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Assessment of Meteorological Drought Characteristics Using Standardized Precipitation Index for Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India

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Assessment of Meteorological Drought Characteristics Using Standardized Precipitation Index for Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(2): 1343-1354 International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences ISSN: 2319-7706 Volume 9 Number 2 (2020) Journal homepage: http://www.ijcmas.com Original Research Article https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.902.157 Assessment of Meteorological Drought characteristics using Standardized precipitation Index for Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India Gaurav Sharma¹, Chandra Kishor Kumar¹* and Ankit Kumar² ¹Department of Farm Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi-221005, Uttar Pradesh ²Regional Centre, National Institute of Hydrology, Bhopal-462 016, Madhya Pradesh, India *Corresponding author ABSTRACT The water resources sector is one of the key sectors facing several challenges in the context of burgeoning population and large scale unsustainable exploitation which will K e yw or ds have its consequences for our future generations. More and more areas have to be brought under agriculture to provide the food security to the growing population. The unplanned Drought severity, Rainfall departure, interventions in the form of deforestation and conversion of forest areas into agricultural Relative departure land and conversion of agriculture areas to urban centres have its own set of impacts. The index, Standardized adverse effects are visible with reduced water availability and many areas experiencing Precipitation Index droughts on a regular basis. Drought scenario for Ajmer district has been analysed using drought indices namely rainfall departure, relative departure index and Standardised Article Info precipitation index. Statistical analysis based on coefficient of variance revealed high etc. variability in seasonal rainfall. Most the area is under grip of drought with different Accepted: severity class in 1985, 1991, 2000, 2002, and 2008. Based on RDI Mangaliawas is at highest priority for drought mitigation practises. Masuda and Mangaliawas are affected 08 January 2020 Available Online: with regular occurrence of drought with drought frequency 1 in 2 years. The assessment 10 February 2020 using SPI revealed the spatio-temporal variability of different station. The present study attempts to assess the meteorological drought response to extreme climate condition. Long-term rainfall data (1985-2008) have been taken for evaluation. Introduction damage, stream flow reduction and depletion of ground water and soil moisture. It occurs Drought is an abnormal condition that causes when evaporation and transpiration (the due to deficit in rainfall. The reduction in movement of water in the soil through plants rainfall severely affects the water availability into the air) exceeds precipitation for a in a region and thus crop productivity is considerable periods (Framji 1986). affected. Drought for an extended period causes a considerable hydrologic imbalance According to Dracup et al., (1980) if one is and consequently water shortage, crop interested in determining causes and 1343 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(2): 1343-1354 characteristics of drought, the attention should drought characteristics. be focused on the meteorological (precipitation) droughts. However, if one is Location of study area interested in determining the effect or impact of drought the attention should be focused on Ajmer is situated in the hot semi-arid zone streamflow and agricultural drought. and it is located between 26°27’ N latitude and 74°37’ E longitude and at an altitude of The most popular perception of drought is, it 475 m above mean sea level. The Ajmer is a, “meteorological phenomenon”, district received 416.66 mm rainfall from characterized by lack of rainfall compared to 1985 to 2016. This region has steppe type of the expected amount over a given periods of vegetation. time. A drought exists when rainfall is below 75% of the long-term mean (Glantz, 1994), Coefficient of variance (C.V.) while others might consider it to occur at or below 60 or 50% of normal. