VOL. 17, NO. 1 – 2020

GEOSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EXPLAINED

geoexpro.com

HISTORY OF OIL TECHNOLOGY EXPLAINED The Land That Oil Forgot Pangea III: At the Heart of E&P

GEOTOURISM Oman’s Musandam Peninsula

RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Salt Biostratigraphy

INDUSTRY ISSUES Teaching the Machines

Previous issues: www.geoexpro.com Contents Vol. 17 No. 1 This edition of GEO ExPro focuses on the

GEOSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EXPLAINED Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean; Digitalisation and Artifi cial Intelligence; and Reservoir Management. 22 The Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah 5 Editorial is relatively underexplored and off ers plenty of potential. 6 Regional Update: Egypt - A New Regional Hub? 8 Licensing Update: Timor-Leste 10 A Minute to Read

26 14 Cover Story: Industry Issues: Machine learning combined with Pangea III: At the Heart of E&P knowledge gleaned from experts can be used to rapidly assess hydrocarbon Kognitus 18 Industry Issues: Teaching the Machines risks. 22 Country Profi le: Ras Al Khaimah – Great Hydrocarbon Potential 26 Reservoir Management: AI and Petroleum System Risk Assessment AAPG 30 Hot Spot: Empires of Gas in the Eastern 32 Mediterranean Distinguished explorationist Bernard Duval advises young 32 GEO Profi le: Bernard Duval – Vive geoscientists to “study, read, L’Aventure! attend technical society meetings, network − but also to 36 Seismic Foldout: Maximus Survey: get out in the fi eld and have fun!” Opportunities in Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 46 Confused by the range of climate 42 Recent Advances in Technology: From scenarios? Free online interactive Arrhenius to CO2 Storage – Part VI calculators can help make understanding the complexities of the 46 Industry Issues: Comprehending David Mark/Pixabay climate crisis a bit easier. Climate Complexities 50 GEO Tourism: Oman’s Musandam Peninsula – Geodynamic and Geopolitical Nexus 56 Reservoir Management: 66 Revolutionising the Prediction of Distinguished geologist Professor Ken Glennie’s work on desert Reservoir Performance sedimentary systems was hugely infl uential in early North Sea 58 History of Oil: The Land That Oil Forgot exploration. – Palestine, 1913–1948 62 Reservoir Management: Salt Biostratigraphy – An Untapped Source 11 12 10 11 of Data? 13 30 66 Obituary: Ken Glennie − The Passing of 6 58 22 36 68 50 a Legend 10 72 68 Exploration Update 68 8 68 70 Q&A: The Saudi Aramco IPO 72 FlowBack: The Africa Factor

GEOExPro March 2020 3

Editorial

A Hot Topic GEOSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EXPLAINED

Digitalisation, artifi cial www.geoexpro.com intelligence and machine learning; it is a hot topic. GeoPublishing Ltd Everyone across the world, 15 Palace Place Mansion including in the oil and gas Kensington Court London W8 5BB, UK industry, is talking about it, +44 20 7937 2224 although it could be admitted that in some ways we were a Managing Director little bit slow to join the party. Tore Karlsson Leo ViktorLeo Wolfert/123rf.com Why is this so important? Editor in Chief Money is, as ever, a prime Jane Whaley mover; according to a 2018 Wood MacKenzie report, the adoption of digitisation and machine [email protected] learning technologies could result in cost savings in the order of $75 billion in the upstream Editorial enquiries sector alone by 2023. Th ese are likely to come from things like speedier drilling, fewer dry GeoPublishing holes, more automation in production and the ability to undertake predictive maintenance. Jane Whaley Th ere are also benefi ts in health and safety, as fewer workers are required to work in +44 7812 137161 dangerous wellsite situations. [email protected] Th e technologies involved have developed rapidly in the last couple of years, and their www.geoexpro.com adoption by O&G is increasing at a very fast rate. At conferences and meetings, presentations Sales and Marketing Director on the subject of digitalisation and AI have moved in a very short space of time from simply Kirsti Karlsson explaining the concepts and how they could help the industry, to giving practical examples +44 79 0991 5513 and case histories of the time- and cost-savings of applying these technologies. Ideas that [email protected] barely a year or so ago were presented as new and innovative, such as using machine learning to rapidly update reservoir models in real-time, are becoming mainstream, as discussed in a couple of articles in this issue. Interestingly, there are newcomers among the ‘usual suspects’ of oil and service company Subscription people giving talks at these conferences and seminars; the likes of Amazon, Google and GeoPublishing Ltd Microsoft are now commonly sending delegates and speakers to address this industry, which +44 20 7937 2224 they see as ripe for further digitisation and ready for the disruption − to 15 Palace Place Mansion use that popular buzzword − that this will inevitably bring. Kensington Court London W8 5BB, UK As the use of digitalisation and artifi cial intelligence moves more [email protected] mainstream it becomes accessible to a greater number of people and to a larger range of companies, possibly allowing small start-ups to leapfrog GEO EXPro is pub lished bimonthly slower moving established organisations. In the always volatile oil for a base subscrip tion rate of GBP 60 a year (6 issues). industry, fl exible, fast-moving companies that embrace this trend, using We encourage readers to alert us their data as an asset to be mined and learnt from, will ultimately be the to news for possible publication Jane Whaley successful ones. and to submit articles for publication. Editor in Chief Cover Photograph: Main Image: Laurent Pascal Inset: Matson Collection, Library of Congress

Layout: Mach 3 Solutions Ltd PANGEA III: AT THE HEART OF E&P Print: Stephens & George, UK Total’s upgraded Pangea supercomputer delivers unprecedented computing power to help the company more reliably locate hydrocarbons, issn 1744-8743 enhances mathematical modelling and visualisation and improves the management of uncertainties, to provide a better vision and understanding of the subsurface. Inset: “The one spot in the Middle East that has no oil”: a look at the history of exploration in Palestine from 1913 to 1948.

© 2020 GeoPublishing Limited. Copyright or similar rights in all material in this publication, including graphics and other media, is owned by GeoPublishing Limited, unless otherwise stated. You are allowed to print extracts for your personal use only. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photographic, recorded or otherwise without the prior written permission of GeoPublishing Limited. Requests to republish material from this publication for distribution should be sent to the Editor in Chief. GeoPublishing Limited does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in this publication nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences. Opinions expressed by contributors to this publication are not necessarily those of GeoPublishing Limited.

GEOExPro March 2020 5 Regional Update

Egypt: A New Regional Hub? ABBREVIATIONS

Egypt is in the middle of a supply turnaround. Th e gas-rich country became a net importer of LNG in 2015 after domestic production failed to keep up with LNG Numbers (US and scientifi c community) supply commitments; however, the country announced its intention to cease imports M: thousand = 1 x 103 and begin exporting LNG through its main LNG terminal at Damietta in 2020. MM: million = 1 x 106 Th e volumes to support this restart will come from the surplus gas production B: billion = 1 x 109 of about 550 MMcfpd at the giant Zohr fi eld, where production reached 2.7 Bcfpd T: trillion = 1 x 1012 at the end of 2019. Supply to the three LNG trains in Egypt − Shell-operated Idku T1 and T2 and Eni-Damietta T1 − will produce 1.42 million tons a year in 2020. Liquids Th e uptick occurred after Shell and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation barrel = bbl = 159 litre (EGPC) renegotiated the contracts for the Burullus and Rosetta fi elds. In addition boe: barrels of oil equivalent to these volumes, West Nile Delta, Nooros, Atoll and Baltim South West will all be bopd: barrels (bbls) of oil per day major contributors to this ramp up. bcpd: bbls of condensate per day bwpd: bbls of water per day Earlier, Cyprus received permission from the EU to construct a subsea pipeline to Idku in Egypt to target growing demand in international gas markets. In Israel, Gas Noble Energy signed a long-term contract in September 2018 with Dolphinus MMscfg: million ft3 gas 3 Holdings, an Egyptian consortium, to sell 64 Bm of gas over a 10-year period from MMscmg: million m3 gas Tamar and Leviathan into the Egyptian domestic market through the existing East Tcfg: trillion cubic feet of gas Mediterranean Gas pipeline. With in-place export infrastructure and growing domestic demand, Egypt is well positioned to serve as a gas export hub for the region. Ma: Million years ago

3 Egypt’s gas supply and demand balance (Bm ) LNG Rystad Energy Upstream Analytics Liquifi ed Natural Gas (LNG) is natural gas (primarily methane) cooled to a temperature of approximately -260 oC.

NGL Natural gas liquids (NGL) include propane, butane, pentane, hexane and heptane, but not methane and ethane.

Reserves and resources P1 reserves: Quantity of hydrocarbons believed Egypt’s hydrocarbon production is set to rise to about 2.2 MMboepd in 2020, recoverable with a 90% probability thanks to supply additions from Baltim South West and Zohr. With this, Egypt will have brought most of the resources discovered to date online. Further ramping P2 reserves: up and maintaining production levels will be contingent upon future discoveries. Quantity of hydrocarbons believed In the recent past, Egypt has awarded relatively unexplored blocks to majors, so recoverable with a 50% probability success or otherwise on these has potential to change the production outlook. P3 reserves: Top Discoveries Quantity of hydrocarbons believed Th e Zohr gas fi eld was discovered by Petrobel in 2015 in the Shorouk block, recoverable with a 10% probability with the gas found in a Miocene Carbonate reef reservoir. Petrobel is a 50/50 Oilfi eld glossary: joint venture between Eni and EGPC. Th e fi eld was brought online in 2017 and www.glossary.oilfi eld.slb.com currently produces over 2.5 Bcfpd. Rystad Energy estimates that the fi eld holds a total of 3.55 Bboe of recoverable gas. Th e Nooros gas fi eld was discovered by Petrobel through drilling a directional well to a depth of 3,600m. Th e well struck a 60m-thick gas-bearing sandstone reservoir of Messinian age. Th e fi eld was brought online in July 2015 and it is currently producing about 1.2 Bcfpd of gas. Rystad Energy estimates that the fi eld holds over 650 MMboe of recoverable gas reserves. Pharonic Petroleum Company, a 50/50 joint venture between BP and EGPC, discovered the Atoll gas fi eld in the North Damietta off shore concession in 2015. Th e exploration well encountered 50m of gas pay in an Oligocene sandstone reservoir and the fi eld was brought online in 2016. Rystad Energy estimates the fi eld to hold about 250 MMboe of recoverable gas reserves. Aditya Saraswat, Senior Analyst, Rystad Energy

6 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 7 Licensing Update Timor-Leste:

Long Awaited 2nd Round Quaternary 2.6

In October 2019 the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste (East Neogene Tertiary Timor) launched the county’s second licensing round, releasing 23

a total of 18 new blocks for public tender for Production Sharing Cenozoic Contracts (PSC), covering a large percentage of the total on and Paleogene off shore area of the country. 66* Seven of the off ered blocks are onshore. Th ey cover all the northern and eastern halves of the country, a total of nearly 10,000 Cretaceous km2, with the largest covering the whole eastern end of the country. Of the remaining four onshore blocks in the country, two have South Atlantic starts South opening Atlantic Alpine orogeny Alpine been reserved for Timor Gap, the National Oil Company of Timor- Leste, and two are already the subject of PSCs. Th e whole onshore 145 area has been covered by both gravity and magnetic surveys and orogeny Laramide data is available on 20 wells. Jurassic

Th e remaining 11 new blocks are in the off shore area to the Mesozoic

south of the country, in the Timor Sea. Th ey lie in waters that breakup Pangaea increase rapidly to depths of nearly 3,000m in the narrow Timor 201*

Trench, about 50 km from the south coast, before shallowing Norwegian-Greenland Sea starts opening towards the Timor Shelf where the water depths are about 200m. Triassic North Sea rifting Th e blocks encompass over 50,000 km2 in total, the largest being 2 Block R in the south-west, which covers 6,522 km . Off shore data 252* includes details of 80 wells and the whole off shore area is covered by 2D seismic of varying densities, as well as a number of 3D Permian surveys. Timor-Leste was recognised as an independent country in

Central Atlantic starts opening Atlantic Central 299 2002 after decades of fi ghting against Indonesian occupation. Th e Phanerozoic Carboniferous fi rst licensing round was held in 2005/2006, but further rounds were delayed due to a territorial dispute with Australia, which rifting Gulf of Mexico was fi nally resolved in August 2019. Several fi elds, including Bayu Extinction Events Big Five The * Undan (350–400 MMbc and 3.4 Tcfg) and Buff alo (31 MMbo) were transferred to Timor Leste’s exclusive jurisdiction as a result of this 359* agreement, while the Greater Sunrise fi elds, which contain about 5 Devonian Tcfg, will be jointly developed by the two countries. OF PANGAEA FORMATION Roadshows will be held in Houston, London, Singapore and Perth and bids must be submitted by 9 October 2020, with the Paleozoic successful bids due to be announced on 4 December 2020. No 419 signature bonus is expected and general terms call for full cost Silurian recovery, 5% royalty, 60:40 profi t split in favour of operators and 443* 30% income tax. Ordovician Variscan orogeny Variscan Timor Leste

486

Caledonia orogeny Caledonia Cambrian

The Great Unconformity 541

Legend New Release Onshore Blocks New Release Off shore Blocks Reserve Blocks for TIMOR GAP Existing PSC Areas Precambrian Neoproterozoic

8 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 9 A Minute to Read… News from around the world

Insights into Africa’s Fast-Changing E&P Horizon Th eAfrica E&P Summit provides a platform for upstream collaboration and deal-making, showcasing Africa’s hydrocarbon hotspots and the most current licence rounds active in the region. Viewed by the industry as the ‘go-to’ event in Europe on Africa’s upstream, the third Africa E&P Summit will take Network Energy Frontier place in London, UK, on 20–21 May. Th e Africa Licensing Promotion and NOC showcase this year will focus on presentations by Angola, Liberia, Senegal, Nigeria and Namibia and for the fi rst time will include an in-depth Q&A with the audience on the geological and geopolitical attractiveness of these trending areas. In addition to the governments present from these focus countries, there will be 50 high-level speakers from leading companies active in Africa’s oil and gas game. Delegates who attend refer to the event as off ering valuable technical and market insight into investment opportunities, superb networking and a great opportunity to meet with decision makers.

Seismic in the Energy Mix the MER strategy in the North Sea and its role in the diversifi cation of the energy mix. A speaker from the Oil and Seismic 2020 will take place on 29–30 April in Aberdeen. Gas Authority will set the scene and the keynote will be given Conference Chair, Chrysanthe Munn, BP North Sea by John Etgen, Distinguished Advisor for Seismic Imaging Exploration Manager, has set the vision for the conference at BP. By highlighting the role seismic plays in the energy and, together with an expert technical committee, has mix, this conference is not only relevant to geoscientists developed a strong programme featuring a range of operator and geophysicists, but also to those in non-geo-related roles, and service company case histories, examples of collaboration, such as petroleum engineers and senior decision makers in new projects and new technology examples. both operators and service companies. For more information As well as focusing on the ‘here and now’, the conference contact the Society of Petroleum Engineers Aberdeen (SPE) will look ahead to the future and how seismic feeds into website. Exciting Senegal Licensing Round

Th e2020 Senegal Licensing Round is the fi rst international competitive bidding round in Senegal arranged by the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy together with PETROSEN. It will be an open competitive tender, with applications evaluated on the basis of a set of standard criteria. Twelve blocks in the MSGBC Basin in a range of water depths will be available for licensing. Th e Senegal off shore area is one of the most prolifi c hydrocarbon provinces in the world. Intensive exploration eff orts over recent years has led to a succession of signifi cant discoveries, notablyFAN, Sangomar (formerly SNE), Tortue, Teranga and Yakaar. However, the full potential of the basin and the continental slope is still to be realised. Modern seismic data and improved geological models indicate a prospective zone located in the MSGBC deep off shore. Extensive regional 2D and 3D multi-client seismic data provides a high quality dataset that enables an unprecedented understanding of the evolution of the basin and especially the deep off shore. A summary of the regional geology and petroleum prospectivity of the blocks on off er is provided on the dedicated website. Th is summary is based on the technical studies undertaken by PETROSEN and its partners, TGS, GeoPartners and PGS, utilising the variety of regional multi-client seismic data available.

10 GEOExPro March 2020 Asia Pacific E&P Conference The2nd joint PESGB–SEAPEX conference on Asia Pacific large and small, including BP, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Mubadala, E&P will take place on 24–25 June, 2020, following the Oil Search and Woodside, through focused contracting successful inaugural event in 2018. companies, plus academic and consulting expertise. Not to be The full technical programme features 32 talks across missed is the talk by South East Asian veteran Geoff Bennett, a two days, extending geographically from India and Sri repeat of his famed talk on Kuala Langsar which won the prize Lanka eastwards to Papua New Guinea, and from Australia at the SEAPEX 2018 Christmas ‘My Favourite Screw Up’ event. northwards to Japan, Mongolia and North Korea, covering most There’ll also be a vibrant exhibition of booths and posters, prospective regions in between. As you would expect from including a screening area for Euro 2020 football matches. these two organisations, the programme is focused on technical Networking will of course be a major part of the event, with case studies of recent discoveries and new opportunities. Broad plenty of coffee and lunch breaks, the celebrated quiz evening industry representation comes from key regional E&P players and the traditional SEAPEX pub crawl. Largest Earth Science Programme With the largest earth science technical programme in our history, GeoConvention 2020 will feature a fully integrated programme representing a diverse collection of earth science

disciplines, including geology, geophysics, petrophysics, minerals, Partnership GeoConvention mining, water, earth, environment and the energy world. From panel discussions to targeted technical content, workshops and field trips, GeoConvention provides the ultimate opportunity to expand your knowledge and push your capabilities to the next level. In addition to featuring over 110 exhibitors, showcasing their leading-edge technologies, solutions and workflows, GeoConvention 2020 will provide you with the opportunity to enhance your skills and further your expertise while you share and network with Canada’s largest integrated geoscience conference. With over 5,000 attendees expected and 100 sessions identified, GeoConvention 2020 is a once-in-a-decade opportunity to learn and knowledge-share with the brightest minds in academics and energy industry professionals, as well as thought-leaders from throughout Canada and the world. Registration is now open. You are invited to attend, exhibit and sponsor GeoConvention 2020 on 11–13 May at the Telus Convention Centre in Calgary, Alberta. A Conference and Exhibition Catered for Everyone

A place where you can see the familiar faces of the industry, but also meet the most forward thinking and inspirational people in the field, the82nd European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers (EAGE) Annual Conference and Exhibition is the networking place to be this year! The programme has over 1,300 technical presentations covering a wide variety of disciplines including geophysics, geology, mining and civil engineering, computer science, HSE and sustainability. There are also five forum sessions, gathering leaders of the industry to discuss the most pressing issues in the wider geoscience and engineering field. For those interested in looking for more focused educational sessions, a variety of workshops, short courses, and field trips will be available. Additionally, the EAGE Annual will bring together around 350 exhibitors in the ground-breaking exhibition. Companies will showcase their emerging technologies, state-of-the-art innovations, new product launches and valuable industry services. Attendees can also maximise networking opportunities at all the social events. The EAGE Annual 2020, to be held8–11 June in Amsterdam, will provide something of value to everyone! If you register before 15 March, you can take advantage of the early registration fee. Please visit the EAGE website for more details.

