CLIMATE CHANGE, MIGRATION AND ADAPTATION IN DELTAS

Key findings from the DECCMA project

BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY JADAVPUR UNIVERSITY OF GHANA OF ENGINEERING & UNIVERSITY INDIA TECHNOLOGY CONTENTS

Our approach and research activities 1 Why are deltas important? 6 What we have done 8 What we have done: economic modelling 10 What we have done: integrated assessment modelling 12

Present situation in deltas 14 At risk from climate change – sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding, salinization 16 Deltas play a key role in national economies 18 Migration from rural areas to nearby urban areas is a continuing trend, driven largely by economic opportunity 20 Migration has consequences in both sending and receiving areas 22 Environment is a proximate cause of migration 23 Displacement and planned relocation 24 Adaptation is occurring now 30 Livelihood adaptations 31 Structural adaptations 33 Migration as an adaptation 34 Sub-optimal policy and implementation framework for migration and adaptation 36

Future situation in deltas 38 Impacts of 1.5OC temperature increase 40 Climate change will lead to significant economic losses by 2050 42 More adaptation will be needed 44 Modelling what determines adaptation decisions 46 Influential drivers of adaptation decisions by male- and female-headed households 47

Engagement and impact 50 Raising the profile of delta residents with parliamentarians (Volta) 52 Inputs to the Coastal Development Authority Bill (Volta) 53 Requested to provide inputs to policy and highlighting delta migration (Mahanadi) 54 Partnership with the West Bengal State Department of Environment (Indian Bengal delta) 55 Capacity building 56 Outputs 63 DECCMA team members 72 OUR APPROACH

OUR APPROACH AND RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

4 5 1. Volta delta in Ghana OUR APPROACH WHY ARE DELTAS IMPORTANT?

Deltas are home to 500 million systems: the transboundary people worldwide and known as Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna a climate change “hotspot” – a megadelta (comprising the place where high exposure to Indian Bengal delta, as well as climate stresses coincides with the bulk in Bangladesh), the high levels of vulnerability. Mahanadi delta in India, and the Volta in Ghana. DECCMA has been undertaking 2. Mahanadi delta research on climate and in India environmental change, migration and adaptation in three delta

ASIA Bangladesh

India AFRICA 3. 2. Ghana

3. Ganges-Brahmaputra- 1. Meghna megadelta, compising the Indian Bengal delta (outlined in purple) and the bulk in Bangladesh (outlined in red)

6 7 Conducting interviews in Ramgoti, Bangladesh

(Photo: WHAT WE HAVE DONE DECCMA Bangladesh) OUR APPROACH

In each delta we have done the following activities:

cc Risk mapping based on the IPCC framework (hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability, adaptive capacity)

cc Analysed how environmental shocks and change affects economic output, employment and linkages, using macro- economic models and scenarios Conducting interviews in cc Investigated adaptation strategies and migration behaviour Indian Bengal delta across the deltas through surveys of women and men in more than 5000 households in areas from low to high exposure to (Photo: Victoria Price) natural hazards

cc Investigated the multiple dimensions of well-being and the lived experience of migrants in cities of the deltas through surveys of more than 2500 migrants in seven destination cities and towns.

cc Compiled inventories of documented adaptation

cc Reviews of governance and policy

This common approach allows us to compare across deltas.

Conducting participatory exercises in the Mahanadi delta

(Photo: Giorgia Prati)

8 9 WHAT WE HAVE DONE:

OUR APPROACH ECONOMIC MODELLING

Structure of the Delta-CGE model to determine cc Developed a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (Delta- economic impacts of climate change CGE) based on custom Social Accounting Matrix and Input-Output tables to investigate delta economies under different climate scenarios and adaptation policy directions.

Subsidies Firms Shares, profits, etc.

Pay taxes Total Factor Mirgrants Output Productivity Receive income Investments Remittances Technology Households (consumer, labour...) Pay taxes

Governments Interest Fish Capital Offer their time, skills.. Labour Land Other inputs rate to the labour markets Subsidies D, RoC Factors Impact or Row Depreciation Public consumption Income devotes to rate Productivity Shocks Consumption Savings

Environmental stresses: D, RoC or Row Soil salinization, erosion, etc. (Domestic, Rest of the Country or Rest of the world) Continous Climate Change processes & Infrastructure losses extreme events

More information: Arto, I., García-Muros, X. Cazcarro, I., González-Eguino, M., Markandya, A., Hazra, S. 2019. The socioeconomic future of deltas in a changing environment. Science of the Total Environment 648, 1284-1296.

10 11 Structure of DECCMA’s integrated assessment model OUR APPROACH WHAT WE HAVE DONE: Development strategies INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

MODELLING National Interventions Economy

National Delta Household/ cc Developed a conceptual model to investigate plausible Members future household migration and adaptation patterns • Characteristics • Well-being Local status &

cc Combined bio-physical and socio-economic models Regional trajectory

Governance Local context in a quantitative framework to investigate the causal Governance • Decision on relationships resulting in migration and/or adaptation. • Environment next actions quality The integrated model links across scales, from the high • Economy level (national and regional interventions and economy) Environment • Demography Quality & Hazards • land use land down to the household level and individual decisions. cover It uses the (empirical and simulated) knowledge • Erosion generated within DECCMA. Our hybrid model • Water quality & quantity framework is designed to be computationally efficient • Flooding

utilising both process-based and statistical methods. Climate • Salinization • Forestry Livelihoods The outputs of the integrative model are designed to • Pastureland • Agriculture inform the consequences of different adaptation policy • Aquaculture directions on household behaviour. • Forest product collection • Fishing • Fishing • Animal Current husbandry • Industry timestep • Construction next • Services timestep

More information: Lazar, A.N., Nicholls, R.J., Payo, A., Adams, H., Mortreux, C., Suckall, N., Vincent, K., Hazra, S., Amisigo, B.S., Rahman, M., Haque, A., Adger, W.N., Hill, C.2015. A method to assess migration and adaptation in deltas: A preliminary fast track assessment, DECCMA Working Paper, Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation, IDRC Project Number 107642. Available online at: www.deccma.com

12 13 OUR APPROACH

PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS

Adapting to rising water levels is often essential for delta residents (Photo: Saiful Alam) 14 15 Assessment of levels of sub-district level social vulnerability AT RISK FROM CLIMATE in the transboundary Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta CHANGE – SEA LEVEL RISE, in Bangladesh and India COASTAL EROSION, FLOODING, SALINIZATION

DECCMA has conducted the first data from each country. It transboundary assessment of shows that a social vulnerability levels of social vulnerability to gradient exists across the climate change in the Ganges- coast, with the most vulnerable Brahmaputra Meghna delta in communities on the delta margin. Bangladesh and India. The delta Looking at change over time has a population of nearly 57 from 2001-11 shows that efforts to million and is exposed to a range address poverty, generate non- of hazards including sea level farm employment or improve rise, coastal erosion, flooding and health and sanitation status have PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION salinization, often exacerbated played a role in reducing social by climate change and other vulnerability. However, major stresses. An assessment of cyclones such as Sidr (2007) social vulnerability helps to and Aila (2009) and other identify which communities climatic hazards have increased are more vulnerable to these social vulnerability in some sub- environmental changes, and districts. can serve as guide to inform adaptation actions. LEGEND

The sub-district level assessment International Boundary (Upazila level in Bangladesh and Mangrove forest Community Development Block Social Vulnerability Index (2011) in India) is based on Principal Very High Component Analysis of census High Medium Low Very Low

More information: Das et al., 2018. Assessment of spatio-temporal dynamics of social vulnerability in Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Draft, in preparation

16 17 DELTAS PLAY A KEY ROLE IN NATIONAL ECONOMIES Distribution of GDP and employment by sector and delta, 2011

