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Putin Boxed in by Lukashenko

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Putin Boxed in by Lukashenko WWW.BNE.EU Leading Russian supermarket chain Magnit buys rival Dixy Baltic states want to ensure the golden goose keeps producing unicorns June 2021 Mongolia’s apocalyptic sandstorms Money laundering pushes up property prices in Western Balkan cities PUTIN BOXED IN BY LUKASHENKO 10 megatrends shaping Meet “The Botox”, Kyrgyzstan’s gold grab emerging Europe in the the mafia boss who’s p.62 post-pandemic 2020s singing like a canary p.38 about the Erdogan regime on YouTube p.52 ISSN 2059-2736 ISSN 2 I Contents bne June 2021 Senior editorial board Ben Aris editor-in-chief & publisher I Berlin 20 +49 17664016602 I [email protected] Clare Nuttall news editor I Glasgow +44 7766 513641 I [email protected] William Conroy editor Eurasia & SE Europe I Prague +420 774 849 172 I [email protected] ——— Subscriptions Stephen Vanson 5 18 London I +44 753 529 6546 [email protected] ——— COMPANIES & MARKETS Advertising 4 Poland says it will not 17 Russian supermarket business Elena Arbuzova comply with EU court’s order rapidly consolidating as Lenta buys business development director I Moscow +7 9160015510 I [email protected] to stop Turow mine Billa Russia to become second- ——— largest chain in Moscow 5 Hungary turns down EU's Design €9.4bn recovery fund 18 The average income of couriers is Olga Gusarova credit line up to twice the average regional art director I London salary +44 7738783240 I [email protected] 6 Centerra files arbitration suit as Kyrgyzstan moves to seize 19 Baltic states want to ensure the Please direct comments, letters, press releases Kumtor gold mine golden goose keeps producing and other editorial enquires to [email protected] unicorns 7 Russian ice cream All rights reserved. No part of this publication consumption to hit new 21 Turkey may be ripe for external may be reproduced, stored in or introduced to any record of 3.1kg per person debt crisis says Wells Fargo retrival system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or other means of transmission, without 8 What happens if Russia’s 22 After a new acquisition, Sber wants express written permission of the publisher. The mortgage subsidy to become a central player in the opinions or recommendations are not necessar- programme ends? Russian digital music market ily those of the publisher or contributing authors, including the submissions to bne by third parties. No liability can be attached to the publisher for 11 Serbia aims to boost energy 22 Bulgaria to get region's most these comments, nor for inaccuracies, errors and mining sector to 10% of powerful supercomputer or omissions. Investment decisions or related actions taken on the basis of views or opinions GDP in 10 years that appear herein are the responsibility of the 23 Russia’s weather goes crazy reader and the publisher, contributors and related 12 Turkey’s TAV seals buyout parties cannot be held liable for these actions. of 85% stake in Almaty 25 Global warming will open up bne Intellinews is published by International Airport Russia’s Far North to agriculture Emerging Markets Direct OU over next two dec-ades 13 Bucharest Stock Exchange Print issue: sets new records as it 26 Lukoil oil spill headed towards £4.50 /$6.75 /€5.90 . €499 / year shrugs off the coronacrisis the Barents Sea 15 Leading Russian 27 The EU’s Green Deal: Putting Follow us on supermarket chain Magnit a carbon price on imports twitter.com/bneintellinews buys rival Dixy Sign up to FREE electronic version of bne monthly magazine OR buy a print subscription at bne.eu/subscribe bne June 2021 Contents I 3 41 46 54 COVER FEATURE EASTERN EUROPE 31 Putin boxed in by Lukashenko 54 Belarus forces a Ryanair commercial plane to land 34 EU to target Belarusian in Minsk and arrests top potash exports opposition Nexta journalist 57 Russia and US to kiss and make up? Blinken and CENTRAL EUROPE Lavrov meeting in Reykjavik 38 10 megatrends shaping 59 Russian business confidence 71 emerging Europe in the post- index rises to zero for the pandemic 2020s first time in eight years 41 Central Europe joins the EV 61 Belarus introduces new revolution restrictions on political 71 Kazakhs’ loathing of parties and media encroaching China rises 44 Czech former president Vaclav as Lake Balkhash falls Klaus reportedly secretly sent a loan to Soviet Un-ion after 74 Philanthropy in Russia – revolution EURASIA not for the faint-hearted 45 Romanian, Polish presidents 62 Kyrgyzstan’s gold grab call for stronger Nato presence on the eastern flank 65 Mongolia’s apocalyptic NEW EUROPE IN NUMBERS sandstorms 77 Russia’s Watcom shopping index stages recovery in SOUTHEAST EUROPE April and May, shopping only OPINION 10% below 2019 levels 46 Money laundering pushes up property prices in Western 68 The five Stans back in the Balkan cities Game 49 Tourism’s long road to recovery 70 Uzbekistan’s Capital Markets Development Agency 52 Meet “The Botox”, the mafia