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REPORT QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN AND RELATED FOREIGN MALIGN INFLUENCE

2021 EUROPEAN VALUES CENTER FOR SECURITY POLICY

European Values Center for Security Policy is a non-governmental, non-partisan institute defending freedom and sovereignty. We protect liberal democracy, the rule of law, and the transatlantic alliance of the Czech Republic. We help defend Europe especially from the malign influences of , China, and Islamic extremists. We envision a free, safe, and prosperous Czechia within a vibrant Central Europe that is an integral part of the transatlantic community and is based on a firm alliance with the USA. Authors: David Stulík - Head of Eastern European Program, European Values Center for Security Policy Miranda Betchvaia - Intern of Eastern European Program, European Values Center for Security Policy

Notice: The following report (ISSUE 3) aims to provide a brief overview of the political crisis in Georgia and its development during the period of January-March 2021. The crisis has been evolving since the parliamentary elections held on 31 October 2020. The report briefly summarizes the background context, touches upon the current political deadlock, and includes the key developments since the previous quarterly report. Responses from the third sector and Georgia’s Western partners will also be discussed. Besides, the report considers anti-Western messages and disinformation, which have contributed to Georgia’s political crisis.

This report has been produced under the two-years project implemented by the Prague-based European Values Center for Security Policy in Georgia. The project is supported by the Transition Promotion Program of The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Emerging Donors Challenge Program of the USAID.

With support of:

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The last quarter (January-March 2021) has revealed agenda. The detention of the biggest opposition major challenges ’s democratic and party (UNM) leader, , has undermined Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Several political decisions parties’ willingness to negotiate. Melia’s arrest on have shaped the current deadlock in the country. 23 February 2021 has generated extreme political For the first time, since the end of Soviet era,the tension between the ruling is the least representative and opposition parties. Misunderstandings and one. Even though MPs from two opposition conflicting views among the ruling party members parties have entered the Parliament, the rest of the led the Prime Minister, , to opposition parties’ MPs have strictly decided not resign. Current developments in Georgia have to. They claim that the parliamentary election was alarmed civil society as well as the country’s Western rigged. After four rounds of cross-party talks yielding partners, who are calling on both opposition and no tangible outcomes, the future of the U.S. Embassy incumbent parties to de-escalate the political crisis. and EU Delegation-led negotiations is not clear. Throughout the evolving political turmoil, local, The unexpected departure from politics of the independent media is being attacked, while Georgian Dream party founder and chairman, Russian disinformation campaigns actively discredit , has affected the ruling party’s opposition parties and Georgia’s Western partners.

3 Timeline of main political developments in Georgia (January-March 2021)

31 October 2020 Parliamentary elections are held based on the new electoral system in Georgia 1 November 2020 Opposition parties refuse to enter the Parliament

12 November 2020 The ruling party and the opposition parties start a political dialogue brokered by U.S. and EU leaders

21 November 2020 The second round of parliamentary elections is held

11 January 2021 Bidzina Ivanishvili, the ruling Georgian Dream party founder and chairman, leaves politics

16 February 2021 Court sends largest opposition party Chair (Nika Melia) to pretrial detention 18 February 2021 Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia quits over order to detain opposition leader

23 February 2021 Police storm the UNM office and detain Nika Melia 24-25 February 2021 Independent television journalist Vakho Sanaia and his family members attacked

