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Aktienyt Royal Unibrew Aktienyt Royal Unibrew Sælg Sommervejret luner på bundlinjen Uændret Vi fastholder Salgs-anbefalingen på Royal Unibrew. Efter en stærk højsæson Aktuel kurs: opjusterer Royal Unibrew forventningerne til årets resultat betydeligt. Royal Unibrew viser en imponerende evne til at løfte indtjeningen og navigere sikkert 951,00 DKK igennem markeder med udfordrende forretningsvilkår. Med dagens kursstig- ning er det dog vores vurdering, at det kortsigtede afkastpotentiale er udtømt. Begivenhed: Indtjeningen bruser over allerede i første halvdel af højsæsonen 2. kvartalsregnskab Omsætningen i 2. kvartal 2014 på 1.725 mio. kr. er 3,3% bedre, end vi havde ventet. Det er specielt omsætningen i Vesteuropa, der overrasker positivt i forhold til vores salgsestimater. Resultatet af primær drift (EBIT) lander på 318 mio. kr., hvilket er markant over vores estimat Seneste analyse: på 230 mio. kr. Indtjeningsfremgangen er drevet af godt sommervejr, forskydninger i salget mod dyrere produkter og hurtigere gennemførte effektiviseringer i Finland. Royal Unibrew 30/04/14 – Høj værdiansættel- se begrænser potentialet opjusterer forventningerne til 2014 i kølvandet på den gode højsæson. Royal Unibrew venter nu en omsætning i intervallet 5.950-6.100 mio. kr. mod tidligere 5.750-6.050 mio. kr. Indtje- ningsprognosen for 2014 får også et markant løft, og Royal Unibrew ser nu EBIT i intervallet 790-840 mio. kr. mod tidligere 665-715 mio. kr. Vi ser god mulighed for, at selskabet lander Kalender: i den øvre ende af både salgs- og indtjeningsprognosen. 26/11/14 – 3. kvartalsregnskab Stærk udvikling i overskudsgraden i Vesteuropa Omsætningen i Vesteuropa er 7% bedre, end vi havde ventet. Indtjeningen er til gengæld hele 33% bedre, end vi havde estimeret. Godt sommervejr kombineret med øget salg af premiumprodukter varmer op under Royal Unibrews indtjeningsevne i regionen. Overskuds- Forventet opdatering: graden i Vesteuropa lander på 21,4% i 2. kvartal 2014, hvilket svarer til en fremgang på 4,8%-point i forhold til niveauet i 2. kvartal 2013. Vi bemærker dog, at driftsresultatet i no- Kvartalsvist gen grad er påvirket positivt af en periodeforskydning af markedsføringsaktiviteter fra første til andet halvår. Vi løfter vores indtjeningsestimat for Vesteuropa-regionen betydeligt i køl- vandet på 2. kvartalsregnskabet, og venter en rekordhøj overskudsgrad i årets 3. kvartal. Hurtig udrulning af effektiviseringer skærmer mod et svagt finsk marked Omsætningen i Nordøsteuropa i 2. kvartal 2014 er 2,2% bedre, end vi havde estimeret. Re- sultatet af primær drift på 142,1 mio. kr. i Nordøsteuropa-regionen er hele 47,2% bedre, end vi havde forventet. Overskudsgraden lander på 16,6% i forhold til vores estimat på 11,5%. Den stærke overskudsgrad er dog væsentligt positivt påvirket en forskydning af markedsfø- ringsaktiviteter fra første til andet halvår. Det finske marked er ramt af afgiftsstigninger, ne- gativ økonomisk vækst og lav forbrugertillid, men hurtigere effektiviseringer af den finske forretning skærmer mod denne udvikling. Vi forventer ikke bedre markedsvilkår i Finland i de kommende kvartaler, men Royal Unibrew vil fortsat kunne høste nogle effektiviseringsgevin- ster. Værdiansættelsen afspejler den stærke indtjeningsevne. Vi ser kun et begrænset afkastpotentiale fra det nuværende kursniveau. Effektiviseringspo- tentialet vil aftage kraftigt i de kommende kvartaler. Dermed skal Royal Unibrew i stigende grad kæmpe med at øge salget i markeder med udfordrende forretningsvilkår, hvis selska- bet vil øge indtjeningen fra det nuværende niveau. Royal Unibrew handler med udgangs- punkt i vores estimater på en EV/EBITDA-multipel på 9,2x i 2015. Vi foretrækker konkurren- ten Carlsberg (Køb), der handler på en EV/EBITDA-multipel på 7,1x i 2015. Royal Unibrew, Nr. 05 / 2014 Morten Imsgard Senioranalytiker tlf. +45 74 37 44 49 [email protected] 15-08-2014, kl.: 13:35 sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 1/3 Kursudvikling, resultater og Sydbanks forventninger Mio. DKK 2K 2013 2K 2014 2013 2014E 2015E Omsætning 1.042 1.725 4.481 6.059 6.207 EBIT (primær drift) 164 318 560 819 857 Ordinært resultat før skat 169 323 548 782 816 Nettoresultat 142 252 480 602 628 Egenkapital forrentning (%) - - 27,6% 26,3% 24,0% Soliditet (%) - - 30,8% 31,9% 34,4% EPS - udvandet 13,60 24,06 45,77 57,46 59,94 P/E - -16,116,615,9 EV/EBITDA - - 13,6 9,7 9,2 Indre værdi - - 203,6 234,1 265,1 Yield - - 0,0% 2,8% 3,0% Markedsværdi : 9,9 mia. DKK. Likviditet : Middel Regnskabsår : 01.01 - 31.12 Fondskode : 1024299 Seneste udbytte : 0.0 kr. pr. aktie Reuterkode : RBREW.CO Forretningsområde Omsætning og indtjening Royal Unibrew markedsfører, sælger, distribuerer og producerer kvalitetsdrikkevarer med 3000 fokus på mærkevarer primært inden for øl, malt- og læskedrikke. Selskabets produkter afsæt- 2500 tes på ca. 65 markeder. De primære markeder er Danmark, Finland og de baltiske lande. Derudover har Royal Unibrew en væsentlig eksportafsætning primært til Tyskland og Italien. I 2000 Italien er selskabet markedsledende indenfor stærkøl-segmentet med deres Ceres Strong Ale 1500 brand. Endelig er koncernen en central aktør på de internationale maltdrikmarkeder med flere Mio. kr.1000 førende maltdrik brands. 