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Download the Pdf Version of Catella Property FRANCE Market Trends MARCH - 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 4 Main trends 5 Summary data THE ÎLE-DE-FRANCE OFFICE RENTAL MARKET 8 Submarkets 10 Take-up strongly impacted by the health crisis and a cautious attitude among prospective users 19 An overall rise in vacancy rates 22 An increase in large-surface supply under construction 23 Rental values are difficult to analyse, due to the low number of transactions THE FRENCH INVESTMENT MARKET 28 Following 2019 record performances, there has been a decline in all value ranges, especially for deals of over € 300 million 32 New properties: increased investment volumes in vacant buildings and speculative acquisitions 33 Sharper sales slump for portfolios than for single assets 34 Decrease in investment in all asset categories 37 Investment funds remain the main players in the market 39 No location was spared by the downturn but Paris Center West and the Inner Suburbs have shown better resilience 42 Prime yields lower in several markets CONCLUSION This report has been written by Catella based on information from MBE Conseil and Catella Property. The assessment was concluded on March 2021. This report is based on information that we believe is reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any guarantee that it contains no factual errors and accept no responsibility for any liabilities that may arise as a result of such errors. Photo credits: Shoootin / Mateya Lux / Elise Robaglia / Laurent de Broca / Luc Boegly / Maurine Tric / Unsplach / Pexels Legally responsible publishers: Isabelle Ramond and Jérôme Kaplan Design by: www.thalamus-ic.fr To subscribe to Catella’s research, please email your request to: [email protected] INTRODUCTION MAIN TRENDS ECONOMY: UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN Drop in employment in France: 29.3% en 2020 Drop in corporate margins in 2020 vs - 1.8% 8% en 2020 + 2.1% in 2019 Unemployment rate: vs 7.9% en 2019 vs 8.5% en 2018 Limited impact on employment levels in 2020. Rise in job losses in 2021? Fear of an increase in 2021 Estimated growth rate: 2022 rate: - 8.3% + 5% + 5% in 2020 in 2021 RENTAL MARKET TAKES A HIT… BUT INVESTMENT MARKET RESILIENT 01. RENTAL MARKET: sharp downturn in take-up, rising vacancies, no impact on headline rents in IDF Decrease in take-up: drop in take-up under - 36% 5,000 sq.m 1,321,000 sq.m drop in take-up over - 54% 5,000 sq.m - 45% in 2020 decrease in large-surface (drop similar to 1990 crisis) - 46% preletting Vacancy Sharp increase in Oversupply in La Défense, rate in 4.2 % vacancy in Paris PériDéfense and Paris: (6.4 % in Île-de-France) the Emerging North FUTURE 823,000 sq.m Increase SUPPLY: under construction but not yet from 2022 commercialised of + 27% €789/sq.m average rent for new buildings €930/sq.m RENTS top rental value in Paris in Paris CBD, driven upwards RISE 7.5 % CBD IN PARIS CBD by higher top values in 2020 4 Property Market Trends – France – March 2021 02. INVESTMENT MARKET: downturn less severe than in the rental market LOWER investment volume RETURN TO A LEVEL €23.6 Bn in 2020 CLOSE TO THE TEN-YEAR AVERAGE (€ 25.3 Bn) (- 38 % compared to 2019) SEVENTH YEAR WITH MORE THAN - 29% €20 BILLION INVESTED IN INVESTMENT IN PARIS CBD FRANCE 5 TRANSACTIONS 59 % valued over €500 Mn, (i.e. €3.8 Bn in 2020), representing 16% of total investment volume US / CAN / GB Continued strong transaction activity in the 20 % GERMANY €100 – €300 Mn range 10 % -10% compared to 2019 60 TRANSACTIONS French investors represent the largest share between €100 – €300 Mn. in 2020 of investment volume, ahead of North American, UK representing 49% of total investment volume and German investors. No direct Asian investments PRIME YIELD IN PARIS IN 2020 2.8% 3% threshold broken SUMMARY DATA Office market in Île-de-France in 2020 TOTAL STOCK TAKE-UP VACANCY RATE TOP RENT PRIME RENT sq.m sq.m % €/sq.m/p.a % Paris CBD 8,796,300 229,000 4.00 % 930 2.80 % West CBD 7,249,700 294,000 9.00 % 540 3.25 % Paris secondary BDs 4,188,500 92,000 4.40 % 595 3.40 % Emerging North 2,867,900 115,000 14.40 % 430 3.80 % East District 1,631,500 32,000 2.40 % 360 4.20 % South District 1,871,300 48,000 5.90 % 360 3.67 % Boucle Nord 780,500 16,000 12.70 % 260 5.40 % PériDéfense 4,082,600 159,000 12.9 % 430 4.10 % Greater Paris 58,445,300 1,321,000 6.30 % - - Source: MBE Conseil/Catella Property/Knight Frank/Immostat Property Market Trends – France – March 2021 5 The crisis has shown that there is still a future for offices: not only as a workplace, but as a place of socialising and exchanges. Géraldine Latham Head of Corporate – Partner » 01 The Île-de-France office rentalmarket office Find the complete analysis of the rental market by Géraldine Latham, interviewed by Catherine Bocquet – Editor-in-Chief of Immoweek. Scan the QR code to play the podcast. 