GEOExPro March 2020 11 A Minute to Read… News from around the world

Africa – New Ideas, Plays High Value Barrels and Innovation At least ten of the 17 discoveries made on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) last year will be presented at the Th eHGS/PESGB annual Africa Conference will take place NCS Exploration – Recent Discoveries conference in Oslo, 15–16 September 2020 at the Norris Conference Centre in Norway, on 12–13 May. Roughly 600 MMboe were found Houston, Texas. on the NCS in 2019, the best year for value creation since Exploration in Africa has undergone several exploration the discovery of Johan Sverdrup in 2010. Th e programme cycles throughout its history. In many places where giant committee is particularly proud to announce that there will be discoveries have been made, production is in decline and presentations on the three biggest discoveries: Liatårnet, Ørn investment has not sustained the growth of the industry. and Echino South. Th e largest, Liatårnet (200 MMboe), was Th e theme for the 2020 conference is focused therefore on made in Neogene sandstones and represented a new play model. what can be and what has been done diff erently. What ideas should be tested? What has industry learned that should guide us toward new ways of thinking about exploration and development in Africa? What are the possible new areas with hydrocarbon potential? What technology(s) can help unlock additional reserves in existing basins and help fi nd new reserves in unexplored areas? How can government attract and promote investment in new and existing areas? Th e call Norwegian Petroleum Directorate for abstracts ends 1 April 2020. Please submit all papers to the Africa2020 website. First Gas for Leviathan

Leviathan, the giant Israeli gas fi eld discovered byNoble Energy in 2010, delivered its fi rst gas to the Israeli domestic Aker BP suggest that the discovery wells 25/2-10S (1986) and market in December 2019, with the fi rst exports, to Egypt 25/2-21 (2019) belong to the same accumulation. and Jordan, following in January 2020. Th e fi eld, which holds 33 Tcfg in place and 22 Tcfg recoverable, lies 125 km west Last year’s discoveries on the NCS prove that small but of Haifa in water depth of 86m and is one of the largest gas high value discoveries are becoming increasingly more discoveries of the decade. With a total production capacity of important because NCS exploration has reached a stage where 1.2 Bcfgpd, Leviathan will more than double the quantity of large, giant discoveries are less likely, although obviously natural gas fl owing to the Israeli economy today. sought after. Th e industry therefore now recognises the high Noble Energy made the fi rst gas discovery off shore Israel value of smaller discoveries near existing fi elds that can in 1999. It delivered the country’s fi rst domestic natural gas in rapidly be put into production at low cost. Th e success rate for 2004 from Mari-B, to be followed by the 10 Tcfg Tamar fi eld, drilling these prospects is also generally high: around 60% for which came on production in 2013 and currently fuels 70% of drilling in established licences vs. 20% in frontier exploration Israel’s electricity generation. Th e additional energy supplied and APA licences. by gas from Leviathan will allow Israel to phase out imported coal in electricity generation. Two smaller fi elds, Karish and China Opens Up Tanin, are set to start production in 2021. Early in January China announced that for the fi rst time The Leviathan fi eld. foreign companies will be allowed to explore for and produce oil and gas in the country, opening up the industry to fi rms other than state-run organisations. Previously,

Noble energy international companies could only enter the industry in joint ventures with Chinese fi rms, mainly state-owned majors such as CNPC and Sinopec. Interested companies will need to be registered in China with assets of 300 million yuan (US$43 million) and any permits obtained will be valid for fi ve years, with the possibility of extending for a further fi ve. Th is move is designed to increase domestic production in China, which currently imports 70% of the crude oil it refi nes and nearly half its natural gas consumption. It also hopes that opening up the sector to competition will encourage

Noble Energy Noble technological innovation and reduce production costs.

12 GEOExPro March 2020 Leading Subsurface Conference

DEVEX 2020, the leading subsurface conference of its kind, will take place on 5–6 May in Aberdeen. This is the only conference CONNECT of its size which is focused on the full cycle of reservoir discovery, evaluation, development and recovery in the UK. Multi-Disciplinary Collaboration The committee driving the conference is represented by most major operators and as a result there are some excellent operator and service company collaboration case histories which will be showcased at the conference, along with some excellent technology development stories. The technical presentations will run in parallel and the conference will also feature some specialised masterclasses, an excellent learning opportunity. Subjects include how cores integrate with the wider reservoir; artificial intelligence; temperature modelling; and imaging.

New Aberdour Bay. Andrew Buchan/PixabayAndrew Your subsurface models, reservoir engineering data and drilling results must all work together to deliver trustworthy decisions within tight deadlines. RESQML is the industry’s standard to exchange part or all of a dataset quickly, reliably and independently of any software or TheDEVEX Field Trip will take place on 4 May. It will operating system version. visit Gamrie Bay and New Aberdour Bay and will be led by Jim This was demonstrated in a live presentation Ritchie of Forvie Geoscience Ltd. We are also delighted that of a reservoir workflow involving 6 different the Young Professionals represented on the committee are software platforms seamlessly exchanging a driving forward their own YP Event, which will take place on full field dataset in minutes! the first day of DEVEX. To take your workflows to higher levels of New Permian Programme collaboration, make sure your software takes advantage of Energistics data standards. CGG and Fairfield Geotechnologies have signed a second cooperation agreement to acquire a series of large-scale, high- density, multi-client surveys in the Central Basin Platform (CBP) of the Permian Basin in West Texas. The CBP is a tectonically uplifted geological structure that separates the deep Delaware Basin and the shallower Midland Basin, which together make up the greater Permian Basin www.energistics.org/RESQML-Pilot-2018 of West Texas. The cooperation agreement covers an area of approximately 17,000 km2 across several counties, close to the New Mexico border. The new wide-azimuth datasets will deliver high quality data in order to provide a better understanding of the structural complexity of the transition between the CBP and surrounding basins to provide unprecedented insight into the potential of this very prospective area within the Permian Basin, one of the most prolific regions in North America.

GEOExPro March 2020 13 Cover Story: Industry Issues Pangea III: At the Heart of E&P Total’s new supercomputer has a cumulative computing power of 31.7 petafl ops – equivalent to 170,000 laptops – and storage capacity of 76 petabytes. It is one of the most powerful supercomputers in the industry – but what does this mean for oil and gas exploration? PIERRE-OLIVIER LYS and PAUL ROBIN, Total

Alfred Wegener is certainly accepted Pangea has dramatically evolved in as being foremost among the scientists order to keep abreast of competition for whose work has promoted the processing capacity. Less than ten years development of modern geology and after its conception, in mid-2019, the therefore the petroleum geosciences: newest version of the supercomputer his famous theory of continental drift was brought online. Pangea III can is still today the backbone of oil and gas deliver an amazing computing power exploration, as illustrated by the recent of 25 petafl ops, bringing the overall Alfred Wegener (1880–1930), the German interest in the conjugate Brazilian and computational capability of the Total meteorologist and geophysicist who Angolan margins. Group to 31.7 petafl ops – the equivalent formulated the fi rst complete statement of In his theory, Wegener proposed in of 170,000 laptops combined together! the continental drift hypothesis, including the 1915 that the continents once formed It also brings the cumulative storage concept of the major land mass, Pangea. a contiguous, single land mass which capacity to 76 petabytes (i.e. equivalent he called ‘Pangea’, a word formed to about 50 million HD movies), and after the Ancient Greek pan (‘entire, in June 2019 Pangea III was ranked – managed to bring down its power whole’) and Gaia (‘Mother Earth, land’). the number 1 most powerful HPC consumption per petafl op by a factor of Carrying both the ideas of uniqueness in the industry, and the 11th most more than ten! and entirety, the name was the perfect powerful computer globally. While match for the High Performance this new supercomputer multiplied More Petafl ops Equals More Oil! Computer (HPC) that Total decided the processing power of the previous Seismic refl ection has been at the to install in Pau, France, back in 2013: version by almost fi ve, IBM – who foundation of oil and gas exploration Pangea was born. developed and installed Pangea III for decades, and is widely used by the industry to image the subsurface and therefore to increase the chance of drilling successful exploration and development wells. Seismic waves sent into the ground by a seismic source spread in the subsurface, refl ect at geological interfaces and propagate back to the surface where tens of thousands of sensors record them. Th e process, which is repeated thousands of times, allows us to image what lies beneath our feet down to 10 km or more, after the refl ected waves have undergone a complicated processing sequence, which we call ‘seismic imaging’. Complex equations Laurent Pascal mimicking the propagation

14 GEOExPro March 2020 higher resolution velocity models in Total order to better predict pore pressure and design well architecture accordingly; or precise time-lapse imaging for reservoir monitoring and the subsequent optimisation of development or infill wells. The ability to perform such imaging studies internally is definitely seen to be a competitive advantage. Strong interaction between imaging geophysicists and geologists, such as specialists in structural geology, means it is possible to integrate several disciplines in velocity model building – a crucial step in the seismic imaging process. These models can then be used to test several scenarios in just a few days, thanks to the extra computing power available, allowing the geoscientists to easily refine the velocity model and obtain a better, more focused image. This internal expertise also gives the company a priceless flexibility and reactivity when short-term problems requiring a quick but precise answer arise. For instance, as soon as a well has been drilled the velocity model and associated migrated image can be updated, thanks to the well information Velocity model (top) and migrated seismic image (bottom) in a complex geological setting. Red provided in a very short timeframe; areas correspond to high velocity salt bodies. typically, just a couple of weeks. A decision on, for example, drilling or of waves in the subsurface are used to relocate the seismic updating a sidetrack wellbore could then be made rapidly, events recorded to their actual location in a 3D image called a based on a better local image. ‘cube’, a process that is called ‘migration’ by geophysicists. Last, but not least, having an HPC available is also Whilst the principles of migration have been understood advantageous to Total’s internal R&D when they need to since the very beginning of seismic exploration, migration test and put in production the new imaging algorithms they algorithms have only been used in the past 20 years because deliver on a regular basis. Thanks to the close collaboration they are so greedy with regards to computing power. In between the imaging and research teams, these more complex fact, the first migration algorithms were based on simplified and/or efficient algorithms can quickly meet the needs of equations or assumptions in order to cope with the limited operational geophysicists, allowing them to tackle specific computational capabilities available back then, but this problems in a short timeframe. R&D can be compared to the resulted in images whose quality could still be improved, fuel that is needed to power the competition engine – the especially in complex areas. Nowadays, High Performance supercomputer – so as to win the race for oil and gas! Computers allow us to process huge amounts of data, using algorithms able to model the physics of seismic More Power, Smaller Footprint waves propagation more and more accurately, which in Shifting from Pangea II, which had been installed in 2016, turn generates more precise, higher resolution images, and to Pangea III basically multiplied the processing capacity therefore reduced uncertainties for prospect evaluation, by a factor of five, which required a major shift in the HPC well positioning or reservoir monitoring. architecture: indeed, it was quickly realised that a GPU So, having more petaflops leads to more oil, produced for (Graphic Processing Unit) was the only technology capable less in a safer environment. of delivering the desired computing power while ensuring an optimal energy consumption, and as a result the CPU (Central Leveraging E&P Processing Unit)-based architecture of Pangea II had to be Pangea III is part of Total’s overall strategy to develop a unique completely revised. know-how in seismic imaging, so as to be able to tackle the While CPUs and GPUs are both silicon-based processors, ever more complex problems arising from the company’s they process tasks in fundamentally different ways (see GEO wide-ranging portfolio. These requirements include subsalt ExPro Vol. 13, No. 1). A CPU is much more versatile and can imaging in Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico or deep offshore Angola; work on a variety of tasks thanks to an architecture adapted

GEOExPro March 2020 15 Cover Story: Industry Issues to working in a sequential mode, nvidia and made of a few cores (up to 24). A GPU, on the contrary, is designed to handle multiple tasks at the same time in a very effective manner, and is therefore made up of thousands of smaller and more efficient cores, an architecture aimed at parallel computing. Nowadays, GPUs The difference between a CPU (left) and GPU (right). deliver a much higher computing power than CPUs, and algorithms used by Total in order disciplines across the Total Group. can be up to 100 times faster for tasks to make them compatible with this For example, the machine will allow requiring massive parallel computations new architecture. As a matter of fact, reservoir engineers to run many more like machine learning or the handling the geophysicists and IT engineers simulations, in order to better capture of huge datasets – which is what we are spent a full year adapting most of and manage uncertainties, or to actually doing in seismic imaging. the codes to this new configuration, quickly match actual production data Pangea III could therefore be an extraordinary effort which to the reservoir model. New disruptive described as a bespoke configuration eventually delivered unmatched and methods like enHM (ensemble History that gives more power but with a unprecedented performance in the Matching) will produce better field- smaller environmental footprint. applications used for imaging. history matching and more reliable Changing the HPC architecture for production forecasts, while reducing Pangea III was a sensible choice, since A Versatile Tool the research time required. In addition, it paves the way for new algorithms Although Pangea III is – as of today other branches of the Total Group based on artificial intelligence, but at – mainly used for seismic imaging will benefit from the vast power of the the same time this choice involved a purposes, its versatility and computing HPC, since, for instance, chemical and complete overhaul of the production power will also be beneficial for many molecular modelling and analysis will be made available to researchers from Overview of a few racks from Pangea III. the Refining and Chemicals branch of the company. In fact, the only stakeholders who complained when Pangea III was launched were the employees who cycle to work in Pau: the water feeding their changing rooms had been heated by Pangea II’s cooling system, but since the new supercomputer is much less energy intensive, it was no longer able to heat the water to an acceptable temperature. Fortunately, a new heating boiler was installed for them, making everyone happy – and Pangea III a completely shared success! Laurent Pascal

16 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 17 Industry Issues

Teaching the Machines Machine learning in oil and gas exploration and production has successfully begun to scale up from pilots Th e issue is not that those processes do not work, but that they absorb to specifi c and bespoke industrial solutions – but must huge amounts of time from skilled, remain grounded in the real world. operationally-critical staff who have better things to do. Using machine learning by JAKE BOUMA, Cognite teaching a piece of software to carry out that manual paperwork with minimal If the rapid pace of technological Machine learning will change the oversight does not need to replicate development over the last 30 years way the industry runs. Not because it is and replace the skills of scientists and has taught us anything, it is that going to learn how to replace humans, engineers, but it can free them up to make Utopia is not coming. Th e fl ying car but because we can teach machines to the most of their specialist skillset. and teleportation are still a long way enhance the skills, performance and off , and if they do ever arrive, we all cognitive power of the humans involved, Too Much Information know better than to imagine that in ways we never thought possible. Another issue is the sheer volume of they will magically transform society. data now being generated and collected. Genuine technological progress is Real-World Problems We might be forgiven for thinking that always grounded in the real world, Let’s take a very ordinary problem: any and every bit of data gathered is of with all the missteps, wrong turns and paperwork. value, but it is actually the opposite – imperfections that go along with it. Written processes, printed forms many companies have spent millions And so it is with the latest buzzword and manual documentation are not on collecting, cleaning and storing data zipping back and forth across the oil and disappearing as slowly as you might from vast numbers of sources, only to gas industry: machine learning. Despite think. Th e oil and gas industry’s be left staring at a mountain of data that the hard lessons we have learned about need for complex machinery, precise they do not really know what to do with. the application of technology to the engineering, rigorous safety standards A recent survey by McKinsey estimates real world, some machine learning and responses to variable conditions that 80–90% of the data budget of evangelists are still enthusiastically mean it is paperwork-heavy; very heavy. major companies is spent gathering and selling a vision of sentient robots that Many companies and operators are still cleaning data, with only 10–20% being will solve all the industry’s problems in wedded to forms, checklists and fi ling in spent on building models based on that a single stroke. triplicate. data that actually generate value.

18 GEOExPro March 2020

Cognite Machine learning can help by Let’s say, for instance, that your is being performed on one of its automating the rules of collection, pump has a temperature sensor on neighbours that typically operates in connection and cross-reference the motor, so you can prevent it from parallel with it; or how long it is since necessary to refine that mountain of exceeding its operating temperature. the filters have been changed; or simply data into recognisable patterns. Those However, the sensor data does not that it is a hot day outside. There are patterns can then provide insight reflect the broader operational context, many factors that need to be considered. for the same critical staff to make so it has somewhat limited potential So machine learning models can watch more informed decisions at crucial for monitoring and decision-making. for patterns, but the trick is to efficiently times; enhancement of skills, not a It does not know that the pump has to present all of this data to the engineer. replacement of expertise. But too many work a bit harder when maintenance That way, they can use their experience data science companies are still selling the ‘snake oil’ of algorithmic magic – Paperwork – a real-world problem. the idea that all you need to do is hand over the mountain of data and they will Cognite sort it into solutions. That is simply not the case.

