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Uranium Raw Material for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Uranium Raw Material for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Exploration, Mining, Production, Supply and Demand, Economics and Environmental Issues (URAM-2018) Supply and Demand, Economics Environmental Uranium Raw Material for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Exploration, Mining, Production, Uranium Raw Material for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Exploration, Mining, Production, Supply and Demand, Economics and Environmental Issues (URAM-2018) Proceedings of an International Symposium Vienna, Austria, 25–29 June 2018 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA URANIUM RAW MATERIAL FOR THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE: EXPLORATION, MINING, PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES (URAM-2018) The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’. PROCEEDINGS SERIES URANIUM RAW MATERIAL FOR THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE: EXPLORATION, MINING, PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES (URAM-2018) PROCEEDINGS OF AN INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ORGANIZED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY IN COOPERATION WITH THE OECD NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY AND THE WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION AND HELD IN VIENNA, 25–29 JUNE 2018 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 2020 COPYRIGHT NOTICE All IAEA scientific and technical publications are protected by the terms of the Universal Copyright Convention as adopted in 1952 (Berne) and as revised in 1972 (Paris). The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual property. Permission to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications in printed or electronic form must be obtained and is usually subject to royalty agreements. Proposals for non-commercial reproductions and translations are welcomed and considered on a case-by-case basis. Enquiries should be addressed to the IAEA Publishing Section at: Marketing and Sales Unit, Publishing Section International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre PO Box 100 1400 Vienna, Austria fax: +43 1 26007 22529 tel.: +43 1 2600 22417 email: [email protected] www.iaea.org/publications © IAEA, 2020 Printed by the IAEA in Austria December 2020 STI/PUB/1925 IAEA Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Names: International Atomic Energy Agency. Title: Uranium raw material for the nuclear fuel cycle : exploration, mining, production, supply and demand, economics and environmental issues (URAM-2018) / International Atomic Energy Agency. Description: Vienna : International Atomic Energy Agency, 2020. | Series: Proceedings series (International Atomic Energy Agency), ISSN 0074–1884 | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: IAEAL 20-01376 | ISBN 978-92-0-130620-3 (paperback : alk. paper) | ISBN 978-92-0-130720-0 (pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Uranium industry — Congresses. | Uranium. | Nuclear fuels. | Uranium as fuel — Congresses. | Uranium mines and mining — Congresses. Classification: UDC 622.349.5 | STI/PUB/ 1925 FOREWORD In 2005, 2009 and 2014, the IAEA hosted international symposia on uranium production and raw material for the nuclear fuel cycle to discuss all aspects of uranium raw material for the fuel cycle to ensure the long term sustainability of nuclear power programmes. Since 2014, in response to a challenging economic environment, the industry has been seeking new and innovative ways to improve efficiencies in producing uranium. Since 2016, the long term median forecast has been for growth of nuclear power worldwide, leading to an eventual increase in uranium demand and in turn in the price of uranium. In the past few years, uranium production has been nearly meeting demand and less of the secondary supply have been used, leading to historically low spot prices for uranium oxide. This has resulted in decreased exploration activity, and some mines have been placed in ‘care and maintenance’. Looking forward, there may be a reduction in the availability of secondary uranium supplies. This, combined with the exhaustion of some active uranium mines, means that the uranium resource base and global production capacity will need to be further advanced in order to meet current and future demand. The current oversupply from primary production could potentially lead to undersupply or primary production in the medium to long term. Owing to long lead times from discovery to production, re-evaluation of uranium resources is needed now. The International Symposium on Uranium Raw Material for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Exploration, Mining, Production, Supply and Demand, Economics and Environmental Matters (URAM–2018) was held in Vienna on 25–29 June 2018. The purpose of the symposium was to analyse uranium supply–demand scenarios and to present and discuss new developments in uranium geology, exploration, mining, milling and processing, as well as environmental requirements for uranium operations and site decommissioning. This publication provides a summary of the conference, keynote presentations, the major findings and conclusions of the sessions, and the opening and closing addresses. The accompanying supplementary files, available on-line, include the individual technical papers. The IAEA officers responsible for this publication were M. Fairclough, P. Woods and B. Moldovan of the Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology. EDITORIAL NOTE The contents of this publication have not been edited by the editorial staff of the IAEA. The views expressed remain the responsibility of the named authors or participants. In addition, the views are not necessarily those of the governments of the nominating Member States or of the nominating organizations. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of information contained in this publication, neither the IAEA nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from its use. The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. The authors are responsible for having obtained the necessary permission for the IAEA to reproduce, translate or use material from sources already protected by copyrights. Material prepared by authors who are in contractual relation with governments is copyrighted by the IAEA, as publisher, only to the extent permitted by the appropriate national regulations. Any accompanying material has been prepared from the original material as submitted by the authors. The IAEA has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third party Internet web sites referred to in this book and does not guarantee that any content on any such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. CONTENTS SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................ 1 OPENING SESSION ............................................................................................................................ 32 WELCOME ADDRESS AND OPENING REMARKS ....................................................................... 34 Y. AMANO OPENING REMARKS ......................................................................................................................... 35 M. CUNEY OPENING REMARKS ......................................................................................................................... 37 P. WOODS WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION 2017 FUEL REPORT ............................................................. 38 O. SKORLYAKOVA NUCLEAR ENERGY AND URANIUM: LOOKING TO THE FUTURE ......................................... 39 L. GRANCEA THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL FUEL INVENTORIES ON FORWARD URANIUM PRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 40 N. CARTER FOUNDATIONAL FUELS OF THE 21ST CENTURY: EVOLVING SOCIOECONOMICS OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS ......................................................................................... 43 H. TULSIDAS URANIUM ONE DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK ................................................................................ 44 V. KONSTANTINOV, A. SHUTOV, A. BOYTSOV CLOSING SESSION ............................................................................................................................ 46 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF URANIUM PRODUCTION: STATUS, PROSPECTS, CHALLENGES ............................................................................................................. 48 A. BOYTSOV WORLD URANIUM RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION ................................................................ 50 A. HANLY , L. GRANCEA HARMONY — THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR DELIVERING ITS POTENTIAL .................................................................................................................................. 51 A. RISING,
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