 1. Mechanical Systems ple and obvious: Media is evolving. (by the market). There are, as we ment. Can we predict the path of bio- Like the stellar system, mechani- We witness that everyday. But this can see from the evolution of, say, logical evolution after the extinction cal systems strictly obey the laws of idea implies at least two problems: electric shavers, bifurcation lines of mankind? What will the biosphere physics and therefore are pretty good First, in what capacity does the anal- where the genealogical tree branch- look like in 5, 100, 200 Million years? to predict – exactly, mathematically. ogy of biological evolution apply to es out. Some branches die off, oth- The result was the animated docu- technological progress? And what ers prosper. But does technological mentary series “The Future Is Wild”. Mechanical systems does it imply? Is it a mere metaphor? progress follow a specific trajectory, In 100 million years Antarctica will strictly obey the laws of Or is there really an evolutionary log- an autonomous path? “What does have shifted to the equator, sparking ic underlying the developement of technology want?” to quote Kevin an evolutionary push of new species: physics and therefore are the media system? Kelly. Is there really a “technium” the poggle, the last land-living mam- pretty good to predict – out there, an autonomous superor- mal, harvested by silver spiders; the exactly, mathematically. There is an evolution-like ganism that only needs humans to toraton, a giant tortoise that grows to progress in technology feed and nurture it? “By aligning 120 tons, etc. ourselves with the imperative of the In technological evolution Moores in the sense that one technium, we can be more prepared Is this scientific? Yes. It is science fic- Law – stating that in the course of thing leads to another, to steer it where we can and more tion in the literal sense, every crea- computing hardware’s development, aware of where we are going. By ture presented has an underlying the number of transistors on inte- one innovation inspires following what technology wants, plausible rationale. Will these crea- grated circuits per US-Dollar dou- the next. There is a we can be more ready to capture its tures come to life? Most probably bles approximately every two years mechanism of mutation full gifts.” writes Kelly, and it’s more not. Although we understand the un- – comes closest to an underlying C2a C2b than just a frivolous anthropomor- derlying forces – geological plate tec- mechanical trend. It charts a steady (by scientists and phizing of technology. tonics, climate change – evolutionary trajectory of exponential growth. designers) and selection processes always carry an element of Ray Kurzweil has traced it back well Second, can we predict the path of contingency that makes them impos- beyond microprocessors to the year (by the market). technological evolution? Are there sible to predict. 1900 and it holds true over five dif- UN recurring patterns we can detect and ferent specieces of computing – from Obviously, there is an evolution-like then apply for prognosis? Let’s go The same is true for technical prog- punchcards to transistors to inte- 4937 23 progress in technology in the sense back with this question to the evolu- ress and media evolution. They result grated circuits – a straight line. Still C1a that one thing leads to another, one tion of the biosphere: from the overlay of different systems we must not confuse it with a law of

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C1b 10 Holm Friebe Future Biases Holm Friebe Future Biases 11

physics. It is more of a self-fulfilling finance, you’re playing against God’s prophecy induced by corporate deci- creatures.“ And God’s creatures use Although we might be able to push Gartner’s Hype Cycle: sion-making processes. „their ephemeral opinions“ to val- ue assets. Moreover, most financial the borderline a little bit further into 2. Chaotic Systems models „fail to reflect the complex the future with smart algorithms and Peak of Chaotic or fractal systems, such as reality of the world around them.“ inflated the weather system, are character- On the other hand, social behaviour expectations ized by many bifurcations and a high becomes quite predictable – if you sheer computing power, we should be have enough data points. Humans, aware of the fundamental impossibility Chaotic or fractal statistically, behave quite coherently systems, such as the and can be tackled with smart algo- to overcome the threshholds and rithms. “Wunderkind” Nate Silver weather system, are Plateau of has proven that for the US-elections epistemological limits of human productivity characterized by many by correctly forecasting every state outcome using a proprietary statis- knowledge about the future. bifurcations and a high tical model. German forecasting in- feedback rate, resulting stitutes did not do that badly either, Slope of in non-linear dynamics. forecasting the surprising results enlightenment of the recent German election. Still, VISIBILITY They are easy to model even the best forecast by FORSA and simulate, but truly missed the exact result of the CDU and Die Grünen by 1.5 percent – a impossible to predict – Trough of relative deviation of 3.5 respectively disillusionment in the medium and 18 percent. Not nothing. long run. Technology Prognostic Borderline Trigger Some scientists like Dirk Helbing feedback rate, resulting in non-linear of ETH Zürich are optimistic that MATURITY dynamics. They are easy to model and they cannot only model and fore- simulate, but truly impossible to pre- cast socio-economical systems by dict – in the medium and long run. intelligent use of big data, but make A good example is climate change. them better controllable – Helbing over and over again. By understand- Our problem – to get the future right „Die Bürger der drahtlosen Zeit We rearrange the past in nitely is the one and only next big Determinists vs. Skepticism Although the models are very sophis- recently failed to raise 1 billion Euro ing the patterns of our biased think- – is strongly intertwined with our werden überall mit ihrem ’Emp- thing. Just one more thing. Mapping the ticated and IPCC-scientists pretend for his FutureICT-project “Living ing about the future – that is the problem to get the past right. The fänger’ herumgehen, der irgendwo, such a way that it neatly playing field of prognostics, there they know all about the human im- Earth Simulator”. However, there great hope – we might get better in name for this is hindsight bias. im Hut oder anderswo angebracht, fits the present, high- Hype Cycle are two extreme positions standing pact on global warming, the results seems to be an essential and funda- eliminating future biases and eventu- auf eine der Myriaden von Vibra- lighting predictions that On a collective level this overconfi- out, marking the outposts. In the left have recently been challenged by mental “prognostic borderline” for ally get a better grip on how the fu- Our problem – to get tionen eingestellt sein wird. Der Emp- dence bias of experts’ public opin- corner of “determinism” we see Ray the real climate curve that lies way what we can know or find out about ture, how technology and the media the future right – is fänger wird trotz seiner Kompliziert- nailed it and masking out ion – emphasized through the media Kurzweil, plotting Moore’s Law to- beneath the low estimate of 1990. A the future. John D. Barrow states it system might evolve. heit ein Wunder der Kleinmechanik the pink noise of erring feedback loop – leads to a recurring wards the future and predicting that typical example of “models behav- in his book Impossibility (1999). Al- strongly intertwined sein. Konzerte und Direktiven, ja alle forecasts. pattern of public over-enthusiasm by 2045 mankind will inevitably ing badly” – because reality is always though we might be able to push this Biases with our problem to get Kunstgenüsse und das Wissen der and public disappointment. Jackie gain immortality, just by the sheer more complex. borderline a little bit further into the Cognitive biases have for some de- the past right. Erde werden drahtlos übertragen Fenn, who charted it first for Gart- number of circuits in the world. In future with smart algorithms and cades now been been subject of ex- sein. Monarchen, Kanzler, Diplomat- Overconfidence ner Consulting, coined in the mid the other corner of “skepticism” 3. Socio-cultural Systems sheer computing power, we should tensive scientific research, mostly en, Bankiers, Beamte und Direktoren Next one is maybe the mother of 1990s the now iconic “hype cycle”. we have the fundamental skeptic It becomes worse once you insert hu- be aware of the fundamental impos- in the new discipline of behavioural Hindsight Bias werden ihre Geschäfte erledigen und all biases concerning future predic- It mirrors a damped oscillation until Nassim Nicholas Taleb who states: man beings and brains into the (feed- sibility to overcome the threshholds economics. Wikipedia lists over It addresses the simple truth that we ihre Unterschriften geben können, wo tions. The “overconfidence effect” both curves – the medial excitement whatever we might plan, in the end back-)loop, e.g. in financial markets. and epistemological limits of human 200 different biases, some familliar get smarter as we go along and can’t immer sie sind, sie werden eine legale is twofold in leading to prognostic and the actual distribution of new it is all in vain, because something knowledge about the future. The and overlapping, some mutually ex- imagine in retrospect how it felt to not Versammlung abhalten, wenn der eine errors. First, experts tend to overes- technologies – meet on the “plateau else will happen, a Black Swan will Social behaviour beco- more you know, the more you know clusive and contradictory. Daniel know how things eventually would auf der Spitze des Himalaya, der an- timate their prognostic qualities. “I of productivity.” The hype cycle en- cross our plans, some very unlikely mes quite predictable – you don’t know. We might be even Kahneman, Amos Tversky and Dan develop. After the cookie actually dere an einem Badeorte ist.“ feel lucky” is their default state of capsulates the truth that we overes- event with enormous impact such better off practicing a more humble Ariely are the pioneers in the field of crumbled in a certain way, we think, mind. Secondly, they overestimate timate the short-term impact of new as 9/11 or Lehman Brothers. Hence if you have enough data attitude toward the future. experimentally researching biases. it was always obvious it would do so. We might think: wow! This guy the impact of their special topic on technologies, but – second part of we should better not make any plans points. Humans, statisti- Their books have become bestsellers We rearrange the past in such a way is an amazing prognostic genius the overall developement of the fu- the equation, because we tend to be at all, and remain within a humble That brings me to the topic of this only recently and there are also pop- that it neatly fits the present, high- commanding visionary superpow- ture, because they are too deep into disappointed too easily – underesti- and fatalistic position of “Antifra- cally, behave quite cohe- years CCF: future biases. Our mis- ular adaptations currently on the lighting predictions that nailed it ers. But it might as well have been it and confuse it for the rest of the mate their long-term impact. “Don’t gility.” I am curious to see, where rently and can be tackled takes in predicting the future are not bestseller lists, such as Rolf Dobelli’s and masking out the pink noise of a statistically unremarkable lucky world. If you are, say, an expert on invest in a technology just because it in this field our experts, Kevin Kel- with smart algorithms. randomly distributed. They don’t The Art of Thinking Clearly (2013). erring forecasts. For example, if we punch that occurs every once in a social media marketing, you live in is being hyped or ignore a technology ly, Dan Gardner, and Kathrin Passig add up to a bell curve – as you would I will highlight only two biases that come accross a one hundred-year- while. Not unlike the chimpanzee your personal filter bubble together just because it is not living up to ear- position themselves. expect it of a rifleman shooting at a seem fundamental to me for our top- old vision of the cellphone like this with the typewriter that eventually with other experts on social media ly over-expectations.” Jackie Fenn „In physics you’re playing against target many times. Instead, they are ic. Dan Gardner is the expert in that by Robert Sloss on “the wireless cen- writes Romeo and Julia, or the bro- marketing, reading their articles, summarizes the message of the hype God, and He doesn’t change His laws oftentimes biased, meaning they are field and will surely supply much tury” from a book of 1910 edited by ken clock, that is right twice a day. going to the same conferences, reas- cycle. And this is maybe a good start- very often.” writes Emanuel Derman systematically wrong, because we deeper insights later on. journalist Arthur Brehmer called The suring yourself together with them ing point for dealing with future bi- in Models.Behaving.Badly. (2011). “In structurally make the same mistakes World in 100 Years. that social media marketing defi- ases and our conference day. 12 Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption 13

Kevin Kelly is Senior Maverick at Wired magazine. He co-founded Wired in Kevin Kelly 1993, and served as its Executive Editor from its inception until 1999. He is also editor and publisher of the Cool Tools website, which gets half a million unique visitors per month. From 1984-1990, Kelly was publisher and editor of the Whole Earth Review, a journal of unorthodox technical news.

He co-founded the ongoing Hackers Conference, and was involved with the Current launch of the WELL, a pioneering online service started in 1985. He authored the best-selling New Rules for the New Economy and the classic book on Technologies decentralized emergent systems, Out of Control. His latest book is What Technology Wants from 2010. Kelly’s writing has appeared in many national and international publications such as the New York Times, The Economist, of Disruption Time, Harpers, Science, GQ, and Esquire.

The following text is a transcript of a lecture held at the Cologne Conference Futures 2013 – the Annual Symposium on Media Evolution Cologne, October 2nd, 2013

I. “Developmental technology” what kind of a teenager you would the galaxies would go through. And And yet here it is. We have the impos- Let me just say right away that I am be. And I believe that a lot of the we have the computerisation and au- sible. Wikipedia: Here is an encyclo- on the side of Ray Kurzweil rather stuff that we’re seeing in technology tomation. That was a huge transition paedia, probably the best encyclopae- than Taleb in the sense that I think is more developmental rather than that just reformed things. Again, if dia we’ve ever had available for free, that the kind of events like 9/11 and evolutionary. So there are certain you were to visit many, many plan- that’s made by the fact that anybody Lehman Brothers will be forgot- stages that we go through in a soci- ets around the universe, you would can edit any article. That is impossi- ten in the long run. It didn’t real- ety, and as we go through them, we expect many of them to have gone ble. Everything about human nature ly change very much. I don’t agree don’t have much choice in terms of through the developmental stage of that sociologists have been telling us with Ray Kurzweil that it’s inevita- whether we’re going to be “electri- automation and computerisation. for a long time, would say: There’s no ble, but I do believe that the future fied” as a society, or whether we’re And so the question would be: Where way that this would work. So what is a little bit more deterministic than going to have agriculture. But we do else are we going? we’re learning is that we have to be- completely random. have some choices about how we use And I do think that there is some- lieve the impossible a lot easier. Let me give you an example. those. What kind of agricultural sys- thing very powerful about the idea of tem we have. a bias. For instance, if we were to send We have to believe the I do believe that the And so, what I want to try to do is to everybody here into a time-machine impossible a lot easier. future is a little bit go through some of the major transi- and send you back just twenty years tions in the past. into the past, and you tried to explain more deterministic than If we think about our cultures, ob- to your friends and family what we So what I’m going to try and talk completely random. viously there are some major transi- have right now, you would be saying about is that some of the thresholds tions such as agriculture, and I think things like, “We’ve got this one thing and some of the things I may suggest if we were to visit many, many plan- in our pocket, and by using it, I can may seem impossible. But remember There are in a way two kinds of bi- ets around the universe and come to not only talk to my friends, but I can about Wikipedia! Remember about ology. There’s evolutionary biology different civilisations, the stage of see every street and every city. It’s got Google Street View! Remember which we all understand, but there’s agriculture would be a common de- the latest stock quotes. It’s got news about all these things that we have! also developmental biology. So when velopment in many of those planets. in real time from around the world. I Sometimes, we have to release our you are born, as an egg, develop into It’s an obvious thing to do. can ask it questions and it can tell me ideas of what is possible in order to an embryo, you yourself have fol- Industrialisation is another kind of answers. It’s got an encyclopaedia…” accept them. lowed a very deterministic sequence threshold that we’ve gone through. It goes on and on. “And oh, by the of progress. You’ve gone through all We can think of more recent stages way, most of the stuff is for free.” Your II. Long-term developments the stages of being an infant, a tod- that have reorganised our society, friends twenty years ago would say, So let me do a quick introduction to dler, a child, an adolescent. You have such as electrification. That was a “That’s impossible. There’s no eco- some of the long-term, Ray-Kurz- no choice about whether you are a huge thing. That was a transition that nomic model in the world that would weil-version of transitions or thresh- teenager. You did have a choice about I think many civilisations throughout support that. You’re making that up!” olds that we’re coming up to. Kind 14 Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption 15

