GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2020
GWEC.NET 1 2 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Table of Contents
Foreword 5 Market Status 2019 9 Market Outlook 2030 13 Taking Offshore Global 31 Offshore Wind Technologies 80 Conclusion 95 Appendix 98 Abbreviation 99
Global Wind Energy Council Lead Authors Published Sponsored by Rue Belliard 51-53 Joyce Lee, Feng Zhao 5 August 2020 1000 Brussels, Belgium T. +32 490 56 81 39 Contributing Authors Design [email protected] Alastair Dutton, Ben Backwell, Aspire Design, New Delhi www.gwec.net Liming Qiao, Shuxin Lim, Anjali Lathigaralead, Wanliang Liang
GWEC.NET 3 4 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Foreword
Rapid Growth world. Given that more than 70% September 2018, has brought of the planet is covered by sea, together the major industry It’s been quite a journey since I first and wind speeds are considerably players in offshore wind. Key got involved in the offshore wind stronger offshore than onshore, the interventions have been in industry 20 years ago. fundamentals are promising. Taiwan, Vietnam and Japan to assist market development. Offshore wind energy took its first Going Global steps in the 1990s and has been • The World Bank’s ESMAP growing in scale ever since. In Offshore wind is going global, Offshore Wind Development recent years, however, growth has country by country. This piecemeal Program, launched in March Alastair Dutton accelerated. From being 1% of global development is unhelpful for a supply 2019, is focused on expanding Chair of Global Offshore wind installations by capacity in 2009, chain which is seeking to make sound offshore wind to developing Wind Task Force, GWEC countries. The program is offshore wind has grown to over 10% investments and continue to reduce [email protected] in 2019. Measured in investment costs. However, there are a number engaging numerous countries terms that figure is much greater. of initiatives which aim to accelerate which will form part of the offshore wind’s deployment: wider global market in years to Offshore wind is now a mature GWEC’s Global Offshore Wind come. industry, but is only just beginning • Task Force, established in • The Ocean Renewable Energy it’s expansion in earnest around the Action Coalition (OREAC), launched in Dec 2019, targets Themes 1.4 TW of offshore wind by 2050. This industry body is in As we push through 30GW global capacity for offshore wind we see a number of answer to the UN High Level themes. Panel for Sustainable Ocean • In Europe, the market that started it all, the installation rate is accelerating. Economy call for action in Sept • Asia is picking up the pace with China installing more capacity in 2019 than any 2019. other country. This leadership is expected to continue through this decade. These initiatives are in co-operation The message that the price of power from offshore wind has fallen to out-compete • and complement each other for fossil fuels and nuclear, has been understood in many parts of the world. greater effect.
GWEC.NET 5 Future Markets • Floating technology will come • One of those lessons is the UK • Existing markets are hungry of age this decade, tripling the Sector Deal which outlines targets for more, notably UK, Germany, technical potential for offshore and plans for government and Denmark, Netherlands, wind across the world. Initially industry to work together to Belgium and China. As an the key markets are France, dramatically progress the sector example, the UK is targeting 40 Japan, South Korea, Scotland, for the benefit of all. This best GW by 2030, up from 10 GW Norway, Portugal, Spain and US practice is now being adopted in today. Pacific Coast. Once commercial other markets such as Japan and scale projects are established Poland. Emerging markets include • and costs come down many Taiwan, US Atlantic Coast, other locations will come into COVID-19 Japan, South Korea and play, for example South Africa, Vietnam. Not only do these To date offshore wind has been less Canada, Philippines and many markets want low cost impacted than most energy sectors island states. electricity to decarbonize by the pandemic, and stands ready to their footprint but they are Lessons Learned be a material part of a green recovery package. keen to establish their own • Much has been learned from supply chains to benefit their the last 30 years of offshore Conclusion economies. However, inflexible wind deployment in Europe. local content requirements Those lessons are being taken The potential of offshore wind to could frustrate those economic worldwide by