3 March 2021 European Council President, , visits Georgia over deepening political crisis

4 Deepening political turmoil in Georgia Ahead of the parliamentary elections in October and NATO Parliamentary Assembly) have recog- 2020, the Parliament of Georgia voted on a Constitu- nized the elections as competitive and concluded tional Amendment to introduce an updated major that fundamental freedoms were respected; how- electoral reform (see previous quarterly report). Af- ever, the pressure on voters with an outcome of re- ter increasing political tensions, the agreement was duced public confidence in the electoral process has reached through Georgia’s Western allies’ facilitation, been emphasised. Domestic NGOs have been more and thus, Electoral Reform was already enshrined critical, assessing the 2020 parliamentary elections as earlier in 2020 in the 8th March Agreement. Follow- the least democratic and free of all the elections held ing the agreement, Georgia adopted a mixed elec- during the Georgian Dream government’s tenure. toral system, 120:30 seats (120 MPs elected through Their statement is based on the cases of verbal and proportional party lists, and 30 from single-mandate physical confrontations leading up to, and during, constituencies) favouring the MPs elected under the election day. party-lists votes (the so-called proportional sys- The 10th convocation of the Georgian Parliament tem) as 120 MPs out of 150 MPs are elected through had its inaugural session on 11 December 2020, a proportional vote. The electoral threshold for the attended by only Georgian Dream MPs (90 out of proportional elections was fixed at 1% of votes. 150 seats). In parallel to the inauguration session, The reform was well-supported and observed by the United National Movement, European Geor- Georgia’s international partners. Cross‑party talks gia, , Lelo, and Labor Party were facilitated by the United States and the Euro- leaders have come together and signed a memoran- pean Union. It seemed like the outcome satisfied the dum, in which their elected MPs pledge to terminate incumbent Georgian Dream government, the oppo- their parliamentary mandates. Girchi, the sition parties, civil society, and all other interested party, and the Kremlin-friendly Alliance of Patriots parties. However, despite successful cross-party talks relied on the USA and EU mediated talks and did not and their achievements, what was not foreseen was formally renounce their mandates. Ruling Georgian the political crisis that the parliamentary election re- Dream MPs offered acontroversial reaction to op- sults subsequently fueled. position parties’ actions. Some did not perceive it as After the announcement of elections’ preliminary a tragedy for Georgian Dream to be alone in the Par- results by the Central Election Commission (CEC), liament. For example, the recently-appointed prime Georgia found itself in political deadlock. All eight minister of Georgia, Irakli Gharibashvili, noted that opposition parties rejected the elections’ outcome, “it is a misconception that one-party rule is destruc- called the elections “rigged”, and refused to enter the tive,” whereas others hoped that opposition would new Parliament. Their demands included snap elec- enter the Parliament, citing the national interest. tions, the CEC chair’s resignation, and the immedi- Against the general opposition boycott, four oppo- ate release of alleged ‘’political prisoners’’. In general, sition MPs did quit the far-right Alliance of Patriots, nine opposition parties surpassed the 1% threshold. formed a new political union of “European Social- According to the CEC, the Georgian Dream received ists”, and entered the Parliament on 5 January 2021. 48.22% of votes. The biggest opposition party, Unit- Based on their statement, their decision was driven ed National Movement, received 27.18%, and the by the will to swiftly resolve the crisis. Besides, they rest of the votes were divided between other oppo- did not consider “well-founded evidence” of a rigged sition parties, giving them a maximum of 4 seats per election to be sufficient. Later, two leaders of the party in the Parliament. opposition party decided to enter the Parliament as Domestic NGOs and international observation mis- “citizens”. sions have been closely observing and assessing the Given developments and the fact that current par- post-election crisis in Georgia. Four international ob- liament is the least representative one since the servation missions (ODIHR LEOM, OSCE PA, PACE Soviet era, there is a risk that Georgia might be