Volta GDP and employment Mahanadi GDP and employment Deltas are significant contributors sector, in which subsistence to the national economies of production dominates, compared Bangladesh, India and Ghana. to other economic activities. 20% 20% 33% Services Services 12% They supply, and sometimes 12% 20% 25% Trade-Transport Trade-Transport add value to, natural resources Looking at the breakdown 26% 13% 11% 8% Construction Construction such as agriculture and fishing, of contribution to GDP and 3% 5% which comprise 16-29% of the employment also enables analysis 20% 14% Industry 19% Industry 8% GDP in the deltas. Input-Output of the potential sectoral impacts 7% 3% Fishing Fishing Analysis shows that other of changing deltas – for example 6% 5% 22% 17% activities such as services, trade what would happen if there is Agriculture 34% Agriculture 53% and transportation account for a disappearance of agriculture. 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 50% of the income in Asia and The integration of agriculture 40% in the Volta. In terms of with other sectors means that PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION employment, however, the role the indirect effects of loss of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna GDP Indian Bengal delta GDP of the primary sector in the agriculture would be higher in and employment and employment economy is more relevant than the Volta (8.3%) and GBM (over in terms of GDP. The share of 5%) compared with the Indian 22% 28% Services Services the employment engaged in the deltas. These indirect losses are 13% 19% 20% 31% 31% Trade-Transport Trade-Transport primary sector ranges from 32% linked to the importance of the 27% 24% in the Indian Bengal delta to 16% 9% food processing industry, and in Construction Construction 7% 5% 58% in Mahanadi. This difference the GBM also due to textiles and 15% 14% Industry Industry between the sectoral distribution leather transformation. 11% 21% 4% 4% Fishing Fishing in GDP and that of employment 6% 5% is the consequence of the low 12% 15% Agriculture 38% Agriculture 27% productivity of the agricultural 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60%

GDP Employment

More information: Cazcarro, I., Arto, I., Hazra, S., Bhattacharya, R.N., Adjei, P.O-W., Ofori-Danson, P.K., Asenso, J.K., Amponsah, S.K., Khondker, B., Reihan, S., Hosser, Z. 2018. Biophysical and socioeconomic state and links of deltaic areas vulnerable to climate change: Volta (Ghana), Mahanadi (India) and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (India and Bangladesh). Sustainability 10(3), 893.

18 19 MIGRATION FROM RURAL AREAS TO NEARBY URBAN AREAS IS A CONTINUING TREND, DRIVEN LARGELY BY ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

People have always been mobile migrants move within their own within deltas. The natural countries. Women tend to move environment in deltas is very for family reasons (for example to dynamic and mobility is one way join a spouse, or to get married). to manage this. Rural-urban Evidence from the Indian Bengal internal migration predominates, delta shows that gender differences and economic reasons are cited in migration patterns reflect the by migrants as the primary reason gendered nature of the labour for their migration – for example market. Men tend to move to the the opportunity for employment. peri-urban areas, where they find PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION Migration patterns are also opportunities in the construction strongly gendered. The majority of industry; whereas women tend to migrants are men, and in all three move to the centre of the city to countries over three quarters of work as domestic helpers.

Destinations of internal male and female migrants from the Indian Bengal (left) and Mahanadi (right) deltas

20 Flooding is a regular occurrence in deltas (Photo: Saiful Alam) 21 MIGRATION HAS CONSEQUENCES IN ENVIRONMENT IS A PROXIMATE BOTH SENDING AND RECEIVING AREAS CAUSE OF MIGRATION

The implications of migration becoming crucibles of risk, with Only a small proportion of affect people’s ability to earn a depend on the circumstances poverty in terms of material respondents (less than 3%) singled living, particularly for slow-onset under which it has taken place. status and perceived well-being out an environmental cause as the environmental hazards such as In particular, implications depend (even if the ability to remit main reason for their migration. drought and coastal erosion. In the on whether migration is voluntary money back home improves However, one third of all households Volta delta, for example, there is a or involuntary – the latter being material well-being in migrant- with migrants perceived that strong positive association between when people do not really wish sending areas). Voluntary there was an increased exposure perceived impact of droughts on to move but do so due to an migration is more likely to be to environmental hazards, economic security of livelihood and absence of options in their home deemed successful by migrants and between 40-80% of the migration. location. Involuntary migration and families left behind. respondents across the four deltas can contribute to urban centres associated environmental factors In our deltas we also find evidence with more insecure livelihoods. of whole households that have So rather than having a direct been displaced as a result of PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION effect, climate and environment environmental change, for example affect migration because they erosion and flooding.

70 Economic (Employment & debt) 62,26 60 Social (Education, marriage, health, family & housing problems)

50 Environmental (Loss of income one/ multiple seasons, environmental 40 degradation & extreme events) 33,07 Political (Social/political problems) 30

% of migrants of % Other 20

10 2,87 1,65 0,15 0 Reasons

Destination of internal male and female migrants from the Volta (left) and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (right) deltas Main reason for migration across all four deltas as reported by household heads (N=1803)

22 23 The rapidly eroding coastline of Satavaya, Odisha causes houses and land to be washed into DISPLACEMENT AND the sea PLANNED RELOCATION

Displacement and resettlement in the Mahanadi delta

After watching land and houses in Satavaya Gram Panchayat fall into the sea, the state government of Odisha has taken a pioneering and “humanitarian approach” to relocation. Since the 1970s eleven villages within the Rajnagar block have been eroded and at present a further five exist with an imminent fear of being swept into the sea or buried under the sand. In addition to erosion, steadily A “humanitarian approach” to resettlement encroaching sands can also No in-situ adaptation measures were feasible in Satavaya, leaving make houses resettlement as the only option to save the lives of the people residing uninhabitable

PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION in these villages. The communities from the five villages of Satavaya, Kanhupur, Barahipur, Magarakanda and Rabindrapalli under the Satavaya Gram Panchayat are being relocated 9 kilometres inland in the village of Bagapatia under the Gupti Gram Panchayat.

Land, houses and amenities provided

Resettled citizens are entitled to receive funds for constructing concrete houses with proper sanitation facilities. Electricity, drinking water, drainage, and connectivity have been improved. Community facilities have also been provided, including schools, a rural mother and child care centre, cyclone shelter, crematorium and temple.

There is also a market place for trading, and a bus stop to ensure Traditional connectivity with other places. “kutcha” houses made of mud and thatch are easily eroded and damaged by floods

24 25 Houses under construction in Bagapatia.

Challenges of the resettlement process The resettlement process has led to challenges for the government and the citizens. For the government, the major hurdle was getting a suitable plot of land for relocating 571 families. At the initial stages, negotiating with some elderly citizens was difficult to convince them to move. Some residents of the eroded settlements are migrant workers in Kerala and coordinating with them has been complex. For the communities relocated to Bagapatia, only homestead land has been provided and allotment of agricultural land is still under consideration at the government level. Most of the resettled citizens previously relied on agriculture as their primary livelihood option and Local women in Satavaya without any cultivable land at Bagapatia, they have lost their catch fish from ability to make a living. The distance from the coast also means the nearby sea that they are no longer able to fish. for their daily subsistence,

PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION which will Lessons learned for future resettlement no longer be possible once The experience of resettlement from Satavaya to Bagapatia they move to Bagapatia highlights three lessons for the future. The first is the need for provision in resettlement and rehabilitation legislation and policies for people displaced by environmental factors. The second is that livelihood provision and support should take place concurrently with provision of homestead land and housing. The third is that a single nodal agency - or task team - from the beginning may facilitate coordination and expedite an effective and efficient process.

Overhead tank for drinking water, cyclone shelter, and electrical lines at For more information: Unpacking Resettlement – A journey from Satavaya to Bagapatia Bagapatia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ueRa1jVs-w

26 27 How do governments decide when relocation should occur?

This conceptual model highlights how different factors interact to create uneven government responses to communities threatened by environmental change. Upper panel A: determinants of decisions; Middle panel B: deci- sions; Lower panel C: Outcomes for communities.