developers and achieve the energy transition within hopes by raising the cost consultants. Governments the right time frame and contribute to of electricity and creating are adapting those lessons in post-COVID recovery is increasingly inefficient local suppliers not the context of their particular being understood around the world. able to compete on a regional political and fiscal backdrops. At GWEC, we look forward to working or global market. with you all to realise this potential • New markets are in the preparation phase. Examples include Brazil, Mexico, India, Sri Lanka, Australia and many From being 1% of global wind installations by more. In Europe the existing market will expand into Ireland, capacity in 2009, offshore wind has grown to over Poland, Lithuania and others. 10% in 2019
6 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Offshore Wind – The technology that is changing the world
We tend to seek in every crisis an transformative impact that offshore one of the key pillars to ensuring opportunity, inspired by the dual wind would have on the world’s that they successfully reach their meaning of the word in Chinese. The energy mix. decarbonisation strategies, necessary COVID-19 crisis is not over yet, but to keep global warming under 1.5°C. 30 years ago, there was not a single it is already bringing to centre stage Philippe Kavafyan the offshore wind industry as one MW installed offshore, but with From the pivotal role offshore wind key element of the response to the current market predictions, there will play in delivering the European CEO, MHI Vestas global challenge we are all facing. By could be up to 1,400 GW installed Green Deal and in the UK economic revealing the previously unheralded worldwide over the next 30 years. recovery plan, to rapid growth in the achievements of offshore wind Asia Pacific region, now home to the Offshore wind technology has largest market in China, to continued technology and operations, the focus advanced dramatically over the on economic recovery is creating one progress in US federal and state past few decades. A single offshore waters, offshore wind is beginning to of these moments in history when wind turbine now has more capacity things suddenly accelerate. It is a time witness exponential growth across the than the output of the world’s first world. of positive disruption, because the two offshore wind parks combined. need is clear and the solution readily New technologies such as floating GWEC and its partners are also available and scalable. foundations enable installation in working tirelessly to ensure that the A pioneering industry deeper waters, paving the way next round of emerging markets such for another range of geographical as those in Latin America and India, The offshore wind pioneers of the opportunities for offshore wind. capitalise on the lessons learned from early 90’s might have known that they the three decades of experience. were creating something special Exponential growth ahead This will increase our chances as by unlocking the power of wind at 2020 was always destined to be an industry of reaching the global sea, but not even the most optimistic a big year for our industry. Many potential of offshore wind by 2050. at the time could foresee the truly nations now see offshore wind as
GWEC.NET 7 Lessons learned and draw upon the cheapest, highest conditions for construction and role to play guiding the world through quality suppliers of components from service. these exceptional circumstances, What learnings can be shared as an the region. setting a practical course to reach increasing number of countries look Having risen to the initial challenge, global decarbonisation targets. to deliver many more projects further There is also an ever-increasing gap the industry now has the opportunity out to sea whilst reaping the industrial between the “raw” MWs that many to direct funds set aside for green This GWEC report provides a benefits of offshore wind? nations are targeting ahead of 2030- recovery stimulus packages to snapshot of the industry today, and 2050 renewable energy plans and the accelerate the investments in the the potential we have to realise The gradual, organic build up in the “qualified” MWs that can actually be necessary infrastructure that will help together in partnership to ensure the European supply chain has seen the installed by 2030-2050. As the size unleash the potential of the oceans future of our planet. rejuvenation of coastal communities, and complexity of projects increase, and the economic potential of many the growth of second and third