Tams CHANGE: THE CURRENT STATE OF 'i'Hi DEBATE IN OLD WORLD

Malcolm: H. Wiener*

Questions of chronological contemporaneity are at Indeed, even with the broad disciplines of Old World the heart of current discussions of the interaction and linguistics, an information explosion and reciprocal influence between the early civiliza- has resulted in many cases in increasing specializa- tions of the Mediterranean world. In order to consid- tion and concomitant difficulties in communication er such interactions, whether in the broad terms of across geographic and material-based specializations. world systems theory and core-periphery analysis or Communication shows signs of improvement, howev- with respect to more precise modalities of interao- er, as archaeometry develops as a major subdiscipline Lion, it is necessary to establish what phase of Civi- and more students are trained. in archaeological sci- lization A was in contact with what phase of Civi- ence.. €rowing sophistication in science among lization 13. No wonder, then, that chronology exercis- archaeologists is accompanied, however, by growing es its fascination. However, as Kenneth Kitchen has complexity and the arrival of information, some of observed, chronology is not an academic discipline potential critical chronological importance, from new but a disease (Kitchen, pers. comm. of 1 February and unfamiliar sources and sciences. 2003, for which I am most grateful), l would say, an addiction, and indeed once one is hooked, its is EGYPTIAN , TEVIS Sic INTERCONNECTIONS hard to recover, whatever the cost to the historical It seems appropriate to begin a synopsis of the cur- work for which the chronological information was ini- rent, state of the debate in Old World chronology tially sought. Moreover, one pursues chronology with the first of the sciences harnessed to the task, knowing that whatever is said may be obsolete by the astronomy, and in particular the astronomical dates it is published. from Egypt.. These of course come in two forms: Chronological progress with respect to the. ancient Sothic dates, i.e., observations of the first rising of Mediterranean civilizations of the third and second the dog star , and lunar dates, based in Egypt millennia B.C. requires bridging the gap between the on the day when the crescent moon is no longer visi- "two cultures", scientific. and humanistic, described ble (unlike Babylonia where lunar dates are measured half a century ago by the. British scientist, novelist from the. first visibility of the new moon), A recent, and distinguished civil servant Snow. According paper by the late Patrick O'Mara casts doubt on the to Snow. the two cultures existed in a state of mutu- reliability of the bash', critical assertion of Censori- al disdain and in almost, total ignorance of the. bask, nus, an Egyptian third century A.D. Roman gram- premises of the other (SNOW 191i9; 1067; see also marian, who reported that a of' Sothis 'AMEX 2003). In Old World archaeology and ancient; had occurred on Egyptian civil new 's day in the problem has been particularly acute at A.D. 139. O'Mara notes that. the date asserted was , with some practitioners trained in art history, the birthday of Censorinus' great patron and that, classics and Near Eastern or Egyptian studies lack- uniquely in this case. Censorious gave no data to sup- ing basic, knowledge of the strengths and limitations port his statement. O'Mara, accepts another text, the of the relevant sciences or of statistics. Conversely, Canopus Decree, but: argues that the resultant Sothic many scientists working on archaeological material dates. can vary by twelve (O'MARA 2003). The are unable to gauge the strengths or partial limita- Sothic question is primarily relevant to Mid- tions of Egyptian and Near Eastern text-based dat- dle Kingdom Egypt, because of the importance of ing, or the current, state of understanding of Egypt- the date proposed by PARKER, (1050) of 1872 B.C. for ian astronomy, or the reliability of data and inter- a heliacal rising of Sirius recorded on a particular pretations from sciences other than their own. date. in the seventh year of Senwosret TI.T. R. 'Krauss

• Institute for Aegean Prehistory 20 Malcolm H. Wiener

believes that the Parker date is untenable because the 1-1.3; 2002. 9). This result fits independently-derived attributions of the 1.1!alm lunar dates on which Assyrian[13abylonian regnal dates considered accu- Parker based his computations were incorrect and rate to within about. a decade back to 1400 B.C.. that on the basis of lunar dates the seventh year of which are securely connected to Senwosret III falls in 1831-30 B.C. Krauss' lunar cal- through correspondence between Egyptian and Near culations imply an end date for the Twelfth Dynasty Eastern rulers (1K.Nuirrzox 1915; MouAN 1.002; of 1700-59 B.C. (F.....RAU7;ti, this volume). RAINEY 1978; COHEN and WESTBROOK 2000; Di-Ex- Lunar dates remain controversial in some, utcH and Lcutrrz 1985; Rom, and N. .EWGROSB 1988; respects. Calculation of crescent visibility is difficult CAMPBELL 1964.; A1,111110111' 1.975). The prevailing Near because of the complexity of the moon's orbit and Eastern. chronology, as set forth by Brinkman, posit- the requirement of extreme accuracy - Kepler ing an eight-year overlap between the reigns of Nin- thought the computation of the exact time. of con- urta-apil-Ekur of Assur and Nieli-Shipak of Babylon junction impossible -- and because of the diffieulty of (BRINKmAx 1072, 272-273: 1979, 31...33) has recently developing impartial criteria of visibility at various. received confirmation through the discovery at Assur possible locations. R.A. Wells argues that the original of tablets containing correspondence between these. Egyptian lunar observations yield so large a number rulers (FRAID1 n.d.; Brinkman, pers. comm.). The of alternative readings and dates that, no determi- Kitchen schema is also consistent with the date of nate catendrical system can bedemonstrated. Recent 925/20 B.C. proposed by Thiele half a century ago for experimental archaeology shows that it is difficult to the invasion by Shishak in the fifth year of Rehaboam obtain agreement among observers as to the day on reported in the Hebrew Bible (TarnE 198:3), a date which the old lunar crescent is no longer visible which cannot be moved by more than about a decade (WELLS 2002; 1092; SPALANttEn 1.992a). R. KRAUSS given the secure- date of 853 B.C. in the Assyrian (this volume.) remarks that the experiments in ques- annals fur the. battle of gargar during the. reign of tion did not involve experienced professional Ahab. R. Krauss believes that Egyptian lunar obser- observers as would likely have been the ease in vations independently establish 926/25 B.C. as the , but also notes that dust. storms or date of the invasion by Shishak/Shoshenq I as set. overcast skies can make observations difficult., par- forth in his contribution to this volume.. ticularly at- certain times of the year. Because. the lunar date closest to 1270-79 B.C. for R. Krauss believes, however, that-1479 B.C. can be the accession of Ramses H. was already believed to be established as the precise year of the accession of 1279 B.C. on the earlier analyses of Krauss, von Tuthmosis III with a high degree of probability. He Beckerath and Hornung. Kitchen reasoned that one. argues that it is possible in almost all cases to elimi- or more pharaohs or high priests might have ruled or nate many of the alternative interpretations of served slightly longer than their last known year.. He recorded lunar sightings stressed by Wells by virtue accordingly accepted 1279 B.C. for the accession of of their incompatibility with historical and other Ramses TI, and hence 1479 B.C. for the accession of data at various points in the chain of dates which the Tuthmosis III via. a series of texts covering the inter- discarded alternative readings would require vening two centuries. These dates thus form the. basis (KRAttss, this volume). Confirmation is found in a of the current standard, widely accepted Egyptian historical. chain buttressed by astronomical observa- Chronology for the New Kingdom (I.i.-rfettEN 1987; tions from various reigns which R. Krauss believes 1002; 1995; 1996. 1-13; 2002). if the lunar dates requires an accession date between 1479-70 B.C. for could no longer be maintained as suggested by R.A. Tuthmosis III on independent grounds (I am most Wells, then. it would seem preferable to cite the criti- grateful to R. Krauss for making his cogent analysis cal Tuthmosis T.T.I accession date as e. .1475 B.C., available to me prior to publication). rather than as 1479 B.C. (K. Kitchen has kindly If, however, astronomical. uncertainty could be informed me that he concurs with this suggestion in shown to exist, how significant a difference would it a pers. comm. of 25 February 2003,. for which I am make for Egyptian absolute. chronology, particularly most grateful). The difference is accordingly minor. for the. New Kingdom? Recall that without reference It is, however, far from clear that any change is nec- to astronomy K. Kitchen, by adding the last known essary, for if R. Krauss is correct, then 1479 B.C. regnal years of rulers and analyzing other data, was remains the exact year for the accession of Tuthmo- able to affirm an accession date fr:pr Ramses IT not sis III and hence constitutes the earliest, exact. year later than 1.270 B.C. at the very latest, but more like- date for any civilization at, the present time. (Astron- ly between 1.2.74 and 1279 B.C. (KrrettEN 1.987; 1.009, omy apart, the earliest certain annual date estab- Times Change: The Current State of the Debate in Old World Chronology 27