Numbers are Passive Oil and gas companies need to be careful about what data they collect, collate and press into action. Numbers without meaning, purpose or application are just that – numbers. They cannot do anything by themselves. However, when data collection and machine learning are used in targeted, contextual and specific ways, they can make a significant difference.

GEOExPro March 2020 19 Industry Issues

system that could recognise the unique combination of factors that indicated the beginning of chalk influx in the wells, allowing engineers to intervene before any real damage was done. This system is estimated to be saving the operator up to $15 million a year.

People Still Matter Many industry operators are seeing the value of this highly collaborative approach, not just in terms of involving experts from every stage of their operations The Valhall oil field. in designing the models, but in encouraging separate software to diagnose the problem without gas operator faced a unique problem. and data providers to work together. needing to chase data from multiple Chalk silt in the seawater was gradually A rising tide lifts all boats, and the systems. plugging the wells, and existing sensor specialist solutions that collaborations data was only monitoring pressure can produce have developed into new Different Every Time and temperature. The huge amount of products, services and business models In oil and gas, no two locations are the broad historical data, fed into an off- for the industry as a whole. same. Geography, weather, location, the-shelf model, was proving to be not In other words, it is much more about legislative environment and more can nuanced or specific enough to detect how leaders in the industry choose all vary wildly. This, in turn, requires a when wells were about to clog or to to behave than any mythical power specific and bespoke industrial solution predict future events, and it led to costly machine learning may or may not have. where existing equipment is adopted, or delays. A unique set of circumstances Think less about finding machines to do designed and manufactured to order, to – the geography, the machinery and the difficult jobs we no longer want to solve unique challenges. the physics of the problem – needed a do, or to replace the skills and expense So when it comes to applying the unique machine learning response. of the human beings that currently power of data and machine learning to By combining physics-based do them. Think more about finding those varying environments, it follows modelling with specific and targeted ways in which machines can be taught that specific systems and software sensor data, a development team to enhance and improve the power should also be adaptable, following consisting of subject-matter experts and of those humans to make informed along with a way of working that allows data scientists created a live warning decisions. for unforeseen changes and can adapt to a changing system. They must be able to Helping humans to make informed decisions. change as lessons are learned. Despite the need for tailored solutions, oil and gas companies should Cognite not let perfection be the enemy of ‘good enough’. The time and trouble required to design a system that can do everything you could ever want costs far more than developing an MVP – minimum viable product – that can be up and working quickly. You need to be able to build it fast, test it fast, and change it fast, in order to keep pace with the lessons you are learning on the ground.

Chalk at Valhall On the Valhall gas field in the North Sea off the coast of Norway, engineers working for an independent oil and

20 GEOExPro March 2020 SHIFTING GEARS IN THE DIGITAL SPEEDWAY

SEG.ORG/AM/2020

CALL FOR ABSTRACTS CLOSES 1 APRIL 2020 5 PM CENTRAL TIME

GEOExPro March 2020 21 Country Profile Ras Al Khaimah: Great GIACOMO FIRPO Ph.D., Hydrocarbon Potential RAK Gas There is rejuvenated interest in the Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah – an underexplored province surrounded by producing fi elds and on petroleum resources (upstream and trend with major discoveries. downstream). Th e national energy company of Ras Al Khaimah is RAK Gas, which is 100% Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) is the is an ideal base from which to expand owned by the Government of RAK. RAK northernmost Emirate of the UAE into the Middle East and Africa. For Gas manages a portfolio of operated and and borders the Musandam Peninsula the past decade, Ras Al Khaimah has non-operated participation in upstream (see GEO Tourism, page 50), the been consistently rated ‘A’ by Fitch exploration properties in the Middle Omani exclave that protrudes into and Standard & Poor’s rating agencies East and Africa. Th e company also owns the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Th e and already the Emirate is home to processing facilities at the Khor Khwair Emirate is famous for its rich history, more than 38,000 businesses from gas plant, comprising two separate gas dating back seven millennia, and for its 100 countries representing over 50 treatment trains that have been involved diverse natural beauty such as pristine industries (from RAK Media Offi ce). in the processing of gas from Oman’s beaches and desert landscapes, set Th e Emirate is led by His Highness Bukha and West Bukha fi elds and the against the background of the Hajar Sheikh Saud Bin Saqr Al Qasimi, UAE neighbouring emirate of Umm Al Mountains. Supreme Council Member and Ruler Quwain. RAK is also becoming an important of Ras Al Khaimah, and His Highness Th e domestic assets were the subject international business centre and Sheikh Mohamed Bin Saud Al Qasimi of a successful licensing round in hosts a large number of companies Crown Prince of Ras Al Khaimah. 2018, which attracted the interest of from across the globe. Th ese represent major and supermajor oil companies. various sectors and industries such The Oil and Gas Sector At present the entire off shore domain as oil and gas, banking, tourism, Th e oil and gas sector of the Emirate (Block A) is operated by ENI (90% pharmaceuticals and minerals. is regulated by the RAK Petroleum interest), while Block 5, onshore and Centrally positioned at the crossroads Authority (RAKPA), the entity which transition zone, is operated by PGNiG between Europe and Asia, the emirate oversees the management of the (90% interest). Th e two remaining

Figure22 GEO 1: ViewExPro of Ras March Al Khaimah 2020 City with the Hajar Mountains in the background. © Kingmaphotos/Dreamstime.com Ras Al West Khaimah Bukha Arabian Gulf Bukha

Tibat Saleh

RAK B

UAE Oman Saudi Mubarek Arabia

Umm Al Sharjah Quwain onshore concessions (Blocks 6 and 7) Cretaceous are still open for investment (Figure 2). reservoir Ras Al Khaimah is surrounded intervals is in by multi-Tcf operated fields and the order of discoveries, with over ten producing oil 320 Bcf; 200 Ajman Sajaa and gas fields within a 70 km radius. Bcf in Wasia The closest examples are the Bukha and 120 Bcf fields in Oman to the north-east and the in Thamama

0 10 20 30 40 RAK Gas Sharjah, Mubarek and Umm Al Quwain reservoirs. fields to the south-west. Further reserves To date, two historical discoveries are expected to Figure 2: Map of the current RAK concessions and existing oil and gas fields. have been made inside the emirate: the be present in Saleh field (gas and condensate) and the the deeper and shallower sections with is strongly related to the compressional RAK B undeveloped discovery (oil, gas the possibility of multi-Tcf potential. event associated with the obduction and condensate), both located offshore The RAK B discovery, made in 1975, of the Oman-UAE ophiolite, which Ras Al Khaimah approximately 45 km about 30 km south-west of Saleh, was took place in the Upper Cretaceous from the coast. Both Saleh and RAK initially considered likely to be too small (Turonian). This event, leading to B targeted the Cretaceous carbonates for economic development. Recent work the onset of the development of of the Arabian Platform (Wasia and revised volumetrics suggest that the Hajar Mountains, contributed and Thamama groups), but did not there may be sufficient recoverable liquid to reconfiguring the topography of specifically target shallower Cenozoic or resources to enable development with the area, with a fold and thrust belt deeper Permian to Jurassic potential. an economic tie-back to Saleh. Further dominating the onshore domain, The Saleh field, in production since potential is again envisaged to be present the verge of which is approximately 1984, has been operated by various in the deeper and shallower sections. coincident with the current mountain companies (Gulf, Chevron, RAKOPET, front, and a foreland basin developing RAK Petroleum, DNO) until the Geological Setting to the west of the uplifted area (Figure operatorship returned to RAK Gas in The present day structural and 3). The offshore domain is mainly 2016. The estimated GIIP hosted by the stratigraphic setting of Ras Al Khaimah characterised by extensional features,

INTERPRETATION LEGEND Late Miocene Unconformity Early-Mid Miocene Unconformity Top Oligocene Top Pabdeh Group (Late Oligocene Unconformity) Late Eocene/Oligocene Unconformity RAK Gas Top Aruma Top Arabian Platform / Top Wasia Formation Figure 3: Vintage north-west to south-east seismic section showing the different structural provinces. GEOExPro March 2020 23 Country Profile

the consequent variation in the depositional setting from supratidal (sabkha) to shallow marine (platform) were responsible for the development of hard grounds and the process of dolomitisation, which was extensive between the Permian and the Triassic and occasional in the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The Cenozoic is largely eroded or not deposited inland but is thickly developed in the offshore domain, filling the accommodation space created in response to the foreland basin evolution. Figure 4: Aerial view of RAK geology. (Modified after Ellison et al., 2006) From a lithological point of view, the succession presents thick sections which appear to be geometrically deposition of clastics and, subordinately, of rhythmically bedded turbiditic reconfigured (often inverted) along carbonates and evaporates. sandstones and mudstones, alternated the margin of the thrust front Spectacular exposures of the Late with evaporitic horizons and shallow (foredeep), due to the influence of the Palaeozoic (Permian) and Mesozoic water carbonate layers. compressional stress field. stratigraphy are present in the onshore The mechanism of the structural area (Figure 6). This section of the Treasure Yet to Be Discovered development heavily influenced the stratigraphy is principally represented Ras Al Khaimah’s structural framework depositional history of the region, which by limestones and dolomites that were is characterised by a number of strongly can be subdivided into a pre-Cenozoic deposited in a stable platform setting on zoned areas, with extensive thrusting phase, dominated by carbonates, and a the Neotethys Ocean passive margin. observed onshore to the south-east Cenozoic phase, characterised by the Periodic fluctuations in sea level and and extensional fault blocks primarily RAK Gas

Figure 5: Play cartoon: a broad spectrum of exploration solutions.

24 GEOExPro March 2020 Table 1: Proven and potential plays in Ras Al Khaimah. related to local underlying salt PLAY PROVEN? RESERVOIR SOURCE tectonics offshore to the north CENOZOIC Proven in • Marginal and non-marine • Calcareous claystones/ and north-west. Despite the Iran coarse clastics and associated marls of Aruma Group increased effort required and evaporites (Fars Group – (Upper Cretaceous); logistical concerns that this Miocene); Reefs in shallow • Bab intra-shelf basin complexity brings to exploration, marine setting (Neogene); shales (Aptian); • Limestones, dolomites, • Shilaif intra-shelf basin it also opens up the possibility claystones and cherts of the shales (Cenomanian); of a variety of exciting and Asmari Fm (Pabdeh Group – • Arab Fm (Tithonian) potentially very rewarding play Oligocene); and Diyab Fm types to be discovered in the area. • Limestones, packstones, (Oxfordian) As mentioned, oil and gas claystones and mudstone of mudstones. exploration and production the Pabdeh Group. Potential in RAK territory has been also for deep water high historically limited to the energy deposits (calci- Cretaceous carbonates turbidites) (Paleogene). of the Arabian Platform. CRETACEOUS Proven in • Limestones of the Wasia • Bab intra-shelf basin However, looking at the bigger RAK Group (Mishrif and Mauddud shales (Aptian); Fm – Albian/Cenomanian); • Shilaif intra-shelf basin picture, major UAE oil and • Limestones of the Thamama shales (Cenomanian); gas accumulations are also Group (Shu’aiba, Kharaib, • Arab Fm (Tithonian) encountered in Permian, Jurassic Lekhwair, Habshan and Diyab Fm and Middle Cretaceous reservoir Formations – Berriasian/ (Oxfordian) units, with minor production Aptian). mudstones. from Lower Cretaceous intervals JURASSIC Proven in • Limestones and dolomites • Arab Fm (Tithonian) (e.g. offshore Abu Dhabi, Dubai). the UAE of the Musandam Group and Diyab Fm This could imply the existence (Sinemurian/Tithonian). (Oxfordian) of further reserves yet to be mudstones. discovered at deeper levels than EARLY–MID Potential • Dolomite of the Ghail/Hagil • Potential for the Gharif are currently typically targeted. TRIASSIC Formations (Triassic). shale (Permian) and Additionally, a variety of for the Silurian age Qusaiba Fm. trap types are left to explore in Proven in • Dolomites of the Khuff/Bih • The Silurian age the Cenozoic section, including LATE PERMIAN –EARLY the UAE Formation (Late Permian– Qusaiba Fm organic- reefal, salt onlap, diagenetic, and TRIASSIC Early Triassic). rich graptolite shale channel/turbidite traps. KHUFF is the source of Khuff Recent integrated petroleum gas in vast parts of basin studies, based on 2D and 3D the Arabian basin seismic, potential field data (FTG (Poppelreiter, 2013) but and aeromagnetic) and geological wells in RAK do not field work, have identified a whole penetrate this interval. array of proven, potential and PERMIAN Proven in • Dolomites and clastics of • Potential for the conceptual play concepts which PRE-KHUFF the UAE the pre-Khuff/Bih (Gharif/ Silurian age Qusaiba could constitute the base for the Unayzah Fm?) (Permian). Fm future exploration of the territory (Table 1). The number and diversity of the available play solutions (Figure 5) provide clear insights into the great potential still to be unlocked in the Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah. References available online.

Figure 6: Wadi Bih: exposure of the Jurassic Musandam Group showing evidence of deformation due to compressional stress.

GEOExPro March 2020 25 Reservoir Management AI and Petroleum System Risk Assessment A pragmatic use of machine learning can be applied to assess hydrocarbon charge risks. MATHIEU DUCROS and FÉLIX GONÇALVES, Kognitus

At this turning point for the oil retirement, companies are facing the algorithm achieves a good prediction and gas industry, with escalating problem of retaining expertise while capability, assessed through a set of competitiveness and a need to optimise simultaneously reducing costs and simulations kept for testing it, the productivity, petroleum companies increasing eff ectiveness. solution develops a set of statistical tools must pick their new exploration projects Taking these issues into that will automatically or interactively carefully, making sure the returns consideration, a new solution that produce risk and sensitivity analyses. have the potential to be as high as takes advantage of the investments Th is solution is a fi rst step in making possible, while keeping the costs and made in numerical modelling has basin modelling useful throughout risks low. Numerical methods such as been developed by Kognitus, a the full life cycle of E&P assets by petroleum system modelling (PSM) technology company that specialises continuously updating the geological or forward stratigraphic modelling in the use of analytics and AI to help model as new data is acquired. have proved that they can play a key O&G companies gain insights from role in the assessment and mitigation subsurface data. Th is system is based Geological Expertise Remains Key of exploration risks in both mature both on knowledge gleaned from Risk assessment workfl ows in and frontier areas (e.g. Chenet et al., experts, which enhances and guides exploration still predominantly rely 2014; Bryant et al., 2014). Formerly the determination of the uncertainties, on subjective and qualitative expert- exclusively accessible to major oil and and on machine learning (ML) based evaluations which, in striving gas companies, these techniques are techniques, which provide maps of risks for consistency, follow standardised now part of the exploration workfl ows at exploration scale and in timeframes procedures and refer to tabulated values commonly used in most E&P teams. compatible with operational studies. (Milkov, 2015). As geology must remain However, in order to keep up with Essentially, the solution takes the at the core of the process, this new the evolution of geological knowledge explorationist’s petroleum systems solution provides a systematic way to through a prospect’s life cycle, these model as an input from which to infer estimate quantitative and geologically powerful simulation methods can be geologically meaningful uncertainties. meaningful uncertainties to be used in very labour-intensive, which hampers Th e process starts with the PSM, based on its embedded geological the regular updating of the models with generation of a learning base from the expertise. Th e petroleum system, with the most recent data and information. results of physics-based simulations, all its elements and processes, is the Additionally, as the present generation which will support the training of cornerstone of the approach. Expert of exploration experts approaches an ML algorithm. Once the trained systems are designed to help the

Global workfl ow for an accurate and effi cient risk analysis embedding geological knowledge and concepts. Kognitus

26 GEOExPro March 2020 Kognitus

Expert systems are embedded in the solution to provide geologically meaningful uncertainties on key elements and aspects of petroleum systems. explorationist quantify uncertainty operational projects yet preserves Applying the Methodology on key parameters through the accuracy. The results of this new method can consideration of geological concepts, The software relies on an extension of be provided in any format used by with all the information integrated in the ‘proxy models’ approach (also called explorationists. It is therefore possible the numerical model (Hacquard, 2018; surface responses), initially used in to get access to maps of risk (P10, P50 Ducros et al., 2018). meteorological modelling, which is well and P90) on every simulated property, The approach also offers the first suited to the study of spatial outputs such as source-rock thermal maturity, effective tools to include complex (Gervais et al., 2018). It combines several overpressure or volume of generated uncertainties, such as source rock ML techniques, such as regression and petroleum. Since the method also reactivity, which are usually discarded clustering, to learn the main aspects of uses statistical techniques to compute not due to their low impact on the petroleum system. After the learning sensitivity analysis, it gives a better petroleum systems but because we lack phase has been undertaken using a small understanding of the key controlling the tools or knowledge to account for (usually less than 100) set of simulations, factors of the petroleum systems that them. It strengthens the role of PSM it is possible to perform an interactive, contribute uncertainty to the risk. It as an integration tool by creating a rigorous and accurate statistical analysis is also possible to use the approach for consistent link between information which is required for the quantitative pore pressure prediction through logs coming from different exploration risk assessment and sensitivity analysis using P10/P90 estimates of pressure at facets; for example, palaeobathymetry, (see figure overleaf). This technique the planned position of a well. source-rock thickness and horizon ages leads to a significant reduction in The complete methodology was – all generic input data for PSM – can the time required to undertake risk applied to assess the deep petroleum be used together to provide quantitative analysis compared to the brute force system of the frontier Levantine Basin estimates of uncertainty on source rock of techniques such as direct Monte in the Eastern Mediterranean (Ducros, richness in a consistent first guess. Carlo sampling, or derived Markov 2019). Significant gas discoveries have Chain Monte Carlo approaches, which been made there since 2006 in the Robust Risk Assessment require thousands of simulations. Oligo-Miocene section, where there After defining quantitative Lastly, these results, when used in is a proven biogenic system. While uncertainties, the Kognitus approach a Bayesian framework, can assist in Cretaceous source rocks are known to uses the best physics-based simulation updating the petroleum system model outcrop in Lebanon, their presence in and ML techniques to provide during the whole exploration life cycle. the deep basin is still speculative, so quantitative risk analysis in an adapted This is set to be a major game changer, the objective was to study the potential format for petroleum system assessment as it would speed up the process of re- for a deeper thermogenic system and (output risks provided on maps, 2D evaluating risks and resources and help to look at where hydrocarbons could sections, well logs, etc.), in a time identify satellite fields while acquiring have possibly migrated towards the frame which remains consistent with new data. Oligo-Miocene reservoirs. Uncertainty

GEOExPro March 2020 27 Reservoir Management

STEP 1: STEP 2: STEP 3: Generation of a training base Principal component analysis Dimensionality reduction

≈ a1. + b1. Uncertainty 2 Uncertainty 1 ≈ ai. + bi. Training base of Experimental design simulation results ≈ an. + bn.