tier greater emphasis must be placed countries. suppliers across the continent, and on reducing inefficiencies during skill development pathways to help the permitting process to ensure Investment in grids, ports, Power-to- transition workforces from sunsetting projects can be delivered on time Green Hydrogen projects all have to sunrising industries. and reach these targets. The industry the potential to rapidly increase has clear vision on the stakeholders deployment of offshore winds. If the With such valuable social and and challenges that typically cause delays in the permitting process can economic value and the continual delays, and these challenges must also be minimised through renewed reduction in cost of energy, it is easy be addressed and resolved by political willpower, then offshore wind to see why offshore wind is becoming collaboration with the industry and is ready to deliver on its potential. so appealing. The success seen in policymakers before MW targets can Europe has created expectations Rising to the challenge be considered qualified and offshore around the globe that offshore wind wind can grow as a sector. John F Kennedy once said, “these will generate economic value as well are extraordinary times. And we face as deliver a low cost of energy to The COVID-19 effect an extraordinary challenge. Our power sustainable, green economies, strength as well as our convictions regionally. Without a doubt, COVID-19 has changed the world forever. When have imposed upon this nation the The industry has demonstrated that the pandemic first hit, the industry’s role of leader”, and while he may the supply chain will come with focus was on ensuring continuity of have originally been speaking volume organically. As turbines business in both the supply chain about freedom, it is an apt quote for become even larger and more and in operating offshore wind parks. the offshore industry to adopt. The powerful, offshore logistics dictate The industry demonstrated strong green energy transition needs our that supply chains have to be regional resilience, notably in the challenging leadership, we have a very important
8 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 MARKET STATUS 2019
GWEC.NET 9 Annual installations • In The Netherlands, Vattenfall won the second Dutch zero-subsidy With 6.1 GW new capacity added, offshore wind tender, totalling 2019 was the best year in history for 760 MW, in July 2019 (repeating the global offshore wind industry. the zero-priced bids of the first • China achieved a new record in round in 2018 and meaning that 2019, installing 2.4 GW offshore the project will only receive the wind in a single year. The United wholesale price of electricity and Kingdom came in second place, no further support/payment). although it also had record Those results prove how offshore installations of 1.8 GW in 2019. costs have come down through With 1.1 GW of new installations, technology innovation and Germany took the third place, economies of scale. followed by Denmark and Belgium. • The US offshore sector made great • The results from the UK CfD progress last year. The country’s Allocation Round 3 announced in total offshore wind procurement September 2019 showed record targets increased from 9.1 GW low strike prices ranging from in 2018 to 25.4 GW in 2019 £39 to £41/MWh (in 2012 prices), after New York and New Jersey which is about 30% lower than the upgraded their offshore targets, auction held in 2017. In total, more and more states released their than 5.4 GW offshore wind projects offshore wind targets. Six states were awarded. had selected more than 6 GW of offshore wind through state-issued solicitations as of December
With 6.1 GW of new capacity added, 2019 was the best year in history for the global offshore wind industry.
10 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 2019 and more solicitations are Cumulative installations • However, the activity level in Asia expected to be issued in New keeps increasing with China York and New Jersey in 2020. The The global offshore market grew taking the lead followed by Taiwan, industry is now moving a phase of on average by 24% each year since Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea. 2013, bringing the total installations to project construction planning and North America has only 30 MW 29.1 GW, which accounted for 5% of • execution as more than 15 offshore offshore wind in operation in the total global wind capacity as the end projects are expected to be built US as of 2019 but deployment will of 2019. by 2026. accelerate in the coming years. Europe remains the largest • Development in the Asian offshore • The top five offshore wind market offshore market as the end of 2019, • markets was also positive in in total installations are: The UK, making up 75% of total global 2019 – Taiwan connected its first Germany, China, Denmark and offshore wind installation. utility-scale offshore project to Belgium. the grid. On top of the 5.6 GW