fished via continuous written records is the. year 911 suk near the Cilician Gates in 1650 +4/-7 B.C. (MAN- TIC. from the Assyrian annals.) Both K. Kitchen and NIN(i et al. 2001). A date between 1.650 and 1643 B.C. B. Krauss concur that if the accession year of Tath- for the eruption is consistent with both claims. mosis HI is 1479 B.C., then texts and inscriptions While the date of the particles in the Greenland suggest. c. 1539 B.C. as the most likely date for the core seems reasonably secure, the Theran origin pro- accession of Ahmose. and the. beginning of the New posed for these glass shards is not. Only volcanic Kingdom. The. conquest of and the expulsion. shards. no larger than a few microns are light enough to of the Hyksos from Egypt between the eleventh and reach Greenland from Thera beibre falling out of the twenty-second :year of Ahmose, but more. likely clos- stratosphere, but such minute particles are challenging er to the latter (131.E.T.A.K 1996, 81; BOURRIAC 1.997, to source chemically with sufficient precision to distin- 159) would thus occur between 1528 and 1.517 B.C., guish between similar eruptions, although. it. is possible followed by the first campaign of Ahmose in the Near to exclude clearly dissimilar sources. (See lixamER rsi East, including his three-year siege of the important al. 2003; KEENAN 2003; PEARCE et al. 2004.) site of Sharuhen. The appearance of considerable It is clear from the. papers cited that the terms of numbers of New Kingdom artifacts in the Near East discussion have moved considerably since the. presen- presumably follows these events in time. (see below). tation of the: "Extended Abstract" by HA3131:Ett el al. (2001) at the 2001 SCIEM EuroConference, which ICE-CORE DATING should. not be regarded as surprising given the enor- Let us now consider proposals for dating the Aegean mous challenge presented by the task. Proponents of Bronze Age by recent scientific observations, begin- the identification of the. Greenland glass shards as ning with the argument frorn the Greenland ice cores. Theran no longer believe that similarity in the bulk Work at the frontier of science with respect to the- elements supports the preposition, or that a similar difficult extraction of the cores, the counting of their europium anomaly exists in the Theran and. Green- annual. laminations, and the chemical analysis of land shards, but rather that the abundances of the glass shards, each much smaller than the width of the. remaining rare earth elements., with the exception of human hair, has led Hammer et al. to propose that strontium, are sufficiently similar to constitute com- the eruption of Thera, in the mature-to-final phase of pelling evidence 'lbr Thera as tire source of the Green- Late Minoan IA, can be dated. to 1645. ±4 B.C. land shards (HammEit e1. al. 2001; 2003). D.T. Keenan (HA3uttln c al. 2001; 2003). While some have contends, however, that the similarities are no greater expressed surprise that ice-core. dating could be so than those between the Greenland shards and tephra precise, Hammer and. Clausen note that the layers from the eruption of Tobain Indonesia in 75,000 B.P. have been counted separately by themselves and two with respect to the twelve Toba. rare earth elements students, and that the counting was repeated years tested, and moreover, that differences in composition later with the same results (liamatER, pers. comm.). in four of the bulk elements between the Greenland Moreover, the ice-core record contained shards iden- and Theran shards preclude Thera as a likely source tified as coming from the eruption of Vesuvius in (Keenan, pers, comm. with accompanying data, for A.D. 79 in an ice-core lamination counted. to be. on ly which I am most grateful; now see KEENAN 2003. For one year away from the known date. The putative the. Toba- eruption,. see PEARCE et al. 1999). The Daw- one-year error A.D. 79, the actual year of the erup- son eruption in Alaska about 25,001) years ago also tion, rather than A.D. SO, when the tephra should produced very similar tephra (PEARcE et al. 2003; have reached Greenland, in Hammer's view - is K.P.ENAN 2003). Indeed, the. empirical evidence sug- attributed by Hammer to a. difficult-to-read ice-core gests that massive rhyolitic mantle-so.urced eruptions lamination in the year A.D. 1936, when one year tend in general to produce tephra with similar rare could be read as two (Hammer, pers. coinin. of 2.1 earth element- compositions (KEENAN 2003). March 2001, for which I am most grateful). Accord- Pa'ancE et al. {2004) after detailed study also ingly, it appears that the 1645 ± 4 T3.C. date range for declare that the. dissimilarity in chemical constituents the glass shards in question is likely to be correct. shows that the Theran eruption was not the source of Leading proponents of the Aegean Long Chronology the Greenland shards. Indeed, Pearce-et al. go further, at one point advocated combining this date range concluding that- not Thera but Aniakchak in the with the dates resulting from a proposed upward Aleutian Chain, which experienced a mid-second mil- shift of 22 ±41-7 years in the dates for the Anatolian lennium B.C. eruption, is the, highly likely source of -floating tree-ring chronology (see below) which would the Greenland shards on the basis of extremely close place. the growth spurt. evident, in the logs from Por- similarity of chemical composition (see also WIENER 28 Imlin H.. Wiener

2003, V75476, n. 65; .for Aniakchak see BEGET el aL apart, just as in the oaks of Ireland and England 1.002). $. Manning has kindly informed me that in where the events are dated to c. 1628 and 1159 B.C., light of the recent analysis he regards the ice-core has been withdrawn in light, of subsequent .research data as irrelevant to the date of the Theran eruption (MANNING 1999, 313-314; 2004b; MANNING el al. (pers. for which I. am most grateful; see. MAN- 2001; RENFREW 1996). The- event previously placed NING, this volume; RAMSEY et al. 2004). at e. 1159 B.C. has not been found in logs subse- A program of analysis of all glass shards in the quently examined, indicating that the event may ice. core record for the period between 1650 and 1500 have been local. Moreover, radiocarbon. measure- B.O. would be desirable, but even a massive eruption ments of the Anatolian juniper sequence by Man- would not necessarily leave an acidity signal on every ning, Kromer, Kuniholm and Newton against the square meter of Greenland (WIENER 2003; Ronocic. European oak-based INTCAL98 calibration curve 2000 and pers. comm., fbr which I am most grateful; determinations and against, their own measure- RomeK. and FREE 1905). ments of German oak for the seventeenth and six- teenth centuries B.C. led to the conclusion that a better fit is obtainable by shifting the Anatolian The potential contribution of dendrochronology to floating sequence back 22 +4/--7 years, as described Old World chronology is evident. Because of the cen- above. The adjustment would shift the. previously tury-long history of data collection and analysis in proposed date for the major growth spurt experi- the southwest United States, excavators of Native- enced by all sixty-one of the Porsuk trees from the A.merican. sites sometimes know the exact year each year 1.628 B.C. to 1650 +4/-7 B.O. (MANNINO et al. room in a building and each building, at a site was 2001). The result, would thus lit the proposed date constructed. It has even been possible in some for the appearance of the glass shards in the Green- instances to determine which communities. shared land (whose relevance to the Theran erup- common logging areas, and which did not (NAsit tion, however, is now widely debated, even by its 2000, 60-82). In England, Ireland and Germany, former proponents, as noted above.), while removing trees with recognizable overlapping years because of the Anatolian floating chronology from the 1628 similar weather patterns enable us to construct con- B.C. date for a major climate event reflected in tree tinuous back to the Neolithic. in the rings in the pines of California and the oaks of Ger- Near East and Aegean the sequence is not yet com- many, Ireland and England, previously identified plete, due in part to gaps during the Classical and with the Theran eruption by proponents of the particularly during the Roman Empire, when the Aegean Long Chronology, but now also deemed by wood used was imported from the entire Roman most to be. irrelevant (MANNING and SEWELL 2002; world from the. Baltic to the Levant and hence often MANNING, this vol u m el . DOTI d rooll rono ogical reflects climate patterns that cannot be compared. A research thus far has revealed no indication of a sig- "floating chronology" has been constructed, however, nifieant growth anomaly in the trees of California, that forms a continuous sequence from the twenty- Ireland, England or Germany around 1050-40 B.O. seventh to the seventh century B.O., incorporating at- While the. Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) ice its core a 1,028-year sequence of juniper logs from core witnesses a. volcanic event around 1626 B..C., Gordion and including the juniper from Porsuk pre- the signal i.s clearly much less pronounced than the viously mentioned. The absolute dates of the floating 1645 ±4 B.C. event (CLAUSEN el al. 1007). It should chronology are now fixed in all likelihood to within be noted., however, that the magnitude of an acidity +8/..-10 years, as established by a comparison between spike is only loosely correlated to the Volcanic fifty-two de.eadal radiocarbon determinations from Explosivity Index (VEI) of the eruption causing the A.natolian junipers and the 1.998 international the spike (KEENAN forthcoming, table 1). Among calibration curve. (INTCAL98) which is based on the other factors which influence the magnitude are measurements of German and Irish oak. and by the the sulfur content of the eruption, the prevailing fact that component, parts of the Anatolian sequence eirculation conditions in the stratosphere and end in closely dated historical contexts at Gordion in atmosphere, and the. location of the eruption Phrygia and particularly at Ayanis in Urartu (NEW- (Ronoc-E. 2000). Similarly, it. now appears doubtful TON and KUNIROLAI 2004). that any of the B.C. events visible in the Irish oaks A prior suggestion that the floating chronology are the. result of volcano-induced weather anomalies could be anchored absolutely by the appearance in (MANNING and SEwELL 2002; Manning, pers. comm. the Anatolian. sequence of tree-ring events 460 years of 17 February 2003). 'Times Change: The Current State of the Debate in Old World Chronology 9.9