STEP 4: STEP 5: Regression Use of the trained‐model U2 � � � � 𝑈𝑈푈 , 𝑈𝑈푈 , 𝑎𝑎 ,𝑏𝑏 Use of the … U1 trained model � Training set� � � 𝑈𝑈푈 , 𝑈𝑈푈 , 𝑎𝑎 ,𝑏𝑏 Trained model of (uncertainties, coefficients of Sampling of the Statistical analysis the coefficients of the projection) uncertain space (risk, PoS, sensitivity…) Kognitus the projection Detailed illustration of the machine learning workflow. During step 1 a learning base is generated using the physics-based simulator. A principal component analysis (PCA) then provides a set of uncorrelated maps (components of the PCA), with decreasing variance, on which to project the simulation results. A reduction of the dimension is obtained by keeping the first components of the PCA (explaining more than 95% of the variance of the simulations for instance). The machine learning takes place in the 4th step to learn the relationship between uncertain parameters and coefficients of the projection. Once the relationships are determined they can be used to perform rigorous statistical analyses on the results of interest (step 5).

on ten elements was taken into account: which were found to be over-mature valuable results for the exploration of three on source rock characteristics and immature respectively, but that the still poorly known but promising (reactivity, depth and petroleum there is a high risk along the margins Levantine Basin by giving access to potential); two on the thermal system (Cyprus, Lebanon and Israel) and in the the identification of sweet spots and (nature and thickness of the crust); basin offshore Israel. Sensitivity analysis presenting clues on how to further three on the hydrodynamic system demonstrated that the nature and reduce risks. The approach can therefore (permeability of the regional Eocene reactivity of the source rocks would be be used in early basin exploration to seal, extension of the Oligo-Miocene the key elements to be studied in order evaluate the source rock maturity, or turbiditic system and time-to-depth to de-risk this aspect of the Levantine to assess the whole petroleum system, conversion); and two on the Messinian Basin petroleum system. providing maps of risks compatible Salinity Crisis (timing and duration). with common risk segment mapping The results showed that there is Potential for Changes and Continuity methods, or for continuous model no doubt on the maturity level of the The Kognitus system for assessing update. Cretaceous source rocks in the deep risk has proved to be both time- This methodology could pave the offshore basin and onshore Lebanon, effective and robust. It provided highly way to a standardisation of quantitative risk analysis within a portfolio, as it Risk analysis results are computed on different classical formats used by explorationists. provides a framework in which risks can be reviewed using quantitative and standardised uncertainties. It could also be used to enhance the role of PSM by re-evaluating risks and resources as new data is acquired. Thus, this technique could lead to a major increase in the use of PSM during all phases of basin exploration and production. New approaches like this showcase the importance of human geological expertise, which remains at the heart of any successful AI approach. Kognitus

Acknowledgement: Beicip-Franlab for access to TemisFlow References available online.

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GEOExPro March 2020 29 Hot Spot Brought to you in association with NVentures.

Empires of Gas in the The Eastern Mediterranean is a simmering crucible of Eastern Mediterranean gas and geopolitics. PETER ELLIOTT and JON FORD, NVentures Ltd

Th e Eastern Mediterranean theatre has become a pressure and soon ExxonMobil looking to reveal multi-Tcf fi elds in point for high stakes energy politics between Europe and deepwater Nile Delta acreage. the Levant, and by proxy Russia and the West. Th e stage is Meanwhile, Turkey is conducting its own seismic and set, with mega-gas basins and hungry markets. Gas is the drilling campaigns including over acreage claimed by both hydrocarbon of choice for many policy makers aiming to Cyprus and Turkey: three wells are believed to have been hit tough carbon targets. Th e protagonists are warming up: drilled to date, results unpublished. Turkey has also allied Israel and Egypt are developing recent large gas discoveries; itself with Libya, which may result in seeing further acreage Lebanon is jostling for the drill bit, with Total planning awarded over contested areas, including some currently being to drill soon; Cyprus is sparring from the centre ground promoted by Greece. with undeveloped gas at Aphrodite and Calypso; Turkey is impressing a strong independent footprint over the northern The Race for Exports area, bringing Libya in as a strategic partner; whilst Greece Th is exploration activity may well discover further signifi cant will play a pivotal role in keeping a lid on, and letting the gas volumes of gas ready to stir up the energy politics of these out, of this simmering crucible. major and minor littoral countries. Israel has announced its fi rst gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, with Leviathan now The Scramble for Gas onstream. Reversing gas through the Ashkelon-El Arish Licensing and wildcat activity is currently focused on the line (from Israel to Egypt) is the fi rst step to larger gas sales off shore basins of Egypt, Lebanon and Israel. Total, Eni and through new pipelines in the future. Energean wish to see Novatek have committed to drill the fi rst off shore well in gas sales to Greece over time. Israel, Greece and Cyprus are Lebanon this year in Block 4, with a second licence round agreed on a new EastMed 1,900-km gas line from Israel to underway in the country. Pharos, Cairn, Energean and Greece, picking up Cypriot gas along the way. Turkey and Ratio took acreage off shore Israel in the 2019 bid round, the EU are exchanging diplomatic warnings in response to and Energean, a rapidly growing energy presence, found the EastMed pipeline as vested interests surface, with the substantial new gas reserves at Karish North in 2019. Mixed Turkey-Libya axis challenging the dominance of Israel-Egypt- results off Cyprus have defl ated the search for the Zohr Cyprus for long-term gas and LNG exports, and Greece likely lookalikes bubble, at least for now, but Egypt has come back to to be the common gas recipient. Egypt in the meantime plays the fore, with Shell, Eni, Energean (as the purchaser of Edison) a fascinating role like a pressure regulator, importing and exporting gas as the country and its gas supply, demand and infrastructure all develop. Egypt went from exporter to importer during the Arab Spring, but now with gas from Zohr and Leviathan, the Idku and Damietta terminals are once again sending LNG cargoes abroad. Th e corporate potential winner from this fast moving energy saga is Energean, who in a few years has gone from a small independent with a fi eld in Greece to a regional energy force, in the process of buying Edison, and now positioned to supply gas from three jurisdictions with stakes at either end of the gas value chain – and exposure to political outcomes.

30 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 31 GEO Profile

According to Bernard Duval, geologists are the happiest people Bernard Duval: around because “we have fun!” He tells us about his long and illustrious career in exploration, for Vive L’Aventure! which he was awarded the AAPG Distinguished Achievement Award JANE WHALEY in 1995.

Despite retiring over 20 years ago from French supermajor excellent opportunity to quickly acquire geological and Total, Bernard Duval is still a signifi cant fi gure in the operational experience. He also met his wife, Francine – exploration business; in fact, in 2019 he was the recipient “my fi nest discovery” – during his time there. of the AAPG’s Michel T. Halbouty Outstanding Leadership He spent most of his career with Total, except for a Award, given in recognition of outstanding and exceptional period in the late 1960s, when he was seconded to help leadership in the petroleum geosciences. But like so many the Venezuelan national company CVP create a ‘master geologists, he found himself following this profession because plan’ for the exploration of that country, including a re- he wanted to work outdoors. evaluation of the remaining hydrocarbon potential. “We “I like mountains – they have been good to me,” he says. spent a terrifi c three years in Maracaibo, preparing this “I was born in Nice, in the south of France, close to the plan and helping to train young Venezuelan geologists,” magnifi cent scenery of the ‘arrière-pays Niçois’. I went to an he says. elite military polytechnic school where I studied mathematics After Venezuela, Bernard returned to Total in Paris to and engineering, but after a summer holiday in Morocco join the New Ventures team, with various assignments working for a small company in the oil industry I realised that and postings around the globe, including working on the a profession in petroleum would give me the chance to live opening of the Mahakam delta of East Kalimantan and and work outside. I had found geologists to be the happiest initiating Total’s North Sea programme, before becoming people in any company; they always seemed to have fun, so I E&P vice president of North America, based in decided that that was what I wanted to do!” Calgary. After a year of national service as a tank “Strangely for a petroleum geologist, offi cer in the army, Bernard went to Grenoble I also spent nine years in the mining University to study geology. Because of business,” he adds. “I was working his engineering experience he did an in Paris as the assistant to the accelerated programme in geology in a E&P VP for Total, and I was single year, which involved a lot of fi eld asked to transfer to a subsidiary work and a dedicated instructor for his company that specialised in small group. “It was intense – but we also looking for uranium. I didn’t managed to spend quite a lot of time skiing really know anything about and mountaineering while looking at rocks!” mining and, of course, it he says with a laugh. “Th is was in the Alps, involves very diff erent geology so I learnt a lot, as not many places have this – metamorphics, volcanics kind of complicated geology. If you can become and the like – but I enjoyed it. familiar with such complex rocks, you can Th is mining experience helped understand anything in petroleum geology. A me a lot; it gave me a wider global geologist can never have enough fi eld work.” perspective and an insight

Gaining Experience Bernard completed his studies with a master’s degree in petroleum geosciences at the École Nationale Supérieure du Pétrole et des Moteurs (IFP) in Paris and on graduating in 1958 he joined Total as a geologist. His fi rst assignment was in Libya, as a fi eld surveyor, wellsite geologist and

log analyst; an Bernard Duval

32 GEOExPro March 2020 into a different work culture, as well as a chance to get to know new people and places, such as Australia, Brazil, Niger and Argentina. I found the experience of managing full-cycle activities in these countries enriching. I would advise anyone reading this to take any opportunity offered and to ‘get out of the box’!”

Using Experience Bernard, who speaks fluent English and Spanish as well as his native French, obviously took his own advice and revelled in the opportunities that he was offered in his career, wherever in the world they were. Bernard Duval “In this profession you need a lot of creativity; you have to learn to Bernard at the Cusiana discovery well in Colombia, with the French Ambassador, who was also a childhood friend. interact with a range of people from a variety of backgrounds and different countries”, he says. “I have been lucky multi-disciplinary teams, and I have individually, to find out what they liked enough to work in many wonderful tried to bring that to the rest of my and discovering where they would fit places, including some, like Libya and career,” he adds. “Experience has also in best. A lot of these decisions are Venezuela, that are no longer so easy to taught me that it is important to get now done on paper or computer, but I visit. We loved Canada, especially living to know all the people in your team, think they should be done personally in Calgary with the Rocky Mountains especially if you are the boss. It’s not wherever possible.” as a backdrop, so our two daughters, just about how you build your team, In 1985 Bernard was asked to return who were quite young then, could ski it’s how you understand those people to the main Total E&P organisation as – although I did find the winters a bit and then how you use them within the Senior Vice President – Exploration, long. And Libya was wonderful; the team that matters. I always spent a lot responsible for the worldwide exploration desert was magnificent and we also of time talking to people in my team strategy for the company, a position he spent a lot of time visiting the beautiful Roman ruins. Bernard receiving the 2019 Michel T. Halbouty Outstanding Leadership Award from 2019 AAPG “However, I think my wife and I President Denise Cox. left part of our hearts in Venezuela; we loved the country. It was the best time ever, in all senses. Technically I learnt a huge amount; we had access to so much material and documentation on petroleum geology, so that for me it was an academic exercise akin to a doctorate. We were able to spend a lot of time in the field, looking at myriads of rocks. And we were successful! After working on the project for a year we suggested that, instead of searching for stratigraphic traps on the edge of the Barinas Basin, our colleagues should drill in the deepest part of the basin to investigate the oil that we suspected had been trapped before the synclinal basin formed. They were dubious, but did as we advised and the first well in our programme found oil, the Caipe field. “One of the most important things I learnt from my Venezuelan experience was the value of team work, especially AAPG

GEOExPro March 2020 33 GEO Profile held until his retirement in 1995. During me to further enrich my this time he worked on upgrading the experience. Companies upstream portfolio of the company, have thanked me for resulting in some notable successes, such my contributions, as the Cusiana and Cupiagua fields in but of course such an Colombia and Peciko in Indonesia. experience also brings “An important aspect of this job something new for me. was that I was responsible not only for It is interesting work, the technical parts of the business but but also challenging, also for New Ventures negotiations because I have to relative to the acquisition of assets, work alone and to do where with my teams I was able to everything myself use my worldwide experience to be and rely on my own Bernard Duval creative in the art of making deals,” resources, without any Cowboys – a lesson in successful deal making: show your strength but keep smiling all the time! Bernard explains. “For example, staff to assist me like in when we were looking to acquire the past; it can be very acreage in the Bongkot area offshore intense! in my old IFP School, where I still Thailand we decided that the classic “I liked doing this work but the teach topics like petroleum systems, profit-sharing model would not work travelling can get very tiring, so I have risk analysis, E&P decision-making, satisfactorily. Instead, we proposed a reduced it a bit in the last few years,” asset and portfolio management and deal that included technology transfer he continues. “ This means I can spend upstream economics.” and training and offered the eventual more time in our 200-year-old house in transfer of ownership of the asset to a village just outside Paris, where I can Be an Explorer the NOC. This proved a successful see the fields all around me but from What advice would Bernard give approach, which we subsequently where we can easily get into Paris for to young geoscientists entering the used elsewhere as well, and which concerts and theatre and the like. industry now? demonstrates that one should not “I have also been involved in training “Well, I wouldn’t give too much always ‘go by the book’, but be prepared and teaching petroleum-related courses advice of a technical nature – I think to be flexible and to build constructive in a number of countries for different that will look after itself as there is partnerships.” organisations,” he continues. “I try plenty of excellent training available. My to instil in my students a sense of advice is more on the human aspects. Mentoring and Teaching adventure by using real life cases of “I would tell them to gain as much “Since my retirement in 1995 I have petroleum systems and encouraging experience as possible, to go out into the acted as advisor to various companies them step by step until they can make world and open their minds. If you want – I prefer to say mentoring them rather the ‘discovery’ themselves. I have to be an explorer, then like me, you must than consulting – which has allowed realised that I love teaching, especially be an optimist and persevere. You must go to the rocks and do field geology; we Bernard (left) boarding a helicopter en route to an oil field platform in the Austral Basin, Patagonia, don’t do enough field work these days Argentina. – just looking at a computer doesn’t tell you what a sand or a carbonate is really like, or what irregularities it may have. A lot of our young people are not

Bernard DuvalBernard trained or mentored enough and can become too reliant on the computer. “Try to get into operations somewhere, if possible overseas, because you will have to interact with new people and try new things,” Bernard adds. “And when you go back home, don’t get too stuck in the office, make sure you get out and about; and also get some level of authority, maybe leading a small team, and build on that gradually, learning what command is. “Continue studying, read a lot, attend technical society meetings and create a good network, but get outdoors too; and most importantly – have fun!”

34 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 35 MCG acquired 23,612 km of long-o set high resolution 2D seismic data over the Campeche Basin and the Yucatan Platform within the Gulf of Mexico. Potential  eld data were acquired jointly with the seismic.

The hydrocarbon potential of the Campeche Basin continues to be the subject of interest to international oil and gas companies. The Maximus survey aims to develop and improve Mexico: the current understanding of the spatial distribution of salt structures and sedimentary packages from shallow water to deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The data has been reworked to improve the velocity model, based on a better understanding of the expression of the salt in Maximus Survey: Opportunities the area and the underlying deeper trends. The data has been migrated with RTM, Gaussian Beam as well as KPSDM, as each algorithm has unique qualities. in Deepwater Gulf of Mexico The seismic line shown in Figure 1 is located in the middle of the Bay of Campeche, running from the Yucatan Platform towards Cordilleras Mexicanas. The main trapping mechanisms shown in this line are salt-related fold belts (Figure 2), and  ank structures to the salt domes (Figure 5). Figure 1: Regional Gaussian Beam PSDM seismic. Line from the Yucatan Platform towards deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Figure 3: Location map of the Maximus survey.

Figure 2: Improved imaging of the fold belt complex due to Gaussian beam migration.