We had no need for science fiction until the moment when gins to work as a whole. I call that the every eighteen months. And by the “Global Super-organism”. There’s year 2040 or somewhere around the future would change within our lifetime. So the world not really a good name for it. But the what Ray Kurzweil says, it will be idea is as follows: Everybody in this equal to all the human brains on the that we died in was not the same as the world that we were planet. It will be equal to six billion born into. Then we needed science fiction to try and help us We’ll make a virtual humans: That’s the scale in which world that mirrors our we’re making this machine! I called it the “Global Super-organism” which understand what was going to happen. We need to predict own world. So there is means only that this system, like all because things are moving so fast. It’s not a luxury. a kind of a virtual New systems, has its own quirks, its own biases, its own agenda. It’s going to York City in a computer do things because it’s a system. And that is reflective of the that’s the nature of all systems, that actual city. they tend to repeat certain things that are inherent in the system itself. Independent of what other choices room is very smart, but there’s no one you make, systems have certain bias- person that could make, for example, es. This system, the Global Super-or- a laptop. In fact, even if everybody ganism, will have a certain bias. here was working together for years, we would be unable to make a laptop “Class 1 Energy” is this idea of a by ourselves, because this piece of Russian science fiction author that technology is made up of hundreds if you take a galactic view of civilisa- of other technologies. And each of tions, there are some civilisations who those requires hundreds of other have mastered all the energy on the technologies like the copper wire, planet. Second stage – “Class 2” – is the battery – this is really a network where they have mastered all the en- of many technologies. ergy in the star of a planet. And then If we take a step back to the network “Class 3” is where they’ve mastered all of all the technologies supporting the energy in the galaxy. We’re head- of the far future. And I think Lutz we all want to go to? We haven’t had The second one is artificial life. what history we have and we can use I think that if we found life on Mars “Mirror World” is the idea that each other, I call that the “Techn- ed eventually to try and have more Hachmeister is right, that it took that since the 1950s. And I think this That means many things. For ex- DNA to figure out how everybody is somewhere, the first thing we would we’ll make a virtual world that mir- ium”. We take it back even further, and more energy density and more many, many years for science fic- is a real problem and challenge for ample the kinds of artificial life that actually related, including everybody try to do is do a systematic survey rors our own world. So there is a kind we have this large system where and more sources of energy. That is a tion to be invented; we had no need us right now: We’re having trouble Craig Venter is working on: He’s who used to live in the past. of that planet to see everything else stage way far in the future, but I just for science fiction until the moment imagining a place that we want to go trying to make a synthetic cell from Thus, we can actually assemble a that was there. But we’ve given that We save everything Every planet will go wanted to mention it as a stage. when the future would change with- to in the future. And I think unless taking DNA, which they sequenced universal family tree and show that up on our own home planet. We’re basically. So you have through a stage in which in our lifetime. So the world that we can imagine it, we’re not going to from a computer, and then start it every single person on this planet, trying to do biology and ecosystem “Methuselarity” is longevi- we died in was not the same as the get there. Rather than being stymied from the bottom up, making an ar- alive and dead, is related in a certain management without even knowing complete “Memorex” of the entire system begins ty. Research steadily increases the world that we were born into. Then or prevented by the fact that we may tificial cell that they can then direct way. That’s a very powerful thing all the species. That is like trying to the entire culture that’s to work as a whole. lifespan of humans on average. If we needed science fiction to try and get it wrong, I think there is a tre- to do many different kinds of things. that helps medicine and changes do chemistry without knowing all research can increase the lifespan help us understand what was going mendous benefit in trying to -imag There’s a little bit more control over our understanding of culture. Again, the elements. Knowing all the spe- available and can be I call that the “Global of humans by one year per year, to happen. We need to predict be- ine a future that we want. So here a cell that you make from the begin- that’s another threshold, a coming cies on the planet is one of the stages searched and unified. Super-organism”. that is the same thing as immortal- cause things are moving so fast. It’s are some of the thresholds that I see ning. The kinds of things that Craig enabling technology. that any civilisation will go through ity. That’s sort of the goal: Can we not a luxury. We have to think ahead coming of a planetary system which Venter would like to do is to make at some point. increase the lifespan of the average because we’re moving so fast, be- I call “The Technium”. These are all bacteria that could for instance dis- The “All Species Inventory” is of a virtual New York City in a com- right now all the computers in the human by one year per year? Then cause we know that the world that planetary-scale stages that I think solve oil from oil spills or even per- something that I was involved in start- There’s the “Memorex”, which is puter that is reflective of the actual world, all the transistors, are con- you have something where you can we’re going to and the world that our any civilisation will go through. meate into a rock to extract the gold. ing, which was a campaign to identify this idea that eventually every song, city – there is a mirror of it that is nected together. It’s as if it was its live forever. That is another stage in children will live in, will be different There’s lots of things that these little and catalogue every living species on every book, everything that you do data-driven, that is kind of a data-re- own machine – one single machine. a far distance future, but it is some- from the world that we’re in right The first one is that we invent an tiny cells can do. And if you have con- this planet. To my horror, I discovered will be saved and catalogued togeth- flection. And that world is where you And by the way: The number of tran- thing that we are working towards. now. It has become a necessity to artificial intelligence. Think about trol over them by making them arti- years ago that we’ve only identified er. We save everything basically. So can do simulation. So if you have a sistors in that one machine, the num- look at things in the future. We may “HAL”: That’s the bad version of ficially, that again is a very powerful Mirror World, you can begin to sim- ber of transistors that are right now “Transhumanity” is the idea not be right, but we have no choice. it from Stanley Kubrick’s “2001: A threshold, a very powerful technolo- We can actually assemble We’ve only identified ulate: What happens if...? Or if we do connected together, is approximately that, like kind of a cyborg or Iron And so science fiction has failed us Space Odyssey”. They are not going gy, that we call an “enabling technol- a universal family tree five percent of the this that way, what happens? That the same as the number of neurons Man, we add technology to our- right now, because there is no posi- to happen over night. But eventual- ogy” because it enables other tech- is one of the advantages of having a you have in your head. The number selves. And we’re further along than tive view of the future. We have tons ly, we will have some kind of “smart- nologies. So these can all be thought and show that every living species on this Mirror World. The other one is that of links on all the webpages in the we think. Just take anybody who’s and tons of dystopian views how the ness” that we can purchase, that we of as coming enabling technologies. single person on this planet so far. you can record and you can begin to world is approximately the same as had a laser surgery on their eyes or a world will end: the collapse of every- can just buy and use. And that will Another planetary stage that we’ll analyse things. You can extract pat- the number of links to the synapses cochlear ear implant. We’ve already thing. But we don’t really have a sin- change lots of things, for many rea- go through is that we’ll eventually planet, alive and dead, is you have complete “Memorex” of the terns that you wouldn’t normally see. in your brain. So right now, world- passed the threshold where we’re gle positive view of a future that we sons that have been talked about. Not make a universal family tree. Every related in a certain way. entire culture that’s available and can So it is the idea that there is a data wide, we have a machine that’s about doing that. The question is, how all want to live in, right? I mean, we alone is the fact that the AI can help one of us here is related. Our relation be searched and unified. Think of it mirror for large, complex systems. as powerful as one human brain. But much are we going to do it? can make these utopian views that us make another AI. So that is com- goes way back. As we start to make it as a kind of unified universal library. your brain isn’t doubling in size every don’t seem believable, but where is a ing and will be very consequential common for everybody here to have five percent of the living species on We’re on our way to that. That again Every planet will go through a eighteen months. Think of Moore’s And then the last thing is “Singu- science fiction story of a world that when it happens. their full gene sequenced, we can use this planet so far. is enabling technology. stage in which the entire system be- law. So this global brain is doubling larity” which is Ray Kurzweil’s idea 16 Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption 17

the near future, and talk about some my email – that was on CompuServe track – in the beginning – movement. things that I think are going to be – you could only send email to other But let me tell you that anything you thresholds in the coming years. Not people on that network. The Inter- can possibly imagine that can be science fiction at all. Things that will net was the network of networks. It measured, somebody right now in be within your lifetime, within the brought all those networks together the world is tracking it. I know this lifetime of your business, and that and it made the Internet, and that was for a fact. We started this five years we need to think about right now. the huge thing. And the clouds are ago. There are now “Quantified Self” The following are twelve disrup- the same thing: If we can make one meetups around the world. There are tions that are coming. These are dis- cloud out of many clouds, that would probably 700 or so start-ups in this ruptions that are very similar to the be a really big deal. And that remains arena. And there are guys, extreme disruption we had with the PC. Or to be seen, whether we’re going to quantified-selfers, who are trying to the disruption we had with mobile have one cloud or many clouds. If we make devices that help you tracking phones. These are stages that I think make one cloud, recognize that it will everything you can measure: Wheth- are already happening! The question be an enabling technology! er it’s oxygen rate, activity, location, is going to be: What consequences do So, one of the consequences of life your genes, your exposure to toxins they have? How important are they? in a cloud is that it shifts the benefit – whatever it is. And these devices, And while most of these are inevita- of access away from ownership. If I things that you may have to wear ble, I think we still have a choice. want some music from the most ob- on or attached to your body, are be- It was inevitable that we would have scure African Mali band and I just coming very sophisticated and very the World Wide Web. What was not grab it and I have it now, why should quick. Nike and others are very in- inevitable was what kind of web we I buy it? If I have access to any mov- volved in trying to make these things would have. Who would own this ie any time, why should I ever buy a easier, so that in a non-invasive way, web? Would it be a transnational? movie? In fact, Netflix has changed you can begin to track your life. And Would it be a non-profit? Would it be our behaviour in that sense: We no particularly in your health. a corporation? Would it be open or longer purchase movies. We buy ac- There is “Scanadu”, which is a start- transparent? Those are all questions cess to the movies. We buy access to up. They are based in the San Fran- that we have as a culture. They are the music. My prediction is, Amazon cisco Bay Area, and they have a little political questions. will do the same thing in a few years. device called the “Tricorder”, mod- And I’m going to suggest that these You will subscribe to Amazon and elled after the Star Trek device that things that are coming are proba- you will get any book, digitally, that Spock used to wave over somebody bly not things that we have a choice you want, any time, with no addition- who was sick, and it would tell him that we reach immortality, and we about whether or not they’re coming. al charge. So books are free, as long as the diagnosis. Well, this Tricorder by ing. So I think that the long-ru- tor’s office once a year and have your Each person here is going to generate ing that we’re being surveilled ev- have AI, and it takes over. I don’t be- But we do have a lot of choices about you’re paying the subscription. Scanadu is a little thing that you touch moured “Apple Watch” is really just blood pressure changed, if you have this huge amount of data. It has to be erywhere. There are cameras ev- lieve that will happen. But I do think how we want to make them. So, this shift from ownership to ac- to your temple. And when you touch going to be a quantified self-tracking your blood pressure being tracked made meaningful! That is a huge op- erywhere, there is drones coming. that there are singularities in the soft- cess is happening, and I think it be- it to your temple, it can tell you your device. I mean, people don’t really 24 hours a day every day, you begin portunity for people who want some- It’s this idea that we’re living in a er sense, which means that we come So, one of the things that I’m not gins with digital properties but will EKG, it gives you brainwaves, it gives need another clock, but you do need to see that your pattern is different thing to do. society where our own movements up to thresholds where we can’t really going to talk about because it’s al- quickly go to physical things with you blood pressure, it gives you oxy- something that you wear that will be from other people’s patterns. Which In health, the goal is to take all this are being collected by others: So see what happens beyond. Humans ready here, is the “cloud”. People 3D printing, as I’ll mention, and oth- gen rate, heart beat... And eventually monitoring your body. And if Apple is very important, for if you do be- information and to make person- we have “Big Brother” and we have have been through one singularity talk about the cloud all the time. The er things. You’ll be able to get some- you are going to be able to breathe on goes into this, that will make it fairly come sick, you now know what your alised medicine; to actually make a “Little Brother” and we have a kind already. That was the invention of cloud basically means that you are thing when you want it. Thus, own- it. It’s like taking a blood test with- mainstream, and again, it will launch base line “normal” actually is. And drug that’s just for you. That again of “Nano Brother”. And it’s not just language. So the humanoids before doing things and have information ership will become less important. out having to be pricked. Your breath thousands of other technological you can detect these things long be- is a huge thing because most drugs them: We are doing it. Everybody the beginning of language could not that you actually aren’t in control of, In fact, ownership will be seen as a companies to occupy that eco system. fore the doctor might. have some ill effects on some part here has a cell phone, so we’re car- imagine what life would be like after that sort of exists in a distributed way liability. Because if you own some- Ownership will become When people are using this, they are So, the goal of what we see is people of the population. If we can exclude rying our own cameras with us. Ba- language. Once language happened, it out there. You talk on your phone, thing, you have to store it, you have less important. In fact, generating huge amounts of data: generating all kinds of huge amounts those people and say, “Well, you can sically anything that we can watch completely changed us. And I think, but it’s happening in a big store and to back it up, you have to upgrade it You become a source of big data. of data, tracking any kind of thing only take this drug if you have this can record us. And so, all that data is as we in the future are going to have then being transmitted elsewhere. – it’s a hassle! If this is true and we ownership will be seen Exabytes of data over your lifetime. that you can imagine. Weight, per- profile,” this will save hundreds of flowing into the governments, the big all these things like AI and immortal- That kind of cloud is out there. And really see a shift from ownership to as a liability. Because if We have been monitoring the many, formance, the things that people are billions of dollars a year and release corporations and we’re – sometimes ity and so on, that all will be so differ- it’s all “big data”, right? That’s the access, this is very fundamental, be- many early adopters who are quan- eating – not just calories but the nu- all kinds of drugs, because lots of voluntarily – surrendering where ent that we probably can’t even imag- buzz term of the day. I don’t need to cause capitalism is based on the idea you own something, you tifying their lives and monitoring tritional aspects of it – their mood, drugs never come to market because we are, for example by “checking in” ine it from this point on. That’s what say anything about that because it’s of ownership. We have all kinds of have to store it, you have all kinds of things constantly. And their intelligence: If you can think of some subset of the people of the pop- with Foursquare. So, we often do this they mean by Singularity: That things so far along. laws revolving around it. The fact is, to back it up, you have to when you do that, what’s really in- something you can measure, some- ulation are affected. But if you can voluntarily, saying, “Here I am! I’m change so much that it becomes really But what I want to bring your atten- it is fundamentally based on owner- teresting is that you get a base line body in the world is tracking it right exclude them through testing – gene over here! Track me! Use my cookies! hard for us to see beyond it. tion to is the word “clouds” – the ship. And if ownership becomes less upgrade it – it’s a hassle! for what is normal for you. When now. And the long term goal is to testing or other kinds of testing – and Follow me around the web!” plural. Because what we have right important, that changes the whole doctors talk about what is normal, make a life log: a log of your life. say, “Ok, you can’t take this, but you The ultimate destiny is a scene of Those are all things so far in the dis- now is not one cloud. We have many fundamental core of what our system they don’t really know what that is. I There are people and devices that over here can,” suddenly many more a film that I worked on with Ste- tance that we don’t really need to clouds. We have Amazon and Google is running on. It is a fundamental cul- exhales micro-molecules that can be mean, normal is an average. Nobody will take a picture every minute, remedies are available. Ultimately, ven Spielberg, “Minority Report”: think about it other than the fact that and Microsoft and these other big tural shift. detected by this device. So that’s an here is average. It turns out that your there are people who record every what we want to have is therapeutics There’s the character of John An- we tend to be headed in that direc- players where you put information example of technology that exists to- own body temperature over time is keystroke that they make, every email that are targeted just to you. That can derton, played by Tom Cruise, who tion, which says something. up. So the big invention in the 70s Another thing I want to talk about day. And the idea is that it’s becoming unique. Your heart rate is unique. or every calendar – all that stuff can be made possible by self-tracking. becomes a refugee, and he’s running and 80s was the Internet. Previous is something I was involved in start- mainstream. Your sleeping patterns are actually be saved and processed and analysed. away, and he’s running through a III. Twelve coming disruptions to the Internet, there were networks: ing, called the “Quantified Self”, We can identify many different de- unique. And we know that because The tools for analysing these are slow So we take self-tracking and we mall, but all the ads in the mall rec- I want to switch from that kind of sci- CompuServe, Arpanet... There was which is very briefly about tracking vices being sold in the Apple Store now we can self-track people all the and coming but very, very important add to that this other obvious thing ognise him and they are targeting ence fiction status to bring us back to so many networks. When I first had yourself by wearing little devices that today that are quantified self-track- time. Rather than going to the doc- and a huge opportunity for start-ups. of “Ubiquitous Tracking”, mean- him with this specific ad. So they 18 Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption 19

