Bias Miguel Delgado-Rodrı´Guez, Javier Llorca
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Confirmation Bias I (B) (3) - P
This document is made available through the declassification efforts and research of John Greenewald, Jr., creator of: The Black Vault The Black Vault is the largest online Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) document clearinghouse in the world. The research efforts here are responsible for the declassification of hundreds of thousands of pages released by the U.S. Government & Military. Discover the Truth at: http://www.theblackvault.com . ., NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY FORT GEORGE G. MEADE, MARYLAND 20755-6000 FOIA Case: 104412 25 May 2018 JOHN GREENEWALD 27305 W LIVE OAK ROAD SUITE 1203 CASTAIC CA 91384 Dear Mr. Greenewald: This responds to your Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request of 23 May 2018 for Intellipedia pages on ESP and/or Extrasensory Perception. For purposes of this request and based on the information you provided in your letter, you are considered an 'all other" requester. As such, you are allowed 2 hours of search time and the duplication of 100 pages at no cost. There are no assessable fees for this request. Your request has been processed under the FO lA. For your information, NSA provides a service of common concern for the Intelligence Community (IC) by serving as the executive agent for Intelink. As such, NSA provides technical services that enable users to access and share information with peers and stakeholders across the IC and DoD. Intellipedia pages are living documents that may be originated by any user organization, and any user organization may contribute to or edit pages after their origination. Intellipedia pages should not be considered the final, coordinated position of the ICon any particular subject. -
Bias and Fairness in NLP
Bias and Fairness in NLP Margaret Mitchell Kai-Wei Chang Vicente Ordóñez Román Google Brain UCLA University of Virginia Vinodkumar Prabhakaran Google Brain Tutorial Outline ● Part 1: Cognitive Biases / Data Biases / Bias laundering ● Part 2: Bias in NLP and Mitigation Approaches ● Part 3: Building Fair and Robust Representations for Vision and Language ● Part 4: Conclusion and Discussion “Bias Laundering” Cognitive Biases, Data Biases, and ML Vinodkumar Prabhakaran Margaret Mitchell Google Brain Google Brain Andrew Emily Simone Parker Lucy Ben Elena Deb Timnit Gebru Zaldivar Denton Wu Barnes Vasserman Hutchinson Spitzer Raji Adrian Brian Dirk Josh Alex Blake Hee Jung Hartwig Blaise Benton Zhang Hovy Lovejoy Beutel Lemoine Ryu Adam Agüera y Arcas What’s in this tutorial ● Motivation for Fairness research in NLP ● How and why NLP models may be unfair ● Various types of NLP fairness issues and mitigation approaches ● What can/should we do? What’s NOT in this tutorial ● Definitive answers to fairness/ethical questions ● Prescriptive solutions to fix ML/NLP (un)fairness What do you see? What do you see? ● Bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store ● Bananas on shelves What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store ● Bananas on shelves ● Bunches of bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas -
The Effects of the Intuitive Prosecutor Mindset on Person Memory
THE EFFECTS OF THE INTUITIVE PROSECUTOR MINDSET ON PERSON MEMORY DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Richard J. Shakarchi, B.S., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2002 Dissertation Committee: Professor Marilynn Brewer, Adviser Approved by Professor Gifford Weary ________________________________ Adviser Professor Neal Johnson Department of Psychology Copyright by Richard J. Shakarchi 2002 ABSTRACT The intuitive prosecutor metaphor of human judgment is a recent development within causal attribution research. The history of causal attribution is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on explanations of attributional biases. The evolution of such explanations is traced through a purely-cognitive phase to the more modern acceptance of motivational explanations for attributional biases. Two examples are offered of how a motivational explanatory framework of attributional biases can account for broad patterns of information processing biases. The intuitive prosecutor metaphor is presented as a parallel explanatory framework for interpreting attributional biases, whose motivation is based on a threat to social order. The potential implications for person memory are discussed, and three hypotheses are developed: That intuitive prosecutors recall norm- violating information more consistently than non-intuitive prosecutors (H1); that this differential recall may be based on differential (biased) encoding of behavioral information (H2); and that this differential recall may also be based on biased retrieval of information from memory rather than the result of a reporting bias (H3). A first experiment is conducted to test the basic recall hypothesis (H1). A second experiment is conducted that employs accountability in order to test the second and third hypotheses. -