5 compromising on its own Euro-Atlantic aspi- nent of the Euro-Atlantic integration process. The ration ambitions. Georgia’s Western partners are political deadlock requires finding a common and used to resolute decisions, progress and reforms as long-lasting solution that meets the expectations of the country has always been a committed propo- both Georgia’s citizens and its strategic partners. HIDE-AND-SEEK: BIDZINA IVANISHVILI’S DEPARTURE FROM POLITICS (AGAIN) When everyone thought that the political deadlock while condemning the United National Movement’s could not become worse or more complicated, years of governance as a “regime based on lies and the ruling Georgian Dream had another plan. On violence”. 11 January 2021, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the ruling In the meantime, on 2 February 2021 the ruling Georgian Dream party founder and chairman, Georgian Dream party decided to refrain from and Georgia’s richest citizen, announced for a second terminating the mandates of 51 opposition time that he was quitting the party chairmanship, representatives and thus “gave the MPs another the party itself and politics generally ‘for good’. opportunity to respect their voters’ will.” GD Chair Interestingly, he has transferred a significant asset also outlined that by doing so, to his Cartu Charity Foundation. Ivanishvili claims GD also considered the views of the international that his capital did not grow throughout his time partners, which “lean towards giving the radical in politics; however, this move raises questions as to opposition another chance to become constructive.” whether this is true. It is not the first time Ivanishvili The opposition said such a move was expected from has retired from his leadership positions. In 2013 the GD and once again announced their demands: he left his posts as a Prime minister and a party snap elections and the immediate release of alleged chairman before returning to politics in May 2018. “political prisoners”. Opposition MPs urged GD to The latest Ivanishvili’s departure from politics act immediately to resolve the ongoing political received mixed assessments among Georgian crisis. Georgian Dream does not consider that politicians. Giorgi Gakharia, Prime Minister of there are political prisoners in Georgia, whereas Georgia at the time, praised Bidzina Ivanishvili as the opposition parties, as well as civil society the driving force of Georgian politics in recent years organizations state that political leaders are arrested and once again expressed his gratitude towards him. based on their political preferences. Parliament Speaker (GD), and Alarming pivot - the arrest of opposition leader many other GD members followed suit and thanked Ivanishvili for the significant progress the country On 16 February 2021, the Parliament of Georgia had made during his leadership. However, the stripped the United National Movement (UNM) opposition assessed his departure as a retreat into party’s Nika Melia of his parliamentary immunity the shadows to avoid taking any responsibility for with 88 votes (2 against), opening the way to arrest the ongoing political deadlock. Khatia Dekanoidze the leader of the largest opposition party.1 Georgian from the opposition United National Movement opposition leaders and supporters gathered at Party stated that Ivanishvili had shifted responsibility the UNM office to resist Melia’s apprehension to his Georgian Dream colleagues, thereby evading and accused the court of being aligned with the accountability. Georgian Dream party. Georgian Dream members found themselves in a controversial position. Some Senior Georgian Dream party lawmaker and former of them supported Melia’s detention, whereas others speaker, Irakli Kobakhidze, was appointed as the new considered that the move could cause political party chair. He has been one of the key negotiators on behalf of GD to solve the post-election political 1 During the anti-occupation protest rally in front of the crisis. Kobakidze presented renewed GD council and Georgian Parliament during so-called Gavrilov’s night in once again praised Ivanishvili as “the chief guarantor in June 2019, Nika Melia was accused of attempting of freedom, peace, and security for our country” an intrusion into the Parliament by group violence. Melia refused to pay the bail as he considered it illegitimate.

