Better Wear Red? the Influence of the Color of Sportswear on the Outcome
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Submitted by Matthias Nikolaus Hilgarth, BSc Submitted at Department of Economics Supervisor Dr. Mario Lackner October 2020 Better wear red? The influence of the color of sportswear on the outcome of Olympic sport competitions Master Thesis to obtain the academic degree of Master of Science in the Master’s Program Economics JOHANNES KEPLER UNIVERSITY LINZ Altenbergerstraße 69 4040 Linz, Österreich www.jku.at DVR 0093696 Sworn Declaration I, Matthias Nikolaus Hilgarth, hereby declare under oath that the thesis submitted is my own unaided work, that I have not used sources other than the ones indicated, and that all direct and indirect sources are acknowledged as references. This printed thesis is identical with the electronic version submitted. Linz, Place and Date Matthias Nikolaus Hilgarth 2 "All I am or can be I owe to my angel mother." Abraham Lincoln For Mom 3 Acknowledgments First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Dr. Mario Lackner for providing me with the topic of this Master’s thesis, for the trust in me to work independently, the patience to give me time and support whenever I needed it. Moreover, I am very grateful to Alexander Ahammer, PhD for his assistance in the whole process. Additionally I would like to thank Univ.-Prof. Dr. Martin Halla for his valuable suggestions. Thanks the whole Department of Economics for providing such a an enjoyable environment for learning and working. Your efforts to make students part of the department are truly appreciated. A special thanks to my partner Martina, for your kindness and encouragement. Your love protected me in my darkest time. To my friends Andreas, Daniela, Petra, Andreas, Gernot, Tobias, Wolfgang, Anna, Isabel, Martina, Monika, Julia, Peter, Rene and Sophie, thank you for the way you enriched my time and being there whenever I needed a friend. I could not have done it without you. With boundless love and appreciation, I would like to thank my family. The unconditional support of my mother Gertrude, my father Klaus and my sister Sophie who allow me to chase my dreams. No words could ever describe my gratitude for your trust and eternal love. 4 Contents Abstract 9 1 Introduction 10 2 Theory and Related Literature 13 2.1 The Economics of Contests and Competitions . 13 2.2 Replication Crisis in Economics . 19 3 Influence on Competition Outcome 25 3.1 First Mover Advantage . 25 3.2 Home Field Advantage . 26 3.3 Incentive Distribution . 27 3.4 Heterogeneity of the Contestants . 28 3.5 Color Influences on Perception and Performance . 29 4 Institutional Setting 34 4.1 Boxing . 34 4.2 Taekwondo . 37 4.3 Wrestling . 39 5 Data 41 5.1 Descriptive Statistics . 42 5.2 Replication of Hill and Barton (2005a) . 45 5.2.1 Win percentage per Sport . 45 5.2.2 Win percentage per Degree of Asymmetry . 49 5.2.3 Criticism of Hill and Barton (2005a) . 51 6 Methods and Empirical Analysis 54 6.1 General Analysis . 55 6.2 Effects on Sex . 57 6.3 Effects on Random . 57 6.4 Cultural Effects . 59 6.5 Expand Hill and Barton (2005a) . 62 7 Heterogeneity on Sports 64 7.1 Boxing Results . 64 7.2 Taekwondo Results . 65 7.3 Wrestling Results . 67 8 Conclusion 69 5 9 Literature 71 A Appendix - Data per Sport 80 A.1 Boxing Data . 80 A.2 Taekwondo Data . 82 A.3 Wrestling Data . 83 B Robustness Checks for 6.1 General Analysis 85 C Results and Robustness checks for 6.4 Cultural Effects 87 C.1 Africa . 88 C.2 Americas . 91 C.3 Asia . 94 C.4 Europe . 100 C.5 Oceania . 105 D Robustness Checks for 7 Heterogeneity on Sports 107 6 List of Figures 4.1 Sample image of men boxing at the Olympics 2008 . 36 4.2 Sample image of men boxing at the Olympics 2016 . 36 4.3 Sample image of women boxing at the Olympics 2016 . 37 4.4 Sample image of a taekwondo bout in the Olympics 2016 . 38 4.5 Sample image of wrestling at the Olympics 2012 . 40 5.1 Win percentage per color, Replication of Hill and Barton (2005a) . 46 5.2 Win percentage per color, Replication of Hill and Barton (2005a) . 47 5.3 Win percentage per degree of asymmetry . 49 5.4 Same as 5.3, data: Hill and Barton (2005a) . 50 5.5 Win percentage per degree of asymmetry, from Hill and Barton (2005a, p. 293) 50 6.1 Visual help to understand split in non-random, random first and random later 58 6.2 Win percentage per color and sport, Replication of Hill and Barton (2005a) . 63 7 List of Tables 5.1 Summary of selected variables in the data . 42 5.2 Distribution of bouts by sex and sports in the data . 43 5.3 Distribution of bouts by seeding and sports in the data . 43 5.4 Distribution of bouts by Olympics and sports in the data . 