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Private Equity Confindence Survrey Healthy appetite Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe December 2017 Healthy appetite | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe This publication contains general information only. The publication has been prepared on the basis of information and forecasts in the public domain. None of the information on which the publication is based has been independently verified by Deloitte and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, any of its member firms or any of the foregoing’s affiliates (collectively the “Deloitte Network”) take any responsibility for the content thereof. No entity in the Deloitte Network nor any of their affiliates nor their respective members, directors, employees and agents accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness, or in relation to the use by any recipient, of the information, projections or opinions contained in the publication and no entity in Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies thereon. 02 Healthy appetite | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Introduction What a difference a year makes. Last autumn In many ways then, the temperature in the world was reacting to the surprise EU the market now is similar to that of ten years Referendum result, with many investors ago, particularly when it comes to debt. becoming defensive almost overnight. Our European leveraged loan volumes reached Central European (CE) private equity (PE) €58bn for H1 2017, up 1.9x on the same Confidence Survey reflected this. Now, with period in 2016, according to a report by an incredible first three quarters of the year Marlborough Partners1. It may be that frothy and a hat-trick of headline-grabbing exits leverage markets seen in Western Europe casting a positive light on the region’s ability are making their way East, and with froth to deliver returns, deal-doers are confident, comes downward pricing pressure on capital with the Index increasing markedly to 130 in as lenders vie to win deals, making deal our latest survey. funding relatively inexpensive for sponsors. With leverage already readily available for Respondents are assured of CE PE’s ability deals across Europe and more than a fifth of to deliver deals – larger than before, with respondents expecting it become even more 36% expecting sizes to increase, the highest available, it is indeed reminiscent of a decade level in a decade. This is likely on the back of ago. ample leverage to fund them. And driving this as well as because of this, fundraising Fortunately the economy, forecast to grow Mark Jung has seen a boon, with regional heavyweights at an 11-year high of 4.1% for this year2, is Partner, Private Equity Leader Enterprise Investors and Abris Capital expected to remain buoyant, with more than Deloitte Central Europe Partners raising €1bn between them for their a quarter of respondents (26%) expecting latest funds, announced just a week apart in an improvement over the coming months. September. A number of the region’s mid- This is up more than three-fold from a year market players have also had fundraising ago, with Poland and Romania – some of CE’s success: Innova was nearing a first close on core markets for PE – driving this growth. €200m for its sixth fund, ARX was nearing a final close on its fourth fund at €95m, And perhaps because of the positive Mezzanine Management held a first close economic backdrop as well as liquid leverage for its fourth fund in June 2017, BaltCap hit markets, sponsors are clearly hungry for a €40m first close for its growth fund. V4C deals, with two-thirds of respondents formally launched its latest fund this year, intending to focus mostly on this over setting a hard cap of €150m. The team the coming months. expects to announce a first close early in the New Year. In short, there are many We remain encouraged by the continued strong votes of confidence coming in from uptick of CE this year, and look forward international institutional investors for CE PE. to continuing to work with CE deal doers to identify opportunities and build local This is down to a wider, general increase in businesses. interest in global PE as well as the region’s own growing track record. The last 18 months have seen an acceleration of exits in the region, which is what investors had long complained were conspicuous by their absence in the region previously. Three large Mark Jung ones made headlines internationally owing Partner, Private Equity Leader to their size: Zabka, Profi and Dino. These Deloitte Central Europe 1 www.marlboroughpartners.com/marlborough-partners- caught the attention of investors looking for q2-2017-report sizeable returns. 