36 GEOExPro February 2020 GEOExPro February 2020 38 During this and further model building KPSDM was the Enhanced Imaging The Importance of Depth Imaging main tool for assessing the sediment modelling. Gaussian  e  nal images were built from each of the three di erent Beam Migration (GBM) was e ective in areas with complex algorithms, KPSDM, GBM and RTM. Careful consideration Depth modelling using several algorithms has signi cantly improved salt imaging in the ray-paths such as those found near salt  anks and areas with and testing of key parameters for each migration was deepwater Bay of Campeche. overhanging salt and salt feeders or stalks. Lastly, Reverse undertaken. At this phase of the project there were no surprises Time Migration (RTM) was used, mainly to evaluate the in parameterising each of these migrations, as they had all JEROEN HOOGEVEEN and JENIFFER MASY; MultiClient Geophysical AS MCG model below the allochthonous salt and for the modelling of been used and the parameters optimised along the way. the autochthonous salt.  e interpreters used all migrations Key parameters such as aperture, aperture taper and anti- The Bay of Campeche lies along the western border of  e original processing was done by iterations of to adjust the salt interpretation.  e process was iterated alias  lters had been tested and optimised. For each of the the Yucatan Peninsula. The shelf contains a system of sediment model-building, picking top salt,  ooding at least  ve times until no further improvement was seen. migrations the maximum aperture was set to 12,000m radius. horst and grabens that are affected by salt intrusions, with salt velocities, picking bottom salt and revising Some regional complexity was added to the model, including GBM has the advantage of being better at imaging steep creating very complex structures, which involve severe the salt picks where needed.  ese 2D velocities were a new transition from the base of the autochthonous salt to dips such as seen at salt  anks and salt stalks (Figure 5). folding, faulting and fracturing due to salt movement, used to build a pseudo 3D velocity model which avoided the base of the model (Figure 4).  e 45 Hz mid-frequency RTM  nal product gave the best mobilised by sediment loading. Mobilisation of the depth-velocity mis-ties at line intersections.  e initial Care was taken to adjust for some unreasonably high pre-salt images (Figure 6). salt was initiated around the Late Cretaceous, possibly model was generated using time RMS velocity models, velocities at or near tips of salt structures that were All these modi cations to the original models and DEC 6-10, 2020 | HOUSTON, USA by a combination of the sediment overburden and followed by at least three iterations of sediment velocity suggested by the tomography. inclusion of additional migration algorithms resulted in Laramide-style compressive stresses from the south- tomography and inclusion of salt geometries for each  e  nal, individual 2D velocity models of the selected signi cant improvements in the sediment and deeper west. Salt uplift continued during Palaeocene, Eocene line, which were then incorporated into the  nal 3D lines are structurally consistent and highly resolved, tying pre-salt imaging within the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Join us for an extraordinary and Oligocene depositional sequences in the coastal model.  e resulting imaging from Kirchho Pre- at the intersections and producing better pre-stack migrated Peninsula. With this improved new dataset, exploration event that will connect plain and persisted until the Miocene. Within the Stack Depth Migration (KPSDM) was of good quality, images. companies will be able to generate new exploration Bay of Campeche many structures are influenced especially in the sediment package. However, it did leave prospects in preparation for future bid rounds. you with more than 700 by thick allochthonous middle Jurassic salts, while some room for improvement in more complex areas, Figure 5. Image of salt anks. (a) Original KPSDM; (b) New KPSDM; (c) New GBM; (d) New RTM Mid Frequency. in the Yucatan Peninsula, salt bodies are thinner where a re ned salt interpretation may lead to enhanced speakers including global and considered to be more autochthonous. Primary imaging, especially with more advanced migration a b energy leaders. Discuss the exploration targets within the Bay of Campeche algorithms. In such complex areas, more work needs to include conventional pre- and post-salt depositional be done to help de ne the salt geometries. challenges and opportunities structural and stratigraphic traps, both in the shelf of energy in transition and margin and in deep waters. Since 2013, when Mexico changed its policy allowing so much more. foreign exploration companies to invest and explore for oil and gas onshore and o shore Mexico, there has been an increased interest in the hydrocarbon potential of c d Learn More and the southern Gulf of Mexico. MultiClient Geophysical (MCG) acquired the Maximus survey in 2015–16 over Register Today at the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Platform.  e Maximus survey is a high-resolution 2D seismic survey WPC2020.COM with very long o sets (12 km) and deep recording (14 seconds) with the objective of providing a clear image of all the play elements of the petroleum systems o shore Mexico.  e processing sequence used state-of-the-art Figure 6: Image of pre-salt section. (a) Original KPSDM; (b) New KPSDM; (c) New GBM; (d) New RTM Mid Frequency. broadband solutions. High quality pre-stack time, pre- a stack depth, gravity and magnetic data are available, and b this survey is in a position to support future licence bid rounds o shore Mexico. Figure 4: (top) Original velocity model; (bottom) new velocity model. Velocity Model Imaging complex structures, such as fold belts and  e process of enhancing the product was aided salt-related structures, is challenging.  ese challenges signi cantly by involving interpreters with extensive were addressed though new pre-stack depth migration local experience. Changes to the shallow salt involved sequences. However, the success of seismic imaging re-picking the base of many of the salt geometries and ©2020_WPC_R15 c d methods not only depends on data quality, but also removing signi cant salt stalks.  e deeper salt was PRESENTED BY on accuracy of the background velocity model. When modi ed to remove signi cant volumes of salt, which lateral velocity variations are signi cant, the generation relied on the interpreters’ experience and knowledge of an accurate velocity model using a standard velocity of the expression of the salt and its movements in the analysis is di cult. For this project, a thorough local geological setting.  e salt modelling followed interpretation of salt bodies and a local velocity model standard methods of picking a top salt on a Kirchho was created in order to support high quality imaging stack image, but several migration algorithms were used techniques. to test base salt scenarios after ‘salt- ooding’ the model.

GEOExPro February 2020 39 40 GEOExPro February 2020 Recent Advances in Technology

“Order and simplifi cation From Arrhenius to are the fi rst steps toward the mastery of a subject.” CO Storage Thomas Mann (1875–1955), 2 1929 Nobel Prize in Literature Part VI: More on the laureate Simple Greenhouse Model We continue the discussion of the simple greenhouse model introduced in Part III (GEO ExPro Vol. 16, No. 4). LASSE AMUNDSEN and MARTIN LANDRØ, NTNU/Bivrost Geo

Th e model discussed in Part III, which is widely used to terrestrial radiation. Trapping of this radiation by atmospheric explain the greenhouse eff ect in a conceptual way, succeeds gases is called the atmospheric eff ect – commonly known as in its main purpose: to demonstrate that an atmosphere the greenhouse eff ect because it is similar to the way the glass which absorbs and re-emits some of the radiation from the that covers a greenhouse transmits shortwave solar radiation Earth’s surface results in a surface that is warmer than if there and absorbs longwave thermal infrared radiation. were no atmosphere. Th e Earth’s surface temperature was In Part III we introduced an educational model of the determined as a function of the atmosphere’s absorptivity greenhouse eff ect, a short summary of which is: the Earth’s of the terrestrial longwave infrared (IR) radiation by energy system is driven and maintained by the radiation exchange balancing the incoming and outgoing shortwave and between the system and space. Th e Earth absorbs shortwave longwave radiation. Here, using the same model, we derive solar radiation energy – in the form of visible light and the temperature of the atmosphere from Kirchhoff ’s law of ultraviolet radiation – after refl ecting about a third of thermal radiation. the incident solar radiation back to space. Th e shortwave Th e energy emitted from the Earth and its atmosphere radiation is converted to heat at the Earth’s surface, and then is commonly referred to as thermal infrared radiation or re-radiated as terrestrial (i.e. longwave or infrared) radiation

Image of sunset on the Indian Ocean taken by astronauts aboard the International Space Station. Above the darkened surface of the Earth, the sequence of colours roughly denotes several layers of the atmosphere. Deep oranges and yellows appear in the troposphere, which extends from the Earth’s surface to a height of 6 km at the poles and up to 20 km at the equator. Several dark cloud layers are visible at this level. Variations in the colours are due mainly to fl uctuating concentrations of either clouds or aerosols (airborne particles or droplets). The pink to white region above the clouds is the stratosphere, which extends up to approximately 50 km above the Earth’s surface. Above the stratosphere, blue layers mark the upper atmosphere (including the mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere and exosphere) as it gradually fades into the blackness of outer space. The troposphere contains over 80% of the mass of the atmosphere and almost all of the water vapour, clouds, and precipitation. Its global average temperature range decreases from 289K (16°C) on the surface to 222K (-51°C) at the top of the troposphere. Nitrogen forms 78% of the troposphere’s chemical composition, oxygen 21%, argon 0.9%, water vapour 0.3–4% and carbon dioxide 0.04%. Weather, as we see it on Earth, happens in the troposphere. The stratosphere holds 85–90% of atmospheric ozone created by the photolysis – the decomposition by solar radiation – of oxygen. Ozone absorbs ultraviolet light from solar radiation and causes temperature to increase rather than decrease with height, from about 222K (-51°C) at the bottom to 258K (-15°C) at the top. (Image is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations experiment and Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, Johnson Space Center.)

42 GEOExPro March 2020 Popular educational model of the greenhouse effect: a global mean increases the absorption efficiency β of one-layer atmosphere above the the atmosphere. Equation (1) reveals surface of the Earth. The atmosphere that an increase in β results in an absorbs β of the Earth’s IR radiation. increase in the surface temperature T. The atmosphere heats and re- radiates energy to space and back Equation (1) follows from the to the surface. Kirchhoff’s law from radiative balance of the Earth. The 1860 states that the emissivity of the Earth must be in energetic equilibrium atmosphere is equal to its absorptivity; between the radiation it receives from if this equality were not true, there would be a violation of the laws of the Sun and the radiation it emits out thermodynamics. The Earth is in to space. If Earth were not in radiative energetic equilibrium between the balance, the climate on the planet would radiation it receives from the Sun and not be stable. The simple model in the the radiation it emits to outer space. From this equilibrium we can calculate figure succeeds in its main purpose: the Earth’s surface temperature and to demonstrate how an atmosphere the atmospheric temperature. For that absorbs and re-emits some of diagrammatic clarity, a gap has been the radiation from the Earth’s surface introduced between the atmosphere and the ground. results in a surface that is warmer than if there were no atmosphere. In Part I of this series, we introduced the concept of the blackbody – a perfect absorber of energy – and stated back to space. However, some of the layer is Tg. We obtained the surface that this idea is useful in the study of terrestrial radiation is trapped by temperature: radiation phenomena. In this respect greenhouse gases and re-radiated to it is worth observing that the Earth is 2 / (1 ) / the Earth, resulting in the warming of = ; = (1) not a blackbody at visible wavelengths its surface – known as the greenhouse − since the absorption efficiency of solar effect. Under a steady state, the 2 − radiation by the Earth is only 1 – a = absorbed shortwave radiation energy where S = 1,365 W/m2 is the average 0.7. However, Earth radiates almost is balanced with the emitted longwave annual solar radiation arriving at the exclusively in the infrared, where the radiation energy. top of the Earth’s atmosphere, Earth’s absorption efficiency is in fact A greenhouse gas is any gas that σ = 5.67 · 10-8 Wm-2K-4 is Stefan- near unity. For example, clouds and has the property of absorbing infrared Boltzmann’s constant, and a = 0.3 is snow reflect visible radiation but absorb radiation (in the wavelength range Earth’s average albedo. The clouds, IR radiation. Therefore, in the infrared 4–50 micrometres) emitted from the aerosols, snow and ice reflect a lot of range the Earth can be considered a Earth’s surface and re-radiating it solar radiation; even water reflects a blackbody – a result of Kirchhoff’s back to the surface. The important small percentage. On average, about law of thermal radiation – and we greenhouse gases are those present 30% of the solar radiation is reflected to approximated the emission heat flux at concentrations sufficiently high outer space. from the Earth as that of a blackbody of to absorb a significant fraction T0 = 255K (-18°C) is the frigid temperature T. of the Earth’s IR radiation. They temperature of a non-absorptive A Correction include H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3 and atmosphere, as was the case in the early chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). By far the history of the Earth, 4 billion years ago. Order is a first step towards the most important greenhouse gas is water In fact, it was even lower during the solar mastery of a subject. In Part III, the vapour because of its abundance and evolution, when solar radiation was only energy balance equations (4)–(5) its extensive IR absorption capacity. around 1,000 W/m2; the temperature at had a misprint, where the factor ½ Although greenhouse gases make up the time was 236K (-37°C). should be replaced by the factor β. only a fraction of all atmospheric gases To reproduce today’s observed global The same misprint appeared in the they have a profound effect on the mean surface temperature of 16°C, the figure describing the simple model of energy budget of the Earth’s system. atmospheric layer must absorb 80% of the greenhouse effect, so that figure is terrestrial radiation (β = 0.8); then redrawn above in its correct form. These Energetic Equilibrium T(β = 0.8) = 289K (16°C). β = 0.8 implies misprints did not influence the surface In Part III, we viewed the atmosphere as that 20% of the terrestrial radiation temperature equation (1). an isothermal layer (see figure above). escapes directly to outer space. In this article we go on to derive the The layer is transparent to shortwave As a result of the greenhouse process, atmospheric temperature directly by solar radiation and absorbs a fraction the Earth’s surface is 34°C warmer invoking Kirchhoff’s law of thermal β of the terrestrial IR radiation. The than it would be without it; for this we radiation. In 1860, Gustav Robert temperature of the Earth’s surface is T must be grateful. However, increasing Kirchhoff (1824–1887) stated that “at and the temperature of the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases thermal equilibrium, the power radiated

GEOExPro March 2020 43 Recent Advances in Technology by an object must be equal to the power absorbed.” This leads to the observation that if an object absorbs 100% of the radiation incident upon it, it must re-radiate 100%. Kirchhoff termed a body that absorbed all incident heat radiation a blackbody. Thus, the Earth is a blackbody in the IR. For the atmosphere, the absorptivity is β since 1- β of the terrestrial radiation, called transmittance, goes to outer space. Following Kirchhoff’s law, as absorptivity is β then the emissivity of the atmosphere must also be β. The atmosphere is often termed a ‘greybody’ since part of the incident terrestrial radiation is being transmitted through the body. When articles describe the atmosphere as ‘grey’, it means that its absorptivity, and equivalently its emissivity, are constant as a function of radiation frequency.

Temperature of the Atmospheric Layer Stefan-Boltzmann’s law (1879, 1884), discussed in Part II (GEO ExPro Vol. 16, No. 3), states that the total radiant heat power emitted from a surface is B = σT4 where T is the surface temperature of the body. This total emissive power is the sum of the radiation emitted over all wavelengths. The law applies only to blackbodies, perfect absorbers with unit absorptivity. From Kirchhoff’s law, a blackbody in thermal equilibrium also has unit emissivity.

Assume that the atmospheric layer of temperature Tg is a greybody with emissivity equal to absorptivity equal to β. Since the layer obviously has both upward- and downward- 4 facing surfaces, each emitting a radiation flux β σTg , its total 4 radiant heat power is Eout = 2 β σTg . The energy balance 4 principle applied to the atmosphere – energy in (Ein = β σT ) equals energy out – yields the ratio of the two temperatures,

1 / 1 / = ( ) = (2) 2 2

− This equation tells us that the atmosphere is always cooler than the ground. Specifically, Tg(β = 0.8) = 243K (–30°C), which is roughly the observed temperature at the height 9 Comparison of an International Standard Atmosphere graph of geometric km of the atmosphere (see figure right). altitude against temperature and pressure with approximate altitudes of This simple greenhouse model assumes a constant various objects. The Kármán line at altitude 100 km represents the border atmospheric temperature. In a later part of this series, we will between the Earth’s atmosphere and outer space. extend the model by viewing the atmosphere as vertically layered. The energy balance equation can then be applied to the elemental slabs of atmosphere and expressions for the temperature achievable in the atmosphere in the absence of temperature of each layer can be derived analytically. The absorption of solar radiation by gas molecules. The figure above result is a decrease of temperature with altitude. When the shows that by the time you reach the top of the troposphere the number of layers gets large, the absorption β in each layer temperature has fallen to a chilly 216K (-57°C). becomes small. Equation (2) is valid for the last layer; the The temperature of the first layer of a layered atmosphere is temperature at the top of atmosphere (TOA) will approach:

1 1 0 = 264K = 9 C 1 / 2 = = 214K = 59°C ≈ − − 2 − In the real atmosphere, there is no discontinuity in the a temperature which is fairly consistent with typical tropopause temperature between the ground and the lowest part of the observations. This modelled temperature is the coldest atmosphere; heat will be transferred by convection.