44 5.5 Tables of χ2-results per sport in 2004 Olympics, only male competitors . 45 5.6 Tables of χ2-results per sport in 2004 Olympics, only female competitors . 47 5.7 Sign-test of rounds, only male competitors in the 2004 Olympics . 48 5.8 Sign-test of weight classes, only male competitors in the 2004 Olympics . 48 5.9 Tables of χ2-results per degree of asymmetry in 2004 Olympics, only male competitors . 51 6.1 Effects of the color of the sportswear on winning the bout . 56 6.2 Effects of the color of the sportswear on winning - sex splits . 57 6.3 Effects of the color of the sportswear on winning - random splits . 59 6.4 Effects of the color of the sportswear on winning - continent splits . 61 6.5 Tables of χ2-results per sport in all tournaments without seeding, only male competitors . 63 7.1 Boxing - points per round and points per bout . 65 7.2 Taekwondo - points per round and points per bout . 66 7.3 Taekwondo - Attack and Penalty Points . 67 7.4 Wrestling - points per round and points per bout . 68 8 Abstract The existence of biological and psychological effects of colors has been well documented in animals and humans. Based on these findings, various researchers postulated that the color of the sportswear does affect the outcome of sporting competitions. If this is true, this would have enormous consequences for tournaments. The aim of this thesis was to expand previous research to test this claim. In order to do so, data for three different sports (boxing, taekwondo and wrestling) was gathered for the five Olympic tournaments between 2000 and 2016. This thesis does not find any evidence supporting the claim that red sportswear is a competitive advantage in competitions. The results are consistent over different sports, sexes and geographical distinctions. While this conclusion is reassuring for the design of existing tournaments, it also highlights the the need for replications in the scientific process. 9 Chapter 1 Introduction Popular media often highlight the color red as a color with super powers. While most of the reporting on scientific results leaves a lot to be desired, these reports are based on genuine research regarding effects of color. An example of this is the red dress effect, which states that men perceive women dressed in red as more attractive (Strain and Daniel, 27.02.2012). Another claim often brought forward is that red enhances the performance. Hill and Barton (2005a) stated that there is a significant effect of the color red on the outcome of competi- tions for boxing, taekwondo and wrestling. People use such scientific evidence as foundation for their decisions. An example of this would be Jürgen Klinsmann, former coach of the German national football team, who wanted to change the primary color of the team to red, as red allegedly contributes to positive thinking and a more aggressive play style (Zelustek and Niklaus, 01.02.2006). What are the implications for sports tournaments? Should we exclude the color red from sports tournaments, as it gives an unwanted advantage? From the literature, we know there are several other factors that can influence the outcome of contests. The most well-known of these are the home-field advantage, and notable differences in the effort dependent on the incentive distribution. Therefore, the color of the sportswear influencing the outcome would not be surprising. A biased tournament design would have large effects on the sports tournaments, like the Olympics, and on betting markets. Sport is not the only area of importance. Many problems and situations relevant for economists can be described by tournaments. Tournaments can be seen as competitions 10 where the relative performance at a given stage decides the winner. Contestants have to chose their effort dependent on the prizes. Notable fields in economics which can be de- scribed with the help of tournament theory are e.g. the labor market, sales or research and innovation tournaments. The question arises, if there is a genuine effect of the color someone is wearing, do we also have to change the approach there? Before talking about implications, the reliability of the results which indicate a competi- tive advantage of the color red has to be questioned. Various failed attempts to replicate research led to claims of a replication crisis in the social sciences. This has various reasons. Small sample sizes, sloppy research designs and a publishing culture which suffers from publi- cation bias, contribute to it. Therefore, it is highly important, that already published results get replicated, preferably with bigger data samples or different methods, to ensure these are genuine advancements in human knowledge.