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WA Iron Ore Profile – January 2019 1

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WA Iron Ore Profile – January 2019 1 Western Australia Iron Ore Profile January 2019 THE WORLD IRON ORE MARKET Major global iron ore producers: 2017 Western Australia is the largest iron ore producer and exporter in the world, Western Australia accounting for 38% of global production Brazil and 56% of global seaborne exports in China 2017. Brazil is the second largest iron ore India producer and exporter in the world, Russia accounting for 17% of global production South Africa and 23% of global seaborne exports in 2017. Ukraine China (14%), India (7%) and Russia (5%) Iran are major global iron ore producers, but USA retain most of their production for Canada domestic steel production. China’s iron ore production rose 1% to 0Mt 200Mt 400Mt 600Mt 800Mt 1000Mt 302 million tonnes in 2017, following three Exported Consumed domestically/stockpiled successive years of decline since peaking Source: CRU, Iron Ore Market Outlook Statistical Review. at 506 million tonnes in 2013. China’s iron ore demand 1200Mt China accounted for 72% of global iron ore seaborne imports and 50% of global crude steel production in 2017. 1000Mt China’s iron ore imports rose 5% to 1,061 million tonnes in 2017. 800Mt China’s crude steel production fell 3% to 846 million tonnes in 2017. Around 1.4 600Mt tonnes of iron ore is used to make one tonne of crude steel. 400Mt CRU forecasts China’s iron ore imports to fall gradually over the next few years to 200Mt 1,022 million tonnes in 2022. Japan and South Korea were the next 0Mt 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 largest global iron ore importers in 2017. Demand is relatively stable in these Iron ore imports Crude steel production markets. Source: CRU, Iron Ore Market Outlook Statistical Review. Iron ore1 and steel product2 prices The rapid growth in China’s iron ore US$180/t 180 index demand led a rise in the iron ore price from US$28 a tonne in 1999-00 to US$160/t 160 index US$173 a tonne in 2007-08, and US$140/t 140 index averaged US$129 a tonne from 2008-09 to 2013-14. US$120/t 120 index The subsequent supply response, mainly US$100/t 100 index from Western Australia, and a slowdown in China’s demand, saw the iron ore price US$80/t 80 index fall 42% in 2014-15 and 28% in 2015-16. US$60/t 60 index The iron ore price rose 35% to US$70 a tonne in 2016-17 as China’s demand for US$40/t 40 index higher-grade ore rose, but fell 0.2% to US$20/t 20 index $US70 a tonne in 2017-18. Steel product prices in China rose 27% in 2017-18. US$0/t 0 index The iron ore price is forecast3 to be 1997-98 2002-03 2007-08 2012-13 2017-18 US$66 a tonne in 2018-19 and US$62 a Iron ore Steel product index tonne in 2019-20. 1 Annual average China spot price in nominal US dollars, cost and freight (CFR). 2 Annual average China steel product price index (2007-08 = In December 2018, the iron ore price fell 100.0). 6% to US$69 a tonne and steel product Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets; CEIC, China Premium Database; and 3 WA Government 2018-19 Mid-year Financial Projections Statement, December 2018. prices fell 7%. WA Iron Ore Profile – January 2019 1 Western Australia Iron Ore Profile January 2019 WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S COMPETITIVENESS Estimated1 iron ore resources Western Australia has large iron ore 60Bt 120yrs reserves, accounting for 29% of the world’s crude iron ore reserves in 2017.2 50Bt 100yrs Western Australia had an estimated 52 billion tonnes of economic 40Bt 80yrs demonstrated iron ore resource in 30Bt 60yrs 2017-18, which could sustain current production for 60 years. 20Bt 40yrs Western Australia’s reserves had an 10Bt 20yrs average iron content of 48% in 2017, below the world average of 49% and 0Bt 0yrs Brazil’s 52%.2 1997-98 2002-03 2007-08 2012-13 2017-18 Western Australia’s iron ore production Economic demonstrated resource (billion tonnes) had an average iron content of 62% in Resource life (years of production) 2017, below the world average of 63% 2 and Brazil’s 64%. 1 Based on Western Australia’s share of Australian iron ore production. 2 US Geological Survey. 3 Compound annual growth rate. Source: ABS 5204.0 Australian System of National Accounts. Western Australia’s iron ore exploration expenditure fell 3% to $274 million in 2017-18, compared with an annual decline3 of 4% over the past ten years. Total cash cost1 of seaborne iron ore exports: 2017 Western Australia’s iron ore miners are South Africa US$24.3/t among the world’s lowest cost seaborne Brazil US$25.4/t iron ore exporters. 