44 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 45 Industry Issues

Key Principles for Development Comprehending Th e calculators are targeted at decision support and enabling the building of transition pathways to 2050. Th ey Climate Complexities must, therefore, encompass a very broad range of technological and The Global and European Calculators are tools that can be used for behavioural innovation options. In both exploring the future of our climate and working out what can be addition, immediacy of response is also important if the Calculators done about it. are to be relevant to policy makers, particularly when entering JEREMY WOODS and VICTORIA HOARE, Centre for negotiations. Th e user must also Environmental Policy, Imperial College London trust that the impacts calculated from the choices made are a robust representation of the real-world The Global Calculator is an open achieving EU and global temperature outcomes projected into the future. access, publicly available decision targets for 2100. In order to achieve this level of support tool that was developed to A unique aspect of the Calculators robustness and trust the development assist decision makers, particularly is that they are not designed to of the Calculators is guided by the national negotiators, in the lead-up provide optimised outcomes; instead, three primary principles. Th ese are to the Paris Climate Conference that they put the user in control of Openness: the calculators are built was held in December 2015. The exploring a broad range of options, on an Excel-based tool which is fully Global Calculator was based on an varying from minimal adjustment published and available free online; existing UK 2050 Climate Calculator. through to extremely ambitious Collaboration: they have been designed This calculator, developed by the UK climate change mitigation. The by a global team using input from government (DECC, Department for user directly and immediately sees hundreds of experts; and Simplicity, Energy and Climate Change) was the impacts of choices made when with the aim of modelling the world designed to provide policy makers selecting specific technological and in the simplest form possible, whilst with the chance to explore the full behavioural options that span across including all energy sources and uses, range of pathways available for the UK lifestyles, technology and fuels, land emissions and a full range of future to transition to a low carbon economy; and food choices and population scenarios. A fourth principle of co- pathways that were compatible with sectors. design has also been adopted to ensure

The Global Calculator summary interface. The lower half shows the selectable options such as lifestyle, technology, fuel, foods and demographics while the panel above shows the impacts of the selected scenario on energy supply and demand (top left); greenhouse gas emissions per year (centre) and cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature ranges (top right). http://tool.globalcalculator.org

46 GEOExPro March 2020 projects. The unique combination of in-house geological services and a staff boasting extensive offshore and oil company experience provides a competitive edge ito our services. We offer complete services within the disciplines of Petroleum Geochemistry, Biostratigraphy and Petroleum Systems Analysis, and our customers expect high standards of quality in both analysis and reporting. High quality analyses and consulting services to the oil industry

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that the Calculators remain relevant to example pathways, including scenarios four plausible exemplar pathways the users and meet their needs. such as ‘distributed effort’, ‘consumer which would ensure good lifestyles as Forty ‘levers’ enable the user to vary reluctance’ and ‘low action on forests’. well as explore the main uncertainties the way we might live in the future, surrounding technology, fuels and land including the amount and types of Exploring the Global Calculator use. The key points these pathways energy we might use, how we travel The main goal of the Global Calculator show are: and even our diet, including calories was to answer the question: is it consumed, and quantity and type of physically possible to meet our climate 1. It is possible for 10 billion people meat. Each lever can be set to one of four targets and ensure everyone has (the estimated global population by levels of ambition for climate mitigation good living standards by 2050? The 2050) to eat well, travel more and which relate to the full range of what calculator demonstrates that there are live comfortably whilst reducing is possible to achieve for that specific very many different pathways available emissions by 50%. sector, technology and/or behaviour. that allow us to achieve no more than 2. To do this, technology and the fuels The user is also able to select a a 2°C rise in global mean temperatures we use need to be transformed. pre-defined pathway from a list of by 2100, and the team have published CO2 emitted per unit of electricity

The user of the Global Calculator can adjust predicted outcomes by selecting the level of change applied for various behavioural and technical factors. http://tool.globalcalculator.org

GEOExPro March 2020 47 Industry Issues

Graph a globally needs to fall by at least 90% by 2050, while electric or zero-carbon sources for heating homes needs to increase from 5 to 25–50%. 3. Land resources; we need to be smarter about land use. Specifically, forest protection and expansion globally http://tool.globalcalculator.org needs to increase by 5–15% due to the ecosystem service of being a carbon sink.

Perhaps the most controversial and important novel outcome from the Global Calculator is that we can no longer focus exclusively on emissions reduction in the energy sector. Without achieving a significant expansion of carbon sinks on the land and reductions in emissions from the Graph b food sector, and in spite of any significant reductions we might see in energy sector emissions, the Calculator found that meeting even the 2°C, never mind the 1.5°C target, will not be possible. To demonstrate this, the sensitivity of global climate mitigation pathways to the food production http://tool.globalcalculator.org and dietary levers is shown in the graphs to the right.

An Invaluable Open Source Tool With no silver-bullet solution to the climate crisis, the Global Calculator has been a predecessor for more regionally specific 2050 calculators, including the EU 2050 calculator (EUCalc). The EUCalc is an interdisciplinary, collaborative model of intermediate complexity. Unlike Graph c the Global Calculator, which represents a closed system, the EUCalc considers transboundary relationships within the EU and Switzerland and between the EU and the rest of the world. Tools such as the Global Calculator and the EUCalc project provide policy makers, http://tool.globalcalculator.org decision makers and students with in silico models to assess the impacts, trade-offs and applications of the potential choices available in real-time. In a climate where it is becoming even more urgent to make the right decisions now and to act on them as quickly as possible, having an open source tool which makes comprehending the complexities of the climate crisis a little bit easier is invaluable. Global Greenhouse gas emissions trajectory per year (GtCO2e), all using an initial 4°C global emissions pathway (IEA 4DS) (a) with dietary levers set to ‘level 1’ – i.e. minimal You can experiment with the Global mitigation ambition, equivalent to a global average diet in 2050 that is equivalent to the current European average diet; (b) with dietary levers set to ‘level 2’, in which the global Calculator yourself by going to average calorie consumption increases to a level similar to projections by the UN’s Food www.2050calculator.net and Agricultural Organisation (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012, adjusted to exclude food losses) of 2,330 kcal per person per day; and (c) with dietary levers set to ‘level 4’ – an extreme mitigation ambition, equivalent to a global average diet similar to the current Indian diet. 48 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 49 GEO Tourism Oman’s Musandam Peninsula: Geodynamic and Geopolitical Nexus Admire soaring, fj ord-like walls of Mesozoic limestone as you glide through the Strait of Hormuz by dhow, the type of traditional wooden ships that today share this strategic waterway with supertankers and fl otillas of Iranian smugglers’ speedboats. LON ABBOTT and TERRI COOK

On a visit to Dubai, United Arab Arabian) Gulf to the west. Every day From Dubai Glitz to Wild Arabia Emirates (UAE) we, like the city’s 22.5 MMbo – 24% of the world’s global As we barrelled north-east along a tens of thousands of other daily daily production, according to Vortexa motorway from Dubai paralleling tourists, were wowed by the towering energy analytics – pass through the the UAE’s fl at coast, the fi rst hint skyscrapers, glittering shopping malls, adjacent Strait of Hormuz, the narrow of wilderness came after we passed and dancing, choreographed fountain waterway between these gulfs, making through the city of Ras Al Khaimah, and light shows. But we soon yearned it one of the most strategic spots on capital of the north-easternmost of the to experience the wilder side of Arabia. Earth. In addition to being a geopolitical seven emirates that comprise the UAE. Fortunately, this exists a mere 2.5-hour nexus, the Musandam marks the Th e city’s suburbs sprawl eastward to drive north-east, on Oman’s Musandam boundary between the modern Makran the foot of the Musandam mountains, Peninsula. subduction zone on the east and the which rise 1,600m above the coastal Th is isolated fi nger of land, which Zagros continental collision zone to the plain. is little more than 20 km wide at its west, making it a geodynamic nexus Th e Musandam mountains are southern base, separates the Gulf of that has received considerable attention the northernmost extension of the Oman to the east from the Persian (or from tectonicists. Hajar range, which hugs the Arabian

The walls of Khor Ash Sham, which rise 800m directly from the water, consist of Triassic Elphinstone Group overlain by more resistant Musandam Group limestone.

50 GEOExPro March 2020 Lon Abbott and Terri Cook Google Maps

Zagros Zone Strait of Hormuz Makran Zone Arabian Gulf

Gulf of Oman

The Musandam Peninsula, the northernmost point of Oman, separates the Indian Ocean from the Arabian Gulf.

Peninsula’s south-eastern coast from the Musandam to south of Muscat, Oman’s capital. Th e Hajar was raised by thrust faulting that began in the Oligocene and ended by the middle Miocene; the Hagab Th rust, which lies at the foot of the Musandam range, has accommodated about 15 km of east–west shortening, making it the master fault in this region. We crossed the Hagab Th rust at the UAE–Oman border. Rugged, desert mountains rose directly from the water as we wound our way about 6 mm/yr as the Eurasian plate known as the Dibba Zone. The rest around one inlet after another on the overrides the Arabian plate. of the peninsula displays spectacular remainder of the scenic drive to Khasab, The north-eastern Arabian exposures of the most continuous the Musandam’s main town. Khasab Peninsula became a rifted margin section of Mesozoic sedimentary lies just 20 km south of the Strait of in the Permian during the opening rocks on the Arabian Peninsula, Hormuz. of the Neotethys Ocean. The area making the Musandam a playground remained a stable continental for field geologists seeking close Cruising Through the Norway of platform from the Permian through examination of the reservoir rocks Arabia the Early Cretaceous, accumulating that host the region’s giant oil fields. Th e Musandam’s tourist tagline touts it a 4 km-thick section dominated by We got to examine this sequence on as ‘the Norway of Arabia’. Th e validity platform carbonates that host some a dhow cruise of the 16 km-long Khor of that comparison becomes evident of the world’s biggest oil fields. The Ash Sham, the longest of Musandam’s on a day-long dhow cruise through platform’s tectonic serenity was rias. Cretaceous platform carbonates Khor Ash Sham, the largest of the disrupted during the Late Cretaceous, belonging to the Th amama and Wasia many ‘fj ords’ that grace the region. when the famous Samail Ophiolite Groups comprise the mountains Because no glaciers have covered the and the associated deep-marine encircling Khasab and surround the Arabian Peninsula since the Permian, sedimentary rocks of the Hawasina mouth of Khor Ash Sham, which lies these aren’t actually glacial valleys. Complex were thrust south-westward just a few kilometres to the north-east. Rather, they are rias, drowned river over the Arabian passive margin. As our dhow chugged deeper into this valleys that strongly resemble fj ords. Vast expanses of the Hajar mountains ‘fj ord’, the peaks rose higher and higher, Th e Musandam’s rias, which are among consist exclusively of that ophiolite, the tallest soaring 800m above the the most impressive on Earth, have the world’s biggest and best-preserved water. Several major east-dipping thrust formed because the Arabian continental such exposure, although it crops faults cut the tightly folded sedimentary lithosphere is being fl exed down to the out only at the extreme southern layers, so the farther east we ventured north, causing subsidence at a rate of reaches of the Musandam, in what is into the ria, the older the rocks became.

GEOExPro March 2020 51 GEO Tourism

These faults all piggyback atop the London-to-Karachi telegraph line built Oman’s northernmost settlement. Hagab Thrust; together, their Oligocene by the British in 1864. Throughout the voyage we were treated through Early Miocene motion built the The line was abandoned less than to spectacular scenery, with the craggy Musandam mountains. 10 years later, but while it operated coastline and rugged mountains all First we passed from the Cretaceous Telegraph Island was infamous as comprised of Jurassic and Cretaceous carbonates to an overlying thrust a hardship post. The summer heat shelf limestones. As we neared the sheet composed of the 1,500m-thick is fierce and, although the British Strait, we glimpsed several supertankers Jurassic Musandam Group carbonates. maintained extremely close relations and cargo ships through the marine The ria widens to about 3.5 km where with the Sultanate of Oman, some of haze. it crosses onto the next, structurally the local tribes were sufficiently hostile We then passed west of Jazirat Al higher, thrust sheet. That widening that a gunboat had to be available at all Ghanem Island, home to an Omani is likely due to the exposure at sea times. The Oxford English Dictionary naval base perfectly positioned to level of more easily eroded orange, asserts that the idiom ‘go round the monitor the strait’s voluminous ship ferruginous sandstones interbedded bend’ is an old naval term for someone traffic. As we neared the island, we with oolitic limestones that belong to who goes mad. Some claim it derives suddenly heard a cacophonous, high- the Upper Triassic Ghalilah Formation from the long procession of British pitched whine that turned out to be of the Elphinstone Group (Khor Ash naval officers who were slowly driven the vanguard of a flotilla of dozens of Sham used to be called Elphinstone mad by the hardships and isolation of speedboats outfitted with multiple, Inlet). Cliffs of Musandam Group Telegraph Island and were recalled to oversized motors racing in formation limestone tower above the less-resistant India, rounding the bend in the Strait of southward toward Khasab. We reached Elphinstone rocks. Hormuz as they left. for our cameras to record this unusual Dolphins played in the dhow’s bow site, but the speedboats were so fast wave as we headed to Telegraph Island, The Strait of Hormuz they were mere specks in the distance the most famous of several small Being so close to the Strait of Hormuz, by the time we had our lenses trained islands located in this comparatively there was no way we could pass up a on them. Our dhow pilot smiled and wide portion of Khor Ash Sham. We chance to explore it. Although such told us they were Iranian smugglers, anchored just offshore for the first trips are not on the standard tourist who regularly come to Khasab to buy of two sessions of snorkelling and itinerary, we had no trouble hiring a cigarettes and alcohol before returning swimming in the clear water. Telegraph dhow to make the full-day journey to Iran at night. His prophecy was Island was the site of a repeater station, around the Musandam’s northern tip correct: that evening, as we sailed back the ruins of which remain visible, on the from Khasab to the village of Kumzar, to Khasab, the flotilla, whose pilots all stood at the tiller carefully surveying Folded Elphinstone Group rocks, with Musandam Group Limestones forming the mountains behind. the scene around them, raced passed us again. What an unusual, exhilarating, and dangerous career that must be! Lon Abbot and Terri Cook A Glimpse of Old Oman As our dhow rounded the northernmost tip of the Musandam Peninsula we eagerly scanned the horizon for our first glimpse of Iran, expecting to spy Qishn Island, the southernmost anticline in the Zagros fold and thrust belt and the closest Iranian land, 56 km north-west of Kumzar. But the island never emerged from the marine

52 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 53 GEO Tourism

with their famous airports, and a road network ranked salt diapirs sourced among the world’s best. The pace of from Neoproterozoic change is so rapid it is reaching even Lon Abbott and Terri Cook Hormuz salt deposits, this most remote Omani outpost; we which are so found crews hard at work building a voluminous that they road that climbs up and over the rugged produce salt glaciers. Musandam mountains to link the very When we reached different worlds of Khasab and Kumzar. Kumzar, we got a glimpse of how Birth of a Nexus dramatic Oman’s recent While geographers and historians have modernisation has pondered the geographic significance been. Khasab, with its of the Strait of Hormuz, geologists modern port facilities have worked to explain how this and plenty of new narrow pinchpoint formed. Studies buildings, embodies have shown that prior to 5 million The authors stroll through isolated Kumzar. this modernisation. years ago, the Makran and Zagros fold Kumzar, by contrast, was a glimpse of and thrust belts both involved thin- the old Oman, with goats roaming its skinned deformation and were part of haze. Instead, we looked south-east, rough gravel streets and threadbare the same subduction zone. A sharp, across the Gulf of Oman, to glimpse couches perched on makeshift balconies north-trending geophysical boundary mainland Iran. There, a mountain from which residents survey the scene that coincides with the Musandam range with peaks up to 1,900m has during warm Musandam evenings. mountains and extends northward to been built by transpression along the Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said ruled Bandar Abbas, Iran, is thought to be a north-west-trending Zendan fault, the Oman from 1970, when he staged a relict transform fault formed during the structure that transfers plate boundary coup d’état against his father, until opening of the Neotethys. slip from the northward subduction of his recent death on 10 January 2020. Arabian continental lithosphere is Arabian oceanic lithosphere beneath When he ascended to the throne, offset to the north along that transform the Makran region of eastern Iran to the Oman was poor and isolated, but he fault from the Musandam westward. Zagros continent–continent collision used the country’s growing oil revenues That offset destined the continental zone. The imbrication of underthrust to fund an ambitious modernisation lithosphere west of the Musandam to Arabian continental lithosphere has programme that has resulted, among enter the trench first, which it did about raised the Zagros Mountains, complete other things, in gleaming buildings, 5 million years ago, initiating continent– continent collision and slowing the Sunset in Khor Ash Sham, the longest ‘fjord’ convergence rate there, which today in the Musandam peninsula. is 9±2 mm/yr. Oceanic subduction continued east of the Musandam, as it does today at a rate of 19±2 mm/yr. This difference in convergence rate produced the northward step in the Iranian coast that forms the Strait of Hormuz and gave birth to the transpressional Zendan Fault. Perched on the edge of one of the world’s most important seaways, the Musandam offers glimpses into several very different worlds. We witnessed not only a subduction zone transitioning to a collision zone and the commercial realities of modern-day Iran, but also an Oman from a different time, one that will not last much longer. Lastly, we saw for ourselves the incessant ship traffic that makes the region so commercially important and glimpsed the unique geography that makes the Strait of Hormuz a location of almost

Lon Abbott and Terri Cook unparalleled strategic importance.

54 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 55 Reservoir Management Revolutionising the Prediction of Reservoir SINA MOHAJERI and MATTHIAS HARTUNG, Performance Target Energy Solutions Coupling deep learning methods with dynamic reservoir models can result in tremendous time saving and more reliable production forecasts.

Reservoir models are vitally important in the oil and gas subsurface data with machine learning acquired through the industry, for example for estimating remaining oil and gas stream of ‘big data’ coming from production. reserves and providing production forecasts. Managing the operational and fi nancial performance of an E&P asset is A Revolutionary Breakthrough also heavily dependent upon having access to a current and Th is hybrid AI/physics-based system uses a conventional reliable prediction of the dynamic reservoir behaviour. All 3D, 3-phase numerical reservoir simulator coupled with a this information is crucial for creating development and complex deep learning engine. Th e fi rst step is to simply operational plans and providing an auditable cash fl ow to integrate an asset’s optimum dynamic reservoir model into shareholders. It is therefore important to have an up-to-date Target’s platform MEERATM, and its AI-Simulation framework and accurate reservoir model. therein. Th is is done by re-assembling the components of the However, E&P asset operators have an issue, in that their original conventional model, so it meshes into the machine optimum history matched dynamic reservoir models are learning framework. Various parameters are extracted becoming quickly out-of-date and ‘dormant’, due to the length from the original reservoir model, some of which, based on of time it takes to update models. Th is means that frequent a comprehensive correlation analysis, are selected as key model updates are simply unaff ordable. Engineers therefore reservoir elements to be used for machine learning training often resort to using simpler approximation models to and prediction. New production data is then incorporated, forecast production and remaining reserves, as these methods creating a rapidly self-updating live dynamic reservoir model are faster and cheaper to use, although at the price of losing that can be used as a reliable production forecasting and prediction accuracy. scenario-testing tool for operational planning and budgeting. Th is industry dilemma led engineers and scientists of It takes just minutes to train the AI using historic production the international technology and services company Target data, while successive prediction simulations take merely Energy Solutions to develop a new hybrid modelling method milliseconds. that couples conventional simulation with modern machine The lack of time constraints means that it is possible learning, thereby combining engineering knowledge of to optimise a development strategy by running numerous

Graphic describing the high-level workfl ow.