offshore wind to be installed by - 0.1 Rest of world China Europe 2025, a further 10 GW is planned GW, affshare 6.1 to be built offshore from the island 0.1 between 2026 and 2035. Positive CAGR* -0.03 2.4 4.5 4.3 steps were also made in Japan last +24% year to accelerate offshore wind 3.4 1.2 0.4 1.6 development with its first offshore 0.1 wind auction launched in summer 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.1 1.7 1.7 3.2 3.6 2020. 0.1 0.2 1.3 3.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.6 1.6 Globally, offshore wind installations 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.6 • 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 have grown from 3.4 GW in 2015 to 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6.1 GW 2019, bringing its market share in global new installations Offshore share of new 2-3% 4% 8% 10% from 5% to 10% in just five years. installations 1% * Compound Annual Growth Rate Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, March 2020
GWEC.NET 11 FLOATING WIND • 11.4 MW floating wind installed in 2019, of which 8.4 MW is from Portugal and 3 MW from Japan; • As of the 2019, a total of 65.7 MW floating wind was installed global, of which 32 MW is located in the UK, 19 MW in Japan, 10.4 MW in Portugal, 2.3MW in Norway and 2 MW in France
New offshore wind Total offshore wind Total offshore wind New offshore wind installations by region installations by country installations by country installations by region 0.1% 2% 1% 4% 6% 5% 6% 24.7% 6% 33% 39% 41% 18% 59% 24% …
75.2% 29% 26%
China The UK Germany Denmark The UK Germany China Denmark Europe APAC Europe APAC North America Belgium Taiwan Portugal Japan Belgium Netherlands Sweden Taiwan Vietnam South Korea Others
12 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 MARKET OUTLOOK 2030
GWEC.NET 13 Offshore Market Outlook to 2030
The global offshore wind market overall growth of the global wind offshore wind tenders worldwide. For outlook to 2030 has grown more market, and expects offshore wind to the medium-term market outlook, promising over the past year as contribute more than 20 percent of aside from existing project pipelines, governments raise their ambition total wind installations by 2025. a top-down approach has also been levels and new countries join the used, which takes into account market. With an average annual As the world’s largest regional existing policy, support schemes and growth rate of 18.6 percent until 2024 offshore wind market, Europe is national level offshore wind targets. and 8.2 per cent up to the end of the expected to maintain steady growth, decade, new annual installations are but new installations outside Europe, expected to sail past the milestones of predominantly from Asia and North 20 GW in 2025 and 30 GW in 2030. America, are likely to surpass Europe in 2020 for the first time and Global offshore wind growth to 2030
GWEC Market Intelligence expects continue exceeding volume in Europe New installations Other China Europe that over 205 GW of new offshore through 2030. In the near-term GW, offshore North America Asia ex China wind capacity will be added over the (2020-2024), the majority of growth CAGR** 1 1 next decade. Three-quarters of this outside of Europe will primarily come +8.2% 31.9 new volume will be installed in the from China and Taiwan, with the 31.0 2.0 3.0 3.4 latter half (2025-2030), as projects contribution from the US becoming 26.2 25.5 6.0 currently in planning get connected to sizeable from 2024 when the first CAGR* 6.0 3.0 the grid. utility-scale offshore project comes +18.6% 21.5 21.5 3.0 online. 4.2 3.2 5.5 5.5 6.9 7.0 Offshore wind already accounted 1.1 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.7 0.3 13.0 for 10 percent of global new wind Our near-term offshore wind market 0.3 2.0 1.8 3.2 9.7 9.9 1.5 2.9 3.7 power installations in 2019. Buoyed outlook was built using a bottom-up 9.1 14.1 14.5 6.1 6.6 3.5 3.5 11.4 by expansion into new markets and approach and is based on GWEC 5.0 3.0 10.1 11.0 2.4 4.0 8.7 5.5 acceleration of the global energy Market Intelligence’s global offshore 4.3 4.6 3.6 2.3 2.7 transition, GWEC Market Intelligence wind project database, which covers 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e foresees offshore wind playing an projects currently under construction, * CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate increasingly important role in the global auction results and announced Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