Outcome Reporting Bias in COVID-19 Mrna Vaccine Clinical Trials
medicina Perspective Outcome Reporting Bias in COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Clinical Trials Ronald B. Brown School of Public Health and Health Systems, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L3G1, Canada; [email protected] Abstract: Relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction measures in the evaluation of clinical trial data are poorly understood by health professionals and the public. The absence of reported absolute risk reduction in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials can lead to outcome reporting bias that affects the interpretation of vaccine efficacy. The present article uses clinical epidemiologic tools to critically appraise reports of efficacy in Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine clinical trials. Based on data reported by the manufacturer for Pfzier/BioNTech vaccine BNT162b2, this critical appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 95.1%; 95% CI, 90.0% to 97.6%; p = 0.016; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.59% to 0.83%; p < 0.000. For the Moderna vaccine mRNA-1273, the appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 94.1%; 95% CI, 89.1% to 96.8%; p = 0.004; absolute risk reduction, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.97% to 1.32%; p < 0.000. Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. Reporting absolute risk reduction measures is essential to prevent outcome reporting bias in evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy. Keywords: mRNA vaccine; COVID-19 vaccine; vaccine efficacy; relative risk reduction; absolute risk reduction; number needed to vaccinate; outcome reporting bias; clinical epidemiology; critical appraisal; evidence-based medicine Citation: Brown, R.B. -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
Confirmation Bias and Related Errors
Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses 1-1-2010 Confirmation Bias and Related Errors Geoffrey Ludlow Borthwick Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Borthwick, Geoffrey Ludlow, "Confirmation Bias and Related Errors" (2010). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 128. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.128 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. Confirmation Bias and Related Errors by Geoffrey Ludlow Borthwick A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Systems Science: Psychology Dissertation Committee: Thomas Kindermann, Chair Barry F. Anderson Todd E. Bodner Wayne Wakeland John Settle Portland State University © 2010 i ABSTRACT This study attempted to replicate and extend the study of Doherty, Mynatt, Tweney, and Schiavo (1979), which introduced what is here called the Bayesian conditionals selection paradigm. The present study used this paradigm (and a script similar to that used by Doherty et al.) to explore confirmation bias and related errors that can appear in both search and integration in probability revision. Despite selection differences and weak manipulations, this study provided information relevant to four important questions. First, by asking participants to estimate the values of the conditional probabilities they did not learn, this study was able to examine the use of “intuitive conditionals”. -
Communication Science to the Public
David M. Berube North Carolina State University ▪ HOW WE COMMUNICATE. In The Age of American Unreason, Jacoby posited that it trickled down from the top, fueled by faux-populist politicians striving to make themselves sound approachable rather than smart. (Jacoby, 2008). EX: The average length of a sound bite by a presidential candidate in 1968 was 42.3 seconds. Two decades later, it was 9.8 seconds. Today, it’s just a touch over seven seconds and well on its way to being supplanted by 140/280- character Twitter bursts. ▪ DATA FRAMING. ▪ When asked if they truly believe what scientists tell them, NEW ANTI- only 36 percent of respondents said yes. Just 12 percent expressed strong confidence in the press to accurately INTELLECTUALISM: report scientific findings. ▪ ROLE OF THE PUBLIC. A study by two Princeton University researchers, Martin TRENDS Gilens and Benjamin Page, released Fall 2014, tracked 1,800 U.S. policy changes between 1981 and 2002, and compared the outcome with the expressed preferences of median- income