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By John J. Mearsheimer Number 129 • Jan / Feb 2014 • $8.95 Jacob Heilbrunn Talks to Maurice R. Greenberg About China & America Robert D. Blackwill Exposes the Smear Against Henry Kissinger www.nationalinterest.org by John J. Mearsheimer Number 129 . January/February 2014 The Realist 5 Maurice Greenberg on China & America As Beijing rises and Washington drifts, the former aig chairman discusses the future of both countries. While China’s new president Xi Jinping is paving the way for meaningful reform, America must put its financial house in order. Articles 9 America Unhinged by John J. Mearsheimer Washington’s commitment to global domination since the Cold War ended has had immense costs and brought few benefits. It must learn to distinguish between peripheral and vital strategic interests—and accept that it is far safer than its elites think. 31 Inglorious Revolutions by David A. Bell The notion that revolutions are often quickly successful is chimerical. They are usually bloody and protracted affairs. It is Western hubris to expect them to usher in stable, representative democracies overnight. 39 In Defense of Kissinger by Robert D. Blackwill Princeton historian Gary Bass offers a tendentious and misleading account of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s approach toward the violent 1971 South Asia crisis in The Blood Telegram. The actual record shows that they got it right. Images Shutterstock: pages 7, 10, 15, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 30, 34, 37, 52, 55, 57, 69, 74, 77, 83, 86; Wikimedia Commons: pages 41, 45, 62, 90, 91, 93 51 Tinker, Tailor, Leaker, Spy by David V. Gioe The debate so far over massive leaks of classified information has focused on the balance between liberty and secrecy. But the real cost will be seen in coming decades, in the form of a reduced ability to recruit human-intelligence sources. 60 China’s Near-Seas Challenges by Andrew S. Erickson Beijing’s present focus on developing potent capabilities to resolve disputes favorably in its maritime periphery threatens stability and important international norms in a critical area of the global commons. Reviews & Essays 67 The Myth of America’s Triumph by Michael Lind Josef Joffe’s ode to America is as bogus as claims that the country is in terminal decline. His affection for America misleads him into becoming its cheerleader at a moment when Washington’s reputation around the world is steadily eroding. 79 Western Civ’s Life Coach by David Rieff Beware Arthur Herman’s survey of Western thought, which begins in bombast and ends in triviality. He downplays its Christian heritage and misrepresents Plato and Aristotle. 87 The Odd Couple by Robert W. Merry In the annals of American history, few stories of personal fellowship are as poignant and affecting as the friendship between Theodore Roosevelt and William Howard Taft, which culminated in enmity. America saw the gop rupture based on atmospherics, brazenly inaccurate accusations, ideological fervor and personal whims writ large. Published by The Center for the National Interest Maurice R. Greenberg Chairman Henry A. Kissinger Honorary Chairman James Schlesinger Chairman, Advisory Council Jacob Heilbrunn Editor Dimitri K. Simes Publisher & CEO Harry J. Kazianis Managing Editor Paul J. Saunders Associate Publisher Alexa McMahon Associate Managing Editor Robert Golan-Vilella Assistant Managing Editor Advisory Council John Allen Gay Assistant Managing Editor Morton Abramowitz Graham Allison Political Editor Conrad Black Robert W. Merry Patrick J. Buchanan Contributing Editors Ahmed Charai Aram Bakshian Jr. Leslie H. Gelb Ian Bremmer Evan G. Greenberg Ted Galen Carpenter Gary Hart Christian Caryl Zalmay Khalilzad Ariel Cohen Kishore Mahbubani Amitai Etzioni John J. Mearsheimer Nikolas K. Gvosdev Bruce Hoffman Richard Plepler Michael Lind Alexey Pushkov Lewis E. McCrary Brent Scowcroft Paul R. Pillar Ruth Wedgwood Kenneth M. Pollack J. Robinson West David Rieff Dov Zakheim Owen Harries Editor Emeritus Cover Design: Emma Hansen Robert W. Tucker Editor Emeritus Cover Image: ©Adam Niklewicz/Corbis Images Editorial Office The National Interest, 1025 Connecticut Ave, nw, Suite 1200, Washington, dc 20036. Telephone: (202) 467-4884, Fax: (202) 467-0006, Email: [email protected], Website: http://nationalinterest.org Subscription Office Postmaster and subscribers please send address changes and subscription orders to: The National Interest, P.O. Box 1081, Selmer, tn 38375. Telephone: (856) 380-4130; (800) 344-7952 Rate: $39.95/yr. Please add $5/year for Canada and $20/year for other international deliveries. The National Interest (ISSN 0884-9382) is published bimonthly by the Center for the National Interest. Articles are abstracted and indexed in P.A.I.S., Historical Abstracts, International Political Science Abstracts, U.S. Political