2 www.focus-economics.com/regions/central-and-eastern- europe 03 Healthy appetite | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Central European Private Equity Index: Key findings The heightened pace of activity is set to continue in Central Europe, respondents expecting sizes to increase – the highest level in more with a number of factors supporting the Index’s rise. In line with than a decade since the heyday of spring 2017. This is in marked the spring survey, two-thirds of respondents expect to focus contrast to the last Deloitte survey of May 2017, when a polarised mostly on buying in the coming months. Their appetite may be market meant a fifth thought they’d increase and another fifth boosted by the ability to finance these deals, given a doubling of expected a decrease. respondents expecting leverage to become more available (21%). This is the highest level in two years. The Index has rebounded more strongly over the last six months to end on 130. The uptick, from 113 in the spring, is encouraging as it A stable, buoyant economy has long underpinned deal-doers’ marks the highest level in three years. confidence, and indeed more than a quarter of respondents (26%) expect an improvement over the coming months, up more than As tends to be the case, confidence is bolstered by a strong three-fold from a year ago. economy, and 90% of respondents expect the backdrop to remain the same (64%) or improve (26%) over coming months. And this means deal sizes are expected to increase. The aforementioned ample leverage in the markets may be A benign economic backdrop will help leverage markets remain giving deal-doers confidence to pursue larger deals, with 36% of liquid, and this too should help confidence. Central Europe PE Confidence Index 180 159 156 154 155 153 160 148 149 153 144 139 140 138 140 130 127 124 130 118 117 114 120 109 113 102 101 101 100 92 100 78 80 70 71 60 48 40 20 - 7 5 14 15 13 12 13 11 12 10 11 09 10 08 09 07 08 16 17 07 06 14 03 04 05 16 03 04 05 06 t. 20 t. 20 t. 20 t. 20 t. 20 t. 20 t. 20 t. 20 p.201 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 r. 20 p. 20 p. 20 p. 20 p. 20 p. 20 Se Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Se Se Se Se Se Mar. 20 Mar. 20 Mar. 20 Mar. 20 Nov. 201 04 Healthy appetite | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Survey Results Economic Climate For this period, I expect the overall economic climate to: 2% 100% 4% 7% 9% 10% 9% 8% 10% 10% 10% 16% 90% 18% 21% 28% 27% 33% 30% 80% 31% 51% 70% 59% 55% 57% 47% 66% 61% 60% 62% 60% 68% 93% 74% 64% 50% 64% 74% 49% 69% 40% 67% 63% 63% 30% 62% 43% 43% 20% 39% 43% 41% 34% 32% 30% 29% 26% 10% 24% 24% 18% 16% 11% 3% 7% 6% 10% 7% 0% 5% Oct. 2007Apr. 2008 Oct. 2008Apr. 2009 Oct. 2009 Apr. 2010 Oct. 2010Apr. 2011 Oct. 2011Apr. 2012Oct. 2012Apr. 2013Oct. 2013Apr. 2014 Sep. 2014 Apr. 2015 Sep. 2015 Apr. 2016 Sep. 2016 Apr. 2017 Nov. 2017 Decline Remain the same Improve Economic confidence has continued its rise, with more than The pessimists expecting a deterioration remain at a low 10%, flat a quarter of respondents (26%) expecting an improvement over on last survey, suggesting a real change from just a year ago when the coming months, up more than three-fold from a year ago. 30% were expecting conditions to worsen – possibly because that Nearly two-thirds expect the backdrop to remain the same – survey was conducted in the wake of the Brexit vote. equally encouraging given growth in the region has had a strong run, with 4.1% forecast for this year, an 11-year high3. Tight labour markets and rebounding investment were cited as drivers of this growth, with Poland and Romania – core markets for CE deal-doers – leading the way. Economic Climate (April 2017 vs November 2017) 10% 10% 16% 26% April 10% 0% November 2017 -10% 2017 74% 64% Improve Remain the same Decline 3 www.focus-economics.com/regions/central-and-eastern-europe 05 Healthy appetite | Private Equity Confidence Survey Central Europe Debt availability For this period, I expect availability of debt finance to: 3% 100% 5% 4% 4% 5% 7% 10% 10% 16% 14% 13% 90% 19% 21% 31% 30% 80% 46% 52% 70% 61% 64% 61% 57% 63% 60% 78% 69% 17% 75% 79% 67% 87% 50% 76% 67% 70% 83% 76% 40% 77% 36% 69% 30% 53% 48% 20% 39% 38% 37% 36% 33% 27% 10% 18% 22% 18% 21% 14% 3% 14% 16% 14% 3% 9% 7% 10% 0% Oct.
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