Americans, the affluent, business interests and powerful lobbies. They concluded that average citizens “have little or no independent influence” on policy in the U.S., while the rich and their hired mouthpieces routinely get their way. “The majority does not rule,” they wrote. ▪ Anti-intellectualism and suspicion (trends). ▪ Trump world – outsiders/insiders. ▪ Erasing/re-writing history – damnatio memoriae. ▪ False news. ▪ Infoxication (CC) and infobesity. ▪ Aggregators and managed reality. ▪ Affirmation and confirmation bias. ▪ Negotiating reality. ▪ New tribalism is mostly ideational not political. ▪ Unspoken – guns, birth control, sexual harassment, race… “The amount of technical information is doubling every two years. -
Methods Guide for Medical Test Reviews
Chapter 5 Assessing Risk of Bias as a Domain of Quality in Medical Test Studies P. Lina Santaguida, B.Sc.P.T., Ph.D., M.Sc., McMaster University Crystal M. Riley, M.A., Nanyang Technological University, Singapore David B. Matchar, M.D., Duke University; Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore Abstract Assessing methodological quality is a necessary activity for any systematic review, including those evaluating the evidence for studies of medical test performance. Judging the overall quality of an individual study involves examining the size of the study, the direction and degree of findings, the relevance of the study, and the risk of bias in the form of systematic error, lack of internal validity, and other study limitations. In this chapter of the Methods Guide for Medical Test Reviews, we focus on the evaluation of risk of bias in the form of systematic error in an individual study as a distinctly important component of quality in studies of medical test performance, specifically in the context of estimating test performance (sensitivity and specificity). We make the following recommendations to systematic reviewers: (1) When assessing study limitations that are relevant to the test under evaluation, reviewers should select validated criteria that examine the risk of systematic error, (2) categorizing the risk of bias for individual studies as “low,” “medium,” or “high” is a useful way to proceed, and (3) methods for determining an overall categorization for the study limitations should be established a priori and documented clearly. Introduction Medical tests are indispensable for clinicians in that they provide information that goes beyond what is available by clinical evaluation alone. -
UC Riverside UC Riverside Electronic Theses and Dissertations
UC Riverside UC Riverside Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Cultural Differences in the Prevalence of Stereotype Activation and Explanations of Crime: Does Race Color Perception? Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7km372cn Author Briones, Lilia Rebeca Publication Date 2010 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA RIVERSIDE Cultural Differences in the Prevalence of Stereotype Activation and Explanations of Crime: Does Race Color Perception? A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology by Lilia Rebeca Briones March 2011 Dissertation Committee: Dr. Carolyn B. Murray, Chairperson Dr. Daniel Ozer Dr. Kate Sweeny The dissertation of Lilia R. Briones is approved: ________________________ ______________ Dr. Carolyn Murray (Chair) Date ________________________ ______________ Dr. Daniel Ozer Date ________________________ ______________ Dr. Kate Sweeny Date University of California, Riverside Acknowledgements There are so many people I would like to thank for their love and support throughout this journey. First, I want to thank God for all of the blessings that have allowed me to make it to this point. The love and support of my family has been the most abundant of those blessings and my appreciation cannot be put into words but I will try to express it here. Papi, thank you for reminding me to expect the curveballs, for your unwavering support, and your unconditional love. Mom, your love and prayers have sustained me and I am forever grateful for your encouragement. Thank you both for reminding me how to eat an elephant. Alita, you are my biggest cheerleader and you always have my back! Thanks for letting me vent with you when times got tough, I would not have made it without you. -
Infographic I.10
