A Random-Field Approach to Inference in Large Models of Network Formation Michael P. Leung∗ July 11, 2015 Note: Superceded by “A Weak Law for Moments of Pairwise-Stable Networks” and “Normal Approximation in Large Network Models” Abstract. We establish a law of large numbers and central limit theorem for a large class of network statistics, enabling inference in models of network for- mation with only a single network observation. Our model allows the decision of an individual (node) to form associations (links) to depend quite generally on the endogenous structure of the network. Formally, we prove that certain node-level functions of the network constitute α-mixing random fields, objects for which central limit theorems exist. The key assumptions are that (1) nodes endowed with similar attributes prefer to link (homophily); (2) there is enough “diversity” in node attributes; and (3) certain latent sets of nodes that are uncon- nected form their links independently (“isolated societies” do not “coordinate”). Our results enable the estimation of certain network moments that are useful for inference. We leverage these moments to construct moment inequalities that define bounds on the identified set. Relative to feasible alternatives, these bounds are sharper and computationally tractable under weaker restrictions on network externalities. JEL Codes: C31, C57, D85, L14 Keywords: social networks, network formation, multiple equilibria, large- market asymptotics, random fields, α-mixing ∗Department of Economics, Stanford University. E-mail:
[email protected]. I thank my advisors, Arun Chandrasekhar, Matt Jackson, and especially Han Hong, for their advice, criticism, and support and many helpful discussions. I also thank Marinho Bertanha, Tim Bresnahan, Michael Dickstein, Jessie Li, Xing Li, Josh Mollner, Frank Wolak, and participants at the Stanford structural I.O.