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Defeating the Islamist Extremists: a Global Strategy for Combating Al Qaeda and the Islamic State

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Defeating the Islamist Extremists: a Global Strategy for Combating Al Qaeda and the Islamic State AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE DEFEATING THE ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS: A GLOBAL STRATEGY FOR COMBATING AL QAEDA AND THE ISLAMIC STATE OPENING DISCUSSION: GENERAL MICHAEL T. FLYNN, US ARMY (RET.); FREDERICK W. KAGAN, AEI PANELISTS: MARY HABECK, AEI; SETH JONES, RAND CORPORATION; KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN, AEI MODERATOR: FREDERICK W. KAGAN, AEI 2:30 PM – 4:30 PM MONDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2015 EVENT PAGE: http://www.aei.org/events/defeating-the-islamist-extremists-a- global-strategy-for-combating-al-qaeda-and-the-islamic-state/ TRANSCRIPT PROVIDED BY DC TRANSCRIPTION – WWW.DCTMR.COM FREDERICK KAGAN: Live from Washington, it’s not Saturday night. Good afternoon everyone. That’s probably the extent of the levity we’ll have this afternoon talking about the topic that faces us. Thank you all very much for coming. Obviously, a very difficult time. We’ve been able to say that, I think, a lot over the last few months and I’m afraid that in the circumstances we’re probably going to be having to say that for quite some time. We are here today to talk about the state of the war with al Qaeda and ISIS globally. We had the president articulate his take on that, I suppose, last night, but I think a lot of people are understandably confused about what is actually going on and, more to the point – what should be done. I think it is not as hard to understand what’s actually going on as is being made out, but it is very difficult, I think, to figure out what to do. We have a report that we’re releasing today that is an attempt to get after that. And we will talk about that some more in a little bit. But first, I have the great pleasure to introduce our first guest today, General – Lieutenant General Retired Mike Flynn, who’s last assignment in government was as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. I had the privilege of meeting General Flynn in Afghanistan, in 2009, I believe, when he was the head of intelligence there working with General Stan McChrystal. And I have been continually impressed by a lot of things about General Flynn ever since then. And I think he really epitomizes a lot that is best in our intelligence community, in our military and our government service. He wrote an article that was rather controversial at the time and I supposed remains so, on how to fix intelligence, which focused on the importance and value of using open source intelligence, among other things, a topic that is very dear to our hearts here at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, where we fancy ourselves an open source intelligence organization of a sort. But he also focused heavily on the importance of understanding the cultures of the societies that one is operating amongst, which is so clearly vital to any hope of understanding the kinds of problems that we face in coming up with solutions. And lastly, I want to also say one of the remarkable things about General Flynn and also a couple of his successors was the way that he and they interacted with me. When I was in Afghanistan as a civilian, my official position became interloper. LIEUTENANT GENERAL (RET.) MICHAEL FLYNN: He used the word “became” because he wasn’t really sure what he was going to do when he first got there. MR. KAGAN: That’s quite – that’s right. Well, I had a sort of a quality official – at least General McChrystal invited me over to do something specific and subsequently I was there as an invited guest. Having a lot of opinions for commenting generals, which most bureaucrats and senior officers would not have been very welcoming toward. When civilians come in with bright ideas and pass them along to the boss, that’s not usually something that endears you to, for example, the head of intelligence. But General Flynn was always only interested in getting it right and understanding what was going on as best he could, seeking out the best ideas from wherever they might come, and finding ways to implement them. And I think that, to my mind, is the hallmark to the finest attributes of the people who serve in our military and our intelligence community. And so I’m really thrilled and honored to have General Flynn with us here today. LT. GEN. FLYNN: I appreciate it. MR. KAGAN: Thank you, Sir. So I’m going to start with an easy question. We have this war going with al Qaeda and ISIS. President gave his view yesterday about how it is. What’s your take? How are we doing? LT. GEN. FLYNN: So you know, let me just – I’m going to like move around a little bit, not physically, but intellectually, sort of tactical to strategic and then back. And it may not be in any kind of order if you’re expecting an order from me. And you know, the request to be here was a few weeks ago, before Paris, before San Bernardino, before the speech last night that the president gave. So it’s fascinating that, you know, I mean, you know, just going back and forth, I wasn’t sure about time, but it’s important because I don’t see myself as an activist, I see myself as a national security advocate. And I, like I said to about 10 million listeners this morning on a live video broadcast that I want to cheer for the president of the United States. I want to cheer for my president. I want to cheer for my country. And I find it very difficult to cheer for what is going on right now because there’s very little to cheer because there’s not a lot of confidence and there’s definitely not a lot of clarity. So all that said, so much has happened in like a month, and this was probably the request to sit here today was like maybe six weeks ago. In fact, I even think it was before the attack in Lebanon, the attacks in Lebanon and the downing of the aircraft. So, fascinating the speed at which things are unfolding. So today, today, right now, right now – I just mentioned this to – because I just got it as I was literally coming into the building – an alert that I get. And I – you know – it came from a good source. Today, West Point U.S. Military Academy – any West Pointers in here? Yeah. Well, West Point is on high alert right now. It’s on the highest level of alert they’ve ever been on because – and the federal level and state level are sending bio and chemical Hazmat teams to the United States Military Academy at West Point. Right now, right now because of a credible alert – a credible threat to West Point. It’s completely locked down. So you know, google it because it’s sort of the first report, but it came from a good media source that I know. So there are things that are unfolding in front of our eyes that we have to recognize them for what they are. And this – I’ve been very passionate for years about clearly defining the enemy that we’re facing. You have to. You can’t kid about this. You can’t – you know, and so that clear definition requires really precise language – really, really, really, really precise language. Because until you have clearly done that, you clearly identified that enemy, you can’t get into – from sort of an intel analytic perspective and certainly an intel officer who’s served in a variety of intel jobs over the years, you can’t start to break down, you know, the strengths, weaknesses, vulnerabilities, and all the aspects of this enemy that we are facing. And when you – so if you’re at a tactical level, you know, I – to stay close contact with a lot of people – the tactical level, they’re able to kind of do that, but if you don’t have that strategic top cover and, you know, when you’re trying to push what it is that you’re trying to do up the chain, then nothing is going to happen or is going to happen at a pace that is not capable of actually achieving the mission that the president actually stated a number of years ago – a number of years ago. So I said I’m going to jump around a little bit. And I’ll, you know, pause in a second here, Fred, to just maybe throw some other questions or something. Al-Baghdadi, he actually was captured twice. Most people don’t know that. They think that, you know, people remember, well, he’s in – you know, we had him one time. We actually had him twice and we hunted him. You know, we hunted him like others that we hunted and captured or killed. But he was actually in prison twice. So he had two opportunities to build and thicken and reinforce an ideology that he absolutely believes in. You know, when you think about bin Laden and Zawahiri, when they get in front of a video camera, you know, what are they wearing and what are they carrying and what are they saying? So a lot of them, a lot of their videos, you go back and look at them, you know, a couple of them, maybe it’s in it one individual, and they’re sitting there cross- legged.
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