A

Environment Attitudes and aversion to risk

Adequate institutional Defensive avoidance and structures and remit cognitive distancing Perceived benefits of Prohibitive costs investment in adaptation Institutional blind spots Provision of legitimacy Institutional paralysis Perceived pressure to respond PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION

B Action Inaction

Mediated by Mediated by

Government responsiveness Household capacity Support from other institutions Support for other institutions Household capacity Potential to incentivise government action

C

Potential Planned Independent Disaster relief Assisted Planned Private in-situ Independent for trapped in-situ disaster relief and recovery migration relocation adaptation migration population or adaptation and recovery abandonment

More information: Mortreux, C., Safra de Campos, R., Adger, W.N., Ghosh, T., Das, S., Adams, H., Hazra, S. 2018. Political economy of planned relocation: A model of action and inaction in government responses. Global Environmental Change 50, 123-132.

28 29 ADAPTATION IS OCCURRING NOW LIVELIHOOD ADAPTATIONS

There are both structural and livelihood adaptations in operation in the deltas. The particular mix of adaptations employed in each delta varies.

In Bangladesh, the three most frequent household adaptations made in the last five years are:

71% 63% 61%

The use of loans Planting trees Modifying the house around the home

In the Indian Bengal delta, the top three are:

PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION 76% 54% 50% Agricultural adaptation: Use of fertiliser in the Indian Bengal delta (Photo: Sumana Banerjee)

Changing the amount of Making changes to The use of loans fertiliser used on the farm irrigation practices

In the Mahanadi the top three are:

67% 45% 39%

Changing the amount of The use of loans Planting trees fertiliser used on the farm around the home

In the Volta delta the top three are: Agricultural adaptation: Salt-tolerant rice varieties

56% 41% 34%

More information: Hossain, M.A.R., Ahmed, M., Ojea, E., Fernandes, J.A. 2018. Impacts and responses to environmental change in coastal livelihoods of south-west Bangladesh. Science of the Total Environment 637-638, 954-970. Islam, M.A., Akber, M.A., Ahmed, M., Rahman, M.M., Rahman, M.R. 2018. Climate change adaptations of shrimp farmers: a case study from southwest coastal Bangladesh, Climate and Development. Buying or selling Changing the amount of Diversifying crops Saha, D., Hossain, M.S.S., Mondal, M.S., Rahman, R. 2016. Agricultural adaptation practices in coastal farming tools fertiliser used on the farm Bangladesh: Response to climate change impacts, Journal of Modern Science and Technology 4(1), 63-74.

30 31 Agricultural adaptation: Use of irrigation for shallot farming in the Volta delta (Photo: STRUCTURAL ADAPTATIONS Katharine Vincent)

Structural adaptations are often sea walls and flood gates. Houses essential to stabilise mobile land are often modified to withstand and protect infrastructure and flood risk – for example being raised livelihoods. Structural adaptations or situated on concrete plinths. in evidence in Bangladesh, India Cyclone shelters are present in the and Ghana include embankments, Asian deltas to reduce disaster risk.

Integrated farming: Fish cultivation in the water channels and vegetable cultivation on the dykes PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION

(Photo: Tuhin Ghosh)

Volta sluice gate Cyclone shelter in the Mahanadi (Photo: Katharine Vincent) (Photo: DECCMA India)

Diversifying livelihoods away from crops and fishing in the Indian Bengal delta

(Photo: Farha Naaz)

Breakwater, Volta, Keta, Ghana Embankment construction in the Indian Bengal delta (Photo: Katharine Vincent) (Photo: Shouvik Das)

32 32 33 Migration was used as an adaptation response in all three deltas: MIGRATION AS AN ADAPTATION

27% 18% 24% 13%

Bangladesh Indian Mahanadi Volta Bengal delta

Interestingly, though, migration was not among the top three strategies deemed to be successful adaptations in any of the deltas. PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION

Migrants are often forced to live in precarious conditions in cities.

More information: Ghosh, A.K., Banerjee, S., Naaz, F. 2018. Adapting to climate change-induced migration. Women in the Indian Bengal delta. Economic and Political Weekly 53(17) Maharjan, A., Safra de Campos, R., Das, S., Srinivas, A., Singh, C., Bhuiyan, R.A., Ishaq, S., Shrestha, K., Dilshad, T., Umar, M.A., Bhadwal, S., Ghosh, T., Suckall, N., Vincent, K. 2018. Migration and adaptation in the context of environmental change: lessons from interdisciplinary work in South Asia. Submitted for publication.

34 Many migrants move to urban and peri-urban areas 35 Evaluation of the policy framework for different spheres in each delta SUB-OPTIMAL POLICY AND

Natural Natural Natural IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK Human Human Resource Resource Resource Disaster Climate Rights for Rights - Mgmt. Mgmt. Mgmt. Risk Mgmt. Change FOR MIGRATION AND ADAPTATION Displaced Gender Ecosystem Land Water / Response Adaptation Persons Approach tenure Resource

Governments seem averse to internally displaced persons are Bangladesh recognising migration and many generally inadequate. So those countries have a “policy gap”. In migrating as a result of disasters Ghana India there is an almost complete may not be protected in the areas absence of policy addressing they migrate (or are moved) to. Indian migration. The lack of customary Bengal delta legal frameworks may discourage Similarly the extent of policy people from moving because they Mahanadi implementation is often imperfect, fear the loss of their land (e.g. in the with common issues across deltas Indian Bengal delta). relating to unrealistic timeframes Good Reasonable Poor and inadequate resources

PRESENT SITUATION IN DELTAS PRESENT SITUATION Examination of around 30 policy (contributing to suboptimal More information: documents and laws took place in monitoring and evaluation). Policy Ghosh, A.K., Dey, S., Hazra, S.,. 2016. Review of national adaptation policies, India, DECCMA Working Paper, Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: each delta to assess the state of frameworks for adaptation are not Migration and Adaptation, IDRC Project Number 107642. Available online at: www.deccma.com Ghosh, A.K., Hazra, S., Dey, S,. 2016. Review of national adaptation policies, India, DECCMA Working Paper, Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: both policy and legal frameworks necessarily supported by legal Migration and Adaptation, IDRC Project Number 107642. Available online at: www.deccma.com (including customary frameworks) frameworks. Hazra, S., Dey, S., Ghosh, A.K. 2016. Review of Odisha State Adaptation Policies, Mahanadi Delta. DECCMA Working Paper, Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation, IDRC Project Number 107642. Available online at: www.deccma.com relevant to migration and to Mensah, A., Anderson, K., Nelson, W., 2016. Review of Adaptation Related Policies in Ghana, DECCMA Working Paper, Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate climate change adaptation more Change: Migration and Adaptation, IDRC Project Number 107642. Available online at: www.deccma.com There is increasing evidence of generally, and highlights where awareness of gender issues in these frameworks are good (green), policy making but it is not yet reasonable (yellow) and poor (red). adequate. Female participating in policy-making processes is Even those areas that were poor (reiterated by the fact that assessed as being strong may between 69-89% of respondents potentially be sources of problems on our survey investigating policy from the adaptation perspective. implementation barriers were male); For example, Disaster Risk the connections between climate Reduction approaches are generally change and sectoral vulnerabilities strong where they are most relevant as they differentially affect men – in Bangladesh and India mainly – and women are not being made; but they are undermined somewhat and enforceable implementation of by the fact that the human rights policy objectives on gender is not frameworks as they relate to as good as it might be.

36 Access to freshwater is a critical challenge in deltas (Photo: Shouvik Das) 37 OUR APPROACH

FUTURE SITUATION IN DELTAS

Dacope polder in Bangladesh enables farming and fishing (Photo: Nazmul Huda) 38 39 Average decadal mean area submerged due to monsoon flooding under a 1.5, 2 and 3oC increase in temperature (assuming no flood protection/adaptation) IMPACTS OF 1.5OC TEMPERATURE INCREASE Q0 Q8 Q16

The Paris Agreement commits to the year on year variability

Parties to the United Nations that is already characteristic of 1.5OC Framework Convention on deltas. Climate Change to limit global average temperature increase If the temperature increase o to 2 C, with a vision of limiting reaches 3oC, some of o to 1.5 C. We looked at the consequences more than likely impacts of sea level rise double. The area of land flooded in Bangladesh depending on

is more than 2.5 times greater 2.0 how much the global average with a 3oC increase in global

temperature increases. O

temperature than it is if the C increase is limited to 1.5oC. We are likely to reach a global average temperature increase Those at greatest risk in o of 2 C before 2033. This Bangladesh are in the central temperature increase will bring regions and northeast, where 3.0 with it an increase in sea level of there are fewer polders to between 5-14cm. Until 2040 the O protect the land from rising C differences that are likely from a seas. Polders are planned in this o o 1.5 C increase and a 2 C increase area to manage flooding and are indistinguishable largely due rising water levels.

