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Non-Core Real Estate MEKETA INVESTMENT GROUP BOSTON MA CHICAGO IL MIAMI FL PORTLAND OR SAN DIEGO CA LONDON UK NON-CORE REAL ESTATE Christy Gahr John Humphreys Derek Proctor Timur Yontar MEKETA INVESTMENT GROUP 100 Lowder Brook Drive, Suite 1100 Westwood, MA 02090 meketagroup.com November 2017 MEKETA INVESTMENT GROUP 100 LOWDER BROOK DRIVE SUITE 1100 WESTWOOD MA 02090 781 471 3500 fax 781 471 3411 www.meketagroup.com MEKETA INVESTMENT GROUP NON-CORE REAL ESTATE This paper examines the characteristics of non-core (value-added and opportunistic) real estate strategies and the impact of including them in an investor’s portfolio. It concludes with a recommendation that investors should consider allocating part of their real estate allocation to non-core strategies. INTRODUCTION The characteristics of non-core properties are quite different from those of core properties. The latter consists of high quality assets that have high occupancy rates and provide steady cash flow. The investment profile of a core investment is similar to that of a bond, with reliable income streams and low volatility. These properties do not require significant enhancement, renovation, or development. In contrast, non-core strategies encompass greater risk, through increased use of leverage, greater reliance on renovation or development, a focus on secondary markets, and a number of other factors. In return for taking on greater risk, investors in non-core real estate strategies expect to be compensated via higher returns. Exhibit 1 Core Value-Added Opportunistic Property Types Included 4 majors1 4 + Limited Specialty 4 + Moderate Specialty Occupancy at Acquisition > 85% < 85% < 85% Target Markets Primary Primary/Secondary Primary/Secondary/Tertiary Asset Physical Needs Minor Renovation Rehabilitation/Development Holding Period (years) 7+ 3-7 1-5 Income (as % of total return) > 70% 30% - 70% < 30% Leverage 0% - 40% 40% - 70% 50% - 80% Return Expectations 6% - 8% 10% - 12% 12% + A comparison of core and non-core real estate characteristics is presented in Exhibit 1. These characteristics include portfolio composition, occupancy, target markets, physical needs, holding periods, income expectations, leverage, and expected return. Portfolio composition refers to the prospective types of properties; occupancy at acquisition refers to the proportion of square footage occupied at purchase; target markets refer to property location, such as primary (e.g., central business district) or secondary (e.g., suburban); physical needs refers to the degree of repair required, ranging from repositioning (i.e., refurbishment and operational improvements) to development (i.e., ground up property construction). 1 As described later, these include Office, Retail, Multifamily, and Industrial properties. Specialty properties includes hotel, storage, student housing and other smaller segments of the investable universe. 1 MEKETA INVESTMENT GROUP NON-CORE REAL ESTATE Exhibit 2 Risk/Return Expectations 10% 9% 8% Opportunistic 7% Real Estate Stocks 6% Value-Added 5% Real Estate Core 4% Real Estate Expected Return 3% Bonds 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% Projected3% Volatility 4% 5% STRATEGIES Non-core real estate strategies are usually put into one of two categories: value-added or opportunistic. Each offers unique characteristics, though there can be overlap between them. Value-Added Value-added real estate offers a risk-return profile that is greater than that of core real estate, but less than that of opportunistic, as indicated in Exhibit 2. Compared to core, this strategy focuses more on capital appreciation through physical property enhancement processes: repositioning, renovation, and redevelopment. Repositioning generally involves refurbishment and enhanced property management, which allow for a potential “re-grade” of property quality and for increased revenue. Renovation can include property enlargement, completion of major capital improvements to upgrade quality (e.g., a new roof or lobby), or structural repair and refinishing. Redevelopment can include a major overhaul and conversion of a property for a different use (e.g., a warehouse converted to multifamily apartments). Value-added funds will likely include a moderate income return component, as opposed to opportunistic funds, which rely primarily on appreciation. Assets commonly include the four main property types (i.e., office, retail, multifamily, and industrial) along with occasional and modest investments in hotels and other specialty property types. Value-added strategies are more likely to invest in markets outside of the United States, which adds the risks of currency fluctuation and differing legal frameworks. Leverage is typically limited to 70% loan-to-value, a higher level than core strategies but lower than opportunistic