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Creating a Common Financial Zone in the Qianhai Region

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A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Michael, Bryane; Sharif, Naubahar; Park, Seung-Ho Preprint The Optimal Design of the Qianhai Special Economic Zone Suggested Citation: Michael, Bryane; Sharif, Naubahar; Park, Seung-Ho (2015) : The Optimal Design of the Qianhai Special Economic Zone, ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Kiel und Hamburg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/157389 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu The Optimal Design of the Qianhai Special Economic Zone Bryane Michael, University of Hong Kong Naubahar Sharif, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Seung Ho Park, China Europe International Business School Abstract Qianhai – an innovation park in Shenzhen – has the possibility of boosting innovation in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and in the wider region. This paper analyses the costs and benefits of existing plans for Qianhai and discusses the profit-maximising design of the Qianhai. We review existing evidence about which policies have promoted profitable innovation in the Qianhai region (Hong Kong and Shenzhen) in the past. We also show how a raft of legal changes concomitant with Hong Kong-Shenzhen development of Qianhai can increase innovation-led profits in the two jurisdictions. Some of these changes touch upon the mandate and organisation of the Qianhai Authority itself, and relatively poor-performing innovation agencies and schemes especially in Hong Kong. We find that such a zone would increase innovation-led profits in the logistics, IT, and other Qianhai-targeted sectors by a factor of four in the short-run and a factor of ten in the longer run. As a contribution to the wider field of innovation policy, we derive a model of the optimal innovation agency. That model shows the equilibrium and optimal levels of profits, R&D spending and cash/investment for innovative companies in a particular jurisdiction. JEL Codes: P48, R12, R58, Keywords: Qianhai, cross-border economic zones, innovation, special economic zones. Disclaimer: This paper represents an attempt to use the tools of legal and economic analysis to provide interesting new insights and ideas for the establishment and development of the Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone (Qianhai). We have not consulted with the Hong Kong or Shenzhen governments on this project – and nothing in this paper represents their views or tacit approval. Co-authors may not necessarily agree with all the contents of this paper and nothing in this paper necessarily reflects the views of the organisations to which the authors’ affiliate. Nothing in this paper represents investment or legal advice. Acknowledgement: Special thanks to the Hong Kong Research Grant Council’s Theme Based Research scheme for funding. Contents Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................... 3 What Do We Know About Finance and Innovation in the Qianhai Region?................................................................. 6 Overview................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Literature Review...................................................................................................................................................... 9 Looking Specifically at the Qianhai Region............................................................................................................ 28 The Legal and Administrative Design of a Qianhai Modern Service Industry Cooperation Area............................... 35 Legal background.................................................................................................................................................... 35 The 2018 Hong Kong-Shenzhen Agreement on Qianhai........................................................................................ 39 Privatizing the Qianhai Authority ........................................................................................................................... 43 A New Agreement on Industry-Academic Research Cooperation.......................................................................... 46 Costing of the Development Plan............................................................................................................................ 53 Getting Hong Kong Ready for Qianhai................................................................................................................... 56 The Effect of Qianhai Cooperation on Innovation in the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Region ............................................ 59 Overview of the model and statistical tests ............................................................................................................. 59 What affects our model variables? .......................................................................................................................... 61 Promoting innovation in the short-term .................................................................................................................. 65 Finding and changing equilibrium profits for the Qianhai region........................................................................... 68 Optimal profits and the costs/benefits of a Qianhai Authority................................................................................ 73 How Should the Qianhai Authority Plan its Reform Over the Next 5-10 years? .................................................... 75 Conclusions.................................................................................................................................................................. 77 Appendix I: Qianhai’s Preferential Policies and Sectors ............................................................................................. 79 Appendix II: Details for the Costing of Qianhai Scheme............................................................................................. 81 Appendix III: Overview of the Model of Innovation-Led Profitability Model for Qianhai......................................... 89 Appendix IV: Statistical Modelling of the Qianhai Innovation-Led Profitability Model ............................................ 98 Variable definitions and summary statistics............................................................................................................ 98 Background on modelling analysis ....................................................................................................................... 104 Likely values of parameters used in our models ................................................................................................... 106 Equilibrium and profit maximisation .................................................................................................................... 108 Looking at dynamic properties of Qianhai model................................................................................................. 110 Appendix V: Raw Econometric Results..................................................................................................................... 112 Evidence for Effect on Profits............................................................................................................................... 112 Evidence about Revenue ....................................................................................................................................... 117 What affects R&D? ............................................................................................................................................... 121 Effects of R&D and profitability on “Cash” ......................................................................................................... 122 Evidence for other empirical observations............................................................................................................ 127 Dynamic values..................................................................................................................................................... 131 Appendix V: Mathematics in Our Modelling and Statistical Procedures..................................................................
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