Vanity trumps privacy. That’s something years of very much hard work and al computers that people also dis- So we take all this stuff, and then slow progress, the understanding of missed as toys. They would say, we add another one, which is per- we didn’t know about ourselves, that we what you say is moving very fast. And “What can you do with this?” Not sonal robots. And by “personal ro- it will be a disruption. very much, but they are going to get bot” I mean not so much the Roomba are learning. better. Twice as good every year. 3D that is your personnel, but the way We have flexible displays in ad- printing is happening in the same that the personal robots are the same dition to wearables. So there’s not way. The kinds of things that you as personal computers. We had com- just the fact that we will wear things can print with this are phenomenal. puters for a long time, then person- that are flexible and computational. You can make things out of metal. al computers came up, which meant But also, screens don’t have to be You can make things out of tissue. that you owned it rather than some hard and flat – they can be flexible And you can even make things that corporation. It was your personal and cheap, made of plastic, and they cannot be manufactured in any oth- computer. And again, in the very be- can be everywhere. On my laptop, er way. And it’s not just little, tiny ginning, they weren’t very useful. But there is a big screen, but it’s kind of things. There are industrial size 3D they became immensely powerful. a stupid screen. If we have a smart printers that are printing turbines. We have personal robots right now, LED screen or plastic screen, it will And there’s of course micro print- which is the idea that they are cheap be as big and there will be things ing which is on the electron scale. enough that you could own one. that it can wrap around, like that So this is a huge field, and it has the There is a robot that is programmed Apple wrist band. Or you can have power to actually disrupt the current to recharge itself, to find a wall plug an eBook, but it doesn’t have to be regime of offshoring manufacturing and to plug itself in. The real game flat, it can actually just be flexible to places like China. If 3D printing changer has been “Baxter” which pages. And they are so cheap that can really get going on an economic is an industrial personal robot. It’s there’s a whole bunch of them. You scale, there is the possibility of hav- about 20,000 dollars, compared to a have the same beautiful navigation ing manufacturing at the local lev- million or 200,000 or 250,000 dol- device that we have, and a book that el. Not at the scale of factories, but lars for a standard industrial robot. can tell you where you are. So that at the local neighbourhood level, And it can be programmed by show- again opens up a huge array of possi- and you could be producing things ing it what to do, so you don’t need a bilities, if we have things that we can in small quantities when they were code. It watches you, you can move print on thin, flexible screens. needed. This would change man- its arms and say, “Do this! Do that!” And it does it, and you can work right are kind of defeating his purpose of sociologists said that we would val- swipe them, use them, and they feed ed with computers in basically one can begin to modify the content in Screens don’t have to be There are industrial size next to it – which you cannot do with trying to be invisible, because they ue privacy rather than transparency. back. I just saw a demonstration yes- way: with our fingertips – by typing. response. So you have this adaptive hard and flat – they can 3D printers that are any other industrial robot – because are saying, “John Anderton! We But personalisation requires trans- terday of a friend who is a doctor. But we don’t have to do that. Take system. Basically anything that you this robot is aware of you. have a special offer for you!” And parency. If I want to personalise my They are making a vest that you can again “Minority Report”, which I’ve are looking at is looking at you and be flexible and cheap, printing turbines. That changes everything in indus- that future where we are person- interaction with you, I have to know wear and it vibrates. It has sensors worked on. There was this idea that responding. If you don’t understand made of plastic, and they And there’s of course trial capacity, because this means ally targeted is what’s driving a lot about you. You have to reveal your- and it vibrates depending on the in- in the future we might stand and in- something, it will give you more. If that you basically can afford to pur- self to me. So, we are finding that if put. And they are actually using it to teract with our computers. Use our can be everywhere. micro printing which is chase the world’s cheapest labour So we have “Big Brother” people, like in the Facebook gener- let deaf people “hear” and blind peo- whole bodies. We can gesture. So There’s software being on the electron scale. by buying a robot instead of going to and we have “Little ation, are given a choice, they will ple “see”. So there’s a camera and it the Tom Cruise character is – like in developed at the MIT China or Bangladesh. You can have always choose more personalisation translates the optical information, so a symphony – conducting the data. We used to be people of the book: these things in your garage, helping Brother” and we have a rather than privacy. The way I say the person can “see” by feeling on this And we saw the same thing in “Iron that is not just tracking That used to be the centre of west- ufacturing and the economy. The you to put things together. And that kind of “Nano Brother”. it is: Vanity trumps privacy. That’s vest. Or they can “hear” by using this Man” where he’s actually comput- your eyes but can track ern culture. We had authors, which real “Holy Grail” for 3D printing has is a very powerful idea. It’s like the something we didn’t know about vest. There are clothes that not only ing using his full body. was the stem of authority. We had been to make a printer that could personal computer, which took it And it’s not just them: We ourselves, that we are learning. detect things but can actually respond The Samsung Galaxy S4 has an eye your emotion. laws, we had the scripture, we have print another printer. Wouldn’t we out of the big room and made it into are doing it. Everybody as well. So these are things that may tracking device. So while you’re look- So it knows if you’re the constitution: All things based on want that? Well, there is one that is your bedroom, and suddenly you here has a cell phone, so So, we take “Quantified Self”, we have sensors and may have actuators, ing at it, it’s looking at you, showing perplexed, if you don’t bookish text. We’ve now left that able to do that. But unfortunately, could do things with it that no one take the “Ubiquitous Tracking”, and so it becomes a garment that we actu- you where you’re looking and re- behind and we’ve become “People has even thought of before. This, we’re carrying our own we add to it the fact that we have ally interact with. I’ve already talked sponding to that. There’s software understand something, of the Screen”. And the foundations If 3D printing can really combined with 3D printing, has the cameras with us. Basically “Wearables”: wearable comput- about the “Mirror World”. Right now, being developed at the MIT that is or if you’re distracted, of truth – how we make truth – is get going on an economic chance to relocate manufacturing ers. For example the Google Glasses there are all kinds of signals in this not just tracking your eyes but can different. There are no longer au- from third world countries back anything that we can which I’ve been talking about for five room. But with special glasses, we track your emotion. So it knows if not paying attention, or if thorities. It’s much more liquid; we scale, there is the into the developed world. With 3D watch can record us. years before they came. There’s not can actually see them. We can see the you’re perplexed, if you don’t under- you’re very engrossed or have streams and flows. Nothing is possibility of having printing and a personal robot, you just Google, there’s Looxcie, there overlay. We can take the virtual world, stand something, or if you’re distract- excited. It can respond to monumental and fixed. So, “People could begin to manufacture things are about ten others right now, and which is being embedded into the real ed, not paying attention, or if you’re of the Screen”: There’s a whole new manufacturing at the in your backyard. And that shifts the of this. But also understand that we there will be more. And everybody is world, and then we can actually see very engrossed or excited. It can re- those things. culture based around screens rather local level. whole model. often benefit from it. So I can talk wearing them! both of them: an overlay of this Mir- spond to those things. And we take than on books. about the privacy issues of which Whether Google Glass survives or ror World and the real world, allow- something like eye tracking software, Self-driving cars: I’ve been a there are many. Generally, when others: These are coming very, very ing us to interact in both. which is tracking the eyes, and it can you’re really enjoying it, maybe it 3D printing is coming very fast. the printer couldn’t print much else long proponent of them. They’re people are given a choice, they will quickly. And it’s not just glasses, it’s for example generate a heat map of speeds up. It can respond in a life- It’s another disruptive enabling besides itself. But it’s a good exis- finally here. They really do work. take personalisation at the price of your clothes. There are experimen- So we take those “Wearables” and where there’s a lot of eye activity. So like way to being watched or read or technology. They look like toys in tence proof, that that is possible – They will drive safer than you. The transparency. This is a surprising tal clothes, jackets and other things, “Quantified Self” and “Ubiquitous it can show for example, which parts used. And of course, voice is another the beginning, if you’ve seen these so as to show you the versatility of thing about self-driving cars is that thing that was impossible, that we that you actually use in the same way Tracking” and we add to it gestures. of a web page people are paying at- gestural thing. The voice recognition things. But that again is changing these things. they are actually inherently safer didn’t know about ourselves. All the as your iPhone: You can touch them, For 20 years or more we’ve interact- tention to. If you know that, then you is moving very, very fast. After 20-30 very fast. It’s like the first person- than us. And my prediction is that 20 Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption Kevin Kelly Current Technologies of Disruption 21

I think that in the next 20 years, there are going to be even more changes than in the last twenty years, more unbelievable. But the important thing is that the greatest products, that are going to change us, haven’t even been invented yet. They are not even on that list, the ones that are really going to change the next 20 years. And that means: You’re not late! You are going to invent them here! This is the beginning of the beginning!

