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Quarterly Report on the Political Situation in Georgia and Related Foreign Malign Influence

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Quarterly Report on the Political Situation in Georgia and Related Foreign Malign Influence REPORT QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN GEORGIA AND RELATED FOREIGN MALIGN INFLUENCE 2021 EUROPEAN VALUES CENTER FOR SECURITY POLICY European Values Center for Security Policy is a non-governmental, non-partisan institute defending freedom and sovereignty. We protect liberal democracy, the rule of law, and the transatlantic alliance of the Czech Republic. We help defend Europe especially from the malign influences of Russia, China, and Islamic extremists. We envision a free, safe, and prosperous Czechia within a vibrant Central Europe that is an integral part of the transatlantic community and is based on a firm alliance with the USA. Authors: David Stulík - Head of Eastern European Program, European Values Center for Security Policy Miranda Betchvaia - Intern of Eastern European Program, European Values Center for Security Policy Notice: The following report (ISSUE 3) aims to provide a brief overview of the political crisis in Georgia and its development during the period of January-March 2021. The crisis has been evolving since the parliamentary elections held on 31 October 2020. The report briefly summarizes the background context, touches upon the current political deadlock, and includes the key developments since the previous quarterly report. Responses from the third sector and Georgia’s Western partners will also be discussed. Besides, the report considers anti-Western messages and disinformation, which have contributed to Georgia’s political crisis. This report has been produced under the two-years project implemented by the Prague-based European Values Center for Security Policy in Georgia. The project is supported by the Transition Promotion Program of The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Emerging Donors Challenge Program of the USAID. With support of: 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The last quarter (January-March 2021) has revealed agenda. The detention of the biggest opposition major challenges for Georgia’s democratic and party (UNM) leader, Nika Melia, has undermined Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Several political decisions parties’ willingness to negotiate. Melia’s arrest on have shaped the current deadlock in the country. 23 February 2021 has generated extreme political For the first time, since the end of Soviet era,the tension between the ruling Georgian Dream Parliament of Georgia is the least representative and opposition parties. Misunderstandings and one. Even though MPs from two opposition conflicting views among the ruling party members parties have entered the Parliament, the rest of the led the Prime Minister, Giorgi Gakharia, to opposition parties’ MPs have strictly decided not resign. Current developments in Georgia have to. They claim that the parliamentary election was alarmed civil society as well as the country’s Western rigged. After four rounds of cross-party talks yielding partners, who are calling on both opposition and no tangible outcomes, the future of the U.S. Embassy incumbent parties to de-escalate the political crisis. and EU Delegation-led negotiations is not clear. Throughout the evolving political turmoil, local, The unexpected departure from politics of the independent media is being attacked, while Georgian Dream party founder and chairman, Russian disinformation campaigns actively discredit Bidzina Ivanishvili, has affected the ruling party’s opposition parties and Georgia’s Western partners. 3 Timeline of main political developments in Georgia (January-March 2021) 31 October 2020 Parliamentary elections are held based on the new electoral system in Georgia 1 November 2020 Opposition parties refuse to enter the Parliament 12 November 2020 The ruling party and the opposition parties start a political dialogue brokered by U.S. and EU leaders 21 November 2020 The second round of parliamentary elections is held 11 January 2021 Bidzina Ivanishvili, the ruling Georgian Dream party founder and chairman, leaves politics 16 February 2021 Court sends largest opposition party Chair (Nika Melia) to pretrial detention 18 February 2021 Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia quits over order to detain opposition leader 23 February 2021 Police storm the UNM office and detain Nika Melia 24-25 February 2021 Independent television journalist Vakho Sanaia and his family members attacked 3 March 2021 European Council President, Charles Michel, visits Georgia over deepening political crisis 4 Deepening political turmoil in Georgia Ahead of the parliamentary elections in October and NATO Parliamentary Assembly) have recog- 2020, the Parliament of Georgia voted on a Constitu- nized the elections as competitive and