6 escalation. Due to an apparent misunderstanding National Movement Chair Nika Melia’s detention. about Melia’s imprisonment among Georgian Dream TI has stated that the arrest of the opposition leader party members, Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia aggravates the political crisis and “demonstrates an has resigned over plans to arrest an opposition extremely high degree of concentration of power leader. Gakharia stated that even though Melia has and a worrying slide towards state capture.” violated the law and has been engaged in sparking Public Defender Nino Lomjaria also reacted to the tension in the country, ‘the enforcement of justice arrest of the opposition leader: “Nothing more threatens citizens’ lives and health or creates the disgraceful could happen on February 23, on possibility for destabilization in the country, thus the centennial anniversary of Georgia’s loss of [it] is unacceptable.’ Based on his announcement, independence and the Sovietization, as the ravaging he hoped that his resignation would decrease of the opposition office and arrest of the opposition the polarization and rivalry in Georgia. After the leader.” Lomjaria claimed this will result in Georgia PM’s resignation, the Interior Minister of Georgia drifting further apart from the West. postponed the detention of UNM party chair Melia. Former Prime Minister , incumbent Attack on the Pirveli TV anchor: Civil Society Defense Minister, has been announced as a prime Organizations alert ministerial candidate following Giorgi Gakharia’s On the night of 24-25 February 2021, television resignation. journalist Vakho Sanaia and his family members Irakli Garibashvili did not seem like stepping away were attacked by three people. Vakho Sanaia, from the red lines to de-escalate the situation. who works for the independent, government-critical Instead, on 23 February 2021, the police stormed Pirveli TV, was targeted by attackers due to his work. the UNM office and detained Nika Melia. The Sanaia blamed the general “propaganda” of the media reported that police used either tear gas or ruling Georgia Dream party aimed at government- pepper spray when entering Melia’s cabinet. Twenty- critical media as a primary reason for the attack one persons were detained, accused of disobedience against him. It took place after the detention of UNM of police orders. The Interior Ministry confirmed leader Nika Melia. Melia’s post-detention period has that police had seized computer servers from the been one of hostility between the ruling party and UNM headquarters. opposition supporters. Prime Minister Garibashvili promised an adequate response and held three Opposition leaders and anti-government protesters attackers accountable with the law’s full severity. gathered outside the Government Administration On 25 February 2021, police arrested three young Building to protest Nika Melia’s detention and persons for assaulting TV anchor Vakho Sanaia. The announced a ‘large-scale’ rally on 23 February 2021. suspects were charged with violence committed by They have demanded the immediate release of a group against two or more individuals, foreseeing Melia and other ‘political prisoners’ and urged the two-year sentences. government to agree to the snap elections. Media Advocacy Coalition has responded to the Civil Society reacts to Melia’s detention attack on Sanaia and his family members. Coalition Twenty-two local civil society organizations (CSOs) member organizations have expressed their concern condemned the Georgian Government’s decision over the rhetoric of the members of the Georgian to detain Nika Melia; CSOs stated that storming Dream party. GD senior officials have been found UNM headquarters “will further aggravate the using hate speech against media and labelling political crisis in the country,” when “the Georgian journalists as political opponents, which obviously Government could have eased the situation through creates a toxic environment for media organizations legal and non-violent means.” and journalists, preventing them from being able Transparency International (TI), a global anti- to work freely. While crimes committed against corruption watchdog, has been actively observing journalists are, in general, left unpunished, Media current developments in Georgia, including United Advocacy Coalition has demanded a quick reaction

7 from the law enforcement agencies on the case fundamental issues regarding snap elections and the of Vakho Sanaia. Their demands also include that release of “political prisoners” remained unsolved. Georgian Dream refrain from expressing aggressive The fourth round of negotiations between the attitudes towards the media. The coalition believes ruling GD and opposition parties that passed the 1% that international partners should pay more threshold in the parliamentary elections took place attention to the verbal or physical attacks on on 8 December 2020, in the same format attended Georgian media representatives. by the U.S. and EU ambassadors. The leaders mostly Georgia is ranked 60th out of 180 countries in maintained their stances from the previous third ‘Reporters Without Boarders’, based on the World round, which showed a fundamental difference Press Freedom Index 2020. The election campaign in their views over holding snap elections and has been challenging for local media, and journalists releasing “political prisoners.” However, both parties were attacked several times during clashes between managed to bring positions closer on such issues as pro-government and pro-opposition activists. the electoral system and administration reforms. Stronger Together: Georgia and its Western Opposition leaders clearly implied that they do not partners intend to end the parliamentary boycott if the ruling party does not fulfil the two key demands: snap Georgia’s Western partners have been pushing for elections and the release of “political prisoners”. the peaceful resolution of the post-election crisis. However, the high hopes to exit the political deadlock The U.S. Embassy and the EU Delegation to became blurred upon Nika Melia’s detention on Georgia encouraged political parties to sit at the 23 February 2021. Melia’s imprisonment made it negotiating table and exit the political deadlock while respecting the democratic institutions Georgia clear that the government was straining the crisis has been building for two decades. rather than solving it peacefully. All the small wins of the four-round negotiations became jeopardised. Since 12 November 2020, four rounds of negotiations It is worth noting that the opposition had called between the ruling and opposition parties have for the renewal of post-election talks before Melia’s been held, brokered by U.S. and EU leaders. However, detention, when they had ancitipated snap elections the political dialogue does not appear to have made in the wake of Prime Minister Gakharia’s resignation. significant progress as the ruling party’s willingness to compromise has been extremely low. In contrast, the Unfortunately for Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations, opposition has decisively demanded that GD both the political situation continued to deteriorate in hold snap elections and release ‘’political prisoners’’. Georgia. The Foreign Policy Resolution, adopted by The first two rounds (see previousquarterly report) the new Parliament on 25 December 2020, once of negotiations made it clear that opposition parties again outlines EU and NATO membership as the did not find common ground in negotiations. country’s main priority, envisaging preparation of institutional and legislative grounds for applying The third round of negotiations on 7 December 2020 for full EU membership in 2024. The document at U.S. Ambassador Kelly Degnan’s residence, also also prioritizes deepening relations with the U.S. as attended by EU Ambassador Carl Hartzell, managed the country’s main strategic partner and ally. The to bring the two sides closer on some issues. However, ambitious goals require adequate compliance with the primary demands, snap elections and the Western standards of democracy. However, the release of “political prisoners”, remained unfulfilled. detention of Melia drew a critical response from Incumbent Parliament Speaker Archil Talakvadze Georgia’s Western partners. Only Russian media (GD) stated that the third round was a step , seemed satisfied that the ‘anti-Russian Georgia which hopefully would “serve as means for long- politician was imprisoned’. term cooperation between political parties.” United National Movement representatives said that The U.S. Department of State noted that the U.S. is parties managed to approximate their position deeply concerned by developments in Georgia and on some issues, such as electoral reform; however, “call[ed] on all parties to exercise restraint and avoid