Average decadal mean area of land inundated by flooding (km2) FUTURE SITUATION IN DELTAS FUTURE SITUATION

0-5 7.5 - 15 50 -100 >150 Upazilas where maximum flooding 5-7.5 15 - 50 100 - 150 is greater thans four rimes the mean. Outline of upazila Waterways

More information: Brown S., Nicholls R.J, Lázár A., Sugata H., Appeaning Addo K., Hornby D.D., Hill C., Haque A,, Caesar J. and Tompkins E., 2018. What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C rise in global mean temperatures in vulnerable deltas? Regional Environmental Change 18(6), 1829-1842, DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1311-0

40 41 CLIMATE CHANGE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC LOSSES BY 2050

In the context of a changing loss in GDP per capita, or 0.25% climate, the Computable GDP per capita in the whole of Generalised Equilibrium India. In the Volta the effects (Delta-CGE) model shows on fisheries are relatively more the net impacts of shocks on important, whilst in the Ganges- agriculture (losses in terms of Brahmaputra-Meghna agriculture land availability and crop yield), is the sector with the biggest fisheries, and infrastructure, with economic impacts, accounting and without adaptation options. for 10% cumulative loss in GDP In the Mahanadi the main shocks per capita, or 2% GDP per capita are found in infrastructure, reductions in the rest of the accounting for 11% cumulative country.

Fisheries in Bangladesh (Photo: RMMRU)

CUMULATIVE LOSS OF GDP PER CAPITA BY SECTOR BY 2050

Delta Infrastructure Agriculture* Fisheries

Mahanadi 11% 2-7% 0.09%

FUTURE SITUATION IN DELTAS FUTURE SITUATION Indian 7% 4-8% 0.33% Bengal delta

Volta 2% 3-7% 0.85%

Ganges- Brahmaputra- 9% 8-11% 0.36% Meghna

* Conditioned on whether CO2 fertilization and good management practices take place or not.

42 Preparing ground in the Indian Bengal delta (Photo: Farha Naaz) 43 MORE ADAPTATION WILL BE NEEDED

Adaptation can effectively reduce headed households do not use the the magnitude of projected impacts. same adaptations – recognition of For agriculture, embankments this shows how to support gender- and protection and restoration of equitable adaptation. mangroves could reduce projected economic losses by about 2% in the Bangladesh, Ghana and India Indian deltas. In the Volta delta, the all have climate change policies effects from the expected shocks in place and have integrated on fisheries could be reduced by adaptation into other policies housing for fisheries, establishment and plans to various extents. The of fish seed hatcheries, and further recently-approved Bangladesh development of retail fish markets Delta Plan 2100 is an adaptive delta and allied infrastructure. management planning process that will support adaptation to climate Early infrastructure protection change, and Odisha is finalising the Brick embankments to protect delta land (Photo: DECCMA) and capital investment and linked second version of its State Action forms of adaptation are effective Plan on Climate Change. DECCMA’s and less costly than having results are informing both of to remediate post disaster. At these plans. household level, the vast majority of adaptations link to accessing loans/ microfinance. Male and female- FUTURE SITUATION IN DELTAS FUTURE SITUATION

More information: Suckall, N., Tompkins, E.L., Nicholls, R.J., Kebede, A.S., Lázár, A.N., Vincent, K., Allan, A., Chapman, A., Rahman, R., Ghosh, T., Hutton, C., Mensah, A. 2018. A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas. Science of the Total Environment 633, 946-957 Tompkins, E.L., Vincent, K., Nicholls, R.J., Suckall, N. 2018. Documenting the state of adaptation for the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement. WIREs Climate Change c545.

Increasing opportunities exist for women in formal sector employment, such as in this biscuit factory 44 in Dhaka (Photo: DECCMA Bangladesh) 45 MODELLING WHAT DETERMINES INFLUENTIAL DRIVERS OF ADAPTATION DECISIONS ADAPTATION DECISIONS BY MALE- AND FEMALE-HEADED We have developed a Bayesian household head. This helps us HOUSEHOLDS network model for coastal to understand what could be Bangladesh that models with done to improve the likelihood good accuracy the relative of households adapting in-situ, The model shows that the total income and through influence of household taking into account the different conditions under which livelihood potential (i.e. yield structure, mobility, remittances factors that affect decisions individuals use migration as an and livelihood stability). and environmental stress on of male- and female-headed adaptation to environmental household decision-making households. risk are socially differentiated There are important gender (focusing on adaptation and and contextually contingent. differences in what drives migration), and the mediating These conditions can be decisions for male- and female- influence of the gender of the described by financial, physical, headed households. Even natural, human, social and though wealth is important for psychological indicators both household types, when describing the adaptive adaptation decisions are made capacity, migration capacity by male-headed households and sense of security of the they are influenced by cash Migration Capacity household. flow (income/expenditure- (physical & psychological) based financial capital), In-situ livelihood adaptations whereas for female-headed (such as intensification and households every single Basic diversification of crops) are decision is associated with Decision Adaptive Capacity Sense of Security dominantly natural capital and physical capital indicators (human, social, (hazards, perceptions, environmental security-related. (e.g. material of roof). Since natural, physical, livelihood stability) On the other hand, migration incomes and expenditures can financial capitals) Migrate Adapt livelihood decisions are deeply rooted in be highly variable, this means FUTURE SITUATION IN DELTAS FUTURE SITUATION in-situ financial and human capitals. that adaptive responses by Interestingly, environmental male-headed households are hazards are only important contingent upon sufficient for financial and structural access to financial capital. Barriers adaptations. However, hazards On the other hand, female- (money, destination, and environmental changes headed households make skills, family) have an indirect effect on all more conscious decisions decisions through affecting based on their long-term

The drivers that affect the decision to adapt livelihoods in-situ or migrate

46 47 Human Capital Human Capital Social Capital

Migrant Life Cycle Network Size Life Cycle Household Size financial capabilities (i.e. their number of skills and asset quality) and have the household size are most Migration Attitude Income lower numbers of recorded influential. This shows that Financial Migration Drinking Structural Place Attachment adaptations. male-headed households Expenditure change Attitude Water Change Financial Capital probably adapt more easily Network Migration

Drinking Water Capital Physical Experience Migration Capacity Migration Human capital is an as time progresses purely Capacity Migration Exposure to Env Stress based on their lifecycle Roof important factor affecting Yield Exposure To Perception Of To Env Stress Env Change household decisions for (that also correlates with Sense of Security

age of head). On the other Capital Physical both male- and female- Natural Capital Sense of Security headed households, but in hand, female-headed different ways. For male- households have important headed households, the barriers to adaptation Human Capital household structure and such as gender roles in the household and community, the age of head are most Life Cycle # of skills and also more limited Intensify important, whereas for Income livelihood female-headed households skillsets. Livelihood Diversify Place Stability Latrine

Financial Capital livelihood Attachment

Sense of

Yield Land Size Livelihood Type Security Capacity Migration Physical Capital Physical

Natural Capital Yield Land Size Livelihood Type

Natural Capital

Human Capital Legend for boxes:

Life Cycle Age Of Head # of skills Male-headed household

Female-headed household FUTURE SITUATION IN DELTAS FUTURE SITUATION

Income important for both genders Financial Capital Migrate Remittance Legend for colours:

Roof Important variable Livelihood Type Most influential (female-headed)

Physical Capital Physical Natural Capital Most influential (male-headed)

More information:

Lazar, A.N., Adams, H., Safra de Campos, R. Vincent, K., Nicholls, R.J., Adger, W.N., Rocky, M.H. 2018. How gender affects household decisions to adapt or migrate due to environmental risk: A Bayesian network model for coastal Bangladesh. In preparation.