1 Venezuela US$27.1/t The average total cash cost of Western Australia’s iron ore exports was US$27.1 Western Australia US$27.1/t a tonne in 2017, below the world average Kazakhstan US$29.4/t of US$28.9 a tonne, although behind South Africa, Brazil and Venezuela. Sweden US$29.5/t Western Australia’s major iron ore ports Mauritania US$33.5/t are close to the largest iron ore markets in Peru US$36.0/t Asia, reducing shipping costs relative to some of its competitors. Russia US$36.2/t Western Australia’s average iron ore spot India US$37.7/t freight rate to China and Japan rose 31% US$0/t US$10/t US$20/t US$30/t US$40/t to US$6.2 a tonne in 2016-17, well below 1 Price normalised total cash cost in US dollars, cost and freight (CFR), whereby production costs for different iron ore products are adjusted to a Brazil’s rate of US$12.2 a tonne. benchmark product (62% Fe fines) based on price differentials. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Mine Economics Model. Major iron ore export markets Western Australia’s iron ore industry has 700Mt established long-term trade relationships with major Asian steel makers and trading 600Mt companies. 500Mt Almost 83% of Western Australia’s iron ore exports went to China in 2017-18, with 400Mt exports up 4% to 693 million tonnes. 300Mt Western Australia’s iron ore exports to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan fell by a 200Mt combined 7 million tonnes in 2017-18, offset by an 11 million tonne rise to all 100Mt other countries (mainly India and Vietnam). 0Mt 1997-98 2002-03 2007-08 2012-13 2017-18 In 2017, Western Australia accounted for over half of the iron ore imported by China Japan, South Korea & Taiwan All other countries(a) China (64%), Japan (53%), (a) Includes mainly India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Hong Kong (SAR of China). South Korea (68%) and Taiwan (70%). Source: ABS 5368.0 International Trade in Goods and Services. WA Iron Ore Profile – January 2019 2 Western Australia Iron Ore Profile January 2019 WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S SUPPLY Iron ore sales volumes 900Mt After years of strong growth, the growth in 800Mt Western Australia’s iron ore sales is 700Mt slowing as recently completed projects ramp-up to full production. 600Mt In 2017-18, Western Australia’s iron ore sales rose 4% to 826 million tonnes, 500Mt below annual average growth1 of 11% 400Mt over the past ten years. Iron ore sales were 291 million tonnes in 2007-08. 300Mt Western Australia’s annual iron ore sales 2 200Mt are forecast to rise to 847 million tonnes by 2021-22. 100Mt Western Australia produced mainly iron ore fines (73%) in 2017, followed by lump 0Mt 2002-03 2007-08 2012-13 2017-18 (24%) and concentrate (2%). 1 Compound annual growth rate. Source: WA Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety, Resource Data Files; and 2 WA Government 2018-19 Mid-year Financial Projections Statement, December 2018. Major iron ore miners’ sales123 Western Australia’s major iron ore miners 400Mt Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) are the largest global iron 350Mt ore producers behind Vale from Brazil. 300Mt Rio Tinto (360Mtpa) and BHP (290Mtpa) are currently increasing mine production 250Mt to utilise additional rail and port capacity developed over recent years, and need to 200Mt develop new mines by 2021 to sustain 150Mt production or reach production targets. Rio Tinto’s iron ore sales1 rose 2% to 100Mt 338Mt in 2018 and its sales guidance for 2019 is 338-350Mt. 50Mt BHP’s iron ore sales1 rose 2% to 274Mt in 0Mt 2018 and its production guidance for 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-19 is 273-283Mt. Rio Tinto BHP FMG FMG’s iron ore sales1 fell 0.5% to 168Mt in 2018 and its sales guidance for 2018-19 1 Western Australian operations. 2 Wet tonnes. 3 Inclusive of third party tonnes. Source: Company production reports. is 165-173Mt. Major iron ore export ports Port Hedland is the world’s largest bulk export port, while Cape Lambert and Port Hedland Dampier are also major bulk export ports. Port Hedland (57%) exported most of Western Australia’s iron ore in 2017-18, followed by Cape Lambert (22%), Cape Lambert Dampier (16%) and other ports (5%). Port Hedland’s iron ore exports rose 3% to 481Mt in 2017-18. Cape Lambert’s iron Dampier ore exports rose 5% to 182Mt in 2017-18. Dampier’s iron ore exports rose 8% to 134Mt in 2017-18.
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