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The Regional Economic Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail IJR International Journal of Railway The Korean Society for Railway Vol. 1, No. 1 / March 2008, pp. 12-19 The Regional Economic Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail Hank C. C. Huang*, Tao Hsin Hsu**, and Cynthia M.T. Lin*** Abstract Starting her business operation on January 5 2007, Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR) shapes a new time-space frame for Taiwan western corridor, where more than 90% of national population lives around and more than 95% gross domestic product created from. Comparing with the four-hour traveling time by highway before 2007, THSR reduces the time required to one and half hours from Taipei to Kaohsiung. It will not only benefit the communication along the island from north to south, but also change the location advantages/disadvantages for all cities in these regions. Therefore, this paper establishes a spatial computable general equilibrium model (SCGE Model) to simulate the economic effect of High Speed Rail (HSR). This SCGE model divides Taiwan economy into fifteen geographic regions and thirteen indus- tries. Each region has three sectors: household sector, transportation sector, and industries sector. Following the behavior function of economic theories, the general equilibrium can be achieved simultaneously. Thus, gross regional product (GRP), capital formation, employment income and welfare/utility level can be all observed by calculating the different economic result between cases with-/ without-HSR. Besides, this model presents the social welfare benefit from HSR operation, the polarization phenomenon among regions and within certain region, unbalance distribution of welfare along the HSR line, and industries development divergence among regions etc. These major findings should be useful for regional development policy making. Keywords : HSR, SCGE model, Regional economics 1. Introduction way before 2007, THSR reduces the time required to one and half hours from Taipei to Kaohsiung. It will not only Some 40 years ago, the operation of the Shinkansen in benefit the communication along the island from north to Japan marked the beginning of the modern high-speed rail south, but also change the location advantages/disadvan- (HSR) era. Since then HSR services have been introduced tages for all cities in these regions. and are planning in many countries, and with her high- Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to establish a spa- speed advantage, HSR usually becomes the dominant tial computable general equilibrium model (SCGE Model) mode of transport on many routes. to simulate the economic effect of HSR. This SCGE On January 5 2007, Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR) model divides Taiwan economy into fifteen geographic shapes a new time-space frame for Taiwan western corri- regions and thirteen industries. Each region has three sec- dor, where more than 90% of national population lives tors: household sector, transportation sector, and industries around and creates more than 95% gross domestic prod- sector. Following the behavior function of economic theo- uct. Comparing with the four-hour traveling time by high- ries, the general equilibrium can be achieved simulta- neously. Thus, gross regional product (GRP), capital formation, employment income and welfare/utility level *Taiwan Institute of Economic Research 7F, No.16-8, Tehui St., Jhongshan Dis- can be all observed by calculating the different economic trict, Taipei, Taiwan Fax: 886-2-2595-0988 result between cases with-/ without-HSR. E-mail: [email protected] **Assistant professor De Lin Institute of Technology No.1, Lane 380, Qingyun Rd., The remainder of this paper is structured in the follow- Tucheng City, Taipei County, Taiwan ing way. Section 2 outlines the model. Sections 3 and 4 E-mail: [email protected] ***Assistant research fellow Taiwan Institute of Economic Research 7F, No.16-8, describe the data and the simulation procedure. Section 5 Tehui St., Jhongshan District, Taipei, Taiwan Fax: 886-2-2595-0988 summarizes the results. E-mail: [email protected] − 12 − IJR International Journal of Railway The Regional Economic Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail 2. The Model 13 α α α 15 s s s s s i s 14 s 15 U ()xi,,Le Tp ==φ1 ∏ xi Le Tp , ∑ αj 1 (2) 2.1 Outline and Assumptions i = 1 j = 1 Based on Ueda et al. (2005), we formulated a SCGE The household faces budget and time constraints, so we model with the following major assumptions: can formulate a utility maximizing problem as: (1) The model spatially