48 49 OUR APPROACH

ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT

DECCMA Bangladesh team presents research outputs to Professor Shamsul Alam, Member Secretary, General Economics Division, Planning Commission, Bangladesh

50 51 RAISING THE PROFILE OF DELTA INPUTS TO THE COASTAL RESIDENTS WITH PARLIAMENTARIANS DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (VOLTA) BILL (VOLTA)

Rates of coastal erosion in the of affected districts have long Section 4(1)(i) of Act Authority to provide a Gulf of Guinea (including in the lobbied for coastal protection 961 (Coastal Developent framework for enhanced and Volta delta) are significant, and or resettlement options. The Authority), assented on coordinated economic and up to 8m per year in places. powerful visual imagery of January 2, 2018, states the social development of the In places where there are no flooding has been sufficient to requirement that “two persons districts and communities structural adaptations in place, motivate the Keta MP to take with relevant expertise in within the coastal areas of the rapidly eroding coastline up this issue in the District coastal development should be Ghana namely, which includes creates pressures for delta Assembly, where options are nominated as members of the the Volta delta. residents whose houses and currently being considered. board”. land are regularly flooded or In a submission, Hon. Humado destroyed. The DECCMA Ghana This work has been highlighted in Parliamentarian Hon. Clement noted that, since there are team, under the leadership of features in Canadian Geographic, Humado is the chair of the experts in coastal development Professor Kwasi Appeaning- Scidev.net, and presented to DECCMA Ghana National and population studies Addo, has been using drones the Forum of the Standing Expert Advisory Group and a in the tertiary institutions to monitor coastal erosion and Committee on Finance of the member of the Parliamentary (specifically the University flooding in the delta. Residents UNFCCC in September 2016. Select Committee on of Ghana), they should be Environment, Science and included on the Authority’s Technology. Board. Subsequently in section 4(1)(i) this was included. The Bill seeks to establish a Coastal Development ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

52 53 REQUESTED TO PROVIDE INPUTS TO PARTNERSHIP WITH THE WEST BENGAL POLICY AND HIGHLIGHTING DELTA STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT MIGRATION (MAHANADI) (INDIAN BENGAL DELTA)

DECCMA is committed to contains a separate chapter on The West Bengal State Department of Environment was significantly providing policy support to create gender. convinced of the importance of vulnerability, migration and adaptation the conditions for sustainable, to jointly host a stakeholder workshop with DECCMA (and this brought gender-sensitive adaptation in Through its engagement with increased attendance of other government departments). deltas. The DECCMA India team government, DECCMA has also in the Mahanadi delta, through provided inputs on climate consortium members Sansristi and change perspectives to the draft the Chilika Development Authority, versions of the National Policy on has actively engaged with Empowerment of Women 2016 stakeholders in the Odisha state and highlighted the importance government. of delta out-migration. Prior to DECCMA’s research it was As a result of this engagement, the assumed that migration only DECCMA India team was invited occurred in the western drought- to provide comments into the prone districts with migration to second Odisha State Action Plan the fertile delta land for agriculture on Climate Change 2018-23. Whilst near the coast. In fact all rural gender was minimally considered, areas in the Mahanadi are losing as a result of DECCMA’s inputs and people. research findings the plan now

More information: DECCMA’s contribution to the change in the content of the Action Plan (https://youtu.be/hGYu1qcSpAE) ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

54 Fishing boats in the Mahanadi delta (Photo: Andrew Allan) Indian national stakeholder workshop, November 2014 55 CAPACITY BUILDING DECCMA PhD graduates are continuing their research careers: for example Dr Kwame Owusu-Daaku is an assistant professor at the University of West Florida; and Dr Gregory Cooper has a postdoctoral research position at the Building the capacity of prizes that included support School of African and Oriental Studies, University of London. early career researchers has for international conference been a priority for DECCMA. attendance. Over two thirds Selected postgraduate theses include: Throughout the lifetime of the of conference papers by the project, 16 men and 17 women DECCMA India team were cc Gender, vulnerability to environmental change and migration in the Volta have undertaken postgraduate presented by early career delta, Ghana (PhD, Donatus Yaw Atiglo) studies for Masters or Doctoral researchers. degrees as part of the project, cc Sea defence systems as an adaptation to climate change in the Volta and many more have gained DECCMA team members have River delta, Ghana (PhD, Kwame Owusu-Daaku) experience as research won competitive funding assistants. to develop their research cc Investigation on polderization-induced water logging and feasible skills, either through full time adaptation measures within Dumuria Upazila under Khulna District, Specialist training has been studies, summer schools, or Bangladesh (MSc, Shanjida Noor) run under several themes, from exchange visits. Mohammad land cover mapping (by FAO), Rashed Bhuiyan was awarded cc Potentiality of sediment flux to offset relative sea level rise in the to input-output economics a Commonwealth Shared Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta (MSc, Mahmida Tul Urmi) (by the BC3 Basque Centre Scholarship to study for an MSc c Socio-ecological tipping points in world deltas (PhD, Gregory Cooper) for Climate Change), and the in Sustainable Development at c development of Bayesian the University of Exeter in the DECCMA research has helped to shape the ongoing agenda of sustainability network models and integrated 2018-19 academic year. Shouvik science and built the capacity for ongoing interdisciplinary engagement. assessment models (by the Das was selected to participate Continuing funded research, for example, focuses on the role of new University of Southampton). in the Hugo Observatory migrant populations in planning for safe and sustainable cities. This work Exchange and field visits have EDGE Summer School on is focussed on Chattogram in the delta of Bangladesh and involves the also taken place among all the environmental changes and University of Exeter with University of Dhaka DECCMA partners and research teams. migration. DECCMA India is funded by UK ESRC and DFID under their Development Frontiers coordinator Sumana Banerjee programme. Further global research on the fundamental relationship won an IDRC Climate Change Early career researchers have between migration, mobility and sustainability is being funded by an Leaders Award and spent three been encouraged to present international research programme on Transformations to Sustainability and weeks in the UK to develop their work in fora both within involves partners from Exeter, Dhaka and Ghana with international partners her project management and and outside the consortium. in the US, Sweden, Netherlands and Belgium. Poster competitions were research communication skills held during our six monthly to support climate change consortium meetings, with research in India. ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

56 57 CAPACITY BUILDING

Women Men

17 Total Researchers 16

TOTAL RESEARCHERS PER RESEARCH TEAM

8 Northern team 5

India 4

1 Ghana 3

Bangladesh 4 A DECCMA researcher presents his poster at the 4th consortium meeting, Southampton, January 2016

The Implication of Applying IPCC AR4 & AR5 Framework for Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in relation to Climate Change in the Indian Bengal Delta, India PhD RESEARCHERS Shouvik Das** and Amit Ghosh (**Presenting Author) School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, India DECCMA 4th Consortium Meeting , 2016 Northern team 4 Introduction Study Area Results & Discussion

Exposure • The term ‘Vulnerability’ is used by the disaster risk 0.8 0.7 AR4 Sandeshkhali-II reduction (DRR) community. 0.6 0.5 Basanti 0.4 • This is closer to the IPCC AR4’s conceptual framework Canning-II 0.3 India 4 of vulnerability to climate change. 0.2 Hingalganj 0.1 Jaynagar-II The AR5 introduces a new approach and terminology 0 • Gosaba which moves closer to the disaster risk concept. Sandeshkhali-I Adaptive Sensitivity Minakhan • Therefore differs from the current understanding of Capacity Kultali 1 vulnerability as expressed in the IPCC AR4. Canning-I Ghana • In this study 51 Community Development Blocks of 3 Indian Bengal Delta have been selected to make a comparison between these two frameworks. • Different indicators have been selected according to the Bangladesh 0 AR4 and AR5 frameworks to assess vulnerability (AR4) 1 and risk (AR5). Methodology Linking Concepts : AR4 & AR5

