Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses 1-1-2010 Confirmation Bias and Related Errors Geoffrey Ludlow Borthwick Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Borthwick, Geoffrey Ludlow, "Confirmation Bias and Related Errors" (2010). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 128. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.128 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible:
[email protected]. Confirmation Bias and Related Errors by Geoffrey Ludlow Borthwick A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Systems Science: Psychology Dissertation Committee: Thomas Kindermann, Chair Barry F. Anderson Todd E. Bodner Wayne Wakeland John Settle Portland State University © 2010 i ABSTRACT This study attempted to replicate and extend the study of Doherty, Mynatt, Tweney, and Schiavo (1979), which introduced what is here called the Bayesian conditionals selection paradigm. The present study used this paradigm (and a script similar to that used by Doherty et al.) to explore confirmation bias and related errors that can appear in both search and integration in probability revision. Despite selection differences and weak manipulations, this study provided information relevant to four important questions. First, by asking participants to estimate the values of the conditional probabilities they did not learn, this study was able to examine the use of “intuitive conditionals”.