concluded tional Amendment to introduce an updated major that fundamental freedoms were respected; how- electoral reform (see previous quarterly report). Af- ever, the pressure on voters with an outcome of re- ter increasing political tensions, the agreement was duced public confidence in the electoral process has reached through Georgia’s Western allies’ facilitation, been emphasised. Domestic NGOs have been more and thus, Electoral Reform was already enshrined critical, assessing the 2020 parliamentary elections as earlier in 2020 in the 8th March Agreement. Follow- the least democratic and free of all the elections held ing the agreement, Georgia adopted a mixed elec- during the Georgian Dream government’s tenure. toral system, 120:30 seats (120 MPs elected through Their statement is based on the cases of verbal and proportional party lists, and 30 from single-mandate physical confrontations leading up to, and during, constituencies) favouring the MPs elected under the election day. party-lists votes (the so-called proportional sys- The 10th convocation of the Georgian Parliament tem) as 120 MPs out of 150 MPs are elected through had its inaugural session on 11 December 2020, a proportional vote. The electoral threshold for the attended by only Georgian Dream MPs (90 out of proportional elections was fixed at 1% of votes. 150 seats). In parallel to the inauguration session, The reform was well-supported and observed by the United National Movement, European Geor- Georgia’s international partners. Cross-party talks gia, Strategy Aghmashenebeli, Lelo, and Labor Party were facilitated by the United States and the Euro- leaders have come together and signed a memoran- pean Union. It seemed like the outcome satisfied the dum, in which their elected MPs pledge to terminate incumbent Georgian Dream government, the oppo- their parliamentary mandates. Girchi, the Citizens sition parties, civil society, and all other interested party, and the Kremlin-friendly Alliance of Patriots parties. However, despite successful cross-party talks relied on the USA and EU mediated talks and did not and their achievements, what was not foreseen was formally renounce their mandates. Ruling Georgian the political crisis that the parliamentary election re- Dream MPs offered acontroversial reaction to op- sults subsequently fueled. position parties’ actions. Some did not perceive it as After the announcement of elections’ preliminary a tragedy for Georgian Dream to be alone in the Par- results by the Central Election Commission (CEC), liament. For example, the recently-appointed prime Georgia found itself in political deadlock. All eight minister of Georgia, Irakli Gharibashvili, noted that opposition parties rejected the elections’ outcome, “it is a misconception that one-party rule is destruc- called the elections “rigged”, and refused to enter the tive,” whereas others hoped that opposition would new Parliament. Their demands included snap elec- enter the Parliament, citing the national interest. tions, the CEC chair’s resignation, and the immedi- Against the general opposition boycott, four oppo- ate release of alleged ‘’political prisoners’’. In general, sition MPs did quit the far-right Alliance of Patriots, nine opposition parties surpassed the 1% threshold. formed a new political union of “European Social- According to the CEC, the Georgian Dream received ists”, and entered the Parliament on 5 January 2021. 48.22% of votes. The biggest opposition party, Unit- Based on their statement, their decision was driven ed National Movement, received 27.18%, and the by the will to swiftly resolve the crisis. Besides, they rest of the votes were divided between other oppo- did not consider “well-founded evidence” of a rigged sition parties, giving them a maximum of 4 seats per election to be sufficient. Later, two leaders of the party in the Parliament. opposition party decided to enter the Parliament as Domestic NGOs and international observation mis- “citizens”. sions have been closely observing and assessing the Given developments and the fact that current par- post-election crisis in Georgia. Four international ob- liament is the least representative one since the servation missions (ODIHR LEOM, OSCE PA, PACE Soviet era, there is a risk that Georgia might be 5 compromising on its own Euro-Atlantic aspi- nent of the Euro-Atlantic integration process. The ration ambitions. Georgia’s Western partners are political deadlock requires finding a common and used to resolute decisions, progress and reforms as long-lasting solution that meets the expectations of the country has always been a committed propo- both Georgia’s citizens and its strategic partners. HIDE-AND-SEEK: BIDZINA IVANISHVILI’S DEPARTURE FROM POLITICS (AGAIN) When everyone thought that the political deadlock while condemning the United National Movement’s could not become worse or more complicated, years of governance as a “regime based on lies and
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