01 | RENTAL MARKET SUBMARKETS Île-de-France office stock: 58.4 million sq.m in 2020 Airport Railway C Roissy Charles de Gaulle Boucle Nord Railway B du 92 ST DENIS ASNIÈRES Pôle A 86 Emerging North COLOMBES CLICHY Railway A La Défense PANTIN LEVALLOIS NANTERRE East district NEUILLY PériDéfense Paris SURESNES CBD PARIS MONTREUIL RUEIL-MALMAISON VINCENNES West CBD Railway A BOULOGNE- BILLANCOURT ISSY-LES- MOULINEAUX MONTROUGE South district IVRY-SUR-SEINE Railway C A 86 Railway B Airport Orly Paris CBD La Défense South district Stock: 8.8 million sq.m Stock: 3.4 million sq.m Stock: 1.9 million sq.m Paris Secondary BDs Emerging North Boucle Nord 92 Stock: 4.2 million sq.m Stock: 2.9 million sq.m Stock: 780 500 sq.m Other West CBD PériDéfense East district Stock: 3.8 million sq.m Stock: 4.1 million sq.m Stock: 1.6 million sq.m 8 Property Market Trends – France – March 2021 With a total stock of more than 58.4 million square > The West CBD, which includes La Défense, is the meters, the office market in the Île-de-France region second most developed market. It also consists is among the best organized and most “readable” in of the cities of Neuilly-sur-Seine, Levallois-Perret, Europe, as well as being among the most diversified. Boulogne-Billancourt, and Issy-les-Moulineaux. Office The office stock is largely centered around Line A of stock has reached more than 7.2 million sq.m – about the RER regional railway network, which forms the 12% of the total in Île-de-France – of which more than transportation backbone for the Île-de-France office half is located within La Défense. market as a whole. Away from the established business districts (ie., all of the Paris business districts and the > There are three Secondary Business Districts within West CBD), suburban areas are currently organized Paris: the Front de Seine and Montparnasse districts primarily around the main transportation networks: in the 14th and 15th arrondissements, and the Gare de namely, the Boulevard Périphérique ring road that Lyon / Bercy / Paris Rive Gauche hubs in the 12th and encircles Paris and the A86 secondary ring road, as 13th arrondissements, with a combined stock of well as the various metro, RER and tram lines. 4.2 million sq.m. The Île-de-France region’s public transportation network > The Emerging North consists of the cities of Clichy, has generally been designed in a radius, with Paris at Saint-Ouen, Saint-Denis and Aubervilliers. Its office its center. However, this will change a great deal in the stock has grown significantly in recent years to reach coming years with the gradual rollout of the extensive 2.9 million sq.m in 2020 and offers high growth Grand Paris Express project, a new-high speed metro potential due to numerous ongoing or proposed network that will serve most inner suburbs without projects. going through Paris. Four fully-automated metro lines will be created along 200 kilometers of tracks, > The East District is centered around the city of serving 68 stations, some of which are presently under Montreuil and extends southwards to Charenton construction. In addition to this network, which will be and northwards to Pantin. Its stock has reached put into service in progressive stages until 2030, other 1.6 million sq.m in 2020. public transportation projects are being developed. The most important of these are the extension of metro > The South District extends from Vanves to line 14 northwards to Pleyel and southwards to Orly Ivry-sur-Seine via Montrouge. The district also includes airport, as well as the extension of the “Eole” train line Châtillon, where most offices are located near the (RER E) to La Défense and Nanterre. Châtillon – Montrouge metro and tram station. It stock now totals 1.9 million sq.m. The Grand Paris Express network is unlikely to fundamentally change the nature of the Paris office > PériDéfense includes the cities whose markets have market, at least in the short term. However, it will benefit benefited in part from their proximity to the La Défense many of the established submarkets, in particular the business district: Nanterre, Rueil-Malmaison, Colombes, areas of Nanterre (through the “Eole” RER line E Bois-Colombes, La Garenne-Colombes, Suresnes and extension in mid-2023); La Défense, (same, plus metro the areas of Courbevoie and Puteaux not incorporated line 15 in 2030); Saint-Denis and Clichy-Saint-Ouen within La Défense.
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