covers regions labeled by s s s s s s s V ()pi,pTp; I = Maxlim U ()xi,,Le Tp sS∈ = {}123,,,… ,15 . In each region, a representative xs,,Les Tps household, a transportation sector, and industrial sectors exist. i s.t. psxs +Ps Tps ≤I s, and The industrial sectors are labeled by i∈ {}123,,,… ,13 . ∑ i i Tp i (2) Each industry produces commodities/services by xi s s s ⎛⎞s s s I = w ∑Li ++rk∑ i +K T πT (3) inputting factors, labor Li and capital Ki, and intermediate ⎝⎠ i i goods traded between sectors. where ps means the price of xs commodities/services (3) The household earns income by supplying factors, i i of industry i consumed in residing region s; ps means consumes commodities/services provided by industries, and Tp the price for Tps private trips of the household residing takes private trips labeled by TP provided by the transpor- in region s; I s means the household income; ws means tation sector. the wages for Ls , working time input to industry i in (4) The transportation sector labeled i=T provides pas- i region; r means the rent of the capital; K s means the senger transportation services to households and industri- i capital input to industry i in region; K s means the capi- als. The passenger transportation service includes several T tal input to the transportation sector in region; π s modes labeled by m∈ {}123,, . Excess profit of the trans- T means the profit of the transportation sector in region s. portation sector is divided and distributed to households. (5) Any markets in the economy are assumed to be in Then we can get: long-run competitive equilibrium. α α (6) Trading with other countries is not considered in this xs ==-----1-I s, i ∈{}123,,,… ,13 , and Tps -------3 I s (4) i s s model, so it is assumed there is no direct impact on the pi pTp trading by the operation of THSR. 2) Second Stage Since the composite private trip Tps are composed of 2.2 The Formation of SCGE Model in Taiwan Tps and sS∈ , the household determines its Tps to mini- 2.2.1 Household Behavior r mize representative price ps . Next, we reformulate the We assume that a representative household residing in Tp minimization problem by specifying the aggregation struc- region pursues to maximize its utility by consuming com- s s s ture of Tp as a Cobb-Douglas function: modities/services xi and recreation in its leisure time Le . 15 β The household spends time working, traveling, sleeping, s s s s s j pTp ==minlim ∑pTpr,,Tpr s.t. ()Tp = φ2 ∏ Tpj 1, and so on. So its leisure time is equal to disposable time Tps,rs∈ s s r s j = 1 LR minus working time L and private trip time. Thus, its s 15 leisure time Le can be formalized as: and ∑ βj = 1 (5) s s s s s s s s s Le ==LR –L –∑∑∑trmTprm →Le Le ()L ,Tprm (1) j = 1 i r m s s where pTpr is the price for private trips from region s to where trm means private trip time from region s to r by s r. Then we can get: transportation mode m, and Tp rm means the number of s private trip times. As to the business trip time Tbirm , it 15 β s s j is included in working time L . ∏ pTpj s s 1 βr j = 1 Since we are unable to estimate Tprm directly by for- Tpr = ----- ---------s ∆1, and ∆1=----------------, r∈ {}12,,… ,15 s φ 15 β mula (1). Thus the demand of composite private trip, Tp , 2 pTpr j s ∏ β j will be first estimated, then Tpr , the demand of private s j = 1 (6) trip from region s to r, and finally Tprm , the demand of private trip from region s to r by transportation mode m. s ∆1 And finally we get: pTp = ----- (7) The processes are as follows: φ2 1) First Stage 3) Third Stage It is assumed that the utility function of the household in s s Similarly, Tpr are composed of Tp rm and sS∈ , the regionis Cobb-Douglas type. Thus the utility function is: s household determines his TP r to minimize representative Vol. 1, No. 1 / March 2008 − 13 − Hank C. C. Huang, Cynthia M. T. Lin, and Tao Hsin Hsu s price pTpr . Next, we reformulate the minimization problem fees of the composite business trip respectively as: s by specifying the aggregation structure of Tpr as a Cobb- 1 σ 1 σ 1 σ Ls=------ -----1Λ , Ks ==------ -----2Λ , Tbs ------ --------3-Λ , Douglas function: i ρ s 1 i ρ r 1 i ρ s 1 1iw 1i 1i pTpi s s s s s p =minlim ()p +t w Tp σ σ Tpr ∑ rm rm rm s 1 σ2 s 3 Tps 1 w ⋅⋅r p rm mM∈ ps ==------ Λ , and Λ ------------------------------Tbi (14) i 1 1 σ σ σ s sγ1 sγ2 sγ3 ρ1i 1 2 3 σ1 ⋅⋅σ2 σ3 s.t. ()Tpr= φ3Tpr1 Tpr2 Tpr3 ==1, and γ1 ++γ2 γ3 1 (8) s where Li represents the quantity of labor for industry i s s s in region s; w represents the wages in region s; Ki rep- where prm means the price of transportation mode m from region s to r.
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