Science Documents, Political Science Abstracts and America: History and Life; articles are available on microfilm from University Microfilms International, and archived on Lexis-Nexis. Periodicals postage is paid at Washington, dc, and at additional mailing offices. ©2014 by The National Interest, Inc. The National Interest is printed by Fry Communications, Inc. It is distributed in the U.S. and Canada by Ingram Periodicals (18 Ingram Blvd., La Vergne, tn 37086; 615-793-5522) and Source Interlink Companies (27500 Riverview Center Blvd., Bonita Springs, fl 34134; 239-949-4450). The Realist JH: What do you think specifically has Maurice Greenberg changed and why? on China & America MG: We had some principles we stood for and believed in, and we were respected The National Interest’s editor Jacob around the world for those principles. Heilbrunn recently spoke with Maurice R. Enemy and friend alike may not like us, Greenberg, the former chairman and ceo of but they respected us and what we believed aig, chairman and ceo of starr Insurance in. I don’t sense that anymore. I think we’ve Holdings, Inc., and chairman of the Center backed away from being a world leader, for for the National Interest. What follows is a whatever reason. lightly edited version of their conversation. JH: Do you think it’s a loss of confidence Jacob Heilbrunn: If you look at your and willpower or an actual diminution of career and life as a businessman—as American strength? a soldier who fought in Normandy and helped liberate Dachau concentration MG: I think we have the strength potential camp—it does exemplify America at to do whatever we want as a country. One its peak. We’ve had this whole era with of our strengths has been the diversity of America as a superpower. When you look our population. The immigrants that came back, do you feel that America today has to this country were Eastern Europeans. absorbed the lessons that we learned in And they had a different work ethic. They’d World War II and afterward, or have we never go on welfare; my God, they’d rather peaked as a superpower? slit their throats than do that. We have a different population today, and we’ve Maurice R. Greenberg: Well, we’ve become entitlement-bound. And it’s not changed. There’s no question about that. considered improper to get entitlements, When I came back from World War II, for whatever reason. They don’t feel along with ten million other Americans, I any degradation in their own self, as an had to finish high school. I didn’t want to go individual. That’s a change. Is it going to go to college. I could have gone to West Point. back and change again? But I didn’t want to stay in the military. I was nineteen years old when I came back. JH: It’s interesting that England is doing I stayed in the reserves because I needed relatively well economically now, even the money, and I was going to school. So though its leaders pushed through some when the Korean War broke out, right after pretty severe austerity cuts. The pound has I finished law school, I was recalled, and I strengthened against the dollar. spent over a year in Korea. But America’s changed, there’s no question about it. MG: They did. They’re doing their best to The Realist January/February 2014 5 encourage financial institutions to settle in of land, he should be able to do that and London. Because where do you go? Wall keep the money himself. China must build Street is under great pressure by regulation. a larger and more efficient agriculture than Hong Kong has limitations. Singapore is it currently has. The leadership needs to a little out of the way. So London, which make more funds available to small- and had been at the top of the heap, is trying to medium-sized businesses, and I’ve been regain the crown. arguing with the Chinese about that for years. If you’re going to become a consumer JH: What was your impression of the new market, you’ve got to let these small Chinese leadership when you were there companies grow. They’re starved for capital recently? and need to be able to borrow from the banks, and the banks have been lending MG: I’m a member of the advisory all their money to these state-owned board to the Tsinghua University School enterprises. I think there’s a movement to of Economics and Management, and find some way to make funds available to Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, small- and medium-sized companies. Then recently spent an hour meeting with the they grow, hire people, become consumers. members. He came across as very focused, There’s change coming, but it won’t be determined, confident. The Third Plenum rapid change. showed that he has further consolidated his power. It is a precondition for JH: Has there been something that’s getting meaningful reform through the surprised you the most in seeing China bureaucracy.
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