our grandchildren will be complete- move around. It’s kind of like living having to reinvent it, AI becomes a Here is an example: Google took ten medical diagnosis. So it can actually Crowdfunding. We all know like an IPO done with a crowdfunded rities as well. Anonymity and securi- ly incredulous and unbelievable that in a train, where it actually becomes commodity that you can purchase million YouTube videos and applied do doctoring. Now, will “Watson” be about “Kickstarter”. I actually did a apparatus. So you can actually go out ty is a real issue. I think, we’re seeing we were allowed to drive cars on a productive time. Think of a car re- from whatever source you want. We it to this neural net and said, “What as good as a human doctor? No. But successful Kickstarter campaign; it and say, “Ok, how many people are things like Apple’s thumbprint and the highway ourselves. They’ll say, ally as a computer with wheels! Only now use AI to diagnose X-rays, to ac- do you see in these ten million You- it’s better than no doctor. was quite an amazing experience of interested in funding my company, biometrics becoming more and more “What?! You were allowed to drive 30 percent of the costs of a car these tually do mortgage-lending – there’s Tube videos?” And the net said, “I You see, that’s the whole point: All having fans fund a graphic novel. Be- which is going to do X and Y?” And instrumental. And we are beginning 60 miles per hour? That’s crazy!” days is for materials, all the rest of lawyerly evidence it’s all done by AI see cats.” They didn’t say anything, the people of the world who have a sides Kickstarter, there are 450 other that also is going to be very transfor- to ask, “Are you really who you say And it is crazy! Because these cars it is for the intangibles. So we really – the brakes in your car right now are they just said, “What’s the picture phone can now get doctoring that platforms that are doing crowdfund- mative and enabling. you are?” will drive much safer than we do. want to think of these things as an done by a little computer, and they you see?” and what the AI said of is pretty good. Maybe not as good ed projects. This is really transform- The true value that Facebook has is And the consequence of this is kind extension of computation. brake better than you brake. That’s all these ten million YouTube Vid- as the best human doctor, but good ing the start-up culture right now, The last thing I want to talk not the “friends to friends”, it’s the of a revamping of our transportation why all the cars have them. And so eos is, “This is the pattern I see. This enough – better than no doctor. So because people don’t have to wait for about is cyber conflict. I don’t think fact that Facebook has promoted a system, because you can just call I mentioned AI in the beginning. this idea of it becoming a commodity is what is happening.” And that is a that’s where we are right now. VCs to get money to do something. there’s a utopia. I think there are unique real person identifier: a per- your car when you need it, the car AI is very controversial, because peo- is where we’re headed. So it’s going case of deep learning, where there And Google has used deep learn- They go out to the fans. So far, there many, many issues. All these things sistent real name. ple get stuck on this idea: Is it really to be like, “Yeah, I need this much in- ing to actually do an amazing thing: has been about 3 billion dollars in The thing about conscious? How intelligent is it going telligence, and I’m willing to pay that Google took ten million They did real-time translation from crowdfunded programs, and even I think we’re entering an So all these things together – the self-driving cars is to be? – And I advocate using the idea much for it.” YouTube videos and English into Chinese. So there will be companies like Samsung and others era where the wealth of Cloud, tracking, personal robots, 3D of “Utilitarian Intelligence”. Which The new thing in AI is called “Deep something going on. And now when are actually doing crowdfunded proj- printing – suggest that there are lots that they are actually means: We don’t really care if it’s Learning”. That’s what Google has applied it to this neural we will be talking, it will be translat- ects as a marketing test. They don’t the world is in the digital of coming disruptions. And each one inherently safer conscious. All you want to know is figured out. It’s using an all-technol- net and said, “What do ing into Chinese in real-time. That’s really need the money, but they’re realms, which means that of these will be inevitable. But how that this smartness is useful. It’s kind ogy of neural nets, which has been very impressive. And again: Is it as putting these things out just to see we do it is going to be up to us and than us. of like Siri. Who cares whether it’s around for 50 years. But we’re try- you see in these ten good as human simultaneous transla- how the fans react. To see if there is is where the conflicts are not really determined. I think that in intelligent? All you know is that it’s ing to do neural nets with thousands million YouTube videos?” tion? No, but it’s better than no trans- any audience or appetite for these. going to be. the next 20 years, there are going to useful. And that usefulness increases and hundreds of thousands of nodes, And the net said, lation. So anybody could have that. It’s a brilliant thing. be even more changes than in the last comes to you, and you get to the city, over time. So it will get smarter and and it turns out that it doesn’t work. And games of course: They have AIs But the real transformative thing ac- twenty years, more unbelievable. But and you let the car go find parking smarter and smarter. Let’s set aside You need billions of them! And once “I see cats.” in games. They are not as good as hu- tually happened one or two weeks will present problems in security and the important thing is that the great- itself. And they can be made into the issue of whether it’s ever intelli- you have billions of them, you can get man players, but they are better than ago: The US had a change of law, privacy. And I think we’re entering est products, that are going to change long trains – they will transform the gent or conscious! What that means “Deep Learning”. So that’s what’s having no human playing at all. So a called the JOBS Act (Jumpstart Our an era where the wealth of the world us, haven’t even been invented yet. traffic issues. though is that as AI becomes more happening right now in the AI re- is unsupervised learning. So that is lot of people play against AI-players. Businesses Startups Act), which al- is in the digital realms, which means They are not even on that list, the And I think it’s all done through a and more useful, it becomes a com- search: At the scale of Google and now going to be available to use in a That’s the idea: It’s not as good as lowed crowdfunded equity. In the that is where the conflicts are going ones that are really going to change lot of smartness of all kinds. But I modity. So basically, you’ll be able to Microsoft, they have billions of these commercial way. maybe a human, but it’s better than past, crowdfunding was only by proj- to be. China vs. USA right now is kind the next 20 years. And that means: think that one result is that it will say, “I want to purchase X amount of nets and they can finally do this cas- “Watson” is another example of deep having nobody there at all. ect. Now you can actually become a of like: You’re hacking me, I’m hack- You’re not late! You are going to in- turn the car into an office. This is smartness. I want to buy this kind of cade of neural nets and they finally learning. It can’t just beat “Jeopar- co-owner, you can issue stock. It’s ing you. But it’s not just about that. vent them here! what we’ll do with our time as we AI for this use.” And so rather than do work. It is unsupervised learning. dy!”, but now they’re using it for a way of actually having something It’s our own identities, our own secu- This is the beginning of the beginning! 22 Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight 23

Dan Gardner is an award-winning columnist with the Ottawa Citizen. In Dan Gardner 2008, Gardner examined the psychology of risk perception in Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear. A best-seller in the United Kingdom and Canada, published in 11 countries and eight languages, Risk was praised as ”an invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to think clearly“ by The Guardian. In 2008, Risk won the Canadian Science Writers’ Association award.

Turning Future In 2011, Gardner’s next book appeared, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them Anyway, a critical look at Babble Into expert predictions and the psychology that explains why people believe them even though they consistently fail. Gardner is at work on a new book about forecasting, co-writing with Wharton School psychologist Philip Tetlock. Real Foresight Prior to becoming a journalist in 1997, Gardner was senior policy advisor to the Minister of Education of Ontario and social policy advisor to the Premier. He holds a B.A. and M.A. in history from York University and an LL.B. from Osgoode Hall Law School.

The following text is a transcript of a lecture held at the Cologne Conference Futures 2013 – the Annual Symposium on Media Evolution Cologne, October 2nd, 2013

I. Failed Predictions to consult history. If we’re looking So, you might say, “Hang on, that Many of you will be familiar with We’re going to be talking about the ahead twenty years, let’s look back might just be an anomaly.” the book Physics of the Future by future. And if there’s one thing we twenty years and look at the future Let’s go twenty years before that! Michio Kaku. It’s a really interesting know about what you might de- from that perspective. Let’s go back to 1973. Imagine you’re book. Kaku is a physicist; he’s got a scribe as the medium-term future, in 1973, and you’re thinking about lot to say that is very interesting, and twenty years out, one thing that In 1993, there was another Asian su- the far distant future of 1993. What’s as he likes to say, he interviewed 300 pretty much everyone on the world perpower that was going to surpass the global economy going to look leading scientists from around the is sure of, it’s that China is going to the United States and become the like in 1993? Well, the United States world. So boy, you can take these surpass the United States to become world’s number one economy. Ev- are going to be overtaken as the predictions to the bank! This is the the world’s largest economy and eryone was sure of it. In fact, there world’s leading economy by…? future of science and technology all become the dominant player in the was a stronger consensus then. In The Soviet Union! the way to the year 2100. And he’s global economy. Some people dis- North America, I can tell you, we very confident and very compelling. sent, but generally, there’s broad- were all advised, “Have your kids If you have taken Economics 101 He tells a good story when he talks spread agreement about this. And in learn to speak Japanese!” Everyone in university at any time within the about how technology really will fact, it’s not terribly controversial. was absolutely sure of it. The con- last 50 years, chances are your text- evolve. But what do we do with this But what should we do with this fidence was overwhelming. I have book was called “Economics”, writ- information? Well, we can wait un- forecast? Is it reliable? Well, there’s a full shelf full of the books that ten by Paul Samuelson: One of the til 2100 – useless – or we can find a good story behind it. There’s good were written in this time period. Of best-selling textbooks of all time. something equivalent in the past. reason to think that it could be true. course, they were wrong about Ja- And in that book, Paul Samuelson, a And there was in fact the future of But we don’t know that it will be pan. The great economic story of the Nobel Prize winning economist, in technology in 1967. true. We don’t know that it’s accu- last twenty years is of course the rise the 1950s, 60s, 70s, even in the 1980s, rate. So, what do we do with this in- of China, so then it occurred to me: had a chart. And that chart clearly There is a book called The Year 2000 formation? One thing that we could What did they say about China? So I showed the United States’ economy by Herman Kahn and Anthony Wie- do, is we could wait twenty years got all the books down and I looked being overtaken by that of the Soviet ner. Herman Kahn, of course, is the and find out. But that’s not terribly in the index, under “C” for China, Union sometime around 1991. And of man who legendarily worked for the helpful to you and the planning of and you know what I found? Noth- course, 1991 was an important year in RAND Corporation and founded the your investments or business strat- ing! In book after book after book, the history of the Soviet Union, but Hudson Institute. A brilliant man. egies or whatever else. So what else not only were they wrong about Ja- for entirely different reasons. And by the way, I would note that can we do? Well, there’s a very sim- pan and Japanese supremacy; they this book is much less ambitious ple thing that we can do, that peo- never mentioned China! And we’re That’s global economics. That’s the than Kaku’s. It’s “only” 1967 to the ple almost never do when they’re talking about some of the world’s big picture stuff. But let’s try this year 2000, so he’s being very mod- dealing with forecasts. And that’s leading scholars, pundits, experts. with technology. est. There’s a list in that book: 100 24 Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight 25