8 any actions or rhetoric that could escalate tensions Georgia to assist in resolving the democratic crisis. or result in violence.” The Department of State He held a wide range of meetings with GD lawmak- also urged “the Georgian government to act in line ers, opposition leaders, CSOs, and diplomatic mis- with its Euro-Atlantic aspirations and to reinforce sions. “You will never be able to accede to EU and its commitment to the principles of democracy, NATO being […] a one-party democracy. It is not a individual liberty, and the rule of law by ensuring democracy at all,” the Lithuanian MP remarked and that its judicial and prosecutorial system is free of called on Georgian Dream to respond to the opposi- political bias.” tion’s “goodwill for dialogue.” However, the Georgian The U.S. Helsinki Commission has also called for Dream party’s Prime Minister-designate, Irakli Garib- Melia’s release and dialogue between political parties, ashvili, said that Foreign Affairs Committee Chair and added that “storming opposition headquarters Žygimantas Pavilionis’ statements are unacceptable and arbitrarily detaining the opposition leader is not and blamed him for being linked with the United in line with democratic progress.” National Movement. Garibashvili added that a Lith- uanian MP’s statements “mean absolutely nothing” The European Union External Action Service (EEAS) for Georgian Dream. has released a statement on the latest political developments in Georgia. EEAS spokespersons have On 1 March 2021, Charles Michel, European underlined that the European Union is concerned Council President, arrived in Georgia and met about the deepening political polarization due to with high-ranking Georgian officials, opposition Melia’s arrest and urges all parties to step up efforts representatives and Young European Ambassadors, to de-escalate and come together to find common and visited the residents of villages divided by ground. Based on the statement, political stability Russian occupation. Unexpectedly, Charles Michel - with all parties refraining from divisive acts and decided to mediate government-opposition talks rhetoric, an inclusive parliamentary process, and during his visit and underlined that its time for the a judicial system that the Georgian people trust are EU to “move from facilitation to mediation.” all prerequisites for Georgia to deepen its relationship President Michel said that his visit comes in the with the EU in accordance with the Association context of the deepening political crisis in Georgia, Agreement. which is of “great concern” to the European Union. “The EU calls on all parties to step up their efforts to Chairwoman of the European Parliament’s Delega- de-escalate the situation and come together to find tion for relations with the South Caucasus and MEP, common ground,” he stressed. Marina Kaljurand (S&D, Estonia), and the European Parliament’s Standing Rapporteur on Georgia MEP, On 8 March 2021, President Charles Michel, in col­ Sven Mikser (S&D, Estonia), released a joint state- laboration with High Representative , ment saying that “non-constructive and provocative appointed Christian Danielsson to mediate and tactics pursued by parts of the opposition, respond- engage in the EU-backed mediation effort in ing to the provocations by storming the headquar- Georgia. The decision has been made in follow up ters of the largest opposition party and detaining to the re-launch of the political dialogue during their leader is in no way helpful, nor does it provide President Michel’s visit to Tbilisi on 1 March. a way out of the crisis.” Danielsson is currently the Head of the European Commission’s Representation in Sweden. Danielsson Foreign affairs committee chairs of the U.S. Senate is also a former Director-General for Neighbourhood and seven European countries’ legislatures also and Enlargement Negotiations. He arrived in Tbilisi joined the long list of worried Western partners of on 12 March 2021 and was supposed to leave for Georgia. They said that Melia’s case “exposed the Brussels on 14 March 2021; however, he prolonged his fragility of democracy and freedom in Georgia,” visit for a day. In the framework of the EU mediation, and also “contravened the March 2020 Agreement Danielsson met the , Georgia between the government and opposition.” Dream, opposition representatives, and civil society Lithuanian MP, Žygimantas Pavilionis, has arrived in organizations. Ambassador of the European Union