Target Energy Solutions

56 GEOExPro March 2020 400 (a) scenarios in minutes, all based on the experience of the asset’s MEERA Al petroleum engineers. A reservoir model that is constantly 350 Simulator being updated has the major advantage of allowing reliable Observed 300

maps of remaining hydrocarbons to be made, which can then /day) 3 be used to select optimum infill drilling locations. It also 250 helps to provide stable and auditable cash-flow predictions to shareholders. 200 In comparison to purely data-driven processes, which mainly 150 capture near-well behaviours, the system, known as MEERA

Oil Production Rate100 (sm Simulation, considers the whole reservoir’s interconnected behaviour and therefore all inter-well eff ects. Th is makes it ideal 50 for studying the eff ects of processes like well injection, as well as 0 for looking at how major structures like fractures and faults in the 1995 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 reservoir may impact the production rates. 100 (b) MEERA Al 90 Simulator Case Study 1: History Matching Observed 80 Th e benefi ts of the utilisation of a system like this can be seen by /day)

3 70 looking at some completed projects. One example comes from a fi eld that had started producing in 1985 and now has more than 60 80 production wells, with strong aquifer support. In this case 50 study, production data was matched up to 2010 and the period 40

2010–2018 was used for blind test prediction. Each full fi eld 30 simulation run took 7 to 8 hours using commercial simulators, Oil Production Rate (sm 20 but when using MEERA Simulation, each history simulation 10 took 12 minutes, while prediction simulations took 50–70 0 milliseconds, all on the same IT infrastructure. 1996 1998 2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017 Th ese faster results meant the engineers could run 40 multiple simulations in minutes to generate lots of diff erent (c) MEERA Al Simulator 35 potential scenarios, thereby allowing for better optimisation Observed of development strategies. In this case study, the fi eld history 30 proved to be matched better using this system than with the /day) 3 traditional commercial simulators, and in particular the blind 25 test prediction was more accurate than the traditional simulation 20 historical-matching of the same wells. Th e better the history matching quality, the better the understanding of the reservoir, 15 which in turn leads to a better production optimisation and re- 10 development decisions. Oil Production Rate (sm 5

Case Study 2: Lack of Data 0

Target Energy Solutions Energy Target 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2019 2020 Lack of available data is often another issue that asset operators face. Confronted with this problem, a company that had been Case study 1: Comparison of MEERA vs. conventional simulator in using a model built on a reservoir modelling tool suite widely predicting oil production rates per well : (a) example in history match used in the industry decided to test using MEERA Simulation mode only, i.e. prior to 2010; (b) in both history match and prediction mode; and (c) well example in prediction mode only. to build their models. As a result of the machine learning built into the software, the lack of data was not such an issue and the client found that not only was it quicker to build models through Evergreen Model Predictions this system, but that the history matching was more reliable than Field development decision making needs reliable before. However, it must be emphasised that although machine predictive calculations, so a hybrid approach to reservoir learning can fi ll in data gaps, the more data that is available, the modelling, using a fully coupled simulator with an AI/ more accurate the outcome will be. machine learning engine, is an obvious way forward. Th e A key feature seen across both these case studies is that a result benefi ts from the history matching capabilities of tool like this, that includes machine learning, has the ability to artifi cial intelligence combined with the proven forecasting integrate with other industry reservoir modelling applications, capabilities of a conventional reservoir simulator, while allowing it to read and write from these applications using data- preserving local and global physical consistency. exchange industry standards such as RESCUE. In addition, the With their evergreen model predictions and machine tool also possesses a wide range of professional and easy-to-use learning abilities, tools like MEERA Simulation have the data-handling utilities and visualisers, including 3D and 2D potential to revolutionise the way that reservoir models models, a chart visualiser and a histogram visualiser. are built and producing fi elds are developed.

GEOExPro March 2020 57 History of Oil The Land That Oil Forgot: Palestine, 1913–1948 Israeli premier Golda Meir once said, “Moses took us 40 years through the desert in order to bring us to the one spot in the Middle East that has no oil”. We look at the history of exploration in this region. Michael Quentin Morton

While the modern state of Israel has bound for Haifa in Palestine. Having Mike was taken on a tour of the area by some reserves, and looks to the off shore gained a degree in geology from Leeds IPC chief geologist, Norval Baker, who for its gas supplies, it relies on foreign University, Mike was destined to join had been seconded from Standard Oil imports to meet its full demand for oil, the Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC) at of New Jersey, and F. E. Wellings, his a task complicated by its geopolitical the start of a career that would span deputy. Both men were experts in the situation. Th at might have been made the next 25 years and take him across regional geology and highly respected easier if the hunches of the past had the region in search of oil; and it was in for their work in the fi eld. proved correct, since, before the Palestine that he fi rst experienced the Having collected Mike from his declaration of the State of Israel in 1948, trials and tribulations of life as a fi eld lodgings, they headed for Kurnub the territory then known as Palestine geologist. and took in the geology along the seemed full of petroleum promise. At that time, the territory of way. At one point they stopped for a Palestine was controlled by the British group picture, which included another Welcome to Kurnub under a mandate that had been geologist, Sami Nasr. Th e photograph When my father, Mike Morton, fi rst approved by the League of Nations shows Mike wearing a new hat, which headed out for the Middle East in in July 1922. IPC operations were he struggled to keep on his head in a November 1945, he embarked from centred on Kurnub, to the south-east stiff breeze. Later, when they stopped Liverpool on an empty troop ship, of Beersheba. Shortly after arriving, for lunch and examined an exposed

The Israeli desert at sunset.

58 GEOExPro March 2020 © Aliaksandr Mazurkevich/Dreamstime.com© Aliaksandr the forerunner of IPC. On the other was to progress. He was a fluent side were the Americans, including the Arabic speaker, and built a local Standard Oil of New York (Socony), network of contacts which would later a predecessor of Mobil. The Anglo- prove useful in his work for the US Persian Oil Company – today’s British government. Petroleum – had just started pumping One day, while exploring the Judean oil from its Persian oilfield, while Hills, his attention was drawn to the Socony had an extensive distribution Kurnub massif some 50 km to the south; network in the Ottoman Empire, but through his binoculars, he could see lacked sources of crude oil. at its base strange, shining pools that TPC representatives were in looked like oil seepages. His appetite Constantinople, locked in negotiations thus whetted, Yale returned to his office with the Ottoman government for an and wired Socony executives with the oil concession for Mesopotamia (today’s news. They agreed that he should return Iraq). As those talks swayed between to Kurnub and take a closer look. hope and despair, Socony was quietly working on the sidelines to obtain its Enter Lawrence of Arabia own oil concessions. Having established In January 1914, while travelling to an office in Constantinople, the Kurnub, Yale had a curious encounter company obtained exploration options in the desert. His small party had from a group of Jewish businessmen pitched its tents on a patch of meagre in Palestine. By November 1913 its scrubland between low-lying hills to geologists and mining engineers had the east of Beersheba. After a night of explored part of Anatolia, and were storms, Captain Stewart Newcombe carrying out survey work in Palestine, of the British Army – nicknamed which was considered the best prospect ‘Skinface’ because of his sun-burnt Michael Quentin Morten – from earliest times there had been features – and two civilians rode into reports of gas and oil seepages, and their camp on horseback. The youngest lumps of bitumen along the shores of the group was T. E. Lawrence, who of the Dead Sea, known as Lacus would later find fame as Lawrence of Palestine under the British Mandate, 1922–1948. Asphaltitis to the Romans. Arabia. What followed was a game of Spearheading these efforts was bluff, with the Americans pretending cliff above a small lake, a gust of wind William Yale, who was appointed to to be innocent tourists, the British snatched Mike’s hat away and deposited Socony’s office in Constantinople. inquisitive passers-by, and neither it with a ‘plonk in the middle of the He set about drafting a new mining admitting their true designs, although pond’, where it capsized and sank. With law for the Ottoman territories, Yale later noted that Lawrence’s chatter the aid of a shovel, Wellings and Baker which was necessary if his company retrieved and presented the hat to Mike Kurnub camp, December 1945. Left to right: Sami Nasr, F. E. Wellings, Norval Baker and – a miserable, dripping object returned Mike Morton, hanging onto his hat. to a rookie geologist with a sagging sense of self-esteem. Perhaps that was an omen. As they approached the company’s tented camp in the Negev Desert, they might have reflected on the history of the place. For Kurnub, the site of the ancient Nabataean city of Mampsis, holds a singular place in the annals of oil exploration.

Socony Steals a March Back in 1913 much of the Middle East, including Palestine, was under the control of the Ottoman Empire. As the region’s oil potential began to emerge, it became a theatre for competing petroleum interests. On one side were the Europeans, who had combined as the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPC), Morten Quentin Michael

GEOExPro March 2020 59 History of Oil

the Socony agent in Jerusalem to show them the company’s maps of their concessions in Palestine. This prompted Socony to make an official complaint to Washington, which in turn triggered a protest to London. For the Americans, the last straw was the Treaty of San Remo in April 1920. This represented a carve-up of oil interests in the Middle East between the British and French, resulting in the French joining TPC and effectively excluding the Americans from Iraq. At the urging of US Secretary of Commerce, Herbert Hoover, seven US oil companies mounted a challenge to the Europeans, and Socony’s earlier strategy now began to bear fruit. In April 1922, the British dropped their Zoltan Kluger/Israel Government Press Office objections to a Socony survey in Palestine as a A Socony-Vacuum petrol station in Tiberias, 1946. first move towards accepting a wider American participation in the Middle East. was ‘sprinkled with a stream of questions [that] pumped us This was the start of the ‘Open Door’ policy that eventually dry’. admitted American oil interests to the Middle East. In As it happened, Yale was disappointed by Kurnub: the shiny July 1928, five US oil firms, including Socony, joined TPC, pools he had seen from a distance turned out to be water with renamed the Iraq Petroleum Company the following year. iron deposits glistening in the sun. Nevertheless, he concluded from rock samples and borings that oil might be discovered The End of an Era there, though not in commercial quantities. In the minds of Socony thus dropped its claims in Palestine and threw in its lot Socony executives, driven by a desire to gain a foothold in the with IPC, which went on to obtain exploration licences through region, that was good enough reason to proceed. its subsidiary, Petroleum Development (Palestine) Ltd. By the They purchased a 25-year concession and extended time my father arrived at Kurnub, operations had just restarted their interests in Palestine. The company went on to invest after the end of World War II. Once geophysical surveys considerable resources in the Kurnub project, spending some had been carried out, a drilling site was selected at Huleiqat $250,000 (about $6 million today) in buying and shipping Ridge, in the coastal area 13 km north-east of Gaza. However, equipment, building a 30-km road and setting up a camp amid rising concerns about security, work was abandoned in the desert as a prelude to drilling for oil. Meanwhile, the in February 1948 at a depth of about 1,000m without any British authorities looked on with mounting alarm. Lawrence had confirmed Socony’s interest in Kurnub, T. E. Lawrence (middle) walks behind Winston Churchill in a Jerusalem garden, 1921. causing his superiors to redouble their efforts to block the American effort. When World War I intervened, the Ottoman authorities requisitioned Socony’s shipment of trucks and the British diverted the company’s pipes and drilling equipment to Egypt, where they were promptly impounded. The chaotic Kurnub project would probably have failed anyway but, in the longer run, Socony could at least claim to have established a presence in the Middle East. On paper, its credentials were compelling – when the war broke out, the company had obtained concessions for seven plots in Palestine and another 60 were in various stages of negotiation. However, by the end of the conflict, the Ottomans had departed, the area was under British military occupation and the company was back to square one.

An Open-and-Shut Case Great Britain now controlled the most promising petroleum lands and American attempts to access the Middle East soon met the brick wall of imperial Matson Collection, Library of Congress officialdom. In August 1918, the British military forced Prints & Photographs Division

60 GEOExPro March 2020 Matson Collection, Library of Congress Congress Library of Collection, Matson Prints & Photographs Division

ENVOI specialises in upstream acquisition and divestment (A&D), project marketing and portfolio advice The IPC pipeline at Afulah on fire, April 1938. for the international oil and gas industry. significant flows of crude oil being found. The company surveyed the Kurnub area and completed preliminary work for spudding a well there; but it was not to be. For many years, growing tensions between Arabs and Jews had threatened the company’s activities in Palestine. The oil pipeline running between Kirkuk and Haifa was a frequent target, and the oil tanks at the Haifa terminal were sabotaged. A second pipeline was being built and when it reached the River Jordan the engineers ACTIVE PROJECTS saw British customs officials hurriedly evacuating their post on CENTRAL ASIA the opposite bank. That was in the spring of 1948, when the British (Onshore production/exploration) mandate ended, the state of Israel was declared – and the Arab armies invaded. COLOMBIA As a result, IPC operations were shelved. After the Iraqi (Onshore exploration) government banned the company from pumping oil to Haifa, it DENMARK abandoned construction of the new pipeline and never resumed (Offshore exploration) pumping oil through the old one. IPC’s presence was at an end, GABON though by then my father had long since moved on from Kurnub and (Offshore exploration) was to be found riding a camel in the Dhofar, a province in the far-off GHANA land of Oman, in search of the elusive black gold. (Offshore exploration) KAZAKHSTAN Postscript (Onshore appraisal/development) Rumours of vast oil reserves beneath the Negev Desert persisted NAMIBIA and other oil companies entered the arena. The next well, Mazal-1, (Offshore exploration) which was drilled in the Southern Dead Sea area in 1953, was a dry SOUTH AFRICA hole. The following year, oil was discovered at Heletz by deepening (Offshore exploration) the well that IPC had abandoned at Huleiqat Ridge, with a producing zone consisting of sandstones and dolomites within the Cretaceous UK: NORTH SEA Kurnub group. (Offshore exploration) Despite extensive exploration drilling, Israel has remained a UKRAINE modest producer with proved oil reserves (2016) of only 14 MMbo. (Onshore appraisal/development) Nevertheless, the recent discovery of vast gas deposits in the ZIMBABWE Mediterranean has brought the so-called ‘gas revolution’ and made (Onshore exploration) Israel an exporter of hydrocarbons for the first time in its history. VISIT WWW.ENVOI.CO.UK Quentin Morton’s latest book, Empires and Anarchies: The History of Oil in the Middle East, is available from Reaktion Books (UK), FOR MORE INFORMATION The University of Chicago Press (USA) and all good booksellers.

GEOExPro March 2020 61 Reservoir Management Salt Biostratigraphy: An Untapped Source of Data? Salt and evaporites in general are often regarded as both an excellent seal for hydrocarbons and an operational challenge to drill through – but they can also be turned into a valuable source of information. GIL MACHADO, Chronosurveys Lda

Biostratigraphy in O&G commonly used in the industry are In recent decades high-resolution Biostratigraphy is a key discipline micropalaeontology (usually referring biostratigraphy with close-spaced in hydrocarbon exploration and to foraminifera and to a lesser extent sampling has been used as a sequence production as it allows a cost- ostracods and other calcitic fossils), stratigraphic tool, for example for effective, quick and logistically simple palynology (spores/pollen, chitinozoans, interpreting shallowing/deepening way to determine sedimentation dinofl agellates, etc.) and calcareous trends, by typing the characteristic ages and to provide insights into nannofossils. assemblages of each system tract and for sedimentary environments. From Th ese disciplines have been used the identifi cation of maximum fl ooding real-time analyses at the rig site to successfully in the industry for surfaces, hiatuses and sequence long-term regional-scale studies, decades. Th e main reasons for their boundaries. biostratigraphy provides vital success is, fi rstly, the small size of the In operational geology there information to geoscientists in their fossils used in all these techniques are many well-known examples of quest for hydrocarbons. There are now – mandatory when the samples are bio-steering, in which one or more biozonation schemes for most of the commonly cuttings; secondly, their biostratigraphic disciplines are used Phanerozoic with a resolution close to general abundance, although that is to guide horizontal drilling in order or under one million years, depending variable depending on lithology and to keep the borehole within a specifi c on the stratigraphic interval, fossil sedimentation environment; and lastly, bed (usually the reservoir) that has a group and area of the globe. their rapid speciation and extinction characteristic fossil assemblage. Although many fossil groups and rates, resulting in diff erent fossil Palynology in particular allows for biostratigraphic disciplines have assemblages in each stratigraphic very detailed palaeoenvironmental stratigraphic relevance, by far the most interval. interpretations, due to the fact that

Syn-depositional centimetre-scale fold-and-thrust structures of salt and salt-rich shale layers of the stratifi ed member in the Wieliczka salt mine, southern Poland. Gil Machado Gil