As to the growth spurt in the Porsuk trees now Director T. T. SWETNAM of 7 June 2004) The placed at 1.050 +4/-7 B.C., however, Kuniholin absence of any such indication during the period argues that whatever the effects of the Theran favored by advocates of the Aegean Short Chronol- eruption elsewhere, the trees used at Porsuk, 820. ogy for the Theran eruption was once a major tenet km. downwind of Thera, would probably have. of the Long Chronology position, but further responded to the additional moisture resulting from research and reflection have. led to reconsideration rainstorms caused by the eruption. The local effects of the value of this negative dendrochronological of non-local eruptions can vary significantly, how- evidence. It is now well understood that, many fac- ever. The logs of Gordion, from a semi-arid zone in tors other than the degree of explosivity affect Anatolia where additional moisture might be whether an eruption is represented in the tree-ring expected to have a significant effect, do not show record. These include the proximity of the volcano, any unusual effect near this date (KUN1 [twat et al. the amount of aerosol released, its sulfur content, 1996. 780-782; Kuniholm and Newton, pers. Comm. prevailing circulation conditions in the stratosphere of 19 November 2002, for which I am most grate- and atmosphere, offsetting or reinforoing weather ful). Of course the identification of the Aniakehak factors such as El Nino or La Nifia conditions, the eruption as the source of the glass shards in the time of year in relation to the growing season of the Greenland ice core at 1645.. ±4 B.C. suggests the pas- trees in question, whether the trees exist. in a robust sibility that the Porsuk log growth spurt of 1.650 or marginal environment with respect to tempera- +4/-7 13.0., if caused by a weather-l'oreing volcanic ture and water, and the age and condition of the event, may possibly be attributable to this. Alaskan trees at the time of the event (CRArrA.N 2002; JACO- eruption also. Recent work on the Porsuk dating, BI' 2.002; BM:MIT-IN 1906; IRWIN and Battms 1080; however, suggests that there may he no overlap in ALLARD el al. 1991). Conversely, many con-volcanic: dates (1.653-50 B.C. best dates for Porsuk anomaly, climate and weather related factors,, including 1645 ±4 B.C. for Aniakehak [Kuniholm, pers. highly local conditions, can cause, growth spurts or Comm.; Manning, pers. comm.]). It is particularly interruptions in trees. worth noting that. the 'raising of the Porsuk logs' last ring dates to 1573 +49--7 B.C. (pursuant. to the revised radiocarborithistorieal analysis discussed Recent years have seen major progress in the sci- above) also removes the Porsuk evidence from the ence and art of radiocarbon dating. Improved tech- argument of silence against a post-1570 B.C. erup- niques of measurement at high precision laborato- tion of Thera consistent with the Aegean Short ries, including lengthened counting periods at accel- Chronology. erator mass spectrometry facilities and periods of To date no indication of a growth anomaly possi- measurement of up to ten days at radiometric mea- bly related to a volcanic eruption has been reported surement laboratories where feasible and affordable, in the trees of Ireland, England, Germany or Cali- more stringent pretreatment protocols, and fornia for the. period 1570-1470 13.C. (The initial Cal- increased. cooperation between laboratories to ifornia bristlecone pine database was severely limit- reduce inter-lab measurement discrepancies, have ed with respect to the number of trees and extent of all contributed to a narrowing of proposed date area examined for the relevant period [LAMARCiTE ranges published, which. after calibration combine and IlitisettnoECK 19841. Work now underway at statistical and judgmental factors (Known et al. the University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring 2001, 2530; see in general ScOTT 2003, esp. 287; Research seeks to expand the database with respect: MANNING 2004a; forthcoming).' Within the past to the period 1675-1450 B.C. [unpublished report of decade, however, high precision laboratories have

The "State of Research" is well described by 0. CicinieKJ ct method is the much greater sensitivity of the in INISUFV- el. (200:3, 102): "In order to measure radiocarbon ages it is Men t. 1111 AM.S the radiocarbon atoms are directly detected necessary to fi nd the amount of radiocarbon in a- sample. instead of waiting for them to decay. physical sample. This can h e, achieved either by measuring the radioactivity SiZVS required are typically 1000 times smaller, allowing of the sample (the conventional beta-counting method) or multi greater choice of samples -arid enabling very selective by directly counting the radiocarbon atoms using a method chemical pre-treatinent. However, handling small amounts called accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS).. The main of sample material inereases Ow danger of contamination, advantage of MIS over the conventional beta-counting Since minute additions. or non-genuine carbon can lead to 30 Malcolm H. Wiener

sometimes provided quite different date ranges for presence of old carbon. The probabilities presented materials divided between them, as in the case. of are, however, only measurement probabilities, not the reported dates a century apart for the Turin date probabilities (see e.g., VAN D811 PLIcHT and Ban- Shroud as well as for the control material of known ENS 2001), contrary to what readers or conference first century B.C./A.D. date (TAYLOR. 1997, 84-85). participants unfamiliar with the discourse of elating Examples of recent and more limited inter-labora- by radiocarbon may surmise. A measurement of the tory measurement differences are provided in Man- last rings of recently cut Theran wood which pro- ning (2004a). Some high precision laboratories duced a 1.40 age. of 1,390 years was a high precision acknowledge slight ongoing biases. e.g., "a conserv- determination of high probability that correctly ative upper limit of an additional unknown labora- measured the. overall carbon present, which included tory error in the Heidelberg facility is eight radio- 14e-depleted carbon absorbed from a nearby fuma- carbon years" (Klima:It el at. 2001, 2530). role (BRIT.N8 et at. 1980), thereby providing a. wholly The one standard deviation bands in which both erroneous date. radiocarbon ages and calibrated dates are normally A. GILBOA and I. SHARON (2003. 00, n. 14) observe stated (pursuant to the conventional Gaussian bell that: curve distribution) by definition provide only a 08% "Precision is not the seine as accuracy. The I figure statistical chance of encompassing an accurate radio- provided by the lab with radiometric dates merely carbon age or calibrated date under the. best, of col- denotes the internal variation, i.e., the standard devi- lection and pretreatment circumstances. While. the ation of a. number of individual counting-periods on two sigma, 95% probability, bands for unealibrated the same vial or accelerator runs on the same target. 14C ages are twice those of the one sigma bands - e.g.„ There are a host of other factors that could (minute- sixty years instead of thirty years the calibrated ly) affect the result: the microenviron merit around the. bands quoted take into account various factors, sample. in the ground; postrecovery storage condi- including the number and duration of determina- tions; differences in chemical protocols (hi- pretreat- tions, their precision (i„ e. , similarity to one another) ment; differences in the counting protocols; differ- and the nature of their fit to the calibration curve. ences in equipment and its calibration, etc. Some of Such judgments are necessarily partly subjective (see these sources of possible error are removed in the e.g., MANNixo 1995, 126-120) and are sometimes cleaning process or are neutralized by the appropriate open to dispute (WiENER 2003). use. of standards and backgrounds (blank samples) - All statements of probability made. in the course but are all? These. issues are the subject of ongoing of analyzing 14t..' determinations refer in the end to investigations. Finally, even when different labs do the degree of overlap between the one or two sigma agree, the calendar age depends to a large extent on ranges of radiocarbon determinations from selected the accuracy at which the calibration curve. for the samples of seeds or wood and the one. or two. sigma- relevant period has been determined and such factors ranges of decadal calibration curve measurements as regional differences in the radiocarbon reservoir. taken from trees of known dates, both of which are Recent studies (e.g., MANNIxo et at. 2(101) indicate subject to the uncertainties of regional variation, such inaccuracies exist, but they are small (i.e., in the intra- and inter-year variation, and the potential order of magnitude of individual docades)".2

invorreet results, the entire sample preparation has to he statement of aims and procedures, a practice. which should be performed with utmost care, which is time consuming". made standard in all reports of radiocarbon dates: "With the The rigor with which contaminants can be removed from aim of reaching measurement accuracy within the ±25 to ±40 seeds through pretreatment, depends on the extent to which (radiocarbon) year range, cOnventional radiometric counting the sample consists of purely elemental carbon. Some-'t irer- was the preferred analytic method, rather than the less-prac- :ru seeds, for example, may he more akin to II tuni e. acid com- ticed AMS (atomic mass spectrometry) technique. We set an pounds than to reduced elemental carbon, and hence must acceptability threshold of 3 g clean carbon (after treating the receive special treatment- (Floyst.ny el al. 1999,. 100). Rigor- specimen with hydrochloric acid and sodium hydroxide) while ous pretreatment is also a necessity where seeds have been aiming leis an ideal of 7 g carbon per specimen, The specimens carbonized together with the baskets or sacks in which they were analyzed at the Weitzmanu Institnte's 1-41 facility were carried and stored, or with the wood or cloth tops of (W.18; liar lab proeedures, see GurrA and POLACII 10(5). To jars in which they were stored. assure the desired precision, each sample was counted for The Gilboa and Sharon paper is noteworthy in its explicit, 3,000 minutes" (011..B0A and Serous 2003, SS), 'Times Change.: The Current State of the Dobate in Old World Chronology 31

I stated calibrated ranges encompass such possible sources of error as stratigraphic disturbance of car- bonized matter before recovery or contact with old carbon. M'oreover, the Gaussian distribution is nei- ther designed to reflect nor sufficient always to encompass such known variables as intra.- and inter- 3.100 BP I • I 4 d year differences within the decadal calibration mea- surements, differing patterns of absorption in sepa- rate tree species or regional variation in the distribu- tion of 14C The international calibration curve. assumes uniform distribution of radiocarbon at the Earth's surface. Any known regional offsets such as 3300 11P i those for the Southern Hemisphere, where F.G. McCormac et a/. and M. Stuiver both recommend that- 41 ±14 years be added to all measurements, must be applied to 1 0 determinations prior to calibration. Moreover, such regional variations are not constant

