Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 09/22/2020 11:44:54 AM
Rebecca Neville
From: Georgian Dream
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Latest Polling Shows Consistent Lead for Georgian Dream Ahead of October 31 Parliamentary Elections
Detailed polling in Georgia is now underway, ahead of 31 October Parliamentary elections, and two most recent polls show a clear and consistent trend pointing towards a re-election victory for Georgian Dream.
The two recent polls released can be found here and here, conducted by the respected UK-based polling organisation Survation, which correctly predicted the UK General Election in December 2019.
The Survation poll from 10th September shows the following level of party
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support:
• Georgian Dream: 55.7% . UNM: 16.2% • Strategy Aghmashenebeli: 6% • European Georgia: 5.6% • Labor party: 4.5% • Alliance of Patriots: 3.9%
A poll from Survation with fieldwork from 15-24th July showed a similar level of party support:
• Georgian Dream: 52% . UNM: 19% • European Georgia: 8% • Alliance of Patriots: 5% . Lelo: 5% . NG: 4% • Others: 7%
In June 2020, a GORBI poll showed:
• Georgian Dream: 63% . UNM: 14% • Alliance of Patriots: 7% . Lelo: 3% . Others: 14%
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This fits with a consistent trend in polling throughout 2020. It shows consistent healthy leads for Georgian Dream, with UNM between 15%~20% and other smaller parties including European Georgia at consistently less than 10%.
Sadly, not all polling is conducted responsibly, and some polling companies do not value independence. A poll by Edison Research in August of 2020 was conducted in partnership with Formula TV, an opposition- led TV network. Formula TV was founded by David Kezerashvili, the former minister of defence and a close ally of ex-President Misha Saakashvili.
The poll is an outlier, showing Georgian Dream on 38%, still far ahead of UNM on 15% - but much lower than Georgian Dream’s polling numbers found by more independent and more credible polls. Similar polling results were released by the International Republican Institute (IRQ last week.
A recent public attitude survey conducted by National Democratic Institute (NDI) came to some even more unlikely conclusions.
Flere’s an example from the NDI survey: If parliamentary elections were held tomorrow which party would you vote for? (q24). Answer: supposedly only 17% of respondents answered Georgian Dream. In the same survey released by NDI, they claim 59% of those intending to vote are undecided. The suggestion that Georgian Dream has just 17% support is not serious. The facts and polling as laid out above from Survation and others clearly indicate the opposite is true.
These ‘outlier’ polls, including those sponsored by opposition leaders, should not be considered with the same level of credibility as Survation and other credible polling organisations. As a result, these polls have little trust amongst the Georgian public.
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Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 09/22/2020 11:44:54 AM Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 09/22/2020 11:44:54 AM
The Georgian Dream led-government is steadfastly committed to Georgia’s democracy and ensuring the holding of the most free, fair and transparent elections ever held in modern Georgia.
The Parliament of Georgia led by Georgian Dream has adopted the Election Reform Package with a strong majority, in line with OSCE/ODIHR recommendations. These measures will protect the integrity of the elections as well as ensuring fair and equitable conditions during the campaign.
It continues to be of the utmost importance that all political actors campaign responsibly and honor their commitments to citizens as well as to international partners, including ensuring persons with disabilities are able to exercise their right to vote independently with dignity, making polling stations fully accessible to them.
The role of polling organisations will also be key during the election campaign. Polls are an important democratic tool to provide insight into the changing opinions of the Georgian people, and they often highlight issues that need to be addressed by political leaders on all sides.
However, polls can also be tools for disinformation and propaganda: a method to distort the true public opinion and shape a false narrative about what people are thinking. This must be guarded against carefully in order to ensure a free and fair election environment.
As shown in all credible polls, Georgian Dream has a consistently high and rising level of electoral support, which provides solid grounds to expect that the party will once again receive a strong mandate of trust from the Georgian population.
GDFacts.com will publish updated data from polls conducted between now and election day.
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NOTE: These materials are distributed by DCI Group AZ, L.L.C. for Political Union of Citizens "Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia," and additional information is on file with the Department of Justice, Washington, DC.
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Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 09/22/2020 11:44:54 AM