62 GEOExPro March 2020 Gil Machado Gil

Bas-relief in the Wieliczka salt mine, southern Poland. The magnificent statues and other artistic wonders were carved by salt miners over the centuries in hundred metre-scale hard salt boulders. it studies organic particles derived In petroleum system analysis, Although typically palynology uses from terrestrial and marine settings. knowing the sedimentation age of the shales and siltstones, many other This is particularly relevant for salt layer is critical in order to properly lithologies are suitable, including characterising potential source rocks, understand basin evolution, timing of evaporites. Along with different salt as the proportions and characteristics fluid flow and trap formation, and the mineralogies, such as halite, sylvite and of the various organic particle types onset of salt movement, among other gypsum, evaporite sequences usually are used as indicators of source rock processes. Similarly, for basin analysis, include impure salts, containing clays types and potential – a valuable add-on forward modelling and structural and organic matter, as well as shales to geochemical analyses. In addition, reconstructions, knowledge of the age and carbonates. Palynology sample sizes the sensitivity of organic matter to of the salt layer is extremely important. vary, but usually 100g or less are more temperature – it becomes darker with The sedimentation age of salt is than sufficient to obtain significant increasing temperature – allows us to commonly estimated based on the age results, thus well samples are suitable. estimate palaeo-peak temperatures of the underlying and overlying strata, There are some examples of this usage attained by the rocks that contained the as seen on seismic and/or from well in salt deposits in the literature, but organic particles. Phytoclasts, the small data. This allows a crude estimation of its use in the oil and gas industry is plant remains that palynologists observe, the age, but is often biased, especially surprisingly scarce. is just another name for vitrinite, the when salt is mobile and the bounding Chronosurveys, a Portuguese- standard material used to determine strata mark the stages of salt movement, based consultancy which specialises palaeo-temperatures in sedimentary rather than its sedimentation age. These in stratigraphy, has refined a method rocks by measuring its reflectance under methods also fail to determine the time of extracting palynomorphs from reflected light microscopes. span of salt deposition. evaporites and interbedded sediments. Contrary to usual palynological Salt: Friend or Foe? What About Salt Biostratigraphy? techniques – which involve aggressive Salt in the form of evaporites plays a There are several ways of dating salt acid attacks, using hydrochloric acid key role in petroleum systems, as it acts deposits. Geochemical methods have for carbonates and hydrofluoric acid for as an effective seal, greatly influences been used recently, but the simplest silicates – organic matter in evaporites thermal fluxes and frequently provides and most effective way is to use is extracted through the dissolution of effective trapping mechanisms. biostratigraphy, specifically palynology. halite and gypsum with hot water, with

GEOExPro March 2020 63 Reservoir Management

a b c

d e f Gil MachadoGil Examples of lithologies with positive palynological results. (a) impure red halite (Souss-Massa mine); (b) impure halite (Loulé mine); (c) green salty shales (Wieliczka mine); (d) granular grey gypsum (Santana quarry); (e) Coaly mudstone (Loulé mine); (f) blackish halite (Wieliczka mine). (Images not to scale). alkaline solutions applied for other, which is in Early Jurassic mobile the beautiful salt-carved statues of more resistant evaporitic minerals. salt. Impure halite, coaly shales and the tourist route, as shown in the Heavy liquid separation greatly helps to dolomitised/silicified gypsum were photo on the previous page, were not improve the quality of the final organic sampled from the mine. tested, although samples were taken residues to be observed. • Souss-Massa salt mine in Morocco from equivalent lithologies. This salt biostratigraphy – an Early Jurassic non-mobile salt, • Zechstein salt in northern Poland, methodology has been tested at five where core samples from red, pinkish, where red and grey shales, impure locations using more than 30 samples. grey and brown impure halite, grey black halite, dolomites and black The rocks tested included early Jurassic, and red shales were obtained. shales were sampled from a mine. Miocene and Permian evaporites and • Wieliczka salt mine in southern • Santana gypsum quarry in central associated sediments, with samples Poland, which comprises Miocene Portugal, where outcrop samples of taken from outcrops, wells and mines. mobile salt. Several types of salt recrystallised and re-precipitated The sampled locations were: and interbedded grey to brown white-pink gypsum and primary • Loulé salt mine in southern Portugal, shales were sampled. Don’t worry, grey gypsum were obtained.

Examples of palynomorphs extracted from evaporites and associated sediments. Images a – e are spores and pollen; (f) is a dinoflagellate cyst; and (g) is phytoclast (vitrinite). (Images not to scale). a b c d Gil MachadoGil

g f e

64 GEOExPro March 2020 Promising Results Not all samples were successful, indicating that some lithologies and specific evaporite basin settings do not favour organic matter preservation. It is particularly difficult to obtain stratigraphically relevant organic particles from dolomite – a fact known to palynologists for a long time. Heavily recrystallised or re- precipitated halite and gypsum are also difficult samples because, while they can contain organic matter, most particles will be unrecognisable. Crystal size, however, does not seem to have a direct impact on organic matter preservation and samples: evaporite crystals from a centimetre down to sub-millimetre-size produce well-preserved assemblages. As with other lithologies, the best results can be obtained from rocks with dark grey and black colours – a well-known indication of the presence of organic matter. Nevertheless, good assemblages were also recovered from pink-red impure halite samples. The success rate using the refined extraction method is comparable to ‘normal’ non-evaporite routine biostratigraphy. Overall, assemblages are dominated by spores and pollen and other terrestrially-derived organic particles. This suggests that the salt was being deposited or formed in a terrestrial environment or that sea water was only sporadically present. Normal sea water conditions – notably salinity – were probably not the norm as dinoflagellates and other marine organisms are either very rare or totally absent in all the studied samples. Naturally, the palaeoenvironmental interpretation will vary from one locality to the next. The thermal maturity of samples varied greatly, from very pale-yellow organic particles in the Wieliczka mine samples to dark brown-black in the northern Poland Zechstein samples. All observed samples also contained phytoclasts, or vitrinite, so the palaeo-peak temperatures the rocks were exposed to can be quantitatively determined.

New Perspectives Salt basins are present in all continents and the vast majority of them contain proven petroleum systems. Salt is often regarded merely as the seal for hydrocarbon traps and a nuisance for drilling operations – but what if it there was a way to obtain valuable information from it? For example, is it possible to know the age of the salt seen on seismic or that of salt that has been drilled through? How long did it take to deposit? What about the stringers within it? Is it possible to calibrate the petroleum systems model with data from within the salt bodies and can the palaeoenvironment where salt formed be understood? Finally, can wellsite geologists know when the base of salt is about to be penetrated? The tests performed show that samples from quite varied lithologies, ages, thermal maturation degrees and salt deformation stages and from non-mobile to allochthonous evaporites, can produce positive results, as long as the correct extraction method is used. Salt basins around the world, from the stratified salt of the Santos Basin in Brazil to the complex diapirs of the Gulf of Mexico, all have potential to provide valuable data for geoscientists. Salt biostratigraphy opens a new highway of information, waiting to be untapped!

GEOExPro March 2020 65 Obituary Ken Glennie − The Passing of a Legend

In late November 2019 the UK lost one of the giants of the oil industry. Professor Ken Glennie was a legend in a number

of fi elds, from the petroleum geology of the North Sea to WhaleyJane turbidites and desert environments, particularly in the Middle East. Ken joined Shell in 1954 − and so began his worldwide travels. Th e principles of petroleum geology had only just began to be formulated in the industry − as he said “we had no idea where oil came from. Oil was where you found it; it just happened” − and he was instrumental in refi ning these principles as he looked for potential source rocks in Europe, depositional environments in the deserts of northern Africa and turbidites − a totally new concept in the 1950s when he fi rst wrote about them − in New Zealand. Ken was an exploration geologist in the days when mapping was done exclusively in the fi eld, where the only tools were a hammer, a compass, a notebook and some paper maps, plus a lot of knowledge stored in the head. As a result, he had a wonderful fund of stories about his exciting adventures, near misses and interesting encounters. In 1984 Ken published his book Introduction to the and which he fi rst visited in the late 1960s. His work on Petroleum Geology of the North Sea, which gave many an deserts culminated in his seminal work Desert Sedimentary aspiring North Sea geologist a great grounding in the area, Environments (1970), followed by Th e Desert of Southeast and he was also heavily involved in the series of conferences Arabia in 2005. His long association with Oman, including on the petroleum geology of north-west Europe known as ‘Th e the publication of Geology of the Oman Mountains in 1995, Barbican Conferences’. resulted by him being known as the ‘Father of Oman’s For many, however, Ken’s name will be forever linked geology’. He kept up his interest in the country, and his visits to deserts, and in particular to Oman, a country he loved there, well into retirement; in fact, at the age of 85 he returned Ken Glennie (left) in the fi eld in O man in 2003. to Oman to star in a documentary on the country’s geological heritage produced by the Geological Society of Oman. Ken Glennie was also an enthusiastic teacher and mentor, both during his career with Shell and after his retirement in 1985. He became an Honorary Professor at the University of Aberdeen in 1995, where he lectured on the petroleum

Simon Armstrong Simon geology of the North Sea and supervised PhD students working on desert and glaciogenic sediments until well into his 80s. He was also a keen member of his local branch of the University of the Th ird Age and was frequently involved with running courses and fi eld trips on local geology around his home outside Aberdeen. Professor Glennie was the recipient of many awards, including the Geological Society of London’s William Smith Medal and the AAPG’s Sidney Powers Memorial Award, but despite his undoubted intelligence, expertise and reputation he was a very modest, unassuming man who is fondly remembered by many as a wonderful teacher and a true inspiration. Rest in peace, Ken Glennie (1926–2019); you will be sadly missed.

Read a profi le of Ken Glennie in GEO ExPro Vol. 6, No. 1. Jane Whaley

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GEOExPro March 2020 67 Exploration Update Brought to you in association with NVentures. Success in Suriname Apache Corporation announced a successful wildcat, Maka Central-1 (Block 58), offshoreSuriname in January, surprising for its proximity to 12 deepwater dry wells in that country, and also from a company more associated with low risk core basins in Egypt, the North Sea and the Permian play. The discovery is set to drive exploration and deal making in Suriname, proving as it does the southward extension of the 8 Bbo (to date) ‘Liza play’ across the border from Guyana into Suriname – the largest new offshore oil play in the world. Maka Central-1 was drilled in 1,400m of water to a TD of 6.3 km, finding 50m light oil and gas condensate in Campanian sands and 73m oil in Upper Cretaceous Santonian clastics. Having reached the initial target, Apache promptly farmed down 50% to Total, who paid $100m cash plus longer term bonuses. The discovery should improve the chances for other players in the basin – Petronas, Cepsa, Kosmos, Chevron and Hess – and perhaps NOC Staatsolie, which is planning to launch a licence round immediately to the south of Block 58 later this year. However, the geology changes quickly at the Lower Cretaceous and Jurassic Demerara platform high to the east, host to many a failed wildcat campaign so far, and all firms will be mapping just how far this Liza-style incursion will go. The discovery may also illustrate the potential of the Cretaceous in the southern MSGBC Basin across the Atlantic.

Charging Ahead in Sharjah Italian giant Eni reported a significant gas condensate discovery,Mahani-1 , in Sharjah recently. Eni, now well associated with successful campaigns in the eastern Mediterranean, has extended its strategic positioning to the Middle East over the last 18 months, presumably in a bid to take a commanding position in the gas production, infrastructure and LNG/GTP industry, as gas starts to take precedence over oil for some export routes. In January Sharjah National Oil Company and Eni announced their 50/50 venture on Area B onshore. Mahani-1 was drilled to 4,562m and reportedly encountered thick gas-bearing pay in the carbonate Thamama Formation (Lower Cretaceous). The well tested 50 MMcfpd gas and condensate. The joint venture is now targeting difficult sub- thrust geological plays in the carbonate platform of the inner thrust zone of the Oman Foldbelt, requiring advanced 3D imaging and processing. Eni now have a Middle Eastern exploration portfolio stretching from Bahrain through the UAE to Oman; expect a very active exploration drilling campaign over the next two years from Eni and their partners in this region.

North by North West A number of drilling campaigns continue to expand on the oil and gas plays on the North West Shelf of Australia. After the excitement around the Dorado oil discovery in late 2018 in the Canning Basin, focus has returned to the deeper water Carnarvon, Browse and Bonaparte Basins, where the majors need to prove up large gas reserves to support the burgeoning LNG export industry. Shell announced in December the successful drilling of Bratwurst-1 in Block AC/ P64. The well is understood to have targeted Lower Jurassic play (Plover) and Upper Triassic (Nome) clastics in the Browse Basin. Although it took 78 days to drill, Shell completed the work within 12 months of the award, testament to their demand for gas, which is now a core component of the supermajor’s new energy mix and low carbon credentials. This campaign reflects a global shift to enriching the gas mix, with Bratwurst and other targets nearby lined up for tie-back to Prelude. This floating LNG project, which started exporting in 2019, is the largest of its kind and very much in the vanguard for the next generation of global offshore gas development projects for the industry.

68 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 69 Q & A The Saudi Aramco IPO: What Does it Mean? The Saudi Arabian economy is almost entirely dependent on oil exports, and diversifying it has become crucial. As part of its plan to reduce this dependence, Saudi Arabia’s leadership recently fl oated part of its giant state oil company, Saudi Aramco, on the Saudi stock exchange, selling shares in what was the biggest IPO (Initial Public Off ering) in history. We talk to Dr Ellen Wald, author of Saudi Inc.: The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit of Profi t and Power, about the importance of this move to the oil and gas industry.

Can you tell us a bit about the background to the IPO? fund. However, the transfer never occurred and no one knows Prince Mohammad announced the idea for the IPO in a where the money from the IPO went. seemingly off hand remark in 2016 during an interview with Th e Economist, but it was delayed for several years because the What does this tell us about the future of the oil industry? company was not in a position to list publicly. Saudi Aramco Th e biggest concern for the future of the oil industry is that fi rst needed to create a new fi scal regime so it could present the new-found infl uence of the Saudi government on Aramco accounting that met a modicum of international standards. will mean decreased capex spending for the company. Saudi Aramco has been the leader in capex over the last few years, Why is it so signifi cant? and a cut in spending could mean that the industry will see Th e Aramco IPO is not immediately signifi cant to the oil market. problems in long-term development. It is an off ering of a very small portion of the company and will not impact the production of oil right now. However, it is a sign of What diff erence will the IPO make to the day-to-day the Saudi government’s increasing involvement in its country’s oil business of Saudi Aramco? strategy. Th is could have long-term impacts. Th e biggest diff erence is that Aramco cannot provide as much in the form of free services and goods to the Saudi Who can buy shares? government and people as it once did. Th e other diff erence is At the moment, shares are mostly limited to Saudi and GCC that the Saudi energy nationals, as well as regional institutions and foreign investment ministry may now be funds and banks. Global investors can best access Aramco shares incentivised to promote by purchasing into a fund that invests in the company. higher revenue for the company, How was the initial sale received by the markets? which generally Th e IPO was made on the Saudi stock exchange, Tadawul, would result from and the company quickly rose above a $2 trillion market cap. encouraging Since then, the stock has fallen signifi cantly. Th ere is very low- higher volume trading and the initial success must be viewed in line production with the infl uence and manipulation of the Saudi government. rates.

How will the money raised through the IPO be used? We don’t know how the money raised through the IPO will be used; however, we do know that Aramco will not see the proceeds of the IPO. Originally, Prince Mohammad wanted to transfer ownership of Aramco to the Saudi sovereign wealth fund before the IPO and give the proceeds to that

Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is the president of Transversal Consulting, an energy and geopolitics advisory fi rm. Dr Wald is the author of Saudi, Inc.: The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit of Profi t and Power, which tells the history of Saudi Arabia through the central fi gure of Aramco. She is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. Her weekly column about oil markets in Investing.com is read by tens of thousands and translated into a half dozen languages. She also writes about energy issues for a general audience in Forbes online and has contributed to the opinion sections of The New York Times, The Hill, Bloomberg and others. Dr Wald is a graduate of Princeton University. She earned her doctorate from Boston University. Wald Ellen

70 GEOExPro March 2020 GEOExPro March 2020 71 FlowBack

The Africa Factor Conversion Factors Crude oil America sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold. An old saying but what 1 m3 = 6.29 barrels about this for a new one: China coughs and the world gets a virus. For the moment 1 barrel = 0.159 m3 at least – certainly at the time of writing – coronavirus looks like it could have a signifi cant impact on global trade and at the same time put more downward 1 tonne = 7.49 barrels pressure on the oil price. OPEC is due to meet and even Russia is prepared to join talks with a view to curtailing production. Natural gas China consumes about 14 MMb of crude a day; getting close to US consumption 1 m3 = 35.3 ft3 in a global market predicted to top 100 MMbopd in 2020. Th is fi gure could dip 1 ft3 = 0.028 m3 sharply if coronavirus keeps China in shutdown mode – and in the meantime fewer container ship voyages, less air travel and a manufacturing hiatus in China might well be seen as good news by the green lobby. Energy But is it? Th e global economy arguably needs growth like never before. Th e 1000 m3 gas = 1 m3 o.e. latest Africa Outlook report by the International Energy Agency shows population 1 tonne NGL = 1.9 m3 o.e. growth in Africa dramatically outstripping other parts of the world. It notes: “Rapid economic and population growth in Africa, particularly in the continent’s Numbers burgeoning cities, will have profound implications for the energy sector, both Million = 1 x 106 regionally and globally.” In other words the developing world needs energy, the 9 cleaner the better, from all sources. Billion = 1 x 10 Africa we know is rich in potential for solar power but development is piecemeal. Trillion = 1 x 1012 In South Africa, for example, Eskom, the government-owned national power utility, gives consumers no incentive to install domestic solar while continuing Supergiant fi eld with regular power outages. While oil will continue to have a role in Africa for the Recoverable reserves > 5 billion foreseeable future – both in production and consumption – natural gas can and barrels (800 million Sm3) of oil should have a bright future as part of the region’s cleaner energy mix, according to Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. equivalents “Africa has a unique opportunity to pursue a much less carbon-intensive development path than many other parts of the world,” notes Dr Birol, adding Giant fi eld that natural gas and greater energy effi ciency have have to to be be part part of of the the Recoverable reserves > 500 million mix, alongside the growth in renewable energy. Poor maintenance over barrels (80 million Sm3) a long period has undoubtedly contributed to what Eskom terms of oil equivalents ‘load shedding’ and it is the consumer who suff ers, not only with power cuts but also higher bills. When China stops coughing Africa will continue to be a prime target across the spectrum of energy Major fi eld investment. Nick Cottam Recoverable reserves > 100 million barrels (16 million Sm3) of oil equivalents

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