France 2017 elections in perspective Episode 2: The left wing primaries, the true kick-off of the Presidential campaign January 30, 2017 There is no turning back. Now with a designated champion for the Socialist Party, the five major Benoit Hamon, the radical Growing populism outsider of the left wing candidates running primaries, has surprised France has not been left unscathed by the profound anti-establishment for the Presidency everyone by defeating Manuel movements that have hit the UK and USA are in the starting Valls, former Prime Minister, – and which threaten other European and Arnaud Montebourg, countries like Italy, the Netherlands or blocks. Only three of former Minister of Economy. A even Germany. Hamon’s anti-austerity them – Le Pen (far - repeat of what François Fillon stance has probably been fed by this trend in the left primaries but, moving right), Fillon (right) did two months ago when forward in the Presidential campaign, defeating Nicolas Sarkozy and other truly populist candidates will draw and Macron (center Alain Juppé. more benefits from it: Jean-Luc left), seem capable of The right-wing primaries Mélenchonon the far-left or Marine Le making it to the gathered over 4 million voters Pen on the far-right. but only 2 million voters two-person showed up for the left-wing Macron, the real winner second round. primaries, calling into question of a primary that wasn’t the real legitimacy of the The wild card his own Mélenchon (far-left) designated candidate of the Socialist Party. While the left’s primary debate was should however not mired in idealist proposals, Emmanuel be forgotten, as well The decline of the Macron, former Minister of Economy who refused to be part of that process, as veteran Bayrou Socialist Party has continued to generate strong enthusiasm, gathering thousands at each (center-right), who Similar to Bernie Sanders in the USA or of his meetings. With a liberal- has not decided yet Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, Benoit Hamon conservative candidate on his right and a has radicalized the debate within the radical-utopian-socialist on his left, not to whether he will run. Socialist Party: his utopian vision has mention the extremists of both sides, Both recent prevailed over a pragmatic social Macron has a wide space to occupy in the democratic approach. The unsuccessful center. Over the past weeks, he has been primaries have policies of the past years, both to extremely smart at successfully filling decrease unemployment or to encourage that gap. There is one question shown that in France, business, has fed resentment towards remaining though: will François Bayrou, as elsewhere, the this approach and has materialized in the the historic representative of the center- very low turnout for the left wing right run for the Presidency himself or unexpected is likely primaries. It could well be that announce his support for Fillon, or for to become the Hollande’s disastrously unpopular Macron? The coming weeks, revealing presidency has not only been fatal to his the final details of the main candidates’ routine. own political career but could also be programs, will be critical, and the French fatal to the Socialist Party. roller coaster is not over yet. © Brunswick 2017 | 2 Brunswick Group France 2017 elections in perspective Left to right, the contenders FAR-LEFT CENTER FAR-RIGHT Jean-Luc Yannick Benoit Emmanuel François François Marine Mélenchon Jadot Hamon Macron Bayrou* Fillon Le Pen (*): unclear if he will run himself or support one of the other candidates Brunswick Group France 2017 elections in perspective The 5 main contenders Hamon, the socialist utopian A rugby fan, Hamon, 49, began immigration into Europe. his political career in the 1980s He also strongly advocates a greener economy, making the energy transition as a student activist. towards renewable energies the highest He got involved in the Socialist Party priority. through the Young Socialist Hamon also wants to reshuffle the Movement of which he became French institutions in order to narrow President. Throughout his career, he the gap between politicians and citizens has dealt with three parallel political and involve the people in the decision lives: Within the Socialist Party (being making process, creating de facto a 6th one of the leaders of its left wing with Republic in France. Arnaud Montebourg – “les frondeurs”, the rebellious leading the socialist His challenge in the campaign opposition to Hollande’s policy in the will be to avoid a complete disaster for second term of his mandate), as an the Socialist Party, after Hollande’s elected official (member of the withdrawal. He desperately needs to reunite the left if he wants to avoid a European Parliament, member of a th local authority in the Greater Paris humiliating 4 position in the first round Region, and currently a member of but so far he has received a blunt “no” the