Auction vs. Posted-Price: Market Mechanism, Lender Behaviors, and Transaction Outcomes in Online Crowdfunding Zaiyan Wei and Mingfeng Lin1 December 2013 Abstract We study the effect of different market mechanisms, specifically auctions and posted- prices, on participant behaviors and transaction outcomes in an online personal loan market. We develop a game theoretic model to generate empirically testable predictions, then exploit a regime change on a peer-to-peer lending site, Prosper.com, to test them. We find that under posted-prices, loans are funded with higher probability, but only at higher initial and contract interest rates, and are more likely to default. While market-based auctions may be slow in dis- covering the correct price, “expert”-based posted-price selling may yield unintended, negative welfare consequences. Keywords: Multiunit-auctions, Posted-prices, Crowdfunding, Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, Ob- servational learning. JEL Classification: D44, L11, L86, G20 1Zaiyan Wei: Department of Economics, University of Arizona (Email:
[email protected]). Mingfeng Lin: Department of Management Information Systems, University of Arizona (Email:
[email protected]). The authors contribute equally in this research. We thank Keisuke Hirano, Christopher Lamoureux, Chris Parker, Stan- ley Reynolds, Siva Viswanathan, John Wooders, Mo Xiao, and numerous seminar participants for helpful comments and suggestions. All errors remain our own. 1 Introduction Auctions have long been a dominant market mechanism in electronic commerce. A prominent example is eBay.com, one of the earliest and most successful examples of e-commerce, where auctions are extensively used to match buyers and sellers through a competitive process. Auctions are also widely used in online business-to-business (B2B) procurements and many other contexts (Lucking-Reiley(2000), Bajari and Hortac¸su(2004), The Economist(2000)).