restructured as privatisation boss who’s singing like looms a canary about the Erdogan regime on YouTube 4 I Companies & Markets bne June 2021 Mining must stop at Turow immediately until the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) reviews the Czechs’ complaint against plans to expand the mine. Poland says it will not comply with EU court’s order to stop Turow mine Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw oland is in for another major tussle with the EU after scope of the concession”, it does not need an environmental the bloc’s top court issued an interim measure on May impact assessment. P21 to stop lignite mining at the Turow mine near the border with Czechia. Poland says it will not comply because However, the CJEU said that the law in question may well of energy security issues. infringe the EU’s Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Directive. Mining must stop at Turow immediately until the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) reviews the Czechs’ complaint “It cannot be ruled out … that the Polish legislation infringes against plans to expand the mine, as put forward by its the requirements of the EIA Directive, according to which, in operator, Poland’s state-controlled power company PGE. substance, the extension of an open-cast mining project must be subject to an environmental impact assessment or, at least, In early 2020, Poland allowed PGE to keep mining lignite prior verification of the need for such an assessment,” the – which feeds the adjacent Turow power plant, a major court said in a statement. installation supplying up to 7% of Polish electricity – until 2026. In a typical lignite mine-power plant set up, lignite must be “It cannot be ruled out … that the fed to the plant on the spot, as it cannot be moved so easily as coal, for example on trains. Polish legislation infringes the requirements of the EIA Directive, The Czechs filed their lawsuit at the CJEU in February, claiming that Poland granted the extension of the mine’s operations according to which, in substance, without carrying out an environmental impact assessment. the extension of an open-cast Poland says that the assessment was not necessary. In line mining project must be subject to an with Polish law, if a mining extension is “motivated by rational management of the deposit without extending the environmental impact assessment” www.bne.eu bne June 2021 Companies & Markets I 5 The court also listened to the Czechs’ argument that to Czechia welcomed the court’s decision although it does not yet keep mining in Turow will likely mean considerable mean that the final verdict will shut down the Turow mine – outflows of groundwater from the Czech Republic to and the Turow power plant – for good. Poland. Open cast mines like Turow typically cause such outflows from nearby locations. "Mining activity not only has a negative effect on the rights of the citizens at the Czech-Polish border to water as mining Poland promised to build a screen to keep water on the Czech affects the groundwater level, but also on the quality of the side but its construction will not be completed until 2023. environment and property of the citizens," Czech Environment The damage to the water table that will take place by that Minister Richard Brabec said, according to Reuters. time is not reversible, the CJEU noted. Poland hinted very strongly it would not comply with the The CJEU also dismissed Poland’s argument that shutting CJEU’s interim measure. down the Turow power plant, which would inevitably ensue once mining is stopped, would pose a threat to the stability “The Polish government will not take any actions that could of energy supply. jeopardise Poland's energy security,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in a statement. “The electricity network operators are able to balance the electricity network in order to compensate for such Poland derives around 70% of its electricity from coal- and unavailability,” the court said. lignite-fired power plants and only plans to wean itself off the commodity completely by 2049. Hungary turns down EU's €9.4bn recovery fund credit line bne IntelliNews ungary has decided at the last minute not to take any in practice," adding that that was linked to "systemic loans under the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility irregularities" that "led to the highest financial correction H(RRF), meaning that it has had to redraw its recovery in the history of (EU) structural funds in 2019". fund plans, for which the official deadline was April 30. By contrast, the Hungarian government is painting its decision Hungary will avail itself of the full amount of grant money not to draw the credit line as coming from its commitment to available to the country in the framework of the RRF, but fiscal probity, despite the fact that it has taken out some much would draw the RRF credit line only for project-based more expensive loans from Russia and China in recent years.
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