Vulnerability= f(E,S,AC) Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity [AR4, 2007] Maximum Temperature Pop 0-6 Year Literacy rate Minimum Temperature Female Population Pucca House Risk or Impact Average Precipitation SC & ST Population Road Density = f(H, E, V) Marginal Worker Health Institution Flood BPL Households Educational Institution or, f(H, E, S, AC) [AR5, 2014) Cyclone No Assets Electricity Riverine & Coastal Erosion No Land Sanitation Agricultural Dependency Safe drinking Water Hazard MSc RESEARCHERS Non Worker Crop Diversity 1 Gosaba Potential Impact AR5 Kutcha House Seed Store 0.8 Basanti Forest Degradation Fertilizer Depots 0.6 Patharpratima 0.4 Land Conversion Irrigated Area Kultali 0.2 Adaptive Hingalganj 0 Exposure Capacity Sandeshkhali-II Vulnerability Canning-II 4 IPCC Assessment Report 4 Sagar Northern team Namkhana 1 Jaynagar-II Exposure Sensitivity Hazard Vulnerability Population Density Agriculture Very High Source: IPCC AR5 Fisheries Vulnerability Risk India 0 Risk or Impact This work was carried out Livestock under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia IPCC Assessment Report 5 (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department Conclusion for International Development (DFiD) and the International Ghana Very Low 0 Development Research The efficacy of AR5 framework in assessing hazard specific Centre (IDRC), Canada. Falta Kulpi Sagar The views expressed in this Haroa Kultali Basanti Bagdah Gosaba Habra-I Baduria work are those of the Habra-II Rajarhat Barasat-I risk zone is found to be more suitable to correlate with Baruipur Deganga Kakdwip Gaighata Bongaon Sonarpur Barasat-II Basirhat-I Amdanga Bhangar-I Canning-I Basirhat-II Hasnabad Minakhan Jaynagar-I Bhangar-II Canning-II

Hingalganj creators and do no Jaynagar-II Namkhana Mograhat-I Bishnupur-I Mograhat-II Bishnupur-II Barrackpur-I Mandirbazar Barrackpur-II Swarupnagar

Mathurapur-I necessarily represent those Mathurapur-II Sandeshkhali-I Patharpratima Budge-Budge-I impacts such as human migration or in designing Sandeshkhali-II Budge-Budge-II of DFiD and IDRC or its Board of Governors. 4 Diamond Harbour-I

Diamond Harbour-II appropriate hazard specific adaptation options. s Bangladesh e North 24 Parganas South 24 Parganas

Source: adelphi/EURAC 2014 c Thakurpukur-Maheshtala n 3 e r

e th th Shouvik Das, Doctoral Fellow, DECCMA-India, Email ID: [email protected] f 1. Population & Housing Census, 2011, Census of India. 2. The Vulnerability Sourcebook, EURAC 2014. 3. 4 (2007) & 5 (2014) Assessment e Amit Ghosh, Doctoral Fellow, DECCMA-India, Email ID: [email protected] R Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WGII ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT Prize winning poster at the 4th consortium meeting, Southampton, January 2016. The paper 58 arising out of this research is currently under review with Science of the Total Environment. 59 JENNIFER AYAMGA, SHOUVIK DAS, PhD STUDENT, PhD STUDENT, JADAVPUR UNIVERSITY OF GHANA UNIVERSITY INDIA

As a DECCMA team member, “Working with DECCMA has Shouvik Das is a PhD student at learning reviews. He has played Jennifer’s research has centred been a great opportunity for me Jadavpur University in Kolkata, a key role in the DECCMA team, on integrated analysis of the to grow and learn. I have been investigating environmental change, with particular involvement in impact of climatic and non- mentored by highly qualified vulnerability and migration. There the migration work package. He climatic factors on agricultural scientists in different fields, are uncertainties in how the scale says “I have contributed towards livelihoods in the Volta who are passionate about and nature of environmental demographic analysis, production Delta. “The objective is to what they do. It has really had migration may vary in the future, of vulnerability and risk maps, understand agro-ecological a positive impact on me.” She and how this is different from survey design and implementation, systems in the delta in the has also had the opportunity migration driven by economic, qualitative and quantitative data context of transformational to attend training on modelling political or socio-cultural reasons. analysis, and preparation of working changes in climatic and non- techniques in Ghana, the UK “My PhD research attempts to papers and peer reviewed journal climatic systems. Based on this and Bangladesh. These training unpack this by tracking migrants articles.” understanding, I am developing sessions have helped her to refine from the sending areas to the a model that will predict the the theoretical foundation of her receiving areas through household Shouvik highlights that “being part impacts of climate change and research and develop essential surveys. The study combines of an international research project non-climatic determinants of technical skills. secondary data analysis along with like DECCMA project enabled agricultural livelihood in the application of geo-informatics and me to learn from and collaborate Volta delta. The model should Looking to the future, Jennifer’s modelling to develop appropriate with leading researchers in the help vulnerable people adapt long-term goal is to be a faculty criteria to examine the relationship fields of migration, vulnerability their practices to the changing member at a university in between the environment and and global environmental change scenarios of both climatic and Ghana, where she can use her migration”, he says. from international universities non-climatic determinants of skills to teach, research, and and institutions”. The knowledge, crop production and inform mentor students. “Through my As well as undertaking his own skills and network will likely help policy formulation,” she says. involvement with DECCMA I have research, Shouvik has had the him achieve his future ambition of To ensure that her research is developed a deep interest in opportunity to present my work in progressing his academic career used by the target audience, she understanding the vulnerabilities international conferences (including in an international university as has been adopting DECCMA’s of communities and related Adaptation Futures 2018 in Cape a post-doctoral researcher after approach of involving key livelihoods systems to climate Town), participate in a summer submission of his PhD. stakeholders from the beginning change and adaptive capacity for school on environmental changes to the end of her research resilience. I would be immensely and migration, and be a part of process. gratified to contribute to building several cross-CARIAA annual knowledge in these areas.” On her broader DECCMA experience, Jennifer says, ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

60 61 PROFESSIONAL TRAINING, OUTPUTS SUMANA BANERJEE, DECCMA INDIA (for updates see www.deccma.com)

COORDINATOR Publications

Adger, W.N., Safra de Campos, R. and Mortreux, C. 2018. Mobility, displacement and migration and their interactions with vulnerability and “Management appeals to me and projects but for personal use as adaptation to environmental risks. In McLeman, R and Gemenne, F. eds. working for a research project has well. I have been initiated into the Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration. provided an added bonus since the ways of motivating researchers to Routledge, 438p. scope of learning is vast – learning filter out key messages from their Adger, W. N. and Fortnam, M. 2018 Interactions of migration and population from the research, exchanging research and fine tuning those for dynamics with ecosystem services. In Schreckenberg, K., Mace, G. and lessons within team members, communication to stakeholders. I Poudyal, M. (eds). Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation: Trade-offs and and learning from the community. have also subsequently obtained my Governance. Routledge: London, 77-93. DECCMA has been a learn-as-you- PRINCE2 Foundation & Practitioner go experience where I have learnt 2017. Overall, I feel more confident Ahsan, M.S., Islam, M.A., Rahman, M.M. and Rahman, M.R. 2017. Shrimp a lot but often wondered if formal managing a research team after farmers’ competence and training needs on climate change adaptation. A case study from southwest coastal Bangladesh. Proceedings of the training could make things easier undergoing this training. International Conference on Climate Change 1, 1-9. for me. Climate change is affecting Akber, M.A., Islam, M.A., Ahmed, M., Rahman, M.M., and Rahman, M.R. 2017. In June 2017 I had the opportunity environmental systems globally and Changes of shrimp farming in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Aquaculture to undertake such training in project India being geographically diverse International 25(5), 1883-1889. management, communications is no exception. To tackle the wrath Appeaning-Addo, K., Jayson-Quashigah, P-N., Codjoe, S.N.A. and Martey, F. and research for impact during of climate change, research and 2018. Drone as a tool for coastal flood monitoring in the Volta Delta, Ghana. three weeks at the Universities of action projects are seeing the light Geoenvironmental Disasters 5, 17. Southampton and Exeter in the UK of the day. I wish to implement Appeaning-Addo, K., Nicholls, R.J., Codjoe, S.N.A. and Abu, M. 2018. A through an IDRC Climate Change the lessons from this activity by Biophysical and Socioeconomic Review of the Volta Delta, Ghana. Journal of Leaders Award. working as a project manager in Coastal Research 34(5), 1216-1226. other climate change research I have learnt ways how to better projects in the future.” Arto, I., García-Muros, X. Cazcarro, I., González-Eguino, M., Markandya, A. and work in teams and extract the best Hazra, S. 2019. The socioeconomic future of deltas in a changing environment. out of teamwork. This training Science of the Total Environment 648, 1284-1296. has opened more structured and Barnett, J. and Adger, W.N. 2018. Mobile worlds: Choice at the intersection of planned approaches which can be demographic and environmental change. Annual Review of Environmental adopted not only for managing Resources 43, 245–65.