strategies. Most value-added fund vehicles are close-ended, which commit investor capital for periods of ten years or longer. Conversely, some value-added strategies are offered via an open-ended vehicle, with no 2 MEKETA INVESTMENT GROUP NON-CORE REAL ESTATE defined term (i.e., they are “evergreen” funds). Open-ended funds entail additional considerations, including liquidity and valuation risks, which are discussed later on in this paper. Opportunistic Opportunistic strategies offer the highest level of return and risk potential within real estate, as is shown in Exhibit 2. Most of the expected return depends on future appreciation, resulting from physical property enhancements or ground up development. Ground up development introduces distinct and significant risks, specifically, the uncertainty of permitting, on-time and on-budget construction, and leasing. These risks influence the profitability of a development project and affect the developer’s ability to purchase land, construct buildings, lease space to tenants, and to repay debt. However, some risk can be mitigated through various methods, such as pre-sales, purchasing land that is already entitled, and securing cost overrun guarantees from the developer. Opportunistic asset types include the four main types along with hotels and other specialty property types. These specialty property types may include self-storage facilities, entertainment facilities, medical offices, senior housing, and student housing. Opportunistic fund leverage is typically moderate to high, with most fund-level limitations in the range of 50% to 80% loan-to-value. Fund vehicle types are almost exclusively closed-end since the investments are illiquid, difficult to price, and represent projects that can take years to execute. Opportunistic strategies may also seek niche investments in senior or mezzanine debt. Because senior debt is the highest claim in the capital structure, it carries a fairly modest interest rate that generally would not attract an opportunistic investor. However, when the asset and hence the debt are amply distressed, the combination of income with the potential for capital appreciation may turn senior debt into an attractive investment. Mezzanine debt takes a subordinate position in the capital structure, as payment to mezzanine investors is secondary to senior debt. Senior loans have longer maturity terms, such as five to ten years, while mezzanine loans typically have two- to five-year maturity terms and also require significantly higher interest rates. Thus, mezzanine loans are often more attractive to opportunistic investors under most market conditions, due to their higher risk/reward profile. 3 MEKETA INVESTMENT GROUP NON-CORE REAL ESTATE NON-CORE PERFORMANCE Exhibit 3 shows performance for both core and non-core real estate funds based on information provided directly by real estate managers. The data confirms that risk and return profiles of non-core funds vary significantly from those of core funds. The data also indicates that the spread between top and bottom quartile funds (i.e., the inter-quartile spread) was tight for core funds but wide for value-add and opportunistic. This is to be expected, given the greater risk and more concentrated approach inherent in most value-add and opportunistic funds. The wide spread for value-add and opportunistic funds highlights the potential gains of investing with the best managers in the non-core real estate arena. Exhibit 3 Real Estate Returns by Strategy2 (As of December 31, 2016) Core Value-Added Opportunistic 15-Year Annualized Return 6.9% 7.3% 10.5% 15-Year Annualized Standard Deviation 7.4% 12.0% 10.1% 5-Year Inter-Quartile Spread 1.2% 23.2% 22.0% The fifteen-year period shown above included a secular bull market followed by a significant downturn for commercial real estate and the performance data may be biased due to survivorship and self-selection issues. We expect returns to be volatile in the future, but assume that investors will continue to be compensated for investing in riskier real estate assets and benefit over the long run. The following table (Exhibit 4) outlines several real estate portfolio options, along with our expected return and risk for each allocation. Exhibit 4 Possible Real Estate Portfolios Core Real Estate 80% 65% 48% 32% REITs 20 15 12 8 Value-Added 0 10 20 30 Opportunistic 0 10 20 30 Expected Return 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.8 Expected Standard Deviation 14.7 15.6 17.0 18.4 Source: MIG 2017 Annual Asset Study Property Type Descriptions Real estate varies significantly, not only among property types, but within property type sectors. An example of this is high-rise compared to low-rise office buildings, both of which entail considerably different characteristics. As such, it is important to
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