14 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Looking at potential growth in the Global offshore wind growth to 2030 in Europe
decade ahead, GWEC Market New installations Rest of Europe Denmark Netherlands UK Europe Intelligence forecasts that the GW, offshore Belgium France Germany European offshore wind market will CAGR* Europe is the birthplace of the +10.9% 0.5 continue to grow strongly, as new 14.5 offshore wind industry. Since the 14.1 offshore wind projects are both world’s first offshore wind turbine 0.5 0.5 4.0 11.4 3.6 cheaper to build and operate than CAGR* 11.0 was installed in Denmark in 1991, +25.2% 0.0 10.1 new nuclear power and gas-fired 0.3 2.4 1.8 Europe has been taking the lead 0.5 8.7 2.0 2.0 power plants, making it a core energy 0.7 0.0 2.4 1.0 1.0 in both offshore wind installations 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 source to help Europe to meet its 0.4 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 5.5 2.0 2.0 and turbine technology innovation. 0.0 0.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 NDCs and achieve carbon-neutrality 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.6 0.9 After three decades of research and 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.2 goals by 2050. 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.5 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 development in Europe, offshore 2.3 3.0 1.8 1.1 2.3 0.5 1.5 0.9 wind has established itself as a cost- The European Commission estimates 0.0 competitive power generation of that total offshore wind installations 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e choice for governments and a mature * CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate between 240 and 450 GW will be Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020 industry. Through collaboration needed by 2050, making offshore among European markets and wind a crucial pillar in Europe’s EuropeanEuropea executedn execute offshored offsho rtenders/e tender sauctions/ auction 2015-19s 2015-19 experienced stakeholders, a robust power mix. AwardedAwarded capacity capacity (G(GW),W), a vaverageerage win winningning bid (EU bidR /(EUR/ MWh )*MWh)* offshore wind supply chain has been 154 built in countries neighbouring the In GWEC Market Intelligence’s pre- 146 5500 160 COVID market outlook, 2020 and 5500 North Sea and Baltic Sea. In the past 5000 2021 were expected to be relatively 140 decade, the European offshore wind 4500 103 market enjoyed double-digit annual quiet years, with new installations 4000 120 growth (11 percent), making it the below 3 GW in Europe. 3500 81 100 3000 73 world’s largest regional market as of 63 62 80 2500 55 50 the end of 2019. “zero 47 44 46 2000 44 bid” 60 2336 1500 1610 40 1490 860 1000 714 752 600 732 740 448 600 20 New installations are likely to exceed 20 500 400 350 0 0 t
k e e e t t d 4 2 2 D r e r 3 n s ak R - i
e l l F e l er s s C f F 3 + 1 + 1 + - 2nd - 2nd h o s -1 s - 1 s GW in 2026 and then potentially reach 15 R 1 s s - 3rd t R-2 n E e g Re v an-d s i or s E l -Near U K U K r Dun k or s U K U K G U K D 17/1 8 G Ku s D 22/2 3 D 18/1 9 D 21/2 2 DK-Ho r - K D K C f C f C f C f NL - B NL- B GW by 2030 D K NL -Ho l •Tenders above 100MW capacity and no innovation auctions, tenders in order of execution from 2015 to end of 2019 Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, GWEC Auction Database May 2020
GWEC.NET 15 This growth forecast is unchanged projects, is underway with Invitation it establishes a long-term offshore in our post-COVID scenario. After a to Tender (ITT) Stage 1 submission target of 40 GW by 2040. The slow start in the beginning of 2020s, period concluded. In early June, amendment has been welcomed by however, the European offshore Crown Estate Scotland also launched the industry, as it brings in volume, market is likely to bounce back in the ScotWind seabed leasing round scale, jobs and long-term visibility. 