Brown S., Nicholls R.J, Lázár A., Sugata H., Appeaning Addo K., Hornby D.D., Hill C., Haque A., Caesar J. and Tompkins E., 2018. What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C rise in global mean temperatures in vulnerable deltas? Regional Environmental Change 18(6), 1829-1842. ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

62 63 Cazcarro, I., Arto, I., Hazra, S., Bhattacharya, R.N., Adjei, P.O-W., Ofori- Janes, T., MacGrath, F., Macadam, I. and Jones, R. 2019. High-resolution Danson, P.K., Asenso, J.K., Amponsah, S.K., Khondker, B., Reihan, S. and climate projections for South Asia to inform climate impacts and adaptation Hosser, Z. 2018. Biophysical and socioeconomic state and links of deltaic studies in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Mahanadi deltas. Science of areas vulnerable to climate change: Volta (Ghana), Mahanadi (India) and the Total Environment 650(1), 1499-1520. Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (India and Bangladesh). Sustainability 10(3), 893. Kebede, A.S., Nicholls, R.J., Allan, A., Arto, I., Cazcarro, I., Hill, C.T., Hutton, C.W., Kay, S., Lázár, A.N., Macadam, I., Fernandes, J.A., Palmer, M., Suckall, N., Cooper, G., and Dearing, J., 2018. Modelling future safe and just Tompkins, E.L., Vincent, K. and Whitehead, P.W., 2018. Applying the global operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems, Science of the RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and Total Environment. participatory scenario approach. Science of the Total Environment 635, 659- 672. Cundill, G., Harvey, B., Tebboth, M., Cochrane, L., Currie-Alder, B., Vincent, K., Lawn, J., Nicholls, R.J., Scodanibbio, L., Prakash, A., New, M., Wester, Khan, S., Sinha, R., Whitehead, P., Sarkar, S. Li, J. and Futter, M.N. 2018. Flows P., Leone, M., Morchain, D., Ludi, E., DeMaria-Kinney, J., Khan, A. and and sediment dynamics in the Ganga River under present and future climate Landry, M.E., 2018. Large-Scale Transdisciplinary Collaboration for scenarios. Hydrological Sciences Journal 63(5), 763-782. Adaptation Research: Challenges and Insights. Global Challenges. Khan, M.W.R., Akber, M.A., Islam, M.A., Rahman, M.M. and Rahman, M.R. Duncan, J. M., E. L. Tompkins, J. Dash, and B. Tripathy. 2017. Resilience to 2018. Assessment of ecosystem service value in southwest Bangladesh. In hazards: rice farmers in the Mahanadi Delta, India. Ecology and Society Selim, S.S., Saha, S.K., Sultana, R. and Roberts, C (eds). The Environmental 22(4), 3. Sustainable Development Goals in Bangladesh, Routledge.

Dunn, F.E., Nicholls, R.J., Darby, S.E., Cohen, S., Zarfl, C. and Fekete, B.M. Lauria, V., Das, I., Hazra, S., Cazcarro, I., Arto, I., Kay, S., Ofori-Danson, P., 2018. Projections of historical and 21st century fluvial sediment delivery Ahmed, M., Hossain, A.R., Barange, M. and Fernandes, J.A. 2018. Importance to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Mahanadi and Volta delta. Science of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas. of the Total Environment 642, 105-116. Science of the Total Environment 640-641, 1566-1577.

Fernandes, J.A., 2018. Chapter 13: Climate change impacts, vulnerabilities Li, J., Whitehead, P.G., Appeaning-Addo, K., Amisigo, B., Macadam, I., Janes, and adaptations: Southern Asian fisheries in the Arabian Sea, Bay of T., Crossman, J., Nicholls, R.J., McCartney, M. and Rodda, H.J.E. 2018. Modeling Bengal and East Indian Ocean. In Barange, M., Bahri, T., Beveridge, M., future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio- Cochrane, K., Funge-Smith, S., Poulain, F. (Eds.). Impacts of Climate economic changes. Science of the Total Environment 637-638, 1069-1080. Change on fisheries and aquaculture: Synthesis of current knowledge, Li, J., Whitehead, P.G., Rodda, H., Macadam, I. and Sarkar, S. 2018. Simulating adaptation and mitigation options. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper 627. climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water Rome, FAO. quality in the Mahanadi river system, India. Science of the Total Environment Ghosh, A.K., Banerjee, S and Naaz, F. 2018. Adapting to climate change- 637-638, 907-917. induced migration. Women in the Indian Bengal delta. Economic and Morchain, D., Prati, G., Kelsey, F. and Ravon, L. 2015. What if gender became Political Weekly 53(17). an essential, standard element of Vulnerability Assessments? Gender and Hossain, M.A.R., Ahmed, M., Ojea, E. and Fernandes, J.A. 2018. Impacts Development 23(3), 481-496. and responses to environmental change in coastal livelihoods of south- Mortreux, C., Safra de Campos, R., Adger, W.N., Ghosh, T., Das, S., Adams, west Bangladesh. Science of the Total Environment 637-638, 954-970. H. and Hazra, S. 2018. Political economy of planned relocation: A model of Hossain, M.A.R., Das, I., Genevier, L., Hazra, S., Rahman, M., Barange, M. action and inaction in government responses. Global Environmental Change and Fernandes, J.A. 2018. Biology and fisheries of Hilsa shad in Bay of 50, 123-132. Bengal. Science of the Total Environment 651(2), 1720-1734. Mukhopadhyay, A., Ghosh, P., Chanda, A., Ghosh, A., Ghosh, S., Das, S. Ghosh, T. and Hazra, S. 2018. Threats to coastal communities of Mahanadi delta due Islam, M.A., Akber, M.A., Ahmed, M., Rahman, M.M. and Rahman, M.R. to imminent consequences of erosion-Present and near future. Science of the 2018. Climate change adaptations of shrimp farmers: a case study from Total Environment 637-638, 717-729. southwest coastal Bangladesh, Climate and Development. ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

64 65 Nicholls, R.J., Hutton, C.W., Adger, W.N. and Hanson, S.E. (eds) 2019. Whitehead, P., Bussi, G., Hossain, M.A., Dolk, M., Das, P., Comber, S., Peters, Deltas in the Anthropocene. Palgrave. R., Charles, K.J., Hope, R., and Hossain, R. 2018. Restoring water quality in the polluted Turag-Tongi-Balu river system, Dhaka: Modelling nutrient and Owusu-Daaku, K.N. 2018. (Mal) Adaptation opportunism: when other total coliform intervention strategies, Science of the Total Environment 633, interests take over stated or unintended climate change adaptation objectives (and their unintended effects). Local Environment. The 946-957. International Journal of Justice and Sustainability 23(9), 934-951. Working papers Pathak, D., Whitehead, P.G., Futter, M.N. and Sinha, R. 2018. Water quality assessment and catchment-scale nutrient flux modeling in the Adjei , P. O-W., Cazcarro, I., Arto, I., Ofori-Danson, P.K., Asenso, J.K., Ramganga River Basin in north India: An application of INCA model. Codjoe, S.N., Appeaning Addo, K. and Amponsah, S.K., 2018. Biophysical Science of the Total Environment 637-638, 201-215. and Socioeconomic State of the Volta Delta Region of Ghana from the Perspectives of Gender and Spatial Relations. Rao, N. and Hans, A. 2018. Gender and climate change. Emergent issues for research, policy and practice. Economic and Political Weekly 53(17). Allan, A., Hissen, N.F., Ghosh, A., Samling, C.L., Tagoe, C. A., Nelson, W., Mensah, A., Salehin, M., Mondal, Md. S., Spray, C. 2015. WP1 – Stakeholder Rahman, M., Dustegir, M., Karim, R., Haque, A., Nicholls, R.J., Darby, Mapping Consolidated Fast Track. S.E., Nakagawa, H., Hossain, M., Dunn, F.E. and Akter, M. 2018. Recent sediment flux to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta system. Atiglo, Y. and Codjoe, S. 2015. Migration in the Volta Delta: a review of the Science of the Total Environment 643, 1054-1064. literature.