The Digital Health Revolution: Leaving No One Behind The global AI in healthcare market is growing fast, with an expected increase from $4.9 billion in 2020 to $45.2 billion by 2026. There are new solutions introduced every day that address all areas: from clinical care and diagnosis, to remote patient monitoring to EHR support, and beyond. But, AI is still relatively new to the industry, and it can be difficult to determine which solutions can actually make a difference in care delivery and business operations. 59 Jan 2021 % of Americans believe returning Jan-June 2019 to pre-coronavirus life poses a risk to health and well being. 11 41 % % ...expect it will take at least 6 The pandemic has greatly increased the 65 months before things get number of US adults reporting depression % back to normal (updated April and/or anxiety.5 2021).4 Up to of consumers now interested in telehealth going forward. $250B 76 57% of providers view telehealth more of current US healthcare spend % favorably than they did before COVID-19.7 could potentially be virtualized.6 The dramatic increase in of Medicare primary care visits the conducted through 90% $3.5T telehealth has shown longevity, with rates in annual U.S. health expenditures are for people with chronic and mental health conditions. since April 2020 0.1 43.5 leveling off % % Most of these can be prevented by simple around 30%.8 lifestyle changes and regular health screenings9 Feb. 2020 Apr. 2020 OCCAM’S RAZOR • CONJUNCTION FALLACY • DELMORE EFFECT • LAW OF TRIVIALITY • COGNITIVE FLUENCY • BELIEF BIAS • INFORMATION BIAS Digital health ecosystems are transforming• AMBIGUITY BIAS • STATUS medicineQUO BIAS • SOCIAL COMPARISONfrom BIASa rea• DECOYctive EFFECT • REACTANCEdiscipline, • REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY • SYSTEM JUSTIFICATION • BACKFIRE EFFECT • ENDOWMENT EFFECT • PROCESSING DIFFICULTY EFFECT • PSEUDOCERTAINTY EFFECT • DISPOSITION becoming precise, preventive,EFFECT • ZERO-RISK personalized, BIAS • UNIT BIAS • IKEA EFFECT and • LOSS AVERSION participatory. -
Prior Belief Innuences on Reasoning and Judgment: a Multivariate Investigation of Individual Differences in Belief Bias
Prior Belief Innuences on Reasoning and Judgment: A Multivariate Investigation of Individual Differences in Belief Bias Walter Cabral Sa A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Education University of Toronto O Copyright by Walter C.Si5 1999 National Library Bibliothèque nationaIe of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographic Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395, rue WePington Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Ottawa ON KtA ON4 Canada Canada Your file Votre rëfërence Our fi& Notre réterence The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive Licence allowing the exclusive permettant à la National Libraq of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sell reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microforni, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiche/film, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor subçtantial extracts fi-om it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Prior Belief Influences on Reasoning and Judgment: A Multivariate Investigation of Individual Differences in Belief Bias Doctor of Philosophy, 1999 Walter Cabral Sa Graduate Department of Education University of Toronto Belief bias occurs when reasoning or judgments are found to be overly infiuenced by prior belief at the expense of a normatively prescribed accommodation of dl the relevant data. -
John Collins, President, Forensic Foundations Group
On Bias in Forensic Science National Commission on Forensic Science – May 12, 2014 56-year-old Vatsala Thakkar was a doctor in India but took a job as a convenience store cashier to help pay family expenses. She was stabbed to death outside her store trying to thwart a theft in November 2008. Bloody Footwear Impression Bloody Tire Impression What was the threat? 1. We failed to ask ourselves if this was a footwear impression. 2. The appearance of the impression combined with the investigator’s interpretation created prejudice. The accuracy of our analysis became threatened by our prejudice. Types of Cognitive Bias Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases | Accessed on April 14, 2014 Anchoring or focalism Hindsight bias Pseudocertainty effect Illusory superiority Levels-of-processing effect Attentional bias Hostile media effect Reactance Ingroup bias List-length effect Availability heuristic Hot-hand fallacy Reactive devaluation Just-world phenomenon Misinformation effect Availability cascade Hyperbolic discounting Recency illusion Moral luck Modality effect Backfire effect Identifiable victim effect Restraint bias Naive cynicism Mood-congruent memory bias Bandwagon effect Illusion of control Rhyme as reason effect Naïve realism Next-in-line effect Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect Illusion of validity Risk compensation / Peltzman effect Outgroup homogeneity bias Part-list cueing effect Belief bias Illusory correlation Selective perception Projection bias Peak-end rule Bias blind spot Impact bias Semmelweis