:1200 BI' .-....I but rather vary over time, with differences in solar activity suspected as the cause (McCottmALI et al. 2002, KNOX and 1700 BC 11100nc 1300 11(!' 641: 1111.TADGEN 2.001, 87; STU VER el al. 1908, 1046). Calibrated Date The irregular absorption of HO because of solar, Fig. 1 Calibration curve, one standard deviation band from climatic and regional factors presents a wide. array of 1700 B.C. to 1500 B.C. (after W. Kotschera, pers. eomm.). issues. Changes in climate affect the growing season Of course the two standard deviation band depicts a still greater oscillation during which trees and seed-producing plants absorb most of their radiocarbon. For example. recent work by Manning et al. suggests that a marked climate The Manning el al. judgment cited is discussed in change in Anatolia in the. ninth-eighth centuries B.C. various contexts below, and may prove somewhat delayed the growing season of trees, resulting in optimistic. In any event, it. is important to note that aberrant 140 determinations in this period as deter- differences "in the order of magnitude of individual mined by comparison to rings of the same known decades- can be of critical importance in determin- date from the trees in Ireland and Germany used to ing whether radiocarbon measurements fall within establish the calibration curve (RENFAI 2001; the oscillating portion of the calibration curve, con- Krzolm ER et al. 2001; MANNING et al, 2001). P. Reimer sistent with either the Aegean Short Chronology or has described succinctly the process at work: Aegean Long Chronology or an earlier date consis- "14e is •primarily produced at high latitudes in the tent with only the Aegean Long Chronology (Fig. 1). lower stratosphere by the collision of cosmic ray-pro- In general, "halving the error limits on a radio- duced neutrons with nitrogen. During periods of high metric age requires at least four times the. number of solar activity, distortion of Earth's geomagnetic field determinations, or four times as much counting time by the. solar wind prevents charged particles from . . ." (Butt: and MiLLARD 2003. VI). Such time-inten- entering the. atmosphere and little 14C is produced, sive. measurements by either method are expensive whereas 14C. production peaks during periods of low and, given constraints on budgets, a practical ques- solar activity (solar minima). The atomic. 140 is tion may often exist as to whether better overall quickly oxidized to 14C4,..and enters the troposphere. results are likely to be achieved by obtaining less during the late spring, a period of high stratospheric- intensive determinations on a larger ntunber of sam tropospheric exchange. By the next spring, the high- ples or more precise, but fewer determinations. In. er 14C concentration in the. atmosphere has been well any event, differences Of one to two decades strain mixed and diluted by exchange with other carbon the limits of the system of radiocarbon dating by reservoirs, particularly the surface ocean. The Ger- measurement and calibration. man trees, which grow mostly in the mid to late. sum- Of course neither the. Gaussian standard bell mer, take up more I' et'.), during photosynthesis than curve distribution which determines the one and two do the Mediterranean trees, which grow in the spring sigma probability bands prior to calibration nor the and early summer" (REDIER 2001. 2.495). 32 :Malcolm Wiener

California. bristlecone pines in one study consis- average summer, emission rate". The. study reports, tently produced older ages than German and Irish moreover, that more than 5% of a plant leaf's carbon oaks of the same known date, with an average offset content may be replaced in the course of a day (MIL- of 35 years., due perhaps to differences in the growing 'roN et a/. 1993, 402-493; I am indebted to D.J. season of the. trees, with differences in species and Keenan for calling my attention to this research). altitude of the trees as other potential relevant vari- Measurements of seeds from early crops -- e.g., winter ables (Mt:CORmac el al. 2002). Research in the course wheat or barley -- could thus be misleading when cal- of establishing the 1098 calibration curve disclosed a ibrated against- trees whose major growth period dur- mean difference of 24.2 ±6 years between Belfast ing which they acquire most of their 'k occurs in measurements of Irish oak and Seattle measure- late spring. Many Mediterranean plants have growing ments of German oak for the critical years 1.700 to seasons that include winter, differing in this respect 1500 B.C. Eight measurements of sections of the not only from the. European trees on -which the cali- same Irish trees by the two laboratories for the years bration curve is based, but also to some degree from 055 to 505 B.C. in a generally flat part of the cali- the trees of central Anatolia. where winters are cold- bration curve showed an inter-lab mean difference of er and cold weather lasts longer. Egypt of course has only 3.6 ±5.2. years, however. Accordingly, unless the a much warmer climate and a different. growing sea- situation is markedly different .for the oscillating cal- son, which must be considered in connection with 140. ibration curve years of 1075 to 1525 B.C., much of measurements such as those now underway of seeds the 24.2 -±.6 year difference between the Irish and from Tell et-Dah"a. In all cases where a difference in German oak from the 1700 to 1500 B.C. period is like- growing season exists, Aegean seeds are likely to give ly to be the result of regional variation rather than older radiocarbon age measurements than European inter-laboratory measurement differences (Reimer. or Anatolian trees, although the difference is likely to pers. COMM. Of 4- April 2002; see also DamoN 1995b). be within a decade except in unusual eases (see M.G.L. Bantle and D.M. Brown at Belfast- caution KEENAN 2004). Egyptian seeds, however, may be in a that. "the full implications of the regional calibration separate category in this regard. off-sets have not yet been fully appreciated by the Inter-year variation within the decadal calibra- archaeological community" (Barati7. and BROWN tion determinations is potentially more troublesome 2002, 490). Because the Irish oak ages measured by- still. Just as radiocarbon measurements can show no Belfast are bidecadal and the German oak ages mea- significant change over several centuries during sured by Seattle deendal, the measurements of Ger- which the intake of 140 balances the half-life loss, man oaks are. heavily overweigbted on the 1.908 curve conversely major differences in 14C ages exist now in standard use. The statistical method used to between adjacent decades at sections of the calibra- smooth the data introduces a further variable. More- tion curve where the slope is vertical or near vertical. over, for much of the INTCALOS calibration curve, Where dates proposed for major archaeological hori- only one log of known calendar age was tested for a. zons are dependent on such sections of the calibra- given period to obtain the corresponding level of hie tion curve, the relevant decadal determinations (or in the case of the German oak as distinguished should first be confirmed. In one such area of the from the Irish and North American trees, one log for INTCAL98 curve relevant to our understanding of each. laboratory). Accordingly a single aberrant the major Late Minoan IB destruction horizon in determination by one laboratory can have a. signifi- Crete, a supposed vertical portion of the calibration. cant effect on the shape of the calibration curve for a curve proved to be an illusion resulting from a single particular decade- (WIENER 2003 and sources cited aberrant measurement of one log in one laboratory therein). (WIENER 2003, 382). The example given is not Measurements also are affected by the intra-year unique; a calibration curve. measurement has had. a variation in radiocarbon described by Reimer. One major impact on the study of the prehistory of Swe- study observed an intra-year variation between the den (SEtaK-NIKI.8EN 2003, 122). winter low and the spring-summer high of up to thir- The fact that adjacent decadal determinations ty-two years, with an average difference of fourteen from trees can produce significantly more widely years (LEviN el al. 1992; LEVI N and HESS:HAL:1[ER spaced radiocarbon ages in vertical or sharply sloped 2000; see also KROmEn el al. 2001). A study of plants portions of the calibration curve raises a question in Canada (11102roN el al. 1993, 489) noted ". . the about mid-points within the decades. When a decadal difficulty of attempting to correlate the 140 signal in measurement includes in the sample tested wood growing vegetation with an average annual, or even from both narrow rings representing years of little Times Change: The Current, State of the Debate in Old world Chronology

tree growth and wood. from wider rings representing portion of the, calibration curve by a further exten- years of greater growth, the wider rings will provide sion of twenty additional radiocarbon years. The a greater amount of the cellulose containing radio- addition of only 0.2.5% 14G-depleted carbon to the carbon. Seeds absorbing their 140 during a. few weeks total carbon of a sample, either because the old car- at differing points within the decadal spans may pro- bon is absorbed by the plant or tree in its lifetime, or duce measurements different from the decadal aver- acquired from later contact and not. removed through. ages. (Of course in the odd case where seeds are roast- rigorous pretreatment, will result, in a twenty-year ed and stored for export or as protection against a shift. poor harvest., they may be recovered from. a destruc- With regard to regional variation, radiocarbon tion level of a. year falling in a decade different from determinations from Southern Hemisphere tree-ring the year of roasting, and thus also give a misleading. samples giving markedly earlier ages at times than. indication of the date of the destruction.) samples .from the Northern Hemisphere of the same The decadal determinations comprising the INT- known age. have been variously attributed to the. fact CAL9S calibration curve are generally reliable and that, more of the Southern Hemisphere. is covered by reproducible, but, were often the product of a single water, which contains fifty times the amount of 140 measurement on one or few logs as noted and subject of the atmosphere (LERMAN el al. 1970; OLsSoN 1979; to shorter counting periods than those current today. 1087), to the gradual release of a. sink of old carbon 117. Olsson notes that "it is important, that a good in the Weddell Sea in Antarctica, southeast; of South pretreatment is applied on the wood used for ealibra- America. (LERmAN el al. 1,970; Kxox. and MCFADGEN tion" (01..s.sox 2003, 23). The INT0AL04 calibration 2001) and/or to upwellings of old carbon frorn major curve now in preparation by an international team Pacific Ocean underwater volcanic vents, with the chaired by P. Reimer will make a. significant advance upwellings occurring in particular during El Nitro in terms of .precision and accuracy. New puzzles are. events (KEENAN 2002). The major increase in the. likely to arise, however. For example, current plan-. Southern/Northern Hemisphere gap during the fling envisages some smoothing of the calibration Maunder Minimum, the period from about A.D. 1645 curve measurements to limit the effect of individual to 1.715 when sunspots were extremely rare, corre- (and potentially misleading) decadal determinations sponding to the middle and coldest part of the "Lit- by weighting each decadal measurement, with the two tle Tee Age" during which Europe and North Ameri- preceding and two following decadal determinations. ca at least were subject. to bitterly cold winters, sug- The result will reduce the risk of significant error for gests the presence of a significant climate component any single decade, while reducing the. extent of indi- in the hemispheric differences noted. vidual decadal peaks and valleys employed fin. pur- Measurements of modern, pre-nuclear test period poses of "wiggle-matching", as for example, in the shells of known age from the Mediterranean show a comparison of the fixed European and floating Ana- water reservoir radiocarbon addition of around 400 tolian dendrochronological sequences. (I am grateful years, which then must. be subtracted from marine to S. Manning and P. Reimer for discussing these determinations (SIANI et al. 2000; REAmER. and issues with me. An interesting approach to the prob- MeCoRmAc 2002). Whether upwelling of ocean or sea- lem of smoothing 140 determinations is presented. in water containing old carbon is a plausible cause of Cl(1mEz PoirruoAt. AGUILAR el al. 2.00.2.) anomalously early radiocarbon ages for short-lived However precise the unealibrated measurements, terrestrial samples- either in the Pacific or Mediter- they remain dependent- on the calibration curve ranean regions is a subject of dispute (KmNAN 2002; adopted and the regional, time. and climate sensitive MANNIN0 cl al. 2002a). Keenan notes that the. data. they encode (BRuINs and VAN DER Pt-WET 1995, Mediterranean exhales carbon dioxide. intermittently 218--21.9). Small differences in sample and calibration as a result of natural processes, Given the large eon. curve measurements can have major implications for ce.ntration of 0O in seawater compared to the Aegean Bronze Age chronology and history. For atmosphere, and its relative depletion in 140. (result- example, because of the steepness of the slope of the ing in the 400-year difference), the 'potential effect of calibration curve in the period in question, the twen- episodic upwelling on coastal sites could be signifi- ty-year span between 3340 and 3320 H.P. in uncali.- cant. Manning el al. conclude that there is "currently brated ages can move calibrated central dates of the little evidence anywhere for a sustained large ampli- ± range (sometimes called the "mode of distribu- tude depletion of 14c, in terrestrial samples due to the tion") from about, 1620 to about 1525 B.G., and a influence of old CO, from the surface ocean and mar- spike at 1675 B.C. can be included in the oscillating itime air carried onshore" (2002a, 746). The question 34 llalenlm I7. -Wiener