Rahman Khan, M.W., Akber, M.A., Islam, M.A., Rahman, M.M. and Rahman, Cazcarro, I. and Arto, I. 2016. Hybrid (survey and non-survey) methods for M.R. 2018. Assessment of Ecosystem Service Value in Southwest Coastal the construction of subnational/regional IO tables with insights for their Bangladesh. In Selim, S.S., Saha, S.K., Sultana, R. and Roberts, C. eds. construction for Deltaic environments. The Environmental Sustainable Development Goals in Bangladesh. Begum, A. 2017. Review of migration and resettlement in Bangladesh: effects Routledge. of climate change and its impact on gender roles. Saha, D., Hossain, M.S.S., Mondal, M.S. and Rahman, R. 2016. Agricultural Bhuiyan, M.R.A and Siddiqui, T. 2015. Migration in the Ganga-Meghna- Adaptation Practices in Coastal Bangladesh: Response to Climate Brahmaputra Delta: a review of the literature. Change Impacts, Journal of Modern Science and Technology 4(1), 63-74. Chapman, A., Tompkins, E.L., Vincent, K., Day, S. 2016. A framework for the Suckall, N., Tompkins, E.L., Nicholls, R.J., Kebede, A.S., Lázár, A.N., design and evaluation of adaptation pathways in large river deltas. Vincent, K., Allan, A., Chapman, A., Rahman, R., Ghosh, T., Hutton, C. and Mensah, A. 2018. A framework for identifying and selecting long term Dey, S., Ghosh, A.K. and Hazra, S. 2016. Review of West Bengal State adaptation policy directions for deltas. Science of the Total Environment Adaptation Policies, Indian Bengal Delta. 633, 946-957. Ghosh, A.K., Hazra, S. and Dey, S. 2016. Review of national adaptation policies, Tompkins, E.L., Vincent, K., Nicholls, R.J. and Suckall, N. 2018. India. Documenting the state of adaptation for the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement. WIREs Climate Change c545. Haq, I., Omar, M.A.T., Zahra, Q.A. and Jahan, I., 2018. Evaluation of Adaptation Policies in GBM Delta of Bangladesh. Welch, A.C, Nicholls, R.J. and Lázár, A.N. 2017. Evolving deltas: Coevolution with engineered interventions. Elementa 5, 49. Hazra, S., Cazcarro, I., Arto, I., Bhattacharya, R. 2016. Biophysical and Socioeconomic State of the Mahanadi Delta Region of India from the Whitehead, P.G., Jin, L., Macadam, I., Janes, T., Sarkar, S., Rodda, H.J.E., Perspectives of Gender and Spatial Relations. Sinha, R. and Nicholls, R.J. 2018. Modelling impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hazra, S., Dey, S. and Ghosh, A.K. 2016. Review of Odisha State Adaptation Hooghly and Mahanadi river systems in India and Bangladesh. Science of Policies, Mahanadi Delta. the Total Environment 636, 1362-1372. Hazra, S., Cazcarro, I., Arto, I. and Bhattacharya, R.N., 2018. Biophysical and Socioeconomic State of the Indian Bengal Delta Region of India from the Perspectives of Gender and Spatial Relations. ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

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68 69 DECCMA, 2016. Examples of Adaptation in the GBM Delta, Bangladesh DECCMA, 2018. Crab-fattening in the Indian Bengal delta

DECCMA, 2016. Examples of Adaptation in the Indian Bengal Delta, DECCMA, 2017. Bee-keeping for livelihoods in the Indian Bengal delta GBM, India. DECCMA, 2017. Sustainable livelihoods in the Volta delta, Ghana DECCMA, 2016. Examples of Adaptation in the Mahanadi Delta, India. DECCMA, 2017. Economic modelling in Bangladesh DECCMA, 2016. Examples of Adaptation in the Volta Delta, Ghana. DECCMA, 2017. Winfred Nelson on stakeholder influence and interest in Hazra, S., Cazcarro, I., Arto, I., Bhattacharya, R. 2016. The economy of the Ghana Indian Bengal Delta (IBD) Delta. DECCMA, 2016. Out-migration and effects on women in the Mahanadi delta Hazra, S., Cazcarro, I., Arto, I., Bhattacharya, R. 2016. The economy of the DECCMA, 2016. Characteristics of migration in Satjalia Island in the Indian Mahanadi Delta. Bengal delta

Photostories DECCMA, 2016. Taking a gender-sensitive approach to research on migration and adaptation Ava, S.K., Uddin, M.S., Rahman, A., Hossain, D., Kumar, S., Mira, S.S. and Haque, M.M.E. 2017. “Life is cruel here”. Stories from forced migrants in DECCMA, 2016. Adaptation in Bangladesh and how DECCMA is informing Chittagong, Bangladesh. policy processes

Banerjee, S., Banerjee, S., Samal, R.N. and Ghosh, T. 2018. “We need to DECCMA, 2016. Coastal monitoring in Ghana with UAVs give our citizens a safe place to stay”. How government is relocating coastal communities affected by loss of land in the Mahanadi delta, DECCMA, 2016. Volta coastal flooding drone footage (February 2016) India. DECCMA, 2016. Working as part of a multi-disciplinary research consortium: Banerjee, S., Ghosh, T. and Thakur, S. 2018. Beekeeping and crab DECCMA experiences fattening. Alternative livelihoods in the Indian Bengal delta. DECCMA, 2016. How DECCMA is investigating climate change and adaptation Naaz, F., Das, S. and Ghosh, T. 2017. Living with change. Adapting to in Bangladesh climate change in the Indian Bengal delta. DECCMA, 2015. DECCMA fieldtrip in the Volta delta, Ghana Vincent, K. and Adiku, P. 2017. To migrate or not to migrate? That is the question. A case of the Volta delta. DECCMA, 2014. Deltas in distress (India)

Vincent, K. and Banerjee, S. 2018. The aftermath of Aila. The lingering DECCMA, 2014. Climate change impact in the Volta delta effects of a tropical cyclone in the Indian Bengal delta. DECCMA, 2014. Climate change in the GBM delta, Bangladesh Vincent, K. 2018. Masters research in the Indian Bengal delta. Reflections on capacity building opportunities within a collaborative international Infographic research project. DECCMA, 2018. Deltas: Present and Future Video clips Other DECCMA, 2018. Unpacking resettlement: A journey from Satavaya to Bagapatia Delta Portal: Data, Information and Knowledge for Deltas

DECCMA, 2018. Investigating migration and adaptation in the Indian DECCMA, 2018. Climate change, migration and adaptation in deltas. Key Bengal delta findings from the DECCMA project.

DECCMA, 2018. Experiences of working in a consortium ENGAGEMENT AND IMPACT ENGAGEMENT

70 71 DECCMA TEAM MEMBERS

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72 73 This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department For International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of DFiD and IDRC or its Board of Governors.

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