Grupa Azoty: Hold (Downgraded) ATT PW; ATT.WA | Chemicals, Poland
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Tuesday, August 30, 2016 | update Grupa Azoty: hold (downgraded) ATT PW; ATT.WA | Chemicals, Poland Cheap Grain Keeps Fertilizer Prices Down Current Price PLN 64.79 Target Price PLN 65.50 After a bumper harvest in former Soviet states and in both Americas, the world is set for the fourth consecutive global grain surplus in the Market Cap PLN 6.4bn 2016/2017 season which, in our view, is more than likely to keep Free Float PLN 1.5bn the prices of crops and cereals low at least through to the end of ADTV (3M) PLN 8.52m 2016. In this environment, there is no room for producers of agricultural fertilizers like Grupa Azoty to raise their sales prices for Ownership at least another year-and-a-half. Accordingly, we have lowered our 2016 and 2017 grain price assumptions, originally predicated on the Polish Government 33.00% expectation that a lower harvest in Europe would mitigate the global Wiaczesław Kantor (Acron) 19.70% oversupply of crops, and likewise we have downgraded our NN OFE 9.96% expectations as to the prices of fertilizers. Consequently, we have TFI PZU AM 8.60% revised our financial forecasts for Grupa Azoty's Fertilizer business, EBRD 5.75% and we now expect that the segmental EBITDA will post a drop of 12.2% in 2016 and 25.2% in 2017. On a positive note, at the same time we expect improvement in the Chemicals segment, driven Others 22.99% mainly by high prices of melamine. On our updated estimates, ATT is trading at respective premiums of 4% and 16% relative to 2017E Business Profile and 2018E peer EV/EBITDA ratios. We are lowering our price target Grupa Azoty is a fertilizer producer with a portfolio for Grupa Azoty from PLN 86.10 to PLN 65.50 per share, with the consisting among others of nitrogen fertilizers (with annual maximum production at 2.0-2.1mmt of investment rating downgraded from buy to hold. nitrate fertilizer, 0.7mmt of ammonium nitrate, 0.7mmt of ammonium sulfate, 1.2mmt of UAN, and Grupa Azoty posts weak second quarter of 2016 0.2mmt of "AdBlue" technical urea), compound On a higher sales volume, Grupa Azoty reported disappointing profits in Q2 fertilizers (1.8mmt max), caprolactam (170,000 2016, led by the Fertilizer business. With EBITDA per ton of fertilizer sold in tons), PA6 (92,000 tons), melamine (96,000 tons), the period shrunken by about one-third compared to Q2 2015, the total plasticizers (83,500 tons), OXO alcohols (205,000 quarterly EBITDA fell 39% short of the market estimate, and the net profit tons), and titanium white (40,000 tons). Grupa Azoty is a top-two fertilizer producer in Poland missed the consensus by 63%. The worsened profitability of fertilizer sales alongside Anwil. was additionally exacerbated by an unexpected increase in SG&A expenses. ATT vs. WIG Europe trails World on wheat harvest 120 The USDA predicts that due to adverse weather conditions the European wheat supply in the 2016/2017 season will be 7.8% lower than in the PLN previous season. At the same time, a much higher harvest is expected in former Soviet states and in North America. The resulting oversupply on a 105 global scale, while the local yields tighten, is likely to reduce the purchasing power of EU farmers, with demand for fertilizers further dampened by the fact that the soil needs less fertilizer after a poorer harvest. 90 Gas costs due to fall again in Q3 Low prices of natural gas fuel help mitigate weak demand for fertilizers at Grupa Azoty, and in Q3 2016 we expect the Company's gas costs to go down 75 3%. ATT WIG Scaled-back CAPEX Grupa Azoty has recently revised its planned 2016 capital expenditures from 60 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 the original PLN 2.0bn to PLN 1.6bn after reviewing the projects lined up by the former Management Board. Within the next few months, given that it Target Price Rating spent only PLN 0.55bn in the first half of the year, we expect the Company Company to cut the CAPEX budget further to ca. PLN 1.4bn. new old new old Grupa Azoty 65.50 86.10 hold buy Current Target Upside / (PLN m) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Company Price Price