500 0 Risici Middel Vesteuropa Nordøsteuropa Maltdrikke Ikke fordelt -500 Politikernes valg af afgifts- samt emballagepolitik er med til at øge usikkerheden omkring Omsætning EBIT salget af øl og læskedrikke. Tilstedeværelsen på flere forskellige markeder reducerer dog denne risiko for koncernen. Vejret har indflydelse på afsætningen af koncernens produkter. USD-følsomhed: Lav Dårligt vejr, specielt i sommerens højsæsonmåneder, kan have negativ effekt på årets salg. Rentedækning 11,36 Valuta-eksponering målt ved omsætningsfordeling i 2013 Vesteuropa: 59,1% Nordøsteuropa: 32,4% Øvrige: 8,5% 2-faktor dividende model - til illustration af kursforventninger Kurs 713,25 (-25%) 951,00 1188,75 (+25%) Forudsætninger Højvækst periode (antal år) 1 år 1 år 1 år Vækst på 15% p.a. og afkastkrav 7,6% Vækst (% pr. år) 5,0% 5,3% 7,0% Høj vækst i 15 år og afkastkrav 7,6% Afkastkrav (%) 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% Høj vækst i 15 år og 15% p.a. vækst Konkurrenceparametre Gen. score: 3,0 Selskabets forventninger Leverandører 4 Royal Unibrew forventer, at nettoom- Stor forhandlingskraft overfor leverandører af overvejende standardiserede og landbrugs- sætningen lander i intervallet 5.950- relaterede råvarer. Valget af råvarer og fremstillingsprocesser er afgørende for ølkvaliteten. 6.100 mio. kr. Substitut 3 Resultat af primær drift (EBIT) forven- Andre alkoholiske- og non-alkoholiske drikke er substitutter. Skift i forbrugsmønstre, beskat- tes at lande i intervallet 790-840 mio. ning, emballage, vejrforhold og distribution m.m. har indflydelse på ølsalget. kr. i 2014 inklusive engangsomkost- Indgangsbarrierer 3 ninger på ca. 50 mio. kr. relateret til restrukturering i Finland. Relativt høje barrierer på de etablerede markeder trods en forholdsvis fragmenteret struktur på Ændring i indtjening pr. aktie flere af disse, mens barriererne på emerging markets er lavere grundet et beskedent ølsalg. Kunder 3 Før Nu Ændring Detailsegmentet er præget af storkunder, der har stor forhandlingsmagt. Inden for restaurati- 2014E 46,53 57,46 23,5% onsbranchen spilles bryggerierne i mindre omfang også ud mod hinanden. 2015E 54,08 59,94 10,8% Intensitet 2 Hård priskonkurrence på flere markeder. I et modent ølmarked er fokus primært på at vinde Relativ performance (OMX) markedsandele fra konkurrenterne via markedsføring og priskonkurrence. 1M 3M 12M Scoreingsintervallet er på 1-5. En høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk position. 1,5% -2,9% 20,0% sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 2/3 Almindelige oplysninger om udarbejdelse af analyser i Sydbank Denne analyse er udarbejdet af Sydbanks aktieanalyseafdeling, som er en del af Sydbank Markets, en forretningsenhed i Sydbank. Sydbank er under tilsyn af Finanstilsy- net. Sydbank har udarbejdet procedurer, der skal forebygge og forhindre interessekonflikter og sikre, at de udarbejdede analyser har en høj standard og er baseret på objektiv og uafhængig analyse. Disse procedurer er indarbejdet i forretningsgangene, der omfatter aktieanalyseaktiviteterne i Sydbank. Finansielle modeller og metoder anvendt i denne analyse De anbefalinger og holdninger, der udtrykkes i denne analyse er dannet på basis af en kombination af Discounted Cash Flow-analyse, branchekendskab, peer-group ana- lyse samt selskabsspecifikke og markedstekniske elementer (begivenheder der påvirker både selskabets finansielle og driftsmæssige profil). Analysens omsætnings- og indtjeningsestimater er baseret på segmenterede modeller under anvendelse af subjektive vurderinger af relevante fremtidige markedstendenser og konjunkturforventnin- ger. De heraf fremkomne resultater er samlet i en værdiansættelsesmodel, som også tager højde for den seneste udvikling i historiske rapporter. Endvidere tages der højde for selskabets egne samt konkurrerende selskabers forventninger. Risikovurdering og følsomhed En vurdering af de væsentligste risikoforhold og en kategorisering af risikoen (lav, middel eller høj) i forbindelse med anbefalingerne og holdningerne til denne analyse, her- under en følsomhedsanalyse, er gengivet i den senest udsendte Aktienyt på dette selskab. Heraf fremgår ligeledes en vurdering af selskabets konkurrenceposition, som scores på en skala fra 1 til 5, hvor en høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk konkurrenceposition. De anførte risikofaktorer og følsomhedsanalysen kan dog ikke anses for at være udtømmende. Valutakursrisiko Såfremt aktiekursen
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