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Financial Inclusion Public Disclosure Authorized Europe and Central Asia Economic Update Office of the Chief Economist Spring 2019 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized WORLD BANK ECA ECONOMIC UPDATE SPRING 2019 Financial Inclusion Office of the Chief Economist © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2019. “Financial Inclusion.” Europe and Central Asia Economic Update (Spring), Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1409-9. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party- owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re- use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1409-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1409-9 Cover design: Lauren Kaley Johnson Contents Acknowledgments ............................................................... v Abbreviations ................................................................... vii Regional Classification Used in this Report ............................................ ix Executive Summary ............................................................... xi PART I: Economic Outlook . 1 1 The Global Context . 3 Overall Trends ............................................................... 3 Europe and Central Asia: Recent Developments and Outlook .......................... 7 Annex: Data and Forecast Conventions ............................................ 14 References ................................................................... 15 2 Financial Inclusion in Europe and Central Asia . 17 Why Does Financial Inclusion Matter? ............................................. 17 Growth in Account Ownership Is Uneven in Europe and Central Asia .................... 18 Inequality in Account Ownership Is High in Parts of the Region ......................... 20 Who Remains Unbanked in Europe and Central Asia? ................................ 24 Lack of Trust in Banks Is a Major Barrier to Account Ownership ......................... 25 Use of Accounts for Payments Is Increasing in the Region’s Developing Economies ......... 27 Use of Digitalized Accounts Is Also Rising .......................................... 28 Informal Saving and Borrowing Is Prevalent in Developing Economies of ECA ............. 32 Digital Technology Provides Opportunities to Enhance Financial Inclusion ................ 39 Policy Makers Can Increase Account Ownership and Use in Various Ways ................. 40 Future Directions of Our Work ................................................... 41 Annex: Survey Methodology. 42 References ................................................................... 44 Part II: Selected Country Pages . 45 Albania ...................................................................... 47 Armenia ..................................................................... 49 Azerbaijan ................................................................... 51 Belarus ...................................................................... 53 Bosnia and Herzegovina ........................................................ 55 Bulgaria ..................................................................... 57 Croatia ...................................................................... 59 Georgia ..................................................................... 61 Kazakhstan ................................................................... 63 Kosovo ...................................................................... 65 Kyrgyz Republic ............................................................... 67 Moldova ..................................................................... 69 Montenegro .................................................................. 71 North Macedonia ............................................................. 73 Poland ...................................................................... 75 Romania ..................................................................... 77 iii iv ● World Bank ECA Economic Update Spring 2019 Russian Federation ............................................................ 79 Serbia ....................................................................... 81 Tajikistan .................................................................... 83 Turkey ...................................................................... 85 Turkmenistan ................................................................. 87 Ukraine ...................................................................... 89 Uzbekistan ................................................................... 91 Boxes 2.1 Financial inclusion in Turkey: Insights from the 2017 Global Findex Survey ........... 26 2.2 Financial inclusion in the European Union: Insights from the 2017 Global Findex Survey ........................................................... 39 Map 2.1 Account ownership varies significantly across the world .......................... 19 Figures 1.1 Global economic outlook ................................................. 4 1.2 Long-term economic challenges facing Europe and Central Asia ................... 12 2.1 Account ownership in Europe and Central Asia varies widely by subregion ........... 20 2.2 The gender gap in account ownership persists ................................. 22 2.3 The gender gap in account ownership varies widely within Europe and Central Asia ... 22 2.4 Inequality in account ownership remains high in Turkey .......................... 24 2.5 The income gap in account ownership remains large in some countries in Europe and Central Asia ............................................................ 25 2.6 The share of adults making or receiving digital payments ranges from 25 to 83 percent in Europe and Central Asia ................................................ 29 2.7 Use of a mobile phone or the Internet to access an account varies widely within Europe and Central Asia .................................................. 31 2.8 Percent of online buyers paying in cash and online in total population .............. 33 2.9 Formal saving is more common in high-income economies than in developing economies ............................................................. 34 2.10 The share of adults who saved formally savings was low in most developing economies in Europe and Central Asia ................................................ 35 2.11 People in high-income countries rely on formal sources for borrowing, whereas people in developing countries tend to rely on family or friends ......................... 36 2.12 Informal borrowing is prevalent in most developing economies in the region ......... 37 2.13 Financial resilience is much higher in high-income countries than in developing economies ............................................................. 38 2.14 People in developing economies of Europe and Central
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