requiring consideration, however, is not the existence. gas vents around Mt. Etna and strong effects mea- of "sustained large amplitude depletions.", but rather sured fifteen kilometers away. The extensive gas field the possibility of episodic, small amplitude effects. in northern Italy running between Florence and (The addition of only one-half of one percent. of old Naples includes. one vent east of Naples which emits carbon to a sample results in a forty-year increase in 280 tons of carbon dioxide per day, while the average radiocarbon age, as noted above.) diffuse CO, degassing from an area of 23,000 km.2 is The. quotation from Manning of al. continues as about. 18,000 tons per day (Rout t; 1996; CARDELLINI follows: et al. 2003; Rocn et al. 2000; Mtn-Am rt al. 1099). "A limited number of measurements directly on These sources may affect Italian 14C- determinations maritime air show highly localized. and variable and hence Italian prehistoric chronologies. results (But8HAN et al. 1997; DUTTA el al. 2000); such The critical question, however, involves sources in small-scale depleted air parcels would be- expected to the Aegean, particularly those close to Thera. Of dissipate rapidly over short distances with atmos- course we cannot know of sources that, have disap- pheric mixing, as is observed in air-sampling stations peared or become- quiescent as a result of eruptions in the Southern Ocean/Anta.retiea. Where. differences or earthquakes since the Bronze Age. M.oreover, of up to a few %a (or a. few tens of 14C- yr) do occur in active vents may be. invisible, with their gas escaping tree-rings, they appear to vary on a relatively short: through the soil. timescale and may be partly. or wholly due to other RAND° el at. (1995.6.) report. that: causes (McCotonte. et al. 1995; ThutoN1.9115a..; SytavEtt "Greece and the Aegean is one of the seismically et al. .1908; KNOx and MieFADGEN 2001; KROMER el al. most active regions on Earth and has the highest seis- 200.1; HOW et al. 2002; TIM (4 at. 2002)". mic activity in Eurasia (RATH 1983; MAKittwotios Of course for certain critical decades and events and Buirrox 1984). Geothermal areas are known in such as the. date of the eruption of Thera. "a few tens the northern and central Aegean as well as along the of 140 years difference." would be. sufficient to cause Hellenic Volcanic Arc (Domx100 and PAPASTAMAIDEI major uncertainty, as noted above. 1975; Timm 1988; FrriK.A8 el al. 1989: VARNAWAS A further question arises as to whether the analy- 1989: VARNAVAS and °RONAN 1901)". sis cited takes into account reports of the release of The. Hellenic. Arc of volcanoes stretches from significant amounts of "C-depleted carbon from- Methana on the coast of the Peloponnese through major vents or fields of vents on land and under the Melos anti Thera to Yali-Nisyros. The vent near Melos sea, particularly those in plentiful supply in the Hel- is today one of the most active sources of hypother- lenic Arc, including at least one close to Thera„ While rnal fluxes in the world. The. se.afloor around Melos- has a number of single-source volcanic eruptions have "the world's largest known concentration of vents in resulted in emissions of carbon-depleted gases over shallow water" (PAIN 1999, 39), and, although not an small distances measured only in meters or hundreds active volcano, its output of 14C-free. carbon is esti- of meters as stated (KnomER el al. 2004), others (par- mated at two to ten kilotons per day (Borz et a.1.1996; ticularly those. with multiple vents) have been shown DANno el al. 1995b; 2000). An earthquake near Memos to produce strong effects over greater distances (e.g., in 1992 caused the eruption of gas vents all around ROGIE et at. 2001 re carbon dioxide emission at Main- the island and showed an increase of 65% in the num- moth Mountain in California; PASQUIFEI-CARDIN el al. ber of vents (PAIN 1909, 41). " 'Every fumarole on the. 1999 re venting in the Azores), sometimes to a dis- shore blew out. And the sea boiled as the gas came out tance of over ten kilometers (OLssoN 1087, 20 re with such force. Stunned fish came. to the surface' " Kamchatka in the. Aleutian Chain). Within the (BR-. Dando, as quoted in PAIN 1099, 44'1 Mediterranean, Allard et al. (1991) report carbon Systematic surveys of submarine hydrothermal dioxide production of 70,000 tons per day from the. venting have not yet been conducted in the Aegean

Discharges from the vicinity of nelos, however massive, such as-occur during the spring and eat-1y summer growing would dissipate long before reaching Thera, particularly season for plants the discharge of moisture against the hills given the strength of Aegean winds. It is conceivable that of Thera from low cloudS drifting in from the west is suffi- in the special case of possible upwclling of old carbon from ciently frequent: to he known as ''the Poseidon irrigation the lillediterranean, the. old carbon content of the water system" (Doutnas, pers. comm, of 1 December 20931. The would be augmented by massive discharges from underwa- (thence that any particular radiocarbon determination ter vents such as those described near Melos. On calm days would he affected in this manner is very slight.. however. Times Change: The Current. State. of the :Dante in Old World Chronology 35