Lower House of the French from Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Parliament) and as an active part of the Government (as a member of Martine Aubry’s staff when she was Minister of Labor and a Minister himself at the beginning of Hollande’s mandate, in charge of Social Economy, and later on – although briefly – in charge of Education). More spending, more State interventionism and a new Constitution His program outlines radical ideas such as a monthly universal basic income of about €750 per person, the recruitment of thousands of new civil servants (including teachers and policemen), an increase of civil servants’ wages and of the legal minimum wage for all employees by 10%, and a 32-hour working week. Very unclear when it comes to the financing of those measures, he proposes to tax industrial robots, to fight against tax evasion by large multinational companies, to strengthen constraints on stock options and to reinforce taxation on households’ assets. He also proposes to legalize marijuana, to RATHER LOW cancel the inter-EU debts of Member Likelihood of States, to create a “humanitarian visa” for reaching the refugees, aimed at facilitating second round: Brunswick Group France 2017 elections in perspective The 5 main contenders Fillon, the conservative marathon-runner François Fillon, 62, is a career corporate tax rate (10bn€) from its Gathering large support for politician, with four decades of current level –33.3% –to around 25%, a implementing his radical reforms and rate that is much closer to the EU demonstrating that these are experience. Elected the average. In addition, the French “ISF”, or financially realistic will be critical. youngest MP at age 27 in 1981, “Solidarity Tax on Wealth,” would be Since his victory at the right-wing he has held offices at all levels of scrapped in order to encourage primaries last November, Fillon has the political landscape, several investments in SMEs. He is betting that been violently attacked by many due times as Minister (incl. Labor he will boost the economy in the first two to his “ultra-conservatism”, “putting years of his mandate by focusing on the French social welfare system at and Education) until his businesses rather than households and stake”. appointment as Sarkozy’s pushing through corporate tax relief. The rise of Emmanuel Macron is a real Prime Minister (2007-2012). In order to restore France’s public threat for Fillon as they are both finances and structural growth, Fillon’s fighting to attract centrist voters. A right-wing centrist, he holds free- ambition is to complete a deep and market and pro-business ideas and Fillon, who has always promoted high radical state reform. To do so, he ethical standards, is facing a scandal has built a reputation for being a proposes a cut of 100 billion euros in cautious but determined reformer following revelations by the satirical public expenditures over the next 5 weekly Le Canard Enchaîné that his (he carried out two pension reforms). years. His flagship proposal is to cut Claiming his catholic faith and wife might have been employed as his 500,000 public jobs within 5 years parliamentary assistant without doing culture, he is a moderate European (roughly a 10% cut). In the same vein, he (he voted against the Maastricht any proper work. Those allegations also wishes to align the pension status of have prompted France's financial Treaty) and embraces a traditional public sector workers with that of private stance on social issues. Discreet and prosecutor to open a preliminary sector workers by pushing back the investigation. May be a fatal blow to scandal-free, at least until this recent retirement age from 62 to 65. month (see below), Fillon has a style his candidacy. which contrasts with that of the A pragmatic foreign affairs extrovert and buoyant Sarkozy. policy François Fillon advocates a shock Fillon has not been very forthcoming on therapy program for the French foreign policy so far. Defending a “Europe economy and a pragmatic stance on of nations to ensure sovereignty”: Fillon foreign affairs. The vision behind this does not want more integration at large program is his alarmist diagnosis of the in Europe and believes that the powers French economy, which he described of the European Council should be back in 2007 as being “bankrupt”. With increased vs. the European Commission. “liberation of the economy” at the top of He believes that the revival of the his program, Fillon advocates a profound Franco-German relationship depends on change of the business environment, France’s ability to reform itself and based on increased flexibility of the labor therefore to regain economic credibility market and significant tax breaks for in the eyes of its German partner. Fillon companies. advocates dialogue with Russia which he believes is the only way to put an end to In-depth reform of the French the war in Syria and defeat ISIS.