2022 when all the UK’s CfD 2 projects for offshore wind projects, followed will come online. New installations in by the UK Committee on Climate France Europe are likely to reach 8.7 GW in Change (CCC)’s recommendation to The Multiannual Energy Programme 2025. the government in June to deliver at (Programmation pluriannuelle de least 40 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Taking into account recently l’énergie (PPE)) that came into force increased or proposed offshore wind Germany in April 2020 shows that France will targets from established markets and tender up to 8.75 GW of offshore wind activities in new European markets, The German wind industry has capacity from 2020 to 2028. The PPE such as those around the Black Sea, been struggling with the federal also increases the intended operating GWEC Market Intelligence expects government’s conservative offshore offshore wind capacity to between 5.2 more offshore wind to be built in wind target. The good news is that GW and 6.2 GW by 2028. The 2023 the second half of the decade. New Germany’s Federal Cabinet has operating capacity target is 2.4 GW. installations are likely to exceed 20 approved the amendment to the From 2024 onward, France will tender GW in 2026 and then potentially Offshore Wind Act (WindSeeG) in 1 GW per year of either fixed-bottom reach 15 GW by 2030. June 2020. Not only does the bill or floating wind capacity, depending increase the 2030 offshore wind on the cost. The United Kingdom target from 15 GW to 20 GW, but Denmark As the world’s largest offshore wind 2 2 2 market, the UK continues to tell a GW, offshore In June 2020, the Danish parliament successful story through its 2019 approved a new Climate Action Plan which calls for the development of Sector Deal, reached between the Rest of government and industry, through its 20% Europe two “energy islands,” one in the North 34% Belgium new government target of 40 percent Sea and one in the Baltic Sea (with a Denmark of UK power from offshore wind by 3% combined capacity of 5 GW planned France by 2030) and also approves the 2030, and through the 30 percent 9% Netherlands cost reduction achieved from CfD development and construction of one Germany Rounds 2 to 3. CfD Round 4, which more wind farm in the Baltic Sea with 9% UK seeks to award up to 8.5 GW of 14% capacity of up to 1 GW. 11%
16 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Asia
Japan built Asia’s first offshore wind will continue to decline when offshore project with two units of V47-660kW projects expand to new markets with turbines in 2003. However, the Asian high resource potential, like India and offshore market was not ready to the Philippines, towards the end of the take off in earnest until 2014, when decade. the Chinese central government The average annual growth rate released the National Offshore Wind in Asia will stay at the level of Development Plan (2014-2016). In 1.7 percent in the first half of this 2017, China passed the 1 GW annual decade, but is likely to increase to installation milestone; one year later, 8.4 percent in the second half. The it surpassed the UK as the world’s top top five markets in this region in new market in new installations.
GWEC Market Intelligence’s latest Global offshore wind growth to 2030 in Asia market outlook predicts that China will continue to dominate the Asian New installations, Asia Rest of Asia Vietnam S. Korea China GW, affshore offshore wind market in the first India Taiwan Japan CAGR* 12.9 13.0 hare of hinese half of this decade, with more than offshore ar et +8.4% 0.7 0.8 70 percent market share. Taiwan is CAGR* 1.0 1.0 +1.7% 10.1 10.2 0.7 0.7 expected to be the largest offshore 1.0 1.0 8.7 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 8.2 0.6 0.7 market in Asia after China in new 0.6 2.0 2.0 7.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 installations in the same period. 0.4 0.1 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 4.8 0.1 5.0 0.2 1.0 4.3 4.6 0.5 However, the scales will tip from 2025, 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 when more utility-scale offshore wind 2.5 0.4 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 0.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 projects get connected in Japan, 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 South Korea and Vietnam. GWEC 2.4 Market Intelligence forecasts that 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e China’s market share in this region 7 7 77 1 7 is likely to drop to 58% in 2025 and * CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