(11).AND0 et al. 199511, 06].), but gas vents producing Exomiti, documenting gas emissions along fault lines HO-depleted CO2 have been noted in many places, for presumably from active magma chambers (B.AftnEul example. near the islands of Thasos and Lesbos, with and CARAPEZZA 1904; DELI73AS18 el al. 1900)". others undoubtedly existing elsewhere (DANDo el al. The publication by F. Barberi and M.L. Carapez- 2000). Vents rather than volcanism may be the source za cited above reports the results of a soil gas survey of much of the world's carbon (RonE 1996). The conducted on Thera in 1993 that, found several principal recent study notes that. "only recently, it anomalous degassing sites, some along the K.ameni has been recognised that the quiescent, non-eruptive and Co[limbo lines responsible for the historically diffuse degassing is the principal mode of gas release documented volcanic activity on Thera, but also from volcanoes, and that volcanic flanks play a. fun- some related to a gas-leaking fault cutting a geother- damental role" (MORNER and ETIO PE 2002, 1.89). mal field in southern Thera. H.W. Hin[BERToN et al. (The total extent of outgassing of old carbon world- (1990) report that their tests did not show effects wide is also discussed in GERLActi 1991, 249.) While beyond 100 in. from a gas source (but without speci- dilution over space will render negligible the effects of fying wind conditions), while acknowledging that isolated points of low magnitude discharges. higher general conditions and sources of 140-depleted car- magnitude, more numerous, distributed sources may bon at the time, of the eruption are unknown. They combine to produce a regional effect. Degassing from contend that: the scattered radiocarbon dates known vents has been known to increase markedly with seis- prior to the 1990 date of their publication are unlike- mic activity, as in the case of Melos (DANN) ra el. ly to have been affected by the presence of old carbon 1.995b) and numerous other earthquakes ((OLF) and and hence validate a high date for the eruption, find- SOTEk 1085; SOTEil 1999). ing possible support for their view in the purported Whatever the potential effect of outgassing else- evidence of Theran shards in the Greenland ice core where in the Aegean, a far more significant question at 1045 ±4 B.C. and the 1628-26 B.C. frost rings in in regard to 140 measurements of Thera.n seeds and trees, arguments since largely abandoned by propo- wood is presented by sources of old carbon on Thera nents of the Aegean Long Chronology as noted itself. Today on Thera furnaroles, hydrothermal above. springs and higher than normal concentrations of Carbon dioxide is 50% heavier than air and, if 14C,-free CO„ in soils persist (h..,..0-,CoY and II.li1 -(E-N emitted in sufficient concentration, can easily accu- 2000a.; 2000b; Hol It 1088. 203; BRUNS el al. 1.980). mulate in low-lying areas of cereal growth if not dis- Five kilometers to the northeast of Thera a major sipated by winds; a few days per year' of modest underwater source of 14 0-depleted_ carbon exists at degassing in flat, calm weather is all that is required the Colunibo Bank (McCoy and Hl IKEN 2000a). F.W. to affect plants. S. Soter gives the following highly McCoy describes CoJumbo Bank as a very dangerous simplified model as illustration: volcano, perhaps the most dangerous in the southern "The growing season in Greece is about. 180 days. Aegean today, about whose eruptive history little is Suppose the. concentration of volcanic CO., near the known (pers. comm. of 21 February 2004, for which ground equals that of the normal atmospheric CO„ I am most grateful). Non-volcanic earthquakes also during one day in the growing season and is zero for often trigger the release of 140-d.epleted gas from the other 179 days. That brief exposure would pro- vents. Earthquakes are of course frequent on Thera; vide 0.55%, or 1. part in 181, of volcanic CO, to the 109 earthquakes, most with a Richter magnitude of plants, which would produce an apparent radiocar- one to three, were reported in the [bur-year period bon age increment of about 40 years. The. pre-indus- from 1985-1988 (DEutiAsn; et al. .1.990, cited trial atmospheric CO, concentration was about 275. McCoy and HEIKEN 2000a, 48). F.W. McCoy and G. parts per million, and doubling it for one day would Heiken report that: not be noticed. The amount of CO,, needed before "[F]umaroles and hot springs are present on and people even begin to feel ill effects is about 5000 around the Kameni islands, as well as on Thera. near ppm" (pers. comm. of 28 February 2004. for which I AU-limit-is. Cape Exomiti, and Cape Therma. (thermal am most, grateful). springs at Cape Exomiti. are now buried under a new Indeed, a few ' exposure. to 14C`depleted car- harbor; those at Cape Therma with greatly dimin- bon might suffice, for a plant leaf may replace over ished flow rate. and temperature following the 1956 5% of its, carbon in a single day, as noted above. A earthquake, according to local residents). High con- plant growing in 1550 B.C. with only 0.25% of its centrations of helium and CO2 are present in soils on carbon from volca=nic CO,, would have a calibrated central Thera and on southern Thera near Cape date of about 11320 B.C., given the shape of the cali- 36 Ma kola" FL wiener

bration curve--i.e., a lac age increment of Only twen- objects, food supplies and consumption" and indoor ty years in the critical span results in a calibrated work including "abolishing accesses to parts of com- increment of seventy years. Twenty-year differences plexes, abolition of rooms, supports, protection and challenge the best of radiocarbon measurements and storing of objects,. discarding of objects, repairs and the limits of the method. Of course not all "C. deter- renovations". Nikolakopoulou notes particularly the minations suggesting the possibility of an early date recovery of sacks and baskets full of barley and con- for the Theran eruption fall within this twenty-year cludes that it. is now evident that during the re- period. arrangement of the settlement, provisions were The sequence of earthquakes and eruptions at made for food and fire. Accordingly, the possibility Thera in the Late Bronze Age is of particular rele- exists that some of the seeds and twigs found in the. vance. At the beginning of Late Cycladic I/Late Volcanic Destruction Level (VDL) Akrotiri from Minoan 1, a massive earthquake- struck Thera, the which 140 measurements were taken had been grown southern Aegean and most of Crete, causing such and collected for those who remained after the pre- destruction at Akrotiri that ground floors in some cursor events, including not only the clearly identifi- places became basements beneath the leveled rubble able events in the resettlement phase, but also the (NI cotAKonotmou 2003; WARREN 1991; MARTH.ARI earthquakes which are believed to have occurred in 1084; PAnvvotT 1984). Earthquakes are likely to cause the preceding decade (1.11nCoN' and REIEEN 2000b), the release of quantities of 14C-free carbon from both. and which may have been accompanied by an terrestrial and underwater vents in the Hellenic Are increase in the number of fumaroles and release of (as the 1992 earthquake at: Melee demonstrated). old carbon. "Earthquake swarms" precede most volcanic erup- Fumaroles send 14C-depleted carbon into the tions. (HELLEN and MCCoy 1090. 20). Results of atmosphere where it can be absorbed by the leaves of recent excavations suggest the occurrence of further plants and trees. The soil gas in geothermal areas has earthquakes within LM IA between the initial major elevated concentrations of old CO.2 Plants are, known event and the Theran eruption (REHAK and to acquire small amounts of carbon dioxide directly Vol wit 1008, 101). S. 5rd:•er notes that "terrestrial from the soil through their roots PEISLER 1903. 4tmol fi rl outgassing in tectonically active areas is highly time- IIR0ALEvrrett and JANE, 1988; STOLIVIJE variable. In the years leading up to the paroxysmal 1.957; 8KOK. et al. 1062; SnurrsToEssEu 1966; A RTECA of Thera, the volcanic region may et al. 1070). For example, one experiment used labeled well have been emitting enormous quantities of 1-4CO, to demonstrate that eggplant roots are capable, 'dead' carbon dioxide" (pers. comm. of 15 May 2003). of taking up CO, from the. soil environment and that The period immediately preceding the great erup- the carbon so acquired can. be translocated to the tion of Thera was marked by "-precursor events" in shoots (Bititox and Gonsiu 1986). However, there the form of more than one large earthquake, most seems to be no consensus regarding the magnitude, of likely volcanic in origin (Cm x1 et al. 2000; McCoy, CO, uptake by plant roots. Whether the effect can pers. comm., for which I am most grateful). The exca- add significant increments- to the radiocarbon ages of vators believe that during. the year or two before the plants grown in volcanic areas is; yet to be. deter- final eruption, the settlement of Akrotiri suffered for mined. (I am grateful to S. Seater for informing me of a short time from minor seismic tremors and finally, the literature regarding root uptake of carbon.) toward the end, from a major and destructive tremor, Further questions, apart, from those related. to-the- causing the populace to abandon their houses and. release of old carbon by gas venting, arise with begin a massive reconstruction effort (C. Doumas, regard to possible sources of old carbon in samples pers. comm. of 11 March 2004; NIE0LAKoPotrUni- measured. River water used lbr washing storage jars 2003). Then, a precursor eruptive phase "some weeks to remove insect infestations may produce a "fresh- or months prior to the major phases of the eruption water reservoir" or "hardwater" effect biasing 1-4-C deposited a thin tephra layer extending. to S em. over determinations upward (Fisetiall and HEIN3IELER southern Thera" (McCoy and HEIKEN 2000b, 1235). 2003. 449). N.-A. MOn.NE;ii and G. ETtoi,E (2002. 103) T. NixoLAKomunot' (2003) describes a period of note that, in the "T.e.thyan belt [which. includes the "intense seismic activity" for a brief interval before -Mediterranean region], high CO.:, fluxes are related to the final eruption, after which there exists evidence important, crustal formations of . carbonate. rocks for outdoor work including "arrangement of debris [causing} high levels of CO„ concentration in ground and organization of workspaces, collecting and sort- and groundwater". Finally, they also report-that "the ing building materials, gathering tools, transport of Precambrian bedrock includes stromatolites, marble Times Change:- The Current State of the Debate in Old world Chronology 37

and other carbonate bearing rocks rwhiehl ... may '4C-depleted carbon through the root system of give rise to the escape of CO," (197). The basement plants suggest that the uptake. may saturate at a low rocks of Thera and the other Aegean islands include but significant level; (3) a consistent upward bias may metamorphosed limestone. The term "cretaceous" is he caused by pretreatment which succeeds in remov- derived from. Crete. and one of its definitions is ing almost all old superficially adsorbed. carbon pre- "Chalky" (Soter, pers. reminder). Heating of lime- sent but leaves a minute residue, a possibility that stone by metamorphism and voleanism generates old cannot be entirely excluded (see note 1). Neverthe- carbon dioxide, which can escape into the soil and less, the Manning argument will require serious con- atmosphere through fissures and faults, especially in sideration if it can be. shown that, samples from the connection with seismic activity. VDL regularly provide dates earlier than the oscillat- The existence of known and potential sources of ing portion of the calibration curve, or samples from old carbon necessarily raises the question of whether post-destruction periods, such as LM 13, regularly there is a significant likelihood that such old carbon provide radiocarbon dates earlier than dates consis- will be incorporated by the trees or seeds subse- tent with a post e. 1550 B.C. eruption. quently measured. S. Manning believes the possibili- The evidence to date, however, does not seem to ty slight and undemonstrated, contending that it is support such a. position. Most determinations fall unlikely that cereals and pulses dated by radiocarbon within the oscillating portion of the- calibration curve would have been planted or the trees grown in the and are consistent. with an eruption date between vicinity of furnaroles or limestone sources (pers. 1550 and 1525 B.C., or are so marginally higher as to comm.). The possibility exists, however, that the key fall easily within the range of measurement variation seed samples, such as those from the. jars found in the or error.' A threshold question exists regarding which destruction deposit in rooms 3e and 5 of the West determinations are accepted into the dataset and House and elsewhere, were all collected at the same how these are combined. Biasing results, for example time from the same location. Doumas (pers. by including in the database a sample with 1% old comm.) notes that barley is grown today on the. small carbon which adds about, 80 years to a. measurement hill across the road from the site of Akrotiri. while rejecting a sample. containing 3% old carbon Instances of old carbon effects extending over dis- which adds about 245 years on the ground that- the tances. measured in kilometers are described above. latter is an obvious outlier, must be avoided. Issues S. Manning contends in particular, however, that presented in the combining of determinations from old carbon would not be present in short-lived sam- archaeological samples are considered in ASITAIORE ples in relatively consistent, limited amounts and (1.99)).5 hence would not explain 140 determinations puta- In the course of the attempt. to provide dates for tively supporting a date 50 to 150 years earlier than the Theran eruption and the major phases of the the date range proposed for the Theran eruption in early Late Bronze Age in the Aegean, many radio- accordance with the Egyptologically-based Aegean carbon measurements have been obtained in recent Short Chronology (11ANNI.N.6 1999. 236, and personal years from deposits other than the. Theran VIA, for discussions .for which Tam most grateful). Here three example from early LM/LH 1, mature LM/LH I, LM caveats may be appropriate: (1) the atmospheric old I3/1.11 HA and MITI contexts. These measurements carbon effect may have a restricted upper limit based have, been placed in sequence and compared to the on the. magnitude and distance of the source if all the calibration curve, a process recently termed seeds tested come from plants growing in one area, "sequence seriatien" or "seriated. sequence" analysis with only a few outliers recording greater concentra- in place of "wiggle-matching" (a term now properly tions; (2) the studies which support the uptake of reserved for comparisons between series with known