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of rainfall in Chambal Basin over the period As per the Indian Meteorological Department of 1985-2008 were examined using the (IMD) the droughts is based on the percentage coefficient of variation. departure of rainfall from the long term mean rainfall. It is defined as follow: The study for assessment of meteorological drought characteristics for Ajmer district, C.V = Coefficient of Variation Rajasthan has been conducted. The region has s = Standard deviation hot semi-arid climate. The region mainly x = Mean of the Time series depends on monsoon for different agriculture activities and thus poses the risk of crop Identification of drought prones station failure and unprecedented economic losses due to change in rainfall pattern caused due to The drought-prone blocks in the study area climate change. It is under this context the have been identified based on probability study was conducted for assessment of analysis of annual rainfall (Central Water meteorological drought characteristics that Commission 1982). An area has been help to mitigate and execution of effective considered to be drought prone if the drought management planning for future probability of occurrence of 75 % of mean endeavour. annual rainfall is less than 80 %. The annual rainfall series has been sorted in the Methodology descending order, ranks assigned from 1, 2, …… N, up to the last record and Weibull’s Different methodology was adopted to distribution fitted to the ranked data. The evaluate the meteorological drought probability of exceedance is given by Eq. 1. characteristics based on daily rainfall data for 24 years for 9 stations in Ajmer district. The data has been collected from IMD, Pune. Different statistics tool and most famous Where, P = Probability of Exceedence of index namely Standardised Precipitation annual rainfall, m = rank of particular record, Index has been used for assessment of N = total number of observation 1344 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(2): 1343-1354 Fig.1 Base map of study area Identification of drought years rainfall (Xm) from the seasonal rainfall series (Xi) given by Eq. 2. The drought years can be identified based on the departure analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series. Since more than 90 % of the annual rainfall is received during the The percentage departure (D %) is monsoon season, the seasonal rainfall subsequently computed as given by Eq. 3. departure analysis better represents the drought conditions in the study area. [D % = *100] The seasonal rainfall departure (Di) is India Meteorological Department (IMD) computed by subtracting the mean seasonal considers a season as drought affected, if the total seasonal rainfall is less than 75 % of the 1345 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2020) 9(2): 1343-1354 normal. However, based on the actual field defined for Chambal River Basin based on the conditions in Chambal River Basin, even a seasonal rainfall departures viz., (a) mild deficit of 20 % in the seasonal rainfall leads to drought (b) moderate drought (c) severe much lesser crop acreage and crop yields. drought (d) extreme drought and has Therefore, four drought classes have been following ranges- Standard Range of Departure values and their classification- S.No. Drought Classes Range (%) 1. Mild Drought -20 % < D < -25 % 2. Moderate Drought -25 % < D < -35 % 3. Severe Drought -35 % < D < -50 % 4. Extreme Drought D > -50 % Relative Departure Index meteorological drought event. The SPI is a dimensionless index where negative and Relative departure index (RDI) is a ranking positive values indicate drought and wet system, used to decide the relative drought situation respectively. The intensity, proneness of various areas under Chambal magnitude and duration of drought as well as basin based on rainfall departure analysis. For the historical database probability emerging this purpose, weights have been assigned to from a specific drought can be determined by various drought years as follows, (1) mild a thorough analysis of SPI values. drought, (2) moderate drought, (3) severe drought and (4) extreme drought. The relative The normalized series of SPI values represent departure index for the rain gauge stations has wetter and drier climates in the same way. been decided by dividing the total cumulative The SPI has been applied to quantify monthly weights obtained for the study period during precipitation deficit anomalies on single time drought years with total number of years scale (3 month) for the period during 1985- under consideration as given in equation 2008. Computation of the SPI involves fitting below- a gamma probability density function to a given frequency distribution of precipitation for a given station. It represents a statistical z-score or the Where, N= Total number of year under number of standard deviation (following a consideration gamma probability distribution transformation Wᵢ= Weight for the iᵗ ͪ drought years to a normal distribution); above or below that an event is demarcated with reference to mean Spi - based meteorological drought (Edward and Mckee, 1997). The gamma evaluation distribution is normally defined as: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was For > 0 calculated using the following formula and classification scheme as proposed by Mckee Where, α > 0 is a shape parameter, β > 0 is a et al., (1993). SPI was estimated to observe scale parameter, ϰ is the precipitation amount the spatio-temporal extent and intensity of and Г (α) is the gamma function. 1346 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci
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