GWEC.NET 17 installations in this decade will be GWEC Market Intelligence predicts in total installations by 2021, if not China (52 GW), Taiwan (10.5 GW), that Europe will remain the largest 2020. However, new installations will South Korea (7.9 GW), Japan (7.4 regional offshore wind market in decline dramatically from 2022, when GW) and Vietnam (5.2 GW). terms of total installations by 2025 and the central government will terminate 2030. Nevertheless, Asia’s share of the subsidy for offshore wind. Annual Excluding China, the Asian offshore the global market is expected to grow offshore wind growth in China in wind market is still at the early stage from 24 percent in 2019 to 42 percent the future will depend on whether of development. Each market is in 2025, where it is likely to remain subsidies provided by provincial facing the challenge of developing a until the end of the decade. governments will be available and local supply chain and the necessary whether offshore wind industry can competencies and capabilities to China reach grid parity before 2025. build an offshore wind industry. China was the world’s No. 3 offshore Taiwan market in total installations as of Other Asia China the end of 2019 (after the UK and With 128 MW offshore wind capacity Percentage and GW, offshore Other Europe Germany). At present, project online at present, Taiwan is positioned 29 GW 99 GW 235 GW developers and investors are rushing to become the second-largest 1% to commission their projects before offshore wind market in this region. It 11% 16% 23% the end of the 2021 deadline in order will connect 5.5 GW of new offshore 31% 25% to capitalise on the 0.85RMB/kWh wind by 2025 and another 10 GW FiT for offshore wind. Considering will be tendered by the government 7% 12% extraordinary volume of new capacity through the Round 3 auctions for (4-5 GW/year) will be built in 2020 commissioning by 2035, providing 75% and 2021, GWEC Market Intelligence the long-term visibility needed 51% 48% expects China will surpass the UK as to generate a local offshore wind the world’s largest offshore market industry and supply chain.
2019 2025e 2030e
The early experience from Taiwan China will continue to dominate the Asian offshore has proven that collaboration with wind market in the first half of this decade with European partners across markets in this region is essential for success. more than 70 per cent market share
18 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 South Korea Vietnam
Although the “green growth” strategy More than 500 MW offshore wind announced almost a decade ago projects in the pipeline were has failed to boost its offshore wind expected to come online before the development, the Democratic Party current FiT deadline of November led by President Moon Jae-in seems 2021. Taking into account the recent intent on reviving the green agenda. announcement of a FiT extension To reach the “Renewable Energy to the end of 2023 followed by an 3020” target of 20 percent renewables auction system from 2024, which in the power mix by 2030, South was officially sanctioned by the Korea is targeting 12 GW of new Prime Minister in June, GWEC offshore wind capacity to be built by Market Intelligence predicts a total the end of this decade. of 5.2 GW offshore wind capacity to be built between 2020 and 2030. Japan
The development of Japan’s offshore wind sector has been stymied by a lack of ambitious targets and ProjectsProjects under under construction construction 2020* 2020* MW, offshore (Status as Q1 2020) a cumbersome permitting and MW, offshore (status as Q1 2020) licensing framework, but there has 15,132 been a growth in momentum at 750 both the policymaking and industry level since 2017. In July 2020, the government nominated four offshore wind zones and launched the first offshore wind auction for a floating offshore wind farm offshore from Goto City. GWEC Market Intelligence 130 expects he Japanese offshore wind 60 market to take off from the middle of China Taiwan S.Korea Vietnam this decade. * Construction defined as beginning of foundation work Source: GWEC Market intelligence, May 2020
GWEC.NET 19 North America North America installed its first Based on GWEC Market test offshore wind turbine, a 1/8th Intelligence’s global offshore wind geometric scale of a 6 MW turbine, project pipeline, no utility-scale off the coast of Maine in 2013, and offshore wind project will come connected its first commercial wind online in North America before 2024. project to the grid in Rhode Island In total, 23 GW of offshore wind is in December 2016. As of the end predicted to be built in this region in of 2019, 30 MW of offshore wind this decade, of which less than 1 GW capacity was spinning in North is expected to come from Canada, America, making it the only region despite its high technical resource with commercial offshore wind potential. outside of Europe and Asia.
Global offshore wind growth to 2030 in North America