Early studies in particular produced "Outliers" both earlier The preceding pages have dealt in detail with the nature and later titan the possible range of dates (Ht.'alttmrox et anti extent. of sources of old carbon and of its proposed at. MO; 131oo1.E and RALPH 1980; MICHAEL 107S; 1980; paths of transmission to radiocarbon samples in order to WEINSTEIN and .BETANCOCIrr 1975; WENINGER 1990), Seine redress partial and potentially misleading accounts in the of those measurements did. not come from short-lived sam- current archaeological literature. Even if no old carbon ples or samples clearly associated with the VDL, and many were present in a sample, the problems posed by regional, of the samples did not undergo pretreatment of the hind inter- and infra-3'ear variation and by the oscillating cali- now standard, however. bration curve would of course still be present, 38 Malcolm EL Wiener

intervals, such as decadal measurements of den- Thera conducted by the VERA Laboratory of the drochronological sequences of trees from different University of Vienna (Kutschera, pers. comm.) focus- areas, species and/or measurement methods/labora- es on the twenty-five critical Akrotiri samples (after tories). A detailed, informative description of the culling from the data bank all samples with a one process and its utilization by the widely employed sigma range greater than 100 years and all those OxCal program is provided by its progenitor, C.B. whose destruction layer origin could not be estab- RA3ISEY (2001). All such analyses, where the lished). The study, which corrects the data presented time intervals between the various phases cannot be at the 1998 SCIEM conference, concludes: established independently, are highly dependent sta- "But now we obtain - as a result of the calibra- tistically on the correctness of the "boundaries" tion curve -- two ranges, the first from 1640 B.C. to incorporated in the seriation, such as "start LM IA" 1600 B.C. and the second from 1570 B.C. to 1530 B.C. or "LM 113 end". (Potential hazards in the applica- . . . [T]he two peaks have almost the same size, so tion of Bayesian analysis to radiocarbon dates are none of them has a preference over the other. That: considered in STE1 ER and Rolu 2000; WIENER 2003.) means in other words that measuring a lot of new Establishing the locations (dates) of the boundaries, samples from the destruction layer of Thera will not however, encounters many of the same difficulties as result in finding out which range is the true one. Thus establishing the date of the VDL directly, unlike the 14C dating -- because of the shape of the calibration situation where a "boundary" date is fixed by den- curve at that time - is not capable to distinguish drochronology or recorded history (e.g., the tephra between high and low chronology for the Thera layer from the eruption of Vesuvius in A.D. 70). For event". example, attempting to establish an end of LM IB Similarly, W. Cavanagh, coauthor of the standard "boundary" on the basis of a set of dates at one site text, on the Bayesian Approach to Interpreting Archae- where the relationship in time of the particular ological Data (BuCK et al. 1996), in discussing the deposit to other LM TB destructions is uncertain, study of the Eastern Mediterranean radiocarbon other UNI TB radiocarbon measurements of destruc- data published by MANNING et al. (2002b) concludes tion levels are later and the INTCAL08 calibration that the analysis ". . . in no way rules out the Aegean curve at the relevant decade contains an erroneous Low Chronology" (quoted in WIENER 2003, 391, n. measurement which could result in the lowering of 107- sat 148). P. Reimer, the lead investigator in the INT- the date by a decade or more (WIENER 2003, 54), CAL04 project, reaches the same conclusion: "ft appears to lack a solid basis. (See contra, MANNING, would indeed be difficult to distinguish dates this volume; RAMSEY et al. 2004.) The consequence is between 1615 and 1525 RC." (pers. comm. of 8 historically significant, for the purported "bound- December 2003). ary" would remove any overlap between the reign of In the six intervening years since the completion Tuthmosis TIT and the LM TB period, a somewhat of the VERA Laboratory study cited, many addi- surprising prospect in light of the archaeological evi- tional ite measurements have been added to the dence.' database at VERA and elsewhere. Studies under way In the final analysis, and separate from the prob- utilizing the additional data: will provide important lems posed by the possible presence of old carbon and new information and may alter the picture presented by regional, inter- and intra-year variation, we are by the 1098 study. Unless significant numbers of pre- left with the hurdle of the oscillating calibration cise measurements from relevant, rigorously collect- curve of the late seventeenth and sixteenth century ed, treated and analyzed samples provide dates out- B.C. An analysis of radiocarbon measurements from side the oscillating decades of the calibration curve,

The site of Chania, where a destruction produced radiocar- REN 1981). The example of error in decadal calibration bon dates possibly earlier than t4 A.rittdiocarbon dates of measurements oiled in connection with the (Amnia mea- other LAI IB destructions (MANNING(2.002b; but ef WIENER surements is not unique; ha; CX11111p10, m 11 few instances 2003) contained Alternating Style pottery, sometimes deendal measurements of trees in Anatolia and in Cermany thought to represent a mature phase of 1.410 IB on the evi- produced radiocarbon ages that were significantly at vari- dence of the stratigraphy of one small plot at Kastri on anee, probably as a result of measurement problems. (NEW- Kythera (COLDaTREam and HuNLEY 1972). The Strati- TON and KtINIII0120 2004. 1 am grateful to the authors for graphic :Museum site at. Knossos, 110WeVOr, contained Alter- allowing me to see their important paper prior In publica- nating Style pottery throughout the TM 113 sequence (WAR- tion; see also Nimettat el a/. 2001, fig. 3.) Times Change: The. Current State of the .Debate in Old World Chronology 30