verse, but it has limitations. If you sion-making than you realize. And go to a cognitive psychologist and that’s a problem, because what Sys- you say, “Give me the basics! Tell me tem 1 does in order to create snap how we decide!” he’ll start with this: judgments, in order to give you that He’ll say, “Let me ask you. You made instantaneous response, is that it a forecast – how did you make that doesn’t think slowly and logically forecast?” And you’ll scratch your about all the available evidence. If it head and say, “Well, I thought about did that, it wouldn’t be able to deliv- it, I looked at the facts, and I drew a er the way it does. What it does is, conclusion that seemed reasonable. it uses heuristics – rules of thumb. My one system of thought came to Simple rules that allow it to come to a conclusion.” And the psycholo- a quick conclusion. For example one gist will say, “Aha! That’s it! That’s of them is the availability heuristic: an illusion! You’re wrong! You do Can I easily think of an example of not have one system of thought; X happening? If the answer is yes, you have two systems of thought.” then it is very likely that X is going And because psychologists are very to happen. If you have to struggle to clever and imaginative people, they think of an example, then it’s very call these two systems “System 1” unlikely that X is going to happen. and “System 2”. System 1 is the more In many circumstances, that works primitive: It’s the intuitive, it’s the well. But sometimes it doesn’t. I’ll spontaneous, it’s the fast. You look give you a dramatic example: the at a problem, and sometimes you 9/11 terrorist attacks. In Canada, just have an answer, instantaneous- perception of the risk of terrorist at- ly: It’s there. And sometimes, when tacks prior to 9/11 – and of course, somebody asks you, “How did you this is Canada, I emphasize, not the come to this conclusion?” and you United States – didn’t exist. It was can’t quite explain why – that’s Sys- off the charts. People weren’t even tem 1 at work. System 2 is just the thinking about it. After 9/11, it shot opposite: It’s conscious thought. up to the top of the charts. People were personally afraid. The numbers technological changes that are “very but it’s not that earth-shattering. the list – none happened. And then get any significant market share.” We have so many smart metaphor is not terribly helpful. A Now, what’s the distinguishing fea- are really quite staggering. Does that likely” by the year 2000. Note the But I have to be fair, there are a few there was ten “far-out possibilities” The same thing in politics. This is lot of reality is more like a cloud.” ture between those two systems? make any sense whatsoever? Was words “very likely”! Now go down items like this: – none happened. That’s not good. my favorite: The Wall Street Journal people who are so A cloud emerges from the complex Speed. System 1 works just like that. that based upon a reasoned analy- the list. It’s a great, long list, very de- And if you know that that’s not good, editorialized about the presiden- motivated to foresee interactions of molecules within Conscious thought is slow. And what sis of the available evidence, of the tailed. I won’t take you through ev- No 81. “Personal pagers, perhaps that helps inform how you should be tial election of 1996 that “Bill Clin- what’s going to happen, it. You can’t predict what form the that means is, the standard decision threat of Al-Qaeda to the average Ca- erything. But there are a few items even two-way pocket phones, reading similar forecasts today. Be- ton will lose to any Republican who cloud will ultimately take; you can pattern that we follow is this: You nadian? Of course not, it had nothing like this: and other personal electronic doesn’t drool on stage”. And in 1929, and they’re trying so look, System 1 delivers, and then Sys- to do with that. It had nothing to do equipment.” There’s an endless list of Irving Fisher, who was at that time hard. Why do we do Reality is more cloud tem 2 can come along slowly and say, No 4. “New or improved the leading economist of the era, “Ok, let’s have a look at what System The human brain is these failed predictions so badly? than clock; there are materials for equipment and Ok, “two-way pocket phones” – said immediately before the Wall 1 gave me.” And it can say, “Oh, that magnificent at creating appliances.” that’s pretty good. Give the man a in business. My personal Street Crash of 1929, “Stock prices fundamental limits doesn’t quite make sense. I’ll adjust it gold star here! But there’s a whole favorite is Steve Ballmer have reached what looks like a per- all very mathematical and we can do interwoven into reality a little,” or even overrule it entirely, patterns. In fact, it’s too Well, that’s rather like saying, “In lot more on that list, things like this: manently high plateau.” This is all it with amazing reliability. And from “I’m going to throw that out!” saying, “There’s no to our ability to predict. good. It errors on the side the future, people will continue to very entertaining. There are long, the earliest days of science, that was The only question is: Are you going of inclusion. We see false breath air.” It’s true – but it’s not ter- No 27. “Use of nuclear explosives chance that the iPhone long lists. In fact, there are literally how we understood reality. Reality to do that? Are you going to make ribly helpful. for excavation and mining […]” is going to get any entire books of failed predictions was a clock. It was a big, complicat- the effort to consciously think about patterns all the time: You No 31. “Some control of weather because we all have schadenfreude ed clock, but it was a clock. And the only wait and see what comes out. your conclusion, and whether it look at the Moon, you see No 15. “New techniques for or climate.” significant market share.” when we read this sort of thing. more that we understood the mech- So natural scientists have become makes sense, and whether it’s sup- preserving or improving the No 35. “Human hibernation for anisms of the clock, the better we much, much humbler about their ported by evidence? a face. You look at burned environment.” relatively extensive periods II. Why predictions Fail would be able to predict the behav- ability to predict, and they believe toast, you see the Virgin (months to years).” cause of course this is not an anom- But the more meaningful question ior of the clock. And that’s how sci- that in the future, there will always And what is one of the most fun- That language is so vague, it’s per- No 53. “Permanent inhabited aly. There are many, many other ex- is: Why are we so bad? We have so ence advanced for centuries. be these permanent barriers to their damental insights of psychology? – Mary – if you’re Catholic. fectly elastic, and it can be stretched undersea installations and amples like it. I could lecture for the many smart people who are so moti- ability to predict. Their knowledge And if you remember nothing else to fit almost anything. perhaps even colonies.” rest of the afternoon on that, but that vated to foresee what’s going to hap- And the belief was that as knowledge may grow, but the ability to predict from this talk, remember this – It’s No 99. “Artificial moons and wouldn’t be terribly helpful. pen, and they’re trying so hard. Why grew, our ability to predict would will not grow along with it. So that’s that we typically do not. We typical- with evidence. It had to do with how No 70. “Simple inexpensive other methods for lighting large And of course, it’s not just global do we do so badly? Well, very briefly, grow with it in perfect linear fash- one of the big ones. I mean: Reality ly draw an intuitive conclusion and people felt. “Can I think of an exam- video recording and playing.” areas at night.” economics, and it’s not just technol- let’s go back to the beginning of the ion. Until you get to the mid-20th is more cloud than clock; there are say, “That’s it. That’s my final an- ple of terrorism?” Of course you can, ogy, it’s business! There’s an end- history of science. century and we come crashing into fundamental limits interwoven into swer. I’m sure of it. It feels true, so it you can’t stop thinking about it, be- That’s better! That’s real! But real- So, that’s not very good. And that less list of these failed predictions non-linearity. And surprise! Scien- reality to our ability to predict. must be true.” That means that your cause you just saw it live and in col- ly, what he’s describing there is: An wasn’t the only list. There was also a in business. My personal favorite is Isaac Newton gave us the ability to tists revised their understanding of System 1, that system of thought or on television. And so the intuitive existing technology will get cheaper list of “less likely but important pos- Steve Ballmer saying, “There’s no predict the motions of the planets. reality radically, and they start to say Here’s the other big one: Your brain. that you’re completely unaware of, mind says, “Aha! Be afraid!” And we and more common. Which is useful, sibilities”. There were 25 items on chance that the iPhone is going to That’s an amazing thing, right? It’s things like, “Well, actually the clock It’s one of the wonders of the uni- is far more influential on your deci- went with that. – Are you afraid of 26 Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight 27 terrorism? Oh yes. And that has real But think about this: What I just de- The final result of Philip Tetlock’s consequences, obviously. So that’s a scribed to you is an extremely brief big problem. We have errors from in- summary of Daniel Kahneman’s book experiment was that the average expert tuitive heuristics. Thinking Fast and Slow. Kahneman is a Nobel Prize winning psychologist, was about as accurate as random Once we believe one of the greatest scientists alive to- guessing, or if you prefer a more colorful something, anything, for day, really. And if you’ve read Think- ing Fast and Slow – and if you haven’t, metaphor: a dart-throwing chimpanzee. any reason, good or bad, you really should – you’ll know that we will readily embrace one of the themes that he keeps going back to is how he himself gets getting any information that tripped up by this stuff. The man supports our conclusion. who discovered so much of what I’m talking about says, “Even today, if I’m not careful, it trips me up.” You have We also have false patterns. The hu- to realize that we’re not immune. man brain is magnificent at creating And yet a fundamental insight is: Not patterns. In fact, it’s too good. It er- only does knowledge and informa- rors on the side of inclusion. We see tion and more knowledge and more false patterns all the time: You look information not protect you against at the Moon, you see a face. You look psychological biases – it can actually at burned toast, you see the Virgin make you more vulnerable. You real- Mary – if you’re Catholic. ly have to be on alert for this stuff. And then we have confirmation bias, and this is very, very pernicious. This III. Should We Abandon All Hope? is an important one to remember: So if you think about it, we have a Once we believe something, any- world in which unforecastability is thing, for any reason, good or bad, we interwoven into the very nature of will readily embrace any information our existence. And we have a brain that supports our conclusion. We which makes systematic errors. And won’t ask if it’s good information or not. No, of course it’s good informa- Not only does know- rations and governments spend two thirds of business executives examples of times that experts made result was that the average expert Why is that? Why doesn’t Phil Tet- all the things he thought might make tion, it confirms what I believe! And ledge and information enormous amounts of money on the believed that they know what the forecasts, and the forecasts failed. was about as accurate as random lock take the more radical position, the difference – education, access to so you’ll assemble information that equivalent of crystal-ball-gazing? price of oil will be in twenty years. Does that prove that expert forecasts guessing, or if you prefer a more which is: Abandon all hope! Well, do classified information, whether you way. But simultaneously, you will not and more knowledge and Why is that? Why is it that the media routinely fail? No. It’s just a bunch colorful metaphor: a dart-throwing you know the old statistician joke? have a university post or not, wheth- think to yourself, “Is there any infor- more information not spends an enormous amount of time That’s ridiculous! That’s self-evi- of stories. Anecdotes aren’t data, as chimpanzee. That statisticians like to sleep with er you’re right-wing or left-wing, mation out there that actually sug- protect you against and space and energy reporting on dently absurd! And how do I know scientists like to say. If you’re going Now, that is stronger evidence. That their heads in the freezer and their optimistic or pessimistic… None of gests that I’m wrong?” You will not the equivalent of crystal-ball-gaz- that? Because we’ve been trying to to actually have a better grip on that is a stronger basis for skepticism feet in the oven, because the average those things mattered. One thing go looking for that; that is not what psychological biases – ing? Why is it that when I go to the forecast the price of oil ever since it question, “How good are expert fore- about expert forecasts. But is it a temperature is really comfortable? and one thing only defined the two human beings naturally do. Scientists it can actually make you airport-bookstore, I always see the became an industrial commodity in casts?” you have to experiment, and strong case for abandoning all hope, Averages can obscure. They can be groups of experts: It was the style of do that, because they’re trained to do equivalent of crystal-ball-gazing on the late 19th century. And we’ve been you have to do things properly. You as some have done? Nassim Taleb extremely deceptive. And that aver- thinking. It was how they thought. it. But that is not what we do natural- more vulnerable. the bestseller list? There are a lot of wrong and wrong again. Oil is in- can’t go and cherry-pick anecdotes. for example, author of The Black age about the dart-throwing chim- ly. And if somebody comes along and customers somewhere; I don’t know credibly difficult to forecast, maybe So what would a proper experiment Swan, argues that basically you can’t panzee, that’s an example of it. “The fox knows many shoves that information under your where they are. impossible, I don’t know. And peo- look like in this field? forecast anything meaningful or im- What Tetlock actually found was two things, but the hedgehog nose, and says, “Here! Read this!” – we’re trying to forecast with it. If you So what I want to suggest to you is: ple who really know oil understand portant. Forget it! Just give up! And distinguishable groups of experts. you will rationalize like crazy to try think about these two facts in com- We’re not actually as skeptical as we that. I had a chance to interview the Well, Phil Tetlock, my co-author Taleb and others who make that One was a catastrophe; they would knows one big thing.” and figure out some reason why this bination, what’s really amazing is not think we are. In the abstract, we’re former legendary head of BP, John on the new book I’m writing, start- sort of argument, they cite Tetlock’s have been beaten by the dart-throw- is actually very bad evidence and you that we sometimes get things wrong, skeptical, but when it comes to Browne. And so I said to him about ed one in the late 1980s. And what work. “Dart-throwing chimpanzee – ing chimpanzees. The other group shouldn’t concern yourself with it. it’s that we get anything right. So, ob- something practical, it’s very hard forecasting the price of oil, “Tell me, he did was, he gathered about 284 give up now!” was a long way from being the Or- IV. Foxes and Hedgehogs And in that way, the error that we viously the theme that I’m working to maintain skepticism. And here’s a John Browne, you spent a lifetime experts – they were political scien- But the funny thing is, Phil Tetlock acle of Delphi, but they had real in- When Phil looked at this distinguish- started with becomes more and more here and what I’m trying to encour- neat illustration: There was a survey in oil: What will the future price of tists, economists, intelligence ana- himself has never believed that. In sight. They would have beaten the ing feature, he came up with a meta- entrenched. And we start to believe age you to do is to be skeptical. Be conducted of business executives. oil be?” And he said, “I can forecast lysts, the sorts of people who make fact, his position goes by this term: dart-throwing chimpanzee; they phor and a set of labels for these two in it more and more strongly, thus skeptical of forecasters! And when I And they were asked a question confidently that it will vary.” That’s forecasts as part of their work – and “Skeptical meliorism”. The “skep- would have beaten random guessing. groups of experts. He called them leading to delusion and overconfi- say that, the audience is always say- which matters to a lot of business a wise man. he had them forecast all the sorts of tical” portion is obvious, it simply So they had real predictive insight, “foxes” and “hedgehogs”. And the dence. We believe things that just ing, “Ok. I get that, but I don’t need executives: What’s the future price things that pundits forecast: Elec- means: Until you give me proper ev- but as I said, they were a long way reason why he did that is the follow- aren’t true with way too much confi- to be told that, because of course I of oil? What will the price be in five So here I am. I’m urging you to be tions, wars, the economy, that sort of idence, I will not believe what you from perfection. They would have ing. Some of you may remember the dence. One of the most basic findings am skeptical. We’re all far too clever! years? Five percent of business ex- skeptical. If you are being skeptical, thing. It was a huge number of fore- say. “Meliorism” simply means the been beaten by simple algorithms. Isaiah Berlin essay from the 1950s. in cognitive science is that people are We’re not the customer here. We’re ecutives said, “I don’t know.” Ten if you are taking my advice, you have casts that were made in this exper- possibility of improvement. So he’s But, and that is the key finding, there Isaiah Berlin was quoting an Ancient overconfident in their judgments. not the guy credulously looking at percent said, “I don’t know what spotted a flaw in my argument. I ha- iment, something like 28,000. And skeptical about forecasts, he wants was real predictive insight. Greek poet, and it was this scrap of We’re just way too sure of ourselves. the crystal ball. It’s somebody else.” the price of oil will be in ten years.” ven’t actually proven the premise of he waited. Time passed, he analyzed to see evidence, but he also believes poetry in which he says, “The fox Now, you may be thinking, “But I am It’s always somebody else. And what will be the price of oil be my argument. I’ve given you a bunch the accuracy, he crunched all the that there is reason to believe that And so the question is: What distin- knows many things, but the hedge- an intelligent, educated person. I am in twenty years? 33 percent said, “I of anecdotes, I’ve given you a bunch data, and then in 2005 he released we can improve. guishes the two groups? And Phil an- hog knows one big thing.” Now, the immune.” And yet, why is it then that corpo- don’t know.” Or to turn that around, of stories, I’ve given you a bunch of the complete results. And the final alyzed his data; he went looking for poetry is ambiguous: Who is in a bet- 28 Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight 29

The fox is comfortable with complexity. The fox wants to get as much information as possible from as many different sources and as many different perspectives as possible and draw it all together.