Downside Revenue 9,898.5 10,024.4 9,260.1 9,760.0 9,896.4 Grupa Azoty 64.79 65.50 +1.1% EBITDA 822.4 1,309.3 1,204.9 1,114.7 1,268.6 Forecast revision 2016E 2017E 2018E EBITDA margin 8.3% 13.1% 13.0% 11.4% 12.8% since last update EBIT 302.2 830.0 709.4 584.1 686.4 Revenue -5.3% -1.5% -2.2% Net profit 231.4 609.5 507.6 399.4 458.6 EBITDA -15.9% -15.5% -11.6% DPS 0.42 0.00 0.84 1.54 2.42 Net profit -21.9% -25.6% -20.9% P/E 27.8 10.5 12.7 16.1 14.0 P/CE 8.6 5.9 6.4 6.9 6.2 Analyst: P/BV 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 EV/EBITDA 9.2 5.5 6.3 7.3 6.6 Jakub Szkopek +48 22 438 24 03 DYield 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 2.4% 3.7% [email protected] Market Outlook World biggest wheat-producing regions (mmt), 2012-2017 Crop Harvest 180 160 The US Department of Agriculture projects the 2016/2017 140 global wheat harvest at 728 million tons after a year- 120 on-year rise of 1.2%, driven by a record expected average yield of 3.37 tons per hectare led by former Soviet 100 states, North America, and South Asia. As a result, the 80 Agency anticipates the fourth consecutive season of 60 growing world supplies , with the stocks-to-use ratio kept high at close to 35%. 40 20 Global wheat production and consumption (mmt, 0 lhs), and average yield (t/ha, rhs), 2000-2017P East Asia EU28 F. Soviet North South Asia 800 4.0 States America 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 700 3.5 Source: USDA, Dom Maklerski mBanku 600 3.0 500 2.5 Net wheat exports by region (mmt), 2012-2017 400 2.0 50 300 1.5 40 200 1.0 100 0.5 30 0 0.0 20 10 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Production Consumption Yield per hectare 0 Source: USDA, Dom Maklerski mBanku -10 Global wheat stocks (mmt, lhs) and stocks-to-use -20 ratio (%, rhs), 2000-2017 East Asia EU28 F. Soviet North South Asia States America 300 40% 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 35% 250 Source: USDA, Dom Maklerski mBanku 30% 200 25% The USDA also anticipates a record global corn harvest 150 20% in the 2016/2017 season at a projected 1,028mmt after a 7.2% y/y jump, resulting in a high stocks-to-usage 15% 100 ratio above 20% . 10% 50 5% The areas where the corn harvest is expected to be the highest this year are North America and South 0 0% America, with the latter, similarly to the wheat-producing former Soviet States, able to offer low dollar prices in the 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 wake of local currency depreciation. Stocks Stock/Usage ratio Global corn production and consumption (mmt, lhs), Source: USDA, Dom Maklerski mBanku and average yield (t/ha, rhs), 2000-2017P At the same time, the USDA's forecast for Europe is that, 1,200 7 due to adverse weather conditions (flooding, heavy rainfall 6 during planned harvest), the European wheat supply in 1,000 the 2016/2017 season will be 7.8% lower than in 5 800 the previous season . Contrary to what we had assumed 4 earlier, however, the lower harvest in Europe will not result 600 in a reduction in the global oversupply. 3 400 2 After a high harvest, shipments of wheat from the former Soviet states and from North America are due to increase 200 1 in the 2016/2017 season, putting downward pressure on 0 0 global prices. This effect will be compounded by the fact that, after a sharp depreciation in their respective local currencies in the last three years, exporters in Ukraine, 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Kazakhstan, and Russia can generate high profit margins Production Consumption Yield per hectare even as global wheat prices decline. Source: USDA, Dom Maklerski mBanku 2 Global corn stocks (mmt, lhs) and stocks-to-use Fertilizer Market ratio (%, rhs), 2000-2017 250 35% The expected low prices of basic crops will most likely affect the purchasing power of EU-based farmers, with 30% 200 implications for fertilizer producers. In Poland, a 5% 25% higher grain harvest and a bigger vegetable harvest will be offset by a 10-20% lower rapeseed harvest this year. What 150 20% is more, the lower crop yields anticipated in Europe, 100 15% leaving the soil less depleted of nutrients, may mean reduced fertilizer purchases for the 2017 planting 10% 50 season.