however, radiocarbon dating wilt remain unable to of the eruption would still move no earlier than 1550 provide convincing evidence of the date of the Ther- B.C. Finally, it is important: to recognize that the an eruption and the LM IA-IB transition. challenge to a seventeenth or early sixteenth century. B.C. date for the Theran eruption posed by the con- ARCHAEOLOGICAL EVIDENCE BASED ON EGYPTIAN texts of Cypriote pottery is not limited to the posi- CHRONOLOGY tion- of WS I, but encompasses a sequence including Other papers in this volume present the Egypte- Cypriote White. Painted VI, Proto White Slip, Base- archaeological evidence for a mid-to-late sixteenth- ring I and Red Lustrous Wheel-made wares, consist- century eruption of Thera. Foremost, is the evidence ing of thousands of sherds from Ten el-Daboa - in from Cypriote- pottery. The VOL at Thera contained Egypt, Tell el-"Ajjul in Canaan and various sites the now well-known Cypriote White Slip I (WS I) throughout the Eastern Mediterranean. The Tell el- bowl. While the vessel came from the A.D. 1870 "Ajjul sequence is notable for the numbers of Cypri- exploration and' not the current, excavations, Mer- ote sherds of each phase of the sequence present-. rillees' careful study concludes that "there. can be no (See, fbr example,. BlETAK 2001; 2003a; BIETAK and doubt, about the. provenance and stratification of the HEIN 2001; Ffscium 2003'; FISCH ER and SALIM 2002; Cypriote White Slip howl" (MERRiLLEEs 2001, 92). OREN 1997; 2001; BERGOFFEN 2001; WIF,NER 2003, The absence. of Cypriote pottery in the material stud- 309). ied to date from the ongoing excavation of Akrotiri is S. Manning has argued. forcefully that. the delay of not surprising, given the fact that only six examples at least a century between the arrival of a -WS I bowl of WS I. have been reported for the. entire Aegean at Thera and its first documented appearance else- (MERItiti.Ezs 2001, 08-100). While WS I eating and where could result: from regionalism in Cyprus during drinking vessels were attractive practically and aes- Late Cypriote IA and from exclusive exchange rela- thetically in the Near East in comparison with local tionships linking the major Cypriote southeast coast wares, in the Cyclades WS I could not compete with site of Enkomi with places in Egypt. and the Near Minoan pottery and its place within the general East including Tell el-Dab"a (MANNtN0 el al. 2002c). attraction of Minoan palatial culture of the New Manning regards the bowl from Thera as an early Palace Period, or indeed with the excellent Late example of WS I produced on the northwest coast of Cycladic I pottery of Thera itself. The contempo- Cyprus, an example of a, type of pottery which does raneity of WS I and the mature Late Minoan 1 pot- not reach Enkomi in any quantity until several gen- tery of the Theran VDL is also evident in the mater- erations later (111ANNtv; 1999. 119-120; see contra-, ial excavated at Toumba ton Skourou and. Ayia Irini the. extended discussions in 13lE'rM. 2003b and on the northwest coast of Cyprus (WIENER 2003, 307 WIENER 2003). Other Cypriote pottery specialists and sources cited therein). Of course the. creation of believe the. Theran bowl comes from the west of the howl in Cyprus could predate. its destruction in Cyprus or the- south coast, (PornAm 2001., 21-7; MER- the Theran eruption by many years, and in fact the. RILLEES 2001, 93: KARACEOR(IMS 1990, 57, n. 23; bowl showed evidence of use and ancient repair. BlETAK 2003a, 26-27) and, moreover, that it is not The earliest certain appearance of WS I pottery parti laxly early. (For the position of the decoration in Egypt and. the Near East, comes in the Tuthmoside of the Theran bowl in relation to the Tell el-"Ajjul. era, not before c. 1500 RC., with the possible excep- sequence, compare in the same- volume the illustra- tion of WS I sherds found at-Tell el-"Ajjul whose con- tion in ATERRILLEEs 2001, 91. with BEREOFFEN 2001, text, while somewhat uncertain, makes them poten- 153, placing the decorative pattern of the Theran tial candidates for an earlier arrival (13ERO0VrEN- bowl about, one-third of the. way through- the WS I 2001; W(EN.Eft 2003, 3.09), However, even if (1) WS I sequence.) MtnttinEE8 (2001) suggests that:the bowl bowls of the type recovered from the VDL at Thera belongs in the Le transition. L. ettEwE in her existed for two generations, or sixty years, befbre dissertation and article-in this volume examining the their first stratified appearance to date at Tell el- limited surviving records of the Enkomi excavations Daboa, around 1500 B.C'.; (2) one of the first exam- cOneurs with S. Manning that the examples of WS I ples produced arrived in Thera; (3) the use, repair in whose contexts there can be firmly identified are antiquity and destruction of the bowl in the Therm' probably from late LC- TB rather than LC IA deposits eruption all occurred within- a. decade and (4) there is and hence later than the first appearance. of WS T in some overlap between early stages of WS I produc- the west- of Cyprus. A delay of 100 or more years tion and Proto White Slip (which. is stratified. at. Tell between the time a WS I bowl reach-es Thera and the el-Dah"a in the final Hyksos stratum), then the date time the ware reaches the Near East and Egypt 40 Maleohnii. Wiener

appears unlikely, however, particularly in light of the from the Theran eruption were collected from various fact that the putative delay in question must also strata, beginning with a stratum containing material somehow affect all ether wares in the sequence, from the early Eighteenth Dynasty and Cypriote pot- including Proto White Slip, as noted above (discus- tery of the Late Cypriote I A2/I B period, no earlier sion in B1ETAK 2003a; BIETAK and HEIN 2001; than e. 1.540 B.C. and likely post-dating the conquest- WIENER 2001; 2003; see contra, l‘IANNING et al. 2.002e; of Tell el-cAjjol by Ahmose. after 1525 B.O. This stra- MANNING, this volume).' tum and the one following contain examples of Cypri- In addition to the pottery evidence, the contexts ote White Slip I, Base-ring.I and. Red. Lustrous Wheel- of waterborne pumice from the Theran eruption made wares, together with most of the pumice sam- found in Egypt and the Near East have been consid- ples. No samples of Theran pumice have-been found in ered as evidence relating to the. date of the. eruption. the earlier Hyksos period strata at Tell 01-"Aljul. A At Tell el-Dabca Theran pumice in large quantities small number of samples, however, were Ibund in stra- was found at five. locations, three of which the exca- ta extending into the. Iron Age (FiscifEtt 2003, vator believes were workshops active. during the reign 289-290). Other sites provide examples of Theran of Tuthmosis M and not abandoned until late in his pumice in use covering more than a millennium, from reign or the following reign of Amenophis IT, in any L.H. It through the. Hellenistic period (WIENER in event after c. 1450 B.O. (BIETAK et al. 2001, 37.89, 91; WIENER and ALLEN 1.998, 25---27, but only in small BloiLER et al. 2003; 2002; WARREN 1990, 287---288, ff. amounts, not large quantities such as. that. found at below). Pumice from the Theran eruption has also Dahea. Accordingly, while it is possible that the Ther- been found in Eighteenth Dynasty, likely post-1525 an. eruption occurred much earlier than the date of the B.C„ contexts at Tell el-(Ajjul and Tell Naafi in strata in which the Theran pumice at- various places Canaan (BleHL1w et al. 2003; 2002; FISCHER 2003; has been found, with the pumice collected or imported FISCHER and SADEQ. 2002 MANNING 1999. 145-150). at the date of use, the. fact that Thera.n pumice has yet Of course waterborne. pumice could have been col- to be .Found in pre-Eighteenth Dynasty strata remains lected from the N. ile Delta/Mediterranean Sea or significant, though clearly not conclusive. imported as an abrasive at any time. between the eruption and the date of use of the pumice. An erup- SUMMATION tion c. 1525 B.C., at the latest point in the indicated The difficulties faced by archaeologists and. prehisto- radiocarbon calibration range for the-eruption, would rians in following the ongoing discussions of Egypt- mean a delay of two to three generations between the ian astronomy, confronting the purported ice-core eruption and. the date proposed for the abandonment and tree-ring evidence for a 1.650 to 1.028 B.C. date for of the Tell el-DaVa- workshops containing Theron the Theran eruption and understanding the nature pumice, whereas an eruption e. 1600 B.C. would and complexity of the problematic radiocarbon/sta- require a delay of five to six generations. A difference tistical argument. for the Aegean Long Chronology, of this nature would not he of great significance to on the one hand, and the reciprocal perplexity some- the chronological debate. ft is worth noting, however, times expressed by physical scientists concerning the that in one context. Workshop N in area H/I, the textual plus archaeological evidence fOr the. Aegean pumice may appear as early as the reign of Tuthrno- Short Chronology, on the other hand, indicate that sis T, around 1500 B.C. (BiETAK et al. 2001). Accord- the problem of the division between the. "two eul- ingly it is possible that Theran pumice was first used tures" is still with us. Even specialists in chronology at Tell el-Dab' a within a generation of a putative c. who follow closely all developments hold differing 1525 B.C. eruption, and continued to be collected or positions, however. Those who regard the. Egypte- imported for two generations thereafter. archaeological evidence and in particular the general- At Tell el-cAjittl, fiwty-eight samples of pumice ly prevailing Cypriote pottery analysis as unpersua-

7 Of course the archaeological problems caused by the pro- MiREN 1584; BIETAIC it at. 2002; WiENER 2003). Similar- posed Aegean Long Chronology extend beyond the Cypri- 13,,, the concomitant required extension of the. LIB 1 period ote pottery sequence.. The earlier the date proposed for the of Myeenao from three to five or more generations poses dif- mature_ 10,1" IA eruption of. Thera, the greater the difficul- ficulties in terms of, 14 example, the continuity of hands ties, including the. required compression of both the. MAI 111 believed present in the metalwork through the. sequence of period in Crete and the Hyksos period in Egypt and the burials (GRA7,1,ADO 1951 DICKINStix 1577„50-51; 1;:lgyptian contexts of Aliddle Minoan imports (sec, e.g., 1./IR IMBIER 1986). Times Change: The Current. State of the Debate in Old World Chronology 41

sit=e, and the radiocaibon evidence for a Theron erup- in various areas of science, provided drafts of papers tion date significantly earlier than 1550 B.C. as sub- and information on research in advance of publica- stantial.. favor the Aegean Long Chronology, even tion, or commented in detail on sections of this paper. though. deprived of support from ice-core or tree-ring I thank in particular Manfred Bietak, Christos evidence. Conversely,. those who believe the radiocar- Doumas, Claus U. Hammer, Douglas J. Keenan, Rolf bon evidence unpersuasive because of some or all of Krauss, 13ernd Kromer, Peter 1.. Kuniholm, Walter the areas of uncertainty noted in this paper, and the Kutschera, Stint W Manning, Floyd W McCoy, Egypto-archaeological arguments for an Eighteenth Maryanne W.. Newton, Irene Nikolakopoulou, Dynasty eruption date compelling, naturally favor Nicholas J-.1.1. Pearce, Paula J. Reimer and Peter M. the Aegean Short Chronology. At the least, the Warren. Special thanks are due Steven Soter for papers from this conference mark a major step for- responding promptly to a wide range of complex sci- ward in clarifying the issues. entific queries. I also thank Jayne L. Warner and her associates Erin Hayes, V. Reagan Baydoun and Acknowledgements Jason Earle for their indefatigable assistance in locat- I am indebted to a number of dedicated friends and ing articles from publications difficult to obtain, in colleagues who have guided me through the literature checking citations and in a myriad of ways.

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THE SYNCHRONISATION OF CIVILISATIONS IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN IN THE SECOND MILLENNIUM B.C. III

Proceedings of the SCIEM 2000 — 2"d EuroConference Vienna, 28th of May — I" of June 2003

Edited by MANFRED BIETAK and ERNST CZERNY

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