ter position there? What does that analysis until they get clarity. And of Of course, that makes life complicat- that there is an inverse correlation other hand, some of them point in out and be sure.” So you do the V. How to Improve Forecasting tive judgment built into the model. mean exactly? It’s not clear from the course, if you do that, you’re going ed. But that’s ok, the fox is comfort- between fame and accuracy. Stop that direction. Balance of probabili- tests, they send them off, and you Engineers often say this, “Boy, peo- And there’s always human, subjec- poetry. But what Phil meant was this: to be increasingly confident that you able with complexity. The fox wants and think about that for a moment. ty says it’s probably more likely than wait. And anybody who’s ever been ple are messed up. If we could just tive judgment built into the mod- As in the poetry, the hedgehog knows have the correct answer. And they to get as much information as pos- Isn’t that just amazing? not that it’s going to go this way, through that will tell you that the get rid of the humans. We have so el. You can’t eliminate the people. one big thing. In this case, it means are. They are very confident. You sible from as many different sources but there’s upside risk, and there’s waiting is hell. It’s the worst of the much data, and we have PhDs, and Surely, we should know this by now. that the expert had one big analytical can see it in the language that they and as many different perspectives Now, why is that? I’m guessing that downside risk, and…” There’s steam entire experience. And unfortunate- mathematics that produce algo- Remember what 2008 was? 2008, idea – one framework idea that really use. Hedgehogs are much more like- as possible and draw it all together. German television has exposed you coming out of your ears at this point. ly, sometimes the tests come back, rithms – which we don’t under- that horrible event – did Wall Street drives everything. It could be ratio- ly to say something like, “It is cer- That is going to do what? It’s going to both such creatures. – Who makes You want an answer. And a probabil- you sit down with your doctor, and stand, but they’re almost magical! lack for PhDs and mathematics us- nal expectations, it could be peak oil, tain”, “Impossible, this will never to make for a messy analysis. And better television, the fox or the hedge- ity judgment doesn’t feel like an an- the doctor says, “Unfortunately, the And they produce amazing results. ing clever algorithms? No, they’re it could be resource scarcity, it could happen,” or “It will / won’t happen.” messy analyses usually end in not hog? If you’re a TV producer, who do swer because it says, “I’m not sure.” tests have confirmed that you have Can’t we just get rid of the people all over the street, the place is full be any number of different things. Notice that there’s no probability having a definitive answer. There is you want as your guest? You want the I mean, that’s fundamentally what a cancer.” Do you know what people and leave it all up to the data ana- of them. All the sophisticated algo- there. It’s just, “It will,” or “It won’t.” going to be a big pile of uncertain- hedgehog. The hedgehog tells a sim- probability judgment is. It’s an ex- almost universally report feeling at lysts? Wouldn’t that be miraculous? rithms blew up. There are many oth- The hedgehog expert The fox knows many things. In this ty underneath. But they’re ok with ple, clear story. The fox is like, “I’m pression, “I think, but I’m not sure.” that moment? Relief. They always Then we can avoid all these other er pieces to the story, but they blew has one big analytical case, it means that the fox doesn’t that. “It’s an uncertain world,” the not sure…” If you’re a producer, you That’s not good enough. You want to say the same thing, “At least I know.” problems.” To which I respond this: up in part because human, subjec- have one big analytical idea. The fox fox says, “You have to accept some don’t want this. Which is why, when hear an answer! You want the one- That is how fundamental our aver- Long-Term Capital Management. tive judgments were built into the idea – one framework will use many different analytical uncertainty.” And of course, accept- you turn on CNBC, it’s a parade of armed economist! sion to uncertainty is, that believing algorithms, as they always are, and that really drives ideas and will jump from analytical ing uncertainty requires a certain hedgehogs. That’s great television. that something bad may happen can It was a hedge fund in the 1990s. It sometimes they are wrong. everything. intellectual humility. Again, you But that’s just begging the question. Why is that? Why are we so dis- be more psychologically oppressive traded using mathematical formu- So we can’t eliminate the people; we The fox expert will use can see it in the language that foxes The question is: Why is it great tele- satisfied with hearing, “On the one than being certain that it will. lae developed by two Nobel Prize have to improve human judgment. many different analytical use. The foxes are much more likely vision? And I think part of the answer hand… On the other hand… It may winning economists. Not one, two. How do you improve the humans? to use the language of probability: can be illustrated this way: President happen…” I argue this: We have And so it’s very, very deep-rooted. Long-Term Capital Management Here’s a human who has done pretty But it was one big, defining idea, and ideas and will jump from “Likely / Unlikely”, “It may hap- Harry Truman said that he wanted to a fundamental, deep-rooted psy- And when we want an answer, and used its mathematical formulae very well: they used this analytical tool over and analytical idea to analyti- pen,” and “I don’t know.” Hedgehogs hear from a “one-armed economist”, chological aversion to uncertainty. we go to the expert, and the expert successfully. It made a killing. Un- over again when making forecasts. cal idea, depending on really hate that. because he was sick of hearing, “On There’s lots of research in support of says, “On the one hand… On the other til something happened, and then “You can achieve incredible prog- And hedgehogs prefer simplicity. Who is the better forecaster? The the one hand… on the other hand…” this, which you can find in my book hand… Maybe.” – It’s not an answer. it just blew up. And if it hadn’t been ress if you set a clear goal and find They don’t want to clutter up their the problem that the fox fox. The foxes were the experts who That is human nature. When you Future Babble. But I think probably So you go to the guy who says, “Well, bailed out, there’s a good chance a measure that will drive progress analysis with information. They is forecasting. had real predictive insights. As with have a really important question, you the best illustration is this, because there’s only one hand. And here’s the that it would have taken down Wall toward that goal.” – Bill Gates want to use the minimum amount hedgehogs: Run screaming from the want an answer. And when someone unfortunately a lot of people have answer.” And you say, “Thank you! Street with it. So the model worked of information necessary to produce room if you encounter one. comes along and says, “Well, I think experience with this: That’s what I needed.” And that’s ex- really well – until it didn’t. To which you would respond, “That an answer. They also demand clar- But here is the real punch line from there are six factors involved, may- You go to your doctor, and the doc- actly the wrong sort of analysis, that’s And what happened? Why did it seems about right, Bill. But isn’t ity. They don’t want things vague to analytical idea, depending on the Phil’s research: Who was more fa- be seven. On the one hand, some of tor says, “I think you may have can- exactly the wrong sort of person you not work so well at that moment? that kind of obvious? Don’t we all and fuzzy; they want to push the problem that the fox is forecasting. mous? The hedgehog. Phil found them point in this direction. On the cer. But we have to do tests to find should be listening to. Because there was human, subjec- do that?” Bill Gates has anticipat- 30 Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight Dan Gardner Turning Future Babble Into Real Foresight 31 ed your response, and he responds, or so on, because we all understand “This may seem basic, but it is amaz- those terms differently. We think that ing how often it is not done and how we are in agreement. I say, “It’s very hard it is to get right.” That is so likely,” and you say, “Ok, by that you true. And nowhere is that truer than mean...” And then you have a certain in many – not all, but many – fields interpretation. Guess what? Our in- of forecasting. So, we have to set a terpretations very often don’t match. goal, and we have to measure, and In fact, the research on this is very we have to progress toward the goal. clear. This language is again incredi- bly elastic. The only way to eliminate How do you do that in forecasting? that ambiguity is numerical probabil- For various complicated method- ity judgments. – “How likely is it that ological reasons, Phil Tetlock argues this thing is going to happen? I say 80 you need to do this: You need to do percent.” There’s no ambiguity there. forecasting tournaments. As soon as And the other neat thing about num- people see “tournament”, they think bers is that they allow calculations. “competition”, they think “win – You also need large numbers of pre- lose”. But it’s not about that. It’s dictions. One prediction: It hits, it’s about getting good, hard data and exactly right – does that mean this is real insights into forecasting, and a good forecaster or was the forecast- then using them – good measure- er just lucky? I don’t know. You need ment – to progress toward the goal. large numbers to figure that out, to And if you have forecasting tourna- have reliable and meaningful results. ments, bring people together, have So, you’re asking these questions in a them forecast. You can develop that, forecasting tournament: right? That’s your measuring stick; “Precisely how good are the fore- you can measure your way towards casters?” your goal. What do forecasting tour- “Why are some forecasters better naments require? than others?” If you nail that down, you can then First thing is: unambiguous ques- move on to: “How can we make them tions. One of the banes of forecast- better?” So it’s a very big, expensive thing. Tetlock won, I should emphasize that ple training”, I mean really simple. He sons!” They read it once at the be- of all their forecasts, the super fore- formance by putting them in teams ing is elastic, vague, ambiguous If we know what the “magic ingre- Five university-based teams, more Phil’s research program is enormous literally had people read some short ginning of the season. And that’s it. casters beat that by 65 percent. with other super forecasters and by language. A lot of the forecasts that dients” are, can we use those ingre- than 5,000 volunteer forecasters and complicated, and there’s so many essays about probability judgments. And in that year, it produced a ten giving them that simple training. I mentioned earlier on – Herman dients to try and improve forecast in in total, 250 forecast-questions so different facets to it. I’m simplify- It took about half an hour to read, so percent improvement in accuracy. They beat the best competing algo- Kahn’s for example – have vague general? far – by the way, we’re only in year ing greatly here, but basically, what this is really simple stuff. And it was So that’s pretty exciting, because it’s rithms by 35 to 60 percent. Now here is, to use an Americanism, language. When you look at the out- Now, who has done this sort of thing? two of this – more than one million I mean is this: He has a huge base of things like for instance, “Pay attention so simple and easy to do. Here’s an- And they beat two prediction mar- the 64,000 dollar question: What come and you say, „Ok, we now know Very, very few. As I said, corpora- forecasts made. What are the sorts volunteers who are making forecasts, to the base rate!” To illustrate: If you kets by 20 to 35 percent. makes super forecasters super? In the outcome. Was the forecast right tions and governments, they spend of questions that they’re asking? – then he aggregates those forecasts have a project, and you say that the Just by reading Again, that’s really impressive stuff. large parts it’s this – not entirely: or not?“ you say, “I don’t know. May- massive amounts of money on fore- By the way, this isn’t the actual lan- in various ways to get the wisdom project is going to be finished in April, short essays about They are intelligent; they are a smart be, maybe not.” And the forecasters, casting and they spend almost noth- guage that they use. It’s more elabo- of the crowds, then he applies algo- and you judge how likely it is that it’s Now, if you’re being skeptical – and bunch, an educated bunch. There they always say, “Yes, it’s right.” And ing on analyzing, let alone seeking rate to have that precision, I’m just rithms to those forecasts to try and actually going to be finished in April probability judgments I do hope you are – you might say, was a conference of super forecast- so you get into these pointless ar- to improve it. But that started to condensing it: improve them again. And when I say – you would ask yourself, “Who do I for half an hour, there “Hang on! In any tournament, there’s ers in Philadelphia this summer, I change. And there’s one significant “Will Greece default within six “algorithms”, I don’t mean crazy, ob- have working for me? What are my re- going to be a top two percent. There met them. They come from a very Five university-based change here: There is a US govern- months?” scure math that no one understands; sources?” – That’s one way to answer was a ten percent are going to be people who score wide array of backgrounds, but all teams, more than 5,000 ment agency, an agency of the intel- “Will North Korea test a nuclear I mean very simple stuff. For example, that question. improvement in well, no matter what. It could just be very clever, impressive people. But ligence community you almost cer- bomb within the next year?” if you have identified that some of the The other way is: Consult the base forecasting accuracy. luck.” Which of course is absolutely there was something else they had volunteer forecasters in tainly have never heard of – and they “Who will win the July election in forecasters in your crowd are actu- rate. Look at all the other projects true after one year. And so you say to in common: They were all exem- total, 250 forecast- like it that way. It’s the Intelligence Ghana?” ally very weak, then you drop them, like this and ask yourself, “How often yourself, “We’ve identified these top plars of the fox style of thinking. questions so far, more Advanced Research Projects Activi- Not easy questions, I think you and if you’ve identified that some are they done on time?” And if the two percent. What will happen next ty (IARPA) – this is the intelligence would agree. are very good, then you bump up the answer is, “They’re never done on other aspect of the outcome so far year?” How much of their results was It was really interesting to be in a than one million equivalent of DARPA. And what they The winner: Team Tetlock. weighting of their forecasts. Very time,” you should treat that informa- that’s really intriguing: “super fore- the product of luck? If it was 100 per- room full of these people, because it forecasts made. have done is, they went to leading simple stuff like that. And Phil’s best tion very seriously. So it’s a very sim- casters”. What Phil did was, at the cent luck, you would see very fast re- was just a classic fox and a classic university-based researchers, includ- The experiments are ongoing, but I performing algorithm beat everybody ple point. And that is part of this base end of the first year, he identified gression to the mean. The people at fox and a classic fox… Very exciting ing Phil Tetlock, and said, “We want think we can now say publicly that by a country mile. IARPA set certain training. And the incredible thing the top two percent of forecasters the top would be in the middle or be- stuff for me. to set up a forecasting tournament. Team Tetlock won because Team benchmark standards that they want- was, just by reading this stuff for half and called them, rather grandiosely, low very quickly. And if it was a sub- guments whether the forecast was We will ask questions that are the Tetlock trounced all the other uni- ed everybody to clear; that was the an hour, there was a ten percent im- “super forecasters”. Here’s how the stantial amount of luck, you would So if you want to get involved by right or not. You have to eliminate sorts of questions that intelligence versity-based teams to such an extent goal. Phil blew right past them. provement in forecasting accuracy. super forecasters did overall as an see less regression to the mean, but the way – as I said, it’s an ongoing that, and the only way to eliminate analysts ask themselves all the time. that IARPA said, “Ok, let’s just wrap And one of the most intriguing results average: They beat the wisdom of the still a lot of it. Guess what you saw: project – you can volunteer. You can that is to have unambiguous, clear, You can use any methods you want, up this competitive aspect,” and then I think is this: Some gains are really And that’s over a year! And they crow by 65 percent. By the wisdom of No regression to the mean. And find out how good you are at fore- precise questions. and we’ll have the methods compete, they folded their funding into Phil easy. One of the things that Phil did weren’t asked to repeat this, it the crowd I mean: There was 5,000 very excitingly, as good as they are casting. Similarly, it’s not good enough to use and we’ll look at the data, and we’ll Tetlock’s research program, which is was to provide simple training to cer- wasn’t that once a month they were volunteers all together across all the as a group, Phil was actually able to the language of “likely”, “very likely” compare, and we’ll learn!” now ongoing. And when I say Team tain individuals. And when I say “sim- told, “Go back and read your les- teams; if you took the simple average improve the super forecasters’ per- Thanks so much! 32 Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics 33

Kathrin Passig works as a writer, journalist, and bad programmer. In 2006 she Kathrin Passig won the prestigious Ingeborg Bachmann Prize with her first prose piece. Her non-fiction books (on the topics of procrastination, sadomasochism, open questions in science, getting lost, and the internet) have been translated into eleven languages. Her latest book on how to suck less at programming was released by O’Reilly in late 2013. At zufallsshirt.de she runs a shop for randomly I Can’t Believe generated unique T-shirts, “an experiment in artificial stupidity”. It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics The following text is a transcript of a lecture held at the Cologne Conference Futures 2013 – the Annual Symposium on Media Evolution C2a C2b L2Cologne, October 2nd, 2013

I. Understanding the Present years. Dan Gardner in his book and consultants keep talking about: The at all. I looked at it and I thought it Dan Gardner today already did a lot also in today’s talk describes hard- mobile Internet and its consequenc- would be like its predecessor, the UNI PT of the heavy lifting for me. Usually wired aversion to uncertainty, but I es, coworking spaces and a changing videotext. I thought this Internet I have to explain all the Tetlock re- think most change-related problems nature of the workplace, increasing thing would be another boring in- 4937 23 search and all the cognitive biases. we face are not even about uncer- mobility… vention that would appeal only to C1a It’s nice not having to do that once tainty. It’s quite certain, in fact, it’s In many situations, there is not even the most hardcore nerds. And I was L1 in a while. Most of the examples I’m a need to predict the future. You, or 23 at the time, so it’s not a problem going to use are expert predictions as I’m going to talk about in some cases your company, will do of old age. well, but I will not talk about how to fine if you just manage not to lose There is a quite comforting blog post, C1b our own mistakes in judge these predictions; I’m going to touch with the present, or at least written by Kevin Kelly in 2008 with talk about our own mistakes in judg- judging or evaluating acknowledge that the present is the title “Digital Things I’ve Been ing or evaluating everyday change everyday change and Wrong About” and in that blog post and dealing with change. I will try We don’t need to talk he writes, “When I saw the first ver- dealing with change. to explain how we can avoid saying about the future that sion of Photoshop in 1990 I thought things about the future that we will I will try to explain how it was a joke.” He was wrong about much, it’s difficult regret later – or in most cases not we can avoid saying “The Sims”, wrong about ink jets, that much later. Actually, it’s not so enough to deal with and about eBay he writes, “I was so things about the future much about predictions but about the present. wrong about this it is not even funny.” understanding the present. that we will regret later – So, it happens to everyone. We can’t avoid it altogether, but we can avoid With some effort I found this tweet or in most cases not that some of the more common pitfalls. He from last year by Michael Bukowski much later. Actually, it’s there, and not be in a state of denial, llo (@mbukowski), “Rough guess: 75% not so much about pre- as large parts – as far as I can see – of Sometimes, some of us are getting of all people mentally live in the 19th the book business are in right now. paid to be the experts Dan Gardner century, 20% in the 20th and the rest dictions but about under- I’m not preaching to the older de- was talking about. More often we W o now,” – this rest being five percent. mographic here. This is a problem are not the experts, but still we need standing the present. rld! We don’t need to talk about the fu- everyone faces all of the time. I still to react to the changes in our sur- ture that much, it’s difficult enough remember the day when I first en- roundings in some way or the other. to deal with the present. I usual- countered the Internet – or more And before we can react, we need to ly get paid to explain not even the hard to overlook that we’re already precisely: the World Wide Web – realize that there actually is some- present to audiences but changes surrounded by quite a lot of the de- when a friend showed it to me. And thing that’s changing, and that’s not that have been around for five to ten velopments that researchers and what I thought was mostly nothing a trivial thing to do. A lot of the time, 34 Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics

wishful thinking – that the innova- parents, “You don’t have anything to tion will go away to make place for talk about any way.” And of course the whatever it was that came before it. I argument was used a lot when it came deal a lot with people who ask hope- to the Internet. As late as 2007, there fully, “But won’t Facebook go away was the book by Andrew Keen, The five years from now?” Yes, in all like- Cult of the Amateur. Andrew Keen lihood it will. But it will not go away wrote of “millions and millions of ex- to make place for the pre-Facebook uberant monkeys […] creating an end- world, it will make room for some- less digital forest of mediocrity”. And thing that to the critics must seem in the same year, Henryk M. Broder even more distasteful than the thing claimed in the Tagesspiegel that the Facebook is right now. Internet was the “leading cause of the infantilization and stultification of 5. It will make no difference. our society”. A little later, you can’t After a while, if you see that you have plausibly deny that the novelty does to stop denying the innovation’s ex- continue to enjoy widespread accep- istence, you can still continue for a tance. It’s not about to disappear and while to dispute its repercussions. it is even commercially successful up In 2000, the tageszeitung wrote that to a point, so it is in principal quite “the Internet won’t change politics”. good, but: Well, looking back to the last elec- tion, maybe they were not that wrong 6. It’s not good enough. after all, but still… For example it’s expensive and, that is always part of the argument, it will 5a. It’s just a toy. become more and more expensive. ! There is this sub-argument that the This is a quote from an essay from innovation is probably only a fan- the 1990s by Hanno Kühnert: “Any- cy gadget with no practical conse- one who uses the Internet regularly quences. Lord Kitchener said that has a noticeably higher phone bill about the first tanks in 1917, “A pretty despite the good value of the connec- mechanical toy.” And if you remem- tions. Costs for individual users will our minds work against us. But since nately, it is quite wrong. This is even is a large body of failed predictions “What the hell is it good for?” ed. There has been some research, the principle users of this new thing ber Kevin Kelly’s statement about continue to rise.” My phone bill in the mind fortunately tends to do that more unfortunate since the book only by optimists. Later I wrote a book and it never turned up. I think it’s called Internet. 3D printing, right now 3D printing is the 1990s was so high that it was ac- in a rather stereotypical way, I think came out now, it is a collection of es- trying to remedy that error; I think it 2. Who wants it anyway? mostly a propaganda argument used mostly about printing toys – and I’ve tually cheaper to share an office with it should be possible to at least find says, and now people assume that this is a much better book than the orig- U.S. president Rutherford Hayes to discredit skeptics. 4. Perhaps, if we just keep our eyes been guilty of using this argument friends and have an Internet landline is my current opinion on this subject inal article was – and it’s also much used it in 1876 when he was shown shut tight enough, it will just go myself: I’ve been complaining about for less money than what my private We need to react to the – which it isn’t. Technology optimists less popular. I wrote the article when one of the first telephones. “That’s 3. Only dubious or privileged mi- away. the boring results of 3D printing for phone bill used to be, and it has gone changes in our surroun- liked that text because it makes skep- I was a “hedgehog” and I wrote the an amazing invention,” he’s quoted, norities want this. There are a lot of historical quotes on several years now, because all the down ever since. tics look stupid. It’s always nice when book as a “fox”. And as it turned “but who would ever want to use In the 90s, the Internet was claimed that topic: “The horse is here to stay, examples are printed toys. But that’s Same with the predictions, also from dings in some way or the things make other people look stu- out, it’s a lot easier to be quoted a lot one of them?” to be the exclusive preserve of white but the automobile is only a novelty still not a good argument. the 1990s, that the Internet was al- other. And before we can pid. It’s very easy to make fun of pre- when you say “hedgehogish” things. There is a slight problem with this men between 18 and 45, and there – a fad.” That was the advice given to ready too slow and would slow down react, we need to realize dictions in general, and I just fell into So for the next part, please keep in quote, which is that it probably nev- wasn’t any chance of it reaching Henry Ford’s lawyer by the president 5b. There’s no money in it. even more. And also that soon no one that trap. You can easily find quite a mind that all of this is wrong. It’s er happened. Luckily, I’m not the broader sections of the population of his bank when he asked whether In 1904, flying pioneer Octave Chan- would be able to find anything using that there actually is so- lot of wrong predictions; it’s become still kind of funny, so I hope you will president of the United States, so no because women were known to be he should invest in the Ford Motor ute predicted that airplanes “will be search engines. A journalist writing mething that’s changing, even easier since you can simply look bear with me. And after that I will try one complained to me about it when less interested in computers and – Company. Charlie Chaplin took the used in sport, but they are not to be about search engines complained in them up on the Internet. And what- to salvage the good parts and make I used it, but in the four years since I I quote from a magazine article by view in 1916 that the cinema was lit- thought of as commercial carriers”. 1996 that “one of these engines an- and that’s not a trivial ever people said on TV in an un- what I hope is a slightly more intel- wrote the original article, I realized Hanno Kühnert – “tend to avoid the tle more than a fad; Thomas Edison swered the request for the word ’In- thing to do. guarded moment ten years ago, it will ligent point. that quite a lot of those predictions impersonal barrenness of the web”. announced in 1922 that “the radio 5c. Its users have nothing to ternet’ with 1881 responses.” Those be there. But the fact that there are never happened. Probably the most And since women did most of the craze will die out in time”; and in discuss. were happy days in ’96! “After the all these wrong predictions in itself II. Commonplaces of famous one in Germany is one about shopping, there was no chance that 1996, Ines Uusman, a Swedish minis- Another variation of this useless- 120th entry, I had no desire to keep some simple heuristics to recognize doesn’t mean anything. Dan Gardner Technology Criticism Bavarian doctors who supposedly in anyone would ever use the Internet ter for transport and communication, ness-argument for communication clicking.” He assumed of course that faulty argumentation. described the difficulties inherent I think there is some sort of criticism the mid-19th century claimed that to buy anything. was still hoping that “the Internet is technologies is usually that their users this exact situation would contin- In 2009, I wrote an article about in determining what percentage of cycle for every new technology, simi- using the railway was too danger- In 1994, Horst Opaschowski, who a fashion” that might pass. don’t have anything to say using that ue until there would be “over 2,000 failed predictions. The German title these predictions is wrong; the short lar to the hype cycle. And reactions to ous because the high speed of the back then was one of Germany’s The fact that a technology reached new medium. Henry David Thoreau hits”. That was pre-Google, and of of this article is the same as the title version of his argument being: For technical innovations, whether in the railway – I think back then around most renowned futurists, predicted, this point on the hype cycle at all wrote in 1854, “We are in great haste course, as soon as Google had solved of the book it was now printed in: historical predictions, it is impossible media or in our private conversations, 30 kilometers per hour – must nec- “The multimedia-ride into the 21st means that it’s very unlikely that to construct a magnetic telegraph that problem, people started to com- “Standardsituationen der Technolo- to do, because you don’t know how follow preconceived paths, mostly: essarily cause insanity. It’s quoted century will look more like a ghost this is going to happen. The fact that from Maine to Texas; but Maine and plain about other problems. I think giekritik”, which roughly translates many predictions there were to begin endlessly, and I would almost have train for a few lost Nintendo kids we’re talking about it, that we’re Texas, it may be, have nothing import- people might have been complaining to “Commonplaces of Technology with and so on. 1. What is it good for? done it myself. Fortunately I didn’t, while the mass of consumers will having this discussion, means it’s far ant to communicate.” The telephone a little less between 1998 and 2000. Critique”. It was a reasonably funny To make things worse, in this article I The example that is usually given is but not because I doubted its au- continue to be TV-crazy.” Also, it was enough advanced on the hype cycle and the Internet have been subject- Also, the innovation is overcompli- article and to this day it’s quoted a lot. only wrote about failed skeptical pre- quoted a lot as well: Robert Lloyd, an thenticity, but because I thought it regularly pointed out that terrorists that it will not simply disappear. And ed to the same accusations. I’m old cated and temperamental. In an ar- I’ve seen people mention it on Face- dictions by pessimists, because back engineer with IBM, greeted the mi- was a little worn out. There’s no evi- and Nazis along with pornographers even if it does die, there is this com- enough to have heard them myself ticle in The London Times in 1895, book only yesterday. But unfortu- then I simply wasn’t aware that there croprocessor in 1968 with the words, dence that this document ever exist- and consumers of pornography were mon misunderstanding – or maybe about the telephone, mostly by my someone considered it “extremely 36 Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics

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doubtful” that the stethoscope would of those signposts. Signposts them- printing press, it was considered how the grade of literary work done from Der Spiegel in 2004 – and to a the first stages of this criticism. go through those most predictable I’ll just list some common arguments ever find widespread circulation, selves are pretty new, they were in- bad manners to give a printed book by reporters would suffer from the diminishing capacity to follow longer When I wrote the article in 2009, the stages of criticism. in no specific order. since it was time-consuming to use troduced in the late 18th century, and as a gift. Until the 1980s, there was a end of typewriters and the use of texts at all. iPhone had gone through the same and caused “a good bit of trouble”. this gave rise to this large number of stigma of rudeness attached to typed computers, “Every kind of dirt or vi- The fact that every new technology stages mobile phones in general went III. Commonplaces of 1. Liberty and equality, guaran- This is also a good example of how cartoons. And since the late 90s we’ve private letters. And there used to be olent motion, the angle of the paper, must go through these stages explains through in the 1990s: People would Technology Optimism teed freedom of speech there are usually – I’ll come to that seen quite a lot of stories about peo- a lot of criticism of mobile phone use the compression of the lines, a raised the unexpected amount of Internet complain that it was only a status It took me a while to even realize that In the 19th century, quite a few peo- later – good reasons behind these ple being let astray by their satellite in public, as if it was any more annoy- C – all that has vanished. Which, as criticism during the last couple of thing and there was no real use to there was such a thing as the failed ple predicted that the railway would less than rational arguments. People navigation devices. I think it is quite ing to have to listen to other people’s we know, tempts us into careless- years. At least it came unexpected to mobile phones. Generally, only peo- prediction by optimists. When I tried necessarily bring democracy and are not being stupid. People are just the same distrust of new-fangled phone conversations as opposed to ness: which of us has not thought at me, because in 1995 I thought that the ple who wanted to show off would to research them, they turned out to free speech to all countries, just be- trying to find some sort of rational- gadgets and the same schadenfreude having to listen to other people’s reg- some point that they have composed discussion we had about the Internet own them. It was the same with be much harder to find. cause it had become easier to travel, ization for something they’re gut about those who think they are par- ular conversations. I think I’m hear- a splendid piece of text purely be- since 2008 would be over and done iPhones when they first came out, I can imagine some reasons why that to take your political ideas and of feeling or “System 1” told them. And ticularly clever and well-equipped ing a little less of these mobile phone cause everything was so clean and with by 1998 – and of course it wasn’t. and by the time I wrote the arti- may be: Of course there might be course your political handbills and in that case we happen to know what and still manage to get it wrong. complaints, but not all owners of pretty to read?” The German author Just at the moment that criticism of cle, the iPhone was at stage 6. I got more pessimistic predictions in gen- books to your neighbors. it was that their gut feeling was tell- After that, it’s high time to think cafés are okay with people using their Peter Härtling explained in 1994 that myself one of those iPhones, but eral – not entirely implausible, es- This has been going on for quite ing them: In the 19th century doctors about what the innovation is doing laptops in public. Sitting around in “experts can spot prose written by a Currently it seems to the contract was so expensive. The pecially in Germany. But I think the some time. One of the last persons were not supposed to use any diag- to the heads of children, adolescents, public with a newspaper or reading poet on a PC by the way it is imper- take about ten to fifteen phone was fine by then but the price basic assumption has to be that prob- to use it was Ronald Reagan in 1989 nostic instruments – it made them women, the lower classes, and all the newspapers in cafés has not caused ceptibly shaped by the fear that the was not. ably there is the same amount of pes- when he said, “The Goliath of total- look like engineers, like dentists. It other easily impressionable citizens: any offense for quite some time, but computer will crash”. And there was years for an innovation And right now I think it’s mostly the simistic and optimistic predictions. itarianism will be brought down by was not the thing to do, so they had to using laptops in public still does in a study in the scientific journal Ac- to go through those self-quantification movement going There might be more failed pessimis- the David of the microchip.” And in look for some sort of argument that 7. Weaker persons can’t handle it. many places. ademic Computing in 1990, claiming most predictable stages through the first stages, as well as tic predictions in theory because the 1997, Nicholas Negroponte of MIT’s would enable them not to use this “Weaker persons” of course in that that the graphic user interface of the Google Glass. In yesterday’s Frank- optimists might have a better track Media Lab said that after using the new thing that would detract from case means: Weaker than I am. Lots 9. It will change our thinking, writ- Apple Macintosh caused students of criticism. furter Allgemeine Zeitung, there was record, but I don’t think that’s true Internet, children would not know their status as doctors. of medical or psychological studies ing or reading for the worse. working on these computers to make an article about Google Glass that either. what nationalism is. And finally, the innovation of course are hauled in to prove a fallen stan- For critics around 1870, the postcard more spelling mistakes, to write uses most of the early stage argu- I think most likely this is an artifact is not 100 percent reliable. There is dard of some kind or posit a correla- was the end of letter-writing. The more carelessly, to use simpler sen- the World Wide Web, created in 1994, ments. It says that only idiots would caused by the fact that I did all my re- 2. Universal peace a quite interesting book, Wegzeiger tion with the technology that is cur- American Newspaper Publishers As- tence structures and a more childlike was coming to an end, various Inter- voluntarily wear such a stupid thing, search on the Internet, and technol- This is a very enduring and very pop- (engl.: “Signposts”) by the folklorist rently causing a stir. sociation in 1897 discussed whether vocabulary than other students who net-based innovations, such as Twit- and that maybe people will get used ogy optimists tend to publish on the ular argument. There was this ques- Martin Scharfe. He collected quite a typewriters lower the literary grade were using PCs, which back then had ter and Facebook, were entering the to it, “but still: I just don’t see the Internet, while the skeptics tend not tion after Kevin Kelly’s talk, that there lot of reports and cartoons about il- 8. Bad manners of work done by reporters. And in no graphical user interface. And the first stages. And of course, as soon as point.” Which is of course the “What to do so. So maybe I was just looking seemed to be an understanding in legible signposts and poor travelers As soon as the technology is well-es- 2002, a journalist in the Neue Zürich- most recent variant of this argument people have become used to social the hell is it good for?”-argument. in the wrong place. Anyway, I was military circles that due to the Inter- that are being sent in the wrong di- tablished, we come to the questions er Zeitung compared the sound of is that PowerPoint leads to “shal- media, there will be other horrible in- Currently it seems to take about ten unable to find enough material to net and digitalization, there wouldn’t rection and are getting lost because of etiquette. In the early days of the typewriters to music and complained lowness of thought” – this is a quote novations and those will go through to fifteen years for an innovation to construct the same kind of cycle, so be any more wars. This is quite old. 38 Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics

In 1858, a British ambassador pre- 5. End of crime We tend to get stuck in our routines, and we try to make up dicted that the telegraph would bring In the book Die Welt in 100 Jahren about world peace. The inventor of there is an article by Robert Sloss for our lack of understanding of our surroundings by using the Maxim machine gun Hiram Max- about the “wireless century”, and the im predicted that the machine gun author claims that the wireless cen- lazy, commonplace arguments. If you make it a habit to try would make war impossible, which tury will be the end of most if not all quite obviously it didn’t. Alfred No- crime. The idea back then was that things, even if they feel useless or annoying, and if you do not bel said, “My dynamite will sooner wirelessly transferring pictures of actively keep your relatives and your coworkers from lead to peace than a thousand world criminals to other cities would deter conventions. As soon as men will find people from committing any crimes trying these things, it helps. that in one instant, whole armies can at all. This is a very familiar argu- be utterly destroyed, they surely will ment, and right now we keep hearing abide by golden peace.” Lots of peo- it in the context of video surveillance. ple used it after that; Jules Verne said You might even experiment for the sake of experiment: the same about the submarine; Gug- 6. Overcoming death lielmo Marconi said the same abut Quite surprisingly, this keeps crop- Move small things around. People usually hate larger the radio; Henry Ford said it about ping up: Overcoming death. I have the car, because the car makes it eas- this quote from 1895 by a Paris jour- changes, especially in companies where change is usually ier to travel, so people will mix more nalist after seeing one of the first and see that their neighbors are basi- films ever, who wrote, “When these forced on them. But low-level change might just work. cally nice people; Thomas Hutchin- gadgets [meaning film cameras] are son said it for the same reasons about in the hands of the public, when any- And that will make it far more likely for you to stumble TV in 1946; Lyndon B. Johnson said one can photograph the ones who are across your equivalent to the Scrabble app. it about the space program; Britain’s dear to them, not just in their immo- prime minister Gordon Brown said bile form, but with movement, action, in 2009 that we couldn’t have geno- familiar gestures and their words out cide like the one in Rwanda again be- of their mouths, then death will be no cause “information would come out longer absolute, final.” far more quickly about what is actu- The modern version of this idea right ally going on and the public opinion now is the idea that people will be would grow to the point where ac- able to upload their brain to the in- tion would need to be taken.” ternet and thus become immortal. statements in themselves may not of- ing or career-maintaining maneuver as much time as we used to do. I don’t though washing hands will help you anything useful about them. It’s not also at the same time, and for a long fer any answers, they can at least lead that is going on. know if you remember the movie as well. If you work in any profession enough to read about current events, time before that, she kept complain- 3. Learning will be easy There is something to be learned us to interesting questions ­– ques- It’s tempting to blame everything on Ratatouille; there is this food critic where understanding current events and it’s not enough to watch other ing that her children and grandchil- Thomas Edison predicted in 1922 from these predictions. Of course tions that are about how to deal with age. I read an article about penguins that says, “The new needs friends,” and coping with change is important people using whatever it is that you dren spend their days glued to the that the motion picture will “revolu- that’s what I thought in 2009, but change, how to deal with new tech- using an iPad to play a game for cats and it’s okay if these friends are – and personally I think that includes don’t like. Just accumulating infor- computer. Well, she’s no longer com- tionize our educational system,” and back then I thought that what can be nologies. Every time we use one of – I think you have to catch a little fish critical, but they do need to have an all professions, but it certainly in- mation is usually not enough for us. plaining now. that “in a few years it will supplant learned from these predictions is that those statements, every time we catch or mouse. And penguins like to play open mind. cludes all the professions of the peo- There is a chapter in Kevin Kelly’s Strangely, the hook for her was play- largely, if not entirely, the use of text- you should not make any skeptical ourselves doing it, we are saying, “I’m that, although, as the article says, it’s ple who are here today – I think you book What Technology Wants on the ing Scrabble. We always used to do books.” There is another quote, this predictions because they would al- helpless. I don’t know what’s going only the young penguins that like You should make it your should make it your habit to try new Amish, and even the Amish evaluate that a lot twenty years ago, and for one from 1915 by D.W. Griffith in The ways turn out wrong. But people back on. I don’t know what to make of this playing it. The old penguins just ig- habit to try new techno- technologies or new strategies, even new things by experience instead of her to discover that she could use New York Times: “The time will come, then were no stupider than they are change. I have a gut feeling that it is nore the iPad. if they look stupid and useless to you. by theory. And it doesn’t mean that the iPad to play against her chil- and in less than ten years, when the now. The same things that made them wrong, and I’m fishing for arguments I think humans are not quite like logies or new strategies, Which they will. It’s like washing you should or even can force yourself dren online revived this tradition for children in the public schools will say funny things about their present that help me make a more rational penguins in that regard. I think that even if they look stupid your hands in a hospital: It’s annoy- to use something you hate. Every tool her. And everything else followed be taught practically everything by make us say funny things about ours. point.” And that in itself is a useful age is secondary, or at least I hope it and useless to you. ing, you don’t want to do it, and the can be used in a lot of ways. There is from that. It sounds trivial – Scrab- moving pictures [...] You will merely I have personally used just about ev- thing to know: That as soon as you is, because this is a career-maintain- worst thing about it is that you have always some aspect, some way of us- ble, that’s not much – but that made seat yourself at a properly adjusted ery argument on these two lists and I find yourself using one of those argu- ing maneuver for me to claim that to do it over and over again; doing it ing a new tool, a new gadget, a new her use instant messaging from the window, in a scientifically prepared suppose so have most of you. I might ments, you know that you are on to age can’t be the limiting factor here. once isn’t enough. But you have to do strategy, that will appeal even to you, Scrabble app, too. She will instant- room, press the button, and actually not have used the one about death, something interesting there – though But Kevin Kelly is a good example, V. Rules of Mental Hygiene it because neglecting that simple step that will turn out to be useful and ly fire up Skype to complain if she see what happened.” I’m not quite sure about that. the argument in itself is wrong. because he’s not quite the youngest In hospitals, there is a whole system will compromise all the other work interesting, and the rest will follow doesn’t like the Scrabble-word I Dan Gardner has already named a penguin in the room, and that shows of rules, strategies and habits that by you’re doing. from that hook. If you’re patient and played. She refused to use Skype for 4. End of scarcity IV. What to Learn from few of the more interesting reasons pretty well that what counts is your themselves don’t cure any diseases. This sounds easier than it is, because keep searching for that hook, you years, but it was very easy once she Most quotes about this are from the False Predictions why the mind doesn’t work too well motivation to stay ahead of things You need to use sterile equipment, right now you’re probably thinking will find that it is there. found out what it was for. And she 1950s about the fact that energy in Now, a couple of years after the orig- when it comes to interpreting and or at least in touch with the present. you need to wash your hands, you of the one or two new things you’ve realized, I think, that the internet is the future was going to be free. “All inal publication, I think our best dealing with these changes. I would While we are young, we are very mo- need to follow procedures, or you will tried in the last year. Don’t do that. My mother has had an iPad for about actually about being social. I must power (electric, atomic, solar) is like- option to make sense of these state- like to add some more: Of course tivated to understand the present be- be making things worse. And I think Try to think about the things that you six months now. She was never very have told her that a million times, ly to be virtually costless” - this is ments is to regard them as some sort there is wishful thinking for the posi- cause we lack money, we lack social there should be similar rules for com- were disinclined to try, the things interested in technology or the In- but of course she didn’t listen to me. from the 50s by Henry Luce, founder of indicator, some little blinking light tive changes, and there is the unwill- status and we need every foothold panies or even for dealing with the that you told other people you would ternet, and for about the first three She had to find it out for herself. I of TIME magazine. The mathema- saying, “There is something interest- ingness to face change or to change that we can get. As soon as we obtain contents of your own mind. So I’m never try because they were useless, months that she owned an iPad, she didn’t get the message through, but tician John von Neumann said it as ing going on here.” our own habits for the negative state- some moderate degree of success, we going to propose three of those rules: stupid or annoying, or they looked was complaining that she didn’t the Scrabble app did. well at about the same time, “A few Whenever someone uses one of these ments. And in both cases, this is not get lazy and it’s less important to us unnecessarily complicated to you. know what to use it for. “It’s nice,” Of course now it’s my father who’s decades hence energy may be free – arguments, they are trying to deal entirely irrational. I think in a lot of to actually understand in detail what 1. Wash hands We aren’t rational animals. We must she said, “but I’m not quite sure what complaining, because she instantly just like the unmetered air.” with very old problems, and while the cases it is a quite valid career-build- is going on, so we simply don’t invest This is of course metaphorical, even experience things in order to find out I’m actually going to do with it.” And acquired all the obnoxious habits my 40 Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics Kathrin Passig I Can’t Believe It’s Not the Future – Technodreams and Technopanics friends and I went through five years indicator that the argument will not ago. She will use it at lunch even help you understand what’s going on. though there are people around, and And you should be especially wary if what’s worse: She keeps telling peo- you find yourself using one of those ple using PCs that an Apple is much arguments from my list. better and asking why they even Of course, every single one of those bothered wasting their time with arguments might be true, and in fact these ugly and clunky machines. Of most of them probably are. When the course everyone hates that. I knew printing press was new, people said it that, but she’s just finding it out right would cause wars and it would cause now. My father hates it. people to turn their backs on religion, By the way, have you noticed how the both of which it did. So the skeptics mobile phone ringtone – which was had it right. And the optimists get it very annoying when used by younger right as well. Every once in a while, people ten, fifteen years ago – now is scarcity really does end. For exam- only used in an annoying way by se- ple at least in First World Countries, nior citizens on trains? Everyone has there hasn’t been a problem with the their mobile phone set on vibration availability of food in a long time. For or they’re looking at it all the time our ancestors, even one or two centu- anyway, so they see when it’s ringing. ries ago, this must have seemed like But every time there’s a really loud an impossible dream, not to have any and annoying ringtone, it invariably famines anymore. But still, you’re not belongs to someone who is about 80 helping the discussion by using these years old. I think that might be the arguments, though every once in a topic for a different article: “The sev- while you might luckily find the case en stages of impoliteness in technol- where it’s actually true. ogy adoption.” It’s like evolution: we Last week, I met a university profes- have to go through all these stages in sor who was just working on a book order to leave them behind us. about why printed books are better than eBooks and why they will al- 2. Don’t voice an opinion on ways be superior to eBooks, for a any new technology you haven’t lot of reasons. All of his arguments been so horribly wrong, they will make it easy to experiment. We tend even tried. were more or less taken from my list still deny everything. So maybe it is to get stuck in our routines, and we And by “tried” I mean: You have giv- of pessimistic predictions, and they okay to write it down... try to make up for our lack of under- en it the chance to integrate itself sounded a lot like after-the-fact ra- standing of our surroundings by us- into your life, not just glanced at it in tionalizations of his own habits and 3. Provide a pile of leaves ing lazy, commonplace arguments. If passing or seen someone else using preferences. I don’t think he had By “pile of leaves” of course I mean you make it a habit to try things, even it or used it for two day. Unless you even tried reading an eBook more an environment that makes it easy if they feel useless or annoying, and are a journalist or an expert, shut- than once or twice. for you or your company to try out if you do not actively keep your rel- ting up on the subject of a gadget or A useful addendum to this rule num- atives and your coworkers from try- a technology is usually a very valid Create an environment ing these things, it helps. You might option. You can simply not say any- If you must have an that makes it easy for you even experiment for the sake of ex- thing about it. And this, too, is a mat- opinion about things you periment: Move small things around. ter of simple mental hygiene. If you or your company to try People usually hate larger chang- routinely dismiss things you’ve never have never really tried, at out more things. es, especially in companies where tried, you encourage sloppy thinking. least do not put it down change is usually forced on them. But You encourage it in yourself and also low-level change might just work. in you friends and coworkers. in writing. You want to And that will make it far more likely You don’t have to be a curious early assure deniability. more things. It’s like having a hedge- for you to stumble across your equiv- adopter, you don’t have to be novel- hog in your garden. Most people alent to the Scrabble app. ty-seeking, you don’t even have to appreciate having them. You don’t talk like someone who is. It’s enough have to catch them and carry them to to avoid talking like a person who is ber 2 might be: If you must have an your house if you want to have them utterly disinterested in the present. opinion about things you have nev- living in your garden. It’s difficult All change is complex and, as Dan er really tried, at least do not put it finding one, it’s unpleasant to carry Gardner said, we need to be comfort- down in writing. You want to assure it, and it will probably decide that able with that complexity. deniability. And as Philip Tetlock’s it doesn’t want to stay anyway. But research shows, if we do not put our if you provide a hedgehog-friendly The arguments I quoted are very sim- bad predictions down in writing, we environment, they will come. And ple arguments. If you find yourself very easily forget them. But even if for hedgehogs, that means a pile of using one of those simplistic argu- we put them down in writing: If you leaves. For your own ability to adapt ments in favor of or against some in- show people later what they wrote to the present, to deal with the pres- novation, this is in itself a pretty good and ask them how they could have ent, this means that you need to 42 Bibliography

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