9 to Georgia, Carl Hartzell, has been working closely On 3 March 2021, the Foreign Intelligence Service with Danielsson and Georgia’s political parties. (knows as SVR) of Russia expressed that “dissatisfac- In line with Christian Danielsson’s visit, Prime Minister tion is growing in Washington D.C. with the ruling of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili arrived in Brussels on Georgian Dream party which is diverging from the 15 March 2021 for a three-day visit. Garibashvili held path of unquestioned fulfilment of the American de- official meetings with European Council President mands.” SVR says that “the White House is irritated Charles Michel, Belgian PM Alexander De Croo, and that the “Dreamers” are not fully implementing US other EU high representatives. PM Garibashvili also demands to follow the path of Euro-Atlantic integra- participated in the Association Agreement Council, tion without any hesitation.” chaired by Josep Borrell, the High Representative CONCLUDING REMARKS for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The main goal of the PM’s visit and official meetings was to 2021 has already brought many challenges and tests encourage political parties to solve Georgia’s current for democracy and its resilience in Georgia. Current crisis via dialogue. Even though there are no tangible developments clearly indicate the complexity of outcomes of the EU mediation yet, the willingness the political deadlock that the Eastern partnership of Georgian Dream and opposition parties to be frontrunner country has entered. The democratic involved in the dialogue has increased. crisis again reminds the Georgian people and its Western partners that building and maintaining Russian Tales a democratic country requires dedication and In line with the tense political situation, disinforma- commitment. Georgia’s northern neighbour - Russia, tion campaigns in Georgia have become more active. visibly or not, is attempting to shape the country’s Myth-Detector has exposed anti-opposition pages future political developments. and pro-government trolls, whose activity is mainly The updated electoral system has been one more test aimed at justifying the government’s actions as legit- for an “island of democracy”, followed by political imate while discrediting the United National Move- unrest as the opposition parties refused to recognize ment. Fake accounts also attempt to undermine the election results. The subsequent detention of the Georgia’s Western partners and showcase them as leaders of the United National Movement has been actors doing the UNM’s bidding. For instance, trolls extremely alarming. Experience shows that Bidzina targeting the U.S. pointed to double standards; they Ivanishvili likes to quit politics when the crisis arrives, recalled the storming of the US Capitol which they however, he never leaves it and continues ruling compared to the storming of Georgia’s Parliament. from the shadows. Interestingly, Myth Detector also outlines that “mes- sages disseminated by trolls and anti-opposition While the international democratic community still pages in social media match the messages believes that Georgia’s political parties show a decent by governmental experts.” level of maturity and will manage to exit the dead- lock, pro-Western Georgian citizens again count on In response to Georgia’s Western partners’ alarming Georgia’s Western partners to help the county back signals and reactions, the government and its on to the rails of democracy and continue its Eu- supporters, as well as pro-Kremlin anti-liberal groups, ro-Atlantic aspirations. It requires political parties to voiced similar messages, stating that “the storming return to negotiations, to follow Western partners’ of the U.S. Capitol is an example of terrorism, and civil society’s expectations and demands, and to while in Georgia it is perceived as persecution of take politically wise actions in line with Georgia’s na- opposition”, They also accused the U.S. Embassy of tional interests. planning a coup in Georgia. A Lithuanian MP and Ambassador were perceived to be aligned with the United National Movement.

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